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Prospects the Blue Jays may need to protect from Rule 5 Draft

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In three weeks, from December 8-11, front office personnel from the 30 major league teams will converge on San Diego for the 2014 Winter Meetings for the annual flurry of activity. On the last day of the Winter Meetings will be the 2014 Rule 5 Draft. In advance of that, however, clubs must set their 40-man rosters by this Thursday, November 20--thus tomorrow will be the last day to protect players from being subject to selection in the Rule 5 Draft.

With the signing of Russell Martin, the Blue Jays' 40-man roster is now full, meaning that that if they would like to protect players not currently on the roster, they would need to open up a spot today or tomorrow in order to add them. If they wish to pick someone in the draft from another team, they would need to open up a spot before December 11. Last season, the Blue Jays released Thad Weber (allowing him to sign in Korea) the day before the draft, during which they selected Brian Moran (who was immediately traded to the Angels for international cap space).

Fortunately, by virtue of the in-season promotions of Aaron Sanchez and Dalton Pompey, both 2010 draftees out of high school, the Blue Jays have already protected the two prospects in their first-time eligible Rule 5 class who absolutely required protection. As will be discussed below, there are others who could, and perhaps should, be protected, but none are not shoo-ins like the duo above.

Primer on Major League Rule 5

But we should first go through a quick primer on Major League Rule 5. Its basic goal is to prevent teams from unduly stockpiling talent in the minors without giving the players a shot at the majors.

The timelines for Rule 5 eligibility are quite complex, but as a basic guideline, high school draftees and international free agents are first eligible four years after signing, with college players being eligible three years after signing (the actual division is based on age at signing, see this entry from 2012 for more details). For 2014, this means HS draftees and IFAs from 2010 and college players signed in 2011. In addition, all players who were previously Rule 5 eligible remain eligible, unless they are likewise added. This includes minor league free agents signed prior to the Rule 5 draft and former major leaguers who have been outrighted off the 40-man roster.

The draft itself consists of three phases: the major league phase, the triple-A phase, and the double-A phase. In the major league phase, major league teams can select eligible players from other organizations who are not on a 40-man roster for $50,000. That chosen player would have to remain on the 25-man (active) roster for the entire subsequent season, with a minimum of 90 active days, or be offered back to the original team. If the player fails to reach 90 active days, he will have to remain on the 25-man roster in subsequent seasons until he reaches an aggregate of 90 active days. The minor league phases of the draft is much less important and generally is just used to fill out rosters.

Rule 5-Eligible Players

Below are tables showing the Jays' 2014 first time eligible players not currently on the 40-man and their previously eligible players, as well as some pertinent info (minor league levels are only those within the Jays system):

2014 First-Time Eligible Players
NamePos.DOBAgeAcquiredBonus201420132012
Jon BertiSS1/22/1990242011 Draft (18)AAA+A/A+
Andy BurnsSS8/7/1990242011 Draft (11)$250,000AAAA/A+A
Adonys CardonaRHP1/16/1994202010 IFA$2,800,000ARkRk
Gabriel Cenas3B10/16/1993212010 IFA$750,000RkRkRk
Taylor ColeRHP8/20/1989252011 Draft (29)$50,000A+/AAA/A+A-
Seth ConnerC1/29/1992222010 Draft (41)$100,000A-/AA/A-Rk
Angel GomezRF1/12/1992222010 Draft (23)RkInjuredInjured
Francisco GracesquiLHP11/26/1991222011 NDFA$40,000A/A-RkRk
Blake McFarlandRHP2/2/1988262011 NDFAAA/A+A+A
Shane OpitzSS1/10/1992222010 Draft (11)$225,000A+/RkA+/AA
Arik SikulaRHP12/21/1988252011 Draft (36)A+/AAAA-
John StilsonRHP7/28/1990242011 Draft (3)$500,000AAAAAA/AAA+/AA
Dickie ThonSS11/16/1991222010 Draft (5)$1,500,000AA-Rk
Ben WhiteRHP5/10/1989252011 NDFAA+/AAAA-

2014 Previously Eligible Players
NamePos.DOBAgeAcquiredBonus201420132012
Ricky RomeroLHP11/6/1984292005 Draft (1)$2,400,000AAAAAA/MLBMLB
Brad GlennOF4/2/1987272009 Draft (23)AAA/MLBAA/AAAAA
Jack MurphyC4/6/1988262009 Draft (31)AA/AAAAA/AAAA+/AA
Kevin NolanSS12/13/1987262009 Draft (20)AA/AAAAAA+
Sean OchinkoC10/21/1987272009 Draft (11)AA/AAAAAA/AAAA/A+
Ryan Schimpf2B4/11/1988262009 Draft (5)$155,700AAA/AAAAA+/AA
Ryan TeperaRHP11/3/1987272009 Draft (19)AAAAAAA/A+
Tyler YbarraLHP12/11/1989242008 Draft (43)$100,000AAA+A
Danny BarnesRHP10/21/1989252010 Draft (35)A+A+/RkA+/AA
Andy Fermin2B7/27/1989252010 Draft (32)AA/A+A-A
K.C. Hobson1B8/22/1990242009 Draft (6)$500,000A+/AAA+A
Marcus KnechtLF6/21/1990242010 Draft (3s)$250,000A+A+A+
Casey LawrenceRHP10/28/1987272010 NDFAAAA+/AAA+/AA
Griffin MurphyLHP1/16/1991232010 Draft (2)$800,000A/A+ARk/A-
Matt NewmanLF9/20/1988262010 NDFAAA/A+A+A-
Carlos RamirezRHP4/24/1991232009 IFARk
Pierce RankinLF4/26/1989252010 Draft (38)A+/AAA+/AAA+/A
Chris SchaefferC11/19/1987262010 NDFAAA+/AAA/Rk
Brad AllenRHP3/26/1989252015 FAA
John AndersonLHP11/9/1988252015 FAAAA+Rk
Dustin AntolinRHP8/9/1989252015 FAAAAA/A+A+
Austin Bibens-DirkxRHP4/29/1985292015 FAAA/AAAA+/AA
Scott CopelandRHP12/15/1987262015 FAAA/AAAA+A+
Jonathan DiazSS4/10/1985292015 FAAAAAAA/AA
Jeff FrancisLHP1/8/1981332015 FA
Greg InfanteRHP7/10/1987272015 FAAA/AAA
Bobby KoreckyRHP9/16/1979352015 FAAAA/MLBAAAAAA/MLB
Michael LeeRHP11/18/1986272015 FAAA

Key Protection Decisions

There are definitely candidates to be removed from the 40-man to make room to protect several prospects, including but not limited to Cory Burns, Colt Hynes, Bo Schultz, Matt Hague, Kyle Drabek (who is out of options) and various non-tender candidates.

First-Time Eligible Players

In term of first-time eligible players currently unprotected, Andy Burns seems the most worthy of being protected, as well as the most likely to be selected by another team if not. At this point the consensus seems to be that he projects more as a second-division regular or bench player after a year-and-a-half of decent if unspectacular play in double-A following his breakout 2013 season in advance-A. However, that still has value, and the Blue Jays are thin on the infield.

The other really significant name is John Stilson, who is currently recovering from a torn labrum and won't be back until sometime in the spring. He's profiles as a reliever only, and with the injury and injury history it could be tough to justify tying up a spot despite the potential. At the same time, players will be allowed to be placed on the 60-day disabled list in early February, so Stilson's spot on the 40-man spot would be opened up, meaning it only needs to tied up for 9-10 weeks. Likewise, this could deter other teams from selecting him, though it would be really easy for a team in rebuild-mode who really like him to find a spot, shove him on the disabled list, and activate him in the second half to get in the 90 required days.

Two others worth mentioning are Jon Berti and Taylor Cole, although I don't think either of them will be added or selected. Berti is interesting as a primary second baseman with speed on the bases and decent on base skills, a grinder utility profile. Cole had a strong year in Dunedin after a lacklustre 2013, but putting him in the majors would be a big leap.

Additionally, Blake McFarland and Arik Sikula both had very impressive 2014 campaigns, reaching and succeeding in double-A and then performed very well in the recently completed Arizona Fall League. Despite that, I can't see either being protected or selected (a small chance of latter perhaps if a team got a really good look and really liked what they saw).

Finally, there's three players noteworthy for receiving very large signing bonuses: Adonys Cardona, Gabriel Cenas, Dickie Thon. None should or will be protected, and it's inconceivable any of them will be taken.

Previously Eligible Players

In terms of previously eligible players, there's really little to say. Gregory Infante had a great 2014, running his fastball into the mid-90s. Presumably, if another team wanted him badly they've have signed him as a free agent, but the Rule 5 could present an opportunity to bring into camp and see how he does. Ricky Romero is Ricky Romero, if some team wanted to eat his contract and take a chance, it would have happened already. Ryan Schimpf has been a strong performer with good power at double-A the last couple years but is not expected to be able to translate that into major league production. Danny Barnes was interesting until running into injuries, and the only non-free agent who had big league time is Brad Glenn. And Brad Glenn is, you know, Brad Glenn.

My gut prediction: Andy Burns will be added to the roster and protected at the expense of one of the DFA candidates mentioned above.


Do the Jays have an unlimited payroll?

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Is it possible that the Blue Jays have a potentially unlimited payroll this season? Bob McCown seems to think so.

Yesterday, on Prime Time Sports, Bob McCown said this (well not exactly this, blame a late night and a rather large glass of wine for transcription errors):

Blue Jays payroll will go up this year, how much is unclear. There may not be a real limit to it. There is a real sense that the new CEO of Rogers Communications, Guy Lawrence, I'm making some assumptions here, I don't want to say like it is a fact. But it seems as if he recognizes the potential importance to the corporation of the Blue Jays, perhaps more than the previous administrator. And also understands that the Blue Jays could be a conduit in improving the image of this company.

Some have suggested, not I, that Rogers is among the most disliked corporations in the country and it is understandable, because we get services from Rogers and anytime something goes wrong with those things we feel as though that's who we have to blame.

Let's face it, Rogers is a big big company. So it is understandable. But I think this CEO is trying to address that. (He) understands that one of the ways that you curry favor with your clientele is with a product like the Toronto Blue Jays.

Nobody has told me, that exactly, but the inference had been there, that if there is a deal on the table that would take the Jays beyond the increased they've already budgeted for. There is a confidence level that there would be no issue whatsoever. Like the Jon Lester deal. What I'm told about Lester is that money isn't the issue. Blue Jays are prepared to pay him market value, what he is looking for. It's years, he wants 7 years.

While McCown isn't saying there is no limit to the payroll (or at least I don't think that's what he is trying to say), he is saying that if the payroll is up against the limit that the Rogers sets and another deal presents itself, the Jays could still make the deal. If they can make the case that the player is a game changer.

He's saying that the new lead dog of Rogers understands that  I hate Rogers, you hate Rogers, everyone hates Rogers. Yes, I have a Rogers cell phone, yes I watch hockey on Rogers sports channels (and Rogers non sports channels) and yes, Rogers owns my favorite sports team, but I hate them.

Rogers can't win. They double the team payroll and they are still called cheap. No matter how much the Jays spend this year, people are going to say they should have spent more.

But, McCown thinks that, the new Rogers CEO figures that the way to improve Rogers image with you, me and everyone else, is to allow the Jays to spend enough to buy a winner. I don't know if that's really true. I mean, yeah, if Rogers buys a winner, I'll think better of them, but is the percentage of Jays fans in the general population large enough to make that big a difference to the country's feelings about Rogers Corp.

Is Lester the difference between playoffs and another year of being on the outside looking in? I don't know. Signing him can't hurt. It does seems that the reason we won't be signing Lester isn't dollars, it is years. Course if we are thinking we can ignore payroll limits, maybe we can ignore the stupid 5 year limit too. Not that the 5-year limit is all that bad in the abstract, with most players it is a good idea not to go more than 5 years, but then all teams think that you shouldn't go more than 5 years with most players. The thing is that most teams trust themselves to know which players that are worth more than 5 years. Sometimes they will be wrong, but then sometimes you'll be wrong not to go more than 5 years. If you don't trust your instincts, if you have to make rules to protect yourself from yourself, maybe you shouldn't be running a baseball team.

It does worry me that, we get a new CEO, and suddenly the team is allowed to spend. Next year? Maybe there is a new CEO and maybe he well take a dim view to the idea that team can spend as much as they like. It would be nice if Rogers could keep to the same philosophy, in regards to the Jays,  from year to year, we'd be much better off. One year we can add several high priced players, the next we have to pass the hat when we want to sign one more guy.

Anyway, as a Blue Jays fan, who would love to see the Jays make the playoffs again, I'm all for loosening the purse strings. Sign Lester. Find a left field who could fit with Bautista and Encarnacion to make us a strong offensive team again. Fix the bullpen. Do what it takes to fix all the holes.

As a realist, I know a business needs to set limits, but maybe the Jays could push the limits a little bit. Rogers doesn't need the Jays to make a profit every year. Spending more money won't guarantee a winner, but it can't hurt.

Nick Swisher has the Blue Jays on his no-trade list and Jo-Jo Reyes gets in trouble in Korea

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You can take a player to Toronto but you can't make him play

Late Tuesday night, SB Nation's wunderkind reporter Chris Cotillo reported that Nick Swisher has the Blue Jays on his no-trade list. One item can be considered a list, no?

Of course he does. Why wouldn't he? I am not privy to the no-trade lists of every major league player who has that clause in his contract, but it seems that a good 90-95% of them include Toronto. Thus I challenge you, Bluebird Banter readers, to find a current player who has a no-trade clause that excludes the Blue Jays.

Hell, I found out that even I have the Blue Jays in my contract with SB Nation--it just comes by default, apparently.

No-Trade Clause

Pitchers don't want to come to Toronto because of the difficulties of pitching in the AL East and the hitter-friendly home stadium, position players don't want to come to Toronto because of the artificial surface that causes knees to explode. And of course there's this whole issue with playing in Canada, a frikkin' monarchy headed by a queen that lives in another country, taxes, the LCBO, roaming charges, et cetera.

Putting my proud Torontonian ego aside, the appearance of Toronto on so many no-trade lists is a challenge that the Blue Jays front office would have to face when roster-building. (Not that I would want to see Swisher in a Jays uniform--this time it's not just about his face, he also just came off of a pretty awful age-33 season.) When the Jays' plans to acquire Koji Uehara and Ian Kinsler were vetoed, the team not only lost the two players but also the time and opportunity costs associated with hammering out the trades with the Rangers' front office. But it is part of being the only major league ballclub outside of the United States; the Blue Jays will just have to live with it. Until they start contending, of course, a strong team with a strong chance to get deep in the playoffs would be quite an incentive for these players to start waiving their right to block trades.

You can shoot all the Blue Jays you want but it is a sin to kill a Wyvern

This is slightly stale news but former Blue Jays fan-favourite pitcher Jo-Jo Reyes is in some trouble out in South Korea for desecrating the logo of the SK Wyverns of Incheon at a shooting range.

Unfortunately, the video has been deleted from his Instagram account but I'm sure no real video would be better than he one I've created for myself in my mind.

Reyes, who is somehow just 29, spent some time with the Orioles and Pirates after his illustrious period in Toronto (in which he broke a personal 28-start winless streak) before signing with the Wyverns of the KBO for the 2013 and 2014 seasons. Despite putting up some pretty horrible numbers this season in Korea, the Phillies (of course) invited him back stateside mid-summer to pitch for their triple-A club before releasing him a month later.

Just like seeing old high school classmates, It's always nice to hear how ex-Jays are doing, no matter what stupid thing they have done lately.

Juan Francisco claimed by Red Sox

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Juan Francisco was placed on waivers by the Blue Jays and claimed by the Red Sox.

I don't really know what to think about it. As MjwW wrote in today's post on the Rule 5 Draft, there are:

definitely candidates to be removed from the 40-man to make room to protect several prospects, including but not limited to Cory Burns, Colt Hynes, Bo Schultz, Matt Hague, Kyle Drabek (who is out of options) and various non-tender candidates.

I would have given up any one of those guys over Francisco, but then Juan was out of options.

Juan had a great start to his time with the Blue Jays, after 35 games with the team he was hitting .277/.364/.598 with 9 home runs and 24 RBI. We thought we found another power hitter, pulled off the garage bin, to fit with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.

Unfortunately, from June on Juan hit .185/.237/.371  with 7 home runs and 19 RBI. And he struck out 36.3% of the time. Batting coach Kevin Seitzer couldn't seem to get him to do any better at the plate and the team seemed to tire of him, he only had 5 at bats in September. And his defense, at third base, was pretty poor. I thought he was ok playing first.

On the season as a whole, he hit RHP ok (.238/.306/.504), and many of us thought he could be useful if used just against right-handers.

Blue Jays, Red Sox preparing offers for Pablo Sandoval

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The Red Sox, Giants, and Blue Jays have emerged as the three frontrunners in the race to land the prized free agent third baseman.

The market for free agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval continues to heat up, and it appears that the 28-year-old has already has a couple offers on his table to consider. Per the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo, Sandoval has received a formal offer from the Boston Red Sox, and will likely attain one from theToronto Blue Jays within the next 24 hours. The San Francisco Giants, the third team in the Sandoval derby, are set to speak with Sandoval's agent, Gustavo Vasquez, tonight as well, according to FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal.

The Red Sox have been quite busy today, initially submitting a six-year, $110-120 million offer to left-hander Jon Lester, and now placing a bid for Sandoval. The Red Sox are currently in an unusual situation for the franchise, with very little money committed long-term and an abundance of young talent. However, the club has needs in the rotation and an obvious weak spot at the hot corner, where Will Middlebrooks hit just .191/.256/.265 in 2014.

The Blue Jays have also been busy this offseason, already making a major free agent acquisition with the signing of Russell Martin earlier this week. Sportsnet's Shi Davidi reported earlier today that the Blue Jays had yet to make an offer to Sandoval, but if Cafardo's report is correct, then that should change within the next day or so. Sandoval, who hit .279/.324/.415 with a 3.3 WAR in 2014, would fit nicely with Toronto, filling needs for both a third baseman and left-handed power.

Blue Jays 'in the mix' on Pablo Sandoval

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Ken Rosenthal tweeted this:

But, as he says:

I don't think I'd want to go beyond 5 years with Pablo, (not that I am against going more than five for the right guy he is only 28 but his weight would be a concern for me. I think he is going to be overpaid, I really wouldn't want the Blue Jays to be the ones overpaying. Over the past four years, Pablo has put up WARs of 5.5, 2.6, 2.3 and 3.0. Personally, if he was asking for more than $15 million a year for 4 years, I'd be out.

Since he's been on World Series winning teams, he's been sold as a 'leader' and 'team chemistry' guy. We already bought once of those this month, I don't really need another.

Poll
Would you offer Sandoval a 6-year contract at $15 million a year?

  341 votes |Results

Daily Red Sox Links: Pablo Sandoval, Juan Francisco, Jon Lester

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Today's links take a look at why the Red Sox are pursuing Pablo Sandoval, the team's first addition of the offseason, and the year that was for Allen Webster.

There are a lot of assumptions being made about Pablo Sandoval's future, but how many of them have credence? (Brian MacPherson; Providence Journal)

With Sandoval emerging as the clear priority at third base, why do the Red Sox prefer him to Hanley Ramirez? (Alex Speier; WEEI.com)

In claiming Juan Francisco, it's clear Boston is intrigued by his power. (Sean McAdam; CSN New England)

Here is a look at the newest Red Sox addition from a Toronto point of view. (Tom Dakers; Bluebird Banter)

Speaking of the Blue Jays, it appears they will be more active this offseason than they've been in the past. (Alex Skillin; Fire Brand of the AL)

Though a Cole Hamels trade is still a possibility, Jon Lester remains the priority. (Scott Lauber; Boston Herald)

Lester has finished his first real meeting with the Red Sox this winter, and his agent had nothing but good things to say about the visit. (Jason Mastrodonato; Masslive.com)

And it appears that the meetings resulted in a concrete offer from Boston. (Drew Silva; Hardball Talk)

Sox Prospects looks at what wound up being an up-and-down year for Allen Webster. (Jim Crowell & Chaz Fiorino; Sox Prospects)

Minor-league pitcher Cody Kukuk was arrested this week for aggravated robbery. (John Sickels; Minor League Ball)

Which Blue Jays pitchers will benefit most from Russell Martin?

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Pitch framing is foremost among Russell Martin's many skills. Which Jays hurlers might get the most out of his strike stealing wizardry?

When the Blue Jays signed Russell Martin it could be argued that it was the biggest investment in catcher defense of all time.

While Martin is coming off a strong year with the bat the reality is that he projects as only a slightly above-average hitter going forward. His career wRC+ is 106 and Steamer is predicting a 111 wRC+ for next year. Last year's effort was largely driven by an inflated .336 BABIP which was well above his career .279 mark.

Brian McCann signed a similar deal last offseason, but he did so coming off six straight 20 home run seasons where his wRC+ only dipped below 119 once. He was thought of as an impact bat, as well as a good defensive catcher. On a similar deal Martin is being paid to be a good bat and an impact defensive catcher.

This is the biggest free-agent contract for a catcher that values defensive ability as highly as offensive output. Martin doesn't get $82 million if he isn't considered to be a game-changer behind the dish.

The first major component of Martin's game-changing defensive skill is his arm.

Martin that has gunned down 73 base runners in the last two years, holding runners to a stolen base percentage of only 60.6%. At that rate when teams try and run on the Canadian catcher they are costing themselves runs in bunches. At times, Martin makes nabbing potential base stealers look downright easy:

In this clip he is referred to multiple times as a "sniper" which seems simultaneously very accurate and completely out of place:

Pay close attention to how nonchalant Martin is after catching Denard Span here:

Just another day at the office:

An arm that both deters and punishes theft and an above-average bat is a great combination. However, they're not enough to justify the biggest free-agent contract in franchise history. At the end of the day the Blue Jays do not make this deal with Martin unless they believe in the value of pitch framing.

In Scott's article about the signing earlier this week he did a good job of summarizing Martin's total value according to different framing metrics, so I won't go too far down that road again. I do think that it's fairly incredible that StatCorner's data indicates that Martin was 233 calls or 31.7 runs better than Dioner Navarro last season. While it's unfair to take those numbers purely at face value, or imagine the Jays just bought themselves three wins per season on framing alone, the upgrade is substantial.

It's apparent that Martin is a good framer and Navarro is not, but there's more to the story. Martin gets you strikes that Navarro doesn't, but which ones? Thanks to Baseball Savant it's possible to answer that question. To compare the two catchers' framing abilities I looked at which pitches outside the strike zone they were able to get called as strikes.

The following pictures tell the tale. The boxes that are meant to indicate the strike zone in these heatmaps are slightly off, so focus on the colored areas. The following heatmap shows the pitches outside the zone that Dioner Navarro got called as strikes:

Navarro has done an alright job on the the inside and outside corners and gets a spattering of calls down low. Compare that to the the strikes Martin is getting outside the zone and the difference is clear:

Russell Martin is going to get you the low strike that Navarro isn't. The next question that comes up is which Blue Jays pitchers need that low strike the most?

Using Pitch/Fx data, I calculated which pitchers currently on the roster threw pitches in the lower third of the strike zone or below most frequently last year. Some of the sample sizes here are on the smaller side because I included every pitcher who with at least 20 innings pitched.

PitcherPitches Thrown"Low" Pitches Thrown"Low" Pitch Percentage
Marco Estrada2534141655.8%
Chad Jenkins44023553.4%
Marcus Stroman2082109452.5%
Liam Hendriks55128852.3%
Aaron Loup108456151.8%
Drew Hutchison3051143246.9%
Steve Delabar48022346.5%
Brett Cecil89540144.8%
J.A. Happ2710120344.4%
Mark Buehrle3082128841.8%
R.A. Dickey3513135038.4%
Aaron Sanchez46517838.3%
Todd Redmond120540633.7%

There are a couple of things worth noting here. The first that while Estrada pops up here as the first guy, he threw to known pitch-framing ace Jonathan Lucroy last season so Martin wouldn't actually represent an upgrade. Additionally, there is no way that all of these pitchers appear for the Jays next season (Happ and Estrada may wind up being mutually exclusive) and we don't know whether Dickey will throw to Martin yet or not.

The pitcher I'm most interested to see paired with the 31-year-old backstop is Stroman. The team's de facto ace had an absolutely extraordinary debut in 2014 and could improve next season, especially given that his pitching style appears to gel with Martin's strengths.

Another thing to watch going forward is whether any new pitchers the Jays bring in during the offseason have low-ball tendencies that take advantage of Martin's framing strengths.

Even if we leave aside the more or less unprovable idea that Martin can add significant value to this team with his leadership and game calling, it's clear that signing him will have a pretty significant effect on the success of this team's pitchers. Based on his pitch-framing numbers, it appears the upgrade over Navarro will be astronomical.

Given what the Jays are paying for Martin, it kind of needs to be.


Thursday Rockpile: Rockies to host Twitter chat with execs, coaches Friday

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Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich will host a Twitter chat Friday afternoon along with owner Dick Monfort, manager Walt Weiss and pitching coach Steve Foster.

Rockies' brass to host Twitter chat on Friday - Rockies.com
The chat with Bridich, Foster, Monfort and Weiss will be at 1 p.m. and will likely be inundated with trolls, so I'll echo the guys at the Purple Dinosaur Podcast and request that members of the Purple Row community help counter this by asking actual, relevant questions for these guys.

Rockies 2014 Player Grades: Michael McKenry, Catcher - The Denver Post
Patrick Saunders continues his series of 2014 player grades for the Rockies by looking at catcher Michael McKenry. For another look at McKenry's season, here's what Purple Row's RhodeIslandRoxFan had to say about him.

Rockies Line-Up for Yesterday - Rockies Zingers
For a fun piece of nostalgia, Jake Shapiro has a great rundown of Rockies past from A-Z in poem form, with a few surprises thrown in along the way.

Around MLB

Red Sox offer on table for Jon Lester - ESPN.com
After trading him to Oakland for Yoenis Cespedes in July, the Red Sox are looking to re-sign free agent starter Jon Lester, according to ESPN's Gordon Edes. Edes also reports that Boston is after third baseman Pablo Sandoval.

Report: Blue Jays expected to make offer to Pablo Sandoval
According to The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo, another team in for Sandoval is Boston's AL East rival from north of the border, which would seem to make it a three-way race for his services among Toronto, Boston and San Francisco.

Yoan Moncada Is Affecting All of International Baseball - Fangraphs
Kiley McDaniel has a rather lengthy piece at Fangraphs on the interesting situation of Cuban infielder Yoan Monvada and the wide-reaching effect it is having on international baseball.

Thursday Bantering: Blue Jays Rumors

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There are Blue Jays rumors a plenty today.

First, not a rumor, there will be a press conference at 2:00 Eastern introducing new Blue Jay Russell Martin. It will be on Sportsnet 1 and Sportsnet.ca and we'll have an open thread to for it.

Jon Heyman tells us that Dioner Navarro has asked for a trade, or, at least, 'expressed interest in a trade'. I can understand that, I would imagine that he would rather be a catcher than a DH, especially since he'll be looking for another contract after this season. Jon says that three teams have expressed interest in Navarro.

Ken Rosenthal tweets this:

I'd still rather we leave Lawrie at third and go with a second baseman.

Depending on who you believe, the Blue Jays may be preparing offers for Jon Lester, Pablo Sandoval and Andrew Miller. Many people seem to think the Jays are willing to go beyond the 5-year for either Lester or Sandoval. Personally, I get the feeling that they would like to keep one of those guys away from teh Red Sox, but it is likely just the play I'm reading things. I'm likely projecting my own dislike of the Red Sox on to the Jays' front official.

And, a rumor just at the wire:

Put me down on the 'please no' side on that one. A 39 year old, who put up a 0.3 WAR last year and who had a -20.1 UZR/150 in RF?

John Gibbons dispels rumours about R.A. Dickey's negative clubhouse prescence

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With the Russell Martin signing, some news that hasn't been talked about too much (thankfully) is that R.A. Dickey has been rumoured as a slight problem in the clubhouse. First Blue Jays radio broadcaster Jerry Howarth noted that Dickey is:

a man unto himself on an island, and you don't want that in your clubhouse

He also went on to say

(Dickey) gives you 200 innings, he goes out there and starts 30 games, that's great; but you need more than that.

This seems like much ado about nothing as broadcasters often feel the need for team chemistry is a little more important than what it seems to be. I think must people would gladly take a pitcher who starts 30 games over an extremely nice guy who has an ERA north of 5.00.

Over at BlueJayHunter, Ian dug up an article from Dickey's time in New York where his clubhouse presence was also questioned.

And, in an underappreciated part of this saga that soared into visibility this week, Dickey can be a handful. He clearly has enjoyed his rise from the ashes into a Flushing folk hero, and while he deserves praise and riches, there’s also the matter of him having to coexist peacefully in a workplace. His gift for self-promotion and his love of attention don’t endear himself to most teammates. Instead, his durability and outstanding results led him to be appreciated but far from beloved.

It all sounds like what we already know about Dickey, which is that the knuckleballer can be a little strange and may not have the prototypical baseball personality. I'm sure there's bigger problems with the Blue Jays team than a successful starting pitcher who weirds some people out. Thankfully John Gibbons was on the radio this morning doing his part to quash the rumours that he and Dickey had experienced a tumoltuous relationship this season. Gibbons said:

He's a different guy, a different personality. There's no problems there.

As someone who once fought a pitcher during a game, it's no surprise that Gibbons doesn't take his past disagreements with Dickey too seriously.

Players don't agree with what I do everyday, I don't agree with what they do all the time so we talk some things out.

It sounds like the former 'ace' of the pitching staff may not be shy about letting people know his thoughts and apparently it's rubbed some people (like Jerry Howarth) the wrong way. It seems doubtful that this issue has pushed a trade involving Dickey to the top of Alex Anthopoulos' priority list, but it may still weigh slightly on his mind in the coming months.

Thankfully the Martin news has overshadowed all of the usual offseason drama, freeing us from weeks of interviewers asking Blue Jays players how weird R.A. Dickey is.

Giants believe they're still in mix for Pablo Sandoval

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The two-time World Series champion third baseman could make a decision within the next week.

The San Francisco Giants still have a good chance of re-signing free-agent third baseman Pablo Sandoval, assistant general manager Bobby Evans told Janie McCauley of the Associated Press.

The club has been given "every indication" that it remains a real option for Sandoval, Evans said. The team has yet to make a formal offer to the two-time All-Star.

Sandoval recently met with the Boston Red Sox and has drawn interest from the Toronto Blue Jays, though like the Giants, neither club has made an offer -- something that could come soon, according to Evans.

"He'll come to a point where he's more likely to make a decision before Thanksgiving," Evans told McCauley. "There's no deadline, that's just my sense."

Sandoval hit .279/.324/.415 with 16 home runs for the Giants in 2014. The 28-year-old switch hitter has been an above-average hitter in six out of his seven big league seasons, during which he owns a lifetime .294/.346/.465 line.

Blue Jays reportedly interested in Torii Hunter

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Hunter has been slightly more productive at the plate than soon-to-be-former Jays outfielder Melky Cabrera over the past two seasons.

The Toronto Blue Jays are pursuing free-agent outfielder Torii Hunter, according to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal.

Hunter was a target of Toronto's two years ago before he signed with the Detroit Tigers, per Rosenthal. The 39-year-old veteran performed well in Detroit, hitting .295/.327/.456 in 1,238 plate appearances spanning two seasons. His OPS+ of 113 during that time was slightly better than that of fellow free agent Melky Cabrera, who the Jays will likely not be able to retain after his strong bounce-back season at the plate.

Defensively, Hunter has fallen off considerably, going from 15 runs above average in the outfield in 2012 to 18 runs below average in 2014. The Jays could rotate Hunter and Edwin Encarnacion at designated hitter. Adam Lind, the recipient of most of the team's plate appearances at DH last season, was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers earlier this month.

Hunter owns a .279/.334/.465 line in 18 big league seasons, hauling in nine Gold Gloves and five All-Star Game selections with the Tigers, Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels.

Melky Cabrera reportedly drawing interest from White Sox

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Cabrera is coming off the best full season of his career.

The Chicago White Sox are "considering a pursuit of" free-agent outfielder Melky Cabreraaccording to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman.

Cabrera rejected a $15.3 million qualifying offer from the Toronto Blue Jays earlier this month after putting up the best offensive numbers of any full season in his career. The 30-year-old Dominican hit .301/.351/.458, good for a 126 OPS+, with 16 home runs in 621 plate appearances. He would be a fitting addition for the White Sox, notes Heyman, in a lineup that includes a solid table setter in Adam Eaton and sluggers Jose Abreu and Dayan Viciedo.

The Blue Jays don't believe they'll be able to retain Cabrera and have shifted their focus to veteran outfielder Torii Hunterper Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal.

The Seattle Mariners and Baltimore Orioles could also be in the mix for Cabrera, according to Heyman. Cabrera is a career .286/.339/.415 hitter in 10 seasons with the Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Atlanta Braves, Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants.

Question time

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Since the rumor mill has died down some, I thought we could just ask a question:

Which player in Blue Jays history did you have the highest hopes for, but didn't live up to your expectations?

For me, it would be Kyle Drabek.

We picked up Kyle in the Roy Halladay trade, along with Travis d'Arnaud and Michael Taylor. Taylor was swapped for Brett Wallace, who was swapped for Anthony Gose, who was swapped for Devon Travis. Who knows who we'll get for Travis.

Kyle seemed to be the big piece we were getting back, though d'Arnaud looked like he would be pretty good too. Drabek, to me, looked like someone who would become one of our top 3 starters,. I didn't expect him to become the next Roy Halladay, but he seemed to be the type that would be a good number two type for years to come.

In his 'meet the new Jay' post, Hugo wrote this about Drabek:

Drabek was drafted for his lively fastball and his big curveball, two pitches which put him squarely in the "power pitcher" category. He didn't pitch for very long in the minors, though, before blowing out his elbow and requiring Tommy John surgery. The Phillies were concerned about how Drabek might respond and hooked him up with a career minor leaguer, Mike Zagurski, as a roomate, and the two developed a good friendship. Maybe it worked, or maybe their concerns were misplaced, because Drabek has really come along way since that surgery - altering his mechanics and working on his change-up, a crucial third pitch that Drabek admits still needs more work. Having a major-league quality change will be crucial to making Drabek's fastball as effective as it can be.

Drabek only made 8 starts in 2008, but did well in his first taste of A ball. 2009, though, was a very big year for Kyle. He pitched at advanced A and AA, making 15 starts at AA, showing why he was so well regarded coming out of the draft, and not seeming to show any lingering effects from his ligament replacement. Overall, Drabek put up a 3.19 ERA over 158 innings, actually a bit of an alarming increase from 2008 - but nice that his arm strength is at that level. He struck out 150 and walked 50 over that span, putting up very impressive K and walk rates - the walk rate is especially impressive for a young power pitcher. Drabek's MO on the mound is pretty simple - attack the zone with a first-pitch strike, typically with his fastball. When he's ahead of the hitter, he uses the curve to put them away.

Hugo figured him to start the 2010 and likely make the major in 2011. He went right to the top of our Prospect Lists 2010 and 2011.(following him in the top 10  in 2011 were Brett Lawrie, Zach Stewart, J.P. Arencibia, Adeiny Hechavarria, Anthony Gose. Deck McGuire. Travis d'Arnaud, Carlos Perez and Jake Marisnick).

He seemed like a can't miss prospect. Baseball Prospectus had him on their top 100 prospects list in 2007 (99th), 2009 (92th), 2010 (16th) and 2011 (14th). His dad was a former Cy Young winner. All seemed good.

At least until he pitched in the majors. Then, suddenly, he couldn't find the strike zone with both hands and a compass.  In 78 MLB innings, in 2011, he walked 55. In 2012 he walked 47 in 71 innings and despite the best efforts of the Jays coaching staffs, things haven't improved since. Kyle turns 27 in a few days,  now my highest hope is that he become a long man out of the pen and that seems like a very long shot. I'm surprised the Jays have kept him on the 40-man roster.

Anyway, that's my choice. Who would you pick?


Matt Kemp drawing interest; may be most likely Dodgers outfielder to be dealt

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The 30-year-old outfielder is coming off a phenomenal season at the plate, but could find himself as the odd man out in the Dodgers' glut of outfielders.

Despite previous reports indicating that the Dodgers were inclined to keep outfielder Matt Kemp over Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier, the 30-year-old Kemp may now be the most likely of the trio to be dealt this winter, per CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, who reports that Kemp is drawing interest from other clubs.

Heyman lists a variety of reasons for Kemp possibly being dealt. For starters, there is questions surrounding Kemp's wanting to be a part of Los Angeles' organization. Crawford and Ethier are also seen as more difficult to move due to their bloated contracts. Kemp still has five-years and $107 million remaining on his current contract, but his performance has been adequate enough to not make that a huge financial burden. Furthermore, the Dodgers would like to start highly-regarded prospect Joc Pederson in center field next season, moving Yasiel Puig to right field, and Kemp to left, where he has publicly been against playing.

The 30-year-old Kemp rebounded nicely from an injury-plagued 2013 campaign last season, hitting .287/.346/.506 with a 140 OPS+ in 599 plate appearance. He also hit an outstanding .303/.363/.545 from June 1st on. While Kemp was excellent at the plate, he was a clear negative defensively, spending a significant amount of time at all three outfield positions and collecting a -23 defensive runs saved and -22.4 UZR. Were Kemp to be dealt, he would most likely end up in right field, where he was only slightly below-average in 2014 (-3 DRS in ~500 innings).

Heyman speculates that the Mariners, Blue Jays, and Orioles could get involved in talks for Kemp. The Mariners and Orioles are seeking right-handed power bats, and the Blue Jays have been connected to Kemp in the past.

Weekend Digest: Giancarlo's monster contract; Huddy's final year; Martin, LaRoche, Butler

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MLB news from the past week.

Giancarlo Stanton signs 13-year, $325 million extension

This is the richest contract in all of professional sports, but it comes heavily backloaded. Through the first three years, Stanton will be paid just $30 million with an option to opt out after the 2020 season, and has a complete no-trade clause for the life of the contract. This may give the Marlins some financial flexibility early on, but you have to remember that a deviously shrewd Jeffrey Loria is in charge. The team is said to be negotiating a new TV contract in the near future and with that income, Loria could conceivably tear the team down near the opt out point and force Stanton to take that option, thereby saving himself a whole bunch of money. At least one other person believes this contract is a scam.

Tim Hudson: "Pretty sure" 2015 will be his last

Instead of leaving on top, Hudson plans to play out the remaining year on his two-year deal with the Giants. Hudson is currently the active MLB wins leader, six ahead of CC Sabathia and 10 more than Bartolo Colon.

Blue Jays sign Russell Martin

The native Canadian signed a five-year, $82 million contract with the Jays on Tuesday, the second-richest contract in team history. The previous #1 catcher, Dioner Navarro, is now seeking a trade.

Billy Butler leaves Kansas City

Apparently, an AL Championship isn't enough to keep Billy Butler in KC. Butler leaves the Royals for Oakland on a three-year deal worth $30 million. The Royals declined Butler's $12.5 million option for next year; he spent much of his time in 2014 as a DH, but looks to be Oakland's full-time first baseman.

Adam LaRoche signs with White Sox

Various pundits predicted that LaRoche would go to the Marlins. While they did make him an offer, the White Sox offered him $5 million more for two years of service.

Time to vote on SBNation MLB Awards

This is just a reminder that voting ends Monday to pick your favorite nominees in Team of the YearMost Regrettable Moment, and Funniest Moment of the Year. If you haven't done so already, go ahead and do it now!

Report: Blue Jays out of Pablo Sandoval sweepstakes

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Over at Sportsnet, Ben Nicholson-Smith has poured water on the fire about the reports that the Blue Jays were getting close to signing third baseman Pablo Sandoval. Although it sure seems like they were never really that close to signing him in the first place, it's now a certain fact that the two sides haven't talked in 48 hours. Apparently there was a point in time when the team was putting in serious effort to locking up the former Giant, but the addition of Russell Martin changed things:

The Blue Jays met with Vasquez (Sandoval's agent) at the GM Meetings, where groundwork for deals is often established. But the Blue Jays left Phoenix with designs on signing Russell Martin and they’ve spent much of their energy pursuing and signing the catcher to a five-year, $82 million deal in recent days.

Sandoval, a 28-year-old Venezuelan, hit .279/.324/.415 with 16 home runs in the World Series winning 2014 campaign, which was good enough for a 111 wRC+ and a WAR of 3.0. For a man of rather large stature, he has held up extremely well so far in his career and has missed very little time to injury in the past few seasons.

Reports seem to agree on the fact that the Red Sox are currently the team closest to bringing the Panda to town and their offer has been pegged as five years and $95 million by sources. That offer is obviously $13 million more than what Toronto paid for their newest signing for the same number of years.

While rumours are flying around about which free agents the Jays are close to agreeing to terms with, it sure is beginning to sound like nothing is imminent.

We’re not close to anything," Anthopoulos said. "We’re not ‘being aggressive’ with anybody. Our focus was on Martin and that just took a lot of energy. We don’t have five balls in the air.

It seems that the remainder of the Blue Jays moves this offseason will come by way of trade and an endless pile of waiver wire pick-ups. Slow news day...

Question Time

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Question Time: Which Blue Jay player turned out to be much better than you ever expected?

The rumor mill is still grinding slowly, and likely will continue to for the  week leading up the American Thanksgiving weekend. Other than the Jays being out on Pablo Sandoval (and at a likely $90 million plus, over five years, I'm happy with that), there really isn't much rumored to be going on.

Bob Elliot gives us the timeline on the Russell Martin deal and does his usual great job (other than the weird mention of Kingston a couple of times).

I figured I'd ask another question, we did the negative end of this one, a couple of days ago, so let's do the positive side: Which player in Blue Jays history for whom you had little in expectations, out performed your hopes the most?

The obvious answer is Jose Bautista, we figured he was a platoon player, he could hit lefties, but shouldn't be out there against right-handers (and for some reason we were using him as a leadoff hitter early in his Jays career), but he turned into Jose Bautista. I remember the 'we hate Jose Bautista' facebook page, so I wasn't the only one that didn't

Putting Bautista aside, I'll go with Marco Scutaro. When we traded for him, I thought he was roughly a replacement player, a little better with the bat than John McDonald, but not much more than that. We had Aaron Hill and David Eckstein, so Scutaro looked like a bench guy.

Eckstein turned out to be pretty bad, then his biggest hit of the season was an elbow to Hill's head, putting Aaron out of the lineup and Scutaro into it.

Marco turned out to be great. He put up a 2.9 fWAR in 2008 and a 4.2 fWAR in 2009, did a great job in the leadoff spot. And he was a lot of fun to watch. His teammates seemed to like him. And he was a very 'heads up' player.

Now that's veteran presents.

So give us your choice of the Blue Jays player that exceeded your expectations the most.

Monday Bantering: Blue Jays Rumors

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There are a couple of Blue Jays rumors out there.

Susan Slusser, at SFGate.com, has a little bit that I hadn't heard before:

According to two sources, the A's are getting calls about their left-handed hitters, including Jaso, who was recently cleared for all activity after missing the end of the season with a concussion for the second year in a row. Toronto has some interest in Jaso as a potential backup for Russell Martin, and the A's have inquired about Blue Jays left-hander Sean Nolin, sources said.

I don't see the point in going after John Jaso, but, I guess, if Navarro is traded, the team would like a better backup than Josh Thole. A lefty bat on the bench would be a useful thing. If he comes for Nolin, I'm ok with it. I'd rather have the other lefty batters she mentions as possibly available. I'd love to have Josh Reddick. Brandon Moss would be interesting too.

And, over in the Star, Richard Griffin tells us that the Jays are still in the hunt for Melky Cabrera.

Cabrera is good - you need to have seen him every day to realize what a solid player he is - and a four- or five-year deal would not be a stretch for the Jays if he stays healthy. The guy is tough and likes to play every day, even if banged up a little. But from the outside, you would see just 88 games in 2013 with various injuries that suggested a body breaking down a year after testing positive for PEDs. In fact, those injuries were related to a life-threatening tumour halfway up his spine, discovered in August and successfully removed, allowing for a healthy 2014 until September.

Five years will be longer than i'd like to go for Melky but I guess with the Red Sox signing Hanley Ramirez and still being in on Pablo Sandoval, the Jays might have to do something to keep up with the Jones.

I'm sure Alex has a number of balls in the air at the moment. If I'm him, I'm trying to figure if i'd like to improve defense out in left. If he brings Melky back for 5 years, at some point you'd be wanting to move him to DH (maybe 2015?). If Melky's locked up for 5 years, what will the Jays be doing with other guys that they might want to be DHing some like Encarnacion and Bautista. Are they planing to extend both of them?

And, not so much a rumor, but Dirk Hayhurst discusses Jerry Howarth's view of R.A. Dickey. I like this paragraph (but go over and read the whole thing, big words and all)::

Look, it takes all kinds to win folks, and unless a player is going out of his way to make his team look like a joke-like, say, painting homophobic slurs in his eye black- you find a way to assimilate his persona. Besides, if RA really is a man unto himself out there, he's certainly not the only one. There are plenty of times you could say that Melky was that way, or EE, or even Joey Bats in their careers. Furthermore, you think that's the reason the team isn't winning, that RA has that much power over the team, you're nuts. Asking him to pitch better is one thing. Asking him to be more involved... that's something else.

I agree with Dirk, expecting all players to have the same personalities is silly. R.A. is different than the average ball player. Dickey is introspective, likely introverted, he had a childhood that you wouldn't wish on anyone, he reads, he writes, he likely feels like he doesn't fit in (you think Dirk maybe can empathize with him?).

I really don't care if a player makes friends with members of the media or not. I don't care if they are outgoing or if they are quiet around their teammates. Any workplace will have people of differing personalities

Mike Wilner, interviewed on the Fan 590 yesterday and, among the things he said "it was a terrible clubhouse last year towards the end of the year" and people "told me it was the most dysfunctional clubhouse ever".  "I don't that a guy like Russell Martin can exert his influence all that much". He seemed to think that Colby and Lind leaving will improve things and, of course, he thinks a few more wins would make it all better.

I'm pretty sure that any team that had been in first, early in the season, and then dropped out of contention, would have a less than fun clubhouse. It really isn't a part of the game that interests me.

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