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Blue Jays acquire Michael Saunders from Mariners for J.A. Happ

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Saunders, a native of British Columbia, will likely be one of three Canadians on Toronto's opening day roster, joining catcher Russell Martin and outfielder Dalton Pompey.

The Mariners have traded outfielder Michael Saunders to the Blue Jays for pitcher J.A. Happ, both teams announced on Wednesday.

Saunders, who turned 28 in November, had a career year offensively in 2014, hitting .273/.341/.450, but was limited to just 78 games. He missed 15 games on the disabled list in June with shoulder inflammation, and missed another 50 games from July to September with a strained oblique.

The versatile Saunders played mostly right field for Seattle in 2014, but in his six major league seasons he has played at least 107 games in all three outfield positions. In his career he is rated above average defensively by total zone rating, defensive runs saved and ultimate zone rating in both corner spots, but below average by all three metrics in center field.

The left-handed Saunders made $2.3 million in 2014 and is eligible for salary arbitration this winter. The Mariners tendered him a contract on Tuesday.

Toronto is in need of outfielders, with Jose Bautista the only regular set to return in 2015. The Blue Jays dealt Anthony Gose to the Tigers, and combined with current free agents Melky Cabrera and Colby Rasmus, that trio accounted for 289 of Toronto's 486 outfield starts last season.

Happ, who turned 32 in October, was 11-11 with a 4.22 ERA in 158 innings for the Jays in 2014, with 133 strikeouts and 51 walks. The veteran starter is under contract for $6.7 million for 2015.


Braves sign Nick Markakis to four-year, $44 million deal

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The longtime Oriole is set to replace Jason Heyward in right field for Atlanta.

Two weeks after trading star right fielderJason Heyward, the Atlanta Braves have dipped into the free agent market to find his replacement, reportedly signing Nick Markakis to a four-year pact, per Yahoo Sports' Jeff PassanDan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun adds that the deal is worth $44 million. ESPN's Buster Olney was the first to report that talks between Atlanta and Markakis were "intensifying" and that a deal in the range of four years and $45 million was in play.

For the 31-year-old Markakis, the signing represents a homecoming of sorts, as the right fielder grew up just outside Atlanta. Markakis spent the first nine years of his big league career with the Baltimore Orioles, where he emerged as one of the best outfielders in baseball early in his career before settling in as a high-OBP, low-power corner outfielder over the past few years. For his career, he has hit .290/.358/.435 with a 113 OPS+ and 25.2 WAR. This past season, he hit .276/.342/.386 with a 107 OPS+, 14 home runs, and 2.1 WAR in 710 plate appearances.

Markakis is generally regarded as a strong defender in right, as evidenced by his two Gold Glove awards, including one from this year. However, defensive metrics seem to paint a different picture. Per defensive runs saved, he has been a -13 defender over the past three years, while UZR placed him at -9.0. Markakis's skillset as a whole also seems to be in decline, as he will be in his mid-30's by the contract's end. Markakis does add some value through his ability to stay on the field, having played at least 155 games in seven of the past eight years.

The Giants, Blue Jays, and Orioles were also rumored to be in the running for Markakis. Markakis was thought to be nearing a deal with Baltimore earlier this offseason, but talks stalled, leading to him exploring other options.

For the Braves, Markakis will be replacing Heyward, who was one of the best players in baseball last season. While he is a clear step down performance-wise from Heyward, Markakis $11 million average salary going forward will be significantly cheaper than Heyward's, as the latter is eligible for free agency next winter.

The addition of Markakis may also be a prelude to a bigger deal for the Braves. With Markakis now in right, one of Justin Upton and Evan Gattis is out of a starting job, meaning one of them is likely to be dealt. As Fangraphs' Dave Cameron speculates, the timing of this deal coincides perfectly with the Marinersacquisition of J.A. Happ, which could free up Taijuan Walker for a trade. A Walker-for-Upton trade has been discussed in the past, when Upton was still in Arizona, and could still very well work out. It would also supply Atlanta with yet another young starting pitching option.

Happ-less Mariners make bad trade, dump Saunders

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Jack Zduriencik has done it again, shipping off an undervalued fan favorite because of a myopic focus on what he can't do rather than a balanced understanding of what he can. The Mariners have fixed their rotation depth, but utterly compromised their outfield in the process. It's Jaso-Morse part two for Seattle.

Stop me if you've heard this one before.

The Seattle Mariners enraged fans today by shipping off fan favorite [Player X] in a trade for [Player Y]. The left-handed-hitting [Player X], one of Seattle's best performers in a part-time role last year, was a significant part of the Mariners' current roster with multiple years of cheap team control remaining. [Player Y] fills a distinct need for the M's, but comes with only one year of team control and will be paid around $7M for his contributions.

When prompted for the reasoning behind the deal, Mariners General Manager Jack Zduriencik pointed out [Player X]'s weaknesses - namely, his suboptimal handedness and his seeming inability to contribute for a full season - and [Player Y]'s strengths as a good fit for the roster and park. However, the deal leaves a bigger hole on the roster than the one it fills, and [Player X] has significantly outperformed [Player Y] over the last three seasons. In the months leading up to the deal, the Mariners were curiously reticent to give playing time to [Player X], even when he was obviously superior to the alternatives, leading some to question whether he was shipped out of town for personal reasons. However, [Player X] has a reputation as a good clubhouse guy, so it seems like this is just a case of the Mariners' front office making a bad deal rooted in an unnecessary emphasis on their own player's weaknesses and an inability to break away from traditional roles in roster construction.

Yeah, that's right. Michael Saunders for J.A. Happ is John Jaso for Michael Morse, version two.

To be fair, it's not quite as bad this time around. Unlike Jaso's, Saunders' "part-time player" status is well-earned. The Condor has had legitimate trouble staying on the field over the last three years, and he was certainly no guarantee as a starting right fielder. And Happ is no Morse. The Mariners actually had a need for starting pitcher depth, and Happ has a clean bill of health (aside from a liner to the head he took in 2013, a foot he fractured in 2012, and a fatigued elbow in 2008 OK look I'm trying to be charitable here.) But hey, Jack Z, a tip: a slightly better version of your worst trade ever is still fucking terrible.

This was the Mariners' roster before the deal went down.

PosNameSalaryWARPosNameSalaryWAR
CMike Zunino$550,0002.8SPFelix Hernandez$24,857,0004.5
1BLogan Morrison$2,600,0001.8SPHisashi Iwakuma$8,000,0002.9
2BRobinson Cano$24,000,0005SPJames Paxton$550,0001.6
3BKyle Seager$5,000,0004.1SPTaijuan Walker$550,0001.2
SSBrad Miller$550,0002.3SPRoenis Elias$550,0001.2
RFMichael Saunders$2,900,0002.4[SP6]Jordan Pries$550,0000
CFAustin Jackson$8,000,0002.2
LFDustin Ackley$2,800,0001.9CLFernando Rodney$7,000,0001
DHNelson Cruz$14,000,0001.3LHCharlie Furbush$1,000,0000.4
RHDanny Farquhar$550,0000.3
BenchChris Taylor$550,0001.4RHDominic Leone$550,0000.1
BenchJesus Sucre$550,0000.2LHYoervis Medina$550,0000.1
BenchJames Jones$550,0000RHTom Wilhelmsen$2,100,0000.3
BenchWillie Bloomquist$3,000,0000RHBrandon Maurer$550,0000.2
$65,050,00025.4$47,357,00013.8
$112,407,00086.9

This is the Mariners' roster now:

PosNameSalaryWARPosNameSalaryWAR
CMike Zunino$550,0002.8SPFelix Hernandez$24,857,0004.5
1BLogan Morrison$2,600,0001.8SPHisashi Iwakuma$8,000,0002.9
2BRobinson Cano$24,000,0005SPJames Paxton$550,0001.6
3BKyle Seager$5,000,0004.1SPTaijuan Walker$550,0001.2
SSBrad Miller$550,0002.3SPJ.A. Happ$6,700,0000.8
RFStefen Romero$550,0000.4[SP6]Roenis Elias$550,0001.2
CFAustin Jackson$8,000,0002.2
LFDustin Ackley$2,800,0001.9CLFernando Rodney$7,000,0001
DHNelson Cruz$14,000,0001.3LHCharlie Furbush$1,000,0000.4
RHDanny Farquhar$550,0000.3
BenchChris Taylor$550,0001.4RHDominic Leone$550,0000.1
BenchJesus Sucre$550,0000.2LHYoervis Medina$550,0000.1
BenchJames Jones$550,000-0.7RHTom Wilhelmsen$2,100,0000.3
BenchWillie Bloomquist$3,000,0000RHBrandon Maurer$550,0000.2
$62,700,00022.7$53,507,00014.6
Salary/Wins$116,207,00085

The WAR values are from Steamer. Yes, that's right: Steamer thinks the Mariners just traded away $4M in 2015 AND Michael Saunders in 2016... for negative two wins in 2015. What the fuck? What the fuck.

The Mariners are in win-now mode. Sure, this was a team with an alarming lack of depth anywhere on the roster - more on that this weekend - but when you're a win-now club, you don't bolster your depth by trading from your starters. Now that Saunders is out the door, Stefen Romero is the starting right fielder, and James Jones is about to be forced into more playing time than he probably deserves. Whereas previously the Mariners needed to add one outfielder, now they need to add two - because it's not as if Dustin Ackley or Austin Jackson are surer things than Michael Saunders was.

Damningly, although the Mariners have now forced themselves into acquiring an outfielder, Michael Saunders projects for a higher WAR than every free agent outfielder left on the market. Only Melky Cabrera comes close, and he's likely to require a commitment north of $50M over 4 years. Saunders was going to cost about $7M over two. This was about offense, you say? OK! Michael Saunders also projects for a higher wOBA than almost every free agent outfielder left on the market. There are only three exceptions. One of them is Melky Cabrera, and the other two are glorified DHes Kyle Blanks and Michael Morse. Steamer certainly isn't the be-all end-all, and I'll take the under on its projection for Saunders myself, but that doesn't change the fact that the outfield free agent market is just barren.

Before this trade, the Mariners needed to acquire a starting pitcher for depth and an outfielder for depth. Now they've gone and traded an outfielder for a starting pitcher, fixing their starting pitching depth issue, but in the process compromising their outfield depth even further. Now they need a bench piece and a starter. The outfield free agent market is exceedingly weak, so the front office will probably have to trade for Saunders' replacement... but all of their best trade chips are starting pitchers!

And how, you ask, should the Mariners have resolved their dual need? Well, it should've been easy! See, unlike the outfield free agent market, the starting pitching market is both deep and strong. There were better pitchers than J.A. Happ available, and there were mildly worse pitchers than J.A. Happ available for roughly the same amount of money. Once the starting pitching depth was signed, the Mariners could've easily grabbed a competent fourth outfielder (like Alex Rios) or used their prospect depth to trade for one.

But nope. Fuckin', nope. They've traded away an outfielder better than any of the free agent options, and now they need to add a starting outfielder in a market without any good ones available. Any leverage they may have gained by filling their obvious need for a right-handed hitter has now been compromised by their newly obvious need for a starting right fielder. Dave Cameron observes that this could make Taijuan Walker available for what would probably also be a terrible trade.

If there's a silver lining here, it's J.A. Happ. Happ (who goes by "Jay") is a legitimately interesting piece and an excellent fit for Safeco Field. A left-handed flyballer with a historically solid popup rate and component skills better than Jason Vargas', he's a better version of Chris Young with a more fortuitous handedness and a likely cheaper contract. I expect him to handily outpace his Steamer projection and perform meaningfully better than he did in Toronto. He has a good bit of surplus value, and I'm glad that he's a Mariner.

But in a vacuum - independent of what moves have passed, or what moves may come - J.A. Happ was not worth Michael Saunders. If the Mariners wanted interesting starting pitching depth, they should've signed a free agent, not traded a starting outfielder away. If the Mariners didn't think Saunders was up to the task of starting full time, they should've added something behind him, not shipped him out of town entirely.

And if the Mariners' front office wanted the team to contend in 2015, they should've made a move to actually improve the team - not recreated the most ill-conceived trade of their entire tenure.

Fly free, Condor. Caw caw.

Poll
Caw caw?

  2238 votes |Results

Mariners trade Michael Saunders to Blue Jays for J.A. Happ

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The Blue Jays fill their hole in left field, while the Mariners add rotation depth.

Two of the most aggressive teams thus far this offseason - the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners - made an intriguing one-for-one swap on Wednesday, as Seattle sent outfielder Michael Saunders to Toronto in exchange for left-hander J.A. Happas first reported by ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. The deal seems to address a clear need for the Blue Jays, but is somewhat of a head-scratcher for the Mariners in terms of value.

Based on just value alone, Saunders is the superior talent to Happ. The 28-year-old, who has spent the past decade with the Mariners' organization, has become a rather reliable outfield option over the past few years. Beginning with the 2012 season, he has hit .248/.320/.423 with a 111 OPS+ and 5.6 WAR. He had elevated his game to another level in 2014, though injuries ultimately limited him to just 78 games. In 263 plate appearances, he hit .273/.341/.450 with a 128 OPS+ and 2.4 WAR. Saunders spent a majority of the 2014 season playing right field, where he was regarded as a positive contributor by defensive metrics. He figures to take over left field in Toronto, a position which he has not played in a significant capacity since 2010. The native Canadian (adding Canadians seems to be the trend in Toronto this winter) has two more years of team control, which is one more than Happ.

Saunder's presence in left field also likely spells the end of free agent Melky Cabrera's tenure in Toronto, a note which has now been confirmed by Blue Jays' GM Alex Anthopoulos. In saving money that would have gone to Cabrera (as well as the roughly $3 million saved by swapping Happ for Saunders), the Blue Jays also position themselves for a potential run at a big-name starting pitcher, as Chris Cotillo reports. The Blue Jays's rotation is currently set to be composed of R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Drew Hutchison, Marcus Stroman, and one of a variety of fifth starter candidates, so another impact arm may be necessary to put them over the top.

In Happ, the Mariners add a back-end starter type entering his last year of team control. The 32-year-old southpaw is coming off a season in which he posted a 4.22 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 7.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 1.3 WAR in 158.0 innings with the Blue Jays. He will likely slot in behind Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, and James Paxton to serve as the club's fourth starter next season.

For the Mariners, adding Happ could precipitate a larger move for an impact bat such as Justin Upton, who figures to be available, especially with Atlanta's addition of Nick Markakisearlier today. Happ could give Seattle enough rotation flexibility to not require Taijuan Walker''s presence in 2015, allowing them to potentially use him as the centerpiece to acquire a player of Upton's caliber. So, while we still must wait to see the true reasons for this trade by Seattle, it does seem somewhat lopsided on the surface.

The Blue Jays have an outfield

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It may not be the one we want, it may not be the one Anthopoulos wants, and, if the off-season continues this way, it won't be the one we end up with.

Last night I learned the hard way -- the very, very hard way -- that Alex Anthopoulos cares not for your deadlines.

Originally, the news of Andy Dirks and John Mayberrry Jr. being non-tendered had me worried. Not entirely for what we potentially lost, but what it meant for the starting left field position. So worried, I wrote an entire article on it called The Kevin Pillar Experience that now makes no sense. And, as thankful as I am that it doesn't make sense and will never be published, Michael Saunders will always be the player that ruined my first article for Bluebird Banter. Thanks Condor.

The hammer has officially come down though, Anthopoulos seriously hates platoons and it looks like they are officially extinct in Toronto. There was legitimate value in a Dirks/Pillar platoon or, even better, a Dirks/Mayberry platoon with Pillar starting in AAA, but Anthopoulos has tried to make Gibbons' job as easy as possible next season. The only platoon that may end up happening now is a Pompey/Pillar timeshare in CF, but I think, barring a poor showing in Spring Training, that job is Pompey's at the beginning of the season. Now that I've mentioned platoon this much, this article will probably be obsolete within 24 hours. Come ooooooon trade for Mike Trout...?

So, under 24 hours ago, the Blue Jays outfield consisted of two bottom third of the order bats in Pillar, Pompey and Bautista. As of now, and I can't stress how tentative this is, it's Saunders, Pompey and Bautista. And who knows, without Melky Cabrera, Dalton Pompey may actually end up batting second in the order. Despite being a switch hitter, Pompey has great numbers against right-handed pitching and has been abysmal against left-handed pitching. Unbelievably small sample size alert but last season, in 25 plate appearances, Pompey had a .431 wOBA against right-handers. To hold him to this standard would be unfair to the 21-year old and unrealistic as fans. Thankfully though, for you and I, I'm not in charge of ordering the lineup card.

Up until this move however, Anthopoulos had trouble answering any of the needs diagnosed by the previous season. The Blue Jays were 22nd in wRC+ at 2B last season with 75 and sent six people to the position, the most of any American League team and only less than the San Francisco Giants. Yet, other than Devon Travis and a healthy Maicer Izturis, that position appears to have the same outlook as 2014. It's still early though and it doesn't seem that Anthopoulos is all that interested in slowing down.

Whether this is an unofficial goodbye to Melky Cabrera or not is still uncertain but trading for Michael Saunders is arguably the best deal the Blue Jays have made. I mean, Saunders isn't going to create waves the same way Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin did, but he does fill a much-needed position while simultaneously creating quite a bit of bench flexibility for Gibbons.

During the off-season I like to catch up on the television I missed during the season. It is clear to me now that Alex Anthopoulos doesn't care about my Netflix addiction; he will continue to make this the most entertaining off-season Toronto has ever seen since... 2012.

Seriously though Alex, if I may use your first name, try House of Cards sometime.

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

Michael Bradburn is a Contributor for Bluebird Banter. You can follow him on Twitter at @mwbii. You can also reach him at michaelwbii@gmail.com

Rockies looking to add talent at Winter Meetings

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Pitching of both the starting and relief varieties will be atop the Rockies' shopping list as they head to San Diego for the Winter Meetings next week in San Diego.

While willing to listen, Rockies could add at Meetings - Rockies.com
Thomas Harding reports that while the Rockies will entertain offers for Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, the team has no mandate to shed payroll and may look to add players, especially pitchers, at the upcoming Winter Meetings.

Chacin aims to turn disappointment of '14 into production in '15 - Rockies.com
One pitcher that could bolster the Rockies' pitching staff in 2015 is already on the roster in Jhoulys Chacin, who will be looking to bounce back from an injury-riddled 2014 season that saw him compile a 5.40 ERA in just 63 1/3 innings.

A healthy Chacin could join Jorge De La Rosa, Tyler Matzek and perhaps Jordan Lyles in making up a solid foundation for the Rockies' rotation in 2015.

How Valuable a Trade Piece is Taijuan Walker? - Fangraphs
With rumors of the Rockies and Mariners in trade talks, Fangraphs' Jeff Sullivan takes a look at the value of right-handed pitcher Taijuan Walker, who may be a target for the Rockies, especially in a trade involving Carlos Gonzalez.

Around MLB

Mariners Get Depth, Blue Jays Get Better - Fangraphs
One trade the Mariners already have made is a swap of outfielder Michael Saunders to the Blue Jays for pitcher J.A. Happ, with Jeff Sullivan concluding that, while Toronto got the better of the deal, he can still see Seattle's rationale.

Markakis' health may have persuaded Orioles to let him leave - FOX Sports
Free agent outfielder Nick Markakis signed a four-year, $44 million deal with the Braves yesterday, after having spent the entirety of his nine-year career in Baltimore. Ken Rosenthal reports that a back issue may have dissuaded the notoriously health-conscious Orioles from re-signing him.

Another look at the Josh Donaldson trade

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Josh Donaldson is on the high end of age for players entering arbitration. Did this play a role in why the A's traded him?

Last week the Athletics traded Josh Donaldson to the Blue Jays for Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman, Sean Nolin and minor leaguer Franklin Barreto. The trade was covered very well by Beyond the Box Score associate editor Nick Ashbourne, and I'll freely admit I don't really understand it, particularly from the standpoint of the Blue Jays.

Donaldson is an interesting case, one of those late bloomers who performs at a high level after getting a late start. I define late bloomer as a player aged 24 or more when he amassed at least 300 plate appearances in his rookie year (defined as the year in which a player makes his 130th at-bat or 45 days on the active roster). This Google Docs spreadsheet shows the late bloomers meeting this criteria since 1970 at every position, and it's a healthy-sized list with over 500 players. There are any number of stories behind some of these players -- Ichiro Suzuki came over from Japan, Carlton Fisk and Wade Boggs are Hall of Famers, Mike Piazza should be and so on.

Donaldson's route to the majors was a bumpy one. He started out as a catcher in the Cubs system and was traded to the A's in 2008 as part of a package for Rich Harden. The A's thought so highly of him to move him to third and leave him in the minors until 2010 and not give him serious playing time until 2012. They certainly haven't been disappointed since then as he's been the most valuable third baseman in baseball since 2013 by a very healthy margin.

So why trade him now? Donaldson put up this production for little more than the minimum salary and is set to receive his first real payday. He's arbitration-eligible for the next four years, and looking at his comps suggests salaries somewhere in the $6-10 million range. Of course, the Blue Jays could short-circuit the entire process and sign him to a long-term deal, but consider the aging curve for third basemen:

3B Aging Curve

You can read more about aging curves in this post -- this chart shows the number of players with at least 300 PA who played at least fifty percent of games at third since 1960. Around 28, players peak and gradually begin to decline. Compared to other positions, the aging curve at third is much gentler, but it's there nonetheless, and possibly a motivating factor for Billy Beane to trade Donaldson -- perhaps he thought he'd seen Donaldson's best years and wasn't prepared to spend big money for what very well could be past performance.

In effect Beane traded a 29-year-old Donaldson (in 2015) for 25-year-old Brett Lawrie, who's also arbitration-eligible for the next four years. Lawrie is a tantalizing player, but one who can't stay healthy and hasn't had more than 500 PA in a season, which will drive his price down. If he can stay healthy (a huge "if" since players rarely get healthier as they age), he could be a steal.

Prior to the 2013 season the Blue Jays acquired Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes and Josh Johnson from the Marlins and R.A. Dickey and Josh Thole from the Mets, and in the process divested themselves of young talent like Henderson Alvarez, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jake Marisnick, and Travis d'Arnaud. They're still considered to have good prospects (reach your own conclusions with data from Daren Willman's MLBfarm.com) and the addition of Donaldson could be the final piece to supplement Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista and make them competitive in the AL East. They're not particularly interested in whether Donaldson is a late-bloomer and what his long term career will look like as much as if he can help them make the playoffs in 2015.

***IMPORTANT NOTE***

After I finished this post but prior to it being published, this report rolled across my Twitter timeline. Sometimes, it seems, it's more than just numbers and trends.

All data from Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs

Scott Lindholm lives in Davenport, IA. Follow him on Twitter @ScottLindholm.

Thoughts on the Saunders trade

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Another day, another trade. Alex seems to be having fun this winter. Last night's trade, like most of the trades Alex makes, came out of no where.

The Blue Jays trade of J.A. Happ for Michael Saunders looks, from here, like a good one for the Jays. And should make both players look better, sending Saunders from a pitcher's park to a hitters park and Happ doing the reverse. Happ will likely look good in a park where fly balls rarely reach the seats, as long as he keeps throwing strikes.

Saunders should enjoy hitting in Rogers Centre and being the lefty in a right-handed heavy lineup. Until the trade I figured that opposing teams would leave their lefty relievers at home, instead of flying them up to Toronto to watch games from the bullpen and daydream about getting into a game. He'll play better defense than Melky shoed us and, if platooned with Pillar should give us decent offense.

It, apparently, puts us out on Melky, but if this is true:

Then I'd be out on Melky anyway. I think 5 years is too long for him. He is only 30 and I don't begrudge him getting as much as he can. It is his big chance to make a ton of money. I just don't see him as someone I'd want to have on a 5-year contract. He hasn't been terribly consistent over his career.

The one complaint I've seen about the trade (and the Donaldson trade) is that they guys the Jays picked up aren't being paid very much. Now they aren't saying that there is anything bad about the players we got, they are just upset that they don't make a lot of money. As if the trading for Saunders would have been a better move if Michael was making $18 million a season. It is a concern that I don't really understand. Donaldson is very good player, and, by the end of his 4 years under team control he'll be making a long of money, he wouldn't be any better if he was making more money now.

Trading Happ makes space in the rotation for Aaron Sanchez, though I'd imagine he'll have to have a decent spring to get the spot. He will have competition for the spot Norris, Redmond, Estrada, Romero (just kidding) could all start. I was worried that the Jays would decide that Sanchez was needed in the pen.

Course, Alex has some money to spend, so he might just decide to go after a free agent starting pitcher. I have a feeling that he will keep some money aside in case the team feels the need to make a trade at the deadline. I don't think he'll want to give the players any excuses not to play hard to the end this time around.

Now that this hole is filled, Alex can start work on putting together the bullpen. Alex has said that he won't be spending a lot of money on a big free agent reliever, so David Robertson and Andrew Miller would be out of the running, but they do have Dioner Navarro to move, they should be able to get a decent bullpen arm for him.

Poll
What do you think about the Saunders/Happ trade?

  1434 votes |Results


Melky Cabrera seeks 5 year deal, return to Giants possible

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Cincinnati and Kansas City could also be landing spots for the 30-year old outfielder coming off of a solid season with Toronto.

Toronto initially was showing interest in resigning outfielder Melky Cabrera, but with the Blue Jays acquiring Michael Saunders from the Mariners on Wednesday night, Cabrera returning is not likely. Cabrera, according to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, is seeking a five-year deal, and a reunion with the San Francisco Giants remains possible.

In addition to San Francisco, both Kansas City and Cincinnati are interested in the 30-year old outfielder, who posted a .301/.351/.408 batting line in 139 games with the Blue Jays last season. Nelson Cruz received a four-year deal, and Cabrera may request a similar contract.

Multiple teams could make sense for Melky

Kansas City is looking to add a bat this offseason, however considering the defending American League Champions are a smaller market team, a move might have to be made if the club sees signing Cabrera as a realistic goal. The departure of Billy Butler, who signed a three-year, $30 million contract with Oakland, should create some extra payroll room. Heyman notes that the Royals' payroll is expected to be around $100 million in 2015, and a five-year contract could become too expensive.

The Royals were unsuccessful in their pursuit of Torii Hunter, and as a result could be encouraged to add a notable bat.

While Cabrera might be too expensive for Kansas City, the Reds' interest will be based on the club's long-term plans. Cincinnati has four starting pitchers who will become free agents at the end of the season, and rebuilding remains an option. The Reds have also been linked to Michael Morse and Norichika Aoki this offseason, but do not have a set left fielder, making Cabrera attractive.

Does Melky still fit with the Giants?

Cabrera hit 16 home runs and drove in 73 runs last season with the Blue Jays, and a reunion with the Giants is becoming increasingly plausible. San Francisco lost a key middle of the lineup bat in Pablo Sandoval, and is familiar with Cabrera, who spent 2012 with the club.

Major League Baseball suspended Cabrera in 2012 after he tested positive for PED use, but Ken Rosenthal notes on Twitter that the Giants, and other major league clubs, would not refuse to sign Cabrera because of his past.

Best available free agent catchers

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Wherein the word "best" is thrown around loosely.

When Russell Martin went off the market following a five-year, $82 million deal with the Blue Jays, the free-agent market for catchers went from slim to just about none. Martin was easily the class of a group that includes mostly aging former starters and once-promising players who have lost their way.

A.J. Pierzynski and David Ross fall into the former category. Pierzynski has been a negative-WAR player for two years running. His skills behind the plate are beginning to deteriorate with his bat, which managed an OPS+ of just 75 in 2014. Pierzynski hasn't received much interest thus far, but it would be hard to imagine a team not at least offering him a minor league deal at some point this offseason assuming he wants to continue playing.

Ross, meanwhile, has drawn interest from the Cubs, who are attempting to sign top free-agent hurler Jon Lester. Ross served as Lester's primary catcher for 29 games in Boston in 2013 and 2014. Like Pierzynski, Ross is 37 years old and has been steadily declining at the plate since a strong 2012 campaign. However, that's something the Cubs would likely put up with if it gives them a better chance of landing Lester.

Geovany Soto and Nick Hundley both had career-best performances at the plate in their age-27 seasons, but neither backstop has done much since then. Soto has failed to eclipse 200 plate appearances in a season since 2012, when he finished with a career-worst 63 OPS+. He was slightly above average in limited duty for Oakland last season, and because of a strong stretch earlier in his career during which he hit .254/.347/.452 with the Cubs, Soto still owns a decent career OPS+ of 102.

Hundley has fallen completely off the map since posting a 132 OPS+ for the Padres in 2011. He was close to league average while receiving a career-high 408 plate appearances two years later, but Hundley regressed down to a 79 OPS+ with the Padres and Orioles in 2014. Hundley is reportedly drawing interest from the Rockies, who are trying to trade incumbent catcher Wilin Rosario to an AL club that would be less affected by his poor defense.

John Buck, Gerald Laird and J.P. Arencibia are among several other uninspiring available catchers. None are likely to command much attention from teams with a need at the position due to either age, sustained ineffectiveness or both.

So just what exactly is a J.A. Happ, anyway?

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Now that the dust has settled a little bit, we should take a look at the newest starting pitcher on the Mariners.

Well, it's been just over 24 hours since the Mariners traded Michael Saunders to the Toronto Blue Jays, and even though I tried getting incredibly drunk and hallucinating an alternative situation before falling asleep to dream about the Condor still soaring over Safeco's right field grass, eventually waking up the next morning with the hope that everything was all just a dream.........it wasn't. Michael Saunders is still gone.

So instead of ruminating over this sad state of affairs, I thought we should maybe take a gander at what the Mariners got back in the trade, considering this changes quite a bit for 2015's game plan. None of this is to condone the trade or the logic that went into the whole thing, but now that the dust has settled a little bit, I think we could be pleasantly surprised at the Condor's return in former Jays' lefty J.A. Happ, who should help shore up what was already an intriguingly impressive starting rotation. So what does all this look like?

The Basics

As noted by Logan in his immediate reaction to the trade, Happ brings a pretty specific skillset to Safeco Field that should echo what we saw (on paper) from Jason Vargas and Joe Saunders over the past couple of years: the requisite veteran lefty filling out a deep rotation and taking advantage of a spacious outfield that is known for killing fly balls. But before we jump to today, let's take a look at where he came from.

Happ attended college at the prestigious Northwestern University, where he did amazing things like nearly complete a degree in history, rack up 251 strikeouts over three career seasons, and pose for this incredible photo in the school's directory:

Happ started work out of Northwestern's bullpen in 2002, eventually making his way to the Northwestern's starting rotation where he would go on to throw 94 innings in 2004, still fifth-best in school history for the single-season innings record. He was drafted in the third round in 2004 by the Phillies, jumping up and down between callups until he earned a permanent position in the rotation following the disastrous 2009 season of Chan Ho Park.

Happ's 2009 was a career year, with the left-handed rookie going 12-4 over 35 games with 2.93 ERA, good for 1.5 fWAR and the Sporting News' unofficial Rookie of the Year award, missing out on the actual award thanks to a late season surprise from the Cubs' Chris Coghlan, who would also have a bunch of awful years until figuring his shit out in 2014. Man, those were some dark years for baseball.

Then, because the Phillies are the Phillies, Happ was traded after his great year to the Astros on July 29th of 2010, where he spent two seasons and mostly floundered in mediocrity despite somewhat getting his mojo back in 2012. My favorite line on his Wikipedia page says that "On June 13th, 2012, Happ earned a place in history," which is absolutely amazing when you think about the stakes of that statment, but then continues to say "...as the opposing starting pitcher for Matt Cain's perfect game," and then you just kind of have to feel bad for the guy. By 2012, that was his place in history.

Still, Happ posted a 1.8 fWAR season in 2012, despite missing most of September with a fractured right foot after being demoted to the bullpen on a Blue Jays team that had traded for him only a few months prior. But then with a 2013 comeback ready to make J.A. HAPPEN, he made history yet again:

I remember watching this video on my phone as I was taking the bus back to my apartment that season. I nearly swallowed my tongue when I heard the sound of the ball hitting his head, and I'm pretty sure other people heard it through my headphones because the guy sitting next to me looked over at my screen and then chortled some kind of strange reaction at seeing a dead person on his seat partner's phone, and for a minute, I felt like I was watching something I maybe shouldn't have been watching. Which, I don't know, could still be the case.

But thankfully, Happ fully recovered and finished the year with 18 starts, 92 2/3 innings, and surprisingly, a 1.2 fWAR, nearly matching his previous season highs in 2009 and 2012 that saw him throwing 166 and 144 innings respectively. Happ started 2014 again on the disabled list, coming out of the bullpen but making his way back to the starting rotation by May, eventually settling in to become a solid part of the Blue Jays' rotation, posting yet another 1+ win season with an 11-11 record and a 4.22 ERA.

The Arsenal

All those ERAs and wins are great, but the interesting thing about Happ is that he's actually kind of like a lefty Chris Young, albeit a lefty Chris Young that can hit 93 and hasn't really had the opportunity of pitching in a park that really benefits his game. And you can see it in his xFIP--Happ has typically hovered around mid ~4's in his major league career:

YearxFIP
20094.43
20104.63
20114.59
20123.92
20134.82
20143.95

This is, of course, interesting when you think about the parks he has played in. Because xFIP is a predictive statistic designed to measure, essentially, how many homers the pitcher should have given up based on a league average HR/FB ratio, suddenly you have an interesting conundrum that could play pretty handily into the M's hands:

Happ pitched 2009 and parts of 2010 in Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, a relatively neutral park that has a somewhat generous left-field power alley for righties to take advantage of. Same for his time in Minute Maid Park from 2010-2012, which has an absolutely asinine center field but yet another generous left field corner, perhaps one of the most generous in the game. And, of course, his final seasons in Rogers Center, an extreme hitters park, also did him few favors. xFIP is not park adjusted, so suddenly those high fours look quite a bit better coming into Safeco Field, which, as we all know, certainly helped a certain pitcher enjoy a pretty remarkably successful season despite having an xFIP north of five.

Happ's arsenal consists of a fourseamer that hits 93, as well as a sinking fast ball, a 78 mph curve, an 86 mph changeup, and as is all the rage in baseball today, an 84mph cutter that actually rates as a plus pitch despite being part of the source of his flyball problem. This is interesting, because Happ is entering his age 32 season, and you would be right to worry about his velocity and his command, which has always been plagued with a bit of a walk problem. Except:

Look at the right side of that chart!

Happ has consistently added velocity since his earliest appearances in 2008, and fascinatingly, jumped from an average of 91.59 on his fourseamer in 2013 to an average of 93.44 in exactly a year's time. That's a crazy jump, and part of it seems to have come out of his reticence to rely on his breaking stuff when he gets in trouble. For more on that, be sure to check out a really interesting breakdown of one of Happ's most recent performance against the Mariners over at Yahoo! Canada, complete with quotes and graphs to get to know him a little better.

The Verdict

It's going to be interesting to see where Happ lands in the M's rotation, which already includes two seemingly solid left-handers in James Paxton and Roenis Elias. As Logan noted in his initial reaction, many have suggested this trade has given the Mariners a sudden surplus of pitchers in a market with rebuilding teams and bats to sell, but I really have no idea what to think about that. That, or I've just had enough of watching my favorite players leave town for a return I'm not sure I want yet.

But also don't forget that the Mariners' starting rotation wildly overperformed last year. Happ gives the M's a bit of insurance for probably less than Chris Young will end up costing someone else (miss you, Dad), and while Saunders is most assuredly going to be missed, we all know he wouldn't have even been utilized properly had he stuck around for another season.

None of this justifies what feels like, at the moment, yet another bizarre trade from Jack Z that seems to have come out of the pages of a comic book instead of a scouting report. But we shouldn't let that doctor our opinion of Happ, who could very well end up being a pretty solid pickup for the M's come May.

Now we just need to give the guy a nickname, because the Condor has left a pretty glaring empty nest in the corner of the dugout.

Baseball Prospectus Top 10 Blue Jays Prospects

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Baseball Prospectus gave their top 10Blue Jays prospects this morning (subscription required).

Here is their list:

1. RHP Aaron Sanchez
2. LHP Daniel Norris
3. CF Dalton Pompey
4. RHP Jeff Hoffman
5. C Max Pentecost
6. LHP Jairo Labourt
7. RHP Miguel Castro
8. RHP Roberto Osuna
9. RHP Sean Reid-Foley
10. RHP Alberto Tirado

Our system is heavy on the pitchers. BP says that most of the pitchers have the potential to be mid-rotation guys. Hoffman is the one they figure has a shot at being a top of the rotation starter.

They also listed 3 'Prospects on the Rise':

1. Anthony Alford

2. Matt Smoral

3. Dwight Smith, Jr.

About Alford they said:

Despite the lost development time, Alford is still only 20 years old and brings an element of power and speed to the table. The 6-foot-2 outfielder is extremely athletic and an outright physical specimen, possessing strong wrists and forearms that enable him to generate plus bat speed. The stroke is presently more designed to line-drive contact, but there's plenty of backspin created and he has the potential to add more lift as hitting experience builds. This prospect is something of a wild card, though, with a lot of rough edges, gaps to close, and time to make up. There's a feel here that as the body shapes into more of a baseball player and the level of experience builds, that this is a prospect who's going to take some steps forward as quickly as this season.

We can hope.

They also list 3 that are 'likely to contribute in the majors this year:

1. A.J. Jimenez. saying his biggest problem has been staying healthy.

2. Devon Travis: "will get a chance to push for the second-base job this spring and prove he can continue playing above what an initial glance at the package may suggest."

3. Tyler Ybarra.

Jimenez could be a back up catcher almost any time, if he could stay healthy. He does have a few guys in front of him at the moment, but, if Navarro is traded and if the team decides that Russell can catch Dickey, I'd wouldn't mind using A.J. over Thole. Neither is likely to hit much but Jimenez looks to be the better defensive catcher.

With Travis...I do think that if we don't sign someone in the next month, it would be a clear signal that the team is planning .to go with Travis. I thought Alex would go after Gordon Beckham, now that he's a free agent, but we haven't heard anything about that yet. If they did get Beckham, it would allow them to start Travis in Buffalo.

And they give their top 10 talents 25 and under:

1. Marcus Stroman
2. Aaron Sanchez
3. Drew Hutchison
4. Daniel Norris
5. Dalton Pompey
6. Jeff Hoffman
7. Max Pentecost
8. Jairo Labourt
9. Miguel Castro
10. Roberto Osuna

I do have high hopes for Hutchison this year. I hope that he's one that is helped out the most by Russell Martin. And being a year further removed from Tommy John can't hurt.

I wonder, if the Jays don't pick up a some relievers, if they would consider Castro for a spot in the pen at some point this year. He seems to have the stuff for a reliever. Maybe too early to think about that.

We'll have our own top prospects list coming out in January.

A's Fans are Lucky to Have Billy Beane as General Manager

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Alex Hall goes on the Phil Naessens Show and explains why the Josh Donaldson trade for Brett Lawrie makes sense.

I'm sure there are probably times when Billy Beane has left you scratching your head wondering why he's traded away one of your young stars. I'm also absolutely sure there are those reading this that are infuriated by Billy Beane and just wish he would go away forever. I know because this is what you tell me via email.

Billy Beane has balls my friend and I wish he were the General Manager of the New York Mets.

Look how many young stars Beane has traded away during his tenure. Alex rattled off quite a few of them on today's show. I forgot some of them played for the A's but that list is extensive and you know something? The A's still are still in the playoff hunt nearly every season.

When I heard Beane traded Donaldson to the Blue Jays it took me a while to understand it. I questioned Beane's sanity on Wednesday's show. Then the more I thought about it the more sense it started to make.

Sell high.

That's what Beane does over and over and over again. When you think about it how many of Beane's crazy trades have hurt the Oakland A's?

My New York Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson doesn't do anything other then sit on his hands. He let All Star and NL Batting champion Jose Reyes leave without getting anyone for him. He held onto Ike Davis too long and he could have sold David Wright high and gotten a haul for him. Instead he paid him 20 million a year to watch him age gracefully for at least 45 games or more per season on the DL.

Billy Beane would never have done any of that would he?

You A's fans are lucky to have Billy Beane!

We talked about the trade on today's show. Also appearing on the show today was Jason Walker to talk Fantasy Football and Travis Hrebeniuk to talk NHL Hockey and the gong show that are the Edmonton Oilers. I'll leave the player below or you can download the show from my site.

Saturday news roundup: Mariners talking to Melky Cabrera, looking at Alex Rios

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This hot stove cares NOT for your weekend.

A very strange thing happened during Nelson Cruz' press conference last Thursday afternoon. Someone asked Cruz why he chose to sign with the Mariners, and his response was "Because they offered to back up a semi truck filled with hundred dollar bills into my driveway and feed me grapes while massaging my feet." Actually, no. It was this:

Yes, a very strange development. And one that seems to be more fact than fiction: for if Jon Heyman's most recent piece has any legs, it looks like Melky Cabrera joining the Mariners could be a legitimate possibility during the Winter Meetings. That's right: the Mariners are on players' "win" lists. Take it or leave it.

The Melky-to-Seattle link was first noted by the Tacoma News Tribune's Bob Dutton, who noted that Jack Zduriencik had answered questions of potential right-fielder acquisitions handedness with a fantasy of acquiring a switch-hitter. Cabrera is the best remaining switch-hitting outfielder left on the market, and according to both writers, he has made it known he is willing to move out West for the right offer despite making it previously known he would prefer to remain in the East.

Despite being given a $15.3 million dollar qualifying offer by the Blue Jays, Cabrera decided to enter free agency seeking a five-year contract, turning down Toronto's apparently three-year deal that was also floating around in the process. As a result, he would cost the Mariners another draft pick, and according to Heyman, will probably end up costing close to $60 million over four or five years, similar to the four-year $57 million contract Cruz just signed.

Cabrera, 30, is a career .286/.339/.415 hitter over his ten seasons, coming up through the Yankees farm system in the mid-2000's with Robinson Cano, who remains a very close friend. Unlike Cruz, he doesn't offer the Mariners titanic power from the right side of the plate, owning a career isolated slugging percentage of only .129, weighed down by early seasons of scrub-level ineptitude that counter his previous few years as an efficient contact hitter who somehow developed a bit of power:

YearISOwRC+
2006.11198
2007.11789
2008.09268
2009.14294
2010.09877
2011.164118
2012.170151

Yeah...that near red-line discrepancy is exactly why Cabrera is such an interesting target during the offseason. It's no secret that Cabrera was suspended for 50 games in 2012 after testing positive for testosterone (and the best part of that story is that he made a phony website in the aftermath to try and beat the suspension, sending MLB investigators all the way to the Dominican Republic to try and figure out what the hell was going on), and many have wondered if that uptick in power is a direct result. Two years later, questions remain, and like Cruz, the biggest test seemed to be what would happen in the years following their PED suspensions. Would either return to form? Would the power uptick continue, or at least hang around levels of passable competency?

YearISOwRC+
2013.08186
2014.157125

As you can see, Cabrera had a harder time getting back on the horse than Mr. 40-Home-Run-137-wRC+-Nelson-Cruz did. In addition, he developed knee tendinitis during the 2013 season (which gave the Jays more Munenori Kawasaki, so you decide who really lost here), and only played in 88 games before getting surgery to make a comeback in 2014. And then, clearly, he had a much more palatable season to save his free agency hopes for 2015.

It seems at the very least that Cabrera isn't as sure of a shot as Cruz, and will probably end up costing about the same amount of money. But he remains the best free-agent outfield bat left unsigned, and doesn't cost the talent it would take to get just a year of Justin Upton. Or the behemoth return the Dodgers would probably want for Matt Kemp, who Dutton notes wouldn't fit well in the #2 slot that Lloyd is apparently trying to fill right now. Then again, Cabrera, typically a cleanup guyEdit 4:33pm: NOT a cleanup guy because apparently I like typing before looking things up, might not either. Also defense.

Still, just think of all those games started by Endy Chavez last year. And the fact that Michael Saunders is gone. And that outfield depth at the moment is....um...Willie Bloomquist. Not to jump to the not-my-money bit, but...Melky Cabrera would make the Mariners a much better team, and you can't deny that.

Yikes. If you want to cleanse your palette after that burst of spicy food, Heyman also has this for us:

Rios' 2015 option was declined by the Rangers on Wednesday, and although he put up a puzzling 0.2 fWAR season after somehow losing all of his power, he was worth three wins as recently as 2013. Rios rates as a better defender than both Cruz and Cabrera, though he has certainly been on the decline as he edges deeper on the wrong side of 30, apparently starting to break down like we all will someday, the ever-forward march of time turning us all to dust. Ah, baseball. Oh, and he just called up Scott Boras to be his agent, so yes, nothing is ever quite as perfect as it seems.

Rios will cost much less than Cabrera, both in money and years, as he's almost certain to sign for a one or two-year deal with his health and power concerns. But he's almost certainly Plan D, or G, for the Mariners, maybe even something lower down on the list--Rios is a riskier dice throw than Cabrera, and if we are to take any one of Jack or Lloyd at their words, the days of buy-low dice-throw guys have come and gone after a successful 2014 season.

The Winter Meetings will start on Monday, and truth be told, something entirely different could end up happening. Maybe we'll get another .gif of Jack Zduriencik learning that Prince Fielder cares not for our Space Needle and artisan coffeehouses. Then again, go to the top of this article and read the first few sentences again if you really think that. Buckle up, because it's about to get crazy.

A look at the roster turnover just two months into the offseason

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This Blue Jays offseason has been active. That might be the understatement of the year to be honest. While teams like the Yankees hardly made a notable move up until a few days ago, the Blue Jays transaction page is more jammed than the Maple Leafs bandwagon after a few consecutive wins. Last offseason saw very few moves made with the only big deal being the free agent signing of Dioner Navarro. For all intents and purposes the Opening Week rosters in 2013 and 2014 were essentially the same. That will certainly not be the case when the Blue Jays open the season in New York on April 6th next year.

Since we've seen so much roster turnover in the past few weeks, it seems like a good time to take a peek at just how extreme the changes between the 2015 and 2014 versions of the Blue Jays will be.

Infield

The infield experienced a fair amount of roster turnover this year and the changes likely aren't complete with only third base definitely being held down by a new player in Josh Donaldson. Jose Reyes will return to his shortstop position for the third year in a row which should remain a constant sight for Blue Jays fans until at least 2017. Second base hasn't really had a definite starter in a few years so it's kind of a position in constant turnover like a snowball rolling down a hill. It's seems like a solid bet that the player who appears in the most games at second base in 2015 is a player that isn't even on the roster yet. First base will be split between Edwin Encarnacion and Justin Smoak, which is a little bit of a change from the normal Encarnacion and Adam Lind combo that was used the past little while. The catcher position will also feature a new player in Russell Martin who takes over for Dioner Navarro, while the back-up catcher could also be a first-time Blue Jay as well.

Outfield

The outfield underwent the biggest changes from last season with only Jose Bautista remaining from a group of players that included Melky Cabrera and Colby Rasmus last year. Likely taking their places are soon-to-be 22-year-old Dalton Pompey in centre field and Michael Saunders in left field. Even the fourth outfielder duties split between Anthony Gose and Moises Sierra in early 2014 will be taken over by someone new this season with Kevin Pillar being the only candidate on the roster at this point in time. While the 2014 outfield seemed to be more of a sure thing, this 2015 edition brings a ton of upside with a much lower floor depending on how Pompey and Saunders end up performing.

Starting Rotation

The starting rotation underwent most of its turnover during the actual season in 2014, with Opening Day starters on the roster in Dustin McGowan and Brandon Morrow losing their jobs through a combination of injuries and bad performances. In stepped Marcus Stroman and a healthy J.A. Happ to complete a core set of five pitchers that started nearly every game for the team after the first month or so. It was expected this solid group would be given another chance to succeed in 2015 but as we know, Happ was shipped out earlier this week to Seattle meaning a new player will appear in the rotation when the team breaks camp in April.

Bullpen

The 2015 bullpen is very far from being set, but it's a guarantee that at least half of the pitchers who eventually make it will not have "Blue Jays Relief Pitcher 2014" on their résumé. Morrow, McGowan, Esmil Rogers, Jeremy Jeffress, Sergio Santos, and Casey Janssen are all gone as well as possible replacements in Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin. Filling in the holes could be any number of pitchers and likely only Brett Cecil and Aaron Loup are locks to retain their spot in 2015.

Any way you construct your dream roster for Opening Day next year, it's extremely likely that a maximum of 15 players will be returning from the 2014 squad. Compared to last offseason when only two or three spots changed hands, this is a massive turnover for the franchise. Obviously this also allows the media to push a narrative of the players undergoing a feeling out process if they lose a few series' to start the season. Thank goodness for that.


Washington Nationals likely to trade Tyler Clippard

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The 29-year old reliever could be pitching out of a different squad's bullpen in 2015.

With the Yankees signing Andrew Miller on Friday afternoon, the market for late inning setup options has quickly picked up. Sergio Romo and Luke Gregerson are among the veteran free agent setup men, but according to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, Nationals reliever Tyler Clippard will likely be traded this offseason and can help a team looking to upgrade the back of the bullpen.

Washington has a significant amount of right-handed relief options, and Clippard is expected to make $8 or $9 million in his last year of arbitration. In addition to having other relief options, which include Aaron Barrett, Craig Stammen, Blake Treinen, and Taylor Hill, the Nationals likely feel that Clippard is getting too costly. Although Miller was signed to a four-year, $36 million contract and Clippard has had comparable success, the Nationals' depth would make losing a consistent reliever such as Clippard manageable.

Clippard, 29, posted a 2.18 ERA and 2.75 FIP in 70.1 innings pitched in 2014. He also posted a 10.49 K/9 last season, the second highest of his career, and his 1.5 WAR was a career high. He has made at least 70 appearances in each of the last five seasons, and saved 32 games in 2012 while Drew Storen was out with an elbow injury.

Even with Clippard, Rafael Soriano, and Storen already in their bullpen, the Nationals still chose to pursue Grant Balfour last offseason. But with young arms looming, Washington likely won't be adding major pieces to its bullpen this offseason.

The Dodgers, Blue Jays, and White Sox are all teams that are seeking help in the back of their respective bullpens, Rosenthal notes, and Miller's contract can either lower or elevate the price of free agent relievers and setup men who are available through a trade.

Although there is no current favorite, the Dodgers can emerge as the frontrunner to acquire Clippard. The club didn't want to make Miller a four-year offer, is not interested in Brian Wilson, and wants to build around closer Kenley Jansen, who will earn $8.2 million next season, according to MLB Trade Rumors. No deal is imminent, however Clippard should be the topic of conversation for several teams at some point during the Winter Meetings.

Blue Jays rumoured to "love" closer David Robertson

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Quick: name all the Blue Jays pitchers who recorded a save in 2014.

In descending order by the number of saves: Casey Janssen (25), Brett Cecil (5), Sergio Santos (5), Aaron Loup (4), Aaron Sanchez (3), Dustin McGowan (1), Todd Redmond (1), and Marcus Stroman (1). For those good at math, that's eight different pitchers recording the 45 total saves last season, which happened to be the most in the major leagues last year, as well as the most in franchise history. That is more-or-less just party trivia, but it does give you the general idea that the bullpen wasn't very stable, especially in the beginning of the season when closer Casey Janssen was on the disabled list and in the second half of the season after Janssen's literally ill-fated vacation to the Dominican Republic.

The Toronto Blue Jays' bullpen had the major's fifth-worst bullpen FIP in 2014 at 4.05, and an eighth-worst shutdown-meltdown ratio (1.638). Casey Janssen, Brandon Morrow, Dustin McGowan, and Sergio Santos are free agents. Kendall Graveman and Sean Nolin are gone in trades. Clearly, the state of the bullpen is less of a pen and more of a gigantic hole ready for the foundation to be poured in.

This evening, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post tells us that the Blue Jays are smitten with righty David Robertson, having "engaged in dialogue" with his agent. Robertson did an admirable job closing for the Yankees in the first year of the post-Mariano Rivera era. In 64 innings over 63 appearances, he struck out 96 batters (13.4%) and walked 19 (3.22%), finishing with a 3.08 ERA / 2.68 FIP / and 2.13 xFIP. But the bullpen in the Bronx is a little bit more crowded now that Andrew Miller is now a Yankee.

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, Robertson has a $39-million, three-year offer from the Mystery Team, but with Miller signing for four years (though at a lower average annual value), Robertson is likely going to hold off putting his pen to the paper until he gets that extra year. Davidoff believes that the asking figure is $50 million--which is what the Phillies guaranteed to Jonathan Papelbon back in 2011 (there is also a vesting option for $16 million in 2016).

That is a lot of money to spend on a single reliever, even for one of the best in the game, and it just doesn't seem to fit in the style of general manager Alex Anthopoulos. On signing a big-ticket free-agent reliever, Anthopoulos has said that he "wouldn't necessarily completely rule it out", which is as close to a "no, we aren't going to do it" as you will get from him. The money will be better spent getting someone like Luke Gregerson, who was profiled by Noah Sherman earlier this offseason, and also somehow acquire someone who can sort of play second base as well as sort of be able to hit baseballs. Yes, the bullpen needs a rebuild, but getting Robertson will mean the other holes will have to remain unfilled.

I believe that the Blue Jays love David Robertson--I'm sure all 29 other teams do as well--but I don't think they will be willing to pay him as much as he wants. And the only way of loving him, baby, is to pay his lovely fee.

Blue Jays' owners seeking Paul Beeston's replacement, Dan Duquette and Kenny Williams are candidates

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If you are looking to change jobs, and have extensive experience working in baseball, here is a big opportunity for you: Rogers Communications, the owners of Toronto Blue Jays, are actively seeking a replacement for Paul Beeston as the club's CEO, reports ESPN's Buster Onley. This is the first solid confirmation that Rogers is looking for Beeston's successor despite knowing that his last contract ended in October this year. It is not known whether this new CEO would also assume the office of the president.

In this morning's tweet, Onley also suggested that Baltimore Orioles baseball operations vice-president and former Montreal Expos and Boston Red Sox general manager Dan Duquette is one of the candidates being considered. Kenny Williams, a former Blue Jays player (who almost killed the Jays' third-base coach at one point) and long-time front-office staff with the Chicago White Sox, is also in consideration. Recall that Williams was the one who successfully traded injured pitcher Mike Sirotka to the Blue Jays.

Beeston's role is primarily to be the contact point between ownership--that is, the board, the CEO, and upper management at Rogers--and general manager Alex Anthopoulos and the Blue Jays front office staff. He informs the front office of their expected payroll range, speaks with ownership about significant trades and signings, and sets general club policies like the "five-year rule" on free agent contracts. He is believed to also be heavily involved with club marketing, and has been overseeing renovations to the Rogers Centre in his capacity as the CEO of the stadium.

Paul Beeston was the president of COO of Major League Baseball and worked under outgoing Commissioner Bud Selig during that period. Onley suggested in his post that Rogers was not happy that Beeston picked the wrong horse in the race to replace Selig, having spoken strongly against Rob Manfred in the owners' conference call prior to the election.

The 69-year-old from Welland, Ontario, was one of the club's remaining charter employees, although he left the club in the late-nineties to work for Major League Baseball. In 2008, after the dismissal of Paul Godfrey, Beeston was re-hired as interim president & CEO and was charged with seeking the best candidate for the permanent job. Like Dick Cheney, he eventually settled into that job himself and has been in that seat ever since. He oversaw the hiring of Alex Anthopoulos, three managers, a very successful re-branding of the Blue Jays, several large trades, and the construction of the popular outfield porch at the Rogers Centre.

In a piece by Sportsnet's Shi Davidi, it was noted that Beeston's inner-circle in the Blue Jays organization. Rogers, and in Major League Baseball, has been slowly shrinking due to departures and retirements.

The cigar-chomping (and at times, sock-wearing) Beeston has been quite nice to us fans, and has been known to be quite candid about club affairs in one-on-one encounters when tape recorders and cameras are not turned on.

UPDATE

It may be difficult for the Blue Jays to interview Duquette and Williams, as they are currently under contract with their respective clubs still. Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal jumped in to the Beeston rumours around noon, saying that the White Sox are not willing to allow the Blue Jays to speak with Williams, but that he is thinking of resigning to pursue the promotion.

UPDATE 2 (from Tom Dakers)

It looks like this is moving fast.

UPDATE 3 (from Damaso's Burnt Shirt)

We are very pleased with his performance, and we expect him to satisfy his contract. We not only want him to, but we expect him to. We don’t want him to go away, and we don’t expect him to go away. And he’s given no indication he wants to go away. Suffice to say there is a contract that binds both parties to a four-year contract and binds Dan as the GM of the Orioles.

-Peter Angelos

Buzzkill or bargaining ploy.

UPDATE 4

Kenny Williams call the rumours involving his name to be a "non-story" right now, telling the Chicago Tribune's Colleen Kane that he was not granted permission for an interview and that the "ship has sailed." He then hinted that the Blue Jays had approached him in the past, saying that he did consider resigning at that time.

The rumours have now gained one more name: Minnesota Twins general manager Terry Ryan, who, according to an industry source who spoke with Pioneer Press's Mike Bernardino, is a name that the Blue Jays have considered. However, Bernardino later tweeted that the Blue Jays had not yet requested permission to speak with Ryan about the job. He also mentioned that Bernardino declined an offer to become the Blue Jays general manager in 2001, a job that ultimately went to J.P. Ricciardi.

Ryan is the preferred man for one anonymous Blue Jays official, again according to Bernardino. However, the decision is out of the hands of the front office as the whole proceedings is conducted at the ownership level.

Happy Birthday Bluebird Banter

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Bluebird Banter is Nine Years Old Today

Pass out the hats and horns, it's our birthday. Cake at Minor Leaguer's house.

Our little site is growing up. We are nine years old. The first post, welcoming people to the new site, is here. For some reason the byline says VoxMediaUser61249 now. It was written by Marc Normandin, who currently manages Over the Monster and writes for the SB Baseball mainpage. The first real story was about the trade for Lyle Overbay. The poll on the trade was very positive, 78% were happy with the trade (a total of 23 voters).

Marc didn't last long on the site. Mark W. and Slitheringslider soon took over. Then Hugo joined in 2007. Hugo was the reason I joined, I loved reading his stuff, though you often needed a dictionary and I loved the obscure song lyrics he used as post titles. Hugo took a break in 2008 and I filled in for him and I've been here since.

Over the years we've had lots of very good writers join us: JohnnyG, Jessef, Masterkembo and Woodman665. In 2011 Minor Leaguer joined and I don't know how we got along without him. ScottC joined us in Jan of 2013 and he has a whooping 439 posts to his credit, since then.

The great part about being here, for me, is reading the posts from everyone. We've been getting great posts from Nick Ashbourne, MjwW, Noah Sherman and Michael Bradburn. I learn something every day. And thanks to Bowling_Guy25 and Gerse for doing a great (if thankless job) as moderators. They wield the banhammer with grace.

If you want some stats. we have had 8103 posts on the site (I guess 8104 with this one). We've had 2009 FanPosts and 2229 FanShots. And, on a good day, we have well over 10 readers.

Ok, the last one is a joke. Last month we had 812,873, which seems like a pretty good number for the offseason.

Things have changed a fair bit. Back then the Blue Jays had someone named John Gibbons managing the team. And they were trying to remake the team, making some trades and some free agent signings. The team added Lyle Overbay, A.J. Burnett, B.J. Ryan and Troy Glaus all in that first month of BBB's life (well, Ryan was signed about a week before BBB started).

And things have changed for the site. We beat Twitter to the internet by 4 months and, of course, now we have a Twitter account and we have a Facebook page. If you don't already, we'd love you to follow us on Twitter and Facebook.

So thank you all for coming to read, thank you for your fan posts and comments, we wouldn't do this without you (because, you know, if you guys didn't come to the site, SB would have fired us long ago). The best part about the site is the friends I've made because of it. It's more fun now than back when I was the only one in the game threads.

Now I believe someone mentioned cake......

Orioles owner Peter Angelos on Dan Duquette rumors: "We're not relinquishing him, period"

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The Orioles owner put his foot down on the subject of whether Dan Duquette might be able to leave for the Blue Jays. Not if he has anything to say about it.

Orioles owner Peter Angelos seldom weighs in on the status of the team these days. Sunday afternoon's rumor that the Blue Jays CEO position would be opening up and that there was some reported interest from O's GM Dan Duquette was enough to get Angelos to comment. His comment, as told to MASN's Roch Kubatko, was simple: "We're not relinquishing him, period."

That is a straightforward response, although it could be seen to be more as staking a bargaining position rather than an ironclad statement. Duquette is under contract with the Orioles through the 2018 season. Leaving four years early even to take such a promotion is not something that can be done without the Orioles' permission. That doesn't mean he's not going to leave, but it probably means he won't be leaving for nothing.

Angelos also spoke to the Baltimore Sun, telling Dan Connolly: "We don't want (Duquette) to go away, and we don't expect him to go away. And he's given no indication he wants to go away." That Angelos hasn't heard from Duquette about this subject could mean the rumors are all overblown or that something really weird and possibly terrible is on the way.

Someone knows what's going on, but that someone's probably not talking to reporters about it.

In a funny bit of timing, the earlier reports about the Jays CEO position came out of the national baseball media even while the Orioles reporter contingent was on a flight to San Diego with Duquette. The O's GM is not expected to address a large media contingent until Monday.

Jim Duquette, who might have some inkling of how Dan feels about Baltimore, told MASN's Steve Melewski that Dan is not unhappy with things in Baltimore. "He loves it there," said Jim Duquette. "He's settled his family there, has a house there and loves the Orioles."

The O's beat writer contingent stood around a table while Dan Duquette went on to talk to Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on SiriusXM. Journalism gets pretty weird sometimes. This interview was previously lined up. He addressed the Jays rumor briefly before moving on to other topics, namely what he hopes to do to improve the Orioles this week.

"I do have a contract and I always honor my contract," said Duquette on the show. He also said that "we have a good thing going in Baltimore. I enjoy working with Buck." These are all warm, empty phrases, which is probably better than cold, empty phrases, but not any more meaningful.

Maybe it will all turn out to be a whole lot of nothing. It's still more of a distraction than you'd like for the Orioles to have heading into a crucial week of league meetings.

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