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Why Kenny Williams would leave Chicago

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Reports stating the Chicago White Sox have denied the Toronto Blue Jays to discuss President role with Williams.

Instead of hearing about if the Chicago White Sox are in negotiations with Chase Headley or if the Jeff Samardzija rumors carry any water, first day of the Winter Meetings was about Kenny Williams.

This time, it wasn't about a Free Agent target or a possible trade that Williams was speaking to. No, it was about Williams himself as it was reported on Sunday that he came this close to leaving Chicago, and become President for the Toronto Blue Jays.

From a team perspective, this rumor could be an unhealthy distraction. Hahn is well prepared to be pestered by reporters this week in San Diego about possible moves. These conversations fit right into his wheel house; calmly curbing everyone's enthusiasm and speaking in broad terms about how the organization will consider any transaction to help make the team better. Now, he has to talk about his boss.

Here are the questions that pop into my head for Hahn:

"Did you know about the offer?"

"Did you and Kenny Williams speak about the possibility of him taking the job in Toronto?"

"How can Williams help you build a championship team when he could possibly take the job with Toronto?"

Last year, when Hahn needed to convince Jerry Reinsdorf to grant the largest contract in team history to a largely unknown power hitter from Cuba, he got aid from Kenny Williams. It was Williams who joined Marco Paddy to watch Jose Abreu in the Dominican Republic. After he fell in love, the GM inside Williams unleashed to make sure that he, and the organization, got their man. Williams helped Hahn add to the team's core and found the successor to Paul Konerko.

It was last year when Williams foreshadowed the Adam Eaton deal before it broke and his proclamation was spot on.

"We have something we're working on that Rosenthal has no idea of that's going to make us more exciting to the fans and get a player that fans are going to gravitate to."

Funny, it was Ken Rosenthal who broke the news that Williams to Toronto was a serious possibility. While in San Diego this week, instead of speaking to the Samardzija rumors, or if the White Sox are the mystery team for certain Free Agents, both Williams and Hahn have to quiet the chatter before it becomes a distraction.

Shifting from the team perspective, to Williams view point. Why would he consider taking the President/CEO role with the Toronto Blue Jays? Simple, a lot more money and a better title.

This offseason, Andrew Friedman went from General Manager of the Tampa Rays to President of the Los Angeles Dodgers. His new contract? 5 years, $35 million. Besides the money and title, Friedman has the power to structure the Dodgers as he sees fit. Just like Theo Epstein for the Chicago Cubs, being President is more than building a team. It's about building the entire organization and handling the day to day business. Next step up from being President of a ball club is becoming an Owner.

Which is what Williams wants. He has spoken to this desire in the past when he accepted his current role with the club in 2012.  When Jerry Reisndorf announced that his family will not keep the White Sox after he passes away, naturally it's fitting to see Williams lead the charge in purchasing the club. However, it's not guaranteed that Williams could lead a group of investors to be the highest bidder, or when that opportunity will arise.

After all of the hoopla, this has become a "non-story", with Williams focused on helping Hahn build a contender. It wouldn't be the end of the world if Williams left for another gig. If Williams feels he's ready for more responsibility, one that the White Sox won't offer to him, then by all means he should pursue it.

It's just a hard sell to fans that Williams is committed to help build a championship team again in Chicago, when it seems he was ready to turn in his two week notice.


Kansas City Royals open to trading Greg Holland, Wade Davis

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The Toronto Blue Jays have already shown interest in Holland, while Davis could be an attractive arm for teams looking for late-inning relievers.

Upon arriving in San Diego, the Kansas City Royals have made Greg Holland and Wade Davis available, according to Bob Elliot of The Toronto Sun. Elliot notes that Holland is available but the Royals are asking for a significant amount in return, and that the Blue Jays have already shown a significant amount of interest.

Holland was 1-3 with a 1.44 ERA and 1.83 FIP in 62.1 innings pitched last season. He converted 46 of 48 saves for the defending American League champions, and held opposing hitters to a .170 average for a second consecutive season. Holland is eligible for arbitration, and is an option for teams looking for a closer. The small market for setup men and closers should make Holland attractive at this week's Winter Meetings.

While Elliot cites a source familiar with the situation saying that "they are asking for a lot," Kansas City will likely pursue a starting pitcher in return. With James Shields testing the free agent market, the Royals are looking to add a front of the rotation arm. Holland has saved 113 games in his major league career, and has posted a career 2.19 ERA and 2.06 FIP.

The Blue Jays, who are looking to find a closer this week, are reportedly pursuing Holland. He will likely get expensive in his final two years of team control, but Toronto might prefer acquiring Holland over giving a large contract to free agent David Robertson, who Houston is interested in.

Holland could be dealt rather quickly, however the Royals are only fielding offers for Davis. In 72 innings with the Royals last season, Davis posted a 1.00 ERA and 1.19 FIP. Some of the better late-inning relievers are available through trades, as Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal reported last week.

Kansas City is seeking outfield help as well, and will use either Holland and Davis as trade chips to add an outfielder or starting pitcher. Nothing appears imminent, and considering they are looking to contend in 2015, the Royals don't have to move either of the two if they can't find a deal they like.

Terry Ryan among names Blue Jays like to fill role of President and CEO

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Toronto needs a new head honcho. They like the Twins' General Manager.

It's unfortunate that Paul Beeston's time with the Toronto Blue Jays ended as it has. He was the very first employee of the organization in the mid-70s, eventually spending 12 years in the commissioner's office before yeading back to Toronto in 2009. But it sounds like those in the know weren't happy with his part in finding baseball's next commissioner, and it may ultimately lead to Beeston's retirement.

As rumors circulated as to whom the Blue Jays could tab as his replacement, the most popular theories were that the Canadian club would look outside of the organization. Executive Vice Presidents Dan Duquette of the Orioles and Kenny Williams of the White Sox were the early names divulged, before Twins General Manager Terry Ryan's name dropped into the fray. Ryan has earned himself a reputation for having a good eye for developing talent, but he's been less successful in building a competitive Major League team while the farm system cooks.

Minnesota could ultimately demand compensation for Ryan, 61, should both organizations have interest in exploring a deal. From where we sit that does seem highly unlikely. Ryan and the Twins value loyalty to a fault, and while Ryan's vision for the near-term may draw questions from fans his desire to see things through and to see the team be competitive again are sincere.

Ryan turned down the opportunity to become the Blue Jays' General Manager in 2001, and as of right now it doesn't sound like they have requested permission to speak with Ryan. As a result it's very, very difficult to see Ryan going anywhere. When Toronto does eventually find their candidate, it won't be him.

Blue Jays claim Chris Colabello off waivers

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Godspeed, Bello. May your feel-good story come to fruition in Toronto.

If the Twins want to make a move in the near-term, they now have room on the 40-man roster. Chris Colabello has been claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays.

Minnesota's 40-man roster now stands at 39. The obvious takeaway is that there's now space on the roster if the team wants to take part in Thursday's Rule 5 draft, but it also opens up flexibility for a trade or free agent signing. Even if Colabello hadn't been claimed by Toronto, he was on his way off of the 40-man. After hitting .214/.284/.364 in 401 plate appearances between 2013 and 2014, it's not a surprise that the Twins have decided the roster spot could be better used.

I'll update this post with links to Colabello's history with the Twins.

Chris Colabello: 2013 non-roster invitee |  Free Chris Colabello |  Chris Colabello and going the other way |  Who should DH for the Twins this year? |  5 questions for the regular season |  2014 Twins opening day roster |  HOW BOUT THAT CHRIS COLABELLO |  Twins sweep double-header |  The legend of Chris Colabello |  One last recall for Chris Colabello

Blue Jays claim 1B Chris Colabello off waivers from Twins

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The first actual Blue Jays news from the Winter Meetings in San Diego is that the team has claimed first basemen Chris Colabello off waivers from the Minnesota Twins. The Italian-American grinded out seven years in independent ball after playing Division II college ball before eventually being signed by Minnesota in 2012.

He made his major league debut in 2013 at the ripe age of 29-years-old and played a total of 55 games during that season. This past year he saw his total number of games boosted to 59 with a slash line of .229/.282/.380 and six home runs adding up to a wRC+ of 85. With all the reporters down in San Diego, Shi Davidi was the first to grab the news although there's no word on whether Colabello would also accept the role of President with the Blue Jays:

The Blue Jays had a couple spots on their 40-man roster and Colabello will make the league minimum this year, so it wasn't a horrible idea to pick him up. He hits right-handed pitchers slightly better, but there's no real platoon option and he will likely compete in Spring Training for the last spot on the bench with the big league squad.

The power hitter was recently mentioned in a piece over at FanGraphs as a player that is an affordable power bat from the right side. With 600 plate appearances, Steamer projects Colabello to hit 20 home runs with a wRC+ of 105. Our own Minor Leaguer also wants it to be known that his name means "beautiful soda pop" in Italian. The first baseman can also play in the outfield as well, but he probably shouldn't based off his -7.8 UZR in right field over just 201 innings at that position in the major leagues. All in all, another solid move with very little downside involved.

Melky Cabrera free agency rumors: Mariners 'favorites' for the switch-hitting outfielder, per report

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The Mariners could be set to add another bat in free agent outfielder Melky Cabrera.

The Seattle Mariners are currently the "favorites" to sign free agent outfielder Melky Cabrera, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

Even after signing Nelson Cruz to a four-year, $57 million contract last week, the Mariners are still looking to add an outfield bat to their lineup. The club has considered trades for Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Evan Gattis and Yoenis Cespedes, but also have an interest in Cabrera, who is seeking a five-year deal.

Per Heyman, Seattle is willing to give the switch-hitting Cabrera a contract similar to the one they handed Cruz. That likely makes the outfielder too pricey for teams like the Royals and White Sox, who have also been linked to him. Those figures could also lead the Blue Jays, who have shown an interest in re-signing Cabrera, to look at other options. Furthermore, Seattle already forfeited its first-round pick to sign Cruz, meaning the Mariners have less to lose in draft compensation (a second-rounder) than any of the aforementioned suitors besides Toronto (who would lose nothing to re-sign their own player).

The 30-year-old Dominican Republic native batted .301/.351/.458 with 16 home runs and 54 extra-base hits for the Blue Jays in 2014, bouncing back from a disappointing campaign the season prior. After signing a two-year deal with Toronto before 2013, Cabrera hit just .279/.322/.360 with three home runs in his first year with the Jays.

Cabrera was on pace for a career season back in 2012, hitting .346/.390/.516 through 113 games for the Giants, before a suspension for PED use cut his season short. Although his 2013 struggles shouldn't be forgotten, Cabrera's bounce-back performance this past year rebuilt much of his value and will garner him a multi-year contract.

The Mariners, for their part, look motivated to add to their offense after finishing just one game short of a playoff spot in 2014. With Robinson Cano (who is friends with Cabrera) on the roster and Cruz already signed, Seattle is moving closer and closer to legitimate contention in the AL. Adding Cabrera would provide further help to an offense that finished tied for 11th in the AL in runs scored last season and an outfield group that hit just .243/.387/.357 combined.

Athletics trade Jeff Samardzija to White Sox in 6-player deal

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The right-handed starter is eligible for free agency after 2015.

The Oakland Athletics have traded pitcher Jeff Samardzija to the Chicago White Sox in a six-player deal, the teams announced on Tuesday. Oakland sends Samardzija and pitcher Michael Ynoa to Chicago for infielder Marcus Semien, pitcher Chris Bassitt, catcher Josh Phegley and first baseman Rangel Ravelo.

The trade was first reported on Monday night by Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

Samardzija has been on the trading block since the A's sent Josh Donaldson to Toronto two weeks ago, and now the right-hander appears to be headed back to Chicago after Oakland acquired him from the Cubs in July.

The 29-year-old Samardzija would join a solid, young White Sox rotation that already includes Chris Sale and Jose Quintana. Despite an 89-loss season in 2014, the White Sox have been aggressive this offseason, inking Adam LaRoche and Zach Duke to two-year deals.

Samardzija finished the 2014 campaign with a 2.99 ERA and 3.20 FIP, striking out 202 batters and walking 43 in 219⅔ innings. After arriving in Oakland, the right-hander posted a 3.14 ERA in 16 starts.

For the A's, dealing Samardzija continues an offseason of bold, polarizing trades. They already sent their best player in Donaldson to the Blue Jays and another top hitter in Brandon Moss to the Indians, and now they're on the verge of trading Samardzija after acquiring him just five months ago for top prospect Addison Russell. Oakland's collapse down the stretch has led Billy Beane to be aggressive in reshuffling his roster.

The White Sox, meanwhile, have put themselves in an intriguing position in the AL Central heading into 2015. With Sale, Quintana and now likely Samardzija in the fold (as well as 2014 first-round pick Carlos Rodon on the way), Chicago has the makings of a formidable young rotation. With Jose Abreu holding down the middle of the lineup, the White Sox could be big players in a division whose balance of power will be shifting over the next couple seasons.

Dane Johnson to be named Blue Jays bullpen coach

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According to Sportsnet's Shi Davidi's report, Dane Johnson will be the Blue Jays' next bullpen coach, replacing Bob Stanley who returns to minor league coaching, this time with double-A New Hampshire. Johnson was re-assigned from his role as the Blue Jays' minor league pitching coordinator.

Dane Johnson, now 51, pitched in just ten games (in 1996) for the Blue Jays in his career but for some reason I remember his name from when I was a kid. He was actually Blue Jays second-round draftee back in 1984 but was still stuck in but he never made it beyond high-A Dunedin in his first stint in the organization before getting released in 1989 when he slid back to low-A at age 26. He went over to Taiwan to pitch a couple of years before returning to North America to coach in college. A year later, he found his way back to playing baseball then later landed with the Jays in 1996 as a minor league free agent, signing during spring training before spending much of that season as the closer for the Syracuse Chiefs. He went on to the A's organization on a waiver claim and pitched 38 games in 1997 before the Jays re-claimed him after the season. He spent 1998 in Syracuse before heading to the Marlins organization.

He had a brief stint in the independent leagues in 1999, then returned to the Blue Jays organization as a pitching coach, going through Medicine Hat, Auburn, and New Haven before settling into the role of pitching coordinator in 2004. Having remained in that role for ten years shows how highly-regarded the Blue Jays think he is as an instructor for young pitchers. The club rewarded him with the Bobby Mattick Award Player Development Award twice: in 2002 and in 2010 as one of two Blue Jays minor league coaches who have ever been awarded twice.

The role of the bullpen coach is really a secondary pitching coach, not necessarily one who works exclusively with relievers. With the likes of Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, Dan Norris, and Drew Hutchison looking like they will be getting significant big league time in 2015, Johnson may be the right fit at the right time, having worked with all those pitchers in the recent past.

I wonder whether the club made this move in an attempt to keep him in the organization. He had been coaching in the minor leagues with the organization for 14 years and have seen others--like Pete Walker--pass him by to get big league jobs.

Johnson was a huge proponent of getting Sanchez to work on developing his change-up, and Daniel Norris has always spoken highly of Johnson as someone who worked to revamp his mechanics--and was also there as a therapist to help him with his mental game.

Of course, most Blue Jays fans who know Dane Johnson probably remember him from his unsuccessful project at making Ricky Romero throw good again at the beginning of last season. Johnson and Romero worked together in Dunedin--separate from the rest of the Florida State League team--and ended up revamping the former all-star's delivery. Five weeks of hard work culminated in Romero's return to the big leagues against the Mariners, a start for which Johnson himself made the trip up to Seattle. Romero was kind of bad that night, but not as horrible as his return to Rogers Centre five days later.

Then Romero decided to throw everything Johnson and he worked on and went back to his old pitching style. As they say, you can take a horse to the water, and even make it drink, but you can't stop him it spitting it out and never drinking water again after choking on the first sip.

These are just little snippets, but it does seem to indicate that Dane Johnson is a hard-working guy who has had some pretty good successes with young pitchers, and is able to really help them adjust mechanically. His ability to deal with grizzled major leaguers is still questionable, but then again I doubt they will be lining up to ask him for help.

With this hire, the Blue Jays' 2015 coaching staff under manager John Gibbons seem to be complete:

  • DeMarlo Hale, bench coach
  • Brook Jacoby, hitting coach
  • Pete Walker, pitching coach
  • Dane Johnson, bullpen coach
  • Tim Leiper, first-base coach
  • Luis Rivera, windmilling third-base coach

The Blue Jays bullpen needs new pieces, but a closer might not be one of them

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A topic that has seemed to fly under the radar so far this offseason with so many other key talking points is that the Blue Jays bullpen is going to look vastly different in 2015 than it did in 2014. This past season saw Casey Janssen and Dustin McGowan have the third and fourth most appearances out of the bullpen, while Sergio Santos was seventh. Those pitchers have all obviously departed and there is very little chance of them coming back in free agency. What remains in the bullpen is two dominant cost-controlled lefties, a few middle of the road righties, and one or two starters who may end up relieving. That might not work out so well. While other holes in the team like second base and left field were talked about ad nauseam in November, the bullpen snuck under the radar a bit and has only emerged as a point of emphasis recently thanks to some of the other holes being filled.

There definitely has been a few examples of patched-together bullpens lacking any big names succeeding in the majors recently but with the window closing on the Blue Jays current group of players, that might not be the best strategy to employ. I originally planned to write about how Brett Cecil should be the player that the Blue Jays promote to their closer position, but John Gibbons decided to steal my fire and state that this was already the team's plan:

What Gibbons says is pretty accurate aside from the obvious question of why the team would consider Marco Estrada as a closer other than to possibly create trade value. Cecil is the clear in-house option for the closer role, although a lot of people (including me) would prefer the team to employ a much more efficient closer by situation setup. Whether the lefty ever ends up being given the closer job really depends on what acquisitions Alex Anthopoulos makes to the bullpen before the team breaks camp in April. With a team full of stars ready to contend for the playoffs, throwing in a first-time closer may be a risk that the front office is not willing to take although it could pay off big-time.

What the team currently does have, is formidable setup guys in Aaron Loup and Brett Cecil along with solid if unspectacular righties in Todd Redmond and Steve Delabar. Assuming Aaron Sanchez is stretched out to become the fifth starter, then Marco Estrada will join Chad Jenkins, Rob Rasmussen, Kyle Drabek, and Liam Hendriks in a competition for the bottom two places in the major league bullpen depth chart. The obvious hole is a right-handed pitcher somewhere in the business end of the bullpen to counter the southpaws Loup and Cecil. Thankfully the option to have Cecil close gives Anthopoulos flexibility when trying to make the necessary additions to the bullpen. The team won't have to throw money at a closer with a bunch of saves to his name as they already have a suitable option in-house that just lacks the star power of the pricey free agents. Casey Janssen was eased into the role as a former setup guy before going on to become one of the best in the league and it wouldn't be a shock if the same thing happened to Cecil.

The situation also has obvious parallels to the Oakland Athletics last offseason who lost their All-Star closer Grant Balfour to the Rays in free agency. They felt the need to replace him with another high-profile closer in Jim Johnson who proceeded to implode in the Bay Area leaving Oakland to pay $10 million to a reliever they couldn't trust. The man who stepped in and saved the day was former setup man and left-handed pitcher Sean Doolittle who went on perform extremely well and also earned an All-Star nod. The A's were still smart enough to recognize the potential of Doolittle before last season though and signed him to an extension avoiding the pay increases that can come with high save totals. If the Blue Jays could learn anything from the mistakes Billy Beane and the A's made last year, it's that sometimes the best closer is right under your nose. In a time when saves still drive arbitration contracts and closers receive too much credit compared to other relievers, it takes guts for a team to throw a setup man into the ninth inning based solely on his *GASP* pitching ability. Cecil has faced tons of high leverage situations in the seventh and eighth innings of games before and the jump to the end of the game shouldn't make his heart beat any faster.

After flaming out as a starter, Cecil saved his career by quickly transitioning into a reliever role and has had two years of 60+ appearances with sub-3.00 ERAs and FIPs. There's no troubling signs in his peripherals either, as even a .344 BABIP last season couldn't slow down the Maryland native who boosted his strikeout rate to a career high. By perfecting his spike curveball he has become a rare pitcher that throws primarily the curve, while his fastball usage lags far behind. In 2014, Cecil threw the curveball 6% more than any other reliever in baseball and over the past two years it has a whiffs/swing rate of more than 50% providing good reason for him to lean on it so heavily. The comparison to Doolittle returns when you consider that the A's closer also led the league in the rate which he threw his primary pitch, the fastball, and yet he still managed to succeed despite his perceived predictability.

Cecil has also seen his velocity greatly with his move to the bullpen, which has made his fastball a dependable second pitch and helped him become slightly less predictable:

It's slightly worrying that the Blue Jays seem so zeroed in on finding a direct replacement to Casey Janssen when they could instead add a reliable right-hander that fits the setup role and promote Cecil to the closer position. As the season rolls along the bullpen usually does become a "crapshoot" and it would be disappointing if the team used their remaining budget space trying to fill a hole that might not exist at all. If the Blue Jays were able to flip Dioner Navarro for a consistent right-hander, the team would solve two problems at once while providing John Gibbons flexibility with the bullpen that he currently doesn't have. Having two lefties setting up a right-handed closer would be a simple case of becoming a slave to the save and would limit the effectiveness of the 'pen. With all of the roster turnover so far this offseason, maybe the closer role is one hole that can actually be solved in-house.

Poll
Would you be happy with Brett Cecil as the closer on Opening Day?

  1315 votes |Results

Dan Duquette staying with Orioles; Blue Jays CEO won't be replaced after all

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After the rumor over the weekend that Orioles GM Dan Duquette would be a candidate to replace the Blue Jays CEO, it turns out the Blue Jays aren't even replacing their CEO. So what was the point of all of that?

Over the weekend, a crazy-sounding rumor surfaced that the Blue Jays would be replacing their CEO and Orioles GM Dan Duquette was one of the candidates. It was enough to bring Peter Angelos out into the open to say that the O's wouldn't be relinquishing Duquette. Buck Showalter said he didn't think Duquette would go anywhere. Duquette, for his part, emphasized that he was here to put together the best Orioles team he possibly could.

On Tuesday, the Blue Jays were set to announce that their existing CEO, Paul Beeston, would be remaining for at least one more season. There isn't even going to be a job opening for which Duquette might possibly be targeted after all.

So why did we all spend the weekend pontificating about what might or might not happen with Duquette, what might possibly be the motivation for the news leaking and so on? Why, indeed. The offseason is boring enough that you can get caught in a flight of fancy. None of us are immune to a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

The anatomy of it all is still something that would be interesting to know. Who was responsible for the story first hitting the press? What was that person's motivation for doing so? What kinds of conversations took place behind the scenes among the Orioles' principals about the rumor? If it was always destined to be nothing, why did Angelos feel the need to come forward with a full-throated statement about Duquette remaining with the Orioles?

At least one person knows the answer to each of these questions, but now that the matter is settled, they probably won't be talking any more. Unless this topic comes up again a year from now, we'll never know what it was all about. Here's hoping this is the last we have to hear about it.

Cubs acquire Miguel Montero from Diamondbacks for 2 minor league pitchers

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The Cubs are close to landing catcher Miguel Montero in a trade with the Diamondbacks, according to reports.

The Chicago Cubs have acquired catcher Miguel Montero from the Arizona Diamondbacks on Tuesday, per multiple reports.

The deal is pending a physical for Montero, per Carrie Muskat of MLB.com, and was first reported as nearly complete on Monday night by Jon Morosi and Ken Rosenthal, both of Fox Sports.

The D-backs shed themselves of the $40 million remaining on Montero's contract over the next three years, and also acquire minor league pitchers Jeferson Mejia and Zack Godley, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.

The Cubs have been in search of catching options this offseason and just missed out on free agent Russell Martin before he agreed to a five-year deal with the Blue Jays. With Welington Castillo the team's current starter behind the dish, Montero would provide the Cubs with some added depth at the position.

The 31-year-old Montero hit .243/.329/.370 with 13 home runs in 2014 and has seen his performance at the plate decline in the last two seasons. He batted just .230/.318/.344 in 2013 and has posted an OPS below .700 in back-to-back years after averaging .817 from 2009 to 2012.

Still, Montero would be an upgrade over Castillo, whose defense is a big question mark. His offense also stagnated this past season, and Castillo has never played more than 113 games in a single campaign since debuting in the majors in 2010.

Montero is owed $12 million next season before earning $14 million in 2016 and again in 2017. With the Cubs' rebuilding project coming to an end and a bevy of young talent set to arrive soon at Wrigley Field, Montero would join a team that hopes to begin contending again soon in the NL Central.

Mejia, 20, had a 2.48 ERA in 12 games, including two starts, in the rookie-level Arizona League in 2014, with 45 strikeouts and 17 walks in 40 innings. Godley, drafted by the Cubs in the 10th round in 2013, was 4-3 with a 3.09 ERA in 40 relief appearances between Class-A Kane County and Advanced Class-A Daytona, with 52 strikeouts and 17 walks in 40 innings last year.

The Blue Jays are going to have to chose between Steve Tolleson and Danny Valencia

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He's an average utility infielder with no minor league options on the wrong side of 30 who hits lefties well but gets dominated by right-handed pitchers. That statement describes Steve Tolleson...or does it describe Danny Valencia? It actually describes both pretty accurately. That's why eventually the Blue Jays will have to decide which player to carry on their active roster and which to DFA before next season gets underway at the beginning of April. In 2014 the team's lack of roster flexibility reared its ugly head too often and carrying two nearly identical players in 2015 would be a step towards doing the same thing again. Assuming the Blue Jays carry one extra outfielder and one back-up catcher there will be room for two bench infielders. Those spots certainly shouldn't be filled by Tolleson and Valencia.

Most fans know that the two players fall into a similar category, but when you look at the numbers the comparison becomes even more clear:

via FanGraphs

The first splits belong to Tolleson while the latter line belongs to Valencia. Both players are actually southpaw mashers and deserve to see a fair amount of at-bats against opposite-handed pitchers. The problem is that obviously neither player should face right-handed pitching very often, although it did become a disturbing trend for Valencia after he was acquired last season. In fairness the former Royal holds his weight against same-handed pitchers a lot better than Tolleson making him slightly more flexible, but that certainly isn't saying a lot.

The defensive positions the two play are slightly different with Tolleson mainly seeing time at second and third base, while Valencia usually mans third and first. An interesting possibility that could become reality is Valencia being used at second base as well (as he was in limited innings in Kansas City) making Tolleson all but redundant and increasing the value of Valencia even more. Both players play a mediocre third base, while neither of them is exactly Ryan Goins at second base further limiting their ability to start anywhere on the diamond consistently.

While the second base job could come down to any number of alternatives, the utility job really boils down to Maicer Izturis and the two subjects of this piece. Assuming none of these players are moved before March, this spot on the 25-man roster will be won in Spring Training with the chance that Tolleson and Valencia both make likely being very close to zero. If Ryan Goins loses the second base job, then he and one of Tolleson or Valencia could combine to form a sort of utility platoon that could actually be quite effective if used correctly and if Goins is able to manage to hit righties a little bit.

The contracts are slightly different as Valencia will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this year and is projected to make $1.7 million, while Tolleson is still below the key three years of service time. This $1 million difference in salary shouldn't change the conclusion that Valencia is the better option for this role with his superior ability at the plate and average defence in the field. As we saw over the course of the 2014 season, Tolleson is certainly a dependable bench option and it would be a great outcome if he was snuck through waivers to bide his time in Buffalo until a need for him arises assuming he accepts the outright assignment. The only true bad outcome would be if a lack of other options led to both players to making the roster and filling almost identical roles.

Blue Jays 2015 Winter Tour

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The Blue Jays announced their Winter Tour plans for 2015. They are going to visit Toronto, Calgary (yay) and Vancouver.

Toronto:

Blue Jays:Jose Bautista, R.A. Dickey, Aaron Loup, Todd Redmond, Dalton Pompey and ACE.

January 16:

7:00 to 9:00 am: Breakfast television.

11:00 am till 12:00 pm: Rogers Center (Media Availability " to local credentialed print, TV & radio media"...notice it doesn't mention blogs anywhere in there).

1:45 to 2:45 pm: Visit to Joshua Cree Public School (private).

Evening: Visit to Ronald McDonald House (private).

January 17:

11:00 am to 12:30 pm: Autograph session at Eaton Centre. (get there early, they will have too many people to sign for everyone).

Calgary/Banff

Blue Jays:Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Kevin Pillar, Drew Hutchison, Roberto Alomar and ACE

January 20

7:00 to 9:00 am: Breakfast Television.

9:30 to 10:00 Palliser Hotel (Media availability, half an hour.......oh well).

Afternoon: Visit to the Alberta's Children Hospital.

5:30 to 7:00 pm: Autograph Session at Cross Iron Mills Mall. (again, be early, they will have a long line).

January 21

1:30 to 2:30 pm: Banff Elementary School Field Trip (players to try snowshoeing and dog sledding, because lots of people in Banff dog sled and snowshoe).

Late afternoon: Private Gondola ride up Sulphur Mountain.

January 22:

11:30 to 2:00 pm: Calgary Baseball Luncheon Palliser Hotel. ($150 per person or a table of 10 for $1000, anyone want to join me?).

Vancouver

Blue JaysRussell Martin, Roberto Alomar, Alex Anthopoulos, Paul Beeston, Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, and Drew Hutchison (oh sure, they get Alex and Paul (presuming he isn't fired by then))

January 23:

11:30 am to 1:30 pm: Vancouver Canadians Luncheon ($75 per person or table of ten for $750) (they get Russell, Anthopoulos and Beeston and the lunch costs half of what the Calgary lunch costs?).

11:00 to 11:30 am: Vancouver Media Availability (during the luncheon).

5:00 to 8:00 pm: Youth Baseball Training Clinic (open to media).

January 24

11:00 to 12:30: Autograph Session at Metropolis at Metrotown. (come early).

Reds trade Mat Latos to Miami Marlins

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The big right-hander heads south to the up and coming Marlins.

According to CBSSports.com's Jon Heyman, the Cincinnati Reds have traded pitcher Mat Latos to the Miami Marlins.

There's been no official word to confirm from the Reds yet, likely because GM Walt Jocketty was finishing up his press conference following this morning's trade of Alfredo Simon to the Detroit Tigers for Jonathan Crawford and Eugenio Suarez.  According to FoxSports.com's Ken Rosenthal, though, the Reds are getting a pair of solid prospects from Miami:

Latos heads into 2015 in his last season of arbitration eligibility before presumably becoming a free agent prior to 2016 (should he not re-up with Miami after this trade), and with the Reds in a pickle trying to sign multiple pitchers and shed salary, he becomes the second veteran starter to be jettisoned this offseason.  Since he fought through elbow surgery, a flexor mass scare, and a torn meniscus during the 2014 campaign, it'll be quite interesting to see whether the velocity dip he dealt with in 2014 was merely due to those injuries and missed time, or is something he'll have to deal with going forward.

In return for Latos, the Reds get a talented arm in Anthony DeSclafani, a player who joined the Marlins in the massive deal with the Toronto Blue Jays several winters ago that sent Mark Buehrle and Jose Reyes, among others, to Vottoland.  He ranked as high as the 2nd best prospect in the Marlins system at one point according to MLB Pipeline, and reached the majors last season at age 24, appearing in 13 games with a stellar 5.2 K/BB despite an unsightly 6.27 ERA in 33 innings.  His rookie status is still intact, meaning the Reds get 6 years of his service time.  Also part of the deal is catcher Chad Wallach, a former 5th round pick out of Cal-State Fullerton who beat the tar out of A ball pitching to the tune of .322/.431/.457 in 2014.  He'll provide solid catching depth, which is something no team can ever have enough of.

More importantly, I suppose, as that the trade of Latos and the previous trade of Alfredo Simon should free the Reds of nearly $15 million in 2015 payroll, so they'll now have a considerable amount more flexibility in solving the still vacant LF position (as well as the bullpen.)

In his 3 seasons with the Reds after being acquired from the San Diego Padres in exchange for Yasmani Grandal, Yonder Alonso, Edinson Volquez, and Brad Boxberger, Latos went 33-16 with a 3.31 ERA in 522.1 innings pitched, good for a kick-ass 117 ERA+ and a solid 9.0 bWAR.

Thanks for a hell of a ride, Mat, and good luck in Miami.

Yankees Rumors: New York might not be in on Max Scherzer after all

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The Yankees have taken a very passive approach to the offseason. They've watched as Jon Lester and Brandon McCarthy signed elsewhere and left the Winter Meetings empty-handed while other teams made a flurry of trades. The Yankees need to build up their rotation, no matter how they want to do it, so it now makes perfect sense for them to go all-in for Max Scherzer. The problem is that they might not even be able to:

At first glance, there's no way that this can be right. It's long been rumored that the Yankees have been quietly focusing their efforts on landing Scherzer since before Lester signed. However, when discussing missing out on McCarthy, Brian Cashman "figured the market would take him at a level that we couldn't play on," which should at least make you wonder what level that is exactly. The Yankees have always had the money to get the players they want, and even if they didn't really want McCarthy, it's very odd to hear that kind of talk coming from them. That's what you expect a small-market team to say when their homegrown ace signs elsewhere, not the New York Yankees discussing a mid-rotation starter. If 4/$48 million ended up being too much for McCarthy, what does that mean for Scherzer?

When everything is said and done, the former Cy Young winner is going to have a contract in the six-to-seven year range worth north of $180 million and could easily hit $200 million. That's a lot for anyone, but will it be too high of a level for the Yankees to play on? At this point the alternatives are James Shields and maybe a trade, but if they're also unwilling to give up any of their best prospects, it seems like the Yankees are resigned to a rotation of Masahiro Tanaka, Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia–all of whom have injury concerns–and basically no one else.

The Yankees have to upgrade their rotation, even if it's just to compete with the Red Sox and Blue Jays and all their moves this offseason. Does this mean that they'll let Scherzer go somewhere else or just that they won't compete for him against their terms? Either way, it means the Yankees will be bad, but the distinction is important if we're supposed to have any faith in this organization going forward.


Michael Saunders is a carnivore

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While very little is known about Toronto's new left fielder's dietary preferences it is clear that he feasts on meatballs.

When the Blue Jays acquired Michael Saunders, they got a player who could do a little bit of everything.

Along with the ever-marketable skill of being Canadian, the 28-year-old outfielder displays above-average power, solid defensive abilities (at least in the corners), and a good eye at the plate. When you add in a pinch of speed is easy to see why Alex Anthopoulos has described him as a five-tool player.

The term "five-tool player" brings to mind superstars when in fact Saunders is more like a league-average player, but he does have a balanced and intriguing skill set. One of his lesser-known skills is his ability to destroy mistake pitches.

Sticking Saunders with the label of "mistake hitter" is somewhat damning, but it's also fairly accurate. However, as a guy with a 109 wRC+ over the last three seasons it's clear that he doesn't exclusive hit  "mistakes", he just happens to hit them particularly hard.

Before delving too far into the idea of hitting mistake pitches, it's important to lay down a working definition, and the best definition is usually the simplest. As a result, for the purposes of this post I will consider pitches throw in the centre of the strike zone, true meatballs, as mistakes. Sometimes pitches are thrown there intentionally-like in 3-0 counts-but more often than not pitchers avoid that area like the plague if they can possibly help it.

It's well-known that many home runs come on pitches that catch too much of the plate, but for Saunders meatballs really are his bread and butter. Disturbingly food-heavy metaphors aside, the Canadian outfielders has hit 51 home runs in the Major Leagues and the Baseball Savant chart below shows how they break down by pitch location:

It's hard to know exactly how to react to this picture. On one hand it is intuitive that a hitter would get a large percentage of his home runs on pitches right down the pipe. On the other, it seems unusual for one relatively small zone to account for so many of the outfielder's round trippers.

In order to provide some context I dug into Baseball Savant numbers and looked at the top home run hitters the Blue Jays have employed in the PITCHf/x era to see if they were as meatball-oriented.

PlayerTotal Home Runs"Meatball" Home RunsMeatball Home Run Percentage
Michael Saunders511733.3%
Jose Bautista2153516.3%
Edwin Encarnacion1883016.0%
J.P. Arencibia741114.7%
Adam Lind1331410.5%
Colby Rasmus115108.7%
Brett Lawrie4337.0%

The samples here are naturally too small to be predictive or even demonstrative of "true talent", but it is interesting how Saunders has gotten his home runs off "mistakes" at such a higher rate than anyone else.

It's easy to see this information as discouraging. If Saunders needs a steady helping of meatballs to be a power producer then he could struggle against decent pitching. There is some logic to that wayof thinking, but it likely overestimates the command of major league pitchers.

Earlier this year Jeff Sullivan did an excellent video-analysis series on pitchers and their command. It wasn't the kind of broad big-data study from which definitive conclusions can be drawn, it was a nice look under the hood. He found that while Greg Maddux was pretty damn good at hitting his spots, even a guy like Mariano Rivera is not automatic and you can pretty much forget about it with Carlos Marmol.

Does Saunders rely more on pitchers making mistakes than the next guy? I'm not sure we know enough to know that, but it's possible. Even if it is the case. Pitchers miss all the time. Probably more than we think.

For example, Brett Cecil is a pretty good pitcher. He might be the Blue Jays next closer. This the pitch location chart for his career:

That's a lot of pitches in the heart of the plate. Now, did I handpick Cecil because of previous work I've done on the topic of meatballs? You bet. Is that fair? Absolutely not. This is an extreme example. However, the point holds that pitches down the pipe aren't some incredibly rare phenomenon.

Perhaps it's more important what Saunders does with mistakes than whether he needs them to survive. Mistakes are going to happen and when they do, the Jays left fielder will be there to do this...

or this...

or this...

Mariners acquire LHP David Rollins in Rule 5 draft

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Few thought the Mariners would only answer the Joe Beimel question this week, but, well, they may have done just that.

The Mariners added an arm to their potential bullpen pool in Thursday's Rule 5 draft, selecting left-hander David Rollins from the Houston Astros. It's not exactly the sexiest Winter Meetings news for the M's to be coming home with, but...well...I guess...they got their guy.

Rollins has been on the Mariners' radar for quite some time, having been drafted by the organization in both 2009 and 2010 but choosing to stay in school each time in hopes of landing a better offer down the road. He got it in 2011, when he was drafted in the 24th round by the Blue Jays, and has since spent the last four years jumping around between rookie ball, A, and AA. He was traded to the Astros as part of the last J.A. Happ deal, and has thrown only one game in AAA in 2013, spending all of last year with the Astros AA affiliate.

According to Jack Zduriencik, Rollins is going to get a chance to compete for a bullpen spot in spring training, which should be a no brainer because he has to spend every day of the 2015 season on the M's 25 man roster in order to stick around. Otherwise, he's shipped back to Houston, the M's lose $25 grand, and the whole deal was for naught. Something about Rollins really captivates the Mariners, and while bringing Joe Beimel back may not have been the smartest option, Rollins is an entirely different type of gamble. They have yet to rule anything out, including signing another lefty, but this certainly seems to change the plan going forward a bit.

So what does Rollins offer? According to a scouting report over at Outside Pitch MLB, Rollins' go to pitch at this point is his 89-92 sinking fastball, and while he can mix his pitches well, he has trouble spotting up his off-speed stuff. He apparently tops out at 94-95, as a lefty. Keep in mind that the last Rule 5 lefty the Mariners took topped out at 89, and is going to be competing for the same job as Rollins next spring. Yes, this could be a lot worse.

Here's the only highlight video I can find, in which he strikes out a rehabbing Donnie Murphy in his only AAA start that should remind you that cameras positioned anywhere other than centerfield should be made illegal by major and minor league baseball alike.

So the Mariners return home from the winter meetings with one solitary acquisition. The offseason is far from over, but keep in mind that they led the entire league in projected WAR before signing Nelson Cruz. They didn't need to attach a trawling net to pick up an army of leftover fish down in San Diego.

If Rollins really is a lefty that can hit 95, he could make an already good bullpen crazy better. If he costs the Mariners -0.2 fWAR, he will be 2013 Joe Beimel. If he doesn't even make the team, he'll be a $25,000 blip on the radar on the balancing sheet of a billion dollar technology corporation. It's a good time to be Mariner. Ok, now you can complain.

What are the Yankees' internal starting pitching options?

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Who can the Yankees add to the rotation if they look to fill a spot with one of the pitchers that they already have?

Now that free agents Jon Lester and Brandon McCarthy are off of the board, it seems like the Yankees will be all-in on Max Scherzer. Even if that is the case, and the Yankees do sign Scherzer, there would still be one open spot in the rotation. For the past few seasons, there has been a spring training competition among the pitchers to determine who will get that final spot. What are the Yankees choices if they do choose to go that route and use internal options to fill out the rest of the rotation?

David Phelps-Phelps was part of last year's spring training competition, and he did a fine job, but just wasn't able to compete with Michael Pineda who ended up winning. Of course, Phelps later found himself in the rotation due to the plethora of injuries. He was one of the starters from May to the beginning of August, when he went down with right elbow inflammation. Through 96.2 IP as a starter last season, he posted a 4.28 ERA, 4.18 FIP, 1.39 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 3.07 BB/9 and 0.93 HR/9. While he got the job done, he was just mediocre.

Adam Warren- Warren was also in the spring training competition, but that didn't work out for him. Instead, he found himself in the bullpen in a short relief role and he ended up thriving there. 78.2 IP, 8.69 K/9, 2.75 BB/9, 0.46 HR/9, 2.97 ERA, 1.11 WHIP. For some reason, Brian Cashman has been dropping comments that Warren might not stay in the bullpen next season. 2014 was by and far his best season as a Yankee, and moving him into the rotation could just end up weakening the bullpen.

Chase Whitley- Then there's Whitley. He was called up from Triple-A as an injury replacement for CC Sabathia on May 15th. Whitley started off strong, though he consistently struggled to go very deep into games. In fact, of the 12 games he started, he only pitched 6 or more innings three times. He went through a rough patch the end of June when he gave up 17 earned runs through just 10.1 IP (three starts in a row). It wasn't long after that before he was replaced in the rotation by Chris Capuano and sent to the bullpen. Part of the reason that he faded probably has to do with the fact that he pitched 107 innings in 2014, when he had only pitched 67.2 the year before. Through 58.2 innings in the rotation, he put up a 4.76 ERA, 3.79 xFIP, 1.48 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 1.84 BB/9 and 0.92 HR/9. It would be interesting to see what he could do if he could get deeper into games.

Bryan Mitchell- Mitchell was called up from Triple-A and then sent back down without making a single pitch multiple times before he finally made his major league debut during a relief appearance in August. He made just two starts in the rotation in September, but he was able to hold the red-hot Orioles to two runs over 5 innings, while only allowing one run to the Red Sox through 4 innings. He started the season in Double-A, where his ERA and FIP were both lofty (4.84 and 4.09, respectively), and while his strikeout numbers were good, he was walking a lot of people. This didn't prevent him from being promoted to Triple-A, where he pitched 41.2 innings with a 3.67 ERA, 4.44 FIP, 1.46 WHIP, 7.34 K/9 and 3.46 BB/9. Though he did well during his brief stint in the rotation last season, Mitchell probably needs more seasoning in Triple-A before he's ready to join the rotation.

Esmil Rogers- The Yankees picked up Rogers last season after the Blue Jays designated him for assignment. He made 17 relief appearances and one start for the Yankees, who apparently decided that they liked what they saw since they agreed to a one-year contract with him just last week. Though he's been used as both a starter and a reliever in his career, he spent the latter half of 2013 starting for the Blue Jays without being terribly successful (106.2 IP, 4.89 ERA, 3.78 xFIP, 1.43 WHIP). He started 2014 back in the bullpen and posted an abysmal 6.97 ERA and 5.41 FIP over 20.2 innings before he was cut. We may be experiencing very dire circumstances if Rogers somehow works his way into the rotation.

Manny Banuelos- There's also Banuelos, who finally returned from Tommy John surgery after missing the entire 2013 season. He was in Triple-A when he got injured, and he slowly worked his way back up to Triple-A during the 2014 season. The bulk of his season was spent in Double-A, where he pitched 49 innings with a 4.59 ERA and 5.03 FIP. He only pitched 15 innings in Triple-A, which amounted to four starts, 7.8 K/9, 6.00 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9, 3.60 ERA and 5.56 FIP. In one of those starts, he walked 6 batters in just three innings, though he somehow avoided giving up any earned runs. Based on those numbers, he seems pretty far from ready for a promotion at this point.

Phelps, Warren or Whitley look to be the most likely candidates to take a spot in the rotation if the Yankees do have another spring training competition. Who would you like to see as the starter if the Yankees do decide to go with an internal option?

Are the Jays still trying to replace Beeston?

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Rogers Corporation, apparently very awkwardly, are trying to replace Paul Beeston. It seemed like the rumors were dying out, but, this morning, Buster Olney gets us talking about it again.  Buster listed his 'winners and losers' from the Winter Meetings and mentioned Dan Duquette as a 'loser and winner', saying:

He was reminded the other day by Baltimore owner Peter Angelos that he has an existing contract that runs through 2018 and that he will be expected to honor that contract, rather than pursue the job of CEO of the Toronto Blue Jays.

In spite of that declarative statement, however, this situation has legs. There are folks in Major League Baseball who want the Orioles to allow Duquette to go to the Blue Jays, given his past work in Canada as the general manager of the Montreal Expos. If a deal can be worked out to satisfy Angelos, a hard negotiator, then Duquette may well be on the move. The Orioles are in position to demand a significant concession from the Blue Jays' ownership, which is more about the macro than the micro, and it probably wouldn't hesitate to part with something good if it can get the man it wants.

I don't know why Rogers would be fixating on Duquette. And I don't understand why the fact that Duquette worked for the Expos makes him a good choice for the Jays. It seems to be a very lazy narrative. He once worked in Canada, he should work there again. Maybe it is an American thing, they figure even though Toronto and Montreal are different cities, since they are in Canada, it is the same place.

I can't see why MLB would be wanting the Jays to hire Duquette. What is in it for them?

I also have doubts that the Jays would want to give up a player, of value, to get Dan.

It does seem that Rogers wants Beeston out. I have no idea why. I wonder if Beeston knows why?

I figured we ought to throw our collective hats into the competition for the job. Here is your chance, tell us what you would do if you were made president and CEO of the Blue Jays, maybe someone from Rogers will read it (if, you know, if anyone from Rogers has access to the internet) and give you the job.

Personally, if I was given Beeston's job I'd:

  • Go to Rogers and get a concrete number for the payroll budget, but also ask for a deal that, if the team is striking distance of the playoffs, there will be more money for mid-season deals. If the team is within 5 games, at the deadline, we can add $10 or $15 more to payroll. I don't see anything wrong at all with having to work under a budget, but I do think that, if the team is close, there ought to be some flexibility there. Making the playoffs, or just staying in the race, has a financial benefit for the team, they should be able to see that.
  • Be honest with people about the chances of real grass. I keep hearing there will be studies (someone must have finished a study), and we get a vague idea that there will be grass in 2018. Let's be honest and tell us if we can have grass in Rogers Centre or not. Stop saying 'we are studying" and tell us if they have figured out if it can be done or not.
  • Bump up the budget for the scouting department and the analytics department.
  • I would keep Alex and Gibby in their jobs, for now. since Alex is in the middle of rebuilding the team, I think it is the wrong time to make changes.
  • I'd get rid of the 5 year rule, figuring that if we aren't smart enough to know how long a contract to offer a player, then we really shouldn't be running club. I agree that, most of the time, going more than 5 years is a mistake, but i don't understand why I'd make a rule to protect me from myself.
  • I'd talk to Alex about being less cryptic with the press. I'd rather he didn't lie, I'd prefer if he didn't answer a question than lie.
  • I'd insist that everyone in the organization return phone calls and emails. Anyone would understand if a reply said 'no' to whatever request is made, but be professional enough to reply. If a department is too busy to return messages, get them an intern. When Bob Elliot starts calling you "Rogers un-Communications" well, there is a problem.

Tell us what you would do if you were made team CEO.

    Good Guy Brett Lawrie

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    Brett Lawrie has been on a clever social media run since being traded to the Oakland Athletics.

    When Brett Lawrie was traded to the Oakland Athletics for Josh Donaldson on November 28, Blue Jays fan Amelia, age 6, was distraught:

    On Friday, Brett Lawrie dropped in to visit Amelia. I'd say she's feeling better:

    what an amazing moment so cool and privileged to meet this lady

    A video posted by @blawrie1313 on

    What else does Good Guy Brett do?

    Good Guy Brett visits Boys and Girls Clubs

    Good Guy Brett lampshades his Bad Bro Brett reputation

    crushin a bucks #PeppMocha

    A photo posted by @blawrie1313 on

    Good Guy Brett embraces his new team

    #FreshStart #A's ✌️

    A photo posted by @blawrie1313 on

    Good Guy Brett salutes his Blue Jays fans

    I like Good Guy Brett.

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