Red Sox outfielder Shane Victorino missed a lot of games in 2014, and may not have a starting role in Boston's outfield to begin the season. But, with good health, he could be a very nice sleeper in 2015.

Today, I continue the series where I profile some fantasy baseball sleepers that could help you win your leagues in 2015. Every year, fantasy owners are looking for that late round hitter/pitcher who could help them deal with underperformance from an early round pick, or with an unexpected injury. Some will be busts, some will help you along the way.

I like to define a sleeper as a player who is one of the lower ranked players in standard leagues who could come out of nowhere to outperform their preseason ranking/value. Last season, we saw plenty of players come out of nowhere to help fantasy teams including Charlie Blackmon, Dee Gordon, Steve Pearce, Carlos Carrasco, among many others.

I will begin with the American League East division teams, in order of the 2014 standings, and proceed with the AL Central, AL West and so on.

You can find links to my other sleepers below:

2015 Sleeper Series: Jonathan Schoop

2015 Sleeper Series: Yankees Starter Michael Pineda

2015 Sleeper Series: Blue Jays Outfielder Michael Saunders

2015 Sleeper Series: Rays starter Jake Odorizzi

Shane Victorino

The Red Sox outfield is quite crowded at the moment, especially after the signing of Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo, the offseason signing of free agent Hanley Ramirez, the trade deadline deal that netted former Cardinals outfielder Allen Craig, and the emergence of Mookie Betts in the second half of the 2014 season.

So where does this leave Shane Victorino? That's a great question, and I have to imagine he could be a good candidate to be traded during spring training, or early in the season, as an injury replacement. Right now, it appears he is the Red Sox fourth outfielder, but ESPN's depth charts still list him as the Red Sox starting right fielder. With Betts on the bench. That could happen, but I seriously doubt that. I see Betts as the Red Sox starting center fielder and lead off hitter. It is quite possible Castillo is relegated to a part time role with Victorino to start the season.

Victorino missed 132 games last season due to back and hamstring injuries, so 2014 was a lost season for him. I see Betts and Castillo getting all kinds of love leading up to draft day, and would not be surprised if The Flyin' Hawaiian isn't drafted in most 12 team mixed leagues, making him a perfect sleeper candidate.

Victorino is two years removed from a season where he hit .294-.351-.451 with 15 home runs, 82 runs scored, 61 RBI and 21 stolen bases. Sure, he is 34 years old, but he is a very good right fielder, and when healthy, he has shown he can still be very productive at the plate.

Victorino currently has an average draft position of 331.58, good for the 78th ranked outfielder according to early NFBC draft results, so he isn't being drafted in most 15 team NFBC leagues. Steamer projects him to hit .268 with 10 home runs, 56 runs scored, 48 RBI and 11 stolen bases in 436 plate appearances this season. With good health, he could easily surpass that projection hitting in the stacked lineup.

Fantasy Rundown

If you are looking for more fantasy baseball, football or basketball articles or rankings, make sure you give a look at Fantasy Rundown, where you can find links to some of the best fantasy content on the interwebs.

It was a warm summer night in Baltimore's Memorial Stadium, an ovoid stadium that was home to both the Orioles and soon-to-be-relocated Colts. It sat some 53,000 fans when full, but only 25,882 showed up to the game on August 24, 1983, and only a fraction of those were still in their seats by the time the Orioles picked off three Blue Jays in the tenth inning.

Both participants in this battle of the birds were still in a playoff chase: entering the game the Orioles were in second place, a half-game behind the Brewers and the Blue Jays were in fourth place, percentage points behind the Tigers, and 1.5 games behind Milwaukee.

The Blue Jays got in flight first, with Lloyd Moseby scoring in the top of the third on a Garth Iorg sacrifice fly. The Orioles joined them in the bottom of the inning, with their own sac fly against Jim Clancy. The Jays scored again in the fifth on an error, and then in the eighth on a Buck Martinez sac fly. Clancy took the 3-1 lead into the ninth, but allowed two runners on base around two outs. Reliever Dave Geisel was called in but he promptly gave up two singles to pinch-hitter Benny Ayala and Al Bumbry to tie the game 3-3.

Joey McLaughlin replaced Geisel and got the final out, taking the game into extras. The problem now for Orioles manager Joe Altobelli is that he didn't have any catchers left on the bench or in the lineup. Having gone 0-for-2 against the right-handed Clancy, the same-handed light-hitting starting catcher Rick Dempsey was pinch hit for in the seventh inning by backup catcher Joe Nolan, who batted left. Altobelli played the percentages again in the ninth by subbing in righty Ayala against the southpaw Geisel. I guess he was hoping for a walkoff win (or a loss) to avoid the messy problem of having lost both of his catchers, but alas, the inning ended with the game tied and the Orioles would need someone to receive incoming reliever Tim Stoddard.

Hawaii-born Lenn Sakata was the utility guy on the Orioles so he was pressed into catching action, something he hadn't done since Little League.

He might have worried about it, but he didn't end up needing to catch the first pitch from Stoddard--Cliff Johnson deposited it in deep left-centre for his 20th home run of the season (he would end up hitting 22 that season, tied for his career high). For the following sequence, I'll let Allan Ryan, who covered the game for the Toronto Star, take over:

Barry Bonnell then singled off Stoddard's third pitch to arrange for an appearance by Tippy Martinez and, ultimately, one of this season's most bizarre sequence of events. Mel Allen's going to love this.

With Dave Collins at the plate, Martinez, a lefthander, caught Bonnell too far from safety and first baseman [Eddie] Murray eventually ran Bonnell down in the vicinity of second. Martinez then proceeded to walk Collins.

With Willie Upshaw at the plate, Martinez picked off Collins, then game Upshaw a single.

So, with Buck Martinez at the plate, [Tippy] Martinez picked off Upshaw.

The Blue Jays insist that Collins and Upshaw pick-offs were textbook balks, but Martinez (never mind the hitters, show me some base-runners) earned his seventh win in 10 decisions.

Seeing the tape of the plays (what did people do before YouTube?), I don't think the Blue Jays were justified in crying foul. To my eyes, Tippy Martinez definitely did not balk one either plays as he clearly stepped to first and didn't make any motion towards home plate.

The complaining Blue Jays were probably just embarrassed--they saw some guy who hadn't ever caught before behind the plate and thought (probably correctly) that they could steal a few easy bases against him but got caught.

In the next half-inning, birthday boy Cal Ripken Jr. (he turned 23 that day) tied the game 4-4 with a leadoff homer against McLaughlin. McLaughlin walked two more batters before being relieved by Randy Moffitt, who struck out Gary Roenicke (father of Josh). With two runners on and two outs, Lenn Sakata expressed his dislike for catching by slamming a walkoff three-run shot over the fence to end the experiment once and for all.

The Orioles won the game 7-4, which would be the start of an eight-game winning streak that would propel them into first place, a position that the would hold through the end of their World Series-winning 1983 season. That shows you that even managers who make boneheaded moves could win the World Series.

Tidbits

• According to Allan Ryan's column in the Star, after Pete Rose's ironman streak ended at 745 games earlier that afternoon, the Blue Jays' Alfredo Griffin moved up to second place at 313 consecutive games played while Dale Murphy took over the lead at 311 games. Cal Ripken's streak was at 240 consecutive games at the conclusion of this game.
• Lenn Sakata was the second Japanese-American to play in the major leagues. He was also the starting shortstop at the game that started Ripken's streak. Sakata now manages the San Jose Giants (class A-advanced).
• From Baseball-Reference's Play Index, we can see that Tippy Martinez is one of only eight different pitchers have had three or more pickoffs in a game. He is the only relief pitcher who recorded the feat, as well as the only pitcher to have done so in one inning.
• The games with three or more pickoffs come in clusters: three happened in 1977, four between 1982 and 1984, and just two outside those ranges.

Sources

• Baseball-Reference.com
• Ryan, Allan. "Orioles' extra effort beats Jays". Toronto Star. August 25, 1983, E1-E2.
• Wikipedia.com (Lenn Sakata, Memorial Stadium, Tippy Martinez)

Tigers third baseman Nick Castellanos was one of the best hitting prospects in the game a few years ago, but struggled in his first big league season. Can he break out in 2015?

Today, I continue the series where I profile some fantasy baseball sleepers that could help you win your leagues in 2015. Every year, fantasy owners are looking for that late round hitter/pitcher who could help them deal with underperformance from an early round pick, or with an unexpected injury. Some will be busts, some will help you along the way.

I like to define a sleeper as a player who is one of the lower ranked players in standard leagues who could come out of nowhere to outperform their preseason ranking/value. Last season, we saw plenty of players come out of nowhere to help fantasy teams including Charlie Blackmon, Dee Gordon, Steve Pearce, Carlos Carrasco, among many others.

I will begin with the American League East division teams, in order of the 2014 standings, and proceed with the AL Central, AL West and so on.

You can find links to my other sleepers below:

2015 Sleeper Series: Jonathan Schoop

2015 Sleeper Series: Yankees Starter Michael Pineda

2015 Sleeper Series: Blue Jays Outfielder Michael Saunders

2015 Sleeper Series: Rays starter Jake Odorizzi

2015 Sleeper Series: Red Sox Outfielder Shane Victorino

Nick Castellanos

Tigers young third baseman Nick Castellanos was once one of the top hitting prospects in teh game, ranking as high as #21 overall prior to the 2013 season and #25 overall prior to the 2014 season. He was rushed through the minors, making it to the big leagues at the age of 21, and spending his first full season with the Tigers at the age of 22.

Castellanos is still learning and maturing as a hitter, and he struggled at the plate in 2014, hiting .259-.306-.394 with 31 doubles, 11 home runs, 50 runs scored and 66 RBI in 579 plate appearances. Taking a look at his batted ball data over at FanGraphs, you see that he hit a ton of line drives last season (29%), and only 37% of his batted balls were hit in the air. Even worse was his 7.5% home run per fly ball percentage, so there is reason to believe he will turn some of those line drives into fly balls, and more of those fly balls will turn into home runs, as I expect his line drive rate to drop and his HR/FB% to rise to around the 10% range, which is the league average.

Castellanos is a big guy, standing 6'4" and weighing over 200 pounds, so he has the build to grow into more power at the plate. He is also surrounded by two of THE best hitters in the game in Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. Watching two of the best hitters in the game should help him down the road, but he still has to execute at the plate.

He will have to work on make more contact, cutting his strike out rate and swinging at less pitches out of the zone in 2015. Should he do that, we could see Castellanos rise in our third base rankings. According to the early NFBC average draft position rankings, Castellanos' ADP sits at 240.54, and is the 21st third baseman off of draft boards in the early NFBC drafts.

Steamer projects him to basically repeat his 2014 season, and i think they are underestimating the type of hitter he can be. He is a perfect candidate for a post-hype prospect break out season in 2015.

Fantasy Rundown

If you are looking for more fantasy baseball, football or basketball articles or rankings, make sure you give a look at Fantasy Rundown, where you can find links to some of the best fantasy content on the interwebs.

According to a team release this morning, the Blue Jays have officially hired their first assistant hitting coach in franchise history. Eric Owens, who had been the Dodgers' minor league hitting coordinator since 2011, will be working with the newly-hired Brook Jacoby in trying to convince major league hitters on how they can improve their game at the plate.

Dane Johnson was also officially named bullpen coach, about a month after Shi Davidi's initial report about the hiring.

Down on the farm, Sal Fasano slides from catching instructor to pitching coordinator to replace the promoted Johnson. No replacement for the catching instructor position was named.

Rick Langford, last year's rehab pitching coach, is now a senior pitching advisor, while the 73-year-old Darold Knowles, who had been Dunedin's pitching coach, was named as Langford's successor.

Hot Stove Luncheons

The Buffalo Bisons have announced that they will be holding their annual Hot Stove Luncheon on Thursday, January 15 at noon in downtown Buffalo's Adam's Mark Hotel. Guests will include Alex Anthopoulos, long reliever Chad Jenkins, and infielder / relief pitcher Steve Tolleson. Tickets are $25 and includes a buffet meal--which was decent enough in past years--so it's a pretty good deal for a pretty cool event.

If you're on the other side of the continent, the Vancouver Canadians will be holding their Hot Stove Luncheon on Friday, January 23 at the Fairmont Hotel. They have a slightly more high-profile guest list with players Russell Martin, Drew Hutchison, Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez making appearances in addition to Roberto Alomar, Paul Beeston, and Alex Anthopoulos. Wowza.

Buy-Low Relievers

Nick Ashbourne wrote about four "buy-low" right-handed relief candidates over at Sportsnet.ca. J.J. Hoover is the most intriguing name on that list for me, as he should still have one option year remaining (he was optioned for less than 20 days in 2014). Fun fact: he was once traded for Juan Francisco!

According to ESPN's Jim Bowden, the Marlins are still in on Shields. Plus links on Miami's rotation, Marcell Ozuna, and Dan Haren.

Marlins remain hopeful that Dan Haren changes his mind and reports by Spring Training and they remain in hunt for James Shields#Marlins

— Jim Bowden (@JimBowden_ESPN) January 5, 2015

-Piecing together the back end of the Marlins rotation - Marlin Maniac - A Miami Marlins Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

Henderson Alvarez, Mat Latos, Jarred Cosart and Tom Koehler should make up the top three on the staff, with Haren probably taking the fourth spot ahead of Tom Koehler. Now, Koehler should hold that spot after an impressive 2.5 WAR 2014 season, leaving the Marlins with an open spot in the rotation.

-Do the Marlins have the best offensive middle infield in the National League East? - Marlin Maniac - A Miami Marlins Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More

Needless to say, the Marlins duo places much better from an offensive standpoint than they do from a defensive grading. Of the six categories, Hechavarria and Gordon fared particularly well in the categories directly impacted by base-running (BSR and wRC+), but obviously trailed the curve when it came to power and settled down the middle when it came to simply getting on base and adding runs.

-Haren not intending on joining Marlins " The Fish Pond

Dan Haren has informed the Marlins that his preference remains to pitch out West, and for a team that has Spring Training in Arizona. The 34-year-old California native had been weighing his options sinced he was traded to Miami from the Dodgers on Dec. 10. If Miami cannot work out a trade, it is not clear yet if the 12-year big league veteran will retire.

-Haren reiterates his preference to pitch out West | marlins.com

Dan Haren has informed the Marlins that his preference remains to pitch out West, and for a team that has Spring Training in Arizona. The 34-year-old California native had been weighing his options since he was traded to Miami from the Dodgers on Dec. 10.

-Who will win fifth spot in Marlins' rotation? | marlins.com

There are no shortage of candidates for what appears to be one vacant spot in the Marlins' rotation. The competition got a little more interesting when David Phelps was brought into the mix via a trade with the Yankees.

Around The League

-Market for Shields remains in flux | MLB.com

The Red Sox reportedly have not had much recent discussion with free-agent starting pitcher James Shields, according to ESPN and Sirius XM's Jim Bowden, leaving the remaining market for the right-hander largely unknown.

-Pioneering Scott blazed a new trail in sports broadcasting | MLB.com

His was a new voice, uniquely his own. It spoke to people who hadn't been spoken to before and changed the landscape of broadcasting forever. In that way, Stuart Scott's legacy is simple.

-2015 Hall of Fame class set to be unveiled Tuesday | MLB.com

NEW YORK -- Anticipation about the Class of 2015 is very high, and for the second consecutive year, it's possible a large new group of players will be inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame. Electees from the Baseball Writers' Association of America ballot are set to be announced on Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET, with induction scheduled for July 26. As always, Hall president Jeff Idelson will make the presentation live on MLB Network and MLB.com. Any new Hall of Famers would then be introduced at a media conference on Wednesday at the famous Waldorf Astoria New York.

At Fish Stripes

-Martin Prado trade: Marlins traded Domingo German to cover Garrett Jones - Fish Stripes

The primary reason the Miami Marlins eventually had to trade starting pitching prospect Domingo German was to cover the inclusion of Garrett Jones into the deal.

-Marlins' Cole Gillespie could serve as backup outfielder - Fish Stripes

Gillespie has major league experience and would not require the Marlins to make a major transaction. Plus links on Miami's goals for 2015 and a review of the 2012 trade with Toronto.

-A retrospective look on the 2012 Marlins-Blue Jays trade - Fish Stripes

The Marlins-Blue Jays trade of 2012 was always a good baseball trade that was bad in the context of the franchise. Two years should not and have not changed that result.

-Have the Miami Marlins done enough to compete in 2015? - Fish Stripes

The Marlins are seeking improvement in 2015, but has the club done enough to compete starting in April?

Drew Hutchison's slider changed sometime in August. So did his strikeout rate. Things might never be the same.

Within the next month or so, Max Scherzer will sign a contract that could set a record for the biggest contract ever given to a pitcher. He's in line for a guarantee of at least $150-million, and maybe upwards of $200-million. And with good reason, as he's been a top-3 starter in MLB the last 3 seasons, no history of injury problems, and will start next year at 30. Come to think of it, Scherzer would look really good atop the Blue Jays rotation in 2015.

Of course, that's a complete pipedream, as Scherzer will get an annual salary beyond what the Jays can fit into their budget, will sign for more years than the Jays limit of 5 years for free agents, and is a Boras client. Tant pis. But what if I was to say that the Jays already had a starter who, in the second half of 2014, was almost as good as Scherzer in a numerous key ways (and not because Scherzer was bad, quite the contrary):

By the headline numbers, Drew Hutchison isn't even a very poor man's Scherzer, his ERA two full runs above Scherzer. They were on polar opposites of league average, Scherzer about 25% better and Hutchison 25% worse. Even looking at components, Hutchison's FIP was well over a run higher. But normalizing for home runs, they were a lot closer, with xFIPs just half a run apart. SIERA, incorporating non-linearity and batted balls, gives Scherzer a small advantage but sees them as having pitched almost equally pitched as well.

Indeed, looking at what pitchers have the most control over (K and BB), Hutchison and Scherzer were very similar in the second half. They walked batters at essentially the same rate, and Scherzer struck out just 1% more batters. The big difference was home runs, where Hutchison gave up a significantly higher amount of fly balls, and had them leave the ballpark at nearly twice the rate. This was the major difference between them, in addition to sequencing differences.

Interestingly, while Hutchison gave up a lot more fly balls - second highest rate among 101 qualified SPs - he also induced slightly more ground balls, meaning those extra fly balls were coming at the expense of line drives. While that will lead to more home runs which is definitely not good, it's actually not a bad tradeoff at all since MLB hitters are overall far more productive on line drives (2014 wRC+ of 356 for non-pitchers on liners v. 115 for fly balls). This is a large part of the reason that SIERA found much less of a difference than xFIP.

So why the focus on the second half only? To highlight the fact that Hutchison took a pretty big step forward in the last three months of the year compared to the first three months:

These numbers don't match up exactly with the numbers above, since filtering by "second half" uses the All-Star break to divide; whereas doing it by month divides Hutchison's season into perfect halves, 16 starts and 92.1 innings each. Once again, the headline numbers skew the improvement, but digging deeper it's pretty clear.

From April to June, Hutchison was the definition of a league average pitcher: average ERA, average FIP, average xFIP, average K%, average BB%, average HR/FB rate, average BABIP, average LOB%. The only deviation was Hutchison's fly ball orientation.

In the second half, Hutchison's ERA ballooned while his FIP declined and SIERA plunged. This is because he improved his K% materially by 6% from 20.3% to 26.5% while holding his walk rate mostly constant. He allowed more home run because he allowed 6% more fly balls, which FIP/xFIP don't like, but again at the expense of line drives, which SIERA really likes. I would expect the line drive rate to regress back toward league average, but coming mostly from fly balls since his ground ball rate has been pretty stable.

In September, he took this to more of an extreme, striking out a crazy 35% of batters but giving up a pile of home runs. The home run rate can easily dismissed as noise in such a small sample, but the increased K rate can have some inferential value even in such a small sample. That said, it was September with expanded rosters, one of those starts with against the Cubs who were playing a lot of call ups, two against Baltimore who had the division wrapped up, etc. So we don't want to read too much into it, but it's worth noting his last two starts of August against TB and NYY were similarly good.

If Hutchison can maintain a strikeout rate in the mid-to-high 20s while doing everything else similarly, it increases his value substantially. Not only does it make him a breakout candidate, but he's probably more of a top-50 pitcher rather than top-100 or so (back/midrotation) starter in MLB. I'm certainly not the first to notice this uptick, for example Rotographs' Mike Podherzer and Gammons Daily's Alec Hopp. Both pointed to some changes, but neither in my view pointed to a fundamental improvement that would explain such a big increase in strikeout rate. And that's really the key is Hutchison is to actually break out.

Watching Hutchison in 2014, one thing I thought I noticed was that in the second half he was doing a much better job of consistently "finishing" his slider and the getting late break that leads to swings and misses. Such anecdotal observations are notoriously unreliable - it's easy to remember a couple of good pitches and forgot a bunch of bad ones especially if they weren't punished - so it's something I filed away to look at the winter comprehensively. And when I did get around to it over the holidays, I was actually really surprised with that I found.

Starting with the vertical break on Hutchison's pitches by month:

Over the first four months, Hutchison got no vertical movement on his slider (relative to the spinless baseball). In August, he averaged 2 inches and by September was getting 4 inches.

Likewise, there's a similar dropoff in velocity:

Early in the season, he was throwing his slider around 85-87 MPH, in September this fell to around 83 MPH. So basically he was throwing a slower slider with more vertical break.

But it gets even more categorical than that. Let's look game by game rather than than month by month at the vertical break on his slider:

There's a very clear break line between his first 25 starts, and his last 7 starts, not even the more gradual trend above. The velocity chart doesn't show quite as sharp a change, but there's a change around the same time. This clearly points to some sort of adjustment, it's inconceivable to be a random change. And what was the result?

The spike in his strikeout rate coincided exactly with the change in his slider, driven by a 10% fall in contact rate. Granted, as this chart shows, it wasn't all about his slider, he got more whiffs on all his pitches. Of course, it's quite conceivable a better slider makes everything else play up. We definitely shouldn't expect a 70% contact rate or 30%+ strikeout rate next year, but it does look like Hutchison has a new and improved weapon at his disposal. Nick wrote in October about Hutchison's struggles against lefties and throwing his change-up in particular. Sliders have large platoon splits, so having an average slider is not a great option against opposite handed hitters. But, it may now be a viable option to finish off opposite handed hitters.

Assuming this is a real change, Hutchison looks like a legitimate breakout candidate in 2015 and beyond. The comparison above aside, we shouldn't expect him to be Scherzer, but 3 WAR in 180-200 IP would be reasonable. In fact, I'd suggest looking to extend him now, locking his last 4 control year and maybe a free agent year or option. Of course, it takes two to tango, but Hutchison has already had a significant injury, so beyond able to lock in guaranteed dollars might be very attractive. Either way, another step forward from Hutchison in 2015 would be a nice boost towards playoff contention.

Data and charts from Fangraphs and Brooks Baseball

There is depressingly little for Blue Jays news. There is the vague rumor that the Jays (along with everyone else in baseball) are interested in Vlad Guerrero Jr, but I couldn't figure a way to pad that out to a 200 word post. .

Shi Davidi tells us that it is going to be tough for the Jays to pick up anyone for the bullpen, with Shi's guesstimated $5-7 million left in the budget (that ends any hope we might have had that Shields might fall to us and it makes if even more doubtful that we'll sign Takashi Toritani). It is really starting to look like we are going to be trying to improve the bullpen by using the the same guys as last year, minus Casey Janssen.

There is the $5 million that Dioner Navarro is owed. The team might be able to move him during spring training. and save that money,  but I don't see them being able to spend the savings by that point. I thought that we'd be able to get a good bullpen arm for him, but, if we could, it would have happened by now.

At the moment the bullpen looks like it will be Brett Cecil and Aaron Loup from the left. Chad Jenkins and Todd Redmond from the right.

Plus some combination of Marco Estrada, Kyle Drabek, Steve Delabar, Rob Rasmussen, Bo Schultz, Ryan Tepera, Colt Hynes, Cory Burns and Andrew Albers. And then what ever Alex can put up cheaply, most likely passing the hat around.

The wild card is Aaron Sanchez, who, I would think, would almost have to be in the pen if no other moves are made.

The other guy who becomes very important, if no other moves are made, is Steve Delabar. If he can pitch like he did in 2012 and 2013, he'd be the guy I'd like as closer. Beyond that, maybe Tepera could surprise, he did strikeout on a batter an inning in Buffalo. And I'm sure Estrada could fill a long man role with no problem.

I really hate that Alex stated, at the start of the off-season, that improving the bullpen was his number one priority and then did nothing about it. I really would like to trust that he means the things he says, but he keeps making it harder.

What would you do, if you were Alex, and you had $5 to 7 million to play with? Other than give yourself a $5 to 7 million pay raise? Would you hold on to the money, to use it at the trading deadline?

Three weeks after the Blue Jays signed Daric Barton fans have been on pins and needles waiting for an in-depth look at his plate discipline.... right?

Three weeks ago the Blue Jays signed a remarkable baseball player.

In this case remarkable does not necessarily mean effective, but rather extraordinary. Daric Barton is more unusual than impactful and more of a peculiarity than an asset.

If he were a particularly useful Barton would not have signed a minor-league deal and would not be considered triple-A depth on a team that may pencil in Justin Smoak as its Opening Day first baseman. The 29-year-old only has one productive season to his name, and that was in 2010. Predicting a meaningful bounce-back would be overly optimistic.

Instead, today I mean to appreciate Barton for what makes him unique and the fact the Blue Jays have brought such a special snowflake of a player into the organization.

Barton is famous for one thing and one thing only: drawing walks, a skill the Jays seem to prize as of late. His 13.9% career walk rate is excellent, and in his breakout 2010 season he drew 110 walks, second in the majors. The veteran's disciplined approach at the plate has always been his calling card and he really doesn't pair it with any other significant skills.

In fact, Barton's 2010 was one of only seven seasons by first basemen since 1914 with 110 or more walks and 10 or fewer home runs. The second most recent of those seasons was by Ferris Fain in 1950 and Barton is the only one on the list with more than 60 strikeouts (he posted 102),setting him apart from the crowd.

The former Oakland Athletic has very limited power and contact skills that are not special, yet he's carved out a career for himself as a discipline-first first baseman, an almost impossible feat. It hasn't been the most glamorous or successful career, but a career nonetheless.

The question that presents itself is what about Barton's approach is so special that he's managed to make a living off his eye alone. The obvious answer is "not swinging at pitches outside the strike zone", and he has been special in that regard offering at only 16.5% of balls in his career.

However, a closer look shows that he has one of the most transparent plans at the plate observable since these things could be measured by PITCHf/x. The following zone profile shows his career swing% by pitch location.

Notice Barton's strong preference for pitches middle-in and middle-up. In chart form that preferences looks like this (for the purpose of the chart that middle-in middle-up zone will be referred to as "Barton's Hot Zone").

Keep in mind that "All other locations" includes 55.5% of the strike zone. Barton has found one location where he feel like he can drive the ball and he's pretty much swore off pitches everywhere else. Unsurprisingly, his choice shows a pretty strong sense of self awareness.

The zone profile below shows Barton's career isolated power by pitch location:

Aside from a couple of blips once again the same hot zone dominates this picture. For those more chart-inclined the numbers look like this:

In his wheelhouse Barton is a slugger, everywhere else he's as punchless as Josh Thole.

It is not unusual to see a hitter have a particular hot zone and for them swing at pitches there more often, but Barton's discipline in waiting for pitches where he can hit them is absolutely exceptional.

Theoretically every hitter should have an approach like this, maximizing their potential by focusing on their hot zones. However, as the simplistic logic goes "if it were easy everyone would be doing it".

Perhaps the biggest issue is that the vast majority of pitchers stubbornly refuse to cooperate with the best laid plans. Instead, they belligerently insist on attacking hitters with maniacal repertoires that include all manner of sadistic offspeed pitches and breaking balls.

It is incredibly difficult to stand in a batters box against major league pitching and execute a precise plan. With his otherworldly batting eye Daric Barton has managed to do so with some regularity.

That makes him a very impressive hitter, in a way. Unfortunately, in just about every other way he's just not up to snuff.

He may have the mind of a hitting maestro, but tragically his tools will likely always leave him more compelling than competent.

2014 was a very good year for the our site, if not really for our team. Visits and page views were way up over 2013 and comments were up more than 2.5 times over 2013.  You guys really do amaze me by taking posts and making them so much more interesting by having great conversations in the comment threads.

We had 1351 front page posts (not counting game threads) in 2014, down some from 2013 when we were above 1500 posts (is it any wonder that sometimes I sit staring at the computer wondering if we have finally said everything there is to say about the Blue Jays?). I'm coming up to 6000 career posts myself, which scares me.

Here are some leader boards from last year:

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MjwW                   13947 
Tom Dakers       12059 
Strik3r                  11957 
ABsteve               10035 
Alan F.                    7482 
Spor                        7165 
T-Ball                       6292

Congratulations Pikachu. Let's see, 20749 posts, 365 days in a year, that's just under 57 a day. Last year's leader bumped his total up by more than 6000 comments and drops to second. I'm 2000 comments up from 2013 and drop from 3rd to 5th. I'm thinking I need to go on PEDs to keep up with the younger commenters.

As always, if you want to get on this list for next year...well, you can see want you need to do. Most of the ones on the list are GameThread regulars, that really bumps up your comment count.

Most FanPosts:

King Kelly                 20
T-Ball                         19
K931                          14
haganenodan          12
Kraemer_17             10
Spor                             7
JaysSaskatchewan   6
Johnny Mac's Mitt      5
junior_felix_jr             4
nickgarciataria           4

Great job King Kelly, a two time champion.

We had a lot more FanPosts than in the past, but we can always use more. I love reading them. They are a great way to share your opinions.

Top Fanshots:

Tom Dakers                         34
hansdampf                             6
radivel                                     4
JaysSaskatchewan               4
Goldenhawk99                       3
e&n4e                                       3
Raffa                                         2
JaysCraze                               2
mattenglish                              2
bluejaysstatsgeek                   1

Yeah, the FanShots are a problem, buried at the bottom of the page. I have an edge, as I can put mine on the front page. If you do have one that you think is particularly good, you can always send me an email (bluebirdbanter@shaw.ca) and I can put it up on the front page.

Thanks all, and if you want to see your name on our leader board next year...well you know what you have to do.

The 40-year old veteran ends his baseball career after a stint with the Angels in 2014.

The Angels signed veteran infielder John McDonald last offseason, and the 40-year old appeared in 95 games for Los Angeles. According to both the Angels' and Blue Jays' official team pages, McDonald has elected to retire from baseball after a 16-year career.

Before the start of the season, McDonald acknowledged 2014 could be his final major league season, and told MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez he did not think he would be in the big leagues for 16 years.

McDonald posted a .171/.256/.197 batting line to complement five RBIs in 91 plate appearances in 2014. He played with eight different teams throughout the course of his career, and had his best major league season in 2005, when he posted a .277/.326/.325 line and drove in 16 runs. He began his major league career in 1999 with Cleveland, spent seven seasons each with both the Blue Jays and Indians, and won a World Series ring with the Red Sox in 2013, although he was not on the club's postseason roster. Boston added him to serve as a mentor for Xander Bogaerts.

Despite the fact that he is a career .233 hitter and only posted 28 home runs in 2,500 plate appearances, McDonald was known for his plus defense. He spent most of his career playing shortstop, but also saw time at both second and third base. He was traded from Cleveland to Toronto in 2004 in exchange for Tom Mastny, but appeared in an Indians' uniform again in 2013, briefly replacing Asdrubal Cabrera before being designated for assignment.

McDonald was used as a utility infielder and defensive replacement late in games, but was also known for his veteran presence in the clubhouse. MLB Trade Rumors notes he was once traded for himself, as Toronto sent him to Detroit in exchange for a player to be named later. The Blue Jays completed the deal by acquiring him from the Tigers four months later.

Should the Jays pick up Tyler Pastornicky?

One of my former favorite Blue Jays prospects is free for the taking:

The #Braves will DFA Tyler Pastornicky to create a spot on their 40-man roster for today's three signings.

— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) January 7, 2015

Tyler Pastornicky was a 5th round Blue Jays draft pick in 2007. He was in the Blue Jays system until July 14, 2010, when he, Tim Collins and Alex Gonzalez were all traded to the Braves for Yunel Escobar and Jo-Jo Reyes.

He was number 9 on our 2010 Top Prospects list. I wrote this:

9. Tyler Pastornicky, SS: I'll admit, I probably like him better than he deserves, but then I'm not the only one. He just turned 20 in December. He stole 57 bases and hit 9 triples between Lansing and Dunedin last year so he's got speed. He knows how to take a walk (8.6% walk rate). Doesn't strikeout a lot. Tyler doesn't have any power but is still very young, so a little power could appear yet, but he's not going to be a middle of the order type. He has the arm for short, but his range is average, we'll see how he progresses, he might end up at second. His 269/.331/.342 batting line might not look that good but he does enough things well that he should be able to improve on that as he moves up. A 5th round draft pick from 2008 out of high school, he could be a top of the order type hitter in the majors. But we do have a few good SS prospects at the moment. He is a level behind Jackson and just ahead of Gustavo Pierre and Ryan Goins, the next few years will be interesting to see which ones turn out and which don't.

As to that last line.....none have them have really 'turned out' yet. Justin Jackson switched over to pitching and signed a minor league contract with the Braves, after putting up a 4.66 ERA in 58 innings, walking 25, with 45 strikeouts, split between Dunedin and New Hampshire in 2014. Gustavo Pierre hit .263/.285/.390 in 107 games at Dunedin last year (with a bunch of error. And Ryan Goins, well you know about him.

As a Brave, playing part time in the majors over the last three seasons, he hit .243/.295/.314 in 124 games. What surprises me is he only had 2 stolen bases in his 124 MLB games. In the minors, over 7 seasons, he had 165 steals (with 50 times caught). In 2009, splitting time between Lansing and Dunedin, he stole 57 bases.

Last year he hit .290/.330/.347 in 47 games for the Braves Triple-A team in Gwinnett.

He is a right-handed bat, still just 25. I'd still love Alex to pick him up and give him a shot to take the second base job in spring training. I don't think he has options left, so he'd have to win a role on the team or exposed to waivers.

I don't think he would be great, but he might be a nice stopgap at second, playing there until Devon Travis is ready. If he doesn't win the job at second, he could be a utility infielder.  If he has a bad spring, let him go.

The Blue Jays one remaining question mark is the bullpen, but it's not as big a deal as some are making it.

Let's face it. It would have been nice to get another starting pitcher so Aaron Sanchez could start the season in the bullpen (I personally wanted Francisco Liriano). Or it would have been nice to sign one of the many relievers that have already been given new ZIP codes (I personally wanted Pat Neshek to get a postal code instead of a ZIP code).

But, we're over halfway through the off-season, and the Blue Jays' bullpen looks the same as at the end of the 2014 season. As pointed out by Tom Dakers, we currently have sure things in Aaron Loup, Brett Cecil, Chad Jenkins and Todd Redmond. Redmond likely still represents our long reliever, so that leaves two spots (three if we have a seven-man bullpen again) for effective, low-pitch-count relievers. The best hopes for these jobs that the Blue Jays have in-house currently are Steve Delabar, Aaron Sanchez and Rob Rasmussen. As Tom suggests, Sanchez would likely have to move to the bullpen if no other moves were made. Which might mean Marco Estrada is our fifth starter, at least until Daniel Norris gets called up. This is all because, while the infield was getting a much-needed facelift, the bullpen sat on the backburner.

This is a whole lot of posturing though. The fact is, there's a lot of offseason left for Alex Anthopoulos to address this issue. Similarly, the fact the bullpen was left to last is just smart management. I am a firm believer in the theory that suggests when building a championship team, you build the bullpen last.

So, although the Blue Jays have been mentioned in rumours of signing Francisco Rodriguez or trading for Wade Davis, I'm in favour of re-addressing the bullpen during spring training. That being said, if trading for Wade Davis all-of-a-sudden became worth it, I would hope Anthopoulos would jump on that opportunity. But relievers are such fickle things. Not to mention, they're one of the most available commodities come trade deadline time. Of note, top tier relievers Andrew Miller, Joakim Soria, Huston Street, Jason Grilli and Ernesto Frieri all changed teams at the deadline.

There's no question in my mind that teams that are performing below expectations will want to move out their expensive bullpen parts who are getting paid to close games that don't matter any more. Which relievers those will be, I'm not sure. I hold out hope that both Wade Davis and Greg Holland will become cheaper to acquire halfway through the season.

Anthopoulos has improved our offense enough to afford some time to re-evaluate his bullpen. If Steve Delabar gets back to form, maybe the Blue Jays need for a closer isn't that imminent. If not, maybe Aaron Sanchez can close games. If not, maybe Brett Cecil. This all seems more worth it to me than signing the now 33-year old Francisco Rodriguez (happy birthday by the way!).

Which relievers do you think will become available near the deadline? Which ones do you want made available?

Goober

Not quite enough hell was raised by the Raisel Iglesias contingent, as Michael Lorenzen slides into the #3 spot in this year's rankings with 42% of the vote, to Iglesias' 39%, a margin of just six votes. There's no denying Lorenzen's excellent 2014, in which he made mincemeat of the Southern League, posting a 3.13 ERA despite striking out just over 6 per 9 over 120 innings. That was along with low but not crazy low BABIP of .285. I feel pretty confident we'll see him in a wishbone-C at some point this season. Potentially before September if he continues to pitch well.

Alriiiiiight, one new name today that may cause some dissension in the ranks. Oh, and I filled in a few nicknames from last season as well.

Anthony DeSclafani, SP, 24

Highest 2014 Level:MLB (Miami Marlins)
Eye-Poppingest Fact:1.4 BB/9 in the MLB with a 5.2 K/BB ratio
Most Worrisome Fact:6.27 ERA in 33 innings with Miami.
Alias(es):Dino Spumoni, Tony Spaghetti 2.0, Disco, Gwen Sclafani

Anthony DeSclafani was the headliner in the deal for Mat Latos.  He was a 6th round pick out of the University of Florida by the Toronto Blue Jays.  He's pretty use to trades after being traded from Toronto in the Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle trade.  DeSclafani throws a low to mid 90's fastball with a plus slider and a workable changeup.  He has also been working on bring back his curveball.  DeSclafani is an aggressive pitcher who tries to control the strike zone and generate ground balls.  I posted his MLB numbers above because that seems to be what people focused on the most.  His MLB peripherals were good, but his results were not.  He showed the same ability to strikeout batters and keep walks low in AA and AAA last year.  I like to believe that his MLB numbers could have been a lot better.  DeSclafani will challenge for a spot in the Reds rotation, and if he fails will start in AAA.

Raisel Iglesias, SP/RP, 24

Highest 2014 Level:Arizona Fall League
Eye-Poppingest Fact:Gave up only 1 hit in 7 innings in the AZL
Most Worrisome Fact:Walked 3 batters in those 7 innings.
Alias(es):Racy Church, Tiny Dancer, Raise Hell [Eagle], Speed Raisel

Raisel Iglesias was signed by the Reds this summer for 7 years and $27 million dollars.  The eye poppingest and most worrisome facts are kind of a joke.  All we've seen Iglesias do is throw 7 innings in the Arizona Fall League.  They were 7 scoreless innings and he only gave up 1 hit.  If the Reds gave this much money to a guy you expect him to be good and that's why he going up on the voting list.  Iglesias can hit mid 90's out of the bullpen and has a good slurve/slider thing and has been working on a changeup.  He throws from a variety of different arm slots and is an athletic kid.  He is probably ready for AA right now.  Most scouts view Iglesias as a reliever, but the Reds have had luck turning relievers in to starters and that seems to be their plan for Iglesias.  Another draw back is his build.  He only measures in at 5'11 and 160 pounds, but scouts also believe he could fill out more.

Yorman Rodriguez, OF, 22

Highest 2014 Level:MLB (Cincinnati Reds)
Eye-Poppingest Fact:.331 OBP in AA Pensacola
Most Worrisome Fact:117 K's in 502 PA's
Alias(es):Tool Shed, Our Man, Michaelangelo

Here he is again, your perennial 5 tool player.  The guy that has been on this list longer than anyone else.  Yorman had himself an up and down year.  He started off slow, found himself injured, but came on like gangbusters at the end.  His hot end to the season was rewarded with a September call up to the big league squad, even if Bryan Price never played him.  The slow start had me hating pretty hard of Yorman at the beginning, but he ended up putting up a better season at AA than the year before.  He rose his BB% to 9.4, lowered his K% to 23.3, and raised his ISO 10 points.  His K rate is still way too high, but he continues to improve on his walk ability.  Yorman has all the tools to succeed as we have talked about before, but it all depends on him putting it all together.  He'll have to do it soon because he has only one option year left with the Reds.  Here is a fun fact.  Yorman is 22.  The Reds signed him when he was 16.  If he were a normal American player he'd just be finishing up his college career.

Phillip Ervin, OF, 22

Highest 2014 Level:A (Dayton)
Eye-Poppingest Fact:30 steals with 5 caught stealing.
Most Worrisome Fact:7 home runs in 561 PA's
Alias(es): Uncle Phil, Magic, Phil-pieces, The Slammer from Samford, Phlervin

Phillip Ervin was a 2013 first round pick out of Samford University.  He was the first ever first round pick from the university.  Ervin has all the tools to be a top prospect.  He has outstanding bat speed, good power, speed, and looks to be able to stick in CF.  What he's had problems with is injuries, and it looks like injuries derailed his 2014 season.  At the start of the season it is discovered that Ervin had double secret wrist surgery in the off season.  Apparently, it was some pretty serious stuff and his offense suffered for it.  He stuck it out and played the entire year, but we were hoping for more out of a 21/22 year old first round pick in single A.  He hit .237/.305/.376 in 2014, but his BB% (8.2%) and K% (19.6) weren't the worst things in the world.  He did steal 30 bases, and reports made it sound like his defense in center was good.  I'll assume he starts the season in A+ Daytona and hopefully can put the 2014 season in the rear view mirror.

Nick Travieso, SP, 20

Highest 2014 Level: A (Dayton)
Eye-Poppingest Fact: 3.03 ERA in 142 innings
Most Worrisome Fact: 3.93 FIP
Alias(es): Naughty Nick, Krampus

Nick Travieso was a bit of a surprise pick when the Reds selected him 14th overall in the 2012 draft.  His first full season in 2013 where he threw 81 innings of 4.63 ERA ball had people questioning the selection.  2014 saw Travieso break out in a big way in his second year in Dayton.  He increased his innings to 142, dropped his ERA to 3.03, lowered his walk rate and increased his K rate.  He finished off the season strong, posting a 1.22 ERA in his final 9 starts, holding the opposition to a.164/.280/.232 line.  Travieso should start the 2015 season in Daytona.

Aristides Aquino, OF, 20

Highest 2014 Level: Rookie (Billings)
Eye-Poppingest Fact: .285 ISO in 307 AB
Most Worrisome Fact: 4.9% walk-rate
Alias(es): Aristides a Little Bit Taller, Aristides a Baller; Skee-Lo; Heiress Titties

I'm a fan. Guys like this might be my favorite type of prospect to follow. Tantalizingly gifted, raw, flashes of brilliance, lots of refining needed. This 6'4/190 Dominican power-speed threat put together a really nice 2014 season in Billings: .292/.347/.577 with 16 HR and 21 SB in a mere 71 games, facing mostly college pitchers. Fangraphs' Kiley McDaniel hears from a Reds exec that Aquino is the "most advanced Latin hitter the organization has had in a long time." There are potential contact issues, evidenced by a 21.5% K-rate, and a puny 4.9% walk-rate is far from ideal, although his solid defensive track record suggests he'll likely end up a RF. Scouts are raving about him, and with another big season he could have some serious helium in future top 100ish lists. He'll start in Dayton.

Reports are emerging from Japan that potential Blue Jays import Takashi Toritani has decided to stay in Japan with the Hanshin Tigers. The 33-year-old second baseman was deciding whether to stay in his native country or sign with the Blue Jays or Padres. Toronto fans were hoping the Japanese standout would fill the team's massive hole at second base, but that possibility seems to be well and truly finished.

No substantial confirmation has come from North American sources, but a number of outlets in Japan have confirmed the news including this newspaper that reports that Toritani is staying.

【速報】鳥谷残留ｗｗｗｗｗｗｗｗｗｗ： トラニュース http://t.co/AFGM30WXRD#阪神タイガース#hanshin#tigerspic.twitter.com/TCU2HWFMFs

— トラニュース (@ToraNewsCom) January 8, 2015

There was also an article in Japanese that announced the news, although Google Translate doesn't really do us any favours trying to decipher it:

The major challenge was a long-cherished dream had been put into the field of view, but it became a form to meet the good faith of the tiger continued tenaciously Holdback. It's a pattern that was put in touch with Hanshin side late at night of the 8th.

As more English sources confirm the reports, the details will come into view but it looks like another possible Japanese signing has fallen through the Blue Jays fingers. The team will be forced to turn to the trade market to try and fill their second base position, unless they want to try and build a bridge to Devon Travis using a free agent signee (maybe Mark Ellis?).

It's also a blow to the Padres who have had a show-stopping offseason acquiring a number of stars, but still have a relatively weak infield when compared to their outfield trio. Both teams will now be in competition to shore up one of the few remaining holes in their respective teams.

Like Yu Darvish all over again...

The 29-year old catcher will head to Baltimore on a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.

Baltimore has five catchers on its 40-man roster, however the club was seeking major league experienced backstops this offseason. According to Dan Connolly of The Baltimore Sun, the Orioles have signed J.P. Arencibia to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training.

Arencibia, 29, was drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in the first round of the 2007 draft. In 2014 with Texas, he posted a .177/.239/.369 batting line to complement 10 home runs and 35 RBIs in 63 games. Arencibia has not been able to hit for average consistently throughout the course of his major league career, however he has shown he can be a power threat, most notably in 2013 when he posted 21 homers with Toronto.

Connolly also notes that Arencibia will be reunited with Scott Coolbaugh when Spring Training begins. He opened 2014 batting just .133 and was sent to Triple-A in May. Coolbaugh was Texas' minor league hitting coordinator who was hired to be Baltimore's major league hitting coach this offseason.

Although he was unable to produce consistently with the Rangers at the beginning of the season, Arencibia had offensive success after being sent down. In 49 games, he hit .279 with 14 home runs before he was recalled in July. His second half numbers with the Rangers only slightly improved, as he batted .196 with nine homers.

Arencibia is a versatile option who has experience playing first base. He also served as the Rangers' designated hitter at times last season, and was around the league average (26 percent) in success rate throwing out runners.

In addition to Arencibia, the Orioles have Matt Wieters, Caleb Joseph, Ryan Lavarnway, Steve Clevenger, and Michael Ohlman on their 40-man roster. With the exception of Wieters, Arencibia has more major league experience than any of the Baltimore catchers. Lavarnway is expected to be designated for assignment to make room on the roster for Delmon Young, and Arencibia could be the favorite to win a roster spot this spring.

What might the roster look like if the season were to start today?

Since there's basically nothing Blue Jays related going on these days, let's look forward a couple months and get a sense of what the opening day roster could look like with the players currently in the organization. There will be roster changes between now and opening day, maybe—hopefully—some substantial ones, but in the interim we'll work with what we've got.

Largely owing to a liberal use of waiver claims (seven and counting this winter), the Jays have a full 40-man roster. Come opening day, all players on the 40-man must be on the active roster unless they are on optional assignment. So we can start by placing all 40-man players who cannot be optioned on the roster. That is not always the easiest information to find, but fortunately here at Bluebird Banter we track and regularly update this in the Option and Outright Status entry in the Library links available on the main page. Below is an abridged version of that entry for the current 40-man roster:

You can see that 18 of the 40 cannot be optioned, which goes a long way towards filling up the 25-man active roster. Of the 18, nine are on guaranteed contracts. Another four (Estrada, Cecil, Valencia, Donaldson) are arbitration-eligible who were tendered 2015 contracts, leaving five pre-arb guys with no options (Tolleson, Drabek, Redmond, Hendriks, Barnes). Other than Redmond, none of the five are locks to make the opening day roster and are potential DFA candidates if 40-man spots are needed. But for now we'll assume they're in.

That leaves seven spots to fill from the 22 with options. There are four clear locks based on past performance: Stroman, Hutchison, Loup, and Saunders. Despite ambiguity from the team about his role, for this exercise Sanchez is included as a fifth lock since the current roster lacks for strong relievers. That brings the total to 23, and lines up as follows:

¹ - Editor's note: Ryan Kalish's minor league contract was not completed due to an unknown reason, according to Sportsnet's Shi Davidi in a report that came just after this piece was published.

Assuming a seven man bullpen (please!), that fills out the pitching staff and infield but only two outfield spots. That means the last two outfield spots go to the only other two outfielders on the 40-man, Pompey and Pillar, who make up the "needs" column. Estrada is slotted as the 5th starter, I could see Redmond or Hendriks potentially there. It's basically the only question mark I see with the current 40-man. In reality, some of the relievers left off the active roster have real shots to make the opening day roster at the fringes over some of the out of options players assumed safe for now. But one takeaway is that unlike the last few years the Jays can hypothetically carry keep everyone currently on the 40-man if they choose, without needing injuries to open up spots or going with a 8-man bullpen.

The next column shows the other 15 players on the 40-man left outside the 25-man projection, which is overloaded with potential relievers. The last column shows players not on the 40-man but with previous MLB experience as well as Devon Travis and Greg Infante who could potentially figure into the mix.

This also highlights the areas of weakness that should come as no surprise to most. Other than at catcher, the Jays lack quality depth up the middle, and lack established starting options at second base and in centrefield. The bullpen lacks in impact arms, on the other hand there's a rich assortment of potential options to choose from.

How would your opening day squad differ from the above based on the current roster?

Starter? Reliever? As long as he raises some hell...

Raisel Iglesias is kind of an unknown quantity right now, but he dominated his 7 innings in the AFL, projects to have 4 useable pitches, and is close to major league ready. That, to you dear readers, warranted the #4 spot on our list. There's still questions as to whether Iglesias will spend his time this year in a AAA rotation or the major league bullpen, but it'll be fascinating to watch his first full year stateside, and I know we here at Farmers Only are quite excited about it. One more name added, and spoiler alert: it's another pitcher.

Anthony DeSclafani, SP, 24

Highest 2014 Level:MLB (Miami Marlins)
Eye-Poppingest Fact:1.4 BB/9 in the MLB with a 5.2 K/BB ratio
Most Worrisome Fact:6.27 ERA in 33 innings with Miami.
Alias(es):Dino Spumoni, Tony Spaghetti 2.0, Disco, Gwen Sclafani

Anthony DeSclafani was the headliner in the deal for Mat Latos.  He was a 6th round pick out of the University of Florida by the Toronto Blue Jays.  He's pretty use to trades after being traded from Toronto in the Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle trade.  DeSclafani throws a low to mid 90's fastball with a plus slider and a workable changeup.  He has also been working on bring back his curveball.  DeSclafani is an aggressive pitcher who tries to control the strike zone and generate ground balls.  I posted his MLB numbers above because that seems to be what people focused on the most.  His MLB peripherals were good, but his results were not.  He showed the same ability to strikeout batters and keep walks low in AA and AAA last year.  I like to believe that his MLB numbers could have been a lot better.  DeSclafani will challenge for a spot in the Reds rotation, and if he fails will start in AAA.

Yorman Rodriguez, OF, 22

Highest 2014 Level:MLB (Cincinnati Reds)
Eye-Poppingest Fact:.331 OBP in AA Pensacola
Most Worrisome Fact:117 K's in 502 PA's
Alias(es):Tool Shed, Our Man, Michaelangelo

Here he is again, your perennial 5 tool player.  The guy that has been on this list longer than anyone else.  Yorman had himself an up and down year.  He started off slow, found himself injured, but came on like gangbusters at the end.  His hot end to the season was rewarded with a September call up to the big league squad, even if Bryan Price never played him.  The slow start had me hating pretty hard of Yorman at the beginning, but he ended up putting up a better season at AA than the year before.  He rose his BB% to 9.4, lowered his K% to 23.3, and raised his ISO 10 points.  His K rate is still way too high, but he continues to improve on his walk ability.  Yorman has all the tools to succeed as we have talked about before, but it all depends on him putting it all together.  He'll have to do it soon because he has only one option year left with the Reds.  Here is a fun fact.  Yorman is 22.  The Reds signed him when he was 16.  If he were a normal American player he'd just be finishing up his college career.

Phillip Ervin, OF, 22

Highest 2014 Level:A (Dayton)
Eye-Poppingest Fact:30 steals with 5 caught stealing.
Most Worrisome Fact:7 home runs in 561 PA's
Alias(es): Uncle Phil, Magic, Phil-pieces, The Slammer from Samford, Phlervin

Phillip Ervin was a 2013 first round pick out of Samford University.  He was the first ever first round pick from the university.  Ervin has all the tools to be a top prospect.  He has outstanding bat speed, good power, speed, and looks to be able to stick in CF.  What he's had problems with is injuries, and it looks like injuries derailed his 2014 season.  At the start of the season it is discovered that Ervin had double secret wrist surgery in the off season.  Apparently, it was some pretty serious stuff and his offense suffered for it.  He stuck it out and played the entire year, but we were hoping for more out of a 21/22 year old first round pick in single A.  He hit .237/.305/.376 in 2014, but his BB% (8.2%) and K% (19.6) weren't the worst things in the world.  He did steal 30 bases, and reports made it sound like his defense in center was good.  I'll assume he starts the season in A+ Daytona and hopefully can put the 2014 season in the rear view mirror.

Nick Travieso, SP, 20

Highest 2014 Level: A (Dayton)
Eye-Poppingest Fact: 3.03 ERA in 142 innings
Most Worrisome Fact: 3.93 FIP
Alias(es): Naughty Nick, Krampus

Nick Travieso was a bit of a surprise pick when the Reds selected him 14th overall in the 2012 draft.  His first full season in 2013 where he threw 81 innings of 4.63 ERA ball had people questioning the selection.  2014 saw Travieso break out in a big way in his second year in Dayton.  He increased his innings to 142, dropped his ERA to 3.03, lowered his walk rate and increased his K rate.  He finished off the season strong, posting a 1.22 ERA in his final 9 starts, holding the opposition to a.164/.280/.232 line.  Travieso should start the 2015 season in Daytona.

Aristides Aquino, OF, 20

Highest 2014 Level: Rookie (Billings)
Eye-Poppingest Fact: .285 ISO in 307 AB
Most Worrisome Fact: 4.9% walk-rate
Alias(es): Aristides a Little Bit Taller, Aristides a Baller; Skee-Lo; Heiress Titties

I'm a fan. Guys like this might be my favorite type of prospect to follow. Tantalizingly gifted, raw, flashes of brilliance, lots of refining needed. This 6'4/190 Dominican power-speed threat put together a really nice 2014 season in Billings: .292/.347/.577 with 16 HR and 21 SB in a mere 71 games, facing mostly college pitchers. Fangraphs' Kiley McDaniel hears from a Reds exec that Aquino is the "most advanced Latin hitter the organization has had in a long time." There are potential contact issues, evidenced by a 21.5% K-rate, and a puny 4.9% walk-rate is far from ideal, although his solid defensive track record suggests he'll likely end up a RF. Scouts are raving about him, and with another big season he could have some serious helium in future top 100ish lists. He'll start in Dayton.

Nick Howard, SP, 21

Highest 2014 Level: Low-A (Dayton)
Eye-Poppingest Fact: 1.16 WHIP
Most Worrisome Fact: 6.1 K/9 (SSS, these stats mean very little)
Alias(es): Richie Cunningham

2014's 19th overall first-round pick out of Virginia, Nick Howard is another college reliever-cum-starter drafted by the Reds. Howard has three potential pitches (fastball, slider, change) that could eventually play at the major league level, with the changeup being the weakest of the three. He managed 33.2 innings of 3.74 ERA ball at Dayton before the season ended, then started 6 games in the AFL to a less appetizing but equally meaningless 4.43 ERA. His ceiling isn't as high as some of the other pitchers in the system, but he looks to be at worst case a solid relief option. He'll likely start in the rotation for the newfangled Daytona Tortugas.

Jays are interested in John Axford.

The rumor mill is revving up again, after a few slow weeks around the holiday season.

Jon Heyman tells us this:

things heating up for john axford. four teams in. blue jays are looking at the ontario native, among others.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) January 9, 2015

I'll admit, I'm not exactly thrilled with the idea of adding him, but we could use more arms to compete for a spot in the pen. My worry, he walked 5.9/9 innings last season. We couldn't keep Jeremy Jeffress around because he walked too many.  Career he's allowed 4.4 walks/9. He does get a lot of strikeouts, last year 10.4/9.

Axford is 31, he'll be 32 April. He has 116 career saves (if that matters to you) and 46 in 2011 for the Brewers. He can throw hard, Fangraphs lists him as averaging 94.4 mph on his fastball last year. And he is Canadian.

In other Blue Jays news, Shi Davidi tells us that the minor league deal the Jays had with outfield Ryan Kalish has fallen through. Davidi doesn't tell us why. Perhaps there is a physical issue, though since it was only a minor league contract, I don't know what sort of injury would void the contract.

Kalish would have given us some much need outfield depth. A left-handed bat who can play all 3 outfield spots, wouldn't be a bad thing to have. His career .245/.293/.350 slash line doesn't make you think you'll love to see him in the Jays outfield, but he did give us an option if one of the regular outfielder was injured.

I wonder what the problem was.

And, Jon Heyman also tweeted:

takashi toritani, ss who's played 1,444 straight games for hanshin, stayed w/ hanshin. blue jays never made official offer.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) January 9, 2015

I was sure that Alex said that the Jays had made an offer. In fact it surprised me that Alex was so clear about it, normally he's pretty hard to read. I guess it isn't important, but I would like to know if Alex was lying to us.

Armed with a new pitch, Marcus Stroman is on the verge of breaking out into one of the American League's best starting pitchers

Marcus Stroman has been dismissed as a starting pitcher all of his life because of his height. Stroman stands at 5’8 and doesn’t have the prototypical long frame that most scouts want to see in a pitcher. Tall pitchers are preferred as prospects because they release the ball closer to home plate, generate more of a downward angle on their pitches and are better equipped to handle the workload of a starter.

Although tall pitchers have a better chance of finding success because of these traits, that doesn’t mean a short pitcher cannot find success. Marcus Stroman is proof of that. Stroman is on the verge of breaking out into one of the American League’s best starting pitchers.

Quick overview of Marcus Stroman’s 2014 rookie season

Stroman finished his rookie season with an elite FIP- of 73. Using 130 IP as the minimum, Stroman would have been 12^th best in baseball in FIP-, ahead of notable big free agents Max Scherzer and Jon Lester. His 2.84 FIP would have been 16^th best in baseball. These statistics include a short and rocky stint in the bullpen to open his season.

Here’s a quick overview of Stroman’s results in 124 IP as a starter:

With a K% of 20.8% and a BB% of 5.2%, Stroman’s strikeout and walk rates were better than league average. He generated strong ground ball (53.8%) and fly ball (27.7%) percentages which are important for success in the home run friendly AL East. Blue Jays players play over 100 games in home run friendly parks. Keeping a low fly ball percentage limits the chances that Stroman will be burned by a fly ball going over the fence.

Change in approach fueling the potential 2015 breakout

Those numbers above are skewed because Stroman underwent a significant change in repertoire and approach during the season. Eric Koreen of The National Post wrote,

Marcus Stroman’s dominating performance against the ChicagoCubs on Monday was perhaps the best performance by a Blue Jays starter this year, aside from Drew Hutchison’s August mastery of the BaltimoreOrioles. He threw a 93-pitch complete-game shutout, surrendering just three hits, striking out eight and walking none.

It was a less glamourous statistic that had reporters talking after, however: Stroman recorded 16 of the 27 outs via ground balls. Stroman credited his two-seam fastball — colloquially called a "sinker" because of the downward trajectory of the pitch.

"It allows me to go deep into games. I used to be a high-pitch guy: five innings, six innings, a ton of pitches and high punch-outs," Stroman said of the pitch after Monday’s game. "Now I feel like I’m really learning how to pitch. Using that pitch, I’m able to go deeper, keep the ball on the ground. I’m able to get double plays when I need them."

Stroman started to use the sinker more often in his July 19 start against Texas, after finding a grip he was comfortable while fiddling around with a baseball at home.

According to PITCHf/x,Stroman did not use his sinker until that July 19^th start against Texas. In those 12 final starts, Stroman threw his sinker 23.3% of the time. His four seam use dropped significantly, from 56.6% to 33.7%.

Stroman flourished with the new approach. His FIP dropped to 2.43 during that stretch with an amazing FIP- of 63. For a loose reference, Stroman’s 63 FIP- would have been the best the American League over the course of a full season, but obviously you can’t project that due to the size of the sample.

Here’s a comparison of Stroman’s results pre two seamer use and post two seamer use:

This is not an arbitrary endpoint, either, because a tangible, significant change in Stroman’s process on the mound took place. The addition of Stroman's sinker took him to elite levels of performance.

Repertoire

Here’s a table of Stroman’s pitch types pre approach change and post approach change:

Two seam (sinker) fastball

Stroman’s two seam fastball is amazing and is one of the best pitches I saw all season from a starter. The movement and fast speed of the pitch make it an incredibly exciting offering. The sinker played a huge role in his strong GB% and FB%; Stroman generated a 64% GB% and a 9% FB% with the pitch.

His two seamer has strong two plane movement, darting both downward and back to the arm side. It moves like a screw ball, and comes in hard at around 93-94 mph. The reason why Stroman generates such a strong GB% and FB% with the pitch is because of its late downward movement. The ball often hits the bottom of the barrel, generating forward spin that causes the ball to dive into the ground.

Weak contact

Stroman’s two seamer has so much movement that hitters have a very difficult time putting the sweet spot of barrel on the ball, which is one reason why Stroman’s hard hit rate was third best in baseball.

Here are examples of Stroman generating very weak contact with his two seamer:

Even Miguel Cabrera hit the ball weakly against Stroman’s two seamer:

Backdoor two seamer

Stroman also uses the movement on his two seamer to start the pitch outside of the strike zone with the goal of grazing the plate on the backdoor against righties.

Here’s Stroman throwing a backdoor two seamer that strikes Derek Jeter out looking:

Here’s Stroman throwing an even nastier backdoor two seamer to strikeout Mookie Betts:

A backdoor two seamer to strike out Miguel Cabrera:

Stroman shows off fantastic command with this pitch. Command is different than control: control is the ability to throw strikes, command is the ability to put the ball exactly where you want it.

Swing and miss

Stroman doesn’t get a whole lot of swinging strikes with this pitch, but he can still make a hitter look foolish with it. Here’s Stroman generating a swinging strike against Mookie Betts:

Jamming righties

Stroman also throws his two seamer in on the hands of righties to jam them. The pitch looks to be a fat pitch over the heart of the plate but breaks off the plate inside. A committing hitter will have the ball hit low on the bat towards the handle, which can result in the ball breaking the bat. That is what happens here:

Here’s what the batter sees when he must decide whether to commit to swing or not:

Here’s where the ball ends up after the batter decides to swing:

Stroman’s two seamer resulted in a wRC+ against of 58 and OPS against of .511. The outstanding movement, combined with the hard velocity, makes the pitch Stroman’s best asset.

Slider

Stroman’s slider is an excellent swing and miss pitch against righties. Stroman’s slider has strong two plane movement, breaking down and away from righties:

Here’s a wipeout slider thrown to Javier Baez:

Allen Craig swings for a vertically dropping curve but is met with a slider:

Here’s fantastic slider location:

Stroman's slider produced a wRC+ against of 70 and OPS against of .568.

Curve

Stroman throws a sharp, tight curve that is thrown as a spike pitch down and out of the strike zone with primarily vertical drop. Stroman likes to throw his curve to get swing and misses against lefties.

Here’s Stroman throwing a hellacious 83 mph curve to strike out Chris Coghlan:

The curve produced a wRC+ against of 83 and an OPS against of .606.

4 seam (straight) fastball

Despite not having the large frame of a traditional pitcher, Stroman brings one of the hardest four seamers in the game. Stroman maxed out at 96.5 mph with the pitch and averaged 93.6 mph with it for the year, which was 15^th best in baseball (minimum 130 IP). Stroman had good results with the pitch, generating a wRC+ against of 93 and an OPS against of .636.

Stroman’s 95 mph four seamer:

Cutter

Stroman’s cutter generates a high number of ground balls (61.7%) and limits fly balls (26.7%), which is a very good thing. It moves much differently than his two seamer, cutting away from arm side. Stroman’s cutter resulted in a 117 wRC+ against and a .725 OPS against.

Here’s his cutter:

Change Up

Stroman’s least effective pitch, and pitch he needs the most work on, is his change up. The pitch was tattooed in 2014 to a 174 wRC+ against and a .931 OPS against.

I’m no professional scout, but it appears that Stroman is slowing his arm motion down on the pitch here, which tips off to the hitter what is coming. A good change up is thrown with the same arm action and same spin as a fastball, but the pitcher uses a weak grip instead of a strong grip to account for the velocity drop.

Tell me if you see the same thing.

Hard hit rate

Stroman was incredibly difficult to square up in 2014. Stroman amazingly had the third best hard hit rate in baseball. This is important because weaker contact is much easier for defenders to field and turn into outs than harder contact. You saw prime examples above of Stroman generating weak contact with his fantastic two seam fastball.Stroman's cutter also moves just enough to avoid the sweet spot of the barrel, limiting hard contact.

Final Thoughts

After seeing Stroman's pitches, I was surprised that his swinging strike rate was below league average. His stuff is plenty good enough to miss bats.

Steamer projects Stroman to throw 192 IP with a 3.75 ERA and a 3.54 FIP. Obviously, I disagree with Steamer here. I'm not sure if Steamer is taking into account Stroman's approach change into those numbers, either, but Stroman's combination of nasty stuff, good command, and superb FIP has me pinpointing 2015 as a breakout for him.

Bonus interview from 2013: Stroman credits his father for his success:

MiLB.com: It sounds like your family has been a big influence on your career.

Stroman: I can't preach to you enough. Me and my dad all growing up, we didn't have the best relationship at the time, but it was because he wanted the most for me. He pushed me to the limit where sometimes it put our relationship on edge, but I can't thank him enough now that he did that for me. He really made me the athlete I am today. From taking me to putting me in every league to pushing me to run on hills, you can name it, he did it for me. My mom was there to comfort when times were getting tough, when my dad was pushing me too hard. It was a good balance and I have a great relationship with them. I want to make it to the next level and spoil them and give back to the people who made me who I am.

The greatest pitcher in D'backs history became a member of the HOF, receiving 97.3 of the votes.

Quotes

"I picked up a lot.I don't know about him, but I was competing with him. That was what made it fun. R.J. was like, I guess I would compare him to like the early career of Tiger Woods -- every day you watched him, you were pretty sure you were going to see one thing you had never seen before. There were games that you saw a lot of things that you've never seen before."

- Curt Schilling on Randy Johnson

Daily D'backs

Schilling: Johnson greatest lefty hurler of all time - dbacks.com

2001 World Series was fans' favorite Randy Johnson Diamondbacks moment - Arizona Sports 620

A total of 841 votes were submitted, and 68 percent of voters chose the 2001 World Series as their favorite moment. Johnson went 3-0 with a 1.04 ERA and 19 strikeouts in two starts and one relief appearance against the New York Yankees in the D-backs' first and only World Series victory.

Dave Stewart: Price too high for catchers via trade - azcentral.com

On the day the Diamondbacks traded Miguel Montero, General Manager Dave Stewart said finding another catcher was something the club had to do. But after seeing the cost of catchers on the trade market, Stewart doesn't seem to feel that way anymore.

John McDonald calls it a career - dbacks.com

John McDonald, who willed his way through a 16-year career with eight different teams as a backup infielder, has decided to retire from the game at age 40. News of his decision spread Wednesday, when four teams -- the Indians, Blue Jays, D-backs and Angels -- offered up congratulations through their individual Twitter accounts. McDonald was that popular.

Around Baseball

Spring workout dates announced for all clubs

Yankees To Sign Stephen Drew - mlbtraderumors.com