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Blue Jays Spending Efficiency Under Alex Anthopoulos

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"It's not my money": a common refrain among baseball fans during hot stove season when justifying why their team should do whatever it takes to sign Player X or make Upgrade Y, regardless of the consequences on the income statement. The reality, of course, is that as long as MLB teams remain profit oriented businesses and not charities, budget constraints must be accounted for (and hasn't that been fun the last couple of winters). Likewise then, fans must care about how wisely and efficiently their team is spending limited resources to see their team succeed as much as possible.

The last week has seen the Dan Duquette replacing Paul Beeston rumours re-ignite, intertwined with reports of potential palace intrigue at Rogers, questions of whether it's fair to Beeston, and what inserting a baseball guy as his direct superior could mean for the future of current Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos. After all, 2015 will be his sixt season in charge, without having produced a playoff team or late season legitimate contender. His predecessors J.P. Ricciardi and Gord Ash lasted eight and seven seasons respectively with a similar record or futility, so by standard the clock would definitely seem to be ticking toward midnight.

Obviously, playoff appearances is not the only way to measure a GM, and for all we know the powers that be at Rogers (whomever they may ultimately be) may be sufficiently pleased with his tenure. Attendance is up, TV ratings are up, the major league roster has more talent than when he took over, as does the farm, and the Jays don't have any albatross contracts on the books. To at least some degree, all of these speak well of Anthopoulos's tenure.

Right before 2014 started, I wanted to get an idea of how well the Jays projected to have allocated their budget dollars. I took the projected team wins (82) from FanGraphs (via their depth charts), and compared that to the opening day payroll from Cot's Contracts ($137-million). In both cases, measured relative to replacement level, roughly 48 wins and $20-million payroll for a replacement team, so we subtract those numbers to get WAR and PAR. There's multiple ways to interpret the data, but the regardless of method the Jays ranked near the bottom of the league, between fifth and seventh worst. And at the end of the season, with 83 actual wins, the Jays were had the ninth worst ratio. This doesn't speak so well of Anthopoulos.

Going back to the beginning of the piece, for me a significant part of measuring a manager's performance is how good (s)he is at turning inputs into outputs, in this case, that's turning dollars into wins. So let's take a look at how the current front office measures up:

The blue line if the cost per win (both above replacement) for 2010-14. The red line is the MLB average. In 2010, the Jays overachieved expectations and won 85 games with a payroll of about $84-million. That worked out to $1.8-million per win compared to league average around $2.4-million, so the payroll was well spent. In 2011, payroll went down a little bit, as did the wins, and the status quo was mostly maintained.

2012 didn't go so well. Payroll increased to above the 2010 total, but the win total collapsed in the second half, which sent the ratio above league average. And then of course 2013 happened, with payroll way up and just a single solitary win. In 2014, the ratio finally corrected a little bit, though as discussed above was still quite inefficient.

To make the trend a little more stark, suppose Alex Anthopoulos's five years were divided into halves, 405 games each. In the first half, the Jays spent about $191-million to win to win 203 games, which works out to $1.9-million per win above replacement ($162/83). In the second half, they've spent $298-million to win 194 games, or $3.6-million/WAR ($264/74). I'll grant this is somewhat cherry-picked, since it divides 2012 into the decent first half and horrible second half, but bottom line is they've added a lot of payroll while actually going backwards in the win column even taking out 2012.

In fairness, this is not by any means a perfect measure, as a new GM does not start with a clean slate. In the first few years specially, the GM will have a roster they didn't construct and payroll obligations to which they didn't commit. Which makes that stark contrast above perhaps even less palatable: the more the roster and payroll have reflected Anthopoulos's decisions, the worse the efficiency has been.

What about 2015? FanGraphs is current projecting 37.6 WAR, and I estimate a payroll of about $130-million ($116-million above replacement), which would work out to about $3.1-million per WAR. As the league number will bump up with salary inflation, this would put the Jays right around league average. Certainly much better than 2012-14, but with the payroll seemingly dropping, not necessarily enough to get to the playoffs. In the end, it may well be that poor spending begat a falling payroll that more efficient spending cannot offset enough to make headway towards the playoffs.


"Dalton Pompey or bust" is a disaster waiting to happen

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A lot of talk this offseason has focused around the team's holes at second base and the bullpen, which has allowed a rather questionable center base situation to fly under the radar. While fans worry about the possibility of 11-year major league veteran Maicer Izturis starting the season at second, the fact that 22-year-old Dalton Pompey has been given the job in center field doesn't seem to attract much hesitation. While Pompey may eventually become "the Great" (the numerous puns in this post are intended), he currently has 43 major league plate appearances on a team that is staring down a narrow two year window to compete. Beyond that, the other feasible option for the starting job was traded away earlier in the season leaving the position even more thin.

While his Roman namesake may have secured military successes at a similar age to Dalton, the odds that the Canadian is anything but a weak spot in the batting lineup seem relatively small. While the 2014 season was an absolute dream for the switch hitter, he has yet to have 100 PA above Double-A making him one of the most unexperienced players on a team that should be contending  for the playoffs. When he was originally called up in September, the team was so cautious with him that he didn't receive his first start until the 19th. That doesn't exactly reek of a front office confident of a player that will be the starting center fielder a few months later.  The fact that the team has done little to at least provide some depth at the position could come back to bite them, considering even an injury would turn the outfield situation into a disaster.

What the young player does have in his favour is an abundance of speed and defensive skills, which tend to hold up at any level of professional baseball. Pompey's floor is relatively Gose-esque, which could make you optimistic or terrified depending on how much you like a center fielder who can be counted on to hit his weight. Granted, Pompey is considered by most to be a better hitter than Gose, but the fact that he hasn't proven it at the major league level still leaves much to be desired. Some people will be happy with a player in center who holds his own defensively and sits at the bottom of the lineup with the speed to make something happen in the times he does end up on base.

Even Pompey himself admits he's not entirely confident of his right-handed hitting ability when speaking to Brendan Kennedy of The Star:

A switch-hitter, Pompey has been working harder on his right-handed swing, something he realized was necessary after running into the world’s best southpaws in the majors, including Andrew Miller, who struck him out on four pitches.

"Once I got to the big leagues I realized how good the left-handed pitching was."

With so small of a relevant sample for the Mississauga native, it's tough to draw many conclusions about how the future will play out. As I sit here re-watching a game from last season, Pompey looks like a young player with a solid enough approach but still clearly overmatched by major league pitching. That's exactly the type of prospect you would make your starting center fielder in a season where you expect to play .500 ball, but not in a season where anything short of the playoffs will result in extreme disappointment. It actually may be easier to imagine a Toronto Blue Jays playoff team with Maicer Iztruis at second base than it would be with Dalton Pompey in center.

While the situation hardly calls for a blockbuster trade to acquire a star center fielder, it certainly is a scenario where Alex Anthopoulos should make it a priority to add some sort of depth to the position. If either poor play or injuries forces Pompey out of the starting job, then the team will have no one to blame except themselves for fast-tracking their best position player prospect in years through the minor leagues without any sort of Plan B. Maybe that trade for a second baseman and reliever should include a center fielder throw-in as well.

What to make of Toronto's pursuit of Dan Duquette

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Why are the Blue Jays chasing Baltimore's general manager, and why is MLB getting involved?

The Toronto Blue Jays' ongoing attempts to pry Orioles GM Dan Duquette away from Baltimore continued Monday, with Jon Morosi of Fox Sports reporting that Major League Baseball was involved in negotiations with the Jays and Orioles.

Toronto is attempting to hire Duquette as the team's CEO after his impressive success in Baltimore, where he has been since 2011 and remains under contract through 2018. Despite claims from the Orioles that Duquette is going nowhere, the situation remains unresolved, and Duquette has yet to address the rumors publicly.

The Jays' pursuit of Duquette is certainly odd, especially as it continues to drag on throughout the winter. What remains unclear are Toronto's motivations, why MLB is now involved and just when the issue will be resolved.

Why does Toronto want Duquette so badly?

A number of MLB teams have begun hiring high-profile GMs to president and CEO roles in recent years, and the Jays clearly want to do the same with Duquette after seeing the likes of Andrew Friedman and Theo Epstein land with the Dodgers and Cubs. Why Toronto is so determined to hire Duquette even as the Orioles resist is harder to figure out.

Duquette has done a remarkable job with the Orioles, helping construct a roster that has earned two playoff berths in the last three seasons, and Toronto certainly believes his experience can be an asset. Even still, Duquette's position with the division-rival Orioles makes luring him away a tricky endeavor, and it's not like there aren't other qualified candidates out there. That MLB is getting involved indicates Toronto's desire to hire Duquette hasn't changed.

How far will the Orioles go to keep Duquette?

Thus far the Orioles haven't budged from their stance that Duquette will remain in Baltimore. Team owner Peter Angelos said last week that Duquette landing in Toronto is "not going to happen" and denied the two sides were negotiating.

Baltimore's motivations for keeping Duquette are obvious given all the success the club has had during his brief tenure as GM. He is under contract for another four years, and the Orioles have every right to keep him. Still, if Duquette wants to leave, it might not be in Baltimore's best interests to force him to stay. All the uncertainty surrounding Duquette's future makes his relationship with the team an awkward situation.

Why is MLB getting involved?

With Toronto's interest dragging on, MLB has reached out to the Orioles a few times regarding Duquette's status. This isn't unprecedented -- the league's office often gets involved with issues of compensation when executives switch teams -- but it is odd to see MLB appear to be backing the Jays, something Buster Olney of ESPN acknowledged Monday:

How much MLB can really do is hard to determine, especially if Angelos truly wants to keep Duquette no matter the cost. MLB and Angelos have butted heads before, most notably over the Nationals' move to Washington D.C.

The biggest factor driving the Blue Jays' continued interest is Duquette himself, who is clearly intrigued by the opportunity -- it would be a promotion, of course. At the moment, the only way this situation gets resolved quickly is if Duquette declares he is staying in Baltimore, something he hasn't done as of yet.

As long as Duquette remains silent, the Blue Jays will likely continue their pursuit.

Question Time: How did you become a Blue Jays fan?

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There isn't much for Blue Jays news, other than the continuing saga of Edward Rogers III trying to replace Paul Beeston. As much as I think the Blue Jays owe Beeston a more dignified end to his long career with the team, I think I'll save other thoughts on that subject for last.

So I thought I'd ask you all: How did you become a Blue Jay fan?

I'm always curious about how people come to baseball as their sport to watch, especially in this country, where hockey isn't just a sport. And, of course, after choosing baseball as you sport to follow, how did you come upon the Jays has your team.

For me. I've liked baseball for as long as I can remember. Maybe part of it was the math, I always like numbers. but most of it, I think, was the situations. The anticipation. Runner on first, will he steal, will they bunt (please no). Bases loaded, how are we going to get out of this.

Then there were my Expos. I owe a lot of my love of the game to Gary Carter, Andre Dawson, Tim Raines, Steve Rogers, Al Oliver and the TV people, Dave Van Horne, Duke Snider and, later, Ken Singleton. I really like Duke Snider as the analyst. He had a nice way of explaining to the game to those of us just learning. I'm sure, if I could go back and listen now, I'd complain about how much wrong information he gave out, but, at the time, he seemed great. I didn't know he was a Hall of Fame center fielder until much later. And Dave Van Horne had such a nice way of calling the games, it was easy to become a fan.

The Expos taught me the fun of watching prospects come up to the majors and grow as players. They also taught me how baseball can be the saddest game on earth. Steve Rogers giving up the home run in the top of the 9th, in game 5 of the 1981 National League Championship was the worst moment of my baseball life.

Then Bill James started writing his Baseball Abstracts, and it make me more of a baseball fan. It is hard to explain how much of a game changer Bill James was. Back then, all the stats you got were batting average, home runs and RBI. For pitchers it was won/loss, ERA and saves. Bill James showed us things that were never thought of, even things as simple as on base percentage. The first time I (or really anyone) saw batting splits against left handed and right handed hitters was in the Bill James Baseball Abstract. It was a big deal, at least to me. I learned so much more about the game. And, he made you think you were part of a special club that understood baseball in a way that most people didn't.

Around the same time, the Blue Jays were, finally, starting to put together a good, young team. You could watch young players with potential. In the early 80's they had the best outfield in baseball, with George Bell, Lloyd Moesby and Jesse Barfield. Tony Fernandez was a young and flashy shortstop. I don't think there was ever a pitcher I liked to watch more than Dave Stieb. I was a big fan of Ernie Whitt and Rance Mulliniks.

In 1985 they made the playoffs. From then forward, was a Blue Jays fan.

I've had moments when I was an 'anyone but the Yankees fan'. I was happy anytime anyone beat them. And, as much as MLB tried to kill off any love I had for the Expos, I continued to be a fan, until MLB finally killed them, but, through the good and bad (and there has been a lot of bad) I've been a Blue Jays fan, even when I couldn't understand what Gord Ash was trying to do with the team.

Astros announce signing of Colby Rasmus; designate Carlos Corporan for assignment

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Astros officially announce signing of Colby Rasmus, designate Carlos Corporan for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster.

After a day filled with rumors that began on The Crawfish Boxes and reports of the Houston Astros and Colby Rasmus working on a deal, the deal is done. The Astros announced the signing of the former Toronto Blue Jay, Colby Rasmus:

The deal is a one-year contract for a reported $8 million reports Jon Morosi of Fox Sports:

Rasmus was originally selected in the first-round of the 2005 First-Year Player Draft by the St. Louis Cardinals. At the time of the draft, current Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow served as a vice president. Rasmus was traded to the Blue Jays in 2011 as part of a eight-player deal. During his four seasons with the Blue Jays, Rasmus started 347 games in center field (408 games total) and batted .234/.295/.438.

To make room for Rasmus on the roster, the Astros announced a corresponding move to designate Carlos Corpoan for assignment.

Corporan served as the Astros backup catcher for the past two seasons. Corporan was signed as a free agent 2010 after being cut by the Diamondbacks, Houston would cut and resign Corporan a year later. Last season Corporan appeared in 55 games, and batted .226/.286/.350.

Corporan's depature has been written the wall since the acquisition of former Angels' catcher Hank Conger this past November. That was only compound with the recent of addition of catcher Evan Gattis. The Astros had five players that could play catcher on their 40-man roster coming into today - Jason Castro, Max Stassi, Conger, Gattis, and Corporan. The Astros have ten days to complete their transaction.

Dodgers land key development piece in Clayton McCullough

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The Toronto Blue Jays’ loss is the Los Angeles Dodgers’ gain.

After nine seasons in a number of different roles within the Blue Jays organization to follow a seven-year minor league career with the Cleveland Indians, Clayton McCullough accepted the position of minor league field coordinator with the Dodgers this off-season, leaving a void within the Toronto franchise.

"It was the biggest loss for us on the development side, along with [pitching coordinator] Dane Johnson," director of minor league operations Charlie Wilson said of the winter. "We lost two main cogs.

"Clayton, to sum it up in one word, was outstanding. He was a great person, he’s a great coach, he has the ability to relate to young players, to teach, and to instruct, which is a gift. He knows the game really well."

The 35-year-old joined the Blue Jays in 2006 as a coach with the organization’s rookie Appalachian League affiliate in Pulaski. He got his first chance as a professional manager the following season in the Gulf Coast League, before moving onto two years as manager of the Lansing Lugnuts in the Class-A Midwest League.

The former catcher followed that up with two years as the skipper of the Class-A Advanced Florida State League’s Dunedin Blue Jays before leading the short-season Vancouver Canadians to two consecutive Northwest League championships in 2012 and 2013. He also helped the Canberra Cavalry to a Claxton Shield victory in the Australian Baseball League and an Asia Series win after one winter in the circuit.

Last season, McCullough was promoted to the position as the roving coordinator of instruction down on Toronto’s farm before taking on his latest role.

"In his time with us – not only as a manager and a hitting coach, and of course in his year as a rover and the coordinator of instruction – he was invaluable," Wilson said. "He coaches the young coaches in addition to all of the players. He touched a lot of guys and made a lot of guys better. He brings enthusiasm every day, is professional, hardworking; just a true Blue Jay.

"So I’m delighted for him that he gets the opportunity but it’s a tough loss for us."

"He coaches the young coaches in addition to all of the players. He touched a lot of guys and made a lot of guys better. He brings enthusiasm every day." -Charlie Wilson on Clayton McCullough

McCullough’s hiring came under Gabe Kapler, a former big-league outfielder who took the position of the Dodgers’ new farm director earlier this off-season. While the Blue Jays are sad to see such a valuable asset go, the opportunity is huge for the native of North Carolina.

"Clayton not only was a great worker and employee for us, but he was a really good friend," Toronto’s assistant general manager Andrew Tinnish said. "It’s a great opportunity for him. In this game it’s difficult to have continuity within not just our coaching staffs, but front office and scouting departments and development. And that’s part of the business."

The bittersweet goodbye for Toronto and for Tinnish saw him lose a great contributor within the ball club they shared, while watching a friend continue to climb the ladder within the sport. He is confident McCullough will find similar successes no matter where he is.

"The people who are very talented in this game are going to move up or they’re going to have opportunities to move on, and you only hope the best for them," Tinnish said. "The Dodgers made a great hire. He’s a great guy, he’s a great worker, he’s got a lot of energy, he has a great eye for talent, and he does a nice job of developing players."

★★★

You can read more from Alexis Brudnicki at the Canadian Baseball Network, and follow her on Twitter at @baseballexis.

Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 1/21/15

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NJ.com | Maria Guardado: While the Yankees have been monitoring Johan Santana's progress as he strives to return to the majors, they'll be facing some competition if they want to add him to their team.

ESPN New York | Andrew Marchand: The folks over at Bovada have not given the Yankees great odds to win the World Series in 2015 - in fact, they've got the fourth lowest odds among those in the AL East, beating out just the Tampa Bay Rays.

It's About the Money | Brad Vietrogoski: Before revealing the top 30 prospects in the Yankees system, take a look at the five that just missed the cut, including Dermis Garcia and Nick Rumbelow.

LoHud Yankees Blog | Chad Jennings: What if some of the things that could go wrong in Spring Training do go wrong?  Taking a look at how the Yankees can respond if some of the worst-case scenarios come to pass.

New York Post | Ken Davidoff: The Yankees have made some improvements this offseason, but overall, the Bronx Bombers have lost ground to both the Blue Jays and the Red Sox.

The Loonie, The Turf, and The Blue Jays

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The Loonie

Congratulations to all our non-Canadian (and non-Russian) readers: you did not lose a chunk of your wealth today! The Bank of Canada announced a cut in interest rates this morning, causing the market to plunge the Canadian dollar to depths not seen in the past several years. Canadians may have to get used to the 80-(American) cent loonie going forward.

The 20% loss of value of the Canadian dollar compared to two years ago will affect the Blue Jays' finances going forward, as Blue Jays ticket stubs are received (mostly) in Canadian dollars while player salaries are doled out in American greenbacks. However, there are several factors that contribute to the club cushion the volatilities of foreign exchange rates.

The Blue Jays do take in a good portion of their revenue in U.S. dollars, probably a much larger portion than the last currency crisis around the turn of the century with the 60-something-cent dollar. Shared merchandise licensing money come from Major League Baseball in USD, as they did before, but now the Blue Jays also enjoy shared revenue from league TV rights, MLB Network, and MLB Advanced Media. (It's an internal transfer, but the dollars the Blue Jays get from Sportsnet are in Canadian dollars, for the record.)

Additionally, Rogers is a large publicly-traded corporation that holds U.S. dollars as well as long-term currency exchange forward contract agreements to hedge rate fluctuation risks. Plus, the fall of the loonie was not particularly sudden nor surprising. Both Rogers and the Blue Jays plan for these things, so I don't believe there would be a sudden pullback in the amount of money they are able (or willing) to spend on player payroll this year because of what has happened in the past three or four months.

There won't be an immediate effect, but will this affect the profit margin and spending ability for the ball club going forward? You betcha. But hopefully it will not get as bad as the early 2000s.

The Turf

Among Colby Rasmus's first comments upon signing with the Houston Astros was about the artificial turf at the Rogers Centre. Matt English noticed a little change in Rasmus's tune from last season:

I think the two statements don't really contradict each other, they can both be true.

Last Thursday at the Bisons' Hot Stove Luncheon, I spoke with Steve Tolleson about playing on the Rogers Centre's AstroTurf. He said that it takes some getting used to, especially the way the ball bounces in the outfield, but he views that as an added home field advantage for the Blue Jays. Opponents coming in, especially those from outside the American League East, would come out for early practice before every series while the Jays' defense already known most of the kinks, although he did mention that there are subtle but noticeable changes that happen every time the field is re-laid after the Argonauts play. He mentioned that even a filled-in dirt infield at the stadium--like the one found at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay--will feel different than dirt on a grass field.

The one big downside of the turf, which Tolleson believes causes most of his aches and pain, is actually not how hard the turf (and the concrete underneath) feels. He feels that the turf  "slides" a little whenever he steps down and pivots, kind of like an area rug on top of tile or hardwood flooring. The sliding causes stress on his ankles all the way up to his lower back.

Chad Jenkins, the other player at the event in Buffalo, chimed in to say that the turf affects pitchers too. He reminded me that even though pitchers spend much of the game standing on the mound, they do a lot of running and fly ball shagging before games. He mentions that the hardness is a problem for him, as he does feel more aches after running on turf than on grass.

It would be interesting to follow-up with the players after the 2015 season to see if the new turf improves things at all. The one good thing learned from this is the mentioned that the turf is beneficial for home defenders. I wonder if anyone has taken a look at the advanced fielding numbers from games at the Rogers Centre to see if there was a significant difference between home and visiting fielders (although there are probably too many confounding factors to get anything conclusive).


The most important home runs Brett Gardner hit in 2014

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Brett Gardner hit a lot of home runs in 2014. He not only managed to reach double digits for the first time, but actually doubled his previous career-high of eight by the end of the year. He might not be considered much of a traditional power hitter, but Gardner has some pop. Let's celebrate the barrage of power he showed by taking a look at his most important dingers of the year.

1. Grand Slam vs. Mets: 5/12 - 396 ft | .350 WPA

Going by Win Probability Added, the metric that determines how a play added or subtracted from a team's chances of winning, Brett Gardner's most important home run was his May grand slam against the Mets. Not only was it awesome because it was a grand slam, but at the time, the Yankees were losing in the second inning. Gardner came up big against Bartolo Colon, but there was plenty of game left and unfortunately Alfredo Aceves, Matt Thornton and Preston Claiborne managed to surrender five runs in three innings to bury the Yankees.

2. Off the Pole vs. Blue Jays: 6/17 - 331 feet | .204 WPA

Gardner hit this beautiful dinger off the right field foul pole to give the Yankees the lead in the early goings of the game. The Blue Jays had managed to score off Masahiro Tanaka with a leadoff home run from Jose Reyes, but the Yankee ace held off Toronto for the rest of his outing. This time they ended up holding the score in their favor and the Yankees won with Gardner's home run being the difference maker.

3. Late-Night Clutch vs. Red Sox: 8/03 - 420 feet | .169 WPA

The Yankees were down against the Red Sox going into the sixth inning, but Gardner came up big again by hitting his furthest home run of the season. Not only was it hit far, but it might have been one of the more well-timed ones of the year as it delivered New York the lead, and eventually victory.

4. #15,000 vs. Blue Jays: 9/21 - 355 feet | .151 WPA

Not only did Brett Gardner hit the first home run of the Yankees season, but six month later, with his last home run, he had the honor of smashing the franchise's 15,000th homer of all time. That's a pretty huge milestone, but definitely something you'd expect from a team nicknamed the Bronx Bombers. It was also pretty important to the 2014 Yankees since it gave them the lead for the rest of the afternoon.

5. Domination of Darvish vs. Rangers: 7/23 - 371 feet | .126 WPA

One of the more amusing story lines of the 2014 season was Brett Gardner's apparent utter domination of Yu Darvish at the plate. He managed to hit three dingers off the Rangers ace over the span of a week and it all culminated in Darvish hilariously blaming Gardner's parents for having him in the first place. This specific at-bat gave the Yankees the lead for the rest of the game and you can see that Darvish knew what was coming immediately.

Those were some impressive Gardner dingers, but that's not all of them. While some might not have had as profound of an effect on the game as the ones above, they still looked pretty cool.

He hit two second-deck shots at Yankee Stadium:

7/02 - 384 feet | .104 WPA

6/05 - 377 feet | .121 WPA

He also hit four home runs to lead off a game this year, this one just happened to tie his furthest home run of the season.

7/29 - 420 feet | .102 WPA

Gardner ended up with the third-most home runs on the team, though that might not be much of a good thing, especially when Brian McCann and Mark Teixeira could only manage 23 and 22, respectively. Still, in a year filled with disappointments and under-performers, Brett Gardner was a nice highlight reel for a power-sapped Yankees team. Can he do it again in 2015?

Paul Beeston to stay for 2015 season, probably

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The whole sad saga is over, for the moment, maybe.

This morning, the lovely Mr. Shi Davidi told us that MLB has suggested to the Blue Jays and the Orioles that they resolve this whole Dan Duquette drama swiftly. This afternoon the equally lovely Bob McCown tells us that Paul Beeston will see out the season as team president and be replaced after the season.

This whole thing seems to have been handled as poorly as humanly possible. If this is an example of how things are going to go under the leadership of Edward Rogers III, it might be time to sell your Rogers stock. I can't imagine how Edward thought that he could go around trying to recruit the someone to take Beeston's place without news of it getting back to Paul. It seems like Edward hasn't inherited any of his father's business savvy. I guess we knew that before this mess, but it underlines it nicely.

Beeston does deserve better. The celebrated first Blue Jays employee, quickly moving up to executive vice president and then president and COO in 1989, in time to help build our World Series winning teams. Then after leaving for a few years to work in the MLB's front office, he came back to the Jays and has increased attendance and interest in the team (unfortunately not getting us back in the playoffs, maybe this year). You would think that a guy on the Jays' Level of Excellence would be treated with a bit more honestly by his team.

What's in Edward's mind, I have no idea really. I'm guessing that it would be tough for him to make a big splash in any other area of the Rogers Corp world, so instead he decided to make his name with the Blue Jays. Hire a new president, then, likely, raise the team's budget and look like a genius when we make the playoffs. I don't know why he's fixated on Dan Duquette, maybe it's just that the other candidates turned him down flat and Duquette was the only one that seemed to be interested in the job.

Now, if I was going to give some advice to the Orioles, since we've been through much the same thing with Farrell, I'd tell them that if Duquette wants to leave and work with the Blue Jays, let him go. The last thing you want is to keep a guy around that wants to work for someone else. If we could do it all over again, we'd happily send Farrell out on a rail the first time he suggested he'd rather be with the Red Sox. Don't get worked up about compensation, take what you can get and be happy. The best compensation is to be rid of the guy that doesn't want to be there. Shi Davidi puts it best here:

But bigger picture, retaining Farrell - who wanted to return to Boston - was a mistake, and his desire to leave eroded the organization's faith in him and led to mistrust of him among players in the clubhouse during a difficult campaign.

You don't think that others in the Orioles front office are second guessing Duquette? It isn't like the Orioles have made a bunch of moves this winter.You would have to imagine there is some whispering behind his back. As much as I don't know why Edward is focused on Duquette, as if there isn't anyone in each in the world that could do the job, I don't know why the Orioles can't quickly come to the understanding that someone that is totally invested in their team wouldn't be a better choice for GM than someone who is looking to work somewhere else. If I was the Orioles, I'd stop thinking that I was going to get a top prospect out of the Jays, and just try to get this over with as fast as possible. The longer it goes on, the worse it will be for the Orioles.

Anyway, I hope that Rogers makes a definitive statement on Beeston's status, not that that would really slow down the rumors. The first thing I thought when I saw that McCown said Beeston will be here for the season was that Paul is likely cleaning out his office now.

Minor leaguers will be allowed to play in Toronto Pan Am Games

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Players who are not on a major league club's 40-man roster will be allowed to play men's baseball in the 2015 Toronto Pan American Gamesaccording to a report from FOX Sports' Jon Morosi. Morosi was told by his sources that Major League Baseball has decided to allow those minor leaguers to represent their respective countries if they are Canadian, American, Nicaraguan, Dominican, or Puerto Rican.

The Cuban national team has also qualified but they have not historically welcomed defectors to join the roster--although who knows what is possible with their relations with the United States thawing?

One more country from South America, most likely Venezuela, is seeking to qualify as the seventh team in the Games.

The games themselves will be played east of Toronto in the suburban town of Ajax, in the President's Choice Ajax Pan Am Ballpark, which will have four diamonds arranged in a pinwheel fashion plus a fifth field off to the side which will be built to International Baseball Federation standards. The venue will be accessible by shuttle bus, which will run between the ballpark and the Ajax GO Station. After the game be sure to leave right away because there is nothing around that area except for fields and subdivisions.

Men's and women's baseball will be played in Ajax from Saturday, July 11 through the last day of the Games on Sunday, July 26. Tickets for individual preliminary games are $20, tickets for medal games are $35 each, half price for youth under 16, and seniors 65 and over.

Team Canada won the gold medal in men's baseball in the 2011 Pan Am Games. Members of Team Canada in 2011 include former and current Blue JaysAndrew Albers, Michael Crouse, Shawn Hill, Marcus Knecht, and Scott Richmond.

Baseball was removed as a sport in the Olympics after the 2008 Beijing games because the people who run the Olympics are horrible.

Thursday Morning Sporcle: Canadian Blue Jays

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With the news that Torontonians may get to see Blue Jays minor leaguers represent Team Canada in the upcoming Pan Am Games, let's think back and recall all the Canadian-born players who have played for Toronto for at least one regular season game in their career.

Just click the green "Play" button below and start entering the players' last names (it's not asking for your name, OK?).

Show off your score in the comments below. When discussing possible answers be sure to black them out with the "Spoiler Text" function (click the rightmost icon between "Message" and the text box in the comments, or hit Ctrl-F when typing).

Past Thursday Morning Sporcle games:

Building the Ultimate Pitcher from the current Blue Jays staff

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Due to the lack of real news out of Blue Jays land for quite some time, it's the perfect opportunity to start using our imaginations to make our own fun. Something that I don't think has ever been done around here is combining the skills of the Blue Jays pitching staff to create the ultimate shutdown pitcher. As most of us know, the team's throwers bring a variety of unique skills to the table that could be combined to create a pretty fantastic pitcher. For the purpose of this exercise we'll assume the repertoire of this Frankenstein includes a four-seamer and sinker as well as a slider, curveball and changeup. Obviously there is no competition for the knuckleball position so we'll just hand that one to R.A. Dickey right now.

Four-Seam Fastball- Aaron Sanchez

Before breaking onto the major league scene at the end of the 2014 season, all the talk about Sanchez focused in on his nasty fastball and impressive curveball. His time in Toronto did nothing to dispel the notion that the righty could throw serious heat, especially in limited innings from the bullpen. There's not a large amount of difference between his sinker and fastball as they both hit north of 96 mph on the radar gun with arm-side run. On many teams his sinker would also be used for this ultimate pitcher, but fortunately for Blue Jays fans there's someone with an even better one.

Sinker- Marcus Stroman

By now most people have fallen in love with Stroman's sinker as it features a ridiculous amount of arm-side movement that makes hitters look foolish. When he first came up to Toronto he almost exclusively threw the four-seamer, but as he became comfortable with the sinker his usage rate nearly flipped. As pointed out in a recent piece over at FanGraphs, in late July he started to prefer throwing the sinker over the straighter fastball and never looked back for the rest of the season.

Stroman sinker

He just edged out his rookie partner Sanchez when it comes to PITCHf/x runs above average per 100 pitches for his sinker compiling a 2.93 versus a 2.87 number for the latter. If Stroman can keep this up in 2015, who knows where his ceiling is (hint: probably higher than the Canadian economy).

StromanStroman via Reddit

Slider- Drew Hutchison

When the young righty was making his way up through the minor leagues, Drew Hutchison's slider was considered to be a plus secondary offering along with his changeup. During his relatively short time in the Major Leagues, the slider has become the clear number two pitch although it likely still has even more room to improve. Since Stroman's pitch is considered a cutter most of the time and Casey Janssen definitely isn't on this team anymore, Hutchison essentially gets his slider used on this project by default. If a pitch can make Nick Swisher look like this though, then it almost certainly needs to be included.

Hutchison

via FanGraphs

Curveball- Brett Cecil

The pitch that essentially saved Brett Cecil's career and turned him into an All-Star reliever definitely deserves to be given to this ultimate pitcher. A story of redemption will give this emotionless robot a bit of a sentimental backstory, which will help him become a fan favourite on a team whose fans love an underdog. All Blue Jays followers know the tale of Brett Cecil being a not-very-good starter and then becoming a two-pitch reliever that strikes out anyone willing to try and hit his curve. According to FanGraphs, the pitch was easily the best curveball used by a reliever in 2014 and even held it's own against Jose Fernandez and Clayton Kershaw when factoring in starting pitchers. It's just so beautiful.

Cecil curve

via GAMEREAX

Changeup- Mark Buehrle

This selection isn't close either, as Buehrle has featured one of the best changeups in the league for years. It's likely in large part due to the fact that his fastball feels like a changeup to most hitters and his actual changeup doesn't appear to actually have any velocity at all. He's thrown the pitch over 20% of the time in each season since 2010 and it's been a nice little weapon for the southpaw. Although he doesn't strike a ton of people out, there's a good chance that if he does, it probably came off the changeup. It's best to not even attempt to find a GIF of a Buehrle changeup because there's a not insignificant chance that it could actually be his cutter or fastball or maybe even an eephus.

Swag- Marcus Stroman

By this point, our robot Blue Jays pitcher is pretty good at baseball but oftentimes that isn't enough to put butts in seats. A little pizazz can go a long way to making a new fan favourite, which is what the swag of Marcus Stroman does. Even before the Duke product came up to the Major Leagues, people knew all about his #HDMH hashtag and his love for style and haircuts. While some people prefer their major league players to be quiet, plain figures, the younger generation seems to relate much more to players who showcase their personality regardless of what people think.

Wisdom- R.A. Dickey

While it's good to have players who are energetic and flashy, it's also good to have some veteran wisdom in a pitcher and that's what R.A. Dickey provides. Although there's rumours that literally no one in the Blue Jays clubhouse can relate to him, it's no secret that Dickey is a smart and thoughtful man who has been through a lot in his life. When this pitching robot hits some tough times, the wisdom instilled in it by R.A. Dickey will guide it back to success with a variety of anecdotes that no one quite understands.

Dickey

via LifeReimaginedProject

There you have it folks, the ultimate pitcher made up of a variety of parts from the Blue Jays staff. I'm sure some of you have your own suggestions (serious or otherwise) that you want to make so let us know in the comments what's missing from this Frankenstein of a pitcher. Special thanks to Minor Leaguer for the amazing Photoshop job for this piece.

Orioles, Blue Jays have discussed "significant" names for Dan Duquette

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No, the saga of Dan Duquette possibly leaving the Orioles for the Blue Jays hasn't been put to bed yet. The latest twist is that the teams have discussed "significant" prospect names, including 2014 #9 overall pick Jeff Hoffman.

The phrase that comes to mind when thinking about the ongoing Dan Duquette saga is "sh-- or get off the pot." The Blue Jays continuing pursuit of the Orioles GM needs to either be resolved or put to bed. It seems that the situation remains in flux, despite the strongly-worded statements made by O's owner Peter Angelos. Conflicting reports continue to emerge, sometimes within the span of the same day.

On Wednesday, a Toronto radio station reported that Jays CEO Paul Beeston, whose job the Jays are trying to get Duquette to usurp, would be staying on for the 2015 season. On its face, this is not an unreasonable thing to have happen, given that it's now January 22. Opening Day is a little more than two months away. You can't have one team trying to hire away another team's GM right as a season is about to get underway. That is bonkers. And yet this absurd theater plays on.

That sounds like things are pretty well shut down, but then Jim Bowden emerged from wherever to tweet about "unconfirmed information" that a deal is "getting close." Everything you need to know about whether to take Bowden seriously as a reporter of rumors is contained within this story. Why even report unconfirmed information? Isn't it kind of the point to confirm it? Maybe Ralph told him about it.

ESPN's Buster Olney adds that if they make a deal, the compensation will be "substantial." This gives the impression that Angelos' public remarks are really just to drive up the price. Is that the case? The Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly doesn't think so, or at least he didn't think so a few days ago. He adds today that the O's and Jays have discussed "significant" names, which could change the situation.

A name Olney attached to the discussion is a top Jays pitching prospect, Jeff Hoffman, who was the #9 overall pick in the draft last year. At one time, he was believed to possibly be top 5 material, but he had to get Tommy John surgery about a month before the draft. That cost him, but not too much, as he still came in the top ten. Hoffman, 22, is a righty who rates as either the third or fourth best Jays prospect, depending on which list you consult. MLB.com even rated Hoffman in its top 100 prospects at season's end, coming in at #90.

Though the Tommy John creates some risk, Hoffman is said to have high upside. Baseball Prospectus and other parts of the prospect-industrial complex consider him to have future #2 starter potential. Of course, just because Hoffman has been "discussed" doesn't mean he'll be included in any deal, but it is one interesting name to drool over and is a heck of a lot better than some junk prospect.

Also, as a 2014 draftee, Hoffman couldn't even be traded except as a player to be named later for several more months.

One other thing to dribble out today comes from MASN's Roch Kubatko, who reports that the Orioles filing tampering charges against the Blue Jays has been "discussed." MASN, you might recall, is 85% owned by the Orioles, so we probably don't have to look very far to get the source of that rumor.

Of course, the person who is ultimately in charge of ruling on a complex issue like tampering happens to be prominently involved in a lawsuit presently being pressed by that same television network. That would be incoming commissioner Rob Manfred. Don't hold your breath for anything more than a slap on the wrist to come out of that.

So in summary, the Duquette to Toronto deal isn't happening, except they're still talking about it so it might be happening, and if it does happen the names could be significant but might not be all that significant because who knows with prospects anyway. And while all of this is going on, Duquette is just supposed to keep on keeping on as the Orioles GM.

Oh, and if Duquette does leave he'll probably be replaced by some terrible retread.

Glad we've got all that sorted out.

2015 Sleeper Series: Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown

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Ray profiles Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown, who disappointed fantasy owners in 2014. He needs to bounce back in 2015 to remain a regular at the big league level.

Today, I continue the series where I profile some fantasy baseball sleepers that could help you win your leagues in 2015. Every year, fantasy owners are looking for that late round hitter/pitcher who could help them deal with underperformance from an early round pick, or with an unexpected injury. Some will be busts, some will help you along the way.

I like to define a sleeper as a player who is one of the lower ranked players in standard leagues who could come out of nowhere to outperform their preseason ranking/value. Last season, we saw plenty of players come out of nowhere to help fantasy teams including Charlie BlackmonDee GordonSteve PearceCarlos Carrasco, among many others.

I will begin with the American League East division teams, in order of the 2014 standings, and proceed with the AL Central, AL West and so on.

You can find links to my other sleepers below:

2015 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Domonic Brown

Brown was once the prospect that Ruben Amaro Jr. (or was it Pat Gillick?) wouldn't include in the Roy Halladay trade with the Toronto Blue Jays. Two seasons ago, Brown put up a solid season for his fantasy owners, hitting .272-.324-.494 with 27 home runs, 65 runs scored, 83 RBI and 8 stolen bases in 540 plate appearances. Last seasons, he slumped in a big way, hitting just .235-.285-.349 with 10 home runs, 47 runs scored, 63 RBI and 7 stolen bases in 512 plate appearances.

Part of the reason for the drop in his numbers was he was a bit unlucky, with his batting average of balls in play dropping from .287 to .269, a small change, but a drop nonetheless. He also hit more balls on the ground  and less line drives and fly balls. A concern for me is that his HR/FB% dropped from 19.3% to 7.9% last season, which makes me wonder if his 27 home run output in 2013 was a one year fluke.

Time will tell, but the Phillies are doing something about his disappointing 2014 season, as they have brought back former manager Charlie Manuel to help the Phillies young hitters work on their approach at the plate, and Brown is at the top of his list of hitters to focus on this spring.

Manuel is one of the best hitting coaches in the game, so there is a good chance he can make meaningful changes in Brown's swing and approach. Some say that spring training stats are worthless, but in Brown's case, if we see him hitting and hitting for power in spring training, we could very well see a bounce back season from Brown in 2015.

What can we expect from Brown in 2015? I could see him duplicating his 2013 season stats. Maybe not 27 home runs, but I could see a 20+ home run, 80+ RBI season from him.


Friday Bird Droppings

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Will the Duq' drama conclude before the weekend?

School of Roch: Daily dose of Duquette and wondering who will be most overhyped
In which Roch somewhat bemoans the Duq's tinkering at the edges approach.

School of Roch: Second dose of Duquette
Active day on the Duq' drama front after Buster Olney name dropped a high-profile Blue Jays prospect as having been discussed as possible compensation.

Blue Jays won't trade for GM Dan Duquette, but Rogers might - Toronto Sun
The view from our friends up north

The 17th greatest GM of all time was unemployed for a decade | HardballTalk
And he may soon be trading crab cakes for canadian bacon.

Baseball Prospectus | Pitching Backward: The Cost of Being on Baseball's Bad Side

Subscriber article looking at what Baltimore lost out on when MLB ignobly passed them up when awarding the 2016 All Star Game.

Finding a Place for James Shields | FanGraphs Baseball

Jeff Sullivan ponders who would benefit the most from adding James Shields to their rotation. Do the O's make the list? (Hint: I wouldn't have linked this if they weren't mentioned)

Camden Depot: How the Orioles Broke FIP

With magic. Orioles Magic.

Steve Melewski: After strong second half, will Lough earn bigger role in 2015?
The defense will always get him playing time, but he'll have to hit better if he wants more plate appearances.

Happy Birthday to Cord Phelps and Sherman Obando. On this date in 2010 Miguel Tejada was brought back into the fold for a season. In 2012 the O's signed Wilson Betemit.

Jeff Hoffman for Dan Duquette?

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In case you were not on Twitter last night.

So, I took a trip through LinkedIn last night, perhaps after a few drinks (no, I don't have a drinking PROBLEM, whit79)...

I cope by finding the jokes in this situation.

Ed Rogers, the Oriole

Did you know that Ed Rogers once played for the Orioles? Isn't this kind of a conflict of interest??

Eddie Rogers

Does he look familiar? Well he should--he is Esmil Rogers' older brother (really).

Latest Dan Duquette readings

  • From Richard Griffin (former PR guy for the Expos, hey, that fact is actually relevant with this story!): "...if [Duquette] stayed [in Montreal after being pursued by Boston] his heart may not be in it and he would not be able to do the job to the best of his abilities."
  • From Andrew Stoeten: "But what’s there to even say anymore, really? Don’t do this? Stop? Stop saying this? This is stupid? Stop doing this dumb thing? Seriously, don’t? Even you can’t possibly be this dumb? Why isn’t this stopping? Just stop? Even Richard Griffin is telling you to pack it in? Like… [frig]? Honestly, STOP?"
  • From Shi Davidi: "Such a hefty package would not only defy, but totally obliterate previous precedents in compensation packages for managers or executives under contract changing clubs."
  • From Bob Elliott: "...Beeston boarded a flight to Vancouver to carry out his presidential duties at a Vancouver Canadians function on Friday. Beeston had best hope he had a round-trip ticket from Rogers before boarding."
Follow Friday

  • @EdwardSRogers: Not verified but I am 92% sure this is Edward Rogers III's personal Twitter account.
  • @rogerrai1: Again not verified but I am 99.4% sure this is Roger Rai's actual Twitter account. Rai, if you recall is Ed Rogers' good buddy and Rogers' "sports consultant. Roger and Rogers went to meet the Yankees' president to ask them who the Blue Jays should hire as their next president. So this whole Dan Duquette thing could just be a way for the Yankees to mess up two of their division rivals.
  • Cool fact: Roger Rai follows 603 accounts. He follows Andrew StoetenDan DuquetteTom DakersTao of Stieb, and this parody account, but not yours truly. :-(
Bonus Friday Sporcle

Let’s be optimistic about the Yankees' chances in 2015

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Just because they’re not a juggernaut does not mean it should be all doom and gloom when looking forward to next season

With the Yankees presumably done making major additions for next season–they're almost certainly out on James Shields, the last remaining big free agent–it's time to think about how this team shapes up against the rest of the AL East. Alright, maybe it's a little early, but still, it's the offseason. Let's be positive.

Here's why we should all be optimistic about the Yankees chances next season:

1)   There's no clear favorite in the AL East

While the Blue Jays and Red Sox made several moves in the offseason, each team in the division still has a lot of question marks. Can Boston overcome the loss of their ace? Will Toronto's pitching improve after a lackluster 2014? Will Baltimore's young pitching staff come back down to Earth after overachieving last season? Can the Rays continue to surprise and be competitive, even without Joe Maddon and Andrew Friedman? While the Yankees have plenty of questions of their own–potential injuries to pitchers come to mind (furiously knocking on wood)–each of these five teams has some major flaws on paper, meaning the division is wide open.

2)   The rotation has a chance to be really, really good

Speaking of the rotation, while there are injury concerns, there is also a lot of potential for it to be one of the best staffs in recent memory. Masahiro Tanaka was lights out last season before his injury, and in his 76 innings, Michael Pineda posted a 1.89 ERA. Nathan Eovaldi had a solid 3.37 FIP in 2014 along with 3.0 fWAR. If CC Sabathia can make some improvements over his last year, and Chris Capuano can hold down the fort until Ivan Nova gets back, this could end up being the one dominant rotation of the division.

3)   The defense will be so much better

Last season, the Yankees infield included Yangervis Solarte, Derek Jeter, and Brian Roberts. This season, they'll start Chase Headley, Didi Gregorius, and Stephen Drew. Headley and Gregorius offer a major upgrade, and while Drew might not offer much overall, he's better than the corpse of Roberts. Putting this group in front of an outfield patrolled by Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury will give the Yankees a squad that's much better with the glove than the 2014 edition.

4)   This bullpen is still one of the best in the game

Dellin Betances was second among Yankee pitchers in fWAR last season–he also struck out nearly everyone in sight, posting a 13.50 K/9. Andrew Miller (he of the 2.02 ERA and 1.51 FIP) should mitigate the loss of David Robertson. With plenty of live, young arms in the minors, the Yankees bullpen should once again be one of the best in the AL East. If the offense can produce, the Yankees will have the arms to hold a lead.

While offense will be an issue for the Yankees this season, we can even be optimistic about Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, and Mark Teixeira bouncing back with the bat. I mean, they can't be worse (that's not a challenge, gentlemen, so please don't take it as one). Even with a lot of question marks, this Yankees team has a lot of talent. With a wide open AL East, if a few things break right, New York will definitely be in the hunt come September.

Hey, it's the offseason–let's be positive!

Do you think the Yankees have a good chance in 2015? Who are the biggest threats in the division? Sound off in the comments below!

Jays Musings: Duquette, Shields, Strasburg & More

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Anyone else getting bored of the offseason? Other than the odd waiver claim or minor league signing, it has been quite some time since the Blue Jays have made a significant move. Let's jazz things up a bit and discuss some of the recent rumours and potential targets around the league. Looking forward to hearing your opinions in the comments.

1) Let's put an end to the Jeff Hoffman for Dan Duquette rumour. I just can't see it happening. The Orioles can tell the media what they want, but this level of compensation simply just does not happen. It was rumoured that the Jays wanted Clay Buchholz for John Farrell, while the Red Sox reportedly asked for Matt Garza or Starlin Castro in return for Theo Epstein. How did that work out?

In my opinion, the Jays have the leverage here. Paul Beeston seems willing to remain in his role for the 2015 season, meaning there is probably no rush to find a team president. It seems like the Orioles cannot allow Duquette to make any major moves until this situation is resolved. Denying their general manager from a promotion before giving him the keys to run the team might not be the best idea. In the end, I expect Duquette to join the Blue Jays, but I can't see Jeff Hoffman being involved.

2) It may very well be the best time to trade Aaron Sanchez. The majority of prospect evaluators seem to rank him as a top prospect (A- grade from John Sickels), but whether or not he can become a MLB starter remains a huge question mark. How he is ranked ahead of Dalton Pompey on some lists is beyond me. Sanchez's walk totals have been a problem throughout his minor league career and he does not exactly pile up the strikeouts either. If he does join the Jays bullpen for 2015, it will be tough for him to substantially work on his third pitch and control. If the same question marks remain in 2016 when he is entering his age-24 season, I'm not sure his trade value will be this high. If the Jays do make a major trade, I expect Sanchez's name to be involved before Norris or Pompey are included.

3) Both Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann have been the subject of trade rumours after the Nationals signed Max Scherzer. While both players are terrific pitchers, I just don't see a trade for either player making sense for the Jays. Jordan Zimmermann has been worth more than 4 WAR only once in his career. For just one year of him, I wouldn't be giving up Sanchez, Norris, or Pompey. I just can't get behind paying a haul for just one year of him.

I don't see the Jays "stealing" Strasburg either. Given his pedigree and numbers, I can't see him being traded for anything close to a bargain. If the Jays are going to give up a substantial package for a star player, I'd be aiming for a player with more control. Taking a major run at Tulowitzki makes much more sense to me, though I wouldn't count on that happening anytime soon. Daniel Norris' 2014 minor league numbers are pretty similar to Yu Darvish's career numbers in the majors. He's quite the prospect and should solidify the rotation sooner rather than later. A trade for a starting pitcher is just not worth an overpay for me, though it would be nice to add depth.

4) I really have no idea where James Shields will end up. There just does not appear to be a clear fit out there. The Jays already have Mark Buehrle and R.A Dickey to "eat innings", which seems to be Shields' best attribute. He has yet to pitch his home games in a homer-friendly park, yet fly balls have left the yard quite often over his career. His xFIP over the last 2 seasons is 3.64 and he will be 33 next season. Unless his price has dropped significantly, I'd be wary of paying him significant money for his decline years.

5) The market for Dioner Navarro appears be be shrinking pretty quickly. The White Sox just signed Geovany Soto but could still be potential trade partners. I wonder if the Tigers or Mariners could make some sense. The Diamondbacks seem like a great fit, so maybe that will happen after all. Navarro's pitch framing skills could hurt his value, but more importantly I hope the Jays play Russell Martin as much as possible. There is probably better ways to spend five million dollars.

6) As I said in a previous post, it would be great to add some CF depth by adding Will Venable or Cameron Maybin from the Padres. As much as I love Dalton Pompey, the Jays could probably benefit from a strong Plan B. I would love to know the price for Jarrod Dyson. If Pompey struggles or gets injured, I wouldn't count on Pillar or Carrera for a significant amount of time.

7) Daniel Murphy makes quite a lot of sense for the Blue Jays. Despite grading out as a weak defender at second base, he would represent a huge upgrade up the middle. The Mets have Dilson Herrera to man 2B for the longterm, while Daniel Murphy is a free agent after this season. He would help balance the Jays surplus of right handed hitters in their lineup. It would be great to get some production out of second base.

Cliff Pennington, Mark Ellis and Brian Dozier also make some sense to me. If the Mariners acquire Allen Craig or Shane Victorino from Boston, Dustin Ackley could make a lot of sense as well. I can't see Everth Cabrera or Rickie Weeks happening.

8) I still expect the Jays to add a late inning reliever. K-Rod, Janssen and Soriano are still free agents but I wouldn't be surprised if AA takes the trade route. He seems hesitant to spend a significant amount money on the bullpen, which leads me to think he could pull off an unexpected trade. The Padres have quite the surplus in the bullpen, so maybe Nick Vincent is a potential option. Glen Perkins maybe? I'm expecting the unexpected here.

Anyways, that's it for me. Curious to see what everyone else thinks of all these potential options. Look forward to hearing from everyone, as always.

Blue Jays have broken off their pursuit of Orioles GM Dan Duquette

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A report from Toronto on Sunday says that the Blue Jays have broken off their pursuit of the Orioles' Dan Duquette. Despite all the angst about this over the last month, it seems a deal was never all that close or likely after all.

The long, winding, occasionally contradictory saga of Dan Duquette's potential exportation to Canada is finally over, at least for now. This may actually be the final answer, with a report coming out from Toronto that the Blue Jayshave ended negotiations with the Orioles. That's according to one of the regular Blue Jays beat writers, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca.

It's news of a sort that there were negotiations at all, given Orioles owner Peter Angelos coming out and making the full-throated declaration that there would not be any chance of Duquette going anywhere. But it seems there was a chance after all, if the Jays would have been willing to part with the previously-suggested Jeff Hoffman "and two other top prospects."

That is a king's ransom when you consider that these sorts of trades are usually minor deals, but most of the time if a coach or executive is changing teams in a trade, it's not right on the heels of winning the division, to a divisional rival, when the executive has four years remaining on his contract.

If you suspected all along that the back and forth was pointless, blown out of proportion by a bored media either dying to make heat out of thin air or grind an axe against the Orioles owner/franchise, these two paragraphs from Davidi are for you:

The Blue Jays are believed to have been willing to offer a package of minor leaguers similar to past precedents - think fringe right-hander Chris Carpenter going from the Chicago Cubs to the Boston Red Sox for Theo Epstein ...

It's believed that at no point did the Blue Jays put forth any names for consideration.

Well, that was a goddamn waste of time and energy for the last month and a half. I'm just going to throw out there a radical concept: If you really, really want a baseball executive but you don't even put forth an offer or attempt to negotiate for him, maybe you didn't really want him after all.

Kinda gives some support to the notion that all of this was just some grand scheme to wreck the harmony in the Orioles organization.

Though all of this seems to the outsider to be about as blatant of a case as tampering as could be possible, MASN's Roch Kubatko wrote on his blog earlier Sunday that the chances of a tampering charge sticking to the Jays were "slim to none."

Of course, as of this morning, Rob Manfred, the person whom the Orioles believe presided over a rigged arbitration over MASN rights fees, is now baseball's Commissioner, meaning he would be the one to make such a decision. In the same vein as MLB thumbing its nose at Baltimore to give San Diego the 2016 All-Star Game rests this situation. Expect no favors from that quarter. Periodic antagonizing is not out of the question either.

There's also this:

Pardon me while I go slam my head into a wall repeatedly.

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