Spring training is getting closer (yay, it seems like this has been the longest of off-seasons, I would so much love to have actual baseball to talk about), so I thought we could start looking at the few spots where there is some question as to who will be filling them (talk about your awkward sentences, but let's leave it, you know what I meant).

In the outfield, barring injury or something else bad happening, we should be looking at an outfield of Michael Saunders, Dalton Pompey and Jose Bautista. I think we'll be happy with that group, though I'm hoping that Alex and Gibby can develop the patience to deal with a slow start from Pompey, if he has one. If he's got the job in center, leave him there for 200 or 300 at bats, instead of shipping him out if he has a bad week or two.

With the way the Jays like to overstock the bullpen and the strong possibility that we might have 3 catchers on the roster (in both cases I'm hoping not, but I've watched this team put together their roster for too long to expect they won't do the things that drive me crazy), I doubt there will be room for the 2 extra outfielders that I would perfer them to carry. Maybe we'll be lucky and they will have two extras outfielders, but, for the sake of this exercise, let's say they will only carry one extra. Who should they pick?

The candidates:

Kevin Pillar: Kevin has a leg up on the rest of the players fighting for the spot, he is the only on currently on the 40-man roster. Kevin can play pretty good defense in all three outfield spots. He's a right-handed bat, so he'd be a natural platoon for Saunders. His Streamer projected batting line is .266/.301/.398. There isn't much for power there, but you could do worse for a late game pinch hitter.

Ezequiel Carrera: Ezequiel was a signed a minor league contract and has a spring invite. He's a left-handed batter, he's had some MLB experience, he's played 176 games over the past four years. He's played all three outfield, mostly center field. He has some speed, 25 career steals, he could fill the Anthony Gose spot of late game pinch runner and defensive replacement. Career he has a .253/.305/.340 line. Steamer projects him to have a .256/.311/.349 line next year. UZR doesn't like his defense all that much, giving him a -2.4 UZR/150 over his 1058 career outfield innings.

Andy Dirks: Dirks was picked up off waivers from the Tigers, released and then signed as a minor league free agent, with a spring invite, saving the Jays a fair bit of money over what he would have been awarded in arbitration. He is another left-handed bat and he's played all three outfield spots in the majors, though not all that much in CF. In 297 games, over 3 seasons, he's hit .276/.332/.413. He does have a little bit of pop in his bat. Steamer thinks he only will get 1 at bat next season, but still figures he will have a .262/.321/.397 line (projection systems are strange).

Caleb Gindl: Caleb is another minor league free agent signing with a spring invite. He's a left-handed batter too. He's played a little less MLB ball than the others, 65 games, hitting .232/.335/.404. He's played all three outfield spots in the minors. Steamer has him hitting .234/.301/.370 this year. UZR doesn't think much of his defense, giving him a -10.5 for his 340 MLB innings.

The Jays also have invited Anthony Alford and Dwight Smith Jr. to their major league spring training camp, but that's more to give them a taste of what it is like, though, I could see Smith getting a call up later in the season.

There is a good chance they will find someone else to compete for the spot during spring training. There are always players released late in spring, but since we have no idea who might be available, let's just vote on these four.

We've had approve polls for Alex Anthopoulos, John Gibbons and even Buck and Pat, so I figured it was time to do an approval poll on ownership, the wonderful Rogers Corp.

I know I'm setting things up to hear a bunch about 'cheap' Rogers comments. I'm not really in the cheap Rogers camp. Every business has budgets. It is part of life. And the Jays have gone from $64.6 million in 2011, to $82.3 million in 2012, to $124.5 million in 2013 and then $136.4 million last year. To me, that's a pretty huge jump. I'm ok with the payroll at that level. I have more problems with how the money was spent than how much is being spent.

Attendance has come up some too, from 1.5 million in 2010 to 2.5 million in 2013, dropping a bit (2.37 million in 2014). I'm sure Rogers isn't losing a ton of money on the Jays.

I get the occasional email telling me that Rogers should sell to someone that would 'run the Jays properly'. Since there aren't a lot of folks sitting around with $600 million of spare change that they would like to put into a team, and then a bunch more to bring payroll up to the level that fans would like. And, since the Jays are worth more to Rogers than the book value, since they give Sportsnet a lot of content.

Of course, if the blundering of the Duquette/Beeston saga is an example of how things are going to go with Edward Rogers at that I might not be so understanding of ownership's flaws.

And I am curious about Rogers' plan for real grass, or if they have a plan for real grass. I do wish they would be more transparent on their plans in that area. They have to know, or at least, they should know, by now, if it is a possibility or not. Why not tell us?

They could make some upgrades at Rogers Centre, but then, as much as I can complain about the place, you couldn't ask for a better location for the park.

It is hard for me to separate my feelings for ownership with the Jays won/loss record. If they make the playoffs, I'll think they are great owners. If they win the World Series...I'll gladly buy any product they come out with.

Colorado designated Aquino for assignment on Jan. 30 but was still able to get something of value in return for him.

The Colorado Rockies on Wednesday acquired relief pitcher Tyler Ybarra from the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for minor league starter Jayson Aquino, according to a team announcement.

Ybarra, 25, was drafted in the 43rd round of the 2008 MLB Draft and has steadily climbed the minor league ladder since then. He missed the 2010 season due to personal matters but has spent every other one of his pro campaigns at a different level, topping out at Double-A in 2014. Ybarra possesses a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, which has allowed him to strike out more than a batter per inning during his minor league career. He's also walked nearly five batters per nine innings, making him similar to Rockies reliever Rex Brothers in terms of performance.

Wednesday will no doubt prove to be an emotional day for Ybarra. In addition to the trade (and of much more importance than it), his daughter, Arianna, was scheduled to undergo open heart surgery. Here's hoping for the best for the Rockies organization's newest member and his family.

Aquino, 22, was designated for assignment last Friday to make room on the roster for David Hale, who was acquired by the Rockies along with Gus Schlosser in a trade with the Atlanta Braves. Aquino struggled to a 5.40 ERA in Modesto last season, a year after posting a 4.34 ERA for Tri-City and Asheville. Aquino hasn't handled tougher levels well during his pro career, although he did pitch admirably in a two-start sample size in Double-A at the end of 2014.

The Rockies' newest free agent acquisition says he is ready to tackle the challenge of Coors Field and be a mentor to younger members of the rotation.

New Rockies pitcher Kyle Krendrick eager to try and tame Coors Field - The Denver Post
Patrick Saunders talked with Kendrick about pitching at Coors Field, and the veteran righty sure seems to have the right attitude about it with this quote in the article.

"I want to put up zeroes obviously, but if in that ballpark, with that offense, if you give up three or four runs in seven or eight innings, a lot of time you are going to win,"

Rockies general manager Jeff Bridich also discussed Kendrick's addition, praising his past success in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Kendrick deal gives Rockies' rotation a veteran presence - Rockies.com
Thomas Harding also had a chance to speak with Kendrick, discussing the opportunity he has to mentor some of the Rockies younger pitchers like Tyler Matzek and Jordan Lyles. Kendrick said he learned to be a leader in Philadelphia from the veterans he played with, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee among them.

Rockies new GM Jeff Bridich makes some wise offseason moves - The Denver Post
Saunders also has a column praising Bridich for the moves he has made in his first offseason as Rockies general manager, specifically how he has bolstered both the starting rotation and bullpen. Sure, there have been no splashy deals, the Rockies have added depth in several key areas.

Rockies add lefty prospect Ybarra in deal with Jays - Rockies.com
Having designated lefty Jayson Aquino for assignment earlier in the week in wake of the trade for David Hale, the Rockies were able to work out a trade with Toronto to move Aquino to the Blue Jays for fellow left-handed pitcher Tyler Ybarra. You can find Purple Row's full coverage of the deal here.

Rockies Caravan: From Albuquerque to Scottsdale - Rockies Zingers
At Rockies Zingers, J.J. Buck has a recap of the Rockies Caravan's recent stop in Albuquerque, the home of the team's new AAA affiliate. Several Purple Row writers came across the region-wide tour as well, in Grand Junction and Salt Lake City.

Around MLB

'Back to the Future' writer: 'If this inspires the Cubs...God bless them' - ESPN.com
Released in 1989, the second part of the "Back to the Future" trilogy saw Marty McFly travel to 2015 and learn that the Cubs had finally won the World Series over a then-fictitious Miami team. Now, we know that prediction won't be completely accurate, seeing as the Marlins are in the National League, but it does seem to have given some Cubs fans, and even players, hope for the upcoming season.

Kris Bryant's One Offensive Question Mark - Fangraphs
Looks like it's all Cubs, all the time today as Jeff Sullivan takes at the look at what may be the lone flaw in top prospect Kris Bryant's offensive game. Spoiler alert, he strikes out a lot, like pretty much every other power hitter out there these days.

A quick recap of tonight's event.

Some quick notes from the Blue Jays State of the Franchise.

• In Paul Beeston's opening remarks, he said he was definitely leaving after the season and  said he'd go out a winner.
• There was a talk from Stephen R. Brooks about the digital ticketing. He said that people that want a paper ticket, for souvenir reasons, will be able to get one.
• Buck Martinez said the team will be running a fantasy camp in Dunedin.
• John Gibbons: "It's a better team than it was last year."
• Alex Anthopoulos: "I'm not worried about the 9th inning" with the bullpen.  He would like some more depth, but he figures the closer is on the roster now.
• Gibby: "Russell is going to get an opportunity" to catch Dickey.
• Beeston: "We have grass in mind" for Rogers Centre.
• Beeston: "There is a question about air currents" which are needed to grow grass.
• Beeston announced they have signed a contract with the University of Guelph to study the idea of grass.
• Alex: "We have a strong desire"....to keep Bautista and Encarnacion "for life". Alex did make it clear that he would like to extend them beyond their current contracts and keep them with the team.
• Gibby: asked about whether Aaron Sanchez would start or relieve: "I want to see Sanchez as a starter". "He could be a great starter." "We'll have to see how things turn out in spring training."
• Beeston: "Payroll is definitely going up." "I'm satisfied that we have the resources needed". He did leave open the idea that they might hold back some money to make additions throughout the season.
• Gibby: Izturis, Goins, Tolleson, Travis and Kawasaki in the fight for second base in spring. When they put up a graphic with a 'projected batting order', Ryan Goins name was listed at second base, batting 9th.
• Gibby: 'Izturis is in the best shape of his life.'
• Alex: Asked when the deal to retain Melky 'turned sour'. 'We talked in August. We talked to him during the off-season. We thought Martin was a better fit.' "We loved him (Melky)". But that when they found they could deal for Saunders, that ended thoughts of keeping Melky.
• Paul: Asked if the Jays will be moving their spring home: "We hope we are staying in Dunedin." "We've been there since 1977." "The goal is to get a new facility, a new stadium."
• Gibby wants Shields. He teased Alex about it a couple of times.
• Gibby talked about Dioner Navarro playing DH.
• Alex compared Norris with Matt Harvey. 'Norris will be in the rotation at some point this year.' He said that the bone chips that he had removed after the season, caused him to not show what he could really do, when he was up with the team at the end of last season.
• Beeston: We'll have an All-Star game here "sooner rather than later." They are getting a proposal to host it ready for MLB right now.
• Beeston, in his closing comments said 'We are going to dedicate 2015 to winning.'

Danny Valencia is batting 1.000 when it comes to arbitration hearings. This morning we learned that the Valencia will be paid $1,675,000 this season for his services, a number the panel of arbitrators decided was more appropriate than the salary of $1,200,000 offered by the Blue Jays.

.@BlueJays Danny Valencia has been awarded $1.675 Million through arbitration.

— Blue Jays-Official (@BlueJays) February 6, 2015

If you have complaints about the ruling, send them to arbitrators James Oldham, Sylvia Skratek and Edna Francis (is anyone interested in an "Oldham& Skratek& Francis" ampersand t-shirt?)

Valencia becomes the first player to win in an arbitration hearing against the Blue Jays since Robbie Alomar got $1,250,000 awarded to him in 1991. Josh Donaldson is up next. Donaldson is asking for $5,750,000 and the Blue Jays are offering $4,300,000. Like Valencia's case, the arbitrators will pick one of the two figures for Donaldson's 2015 salary.

Now we will never write about Bill Risley ever again.

There will be a reunion of sorts at spring training this season as the Blue Jays have signed left-handed reliever Luis Perez to a minor league contract, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America. Perez, who is now 30, signed with the Jays as an amateur free agent at age 18, completing five years in the minor league system before making his major league debut in 2011.

He had a fairly decent season as a short reliever in 2012 before he was taken out from a July game against the White Sox with elbow tightness and soon after he joined the very long list of injured Blue Jays pitchers. Tom wants to note that he was not in attendance that game.

Perez got Tommy John surgery later that summer, which kept him from pitching until June 2013, when he had another setback during a minor league rehab appearance that put him back on the shelf for two more months. He ended up throwing a few big league games that season as a September call-up.

Late last spring, the out-of-options Perez was unconditionally released by the Blue Jays to make room for Matt Tuiasosopo, who was claimed on waivers. Perez then signed with the Braves as a minor league free agent, but he didn't end up throwing a pitch for that organization in 2014, possibly because he was still dealing with his elbow injury.

Eddy did not say whether Perez was extended an invitation to big league spring training, but one would assume that he would be.

The Blue Jays made another minor league signing yesterday, inking Canadian Johnny Stephens to a deal, according to Alexis Brudnicki.

#BlueJays add another Canuck to list of off-season acquisitions, signing 21-year-old John Stephens from Surrey, BC to minor-league contract.

— Alexis Brudnicki (@baseballexis) February 6, 2015

There isn't much information about him, except for this profile that showed that he was an outfielder four years ago. I wonder if our resident British Columbia pitcher knows anything about him. Kraemer_17?

Soon you can compulsively check the comments on Bluebird Banter without incurring data costs! Yay!

An oft-repeated joke around these parts is that the Rogers-owned Blue Jays should go find a big telecommunications company to get Wi-Fi installed at the Rogers-owned Rogers Centre. It looks like joke might become old soon as there are signs that Wi-Fi will be arriving to the dome for the 2015 season.

Bluebird Banterhas recently learned that an announcement regarding increased access to Wi-Fi at the Rogers Centre will be forthcoming.

During State of the Franchise event last Thursday evening, a password-free Wi-Fi network with the SSID "ROGERS WiFi Public"  was made available. Internet access was granted after connection, no additional sign-in step was required. According to a fan on Twitter, the network was already enabled back in mid-January for a monster truck show.

The home of the Blue Jays is one of the nine Major League Baseball stadiums that have yet to provide free public Wi-Fi to all fans in attendance (both the Jays and the Yankees provide free Wi-Fi in certain premium areas), according to a June 2014 study completed by Mobile Sports Report.

* The Royals were listed as "No" for the report but started to provide Wi-Fi at Kauffman Stadium in time for the postseason.

Although some sort of expanded Wi-Fi at Rogers Centre is coming, it is still not known whether the Rogers Centre Wi-Fi network will be accessible to all fans throughout the entire stadium. That had led to some speculation that the Wi-FI will be restricted to particular locations or that it will only be accessible to customers of Rogers' other entities.

What is known is that Major League Baseball is pushing the laggards to catch up and enable free internet access at their stadiums. MLB Advanced Media (MLBAM) is finally understanding that getting fans to post tweets, Vines, Instagrams and Facebook statuses talking about going to baseball games is a good way of getting free publicity that is targeted mainly towards the younger generation. Bob Bowman, the CEO of MLBAM, announced last October that his aim is to get Wi-Fi into all stadiums by Opening Day 2015.

It has also been reported that MLBAM "has some skin in the game," meaning that it is likely they are kicking in some amount of money to help encourage clubs to get this done.

The arrival of Wi-Fi at Rogers Centre should come hand-in-hand with the MLB.com Ballpark app north of the border. The smart phone app allows fans to store digital tickets, log the games they've been to, find concession stands, win prizes, share stuff on social media, and of course, receive advertisement. In select ballparks, you are even able to order food and drinks from the app and get it delivered to your seat! What a time to be alive.

Those who have visited an airport lately would already know that the availability of free Wi-Fi does not guarantee a stable, fast Internet connection. Fans may get a decent connection during April mid-week games, but staying connected may be a problem when 40,000 phones are trying to log on at once. Not all Wi-Fi-enabled stadiums have revealed the number of Wi-Fi access points they have installed, but it ranges from AT&T Park's 1,289 down to Marlins Park's 254. (Although, to be fair to the Marlins their access point-to-fan ratio is around the same as the Giants.)

Although the installation of Wi-Fi at Rogers Centre is happening 11 years after AT&T Park became the first park to give fans free connectivity, this is still good news for Blue Jays fans. As they say, better late than never.

Rays West

After much speculation last week that James Shields would indeed return home -- to his original home of San Diego --the deal appeals to be done. SB Nation's Chris Cotillo reported late last night that he'd chosen the Padres.

Shields was expected to sign with the Padres as recently as last Thursday, but a flurry of last minute phone calls and bidding attempts delayed his decision to the weekend. According to Cotillo, the deal is expected to be four years guaranteed at $18-19 million AAV, with a club option for a fifth season.

Sources: #Padres in agreement with James Shields on four-year deal. Includes club option for fifth season.

— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) February 9, 2015

Shields deal is pending a physical. Expected to be in $72-78 million range over four seasons. #Padres

— Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) February 9, 2015

It will be interesting to hear what contracts might have been offered elsewhere in the coming weeks. With neutral offers and neutral weather, a competitive offer from teams with reputations for cultivating young talent that could have surrounded Shields (Maddon's Cubs, Cardinals), or an opportunity to pull ahead in a weak division (AL Central) could have been more win-now focused moves, at least for our vantage point.

I believe Shields had three priorities, however, and not in any particular order that was to 1) compete for a title, 2) with a competitive contract, and 3) somewhere on the west coast. As far as we know, the Angels and Giants dropped out of the bidding for Shields earlier than this weekend, but that didn't count out Friedman's Dodgers -- and yet here we are.

Did he simply take the best contract? The best location? The best ballpark?

The Padres clearly wanted Shields, forgoing the 13th overall draft choice to sign him, and committing more to this one pitcher over the next four years than their opening day payroll had been in every season of franchise history, save 2014. The difference in adding Shields certainly edges the Padres in front of the Giants in the division, but it remains to be seen if this team can overcome the powerhouse Dodgers.

Shields will now be anchoring a staff that contains a slew of promising pitchers in (Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy, Tyson Ross) and three more recovering from injury (Josh Johnson, Cory Luebke, Brandon Morrow). Add in Odrisamer Despaigne, who started sixteen games for the Friars last season, and you have eight reasonable options for the rotations.

Best of luck in your home town, Juego G, and may that yakety sax outfield treat you kindly in your new cavernous ballpark.

Links

- Grant Balfour is set to be voted into Australia's baseball Hall of Fame, and his award has been fast tracked so his dad may be a part of the ceremony, due to a terminal battle with cancer.

- New manager Kevin Cash is promising more line up stability next season, according to Marc Topkin, rarely shifting guys more than one notch up or down in the line up.

"We've talked a lot about it with the front office, and they think the same way, too," Cash said. "Maybe it's a little different than what's gone on in the past, but that's our thought, that we're going to roll with this and we'll see if we can provide some stability and get some guys comfortable when they come to the ballpark, they know they're hitting in this slot, and see how that shakes out for a while."

- FOX and MLB are in talks that could result in nearly 40% of all streamed game broadcasts being Blackout Free

- The prospect staff at Baseball Prospectus ranked their Top 101 for 2015, including only two Rays: No. 66 Daniel Robertson, and No. 94 Willy Adames.

- The Toronto Blue Jays are paying $600,000 for the University of Guelph to conduct a year-long feasibility study into the prospects of growing turfgrass under the dome of the Rogers Centre. The Jays would also like the All-Star game to come across the border.

- Mike Petriello: James Shields can't solve the biggest Padres problem (hint: it's the infield - however, additions of a healthy Yonder Alonso and Will "don't give me chicken-pox" Middlebrooks could change that).

- Jeff Sullivan wonders what Coors Field does to pitch selection.

- Last week, Jonah Keri ranked the worst contracts in baseball, including plenty of Rangers, Yankees, and former Rays players.

- R.J. Anderson has an entertaining puzzle, free today on Baseball Prospectus, and it involves dissecting the match up of Jordan Zimmermann and Christian Yelich. Their most recent meeting produced one of the best highlight reels of 2015 for new Rays prospect Steven Souza Jr:

...but the previous 17 meetings, and Zimmermann's attempts to get the best of Yelich, are an interesting read. Play the game, share your answers below (no cheating), and let's see how close you get.

- Finally, in case you missed it, yesterday was DRaysBay's 10th Birthday, which we celebrated with a look back at the birth of the site as part of SB Nation's Original Six, and featured some well wishes from former managers and site luminaries. Scott followed with a look back at Baseball America's Top 10 prospects for 2005, and I highlighted the ten most popular articles in site history.

With the final big free agent signing in James Shields going to the San Diego Padres early this morning, the offseason circus has unofficially come to a close (although Mark Ellis is still on the market). There was a smidgen of hope that the Blue Jays would be in on Shields, but most people seemed realistic enough to concur that the team would probably bust out the chequebook on a relief pitcher before Shields became a legitimate target.

While the terms of the contract are not fully available, it's been reported that the deal is for four years worth a total of $75 million with an option year as well. For a pitcher that can be counted on to provide somewhere between 3.5-4.5 WAR each season, $18.5 million annually isn't too crazy at all. When you factor in the age issue (Shields recently turned 33-years-old) and the fact that he also requires a forfeited draft pick, the deal begins to seem just about fair value.

Since we're all Blue Jays fans, let's consider how this deal would have looked from our point of view. Obviously if the deal has no back-loading then the payroll would have shot up $18.5 million this year, which may have been a non-starter for the front office whether you like it or not. After the 2015 season though, the Blue Jays financial flexibility loosens up a bit with the departure of Mark Buehrle and his $20 million contract and possibly R.A. Dickey as well ($12 million option with $1 million buyout). On the flip side, Russell Martin's $7 million contract in 2015 nearly doubles next season so some payroll room would be eliminated.

As you can see below (ignore the Casey Janssen error), after the 2016 season the Blue Jays have very few contracts on their books and they won't have a ton of expensive arbitration-eligible players either.

via Sportrac.com

For all the talk of the Blue Jays having their hands tied financially, it's a bit of hyperbole. A slightly back-loaded contract wouldn't increase their $130ish million payroll annually that they currently seem to be hitting a glass ceiling with. After even the most basic of analysis, it really does beg the question of what has stopped the team this offseason from being more aggressive in their pursuit of upgrades.

At the State of the Franchise only a few days ago, the team seemed utterly unsure of how their rotation and bullpen was going to end up looking which makes you wonder why they decided to let some affordable contracts pass them by in the last few months. Looking for bargains has done wonders for the team in the recent past, but at some point it's going to take real money to bring proven talent up to Toronto. It's hardly fair to bring out the pitchforks against a front office that signed Russell Martin only a few months ago but without a supporting cast, this core of players could end their days in Toronto asking what could have been.

With the confusing handling of the budget in the past few years, it makes you wonder if the team is one losing season away from a complete rebuild, since it's certainly expensive to be just mediocre in the the MLB. Sure, James Shield wasn't a piece the Blue Jays HAD to have and maybe he didn't want to venture north of the border anyway, but if four years and $75 million was too high of a price to pay then how much money is there really left to be spent anyway.

Happy Birthday Dioner.

Jeff Blair had an interesting little bit, buried in a post mostly that's about the Leafs, with some stuff on Paul Beeston:

With Victor Martinez's availability for the start of the season in jeopardy, the Detroit Tigers have had discussions about acquiring switch-hitting Dioner Navarro from the Toronto Blue Jays, according to major league sources. Navarro, who hit .272 with eight home runs and 18 doubles as a left-handed bat for the Blue Jays, is considered the Blue Jays' top trade asset, but the team has signalled it won't move him unless it gets a pitcher in return.

So Happy Birthday Dioner. As a present, for turning 31, you get to be in today's Rumor of the Day.

The Jays have been talking about using Navarro as backup catcher/DH, but I'd rather have someone that could play first base and leave the DH spot to Edwin Encarnacion, if it were up to me. Though I would like someone better than Josh Thole to backup Russell Martin.

We figured Dioner would be a trade target when some team had a catcher go down with injury this spring, but for the Tigers he would be filling the DH spot.

I'm not sure that the Tigers would have a MLB ready pitcher that they would be willing to give up in trade. Maybe Buck Farmer, who had the same sort of 2014 as Daniel Norris, starting in A-ball and jumping through to Triple-A by season's end (though he didn't get a September callup). They aren't deep in the bullpen either, I wouldn't mind adding Al Alburquerque to the Jays pen, but I don't think that's likely.

In other news the Jays have made some 'minor league appointments. Former major league infielder, Mike Mordecai will take the job of Coordinator of Instruction for the minor league system. Aaron Mathews gets the job of hitting coach at Bluefield. Mathews was drafted by the Jays in 2004 and made it up to Vegas. He hit .281/.331/.409 in 791 minor league games. Danny Solano gets the job of Roving Infield Coach. He's been with the Jays, mostly coaching for the GCL Jays, since 2007. He played in the Jays system from 2002 to 2006.

The Jays also tell us that Fred McGriff has talking a consulting job with the Braves, after having been an 'adviser' with the Blue Jays the past 2 years.

The Blue Jays are rumored to want pitching in return for their 31-year-old catcher.

When Victor Martinez injured his left knee in 2012, Tigers president and GM Dave Dombrowski moved quickly to find his replacement. Less than two weeks after Martinez was diagnosed with a torn ACL, the Tigers signed then-free agent Prince Fielder to a nine year, $214 million contract.

This year, Dombrowski may be moving quickly again. According to Jeff Blair of SportsNet, the Tigers have expressed interest in trading for Dioner Navarro, a 31-year-old catcher from the Toronto Blue Jays. Navarro, who turned 31 today, hit .274/.317/.395 with 12 home runs and 69 RBI in 520 plate appearances for the Jays last season. However, the club signed Russell Martin to a five year, $82 million contract earlier this offseason, making Navarro an expendable trade asset.

Navarro started 102 games at catcher for the Blue Jays last season, and also made 19 appearances as the team's designated hitter. A career .255/.313/.375 batter, the switch-hitting Navarro has a .760 OPS in 859 plate appearances for the Cincinnati Reds, Chicago Cubs, and Blue Jays in the past three seasons. He is in the final season of a two-year contract and is owed $5 million in 2015.

Navarro's experience as a catcher could provide the Tigers a lot of flexibility if Victor Martinez is out for an extended period of time. However, he may be better served as a designated hitter. Navarro was one of the worst pitch framers in baseball last season, and has thrown out just 28 percent of attempted base stealers in his career.

Blair reports that the Blue Jays are interested in receiving a pitcher in return for Navarro, presumably one that could help them in 2015. The Tigers have a plethora of low-upside, high-floor arms in the high minors that could help the Blue Jays this season, though it remains to be seen if they are willing to part with any of their starting pitching depth.

It's time for our annual look at the Blue Jays top prospects.

Time to start on our Top 40 Prospects list. As always, the ones at the bottom of the list are not exactly great prospects but more like 'potential prospects'.

We made a couple of late changes: after putting together the list we decided that guys over the age of 25 really weren't prospects anymore. We made the cutoff players that will be under 26 on June 30th of this year. You have to figure that by 26-27, either guys are MLB players or they aren't really prospects. Not saying they might not get some playing time, but they really aren't guys that you project to improve.

MjwW will be up next with the numbers 31-35 on out list.

40. Chase Mallard: Chase is a 6'2" right-hander, our 14^th round pick from 2014, out of the University of Birmingham, where he had been mostly a reliever until senior year. He was "Conference-USA Pitcher of the Year" as a senior. He had a very good time of it in his first pro season, getting into 15 games, 10 starts, mostly for Vancouver after 3 games in Bluefield. He had a 2.73 ERA. In 62.2 innings he allowed 54 hits, 11 walks with 55 strikeouts. He is 23, so he is going to have to keep having good seasons to move up the system. He is more a potential prospect than an actual one at the moment, but if he has another year like last year's he'll be a prospect.

At draft time, Baseball America said:

Mallard is a true ace, a strike-throwing machine with an 88-92 fastball, a swing-and-miss slider and a good changeup. The senior was dependable out of the bullpen over the past three years, but he has really thrived this spring as a starter.

39. Tom Robson: Tom was number 19 on our list last year, but he drops down after having Tommy John surgery in July of this year. Apparently, recovery is going well, he's been soft tossing the last couple of months but won't be pitching in a game until June at best. He missed some time in 2012 with elbow issues and with the Tommy John this year, it's worrying, but then it seems like most players come back from Tommy John with no troubles.

Before the surgery, he was drawing a fair bit of attention. Keith Law had him at number 11 on his list of Blue Jays prospects before the season the 2014. On our list, he was 31st in 2012, then #33 in 2013 before jumping to #19 last year.

In 2013, he was throwing mid-90's, had a ‘plus' change and was working on a curve. He wasn't getting a lot of strikeouts (6.0 per 9 innings in 2013) but he was getting tons of ground balls, 3.48 ground balls per fly ball. He had a 1.12 ERA in 2013, in 64 innings, split between Bluefield and Vancouver. ERA's in the low 1's get your attention. This year, before the surgery, he made 8 starts, getting a 6.25 ERA, with 37 hits, 18 walks and 22 strikeouts in 32 innings, but it is tough to pitch with your elbow coming apart.

Tom is just 21, so the missed year isn't such a big deal, as long as he comes back healthy. He's a big right-hander, 6'4" and 210 and, of course, Canadian. He was our 4th round pick in the 2011 draft.

38. Grayson Huffman: Huffman was our 6th round pick in the 2014 draft, out of Grayson County College (how often do they name the school after a guy on their baseball team?). He's a 6'2" lefty pitcher, 19 years old. He had a nice start to his professional career, getting into 11 games, 10 starts, 3 for Bluefield and 8 for the Gulf Coast league Jays. He had a 0.95 ERA in 38 total innings, allowing 18 hits, 20 walks (too many walks, but then he has time to improve) with 34 strikeouts. He's a 6'2" lefty, throws low 90's, he has a curveball and changeup.

37. Matt Dean: Matt dropped several spots from his #26 showing on our list from last year. He's had an up and down life on our prospects lists, starting at 17th on our 2012 list, dropping to 34 in 2013, 26 in 2014 and now 37. Our 13th round pick in the 2011 draft is now 22. He had a nice season at Lansing, hitting 281/.332/.429, with 9 home runs, 27 walks and 117 strikeouts, in 113 games, but not as nice as the line he had in 2013, in Bluefield, where he hit .338/.390/.519. Last year the concern was the strikeouts, and, well, it is still the concern. His strikeout rate is virtually unchanged from last year, 24.1% after 24.5% in 2013. He played mostly first base, 64 games, with 16 at third base.

Dean had a terrific month of May, hitting .395/.439/.605, but the rest of the season wasn't as good. He had a better first half of the season, hitting .319/.365/.456, than second half, .256/.309/.410. Perhaps he tired in his first look at full season ball, though he slowed at the end of 2013 as well. Since he is a first baseman he'll only go as far as his bat will carry him and without much power, the best you can hope for is an Overbay type and I don't think his glove is that good. He's a big guy, 6'3" and 215, so there was hope that he'd develop some right-handed power, but he hasn't shown it yet...

36. Nick Wells: Nick was our 3rd round pick in the 2014 draft, drafted out of high school from Haymarket, Virginia. He is a big left-hander, 6'5" and throws low 90's while just 18. MLB.com had this scouting report at draft time:

Lefties with projectable frames and present stuff are always sought after in the Draft, which is why Wells is very appealing to many teams. Wells' fastball will sit in the low 90s, touching 93 mph, and he uses his tall frame to create good downhill plane. His curveball has very good shape with hard, late movement and has the chance to be a swing and miss pitch for him in the future. He hasn't thrown his changeup much at this point, but scouts who have seen it say it has the potential to be a solid pitch with good fade and deception. Wells may be somewhat raw at this point, but his interesting mix of pitches and big frame give him a high ceiling.

He didn't have the best of times in his first look at professional ball. He had a 5.71 ERA in 11 games, 4 starts for the Gulf Coast League Jays. In 34.2 innings, he allowed 44 hits, 11 walks with 18 strikeouts, but then he was just 18 (turns 19 on the 21st of this month), playing against older, more experienced guys.

Anthony Castrovince, at Sports on Earth, lists his top ten MLB lineups for 2015 and the Blue Jays place number 2! The only lineup he rates as better than our Jays is the Red Sox. This is what he had to say about the Jays

:2. Blue Jays: Were Dalton Pompey more established, Michael Saunders and Justin Smoak more reliable and second base not such a worry, I'd strongly consider the Blue Jays for the top spot on this list. Alas, those are, of course, all big questions.

Still, there is a lot to like about a lineup that begins with Jose Reyes, Russell Martin, Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion. Those are five steady on-base presences and a middle of the order that can straight-up mash.

There are big questions to be answered in Toronto, but you'd be hard-pressed to find (on paper, at least) a lineup with a better top five.

I'm kind of skeptical of lists like this, but I'm happy to think that we might be very good on offense. I'm hopeful that Saunders and Pompey have good seasons and I'm even thinking that Smoak might not be so bad in Rogers Centre. Second base does appear to be a black hole, but we can afford one poor spot in the lineup.

I wouldn't put them quite that high on the list, all will be good if everyone stays healthy, but when has that ever happened?  I'm hoping that the new turf is easier on the players than the old turf was, but I'm guessing we'll still have our fair share of aches and pains. If Reyes can stay off the DL and hit like he can, and if Gibby can find a good number 2 hitter, we should be already, offensively.

Over at Baseball Prospectus, they have their Top 101 MLB Prospects list up and there are 4 Blue Jays on the list:

#25: Aaron Sanchez

#34: Daniel Norris

#42 Dalton Pompey

#73 Jeff Hoffman.

About Hoffman they said:

The Year Ahead: Hoffman would easily challenge for consideration at the front of this system if healthy, but it's also reasonable to expect that had injury not struck, the 21-year-old right-hander would never have gotten to Toronto in the first place. The potential of the arsenal and what the overall future role can look like are loud. The arm was already showing strong advancement in the college ranks, suggesting that the ascent in the professional side could be on the quicker side. Of course, we have to consider the near-term hurdle of the injury rehab, combined with the fact that the arsenal must first return to form before taking any more steps forward, which was especially necessary in regards to the overall command. The likely view takes into consideration the risk and probability that the full picture of the stuff in the pro arena won't start to show until 2016. This season will focus on passing the early markers coming out of surgery, returning fully to the mound, and beginning to ramp the arm strength back up. Recent trends tell us there's a strong chance Hoffman can make a full return to form, with the organization's potential reward for taking on the risk and investment being a future front-of-the-rotation power arm for multiple seasons to come.

Is it bad to be thankful that he needed Tommy John?

MLB Trade Rumors looked at possible landing sites for Rickie Weeks and they list the Jays as one:

Blue Jays: Toronto's budgetary constraints are well known, but so is their dearth of usable options at second base. Maicer Izturis may see the bulk of time at the keystone in 2015, but he's a 34-year-old coming off significant knee surgery and being asked to play half his games on artificial turf. Ryan Goins provides an all-glove alternative, but certainly Weeks could give the Jays an option with considerably greater upside at the plate.

I don't see it happening. Week's defense at second base hasn't been good. Fangraphs had him at a -23.5 UZR/150 last year. And it is trending down, he was -18.0 in 2012 and -16.9 in 2013. I think I'd rather go with Travis.

And, if you wanted to see Vladimir Guerrero's kid, Bed Badler posted a Vine. And on his dad's 40th birthday.

Ladies and gentlemen: 15-year-old Vladimir Guerrero Jr https://t.co/Z2kAZS9XCd

— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) February 9, 2015

The last stages of the MLB hot stove continued, with news on arbitration settlements and a possible trade scenario.

Jon Jay and the St. Louis Cardinals avoided arbitration Monday after agreeing to terms on a two-year contract.

The deal is worth a total of $10.975 million, according to Derek Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and Jay will earn $3.5 million in 2015. Jay is among the more unheralded pieces of the Cardinals' recent success but has been a valuable contributor for St. Louis with his defense in center field and timely hitting.

Jay had one of the best years of his career in 2014 at the age of 29, hitting .303/.372/.378 over 468 plate appearances. Jay initially requested a $5 million salary for the 2015 campaign, with the Cardinals countering at $4.1 million.

Tigers looking to add Navarro?

The Tigers and Blue Jays are discussing a trade that would involve catcher Dioner Navarro, according to Jeff Blair of Toronto SportsNet.

With Victor Martinez requiring knee surgery and incumbent catcher Alex Avila's continued struggles with concussions, the Tigers could use some added depth behind the plate. Navarro would fit the bill, and as a switch-hitter would also provide another versatile bat for Detroit's offense.

Navarro, who turned 31 on Monday, hit .274/.317/.395 for the Blue Jays in 2014, slugging 12 home runs in 520 plate appearances.

Angels, Joyce avoid arbitration

The Angels and Matt Joyce avoided arbitration on a one-year deal Monday evening, according to Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com.

Joyce will earn $4.75 million in 2015 after originally filing for a $5.2 million salary. The 30-year-old outfielder hit .254/.349/.383 with nine home runs for the Rays last season, appearing mostly in a platoon role against right-handed pitching.

Aaron Loup struggled with his control for the first time last season. Where did all of the strikes go?

Simply put, the Blue Jays need Aaron Loup to be good this season.

Although the bullpen isn't quite as bereft of talent as some prognosticators would have the Jays fanbase believe, there are a fair amount of question marks in the relief core. The team can't afford for Loup to be one of them.

However, regardless of what the Jays can afford, the 27-year-old's 2014 was a bit suspect. Loup did post a very solid 3.15 ERA, but his 3.83 FIP and 3.92 xFIP were uninspiring, leading to a career-low 0.5 WAR. For the most part his faults were cushioned by a .246 BABIP that he is unlikely to repeat.

The season was not without its positives as Loup did manage a career bests in velocity and strikeout percentage, but he had one major issue: his control. The southpaw walked 10.6% of the batters he faced, despite walking only 3.8% in his previous two season.

In theory what Loup does best is keep the ball in the strike zone and on the ground and last season he stopped doing one of those things. That's particularly troubling for a guy who's likely looking at a pretty high-leverage role for the Blue Jays in 2015.

So, how did he slip up in 2014? The most obvious thing that would cause Loup to throw fewer strikes would be some kind of issue with his sinker. He throws his sinker the vast majority of the time and if he lost his feel for the pitch somehow it would definitely explain the huge spike in walks.

There was undoubtedly a drop off in Aaron Loup's ability to find the zone with his sinker and get hitters to chase it. These losses are marginal but they add up on a pitch he throws around 70 percent of the time. It hard to find something correctable here as the difference appears to be an execution issue rather than an approach issue. Sinkers are designed to be thrown low in the zone pretty much no matter what.

It should be noted that it might not hurt Loup to go back to his previous frequency of sinkers because the pitch still generates a lot of strikes, especially compared to his other offerings.

The thing is that Loup's off-speed pitches are almost never thrown in the strike zone. The Brooks Baseball Zone Profile below shows the location of all of his curveballs and changeups since he entered the league in 2012:

This strategy makes sense by and large. Hanging curveballs and changeups is a really good way to get taken out of the park and Loup doesn't want to take any chances. He throws his off-speed stuff low and out of the zone where it is more likely to be whiffed at than clobbered.

Sometimes the results are very pretty. Multiple times last season Loup got out of jams by making batters look foolish on curveballs and changes well out of the zone. Like this changeup against Orioles catcher Caleb Joseph:

This change against Alcides Escobar:

Or this game-ending hook against Yangervis Solarte:

These are all great pitches, but in order to throw them effectively you have to keep hitters honest. If your off-speed pitches are always out of the zone then opposing batters are going to clue in and lay off. That hasn't happened to Loup yet, but he's probably pushing the envelope.

Loup threw more changes and curves than ever last season and put even fewer of them in the zone, a recipe for an increase in walks. Hitters may still be chasing his stuff, but there is going to be a tipping point where he isn't doing enough to prevent his opponents for taking everything off-speed.

Because Loup lacks a strong ability to miss bats command is going to be the cornerstone of his game. In order to avoid putting men on base he will likely have to throw his off-speed pitches in the zone more consistently, even if he runs the risk of getting hit hard from time to time.

At the end of the day Aaron Loup is going to live and die by his sinker, but if he could throw more of his secondary stuff in the zone he could make life easier for himself, and the Blue Jays by extension.

The annual BBB countdown rolls on

We're getting into the more well-known prospects now, after MjwW covered 31-35 yesterday and Tom spotlighted 36-40 the day prior. Once again the links for this year and last year are provided below. This crop of players is fairly diversified with a good mix of projectable young players and one pitcher who should be on the verge of a call-up to the Major Leagues.

2015: 31-35 | 36-40

2014: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30 | 31-35 | 36-40

30. Jake Brentz, LHP, age 20 (DOB: 11/14/1994), last year: unranked

It's maybe a bit surprising that Brentz appears so high on this year's list after not even being ranked in 2014 considering he did very little to prove he deserved such a sizeable jump. After being drafted in the 11th round of the 2013 draft, Brentz was thought to be a possible tough sign but eventually agreed on a $700K bonus. He was highly regarded coming out of high school and actually was ranked higher than Phillip Bickford on some pre-draft lists, which made the failure to sign Bickford slightly easier to swallow (not really).

In 2014 Brentz stayed in the GCL and made six starts and six relief appearances for a total of 39.2 innings. His ERA ended up being 4.08, not helped by a 5.9 BB/9 making it clear the control was a bit of an issue. He wasn't a pitcher for the majority of his baseball career, but when a left-hander can throw a mid-90's fastball then things can change pretty quickly. His second-best pitch is a changeup (not a bad thing for a southpaw) and he also has a below average breaking ball. Brentz is as raw as it gets, but a solid year in short season ball should see him move up the list.

29. Chase De Jong, RHP, age 21 (DOB: 12/29/1993), last year: 12

A former highly thought of prospect, De Jong stalled a bit during 2014 spending the whole year pitching fairly ordinarly in Low-A Lansing. Making 23 appearances (21 starts), De Jong ended the year with a 4.82 ERA and his strikeout rate completely fell off the map (from 28.1% in 2013 to 17.2%). As a newly turned 21-year-old he certainly still has a lot of time to turn it around (at least that's what I tell myself considering our similar age situation) and should make the jump to Dunedin in 2015 looking to miss more bats.

If you want to see a lot of fastballs:

28. John Stilson, RHP, age 24 (DOB: 7/28/1990), last year: 15

It's a shame that Stilson tore his labrum last season in June because he likely would have ended up in Toronto and certainly should have been in the mix to break camp with the team this spring. The surgery done in August was set to put him out for 6-8 months, meaning he should be back to pitching sometime in the next few months. He had another consistent year as a reliever in Buffalo before the injury, pitching to a 3.18 ERA thanks to a hard fastball combined with a solid changeup and slider. Unlike someone more projectable like Jake Brentz, Stilson is as close to a sure thing as there can be when considering a prospect's shot at a major league career.

27. Lane Thomas, 3B/CF, age 19 (DOB: 8/23/1995), last year: doing homework in high school

The first pick in last year's draft that wasn't a pitcher or catcher was Lane Thomas in the fifth round. The third base and center field prospect did also pitch in high school but seems to have put that on the back burner for now. Not a ton was known about the Knoxville native when he was drafted but his coach in high school said:

He has a chance to be a great power hitter, but he also has tremendous speed. He can steal a ton of bases. He set the table for our offense. I couldn't have asked for anything more out of him.

He signed for a fair bit of money forcing him away from his commitment to play baseball at Tennessee:

5th-rder Lane Thomas signs w/@BlueJays for $750k (pick value at 144 = $343k). Tennessee HS OF w/all-around tools. @MLBDraft

— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) June 10, 2014

During his first season of pro ball he was solid in the GCL and made an appearance in Bluefield where he was even more impressive as just an 18-year-old. Look for Thomas to have a chance to possibly spend some time in Vancouver this year if he keeps up his eyebrow-raising performance from 2014.

26. Dan Jansen, C, age 19 (DOB: 4/15/1995), last year: unranked

The 16th round pick in the 2013 draft had very little buzz surrounding him prior to the 2014 season, but a .390 OBP in Bluefield changed that a fair bit. The catcher from Wisconsin hardly showed up in searches unless you misspelled Casey Janssen or were looking for the speed skater of the same name. While there still isn't a ton of information out there about him, a lot of people who have seen him play seem to have come away impressed.

The Blue Jays co-ordinator of instruction certainly had nice things to say about the catcher:

What you love about Jansen is that he is a blue-collar guy. He is a terrific worker, he has good aptitude, a good body and strength and Jansen, from where he was when he first signed to where he is now, he has made the strides and the leaps forward that you hope a player will make...He enjoys working with the pitching staff and he enjoys taking more accountability . For his age he is doing well, he is a blue collar guy who will give everything back there and you know you can trust him and he has the pitchers best interest in mind.

He's certainly another guy to follow throughout the upcoming season as the Blue Jays system (as well as every other system in baseball) is relatively weak on catchers (aside from the obvious star in Max Pentecost).

Here is the Blue Jays travel plan for this season.

You want to chase the Blue Jays this summer, this is the flying you will have to do:

Image from baseballsavant.com

That's 26563 miles of flight, roughly 42,750 kilometers. This doesn't include their preseason trip from Dunedin to Montreal.

It puts the Jays right in the middle of the pack for miles in the air. The Mariners, of course are the ones that fly the most, being in the air 43,281 miles, just short of 70,000 km. That would be pretty close to flying around the world twice.

The Rays are the AL East team that will travel the most, going 35,824 miles (57650 km). That's what they get for being way out there in Florida, if they were smart they would move to somewhere closer to the other AL East teams, say Montreal?

The Jays do have some long flights, going from Toronto to San Francisco. And returning home, on that road trip, from Seattle to Toronto. And then there is an August flight from Philadelphia to Anaheim.

According to Baseball Prospectus, Marco Estrada is due for a sizeable improvement in the 2015 season.

As I'm sure many of you know, the Baseball Prospectus for 2015 is in. I'm still digesting all of it and, if you don't have your copy, I definitely urge you to order one.

At the back of the book is perhaps the crown jewel of BP: the PECOTA projections for the upcoming season. For those unfamiliar with PECOTA it stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm and is described on Wikipedia as a 'backronym' -- a word I had no idea existed -- because of its namesake, Bill Pecota. Nate Silver originally developed it but has since moved onto FiveThirtyEight as a political analyst that makes extremely successful projections.

What you need to know out of all of this is that PECOTA, as its acronym suggests, relies on a comparison algorithm, where it takes data from the previous three seasons and returns players with similar statistics at the same age.

While the Toronto Blue Jays have Marcus Stroman tied for 13th with Jon Lester for the upcoming season in WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player -- BP's iteration of WAR), there was a name that caught my eye on the WARP-Improvments list. As you may have guessed thanks to the title of this article, Marco Estrada is expected to make the second biggest improvement by WARP of any pitcher in the major leagues.

According to Baseball Prospectus, Marco Estrada was good for -0.9 WARP last season. Nate Silver's computer baby expects Estrada to improve by just over 2 WARP and have a 1.2 win season in 2015. Due to the nature of PECOTA, it is a relatively conservative projection system; it doesn't get especially excited or depressed about any player. So, Estrada's expected improvement, though it may seem not incredibly impressive, is still telling.

That projection puts him behind Jered Weaver and ahead of fellow underperformers Matt Cain, Tim Hudson, Tim Lincecum and C.J. Wilson by expected improvements. But why? Why does PECOTA seem to like Estrada? Beside those names, Estrada feels like an odd man out. All five of those names could, at one point in their career, be described as aces. I know that, to many people, ace involves longevity and that's where Cain and Lincecum fall short. The others fall short of the 'ace' narrative mostly thanks to one or more below average seasons over an otherwise impressive career.

That leaves us with Marco Estrada who, at no point, has been described as an ace. With a season of 2.3 WARP in PECOTA's memory, a season of 1.2 in 2015 isn't far-fetched. Including last year's bad year, Estrada has been worth 0.8 WARP on average to his team the past three seasons. Not a terribly far cry from his projection.

PECOTA goes on to compare Estrada to Brett Myers, Jeff Karstens and Randy Wolf. As Estrada is going into his age 31/32 season, it is important to note Estrada is being compared to the 31-32 year old versions of those pitchers. For Myers, that was two seasons ago. Myers was coming off a career-high 3.2 fWAR the season before and hit 1.2 fWAR (Estrada's projection) the following year. Interesting to the Estrada dialogue: Myers started 33 games that season. In the land of unfair comparisons: Myers hasn't started a game since April 19, 2013.

Jeff Karstens is only one year older than Marco Estrada, so there's not much crystal-balling to be done there.

Randy Wolf on the other hand started games as recently as last year in his age 37 season. In fact, from 2007 to 2011, Wolf started 152 games, averaging over 30 per season. Those are his age 31 to 35 seasons.

Obviously we can't pick and choose who we want Marco Estrada to become, he is Marco Estrada. However, PECOTA projections have made a somewhat bold claim here. Mostly because of its selectively short memory. Where Randy Wolf had 7 above average seasons from age 23-29. Estrada didn't have a noticeably above average season until he was 28.

This is by no means a condemnation of Baseball Prospectus, PECOTA or Marco Estrada. If PECOTA projects something, it's definitely addressing a certain perspective. It is sometimes important to determine where the perspective came from and whether or not to believe it.

Time will tell with Estrada and, frankly, I'm optimistic. But, after looking at why PECOTA comes to its conclusions, my optimism is at least slightly time sensitive.

. . .

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

Michael Bradburn is a Contributor for Bluebird Banter. He is also a Featured Writer for Beyond the Box Score. You can follow him on Twitter at @mwbii. You can also reach him at michaelwbii@gmail.com

Josh Donaldson will make $4.3 million in 2015

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports informed us thatJosh Donaldson and the Toronto Blue Jays were in a salary arbitration hearing on Thursday and today we found out that the arbitrator sided with the Jays.

#BlueJays Josh Donaldson loses arbitration case and will earn $4.3M. He was 2nd in the AL in WAR in 2014, trailing only Mike Trout.

— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) February 13, 2015

Last month, the Blue Jays filed their offer of $4.3 million while Donaldson requested $5.75 million, a fairly significant difference at $1.45 million. Matt Swartz and MLB Trade Rumors' model predicted that the third baseman would get $4.5 million for 2015, so the Jays came in slightly under that.

With this arbitration decision, Donaldson became the first Blue Jays position player to have lost in arbitration in franchise history.

Update:

Later, Donaldson tweeted this:

Had a great experience with @MLB_PLAYERS and my agency. Take away a lot of positive lessons, and most importantly time to grind on the field

— Josh Donaldson (@BringerOfRain20) February 13, 2015

It is nice to see that he doesn't seem upset at the loss, though I wouldn't be upset about making $4.3 million.

Alison Gordon Dies at 72

Pioneering Toronto Star Blue Jays beat writer Alison Gordon passed away Thursday morning at the age of 72 after undergoing lung surgery earlier in the week, reports Brendan Kennedy.

Her five-year tenure on the beat, starting in the disastrous 1979 season, was before my time, but I did recall reading a few of her columns while doing research in the Star's digital archives. Although her given name was clearly feminine, I never clued in on how monumentous it was for a woman to be covering a sports team's beat back then. As Kennedy noted in his article, there was still a league-wide clubhouse ban on women reporters going into the 1978 season. I was a bit embarrassed to have not known that she was actually baseball's first woman beat reporter as well as the first woman to be allowed into the Baseball Writers' Association of America. Israel Fehr noted in his post on Yahoo! Sports that Gordon's BBWAA membership card read "Mr. Alison Gordon."

Echoing what Andrew Stoeten wrote on the topic, in addition to my embarrassment, I am a bit saddened that Gordon's trailblazing story had not been more widely told.

Other Blue Jays News

The beautiful soft drink, Chris Colabello, was successfully outrighted off the 40-man roster, reports Gregor Chisholm. He was designated for assignment when the Jays traded for Jayson Aquino. Colabello will retain the rights to attend big league camp when spring training starts in two weeks. (TWO WEEKS!) Andy Dirks will not be joining him, as Dirks will rehab his back injury in minor league camp.

Jose Bautista told MLB Network's Hot Stove that he would like to finish his career in Toronto, as a Blue Jay. Fine by me! (Although I'd assume most players under contract would say something similar.)

Dan Szymborski and FanGraphs released the ZiPS projections for the 2015 Blue Jays on Thursday, and spoke to our pals at Blue Jays Plus about them.