Cashew Mirman's latest video, this time on the Blue Jays' 2014-2015 offseason brought to you by Pitch Talks.

Unfortunately, this will also be Cashew Mirman's last video, as he will be sued by Aramark, Rogers Centre's food provider for false and libellous claims.

The next Pitch Talks event will be happening next Thursday, February 19 at 7 pm at the Randolph Theatre in Toronto (736 Bathurst Street, just south of Bloor).

Valentine's Day has become one of my favourite holidays because I spend it commemorating that disastrous season when Bobby Valentine managed the Red Sox. The calendar year that started with this and ended with Valentine's dismissal was just magical for us who happen to dislike the Red Sox a lot. So to me, Valentine's Day is all about love; specifically my love of Boston sports fans when they get sad (which doesn't happen that often).

Turf Update

On Friday afternoon, Stephen Brooks (Senior Vice President, Business Operations) posted updated photos of the new AstroTurf surface that the Blue Jays will be playing on come Opening Day.

Photos may not do it justice but with infill and grooming seams are much better. Nice job team. @AstroTurfUSApic.twitter.com/SBKeu7pXQo

— Stephen R Brooks (@sbrooksbaseball) February 13, 2015

The AstroTurf field appeared to be dark green with splotches of black rubber in 2014. Minor Leaguer Photo.

From those two shots, it appears to look a lot smoother now than it did at the State of the Franchise event, with much of the seams vanishing after being groomed. What I am most happy with is how the colour of the turf still looks decent after the addition of the black rubber infill. However, do note that a careful look Brooks' photos shows that the green channel is a bit oversaturated (look at the acer and TD signs--don't they look a little greener than usual?). But the most important thing is that there is no more ugly black splotches of rubber as there was last season.

Closeup of the black rubber infill sitting on top of the turf used for the 2014 season. Minor Leaguer photo.

At least not yet. The next big test for this turf is when the Rogers Centre groundscrew have to repeatedly roll it back up when the Rogers Centre hosts another event. From what I understand from speaking with Brooks, the reason why we saw those black splotches last year was that the turf blades were almost completely compressed by last season, so the infill basically sat on top of the blades instead of under and in between. The constant rolling and unrolling is also what shortens the life of the AstroTurf field in Rogers Centre compared to Tropicana Field, which is a baseball-only facility.

But ultimately, the most important thing about the turf is how it plays and how players feel about playing on it. That, we'll find out in April.

Blue Jays Links

Marcus Stroman’s Absurd Set of Pitch Comps - FanGraphs Baseball (NSFW!)
There is nothing that will be more arousing for Blue Jays fans this Valentine's Day than this piece on Marcus Stroman by Jeff Sullivan. Sullivan was playing around with PITCHf/x data and was flummoxed when he noticed unbelievable pitch comps for the young right-hander. We already read about his sinker being like Roy Halladay's but through Sullivan's piece we see that he has Johnny Cueto's four-seamer, Jose Fernandez and Yu Darvish's curveball, and Gerrit Cole and Chris Archer's slider. If I had access to Photoshop on this computer I would have done a mashup with a six-armed Stroman holding six Cy Young Awards and wearing six World Series rings.

Sullivan writes, "Look at it this way, and you’d think Marcus Stroman is a guy we made up. I can assure you, he’s very much real." He forgot "and spectacular".

Oh by the way, Call a doctor if you find yourself re-reading that piece for more than four hours.

Speaking of Stroman, he received a lovely Valentine from his momma:

Valentine. ❤️ @aya11763pic.twitter.com/qyR9OUWLir

— Marcus Stroman (@MStrooo6) February 13, 2015

Why the Toronto Blue Jays’ young pitchers could beat the projections - National Post
The proximity to spring training brings the optimist out of even some like Andrew Stoeten, who looks at how Drew Hutchison, Marcus Storman, and Aaron Sanchez can actually do better than what computational models have projected for their 2015 season. It all comes down to each of the three having made legitimate physical changes partway through 2014. Small sample size alert and all, but it's February, it's -20 outside, so dream away.

Guerrero headed for Montreal in April - Canadian Baseball Network
Vladimir Guerrero will be one of a handful of former Expos who will be in Montreal for the Blue Jays - Reds exhibition games in early April. The big question is whether he will be bringing his son, reportedly a future Blue Jays prospect, along on the trip. There is an Expos All-Star Gala at the Hyatt on April 1, and tickets are still available if you can afford to fork over $300. Tom, you are getting my ticket, right?

Why can’t Blue Jays spend like Padres? - Toronto Star
The former PR guy for the Expos (he actually tosses in two references to his time in Montreal) wonders why the Padres were able to spend this offseason while the Blue Jays were not. Then, three Expos-related paragraphs later, he shows how the Blue Jays are outspending the Padres by some $27 million. Shrug.

Around the League

How much are taxes affecting James Shields' payday with the Pads? - FOX Sports
While we are on the topic of the Padres, California has high income tax rates so James Shields will be hit hard: the contract he signed with San Diego says $75 million, but according to an accountant tapped by Ken Rosenthal, Shields would "only" get to pocket $38.97 million of it. I wonder what his tax burden would be if he had signed in Ontario.

Left Out - The Players' Tribune
Who knew that Andrew McCutchen was such a good writer? In a fantastic piece for The Players' Tribune, Cutch uses the recent incident of the Jackie Robinson West team being stripped of their Little League title as a launching board for a discussion about how poorer families just cannot afford to showcase their kids to scouts.

I know next to nothing about what athletic kids go through to get noticed, but I once worked for a hockey dad who constantly told me stories of the different teams his then-10-year-old son was on and how expensive registration fees and trainers fees were. It seemed like every weekend they were off on some tournament somewhere hours away. Some of these leagues even mandated that kids wear gear that looks new and not worn. Now, my co-worker and his wife were quite well-to-do so their son got the opportunity to play in front of scouts and build up a solid hockey resume, while the kids from families who can't afford hotels and transportation and tournament fees and brand new gear every season have to rely on luck and charity by generous donors. But I guess that's the way things are and will always be. It would be nice to start discussing solutions to level the playing field little by little.

On December 16^th, 2012, the Blue Jays appeared to have acquired their new ace of the pitching staff. R.A. Dickey had just won the National League Cy Young award, giving the Blue Jays a possible ace.

It is safe to say, Toronto had high expectations for R.A. Dickey. The results to date, a 3.97 earned run average in two seasons as a Blue Jay, simply have not lived up to all the hype. After expecting an ace, many Blue Jay fans have soured on R.A. Dickey. I certainly had lowered my expectations for R.A. Dickey, which can be shown by a recent comment I made on January 30^th:

"I don't know how you can say Dickey is the closest thing to an ace on this team. Both Stroman and Buehrle were quite a bit better than him last season."

I viewed R.A. Dickey as a number three starter, nothing more. Things changed for me after reading a recent article from MjwW on Marco Estrada. The article pointed out how avoiding contact is the single most important factor in striking out batters. By looking at contact rate, we can get a good indication of where a pitcher's strikeout rate should be.

After looking at the data, R.A. Dickey's strikeout percentage seemed very low considering the low contact rates he posted in 2014. I thought that maybe R.A. Dickey was always an outlier to this rule, given that he is a knuckleball pitcher, but previous seasons of data suggest this is not a regular occurrence:

Though R.A. Dickey does tend to post lower K% than his contact rate would suggest, a 3% difference is simply not the norm. By taking a 3 or 5-year simple average we would expect a gap of around 1-1.5%, much smaller than the 3% gap he posted in 2014.

After seeing this, I wondered what R.A. Dickey's numbers would look like if he had one of his regular gaps between K% and "Hypothetical K%". I used the formulaprovided by Fangraphs to estimate Dickey's Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) in 2015.

To determine Dickey's hypothetical FIP in 2015 I used the following assumptions:

1.     Dickey would post a -1.5% gap between his K% and hypothetical K%, roughly the same gap he has posted in a five year sample.

2.     Dickey would post the same Contact % from 2014 in 2015

3.     Dickey would post the same rates in BB+HBP%, HR/FB and IP/season as he has over his Blue Jays career (2013-2014).

4.     The most recent FIP constant (2014) was used

The Resulting FIP: 3.75

This number looks very number three starter like at first glance, but let's not forget that R.A. Dickey consistently outperforms his FIP. As a knuckleball pitcher, Dickey generates more weak contact and is expected to have a relatively low batting average for balls in play (BABIP). As a Blue Jay, Dickey has outperformed his FIP by 0.48, slightly lower than the 0.6 gap he posted on the Mets. If Dickey simply maintains the gap between his ERA & FIP that he has posted as a Blue Jay, we get the following result:

Runs Allowed per 9 Innings (RA/9): 3.27

For comparisons sake, Jeff Samardzija posted a 3.2 FIP in roughly 220 innings in 2015. Though he did not pitch his home games in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre, these numbers were good for a 4.1 WAR. Among pitchers, Samardzija posted the 16^th highest WAR in all of Major League Baseball.

More Than a Number Three Starter

If R.A. Dickey can avoid contact at a similar rate in 2015, he could quickly regain his reputation as one of the better pitchers in the game. An improvement to his strike out rate can be expected, which could lower his FIP and ERA significantly. Though he probably will not challenge for the Cy Young award again, the Blue Jays have every reason to be optimistic going forward. Though a 3.27 ERA may be a bit optimistic, if the gap shrinks between his strikeout percentage and "hypothetical strikeout percentage" we could see large improvements to his overall numbers. In 2015, I expect R.A. Dickey to more than just a number three starter.

I am allowed to make whatever crazy statement I want to in the headline of this article because I ended it with a question mark.

Injuries are understood to be a part of the game of baseball, but it is always tough to see young, promising pitchers go down with a condition that is potentially career-threatening. On Sunday afternoon, Blue Jays starter Marcus Stroman posted a photo of himself on Twitter that has caused me great concern.

I've been on a mission. pic.twitter.com/fnKlTLqr0E

— Marcus Stroman (@MStrooo6) February 15, 2015

Looking at the photo I believe that Stroman is possibly looking at starting the season on the disabled list because it appears that his molecular structure is destabilizing. I hate to speculate but as a baseball blogger with a science degree who has read more than one article on biomechanics, I believe that I am almost qualified to make medical diagnoses based on still photos posted online. Currently it is not known whether the symptoms show up only when he pitches or whether these quantum fluctuations occur when he is off the mound.

Could the root cause of this extremely rare condition be a violation of Pauli's exclusion principle (which limits how many great pitchers' pitches one single human can have) stemming from Stroman's set of ridiculous pitch comps?

More to come.

Jose Bautista's production over the last five years have been unlike any in Blue Jays history.

When it's all said and done there is a not insignificant chance that Jose Bautista goes down as the greatest Blue Jays position player of all time.

Depending on the value one places on playoff performances that could seem like an absurd notion. After all, Bautista has authored very few of the franchise's iconic moments and is running out of time to do so in the future. However, the idea of a "GOAT" is ultimately a subjective one, with every observer bringing their own set of criteria.

Personally, I don't believe in penalizing players for the ineptitude of their teammates. Mike Trout has been my choice for MVP for three straight years and for me Bautista is in the conversation as the greatest position player in Jays history without a playoff appearance.

Another hurdle for Bautista is that his lack of longevity with the Jays means he's unlikely to make an assault on the record books for any counting stats. He's 133 home runs and over 500 RBI behind Carlos Delgado on the team's leaderboard and it would take a contract extension and sustained production into his late 30's to catch up to the beloved slugger.

What Bautista has done is put together a five-year peak unlike any Blue Jays fans have witnessed in the team's 38-year history. Since reinventing himself as one of the game's premier home run hitters in 2010, he has produced the following line.

Those numbers are astounding, especially within the context of the Toronto Blue Jays franchise. In order to see how Bautista compared to other Jays legends, I took the top 15 Blue Jays position players by WAR and put their best five consecutive seasons (also by WAR) with Toronto up against his.

Our writers voted on the best players for the upcoming season. Who finished ninth?

Over the last couple of weeks, we've offered introductions to our Best Players of 2015 series. We set the stage for the whole endeavor, and we then revealed the players who earned landed between 45th and 11th on the list. If you need a refresher on the methodology, nine of our writers ranked players based on how well they thought players would perform during the 2015 season. They ranked them from No. 1 to No. 20, and those players got point values (20 for first, 19 for second, etc) and were ranked by the sum of their points. The highest possible score is 180. Last week, we told you Anthony Rendon ranked tenth.

#9: Jose Bautista, Right Field (Toronto Blue Jays)

Bob DeChiara/USA Today Sports

There are basically three things worth saying in any conversation about Jose Bautista. The first is the obvious one: he was a late bloomer who didn't really show anything until late in his age-28 season. He changed his swing and became the poster child for late career breakouts. Everyone who has their first great season after 27 might be the next Bautista. That's thing number one.

Thing number two is that he follows everyone on Twitter. As I write this, he follows 400,000 people. Just imagine how long it takes him to catch up on his timeline after a long car ride.

Thing three is more of an inside joke, but if you play fantasy baseball in an auction format, there's a minor league pitcher of the same name and usually you can trick someone into spending like $30 on him because he thinks it's the Bautista that hits the ball rather far.

Why We Love Him

It wasn't much of a question that Bautista would appears somewhere in the top 20. He's averaged 5.7 fWAR per 600 PA over the last five seasons and the only reason for the "per 600 PA" rate qualifier was because he missed a little time due to injury. But we're talking about nearly 30 WAR over five seasons and that doesn't need much qualifying.

Obviously, it's power and patience that earns Bautista a high ranking. He's a solid corner outfielder who does fine on the bases, but he's a 15% walk rate guy who slugs over .500. You'd have to be terrible at everything else to not turn some heads with those numbers.

Particularly, Bautista gets high marks from our voters because he's a patient slugger who doesn't lack the ability to make contact. He has a powerful swing, but he strikes the ball at a roughly league average rate to go along with his terrific eye and superhuman bat speed.

The Projections

The projections for Bautista are only interesting if you're into quibbling about how ZiPS allocates playing time. Steamer likes him for 5.3 WAR, PECOTA for 5.0, and ZiPS brings up the rear at 4.2, but mostly because it's forecasting about 100 fewer PA. Where you've been this good for five seasons, you generally get a favorable projection for the next season. Maybe Bautista won't be a star for much longer, but when you have his power and eye, you're not going to fall off a cliff in the near future.

Where He Fits In

Bautista was named on eight* ballots, ranging from 20th to 7th, and finished with 66 points to just barely edge out Rendon. Interestingly, that makes Bautista the official fourth outfielder of the top 10, with three pretty obvious names waiting above him.

* - glares at Scott Lindholm

There's an interesting comparison to be made someday between Bautista and Giancarlo Stanton. There's more discipline in Bautista's game and more power in Stanton's, but if Bautista had found his legs about three years earlier he'd probably be sitting on an extra eleventy gillion dollars.

Also worth pondering is Bautista at No. 9 versus Yasiel Puig at No. 14. They aren't terribly far apart, but it's fun to think about. Which player would you prefer for 2015? Puig comes with some of the "not-playing-the-game-the-right-way" baggage, but he's about ten years younger and seemingly less likely to wear down. I wonder how many GMs would agree with our voters and take Bautista, thinking only about 2015?

Bautista is also a good sanity check that our writers followed the rules. He's certainly got plenty of value for 2015 and our writers didn't get caught up looking ahead at surplus value and long term cost-controlled talent. The list is about 2015 and Bautista has given us every reason to continue to believe in his abilities for next year.

...

Statistics via FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.

Neil Weinberg is the Associate Managing Editor at Beyond The Box Score, the Site Educator at FanGraphs, and writes enthusiastically at New English D.

Some exciting prospects make their way into this sixth entry of this year's annual BBB countdown

After a weekend break it's time to gear up for the stretch run of the prospect countdown as #11-#15 are featured today. The players in this portion of the list had some varied rankings among Tom, MjwW, and myself depending on what we personally value the most.

2015: 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30 | 31-35 | 36-40

2014: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30 | 31-35 | 36-40

15. Matt Boyd, LHP, age 24 (DOB: 2/2/1991), last year: 24

Boyd was the Blue Jays sixth round pick in 2013 out of Oregon State, becoming the first of numerous high quality college pitchers the team drafted that year. The lefty from the state of Washington didn't move through the system as quickly as fellow 2013 draftee Kendall Graveman, but all it takes is one solid season to end up in the Blue Jays bullpen as we've seen. The 24-year-old split time between Dunedin and New Hampshire in 2014 starting 26 games with much better results in High-A than Double-A. A 1.39 ERA in the FSL ballooned to a 6.96 mark in ten starts with the Fisher Cats.

Boyd doesn't blow anyone away, throwing a low-90's fastball along with a changeup and breaking ball although none of the pitches are considered dominant and a reliever role may be in his future. He should start the season in New Hampshire looking to right his wrongs from last season and continue his climb through the minor league system.

14. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP, age 19 (DOB: 8/30/1995), last year: dominating high school

Reid-Foley was the third Blue Jays pick in the most recent draft behind Jeff Hoffman and Max Pentecost and was considered by many to be a steal at #49. Considered to be a top prep pitching prospect going into the draft, the Blue Jays were miraculously able to sign Reid-Foley for the slot value of $1.128 million keeping him away from his commitment to Florida State.

Born in Georgia, the 19-year-old has an impressive four pitch mix and command well beyond his years although the delivery can be pretty awkward. Take a look at his nasty slider along with his mechanics that include a high pitching elbow:

The draftee spent the remainder of the season with the GCL Blue Jays and was pretty wishy washy (MjwW brings soupçon and I bring wishy washy). His 9.9 SO/9 is certainly nice but the control he exhibited in high school abandoned him and he ended his short debut season with a 4.0 BB/9. Obviously Reid-Foley is extremely young and has a lot of time to refine his craft and hopefully become the type of electric pitcher that he has the potential to be.

13. Mitch Nay, 3B, age 21 (DOB: 9/20/1993), last year: 6

The highly ranked prospect from the 2014 list slid a bit this year although maybe that's doing him an injustice considering his strong first season in the minor leagues. Spending the majority of the year as the Low-A Lansing third baseman, the righty hit .285/.342/.389 with three home runs before being promoted at the end of the season to Dunedin for a handful of games. Nay's power disappeared a bit but he continued hitting quite well and should start the season in High-A looking to continue his steady rise through the system.

In Lansing, the Arizona native made 19 errors at third and didn't exactly blow anyone away with his defense. The position that Nay eventually ends up at is up for debate but the positive is that his hitting has not shown any sign of slowing down which definitely helps going forward. He's not exactly being blocked much at third base and will likely continue playing the position until the team decides there's a better option out there for him, either in right field or first base.

12. Richard Urena, SS, age 18 (DOB: 2/26/1996), last year: 28

Urena is the player that we had most difficulty ranking with a range between #17 and #6 on our lists. The Dominican spent the majority of the year playing shortstop in Bluefield hitting .318/.363/.433 before making a very short appearance in Vancouver. The youngster is considered a good bet to stay at the position going forward which certainly helps his stock considering how strong his offense is as well. Striking out over 20% is certainly a concern, but the left-handed hitter has still yet to turn 19 so there's a lot of development still to come. Urena has one of the highest ceilings for position players in the Blue Jays system and it will be exciting to watch in the next few years to see if he continues tearing it up. Not much more to say at this point...Urena is good at baseball and you should be excited.

11. Matt Smoral, LHP, age 20 (DOB: 3/18/1994), last year: 18

The yoyo life of Matt Smoral on the Bluebird Banter prospect list continues as the lefty betters last year's ranking thanks to a strong showing in Bluefield and Vancouver. In 33.2 innings in the Appalachian League the southpaw struck out 32.5% of batters although his control is still a problem and the 6'8" pitcher will have to get that sorted before having any hope of advancing any further in the minor leagues.

Although it seems like the 2012 first round pick has been around forever he's still just 20-years-old and features an impressive fastball and slider that should keep the team's hopes high on him despite his walk issues. This coming season will be important for Smoral as he'll start to get tested in the higher levels of the minors where the 30% K-rate probably won't stick around, but the 11% BB-rate certainly could.

Tuesday morning's baseball wonders about the Cole Hamels market, Yoan Moncada's future, and looks at Jose Bautista's peak.

Listen, we know it's tough to catch up on everything happening in the baseball world each morning. There are all kinds of stories, rumors, game coverage and Vines of dudes getting hit in the beans every day, and trying to find all of it while on your way to work or sitting at your desk isn't easy. It's OK, though, we're going to do the heavy lifting for you each morning, and find the things you need to see from within the SB Nation baseball network as well as from elsewhere. Please hold your applause until the end.

★★★

The Red Sox could use Cole Hamels, and please do not suggest otherwise. Hamels would be the ace Boston's rotation lacks, and he would make the team better in 2015 and likely beyond that. Whether the Red Sox need Hamels, though, is more up for debate. They already have five starters in Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Justin Masterson, and Joe Kelly. The middle three have all produced number two starter quality seasons in the past, and so long as their health and the Sox' defense is in order, that type of production could occur once again. Buchholz struggled in the first half of 2014 while recovering from a shoulder injury and dealing with a meniscus issue, but there are plenty of reasons to believe he's in line for a quality 2015.

Let's not forget, either, that Boston's lineup projects to be wonderful: it will have Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, Mike Napoli, and newcomers Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval all in a row, with promising kids like Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts flanking the group. Rusney Castillo, who posted a 928 OPS in limited late-season action after signing out of Cuba in August, is there, as is Shane Victorino, who is still a tremendous player when he's healthy. The lineup is realistically promising enough that the Sox don't need an ace to join in October fun.

It has never been anymore evident that the Sox themselves believe this than when it's reported that their offer for Hamels leaned heavily on the major league side. The Phillies want impact prospects as part of their rebuild, and the Sox mostly wanted to see if they could get Hamels without them -- they have their own plans for their kids. They can't get Hamels without giving up on the future of Betts or Blake Swihart, considered by many to be the best catching prospect in the game, so while conversations can always be opened up anew, nothing is close at the moment and no one should expect them to be close anytime soon. The Sox will likely see how their rotation pans out, and if their lineup is as productive as advertised. Maybe in July they'll need Hamels, but there are quite a few baseball games to be played before then.

And hey, the two can always meet in the middle to shift Cliff Lee and what's left of his contract instead.

• Monday was Presidents Day, so with that in mind, here are the five greatest Presidential baseball names of all time. All time being the last like, 100-plus years, anyway. There are only so many presidents and so many years of baseball, okay?


• You've analyzed Yoan Moncada in his Under Armour shirt, now analyze his baseball skills as they compare to other major prospects.


• Jason Giambi finally called it a career after 20 years, and on the same day his old teammate Barry Zito rejoined their first team, the A's.


• Non-closing relievers are finally starting to get paid, even if they don't have any experience closing at all.


• Okay, maybe the Red Sox do need Cole Hamels, but only because they need the assistance of anyone who could help them shovel out Fenway Park before Opening Day.


• Jose Bautista's peak is basically unmatched in Blue Jays' history. They haven't been to the playoffs since 1993, but the Jays have had enough high-quality hitters for that to be impressive.


• Which rivals do Royals' fans hate the most besides Robinson Cano, who they definitely are still mad at because of a Home Run Derby snub?


• Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez took in WWE's Monday Night RAW, and even managed to capture a photo with one of their up and coming stars.

Jose Reyes is known for his exciting play, speed, and even injuries. But what about his declining defense?

Jose Reyes plays the game of baseball like a Disney character: effortless in creating magic and always with a smile. Between 2006-2008, as a New York Met, there seemed to be nothing the shortstop couldn't do. He hit for average, he got on base, he even hit for some power, and of course, he blazed the base paths like an Olympian track star. He did all of these things while playing the difficult defensive position of shortstop, where, there too, he excelled at making plays.

Perhaps reputation, both of early career performance and injury - if an injury-prone player loses a step, it's easier to blame the injury than note any real drop off - has saved the now 31-year-old shortstop from too much critique. We know that Jose Reyes isn't quite the same player as yesteryear, but have we missed how bad his defense has become?

In terms of defensive runs saved, Jose Reyes has gone from one of the better shortstops in all of baseball to one of the very worst. If you've been paying attention the last few seasons, this isn't a surprise, but taking a step back, and looking at it in five-year blocks, the dramatic drop is take-a-second-look worthy.

First, let's talk a little bit about defensive runs saved. Shortened to DRS, this fielding metric attempts to rate individual players as above or below average on defense. Essentially, players are rated using film and computer comparisons (Baseball Info Solutions) for how many plays that they make relative to the average player at that position. The successful plays are then converted to "runs saved" and aggregated.

Defensive runs saved is one way of looking at defense. Of course, there are many other ways, most notably, ultimate zone rating (UZR). The two metrics are similar in concept with slight differences that you can read about here. The important point for this article is that UZR shows the exact same trend as DRS: Reyes defense gets significantly worse following the 2008 season.

So what happened? How did Reyes' defense suddenly turn terrible?

The first thing that comes to mind when looking at player performance is aging. We know that players are not like wine; they get worse as they get older, and particularly on defense, fielding skills tend to peak early. Can we attribute Reyes' drop-off in defense to age?

Using defensive WAR as the metric of choice this time, and looking at shortstops between the ages of 26-31, which overlap Reyes' down years with the glove, the results aren't much better for the Blue Jay. Between 2003-2014, only two (of 19 qualified) shortstops, with at least 650 games played, in the age range of 26-31, have a worse defensive WAR than Reyes during the same age years.

Reyes might be getting older, and defense may peak early in a player's career, but compared to his aging peers, Reyes is still not performing to an acceptable level with the glove.

If not age, perhaps injury? We all know that Reyes has been prone to hamstring injuries that can surely slow a shortstop's first step. Last season, he also battled through shoulder issues that perhaps contributed to a few throwing errors.

Reyes made eleven throwing errors in 2014, good for fifth worst in baseball. His inability to throw out runners at first with efficiency resulting in a negative error runs above average (ErrR), which is a component of UZR, and his worst negative value since 2008. Perhaps a sore shoulder - he committed back-to-back throwing errors in July when the injury was first noted - contributed to his poor throws.

A few throwing errors is one thing, but that is not the main issue with Reyes' defense. It is his range. The Dominican star just can't get to balls like he used to earlier in his career.

Looking at Reyes declining range totals, and a pattern is formed with his corresponding drop in overall defensive value. That ground ball that you thought Reyes could get to when he was a Met, he probably could; he just can't now. His reduced range resulting in him becoming one of the worst defensive shortstops in the game.

The Blue Jays have a decision to make. They can't afford to let Reyes' declining defense steal value from his still productive bat. He needs to be in the lineup, but at a position that is important for defense, he has become a problem. Perhaps a new position is in order. Defensive metrics aren't always the most accurate, but that is usually a product of sample size. Given five years of data, it is pretty clear that Jose Reyes is not the shortstop that he used to be.

. . .

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.

Jeffrey Bellone is an editor and featured writer at Beyond The Box Score. He can also be found writing for Mets Merized Online. He writes about New York sports at Over the Whitestone. You can follow and interact with him on Twitter @OverWhitestone.

Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs released his outstanding Top 200 Prospects List today and there were eight Blue Jays who appeared. Before continuing you should go read the list since it's a tremendous amount of content for free, which in my eyes is probably the most well-done list released all offseason. As a note, the rankings are done by tiers of future value on the 20-80 scale, so it is much more forward-looking than the others released around this time each year. With that in mind, it shouldn't be surprising that Jeff Hoffman appears very early on the list compared to his fellow Blue Jays prospects.

The first Toronto player on the list is our loveable lefty in Daniel Norris who finds himself at #17, which is in the 60 FV tier of players. The southpaw's fastball and curveball both get 60 FV grades, while his slider and changeup are still considered above-average. It's safe to say that McDaniel likes Norris a lot as he beats out fellow well-known pitching prospects such as Noah Syndergaard, Dylan Bundy, and Mark Appel.

The next player appearing on the list for the Blue Jays is at #67 in the 55 FV tier of players and is none other than 2014 draftee Jeff Hoffman. The nasty fastball gets a 70 FV grade on it, while the curveball gets a 65 with McDaniel raving about the bright future for the former East Carolina University player:

Even with the surgery taking Hoffman out of #1 overall pick contention, the Jays thought he wouldn’t get out of the top 5, so they were pleased to land him with the 9th overall pick. He drew comparisons to Adam Wainwright and Justin Verlander on the Cape, so if he regains that form, he could shoot to the top of this list in short order.

The Blue Jays start to come thick and fast in this tier as Aaron Sanchez is then found at #70 with similar fastball and curveball rankings to Hoffman. HIs breaking stuff is talked about as allowing him to have a future as a possible starter although as we know we have yet to really see him throw anything other than the fastball at the Major League level.

As his off-speed stuff has improved to give Sanchez at least mid-rotation stuff, the question remains if he fits better there or as a closer. Toronto’s #5 starter spot is still an open competition along with at least one bullpen slot, so Sanchez has the opportunity this year to prove where he fits.

Dalton Pompey is the first prospect in the 50 FV tier at #80 where if you like flashy players than you'll be disappointed but if you like solid regulars than you'll be pleased. His run tool is the highest rated but the tools are pretty average across the board which should al least provide stability to the Blue Jays outfield for years to come. Odds he starts in Triple-A are somewhere between nil to zilch though:

Pompey will start in Triple-A or the big leagues in 2015 and is the center fielder of the future, but the tools are more solid everyday than star material.

Also in the 50 FV tier is 2014 draftee Max Pentecost at #93 who McDaniel has apparently always been high on especially factoring in his likely ability to stick behind the plate:

I was the high guy on him much of the spring, with the industry catching up when Theo Epstein was spotted at a Pentecost game and rumors spread that he may go #4 overall. Pentecost ended up going #11 overall and has unusual tools for a catcher with a ridiculous amount of energy (watch the end of the linked video) and every tool solid average or better, though his line drive approach in games causes his raw power to play down right now.

A slightly surprising ranking finds Roberto Osuna at the #119 ranking of the same tier as Pompey as McDaniel believes the hype is real and the Mexican could become quite a solid starting pitcher.

He’s now sitting 92-94 and hitting 97 mph, sitting a few ticks higher in short stints, with a slider and cutter that are both above average and the same changeup as before. The command hasn’t quite come back but that usually happens in year two or three after surgery, so Osuna could shoot up this list soon.

There's also a tier of 45+ FV players that round out the Top 200 and they include second baseman Devon Travis and RHP Sean Reid-Foley, although the upside on the two players is obviously a little different. The list is extremely informative and should provide Blue Jays fans some excitement as eight players place the team quite high based purely on number of prospects in the list. The downside is that the majority of the players are towards the back end of the FV rankings and only Daniel Norris was considered a 60 FV. It's also of note that the first six prospects on the Bluebird Banter list also appear on the FanGraphs list, while Osuna and Reid-Foley were #10 and #14 respectively.

The last five players are revealed with the future looking very bright for some Blue Jays prospects.

The final five players are the list are quite consistent across all the lists released around the internet this offseason with the three players that reached the Major Leagues in 2014 being joined by the two first round picks from the most recent draft. Among the top three players there was a lot of disagreement though, as the three of us all had a different player in the top spot. Without further ado!

2015: 6-10 |11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30 | 31-35 | 36-40

2014: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30 | 31-35 | 36-40

5. Max Pentecost, C, age 21 (DOB: 3/10/1993), last year: Studying hard in college

In most years getting out of the first round with Max Pentecost as your pick would be considered a mighty fine outcome, but as we all know the Blue Jays fared even better than that. That's certainly not an indictment on the right-handed hitting catcher who was picked 11th overall back in June. It took 22 at-bats in the GCL before he was sent north to Vancouver to finish out the season appearing in 19 games for the Canadians. He hit .313/.322/.410 in the Northwest League with gap power although he never cleared the fence.

The Kennesaw State product is a solid athletic catcher and is considered by many to be a good bet to stick behind the plate going forward. With Pentecost turning 22-years-old in a few weeks it's likely that he will be aggressively moved through the minor leagues if he continues to tear the cover off the ball. There's a chance he blazes through both levels of A-ball and maybe even makes an end of season appearance in New Hampshire if the Blue Jays really want to accelerate him through the system.

There's a few injury issues with Pentecost as his season was ended abruptly in the summer due to a wrist injury which was then followed by labrum surgery in October.

One of the few videos of Pentecost in pro ball features him striking out unfortunately:

4. Jeff Hoffman, RHP, age 22 (DOB: 1/8/1993), last year: Studying hard in college

The other 2014 first round pick comes in at #4 as Jeff Hoffman is already exciting Blue Jays fans far and wide without even throwing a pitch in pro ball. After undergoing Tommy John surgery prior to the June draft, Hoffman slid from being considered as a potential top pick to the lower half of the top ten. Everyone else's loss was the Blue Jays gain as they gambled that Hoffman would come back just as dominant as he was pre-surgery which is why he is appearing so high on every prospect list.

Not much more can be said about the righty due to his lack of action over the past year, but he's back throwing off a mound and Alex Anthopoulos has said that Hoffman should be joining a minor league team in early May. The 6'4" pitcher has a high-90's fastball to go along with a lethal 12-6 curveball plus a changeup and slider that are both still a work in progress. Although Hoffman has seen his development time delayed by a year, he still has the tools to move fairly quickly through the lower minor leagues and could reach Dunedin by the end of the season if he pitches to his capabilities.

3. Dalton Pompey, CF, age 22 (DOB: 11/12/1992), last year: 21

One of the three players on the list to see Major League action last year, Pompey has the center field job due to lack of any other option and will hopefully prove he actually deserves it in Spring Training. MjwW's pick for the top prospect has quite a high floor and should become a defense-first speedy center fielder at worst, while his bat could develop even further which would turn him into a solid regular player.

The Canadian's minor league year in 2014 was split between Dunedin, New Hampshire, and Buffalo with the switch-hitter compiling a slash line of .317/.392/.469 with nine home run and 43 stolen bases off 50 attempts. The September call-up had 43 plate appearances in the Major Leagues along with a touch on the bum by Derek "GOAT #re2pect" Jeter which will be the highlight of his career regardless of what happens going forward. He struck out 12 times with the Blue Jays, but it's hard to make too many inferences from such a small sample.

He also hit a home run off Felix Hernandez:

2. Aaron Sanchez, RHP, age 22 (DOB: 1/6/1992), last year: 2

The California native just barely misses out on the top spot on the list again, but is still considered a future stud of the Blue Jays pitching staff. The player that I had at the top of my list, Sanchez came just short of exceeding his rookie status after making his debut on July 23rd of last season. Coming out of the bullpen for all 24 appearances, Sanchez was dominant with Toronto and he did it by basically only throwing his fastball. Out of 462 pitches thrown, only 55 were off-speed with the rest being his high-90's heater. It's well-known that the righty's curveball is equally as nasty and it will be interesting to see him unleash it in the coming season to become a more unpredictable pitcher.

With a 1.09 ERA out of the bullpen it seems to be up in the air whether Sanchez with start or be a high-leverage reliever this season but unless his arm flies off his body, his floor is about as high as it can be for a pitching prospect. Personally I would love to see him in the starting rotation so he gets more than 50 innings this season, but obviously he will end up wherever the front office thinks he'll provide the most value.

1. Daniel Norris, LHP, age 21 (DOB: 4/25/1993), last year: 3

Everyone's favourite lefty who lives in a van down by the river, Norris shot through the minors last season and ended up in Toronto as an improbable September call-up with a ceiling as high as the Rogers Centre roof. The Tennessee native is still just 21-years-old (although he puts every other 21-year-old's beard to shame) and likely won't even start the season with Toronto but look for Norris to be one of the first players called up when injuries begin to hit.

During his short stint in Toronto it's been revealed that the extremely likeable Norris was working through some injury issues which eventually resulted in offseason surgery, so the ugly pitching line is much ado about nothing. Tom's pick for the top of the list features the four main pitches (all considered plus) which he wasn't afraid to flash with the Blue Jays as seen below:

There you have it folks...the Top 40 Toronto Blue Jays prospects as ranked by Tom Dakers, MjwW, and myself. Although the system is not as deep as years gone by, the pitching upside is incredible and a future rotation with Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris, and Jeff Hoffman should get even the most bitter of Jays fans excited. In the coming days we'll have a few more posts detailing some players who just missed as well as a look back at the players on last year's list. Bring on the baseball!

This is part one of a two-part season preview. In this part, we take a look at if all the question marks and holes end up working out for the Blue Jays in the 2015 season. Don't worry, pessimists. Part two will be if everything goes wrong.

The blueprint for success for the 2015 Toronto Blue Jays was evident even before the team reported for Spring Training. Have your stars perform well - especially in the lineup - and you can get away with some holes.

The Kansas City Royals had below replacement-level play from second base on their way to a Wild Card spot and eventually the World Series. They also had replacement-level play from their DH. Both were way below the American League average for those positions. The San Francisco Giants had just over replacement level play from their second baseman. Point is, there are many ways to get to the playoffs and having an above average second baseman doesn't need to be there.

The Blue Jays got OK production from that spot and really, there were too many guys who filled in to name. But since his recall in May, Devon Travis took the spot and ran with it. He wasn't great, but he was better than the Tolleson/Goins/Kawasaki group that has been there. He'll be the starter in Game One of the ALDS.

The lineup worked to perfection. Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jose Reyes all stayed productive - and healthy. In fact all four may get some MVP votes. Michael Saunders was really good in his first season in Toronto and helped out that left field spot. Russell Martin wasn't as good as he was for Pittsburgh but he was much better than most people thought. Justin Smoak also showed signs of what made him a top prospect with Texas and Seattle.

I really don't think the Mariners want to see this team in the ALCS - if that happens.

All in all, this team's offence was one of the best lineups in the league and everybody stepped up when they got a chance. But that's not the story. The story was the pitching staff.

R.A Dickey finally - finally - had that season most have been waiting for. It wasn't quite his breakout year with the New York Mets, but he would have been the team's top pitcher if it wasn't for Marcus Stroman. Stroman, in his first full season, was really good and above and beyond what anybody would have thought. He cemented his name in the Opening Day starter spot for the foreseeable future.

Mark Buehrle was Mark Buehrle. Not quite 2014, but above average in what is the four spot in the rotation. Drew Hutchison and Daniel Norris were both incredible. Norris was so good, he made the decision to keep Sanchez in the bullpen easy. Sanchez didn't pitch badly, but he got some huge eighth inning outs and even some saves as he split the closing duties with Brett Cecil. Steve Delabar also had a big bounce back from his disappointing 2014 season.

The AL East was not as bad as some people thought, and the Blue Jays needed to fend off the Baltimore Orioles and Boston Red Sox. 94 wins was enough to get there and leave the other two teams battling for the Wild Card.

In the playoffs, the Blue Jays will need to continue their balanced lineup with their unexpected above-average pitching staff. I don't know how John Gibbons will pick his playoff rotation after Stroman and Dickey, but that's a good problem to have. And with Russell Martin behind the plate, everyone improved themselves especially the young pitchers.

Finally, playoff baseball comes back to Toronto. What a way for Paul Beeston to go out.

The Thursday Morning Sporcle challenge of the week is a bit different: instead of typing things into a list, you will be asked to type them onto a photo--the 2013 Blue Jays team photo, to be precise. Your task this week is to caption the photo with the names of all the players, coaches, manager, and support staff in the picture taken by John Lott, who has graciously given us permission to use it for this game.

Photo games cannot be embedded so click the link below for the game (it should open in a new window). Then click the green "play" button then start typing either the full or just the surname of the people in that photo. Don't worry, you don't have to answer them in any particular order, just type away.

CLICK HERE TO PLAY GAME

Click here for a larger version of the photo if you want to zoom in for a closer look

BONUS GAME: Caption the 2013 Buffalo Bisons (hint: there are a lot of overlaps)

Show off your score in the comments below. When discussing possible answers be sure to black them out with the "Spoiler Text" function (click the rightmost icon between "Message" and the text box in the comments, or hit Ctrl-F when typing). All comments with an answer without the spoiler box will be hidden by a moderator.

Previous Thursday Morning Sporcle games:

• Blue Jays 40-Man Roster on July 15, 2014
• Canadian Blue Jays
• Name the Blue Jays' Johnsons
• Latest Blue Jays Complete Game Shutouts
• Top 10 Blue Jays Prospects for 2010

This is part two of our two part series in which everything either goes right or wrong for the Toronto Blue Jays.

The happy happy, joy joy post is here.

It was very much within reach. Most pre-season predictions had the Toronto Blue Jays in, at least, the American League Wild Card game after an off-season that saw them add Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin and Michael Saunders.

However, the expected weaknesses were exposed even more when the Blue Jays stars were not able to perform up to their expected level - or, more precisely, not able to perform at all.

Like last year, the Blue Jays had to deal with Jose Bautista slowed with nagging injuries and other lineup mainstays like Martin, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Reyes and Donaldson spending some time on the disabled list and, like last year, no one stepped up to help out a struggling offence which already had too many question marks.

The Justin Smoak experience did not go well, he didn't replace the value that Adam Lind brought to the lineup. The second base situation was as bad as expected, proving to be a black hole in a lineup that couldn't afford one. Center field had Dalton Pompey start the season there, but in the end, there was no one to step up and take control. Some fans were looking back fondly at the Colby Rasmus days. Jose Reyes played in 52 games.

Making things worse is that the rotation struggled as well. R.A Dickey was average, at best. Mark Buehrle did not put up numbers like his 2014 season and youngsters Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison and a mixed bag of others could not stay consistent. The fifth starter role that was so consistent last year with Stroman and then J.A. Happ (depending how you look at it) had more different appearances than a Saturday Night Live reunion show. (OK, things weren't THAT bad)

The bullpen was also a disappointment for those who expected a bounce-back year. It was more of the same. Brett Cecil was good, but didn't have the opportunity to save many games due to the struggling rotation and offence. Aaron Sanchez was not good in the rotation  and, when they put him back in the pen,  wasn't lights-out like he was in 2014. It was pretty much the worst-case scenario. Steve Delabar and Chad Jenkins also were on and off the disabled list as the Blue Jays went through almost their entire Triple A (and some Double A) staff in order to field a healthy bullpen.

To make matters worse, the division wasn't as open as people thought it would be. Boston pulled away from rest of the division on their way to 100 wins. A Wild Card also came from the East with surprising Tampa Bay pulling ahead of the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles. What was left was the Blue Jays, at 76 wins, in last place.

This was to be the year that the Blue Jays  shrewd off-season decisions led us to a playoff spot. Like 2013, all that was left at the end of the season was disappointment and the realization that there were too many problems to fix in one off-season.

The Jays are left now wondering what went wrong and how they can fix it for 2016. Oh, and that Team President saga? We have that to look forward to as well.

Some Thursday links:

First, for those of us going to Montreal:

ANNOUNCEMENT: #PitchTalksMTL moderated by @jonahkeri . Tickets on Sale now: http://t.co/51SGz3ENpr#LaBelleProvincepic.twitter.com/pZ100z4cUa

— Pitch Talks (@PitchTalks) February 19, 2015

Yay! I'm getting tickets.

Brendan Kennedy, in the Star, talks about the Top 5 Blue Jays stories going into spring training. I'm already tired of 4 of the 5. Yes, Dalton Pompey is playing CF. Yes, I would like liked them to pick up a second baseman, but I'm willing to see how things go.. Yes, Russell Martin can catch the knuckleball, the real question is 'will Gibby let him catch Dickey?'. Or will Martin allow a passed ball in the first game and then never get another chance? I'm hoping Gibby picked up some patience this winter. And, I don't really care who the closer is, I'm more interested if the bullpen, as a group, improves from last year. I am curious to see if Daniel Norris will get the 5th starter spot.

Shi Davidi has a post up at Basball America (subscription required) telling us that the Jays will be giving Dwight Smith a chance at shot at second base. We knew they were, but I'm putting up the link because I didn't know Shi was writing for BA.

By no means is a position switch set in stone for the 22-year-old, who is coming off a season at high Class A Dunedin in which he hit .284/.363/.453 in 121 games and led the Florida State League in both runs (83) and extra-base hits (48).

Smith appears destined for Double-A New Hampshire in 2015, but his bat may profile better in the infield.

"(Smith) worked closely with (roving infield instructor) Mike Mordecai, and he worked at it religiously," assistant general manager Tony LaCava said. "Mordecai was pleased with how he looked, so we're going to take a look at it."

Vice Sports has a great profile of new Blue Jays pitcher Bo Schultz. It is a fun read. He didn't pitch in high school, he didn't pitch until Junior year of college, where he was studying journalism. This is my favorite line:

"I'd covered Cotton Bowls in high school for a local newspaper and that was the path I decided to follow," says Schultz. "This was pre-Twitter and Instagram, back when Facebook still required a .edu domain. I wanted to write for digital and print because magazines were only a slow decline then, not in freefall like today."

Any time you feel like writing something, Bo, we'd love to post it.

John Lott writes about Steve Delabar's attempt to return to All-Star form. It mentions that Delabar had knee pains last year, which might have caused some of his troubles from last season.

On Thursday, he will start his drive to Dunedin, Fla., for spring training. He says a winter of meticulous conditioning has left him feeling healthy, strong and confident. Of the velocity he lost last year, he says: "The numbers are back up."

Or, to put it another way, he's in the best shape of his life. I would certainly help if he could pitch like it was 2013.

And, the Rangers have signed Rougned Odor's brother who is also named Rougned Odor. He's also an infielder.

I like this:

All done my second @DaltonPompey@JaysCare painting. What do you think? #BlueJayspic.twitter.com/zqo6jnJhAR

— Chris Ripley (@bluejaysart) February 19, 2015

Edwin Encarnacion hit his fair share of dingers last season, but which one was the most impressive?

What makes a truly great home run?

That is the sort of question that can never really be answered. Some might prioritize the sound off the bat while others might believe that the context of a round tripper lends it its beauty. Evaluating home runs is a very subjective field.

Interestingly, though, it's not without its quantifiable elements. There is a great deal about any given home run that we can measure with modern statistics (especially the ESPN Home Run Tracker) and the more I thought about this idea the more I thought the topic worth exploring. As a result I present to you my quest to identify which Edwin Encarnacion home run from 2014 was the most majestic.

Why Encarnacion? For one, he hits a lot of home runs. This exercise would not be very fun with his Blue Jays teammate Munenori Kawasaki. Secondly, even though he might be the most obvious choice for this, I wrote about Jose Bautista on Monday and I don't like to repeat myself. Lastly, I have always particularly liked watching Encarnacion hit long balls because he seems to have rare raw strength and a "force of nature" quality.

So what criteria are best used to determine which home run by EE is the most glorious/majestic/impressive/face-melting? My model (named the AAI, or Ashbourne Awe Index) takes four factors into consideration.

1. Speed Off the Bat

I think this aspect of home run hitting is underrated. There are many players who can hit a fly ball that carries out of the field of play, but truly crushing the ball on a line is more impressive, to me at least. After all, this is my awe index. There is nothing stopping you from crafting your own.

Measured in: Miles per Hour

2. Distance

This is the most obvious thing to include in an evaluation of home runs. No one number better summarizes what a home run was than its distance. Good luck finding a 500 foot round tripper that isn't impressive.

Measured in: Feet

3. Opposing Pitcher

"Opposing Pitcher" is to evaluating home runs what "Degree of Difficulty" is to Olympic diving. Anyone can take John Danks deep, clearly the fence off Clayton Kershaw is a different proposition entirely.

Measured in: Expected wOBA (The average total of the hitter's wOBA and the pitcher's-adjusting for handedness)

4. Ballparks the Home Run would leave

For a home run to be a credible moonshot it's important that it would leave every ballpark in baseball. If it a ball escapes a park based on a quirk of that particular location it is hardly awe-inspiring.

Measured in: Number of parks the home run would work in.

As the alert reader will be quick to notice, these four factors are measured very differently. In order to compare apples to oranges, I provided a rating in each category for each home run. Since I only measured Encarnacion against himself in this exercise, the home run he hit with the best mark in a given category got a rating of 100. All other ratings were formed in relation to that benchmark.

For example, the fastest home run hit by Encarnacion in 2014 travelled at 115.5 mph off the bat. As a result it's "Speed Rating" was 100. If EE somehow managed to hit a lethargic 57.75 mph home run its Speed Rating would be 50. A home run going 86.625 would have a 75 Speed Rating and so on.

After ranking each home run in each category, I tallied up the overall AAI ratings. Without further ado, I present the three most awe-inspiring Encarnacion home runs of 2014.

Bronze Medal

Date: May 29th

Opposing Pitcher: James Shields

Count: 3-1

Men on Base: One

Game Result: Royals 8, Blue Jays 6

This home run absolutely flew off the bat and traveled 442 feet to deep left-centre field. It was the first of two home runs he would hit in the game, a game which ended up being one of the most heart-breaking losses of the season. The least impressive part of this home run is that it was hit off James Shields, a guy who just signed a contract worth $75 million. Edwin's third-greatest shot of the season would be a career highlight for most guys.

Silver Medal

Date: May 8th

Opposing Pitcher: A.J. Burnett

Count: 1-1

Men on Base: None

Game Result: Blue Jays 12, Phillies 8

This home run scores very similarly to the one above, it just went a bit farther with a distance of 455 feet. Although it is diminished slightly by the fact it came off an over-the-hill A.J. Burnett, on the flip side it's a little bit sweeter because it came off A.J. Burnett. It was also his 200th career home run, which makes it sweeter still.

Although it's hard to beat a milestone dinger off Burnett, the choice for the most majestic moonshot was head-and-shoulders above the competition by AAI.

Gold Medal

Date: September 5th

Opposing Pitcher: Alex Wilson

Count: 0-1

Men on Base: One

Game Result: Red Sox 9, Blue Jays 8

The opposing pitcher score is somewhat surprising here given that Alex Wilson is something of a no-name reliever, but he held right-hander hitters to .148/.193/.283 line last season including Encarnacion's shot here. The sample is small and unlikely to be reflective of true talent, but there is a good chance its representative of how hard Wilson was for a right-hander to hit in that moment.

Even if that score got bumped down a tad this home run was still a clear champion. The fact it left the building was a nice bonus, it being against Boston was great, the fact it was an in-season milestone is just the icing on the cake.

Before I leave you I thought I might include Encarnacion's least majestic home run, as determined by AAI, so you might have a better sense of perspective. Since all home runs are magical and should be treasured it shall be given the "34th place medal", which is probably a real medal that kids are getting at swim meets nowadays.

34th-Place Medal

Date: June 9th

Opposing Pitcher: Ricky Nolasco

Count: 1-1

Men on Base: Two

Game Result: Blue Jays 5, Twins 4

By no means is this the worst home run you're going to see. However, it is a wall-scraper without a ton of speed on it against a pretty ordinary pitcher. The fact the the ESPN Home Run Tracker figures it would leave only 16 MLB ballparks is a huge issue. Nonetheless, if you're a Blue Jays fan time spent watching that video wouldn't be the worst 37 seconds of your life.

After all of that I don't know if we've learned anything of real substance here, but I do think that bringing a little science to one of baseball's core aesthetics has some value. I also think that it's possible I've gotten Excel fever and created something no one is remotely interested in. It wouldn't be first time.

So, I'm going with a historic first and opening it up to a poll as I've watched enough "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire" to know about the wisdom of crowds.

2015: 1-5 | 6-10 |11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30 | 31-35 | 36-40

2014: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30 | 31-35 | 36-40

Most prospect lists that you see use rookie eligibility (130 AB / 50 IP, or 45 days service time excluding September) as the basis for inclusion/exclusion. This works as an objective standard, but especially beyond the Top 20 creates a conundrum between younger players with very low chances of making to the majors but with upside vs. older players who project as role players but who already have MLB time or are very close. In a sense, that latter group aren't really even prospects.

As Tom mentioned at the outset of this series, this year there was a formal age cutoff for inclusion on the BBB list: players had to be 25 or under on June 30th of this year, meaning born after 6/30/1989. That cut off a number of interesting players who aren't really prospects at this point, but who could be real contributors in 2015 or beyond. So here is a Top 5 list of rookie eligible players cutoff from the prospect list due to age:

1. Rob Rasmussen, LHP, age 25 (DOB: 4/2/1989)

Rasmussen was selected in the 2nd round (73th overall, more like the 3rd round now without a pile of supplemental picks) of the 2010 draft by the Marlins from UCLA, and signed for $499,500. At UCLA he was bounced between the bullpen and rotation his first two years with inconsistent results, before emerging with a huge junior season on the back of a strong 2009 summer in the Cape Cod League. In 109 innings, he struck out 135 while only walking 35 and allowing just 88 hits (though 10 HR), albeit overshadowed by Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer.

From 2011-13, he was primarily a starter, moving from high-A to AAA while also bouncing from the Marlins to the Astros to the Dodgers. His results were generally decent if unremarkable, with reports of a four pitch mix: a fastball that sat in the low 90s, a slider that Baseball America rated as the best in the Miami system after 2011, a curveball and the change-up. In college he used his curveball more than his slider, at some point that seemed to have flipped. Rasmussen was traded at the Aug. 31 trade deadline by LA to Philadelphia for Michael Young, and was added to the 40-man to protect him from the Rule 5. He was then flipped to the Jays for Brad Lincoln, never throwing a pitch for the Phillies.

At 5'10 / 170, Rasmussen is undersized compared to the average pitcher, which caused concerns about his ability to start as with Marcus Stroman. There were also questions about whether his stuff was good enough to start, and he also tended to have large platoon splits (which jives with his primary secondary being a slider). In 2014, he was used exclusively in relief with Buffalo, and turned in a solid season (44 K, 17 BB, 32 H, 0 HR in 43 IP) and earned the call-up. With Toronto, in a small sample of 11.1 innings, he struck out 13 with a strong 27% whiff rate but struggled with control, 7 BB and 2 HBP. Most encouragingly, his velocity had ticked up, averaging almost 94 with his fastball and touching 95.

Rasmussen was ranked 28th on the original list before the age cutoff was implemented, which places him atop this list. At 26 in a couple months and with the Jays' needs, one assumes he'll be exclusively a reliever going forward. But lefties who can sit in the mid-90s don't grow on trees, and if he can get his control in check he could be a middle relief option or better in 2015.

2. Ryan Tepera, RHP, age 27 (DOB: 11/3/1987)

We had a couple of scouts who identified him as a major league contributor, not just up-and-down, but someone with the tools and ability to stick in a big league capacity. He has a power arm and a power breaking ball. Our reports have him anywhere from 93 to 96 with a power curveball. He’s a competitor. He’s a converted guy so—I don’t know exactly how many years he’s been pitching—but it could be a fresher arm than someone who has been pitching his entire career in pro ball.

If he can figure out one primary secondary pitch to go to, whether it be a fork or split or one slider - don’t mess around with multiple breaking balls or multiple offspeed pitches—just go with one thing, trying to figure it out and fiddle with some grips and you never know what will happen.

Others: RHP Preston Guilmet, RHP Blake MacFarland, RHP Arik Sikula, RHP Wil Browning

We'll finish off this series over the next couple days with some personal favourites that missed the overall list, and looking back on movement from 2014 to 2015.

September 9th, 2008, and the first most important homer in team history.

Heading into play on September 9th, 2008, the Boston Red Sox trail the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL East by only a half game. The Red Sox have trimmed a 5 1/2 game deficit in only 2 weeks and are primed to take control of the division at Fenway, where the Rays have yet to win a game all year.

The Rays are reeling, having lost their previous 4 games in a row, including a walkoff loss to the Toronto Blue Jays on September 6th, when the Rays scored a go-ahead run in the 13th, only to lose in the bottom half of the inning when Troy Percival gave up a walkoff grand slam to Gregg Zaun.

The Rays offense has also been slumping. It has not scored in the previous 18 innings. Key offensive players like Evan Longoria, Carl Crawford, and B.J. Upton have been unable to play due to injuries.

The Boston Red Sox will send their Cy-Young award contender, Daisuke Matsuzaka, to the mound against the 1 of the Rays' 3 All Stars, Scott Kazmir. Here are the starting lineups:

Early Hole, Early Lead

Innings 1-3

In the top of the first, the Rays managed to get a baserunner thanks to a 2 out single from Carlos Pena. Matsuzaka was able to get out of the inning, while also recording 2 strikeouts. In the bottom half, Scott Kazmir was not as lucky.

Kazmir was able to record the first two outs of the inning on deep flyballs to Zobrist in center. Kazmir's nemesis, Dustin Pedroia, then lined a ball up the middle for a single. Boston cleanup batter, Kevin Youilis, came up and with a 0-2 count. Youkilis laced a deep drive to left-center field that hit the Green Monster on a bounce. Zobrist misplayed the carom, which allowed Predoia to scamper all the way around from 1st to score, giving the Red Sox an early 1-0 lead.

Kazmir stranded Youkilis on 2nd after a walk and a popout to close out the inning.

In the top of the 2nd, the first two Rays went down quickly again, but they were followed by back-to-back singles from Dioner Navarro and Gabe Gross, giving the Rays a chance to tie the game. Unfortunately, Matsuzaka worked out of it, getting Jason Bartlett to hit an infield pop fly to end the Rays half.

Kazmir set down the Sox in order in the bottom half of the 2nd, including a three-pitch strikeout of Jeff Bailey.

The top of the Rays order was up in the 3rd, and Akinori Iwamura bunted Dice-K's first pitch in front of home plate. Mike Lowell charged in on it, but Iwamura was safe at 1st with a leadoff bunt single. After that, Matsuzaka's troubled command appeared as he walked Zobrist and Pena, then followed that by drilling Cliff Floyd with a pitch to bring Iwamura home from 3rd to tie the game at 1-1.

After Floyd was hit, the bases were still loaded with none out for Willy Aybar, filling in excellently for injured rookie phenom, Evan Longoria. The count reached 2-1, when Aybar turned on one and sent it towards Pesky's Pole. Mark Kotsay went after it and was able to make the catch, a few feet from the wall. Ben Zobrist tagged from 3rd and scored easily, giving the Rays a 2-1 lead.

Carlos Pena also advanced to 3rd on the sacrifice fly, but he'd be stranded along with Floyd after Hinske lined out and Navarro grounded out to end the threat.

Kazmir had a quiet bottom half of the inning. He walked Lowrie on 9 pitches with 1 out, but would erase him thanks to a double play that ended the inning. After 3 innings of play, the Rays are in the lead, 2-1.

Holding On

Innings 4-6

Gabe Gross led off the 4th with an infield single to 2nd to give the Rays another leadoff baserunner. Jason Bartlett came up, and on Matsuzaka's first pitch, he ripped a groundball past Mike Lowell and 3rd and into the left field corner. Foley waived Gross around 3rd and the relay throw was just late as Gross slid in safely, meanwhile Bartlett was able to slide into 3rd safely thanks to the throw home. The Rays lead reached to 3-1.

With Bartlett at 3rd and none out, the Rays had a prime opportunity to add some more runs. Unfortunately, they failed to capitalize as the next four batters proceeded to groundout, strikeout, walk, and strikeout to end the inning and strand Bartlett.

Kazmir had been in a groove since the 1st and got two quick outs in the 4th when Mike Lowell stepped up. After a first pitch strike, Lowell turned on one and sent it deep to left field and into the Monster seats for his 16th HR of year and a 1-run game again.

Kazmir ended the inning by getting Kotsay to flyout.

In the top of the 5th, the Rays were able to have their first 2 batters reach bases, but that's all they'd get as Matsuzaka retired the next 3 batters without the ball ever leaving the infield, stranding the runners on 2nd and 3rd.

Kazmir opened the bottom half of the 5th with two pop ups on the left side of the infield, but then he allowed a single to Crisp and walked Lowrie. Thankfully, he managed to get Pedroia to fly out in right center field to end the inning.

Akinori Iwamura led off the 6th with a groundball through the right side for another leadoff single that also ended Matsuzaka's night after 5 innings. Javier Lopez came on in relief and retired 3 straight batters to end the half inning, stranding Iwamura on 2nd.

Kazmir had another quiet inning in the bottom half of the 6th, only allowing an infield single to Lowell, but also registering 2 more strikeouts. After 6 innings of play, the Rays held a slim 3-2 lead over Boston.

DanJo Rises

Innings 7-9

Willy Aybar led off the 7th by punching a groundball through the left side of the infield for a single. September callup, Fernando Perez pinch hit for Eric Hinske and worked a 6 pitch walk. After the walk, Manny Delcarmen replaced Lopez. Navarro was up and almost hit a 3 run HR, but it fell just short of the wall for a long out, and Delcarmen worked out of the inning to end another Tampa Bay threat.

In the bottom of the 7th, Grant Balfour took over after a solid outing from Kazmir. Balfour set down the Sox in order in the 7th, including a pinch-hitting David Ortiz.

After two quick outs in the top of the 8th, Hideki Okajima replaced Delcarmen and struck out Carlos Pena to end the Rays half of the 8th.

In the bottom half, Dan Wheeler took over for Balfour and was set to face the top of the Red Sox order. Wheeler came out dominant, striking out Lowrie on three pitches and working a groundout from Pedroia. Kevin Youkilis managed to work a walk to put a runner on 1st with 2 outs for Jason Bay.

At the trade deadline, the Rays were extremely close to acquiring Bay from Pittsburgh when Boston swooped and nabbed the outfielder from the Pirates.

After the count reached 1-1 on Bay, with Wheeler's next pitch, he hit a bullet that sailed just about the wall in left and into the seats for a devastating 2 run HR that gave the Red Sox and 4-3 lead in the bottom of the 8th. It was Bay's 29th HR of the year and it served as some form of nail that shut the coffin on the Rays chances of winning the division (even though there were still 3 weeks left in the season).

Wheeler ended the inning by getting Mike Lowell to ground out, but it seemed moot at that point, as the Red Sox were no doubt set to bring in their dominant closer, Jonathan Papelbon.

In the top of the 9th, Justin Ruggiano entered the game to pinch-hit for Cliff Floyd, only to be replaced by another pinch-hitter when Terry Francona swapped Okajima with Papelbon.

Ruggiano's pinch-hitter? Dan Johnson, who was recalled earlier that morning. Who was originally intended to start, but had to be scratched due to weather delaying his flights. Who arrived at the ballpark, only 20 minutes before the 1st pitch. Who was also 0-15 in his career as a pinch hitter and hadn't been in the big leagues since April.

Papelbon's first 3 pitches to Johnson were balls making the count 3-0. Johnson watched a pitch go by for a called strike then took a rip and fouled one straight back. With the count 3-2, Papelbon decided to try and challenge Johnson and blaze a fastball by him. The ball came in chest high and over the center of the plate, Johnson turned and smacked it. The ball soared through the Boston night sky and sailed over the Boston bullpen and into the seats in right-center.

As Johnson rounded the bases, the Fenway faithful had fallen an unusual silent after their dominant flame throwing closer had surrendered a home run that tied the game at 4-4. Meanwhile, Rays fans everywhere were praising Johnson for his heroics as he had just hit what could be the single greatest home run in team history.

Reactions right after DanJo's homer:

"THIS (expletive) AIN'T (expletive) OVER" - R.J. Anderson

"MY ROOMMATE THINKS I AM CRAZY BUT WHO GIVES A (expletive)" - SRQ MAN

"DANJO CAN PLAY LF ON MY TEAM ANY (expletive) DAY" - Sandy Kazmir

Although it seemed as if Johnson had given the Rays the lead, the score was only just tied at 4. Willy Aybar flew out, but then speedster Fernando Perez showed some power and hit a ball off the monster in left for a one-out double. Dioner Navarro, the Rays All Star catcher came up, and on a 0-1 pitch, Navarro laced a ball into the left field corner.

Perez dashed around 3rd and scored easily, and Navarro coasted into second with a double and a 5-4 Rays lead.

Navarro would be stranded at second as Paplebon was able to retire the next two batters, but the damage had been done as the Rays had taken a one-run lead heading into the bottom of the 9th.

Joe Maddon went to his veteran closer, Troy Percival who had been giving fans an incredible amount of stress during his outings. This time out would be no different.

Mark Kotsay led off the bottom of the 9th and worked a six-pitch walk to give Boston a leadoff runner. Percival settled down though and struck out Jason Varitek for the first out of the inning. David Ortiz, who instantly strikes fear into every single Rays fan, stepped up. After the count reached 3-1, Ortiz flew out to right field for the 2nd out of the inning, and Rays fans everywhere sighed in relief.

After the fly out, Jacoby Ellsbury pinch-ran for Kotsay, and he immediately took off for second. Navarro's throw skipped into center field and allowed Ellsbury to reach third bases with two outs as Coco Crisp stepped into the box. An errant throw would have tied the game at 5-5, but that wouldn't happen as Crisp popped out to Iwamura at second to end the game and securing the Rays lead atop of the AL East for at least two more games.

Source: FanGraphs

For a trip down memory lane:

http://www.draysbay.com/2008/9/9/611080/gdt-pt-2

http://www.draysbay.com/2008/9/9/611149/this-isn-t-over

Ben Nicholson-Smith tells us that Blue Jays catching prospect Max Pentecost has had shoulder surgery and he'll be unable to throw for 3 months, though he should be able to swing bat before then.

Dr. James Andrews performed the operation, a scope intended to clean out the shoulder joint of the top catching prospect's throwing arm. Pentecost previously had a shoulder cleanup after the 2014 season, but the operation didn't work as well as initially hoped.

It doesn't exactly full me with confidence that he's having the same surgery a second time so soon after the first one.

I really was hoping that Max would get a full season of baseball and move up a couple of spots on the Jays minor league ladder, but now I'll be happy if he just finishes the season healthy and shows he can stay healthy.

Max was number 5 on our prospects list. I'm already starting to worry that he'll be dropping a few spots on next year's list.

Marco Estrada Should Be Valuable

Whether or not Estrada "wins" the fifth spot in the Blue Jays' rotation, he should still provide plenty of value in 2015. Despite a very healthy rotation in 2014, the Blue Jays still gave a combined seventeen starts to Dustin McGowan, Brandon Morrow and Liam Hendriks. The team had a 5.48 ERA in these starts, with the pitcher often leaving the game early.

As any Jays fan should know, it is very rare for a team to make it through the season with just five starters. The Blue Jays had thirteen different starting pitchers in 2013, including Chien-Ming Wang, Aaron Laffey and Ramon Ortiz. Pitching depth can be extremely important.

After dominating the minors last season, Daniel Norris is likely to take the last spot in the rotation sooner rather than later. Even if Estrada joins the Blue Jays' bullpen at times throughout the season, I would bet on him making around twenty starts as the Jays' sixth starter. It is easy to overlook the value of a quality swingman, but let's not forget Estrada is likely to get over 100 innings in 2015.

The Blue Jays' Hitters Will Make You Throw A Strike

One thing that stands out for me with this team is their strong plate discipline. The stat "O-Swing %" measures how often a player swings at a pitch when it is out of the strike zone. I looked at O-Swing % for players during the 2013 & 2014 seasons. Among the 403 players that qualified, Ramon Santiago, Munenori Kawasaki, Michael Saunders and Jose Bautista all ranked within the top 50. Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion ranked within the top 100, while Justin Smoak posted an above average mark. Though recent acquisition Daric Barton did not qualify for the list, he posted the best mark in all of baseball between 2011 and 2012.

Many of the players who did not rank in the top 200 have since left the team. Colby Rasmus, Brett Lawrie, Juan Francisco, Melky Cabrera, Anthony Gose and Erik Kratz all posted below average marks. Dioner Navarro, who is no longer the starting catcher, also posted a below-average mark.

I am starting to wonder if this is a stat the Blue Jays' front office is really focusing on. The 2015 lineup seems poised to drive up pitch counts while taking their fare share of walks.

Many Players Could See A Home Run Spike

Another trend of the Blue Jays offseason has been acquiring players who have spent recent seasons in pitcher-friendly parks. Michael Saunders, Justin Smoak, Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson all seem capable of having twenty home run seasons, yet their home parks have not favoured the long ball in the past.

Mike Podhorzer of FanGraphs recently used information such as batted ball distances to find which players are not hitting as many home runs as you would expect.  Of the seven players on the list, two are recent Blue Jay acquisitions. Instead of playing in parks where fly balls go to die, these players could hit for much more power in the Rogers Centre. It definitely seems like the Blue Jays are utilizing batted ball distance to their advantage.

Not Spending Heavily On The Bullpen Is A Smart Decision

I actually really like what the Blue Jays have done with their bullpen, which of course is not much. With the volatility of relievers, spending heavily on the bullpen often is not a very good idea. Preston Guilmet looks like a very nice under the radar pickup. In AAA last season, Guilmet had very strong strikeout numbers while limiting walks, leading to a 2.63 SIERA. Guilmet should give the Jays a quality right-handed reliever for the league minimum salary.

Another pickup, Matt West, posted similar numbers to Guilmet in 2014. With Cecil, Sanchez and Loup already in the fold I would not overpay for a "proven closer". If Kyle Drabek and the 2014 version of Steve Delabar are forced onto the team, I will be much more concerned about the bullpen. Signing Joba Chamberlain or trading for Oliver Perez could be the finishing touch, but I would keep some money for an in-season pickup.

The Order Of The Pitching Rotation

I know it is early, but I wanted to talk about the order of the pitching rotation. The Blue Jays have two off days in April, one of which is right after opening day. There are a ton of games against division rivals to start the season, so the order of the rotation could end up being fairly important. As it stands, here are April's match-ups for each spot in the rotation:

In my opinion, the biggest games appear to be against Boston and Baltimore. The 3^rd spot in the rotation never plays against either team, while the 2^nd spot only faces Boston once. The first and fifth spots get either Boston or Baltimore three times, so these spots should have the best pitchers. It should also be noted that the 2^nd spot in the rotation is expected to pitch for the home opener.

If Marcus Stroman does not get the ball on opening day, it may be wise to have him be the 5^th starter. If Marco Estrada makes the rotation, I'd probably like to make him the 3^rd starter. Some may say it is too early to talk about these things, but feel free to discuss how you would order the rotation in the comments!