Baseball folks are mostly convinced Jeff Samardzija will be swimming in another uniform. Is that a good idea? Is it a sign the rebuild will get longer? If it does, fear not, long-time Cub fans. You'll experience a Cub WS title from the afterlife!

Cub Tracks will have some AFL wrap-up in Tuesday's edition.

From Comcast SportsNet

• New York Yankees' GM Brian Cashman never thought Joe Girardi would leave for the Cubs. Of course he didn't.
• Meanwhile, Theo Epstein has mixed emotions about the latest World Series title for his former employer, the Boston Red Sox.
• The Cubs are in a position to deal this winter, starting with Jeff Samardzija.

From Cubs Den

• The Cubs don't need to spend a bunch of money indiscriminately to prove their market status. After all, it's not the size of your market, it is how you use it.
  
• Notes part 1: the Blue Jays are interested in Jeff Samardzija, Matt Wieters may be available, Jacoby Ellsbury, and could a prospect swap with the Miami Marlins be in the works?
• Notes part 2: trying to land a big fish, gambling on Ellsbury, more news from Japan, and Shark rumors get hot.

• Nothing new.
  

From the Chicago Sun-Times

• Gordo thinks Jeff Samardzija could be on the way out.

From the Daily Herald

• Bruce Miles has an update on the search to find Pat Hughes' partner, as noted by Al on Saturday.
  

Today's food for thought

• Everyone chips in here at Cub Tracks. My wife thought you'd like to know how common your birthday is.
• If you'd prefer to see the light, a scientist claims he has proven there is an afterlife.

Astros links including the Astrodome, Bo Porter, and the Civil Rights Game.

Good morning boys and girls, how is your Sunday? We wait with the calm before the free-agent storm arrives. For the time being, here are some links for your viewing pleasure.

So Long, Farewell, RIP to the Astrodome
I have a memory of the Astrodome that I want to share. Of a Friday night in May of 1993,...

Six prospects nominated for Stenson Award
The main focus of the Arizona Fall League is to help prospects in the final stages of their development. It gives extra at-bats, defensive reps and innings to players hoping to make the jump to the Major Leagues. While refining skills is the point of emphasis, the AFL also honors one player each year for qualities unrelated to on-field performance.

Bo and Stacey Porter to host 'A Legacy Lasts Forever Dinner' charity dinner
Bo and Stacey Porter will host the "A Legacy Lasts Forever Dinner," which will benefit the Bo Porter S.E.L.F. Foundation. The foundation is funding afterschool programs at three middle schools in Houston.

Astros, Blue Jays negotiate change in spring training site
The Astros met with the Blue Jays on Thursday, the final day of the owner’s meetings, to discuss plans for a shared spring-training site in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. Astros owner Jim Crane said both that discussion and one with the Cardinals on Wednesday night was productive.

Nolan Ryan has talked with Astros owner, no current job offer
Nolan Ryan and Astros owner Jim Crane have talked since Ryan left the Rangers, but Ryan has not been offered a position with the organization.

Astros to host annual Civil Rights Game in 2014
Hall of Famer Frank Robinson and Mayor Annise Parker will join Astros owner Jim Crane on Tuesday at Minute Maid Park to announce that the Astros have been awarded baseball’s annual Civil Rights Game.

Astros prospect Joe Sclafani fine tuning his game in Australia
Several Astros players and prospects are playing winter ball this offseason. One of those players that you may not be familiar with is Joe Sclafani. Sclafa

The Blue Jays signed Mark DeRosa on January 22nd.

I guess he fills Omar Vizquel's role of 'old guy on the bench who we don't want to see in games'. He is a right-handed batter which Alex Anthopoulos sai he wanted for the 25th man.

To make room the Jay have designated 'best stuff in the system' Sam Dyson for assignment.

He was signed to be the good guy in the clubhouse and to be Brett Lawrie's babysitter. I'm not a big fan of the idea of a clubhouse chemistry, I figure winning takes care of that, but he is credited with helping Lawrie. I wish I could my $750,000 for doing something that can't be measured. Maybe he did help Brett. Brett seems to think so.

In our prediction thread, we all guessed he would play far fewer games than he actually did. We hoped he wouldn't be needed very much. Those that don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it. And we keep repeating it. I thought he'd play 45 games and hit 220/.290/.240.

He did hit much better than I thought.

Fangraphs has him at a 0.1 WAR making him worth $600,000 to the Jays, not all that much off what they paid him.

He had a BABIP of .272, a little below his career number of .306.  He walked a little more (11.9% up from 8.7%) and struck out a little more (20.8%, up from 17.3%) than his career numbers.

Most of his 'batted ball' numbers from 2013 were close to his career numbers. Line drives (20.3%, career 20.6), ground balls (45.6%, career 45.3) and fly balls (34.2%, career 34.1). More of his fly balls left the park than normal (13.0%, up from 10.2 career).

As usual, he hit LHP (.267/.368/.443) much much better than RHP (.178/.247/.342). He ended up playing too much against right-handers.

He hit with more power at home (.210/.289/.450 with 5 home runs), but got on base better on the road (.260/.366/.405 with 2 home runs).

Mark was pretty good with RISP, .276/.375/.466.

By month:

April: .161/.263/.323 with 1 home run, 6 RBI in 31 at bats.

May: .243/.333/.514 with 2 home run, 12 RBI in 37 at bats.

June: .216/.310/.324 with 1 home run, 3 RBI in 37 at bats.

July: .294/.368/.647 with 3 home runs, 6 RBI in 34 at bats.

August: .152/.256/.242 with 4 RBI in 33 at bats.

September: .344/.432/.375 with 5 RBI in 32 at bats.

July was fun was it.

On defense he played a bunch of spots:

• Third base: 154 innings, 4 errors, .915 fielding average. -31.6 UZR/150.
• Second base: 152.2 innings, 0 errors, 1.000 fielding average. 2.1 UZR/150.
• First base: 96.0 innings, 0 errors, 1.000 fielding average. 9.1 UZR/160.
• Left field: 1 inning.

He looked horrible at third base early in the season. I really didn't want to see him play second base but he did look better there. He talked about it being tough getting used to the speed of the turf. He played most of his third base early in the season, so maybe we can credit the big negative UZR to learning the field. Might as well say it again, the Jays really should have, at least, a practice field in Dunedin with the same kind of turf as they have at Rogers Centre. I remember Evan Longoria has some troubles fielding at Rogers. He made 4 official errors in 9 games, and if my memory is right, he had more troubles that weren't deemed errors.

The Jay were 23-29 in games Mark started.

His longest hitting streak was 4 games, longest on base streak was 6 games.

His favorite team to face? Well, he went 4 for 6 with a double and a home run in 2 games against the Dodgers. He did great in Inter-league games, hitting .395/.439/.658 in 14 games against the NL.

His least favorite team to face? Mark was 0 for 15 with a walk in 4 games against the White Sox.

I'll admit I had a hard time warming up to DeRosa. He looked awful playing third base at the start of the season, when Brett Lawrie was hurt. And then, Buck and Pat talked about him being a 'professional hitter' seemingly during every one of his 236 plate appearances.  As much as their idiocy wasn't his fault, I had a hard time not holding that against him. Please, Buck, Pat, next season make sure you have more than one thing to say about each player when they are up at the plate. Don't say the same thing every frigging time.

In reality, he was a good guy, a fun interview and really not a bad player. He just played too much. When a guy has as long a career as DeRosa has had, without being a particularly good player, you can bet he is a good guy. Careers like that don't happen for bad guys. He seemed to enjoy Munenori Kawasaki.

We could have done a lot worse with the veteran presence guy. I mean, we had Kevin Millar in that role not long ago.

I'm sure he'll be very good as a baseball commentator.

I wonder who will fill the role of 'old guy that plays too much' for the Jays next season.

This was in Nick Cafardo's column in the Boston Globe today:

6. Jose Bautista, RF, Blue Jays - Rumors that Bautista could be dealt for pitching have persisted for a couple of offseasons but the Blue Jays haven't wanted to break up the Bautista-Edwin Encarnacion dynamic in the middle of the order. The Jays are desperate for at least two starting pitchers and dealing Bautista may land them one. "It's a name we're hearing through backchannels right now, but wouldn't be surprised if he's available" said an NL general manager. Bautista was one of Farrell's personal favorites in Toronto, however it's doubtful the Blue Jays would deal within the division - even though the Red Sox have extra pitching.

I think everyone is always available, if the deal is right, but to trade Bautista would open a hole in the middle of the batting order and in right field, so you'd have to get something very good back.

And no, he will not be traded to the Red Sox. That one I'm sure about.

What would you want to get in return for Jose?

Casey Janssen has been just the model of consistency, over the past 4 years,  for the Jays. In 2012, after Francisco Cordero failed miserably, they finally settled on Janssen as closer. He did great, saving 22 games, with 3 blown saves.

This year he started the season with the closer's job. We had a poll asking who would have the most saves, Casey or Sergio Santos. 62% were right.

He had 2 blown saves and 1 hold.

Fangraphs has him at a 1.3 WAR, giving him a $6.5 million value to the Jays.

Casey's FIP was 2.74, xFIP 3.09. His BABIP was .254, up a bit from his .240 in 2012.

His strikeout rate was down a little from 2012 (8.54/9 innings, down from 9.47). Walks were up (2.22/9, up from 1.55). Home run rate down (0.51/9, down from 0.99).

He gave up about the same amount of line drives (22.5%, up from 21.3). Ground balls were up (47.9%, up from 42.5). Fly balls down (29.6%, down from 36.3). Fewer of the fly balls left the park (7.1%, down from 12.1). Fewer fly balls and fewer of them leaving the park is a good combination.

A right-handed pitcher, he was better vs. RHB (.135/.188/.270) than LHB (.244/.300/.319).

Not surprisingly, he was better on the road (1.13 ERA, .153/.200/.224) than at home (3.77, .241/.300/.361).

By month:

April: 1.00 ERA, 7 saves, batters hit .100/.100/.100 in 9 innings.

May: 3.38 ERA, 4 saves, batters hit .200/.226/.367 in 8 innings.

June: 1.86 ERA, 2-0, 6 saves, batters hit .182/.243/.273 in 9.2 innings.

July: 3.52 ERA, 2-0, 1 save, batters hit .200/.333/.267 in 7.2 innings.

August: 4.22, 0-1, 8 saves, batters hit .302/.354/.442 in 10.2 innings.

September: 1.17, 8 innings, batters hit .185/.214/.296 in 7.2 innings.

A pretty consistent season, there weren't many saves to be had in July. Considering he had a sore shoulder, most of the year, he was pretty good.

Casey has always been a favorite around here. I figured he would be traded at the deadline. Then I figured he'd be traded this off-season. As a fan, I hope he stays around, I like watching him. But I think he is one of our better trade chips. We have plenty of guys that could handle the closer role, if we can get something for Casey, we should, but I would miss him.

Toronto-based artist Steve Preisman, along with friends Jason Yurichuk, and Patrick Lo, present a redesigned version of the Blue Jays logo on Preisman's website. Preisman's logo features a stylized blue jay (one that is more realistic-looking than the current logo) sitting on large cursive "J's". Several versions are included, one on a baby blue background, one on a white background, a couple greyscale versions, and a red Canada Day version.

Preisman tells me by email that he created these logos to "make some cool hats" and that he is emphatically not trying to replace the current logo. He is a fan of the current logo, although he does not like how the maple leaf is not connected to the logo (something that I agree with) and that some of the edges and corners "stand to be cleaned up a bit".

Priesman describes that he took aspects of the design from the "Detroit Tigers logo of the mid-nineties, and the more timeless Oakland A's and St. Louis Cardinals logos." I think that Priesman does that aspect especially well.

I am a big fan of the current logo because of its simplicity and because it harkens back to the original team logo from 1977. It is so immediately recognizable that no letters are needed to identify it with the team. As a fan on Twitter pointed out, while "A's" work for the Athletics, I don't believe that "J's" work very well because their short name is not the "J's" their shortened name is the "Jays".  Preisman tells us that his plan is to put some of these designs on snap-back caps. I might just buy one anyway due to my obsession with baseball caps.

Also: Steve Preisman was the lucky recipient of one of Edwin Encarnacion's many flying bats.

Hat tip to BlogTO for bringing this to our attention and Preisman for responding to requests for questions.

Despite being a central part in the big Marlins deal that happened just a calendar year ago, the Blue Jays decided to decline offering starting pitcher Josh Johnson a qualifying offer at the end of the season. Henry Schulman reported that the 29-year-old free agent told San Francisco Giants and the San Diego Padres that they were "his first choice" because it is close to his home in Las Vegas.

Industry sources tell me FA starter Josh Johnson let the #sfgiants and #padres know early on they were his first choice, close to Vegas home

— Henry Schulman (@hankschulman) November 18, 2013

Josh Johnson was brought in as a front-of-the-rotation starter but was very disappointing, as Tom Dakers described in a season recap. Maybe, in addition to the distance to his home, Johnson prefers the Giants and Padres for their ballparks, which hold in fly balls much better than the Rogers Centre. Johnson gave up 11 homers in five games pitched in Toronto.

After Johnson's season was declared to be over, his agent Matt Sosnick told the media that he expects his pitcher to get "a base of $10 million or above" and that Johnson was not interested in a multi-year contract at this point. Johnson felt, at that point at least, that he had "unfinished business" in Toronto. Of course, Johnson had not ruled out returning to the Blue Jays, only that he would prefer to move back to the National League and into large parks.

Back on October 1 we polled readers on whether they would like to see the Blue Jays to re-sign Josh Johnson, and 82% of readers said "Yes". Let's do a re-poll.

In spite of what people might say, the fact that the Giants signed Tim Hudson does not mean the Jays should have extended a Qualifying Offer to Josh Johnson.

Reports are in that free agent starter Tim Hudson has signed with the San Francisco Giants for 2 years / $23 M. I've already seen a bunch of folks saying Hudson's situation is pretty comparable to Josh Johnson's. Given a fairly frequent estimate that an additional contract year tends to reduce a contract's average annual value around $2 M (though this doesn't work as well between one- and two-year deals), the contract that Hudson signed would essentially be a two-year qualifying offer.

So, material equivalence ought to dictate that Johnson will get a contract similar to Hudson's. As his agent said that multi-year deals were essentially out of the question, we're looking at something like 1 yr / $13.5 M. Given how split the folks on this site were on their predictions of whether the Jays would extend (68% said yes, 32% said no), it may not come as a surprise that Johnson seems to be on the brink of being offered a deal right in line with what a Qualifying Offer would have been. So should the Jays have made that offer? Well, the topic of whether the Jays should have extended Johnson a Qualifying Offer (1 yr / $14.1) was covered pretty extensively here and I'm not going to rehash the same argument. Instead, I'll rehash a new argument.

Assuming you haven't been Eternal Sunshined, you likely remember Johnson's miserable season (81 IP, 6.20 ERA). However, Johnson's peripherals (9.2 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 45% gb-rate) were largely in line with his career norms (8.3 K/9, 3 BB/9, 47% gb-rate), suggesting a pitcher who was victimized by some very bad luck on balls in play and balls in the air (.356 BABIP, 18.5% HR/fly). Bad luck on balls in play also likely contributed to Johnson's 63% strand-rate and Johnson's season actually looks just fine by xFIP (3.58) and SIERA (3.73). Johnson obviously missed a lot of time to injury and it's possible that those injuries were affecting his pitching before he hit the Disabled List.

So how is Johnson like Hudson?

1) Like Johnson, Hudson is looking to bounce back from a season where he missed a bunch of playing time (Hudson made 21 starts);

2) Like Johnson, Hudson's an historically very good pitcher who underperformed his peripherals in 2013 (3.97 / 3.46 / 3.56 by ERA / FIP / xFIP); and

3) Like Johnson, Hudson was a free agent who was not extended a qualifying offer. Again, you can see why a lot of folks might think these two pitchers are comparable.

However, if you dig even just a little bit deeper, you'll likely find those similarities are generally superficial.

First, it's true that both pitchers are returning from injuries but Hudson's generally been quite healthy aside from last season's broken ankle and a Tommy John surgery in 2008. While that does presume a bit of "Aside from that unpleasantness in the third act, Mrs. Lincoln, how'd you like the play?" sentiment, provided that Hudson heals up as he's expected to and can plant his foot with aplomb, those injuries should be behind him. Johnson's been an injury risk pretty much his whole career, managing 20 starts just four times since he became a regular back in 2006.

Second, Hudson and Johnson are very different pitchers who are likely to follow very different career paths. Hudson's very much in the Derek Lowe mold: he limits free passes (2.2 BB/9 career) and he strikes out his fair share (6.0 K/9 career) but he's really made his living keeping the ball down (58.5% gb-rate since 2002). Like Lowe, Hudson may be able to remain effective through his late-30's. I think of Hudson as a cross between Lowe and Roy Halladay, who, incidentally, may be the subject of another article by another writer. He's been impressively consistent, maintaining an FIP between 3.38 and 3.83 in all but three seasons since 2001 (the exceptions were 2005, 2006, and 2010). Johnson's a power pitcher whose ceiling was much higher than Hudson's but whose best days could very well be behind him. Hudson may be 7 1/2 years Johnson's senior but he's a better bet to pitch a full season. Steamer projects Hudson to pitch 182 innings in 2014 and Johnson to pitch just 144.

Third, San Francisco may have overpaid for Hudson and the Giants have been operating at a higher payroll than the Jays for years. According to Cot's, in 2013, when payroll spiked up 40%, the Jays were at roughly $120 M. The Giants have been operating at that level since 2011 and were at $140 M last season. And, while both teams had dreadful seasons last year, the Giants did win the World Series in 2012 and 2010. What makes sense for the Giants might not make sense for the Jays. Though I do have to admit, while I'm not sure that it'd've been worthwhile to try to beat the Giants' offer to Hudson, the northpaw's knack for getting worm-burners sure might have been a nice fit in the hitter-friendly Dome.

Thanks to garage rock band Grand Champeen's "Miss Out" which inspired today's title.

Over at ESPN (subscription required), Jim Bowden suggested a 'move' (trade or free agent signing) for each team in the AL. Here is what he suggests for the Jays:

The Move: Trade Brett Cecil, Ryan Goins, Matt Dean and Anthony Gose to the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for second baseman Brandon Phillips and backup catcher Ryan Hanigan.

From the Jays side, I don't mind it that much. We aren't giving up a lot. we have lots of bullpen arms. Goins doesn't have a lot of trade value, as much as I'd like to keep him around as a utility infielder. Dean is years away from the majors. Gose I like having around, he can fill in at any of the outfield spots, but I'm not sure he'd got a great major league career ahead.

As much as I don't see the appeal of Ryan Hanigan, offensively his entire value seems to come from hitting in front the the pitcher. Last year he hit .198/.306/.261, with 29 walks, 9 of them intentional. If you take out the intentional walks, his OBP drops to .281. The question is 'how many of his other walks were semi-intentional.

He had a much better line in 2012, .274/.365/.338, but with 13 intentional walks. without the intention walks that OBP drops to .341. Again, the question against is how many of the other walks were semi intentional. With no power at all, no one is going to intentionally walk, or pitch around him in the AL.

But then, a good glove and some OBP from the catcher's spot would be an improvement over what we've had..

Brandon Phillips would be a huge upgrade at second base, he's good defensively (4 Gold Gloves), he's had 18 home runs in each of the past 4 seasons (what are the odds). He is coming off a poor season with the bat, .261/.310/.396, but his career numbers are nice, .271/.320/.429. He's just 32. He's owed $50 million over the next 4 seasons, not too bad.

The Blue Jays would love to have Jose Reyes and Phillips together up the middle, which would arguably become the best defensive double-play combination in the game.

I'm not sure I agree with the second half of that, I don't think they would be the best defensive pairing up the middle but they would be massively better than what we had last year.

Anyway, from the Blue Jays side, I'd do thing. I'm not sure I'd do it if I was the Reds. Let's have a poll.

Jeff Passan at Yahoo sports is reporting that Josh Johnson has agreed on a $8 million guaranteed contract with $1.25 million in incentives with the San Diego Padres. The Padres have a $4 million team option for 2015,  that will trigger only if Josh makes fewer than 7 starts in 2014. That is  a cool idea..

I figured $8 million was going to be the magic number.

San Diego is a good choice for Johnson, a big ball park, a tough place to hit home runs. As you likely remember (if you are like me, you remember everyone of them) Josh gave up 15 home runs in 81.1 innings as a Blue Jay. 11 of those home runs were hit at Rogers Centre. So you can understand why he would want to pick somewhere else to pitch. I would point out that Josh had a 7.59 ERA on the road and a 5.29 ERA at Rogers. But it would be tough to find a bigger park than Petco

Josh is intent on building up his value for 2015, when he'll be a free agent again (provided he makes at least 7 starts), so there was no way he would have signed a similar contract with the Jays. Pitching in a huge park, in the NL, He might have been able to get more money from some other team, but he does want to maximize his stats this year. It is likely a smart move for Josh.

Bye Josh, I wish I could say it was fun, but it was about as far from fun as you could get.

Adam Linds ability to hit baseballs is incredibly dependent on which hand the guy throwing them at him uses. Who will the Blue Jays turn to when a southpaw takes the mound in 2014?

Approximately nine years and four months ago the Toronto Blue Jays spent the 83^rd pick of 2004 draft on an outfielder out of the University of South Alabama named Adam Lind. Since that time Blue Jays fans have witnessed a rollercoaster of a career that has involved some pretty impressive heights and some pretty demoralizing lows. Last season Adam Lind put up a .288/.357/.497 line for after three years of very poor production. This surge was somewhat unexpected, and in most cases that kind of shift in career path would have a player labelled as a complete enigma. However, in many ways Adam Lind is the least mysterious player there is. When it comes to evaluating Adam Lind as a hitter (which is basically all he is given he is a substandard defensive 1B who plays a lot of DH) there are really only two things to know:

1. Adam Lind mashes right handed pitching

2. Adam Lind tests the boundaries of ineptitude against left handed pitching

This is not a profound observation. It is one that has been made for many years now. The statements above are the equivalent of saying that the sun rises in the East or that John Farrell doesn't have a lot of fans in Toronto. Adam Lind doesn't have platoon splits so much as he has a platoon chasm. In his career said chasm looks something like this:

In 2013 the contrast was even more extreme:

This is all old news. Adam Lind is quite simply the perfect candidate to be platooned. Luckily, last year the Blue Jays had not one but two men for that job. Both Mark DeRosa and Rajai Davis were available to spell Lind and both were excellent against southpaws in 2013 (125 wRC+ and 137 wRC+ respectively). Unfortunately, neither of those players will be back in 2014. Despite the fact Mark DeRosa had his option for 2014 picked up by the Blue Jays he has ridden off into the sunset of retirement while Rajai Davis is looking to test free agency in search of a starting job. Although the needs the Blue Jays have at second base, catcher and in their rotation are their most important and most publicized, the departure of DeRosa and Davis have left a hole that absolutely must be filled in 2014. No one wants to see Adam Lind send to the slaughter at the hands of pitchers like John Lester, Matt Moore or David Price this year. That's just cruelty.

As a result, I thought I would look at a couple of platoon partner options the Blue Jays might consider for this year. In the name of variety one of the options is internal, one is a free agent and one might be available by trade. For each candidate there are two pertinent questions:

1. Can they punish left handers?

2. How much are they going to cost?

We begin with the in-house option. The Blue Jays have a great deal of right handed thump in their everyday lineup but very little when it comes to their reserves. As a result the internal option is not necessarily the most appealing. However, should the Jays choose to make do with what they've got, Moises Sierra could be an interesting option. According to Gregor Chisholm he is even taking ground balls at 1st base to possibly prepare for the job. Moises Sierra has not logged very many plate appearances in the major leagues, so all of his numbers come with an official "small sample size" warning. That being said, here's how his splits look so far in his major league career:

These splits are pretty significant, especially when you consider how Sierra's numbers against right handers are propped up by a high BABIP number. The sample size here is a little bit small to say if Sierra can carry one side of a DH platoon, if anything it's more of an indictment of his ability to hit same handed pitching. The idea of putting Sierra at DH against left handers is appealing in that it keeps him out of the field, where he often seems out to lunch, and it keeps him away from tough right handed pitchers he may not be able to handle. In that sense it could be a good situation for Sierra, but the best situation for him might not be the best situation for the team. As a platoon DH/1B Sierra would be expected to produce quite a bit with the bat and it's unclear as to whether he has that kind of production in him. That brings us to the questions:

1. Can he punish left handers?

It's kind of unclear. Maybe. His career numbers against lefties so far are solid, but virtually meaningless. He has shown the same issues with right handers that Rajai Davis did in terms of chasing the off-speed stuff low and away and that isn't nearly as much of an issue with southpaws. However, it's a stretch to think that because he shares Davis's weakness he also shares his strengths. Ultimately there is far too much uncertainty here.

2. What does he cost?

Nothing. More specifically, the league minimum. The benefit of going with Sierra, or someone else internal like Kevin Pillar (Pillar hit .387/.400/.645 against left handers at Buffalo, the main reason I have Sierra over him is that Sierra is out of options), is that there is no prospect cost or payroll boost. Though given that we are talking about bench players here neither of those costs is going to be particularly prohibitive.

Moving on to the second option on the list we have a potential free agent addition. There are quite a few right handed bench bat options floating around in the free agent pool such as old friends Reed Johnson and Casper Wells, but we are looking for a guy who can produce DH/1B numbers against southpaws and the best guy out there is Jeff Baker. PH/1B/2B (according to baseball-reference.com) Jeff Baker isn't exactly a household name but he did put up a pretty solid year in 2013 for the Rangers. Deployed almost exclusively against left handers Bakers put up a .279/.360/.545 line which was good for a 143 wRC+. Baker didn't only dominate left handed pitching in 2013; he has been doing it for a while:

The 32-year-old Baker, much like Mark DeRosa, also adds value with positional versatility. In 2013 he played every position on the diamond for the Rangers except for shortstop, centre field and catcher. Baker is a proven commodity who could fill this role. The only real issue is his health. Last year he ended the season with a sports hernia issue that relegated him to DH work and pinch hitting down the stretch. It's somewhat ambiguous as to where he stands now. If he opts for surgery he could be out for a chunk of the season, and out of luck as a free agent. Given that he is coming off a pretty solid season he might opt to keep rehabbing it and trying to play through it in order to score a contract. The outcome remains to be seen. The baseball world waits with bated breath. As to the questions:

1. Can he punish left handers?

Yes.

2. What will he cost?

Probably not a great deal. If Baker is healthy and ready to go I wouldn't mind tossing the million or two it would cost to sign him. If his health remains a question mark perhaps you could work out a deal at the veteran minimum with incentives.

Last but not least is a potential trade target. Although it may feel like salt in the wound to enter into another trade with the Miami Marlins, Justin Ruggiano would be a good fit for the role of designated southpaw assassin. Ruggiano is coming off a season where he was worth 0.9 WAR over 472 PA starting for the Marlins. Due to the fact that Miami miscast him as a starter he put up an unimpressive .222/.298/.396 line on the season. At the trade deadline there where quite a few rumors about Ruggiano and it looks like he may be on the trading block again. This makes sense given that the Marlins are trying to clear the way for the host young outfielders they have on the way. Hidden beneath Ruggiano's uninspiring 2013 total statistics was his mastery against opposite handed pitchers:

Along with his consistent excellence versus LHP, Ruggiano brings the ability to play all three outfield positions meaning that he could play left field and leave Cabrera to DH if Cabrera's injuries were still bothering him. In many ways Ruggiano is an ideal 4^th outfielder to go along with his potential as a Lind platoon partner. He's much like Rajai Davis in that way, although with more power and less speed. The questions beckon:

1. Can he punish left handers?

In all likelihood. His track record isn't that long but last year he was able to be effective against left handed pitching even without the BABIP love that fueled his breakout season in 2012.

2. What will he cost?

This is a good question. If Miami is marketing him as the player he appeared to be in 2012 there is no way the Blue Jays should make a move. However, if they sell Ruggiano as a quality 4^th outfielder then perhaps he is more in this team's price range. The Blue Jays should not be parting with any piece of much future or present significance to get Ruggiano, but if they can get him at a reasonable rate he's worth considering.

Adam Lind is now without his platoon partners from 2013. In 2014 the Blue Jays will have to go in a different direction. The options I've outlined here all come with their uncertainties. It's unclear whether any of the internal candidates can handle the job. It's unclear whether the top free agent platoon bat will be healthy. It's also unclear what the Marlins might want for Justin Ruggiano. No one is losing a lot of sleep over the loss of Mark DeRosa, but he played a role on this team that needs to be filled. It's not certain as to who will be the man to fill that role, but one thing is clear: Adam Lind needs some help.

Late add....give us your own choices for the 5, copy and paste the following into a comment, and give us your choices:

Must keep --

Should keep --

Neutral --

Should trade --

Must get rid of --

The SB Nation baseball blogs are each doing a post today on the off-season's 5 most pivotal players for their respective teams.

Here is our entry:

Must Keep: Jose Reyes

I don't believe in the idea of an untouchable player, I'd trade anyone if the deal was right, but Jose Reyes is as close as the Jays have to an untouchable player. There are only a handful of real 'leadoff' men in baseball. He gets on base at a decent rate and he steals bases. If Reyes was traded, I don't know who we'd use to lead off but he wouldn't be near as good as Reyes.

MLB Rotation: 5 pivotal players

We asked our SB Nation MLB team blogs to identify their team's five most pivotal players. Here's what they said.

Also, as much as I don't think Jose is a great defensive shortstop, I don't see anyone else in the Jays' system that is ready to play short at the major league level. Well, I'm sure Goins could do the job defensively, but I think he'd struggle to hit .220. So, I don't think the Jays should consider trading Reyes.

Brett Lawrie would also be a good choice. Being Canadian, he might have a value more value to the Blue Jays than he could have for any other team.

Should Keep: Jose Bautista

There are plenty of rumors that the Jays are looking to trade Jose Bautista, and sometimes, when there are that many rumors, they have something behind them. In this case, I think there are a number of writers that would like Jose on their team, so they figure starting a rumor will help that happen. There aren't many players like Bautista. Not many guys that you can count on putting up 40 home runs in a season (if healthy). Not many guys that will take 80-100 walks in a season. As always, if you can get someone to overpay for the guy, sure trade him, but, if we are planning to win, it would be hard to replace him. Unless you got someone back in a trade, we'd be looking at Moises Sierra and/or Anthony Gose in RF, that would be a huge downgrade. It would be tough to bring players back that would improve the team enough to make up for that drop off.

Neutral: Adam Lind

Yeah, they could trade Adam, but I don't see that he'd have much value. Players without a defensive position rarely have much trade value. Lind is a handy guy for us. Against right-handers, he's a very useful bat. Yeah, it would be better if he could hit lefties, but but none of us are perfect. If they trade him, I'd likely shrug my shoulders and move on.

Should Trade: Casey Janssen

Casey is the name I put in, but really, the Jays should trade whatever reliever can get them the best return. If a team wanted Brett Cecil more than Casey, go for it. If you could make a better deal for Steve Delabar, trade him. If was GM of the Tigers or any other team that needed a reliever in the back end of the pen, I'd ask about Delabar. I think Delabar could easily be a lights out closer, if given a chance.

But I picked Janssen because he has that 'proven closer' smell that is so important to some GMs. Casey has been very consistent over the last few years. He's great, any team would love to have him. I like having him, but I think his trade value would be higher than his value to the team. We have 3 or 4 other guys that could slide into the closer role without us skipping a beat.

Must Get Rid Of: J.P. Arencibia

You knew what I was going to say for this one. JP, I really do love you man, but it is time to go. I still do think there is a lot of talent buried in there, somewhere, but I don't think it is going to come out as a Blue Jay. He seems to have dug his heels in and is bound and determined not to grow as a hitter. A trade might be enough of a shock to the system that he would understand that he has to change things.

Beyond his inability to draw a walk, catch a ball, make a throw, make a tag, I'd have to think the Jays would be tired of, how to put it, the entire JP experience. Whining about how mean Gregg and Dirk are being to him, the whole #getusedtoit crap and the whole 'run producer' thing, all that has to be wearing thin on his employers. I mean, if you are a good player, I'm willing to overlook a little bit of off the field troubles, but if you have a negative WAR, you better not be causing PR problems for the team.

More from Bluebird Banter:

Follow @bluebirdbanterFollow @SBNationMLB

• Josh Johnson is signing with the Padres
• A Blue Jays-Reds trade proposal: Brandon Phillips and Ryan Hanigan for Brett Cecil, Ryan Goins, Anthony Gose, and Matt Dean
• If You Think It's Lame, Well, You Miss Out: San Francisco Giants Sign Tim Hudson, He's Not Josh Johnson
• Toronto artist redesigns Blue Jays logo
• The Season That Was: Casey Janssen
• Speculating on a possible Jose Bautista trade

The Miami Marlins are better off now than they were before they made the 2012 fire sale trade with the Toronto Blue Jays, The team made the right baseball decision in a vacuum, but the move was still detrimental in other manners.

Yesterday, last season's devastating Miami Marlins - Toronto Blue Jays fire sale trade was officially confirmed by the Commissioner's office and executed. The Fish sent away a healthy chunk of players and salary directly to the Blue Jays in return for a cache of prospects that, at the time of the trade, seemed underwhelming. Miami attempted to sell the prospects as the key to the franchise's future, and it continues to do so in order to justify the trade.

A year later, Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill understands why people were upset. He also noted several of the returning pieces in the deal are core pieces to the organization pushing forward.

"It's always tough when you move talented players," Hill said. "They were established players in the game, with established pedigrees. And the names coming back, a lot of people didn't know.

"What I tried to do in following up the trade was to just have people reserve judgment. See what we got back. See the talent we got back before they made an opinion."

Michael Hill points out that the franchise succeeded in bringing in talent that could be key to the future of the team. No one questioned that at the onset of the trade. Jake Marisnick and Justin Nicolino were on their way to being well-considered in prospect circles, and the rest of the talent acquired (save for Jeff Mathis) had its merits. But in justifying a trade that was a good one from a baseball standpoint, the Marlins are continuing to forget the reasons why the trade failed.

First off, the Fish never acknowledge the true reasoning for the move: to dump the significant amounts of salary on the contracts of Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, and others. The way owner Jeffrey Loria saw it, the team did not need to pay more than $100 million in payroll to be in last place, and in that respect, he was right. But for Hill and others to talk about this deal as a setup to build a bright new future rather than a fire sale to reset the ugly past is disingenuous. The Marlins made it clear they were uninterested in paying that much money for a product in which they had no confidence, so one season into the grand experiment, they aborted and took the money.

Now, as we mentioned before, the money that the Marlins saved on their various players was part of why the trade was a successful baseball one. The Fish got rid of the tail end of contracts that were heavily backloaded, likely with the thought that the Marlins would unload the contracts onto other teams should the franchise fail to compete. Getting rid of that exorbitant amount of cash was a good thing, but only if the Marlins decided to reinvest it into the team. But one season after the fire sale, there does not appear to be any interest in reinvesting that money saved. Giancarlo Stanton still has not received a much-needed contract extension. No other additions have been made to this team, in part because the franchise is struggling badly enough that random free agent additions would not help it compete.

Perhaps most telling is the fact that, even when Miami could invest to acquire better future talent, the franchise is skipping the process. Loria and the front office famously passed on paying parts of Ricky Nolasco's salary when he was traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and that resulted in a significantly smaller trade return. That is just the latest in a long line of instances in which Miami has decided not to pay salary and, in return, receive lesser prospects. And it is this sign more than anything else that continues to point to the Fish favoring penny-pinching over true value. The money the Marlins saved in the fire sale trade, so far, has resulted in no excess trade value.

All that is left then is the players, and Hill and the front office want us to believe that they will carry this franchise into the future. Four of the acquired players may play future roles in Miami, but at the time of acquisition, only two (Jake Marisnick and Justin Nicolino) held significant promise. Anthony DeSclafani was a great catch, and Henderson Alvarez has been great for half of a season. The other pickups have remained questionable at best. The Marlins picked up a lot of talent, and given what happened to the players traded, the results on the field have been good so far.

But could Miami have done better? The Fish chipped in plenty of cash, but could they have sent more to Toronto to offset some of the cost of the deal? Could they have kept a worse contract to get better players, such as withholding Buehrle or one of the lesser players like John Buck to get a Noah Syndergaard? Had the Marlins only kept Jose Reyes, could the team have squeezed out a deal for Marisnick, Nicolino, and another prospect? I believe the Marlins did not have to commit entirely to a plan to raid the team of Major League talent. Had Miami hedged its bets and gone halfway with the fire sale, they would likely have a better foundation for the immediate future and still establish prospect depth.

The Marlins still has not answered the questions it needs to answer thanks to this trade. Will the franchise supplement a future competitive roster with solid signings without pressure from Major League Baseball? Would players be interested in playing in Miami for market prices despite the team's history, or will it have to pay through the nose to acquire talent? Can Miami actually utilize the money it saved in that trade in a positive fashion? So far, that money has gone only into the Marlins' coffers, and that eliminates the value of the deal. The players have gotten better in 2013, but none currently have star potential and many have been negatives thus far.

The book on this trade is still being written, but not with how the talent develops, but rather with what the Miami Marlins do to help that talent going forward. This trade's ultimate legacy may lie in the Marlins' reputation rather than its on-field performance.

More from Fish Stripes:

• Marlins History: The 1997 fire sale continues
• Marlins looking for stability around Giancarlo Stanton
• Miami Marlins trade target: Mark Trumbo
• Marlins rumors: Logan Morrison drawing trade interest
• Marlins Park to display more colorful artwork in 2014

I've been scouring the internet this morning for first reactions to the Padres' signing of free agent SP Josh Johnson.  While most all of the media and bloggers like the acquisition there's quite a few angry fans from Toronto who hate him, which is somewhat understandable after his performance last season.

Josh Johnson

Toronto Blue Jays San Diego Padres

Height: 6-7

Weight: 250

Born: Jan 31, 1984

Myself, I'd never heard of him until about two weeks ago when his name started popping up in Padres rumors.  I don't watch or follow American League games or if I'm being honest any games except those involving the Padres.  In theory I like anytime the Padres buy themselves a new player, you know, new blood and all.  The contract seems reasonable and I like that the Padres get a $4 million option in 2015 if he pitches less than 7 games in 2014.

Today we like the trade, but maybe someday we'll be comparing Johnson to Edinson Volquez. When we do we'll know that Geoff from Ducksnorts did it first.  I'm not quite sure how to interpret his tweets on Johnson?  Sarcastically optimistic?  I had to ask Dex if Geoff's tweet was fresh or rotten.  Dex says it was "FRESH!" but "the worst kind of fresh", like it's about to turn at any moment.  He also wanted me to tell you to see Walt Disney'sFrozen which coincidentally is also 100% fresh on the Tomatometer, just like the Josh Johnson signing.

Apologies to RottenTomotes.com

Here's the reaction from the media and bloggers.  I'll add more when I see them.  Leave me links in the comments if you come across a review of the signing.

Peter Gammons
Josh Johnson @$8M is a bargain sign for Padres.

Josh Johnson signs one-year deal with Padres - Yahoo Sports
The upside for the Padres is enormous. Should Johnson recapture his success of years past – his career ERA is 3.40, even after the unsightly 6.20 last year – he becomes one of three things: an important piece of a contending San Diego team, a great trade chip come July or a player worthy of a qualifying offer who fetches San Diego a draft pick if he signs elsewhere.

Discounted Josh Johnson Is Low Risk, High Reward For Padres: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com
There's still considerable upside for the Padres in this deal, though, as Johnson's earnings top out at $9.25MM for 2014. The going rate for a #3-4 type starter is around $14MM, and Johnson certainly has that capability for the Padres.

Josh Johnson’s Creative Contract With the Padres | FanGraphs Baseball
If Johnson can get his mechanics and elbow in order, he’s very likely to be worth much more than this contract. If he pitches half of the season and then gets hurt again, he’ll probably still be worth close to $8 million. If he misses the season getting healthy, the Padres can get him for even cheaper next year. Hard to dislike this for the Padres.

Buster Olney
It's just a one year deal and if he comes in and he's an effective pitcher then you get pretty good production for a relatively low salary.

Padres take a smart chance by signing Josh Johnson | The Strike Zone - SI.com
San Diego has set itself up nicely to not only compete but also potentially trade some surplus, while Johnson is in the right place for a turnaround.

Josh Johnson agrees to 1-year free-agent deal with San Diego Padres - MLB News | FOX Sports on MSN
Johnson could become the veteran leader of a promising rotation that includes Ian Kennedy, Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross. At the very least, Johnson should find it much easier to perform in a pitcher-friendly National League West ballpark than at Toronto’s Rogers Centre, a homer haven in the American League East. If Johnson returns to his 2009-2010 form — 26-11, 2.80 ERA — then he might get his big payday after all, just one year later than expected.

Josh Johnson Is A Padre And I Like It

ESPN reported that a source said that he turned down more money in a one year deal from other teams to come to San Diego. That's a guy I want to spend all next year rooting for.

@619Sports
Will he be successful, or just hurt again? Either way, Josh Johnson for 1 year/8 mil is a decent gamble for the #Padres.

@WoeDoctor
Morning-after reaction to the Josh Johnson signing: still like it. Definite warning signs, but the Padres HAVE to sign flawed players...if they're unwilling/unable to spend big. Even with regression, the contract isn't a huge knock and provisions provides wiggle room.

@MickeyKoke
Potential legit ace when healthy. This could be huge!!!  Get a big bat and you're playoff bound, @Padres. Props to ownership early on for taking a shot. Low risk, high reward.

@Ducksnorts
I don't hate the Johnson signing, but the level of excitement among #Padres fans says a lot about recent off-seasons.

@Steve_Adler
Johnson, if healthy give the Padres a legit Ace. JJ, Cashner, Ross, Kennedy, and 14 other guys competing for fifth spot. #wellplayed

Would You Have Wanted AA to Offer JJ That Contract? - Bluebird Banter
The contract is a pretty big win for the Padres as they minimize risk with the cheap 2015 option if Johnson doesn't deliver in 2014. They also were able to keep the base salary very low and even with the 26 start bonus of $1.5 million, the contract is very affordable. An $8 million contract should provide somewhere between one and two wins, which Johnson has accumulated in six of his seven major league seasons with more than 15 starts. In short, if Josh Johnson's 2013 campaign was a blip instead of a warning sign, then this contract is a bargain for the San Diego Padres.

Josh Johnson, lets enjoy the ride | Padres Public
There’s probably a whole lot of bad luck wrapped up in that gnarly 6.20 ERA last season. We should expect him to snap out of it in San Diego.

More from Gaslamp Ball:

• Padres offseason: 5 most pivotal players
• Josh Johnson Is A Padre And I Like It
• Questions & Answers With Doc Roberts
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• The Padres' last games in first place for each season

Should Alex Anthopoulos have given Josh Johnson the contract that he eventually accepted from San Diego?

Late last night news broke that Josh Johnson had come to an agreement with the San Diego Padres on a free agent contract. The details aren't 100% confirmed as of yet, but it seems that the details being rumoured are fairly accurate. Jeff Passan broke the news and he says the contract:

is worth a guaranteed $8 million and includes another $1.25 million if Johnson reaches 26 starts. Sources told Yahoo Sports that beyond the standard deal, a unique clause exists: Should Johnson make fewer than seven starts in 2014, the Padres would hold a $4 million club option for 2015...

Well, that's pretty good isn't it? It was reported that Johnson had his eyes set on either San Francisco or San Diego as his destination (do you blame him?) and after the Giants signed Tim Hudson, the Padres were the clear favourite. Supposedly, Johnson had offers that were at the very least equally as good as the one from San Diego, but he decided that living and pitching in San Diego was worth it. If you're looking for a quick rebound year before lining yourself for a bigger payday, then Petco Park is definitely a good choice.

The contract is a pretty big win for the Padres as they minimize risk with the cheap 2015 option if Johnson doesn't deliver in 2014. They also were able to keep the base salary very low and even with the 26 start bonus of $1.5 million, the contract is very affordable. An $8 million contract should provide somewhere between one and two wins, which Johnson has accumulated in six of his seven major league seasons with more than 15 starts. In short, if Josh Johnson's 2013 campaign was a blip instead of a warning sign, then this contract is a bargain for the San Diego Padres. There's a clear risk that Josh Johnson will never regain his form and will drift into the abyss, but that possibility would only cost the Padres $8 million. Considering the team has solid starting pitching depth already, this is a risk they can afford to take.

In terms of the Blue Jays, it is clear that Alex Anthopoulos didn't value Josh Johnson at $14 million, but would he have been happy with $8 million? I can't possibly see Anthopoulos turning down the opportunity to sign Johnson to this contract, which would mean he never got a chance to match this deal. Appearing on Sportsnet yesterday, the GM said:

I followed up last week just to see where they were at with it," Anthopoulos said. "The door is still open, the conversation is still there, but I get the sense that there might be better options for him in some other spots.

That quote seems a little strange considering an $8 million offer is not that substantial. I wonder if Anthopoulos had abandoned the idea of bringing Johnson back and let him go elsewhere without much of a fight.

The question for you folks is whether you would have been on board if Josh Johnson returned to the Blue Jays on the deal that he agreed to with the San Diego Padres. Personally, the answer is an absolute yes as the risk is fairly minimal and the possibility of a massive rebound year is well worth the $8 million price tag. What say you?

The San Diego Padres have agreed to a one-year, $8 million deal with free-agent starting pitcher Josh Johnson. Fake Teams breaks down the fantasy implications.

The San Diego Padres and Josh Johnson have agreed to a one-year deal worth $8 million, reports ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.

On Monday, it was reported by the San Francisco Chronicle's Henry Schulman that Johnson's preferred landing spot was the Padres or Giants, given the teams' proximity to his Las Vegas home. San Francisco, however, opted to sign free-agent Tim Hudson, opening up a clearer path to San Diego.

Johnson, 29, is coming off a disappointing season with the Toronto Blue Jays, in which the right-hander posted a 6.20 ERA and 1.66 WHIP, easily the worst marks of his nine-year career. Johnson battled a triceps injury and missed significant time in 2013, making 16 starts while striking out 83 and walking 30 in 81 1/3 innings before undergoing arthroscopic surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow.

Prior to his down year in Toronto, Johnson spent eight seasons with the Marlins, posting a 56-37 record while recording a 3.15 ERA and 1.23 WHIP across 144 starts. In 998 career innings, Johnson has struck out 915 batters, or 9.18 strikeouts per nine innings.

Since winning the National League pitching title in 2010, Johnson has battled injuries and inconsistency, missing the majority of the 2011 season with a shoulder injury. He bounced back with a full season in 2012, making 31 starts and posting a 3.81 ERA. His K/9 rate, however, dropped significantly, as Johnson struck out 165 in 191 1/3 innings.

The move to the NL and San Diego is the perfect fantasy landing spot for Johnson, whose advanced pitching metrics in 2013 -- a 4.62 FIP and a 3.58 xFIP -- suggest he wasn't as bad as a 6.20 ERA. (He also had a career-worst .356 BABIP.) Moving from the Rogers Centre in Toronto to Petco Park in San Diego should ease some of the home run troubles Johnson encountered in 2013. In 81-plus innings, Johnson allowed 15 home runs and posted his worst HR/FB rate in his career (18.5 percent). Last season, Toronto's ballpark allowed the third most home runs, according to ESPN Park Factors, while San Diego allowed the 17th most.

At best, Johnson can re-discover a bit of his All-Star past and re-build his value as a premiere starter in the NL. But realistically, Johnson becomes an interesting sleeper candidate and a terrific streaming opportunity in a favorable pitching environment. Johnson's rebounding strikeout rate should comfort owners who take a chance on Johnson becoming much better in 2014, but keep in mind that opposing batters pummeled him last season to the tune of a .299 BA. I'd take a chance on Johnson as a low-end No. 4 starter, with a potential return on investment as a No. 2. But, again, I think that's a long shot.

More from Fake Teams:

• The Top 5 National League Fantasy Pitching Prospect Rankings
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• Fantasy Football: Week 12 Waiver Wire and More
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• Fantasy Top 5 - The Texas Rangers
• Fantasy Baseball 2014: Early Outfielder Rankings 31 - 60
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Mike Wilner had this:

#Bluejays roster machinations ahead of Rule 5 roster deadline! #Jays add Deck McGuire to the 40-man roster, that's it.

— Mike Wilner (@Wilnerness590) November 20, 2013

That leaves the Jays with 38 on the 40-man roster. I don't think they will be picking anyone in the draft. But there is time for trades or free agent signings to fill those two spots before the draft. Kenny Wilson, Juan Perez and Ricky Romero aren't on the 40-man, but I don't think they are in any risk of being taken by any other team.

Minor Leaguer update (4:00 pm):The New Hampshire Fisher Cats just tweeted out that Wilson had indeed been added to the roster.

Congrats to @ItsKennyWilson too! Added with @deckmcguire to the @BlueJays 40-man roster today.

— NH Fisher Cats (@fishercats) November 20, 2013

Fangraphs has a post up on the number of DL days lost by each team in the majors. The Jays lost the 4th most days to the DL in 2013, trailing the Marlins, Braves and Yankees. We were 2nd with the number of DL stints, behind the Yankees. And number 5 in average days lost over the past 4 seasons. Anyway, take a look and tell us what you take away from it all.

Over at MLB.com, Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo ranked the top prospects who played in the Arizona Fall League. The top Blue Jays:

4. Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Blue Jays (Salt River): The best starter in the AFL, Sanchez dominated hitters. He has top-of-the-rotation stuff and is ready for a move to the upper levels of Toronto's system.

12. Marcus Stroman, RHP, Blue Jays (Salt River): Stroman had a solid turn in the Rafters' bullpen, holding hitters to a .186 batting average and striking out 10.03 per nine, but his future is as a starter. A 2012 first-round Draft pick, he should be able to help Toronto's rotation at some point next season.

Over at bluejays.com, Gregor Chisholm looks at the 'five burning questions' the Jays face this off-season.

And, in case you missed it, Omar Vizquel has been signed by the Tigers to coach first base and base running. Westill have a first base coach job open. I wouldn't have minded the Jays signing him for that job.

More from Bluebird Banter:

Follow @bluebirdbanterFollow @SBNationMLB

• Would You Have Wanted AA to Offer JJ That Contract?
• Toronto Blue Jays offseason: 5 most pivotal players
• Adam Lind Needs a Partner in Crime
• Josh Johnson is signing with the Padres
• A Blue Jays-Reds trade proposal: Brandon Phillips and Ryan Hanigan for Brett Cecil, Ryan Goins, Anthony Gose, and Matt Dean
• If You Think It's Lame, Well, You Miss Out: San Francisco Giants Sign Tim Hudson, He's Not Josh Johnson

With Chris Carpenter announcing his retirement today, I thought I'd recycle this look back at his time with the Blue Jays.

Chris Carpenter was born April 27, 1975 in Exeter, New Hampshire. The Blue Jays picked him in the 1st round of the 1993 draft, with the 15th overall pick, out of Trinity High School in Manchester, NH. Alex Rodriguez was the number one pick that year. The Jays had 4 first round picks, the other three (Matt Farner, Jeremy Lee and Mark Lukasiewicz) didn't amount to much.

Chris had a quick run up our minor league system, starting in Medicine Hat, where he went 6-3 with a 2.76 ERA in 15 starts (I wish we still had the Rookie League team in Medicine Hat. It is just a 2.5 hour drive from me). Baseball America had him as a top 100 prospect for 3 years, from 1995 to 1997.

In 1997 Carpenter was called up in May to fill Robert Person's spot in the rotation, when Person was out with an injury. Chris made three bad starts, going 0-2 with a 12.71 ERA and was sent back down again. He back up in late July, when Juan Guzman went down with an injury. He finished 3-7, with a 5.09 ERA. We had a pretty good rotation back then, with Roger Clemens, Pat Hentgen, Woody Williams and Juan Guzman.

In 1998 Chris split time between the rotation and the bullpen, starting in the rotation then moving to the pen until the end of July when Guzman was traded to the Orioles. Chris finished 12-7 with a 4.37 ERA in 33 games, 24 starts.

We had a few changes to the rotation in 1999, Clemens was traded to the Yankees, with David Wells coming back and Woody Williams (and others) were traded to the Padres for Joey Hamilton (not one of GM Gord Ash's better moves). Carpenter was a full time starter, but went on the DL a couple of times. He finished 9-8 with a 4.38 ERA in 24 starts. Fangraphs has 1998 and 1999 tied for his best seasons with the Jays, with a 3.2 WAR both years.

2000 wasn't a good year for Chris. It started off ok, he was 6-5 with a 4.45 ERA in mid-June, but a 1-4, 11.75 ERA July got him put into the bullpen. He finished 9-8 with a 6.26 ERA, in 34 games, 27 starts. He had trouble keeping the ball in the park, giving up 30 home runs, and he walked 4.3 per 9 while only getting 5.8 strikeouts. He was never a strikeout pitcher, at least for the Jays, it is tough to be a winner with a 1.36 SO/BB ratio.

In 2001 Chris had a full, healthy season in the rotation. He made 34 starts, and went 11-11 with a 4.09 ERA. He pitched 215.2 innings and struck out 157, both his high water marks for the Jays. He started the season well, going 7-4 with a 3.67 ERA up until the end of June but had 7 straight losses through July and most of August and his ERA climbed to 4.59. He bounced back with a 4 game win streak to end the season.

Carpenter was our opening day starter in 2002, but that was about the end of the good news for him that season. He went on the DL after that first start, came off to make a start on April 21st, and went back on the DL. Chris then had a run of 11 starts from the end of June to mid-August. In August he went on the DL one more time and had to have major shoulder surgery to repair a labrum tear. In total, he made 13 starts, went 4-5 with a 5.28 ERA in 73.1 innings.

As he was going to miss the whole 2003 season, the Jays just offered Chris a minor league contract. He decided to become a free agent instead and signed with the Cardinals. It was an understandable decision on the part of the Blue Jays, Chris hadn't lived up to his ‘top prospect' status yet and there was no way of knowing if he would come back strong after surgery. Labrum surgery is still an iffy thing for a pitcher. The Cardinals, on the other hand, were willing to take a gamble on him, paying him near the major league minimum for 2003. The Jays took the opposite approach with Dustin McGowan, maybe learning from Carpenter's example.

Chris is 12th on the Blue Jays all time list for wins with 49 and 13th in games started.

It worked out for the Cardinals. He missed most of 2007 and 2008 after Tommy John surgery but Chris won 95 games for them and helped them to win 2 World Series. He won 2 games in their series win over Texas, to get win the World Series, in 2011. He, again, missed most of 2012, but pitched in the playoffs, unfortunately he lost two games in their World Series loss to the Rangers. As a Cardinal, he's won a Cy Young and finished second and third in the voting Chris cut down his walk rate with the Cards. As a Jay he walked 3.4/9, as a Cardinal he has only walked 2.0/9, while striking out an extra batter per 9 with the Cards. Getting to pitch to opponent pitchers likely explains the extra k's.

Congratulations on a great career Chris. I wish more of it had been with the Jays but we can't have everything.

The floodgates can open now, we've had the first big trade of the off-season. Prince Fielder and $30 million are heading to Texas for Ian Kinsler. I'm sure it won't be the last trade of the winter.

The $30 million means that the Rangers will effectively be paying Prince $138 million over the next 7 years. Fielder is coming off his worst season since 2006, putting up a .358 wOBA and a .279/.362/.457 slash line. Fielder will likely see a jump in his stats moving to the fair smaller park in Arlington. I'm not sure I'd want to have Fielder on my team in 2020 when he will be 36 and likely somewhere north of 300 pounds.

The Rangers almost had to move Kinsler, since they gave Elvis Andrus a big contract that runs til 2022, with an option for 2023 (doesn't that sound a long way off) and Jurickson Profar needing a middle infield spot to play. Kinsler is owed $57 million over the rest of his contract that ends after the 2017 season.

The deal frees up some money for the Tigers to sign Max Scherzer and allows them to move Miguel Cabrera back across the diamond to first base.

Update: I missed something interesting. Kinsler has hit .304/.387/.511 at home over his career, but just .242/.312/.399 on the road. I wonder if that is a home cooking thing, or if Arlington is just a good place for him to hit.

Josh Johnson received a contract for 2014 with the San Diego Padres for $8M. If Johnson makes fewer than seven starts, the Padres will get a team option of $4M. This looks like good value for the Padres. It can't possibly be worse value than the Blue Jays got from Johnson. This article estimates what that value was.

Now that Josh Johnson has signed with the Padres, we can finally, completely close the book on him. Hopefully the Padres get better value out of Johnson than the Blue Jays did. Considering the unmitigated disaster that Johnson was for the Jays, it'd be hard to imagine him working out worse. Let's compare the impact of the Johnson deal to the impact of the Vernon Wells contract. Now, this only looks at the direct impacts on the Jays; since Alex Anthopoulos moved Vernon's heavily backloaded contract before the total collapse Vernon's seen the past couple years, impact of Vernon's contract on the Jays drastically understates the impact of the contract on the whole.

For each player, there are generally three elements of value exchange: 1) cost of acquisition; 2) cost of salary obligation; and 3) value of play.

The Vernon Wells Contract

Cost of Acquisition: the Jays already had Vernon. If they'd let him walk, he'd have been a Type A free agent and netted them two picks. The value of those picks is not exact, but likely somewhere between $5M and $7.5M. Total: $7.5M.

Cost of Salary Obligations: The three seasons the Jays were responsible for the Vernon Wells deal cost $40M, plus the $5M that they paid to the Angels to move him. Total: $45M.

Value of Play: According to FanGraphs, he was worth around $+20M during that time.

Other factors: The value of two years of team control for Mike Napoli should partially offset that (Napoli provided around $20M during those two season). Unfortunately, they flipped Napoli for Francisco who provided about zero surplus (including the comp pick). Still, I'm not going to include Napoli's value here because the Jays didn't actually get anything from him besides Francisco and the pick, the total value of which was about equivalent to Francisco's salary.

Estimated Value of Wells contract to Jays: $20M - $45M - $7.5M = Total: $-32M

(N.B., of course, that this does not include the immense surplus value he provided before signing that contract.)

The Josh Johnson Trade

Cost of Acquisition: Johnson was acquired in a trade. Let's try and put a value on those players the Jays gave up. Well, considering that the John Buck, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, and Emilio Bonifacio contracts added up to about zero surplus value, a somewhat conservative estimate might be that Johnson was worth only half of the $57.5 M of surplus value that the Jays gave up in MLB players and none of the value of their prospects, $28.75M.

Cost of Salary Obligations: Josh Johnson was signed for $13.75M last season.

Value of Performance: FIP is kinder to Johnson but, for argument's sake, let's go by rWAR, which models his value based on the actual number of runs he gave up rather than what would be predicted by his walks, strikeouts, home runs, and innings pitched. By rWAR, Johnson was markedly below replacement-level. Total: $-7.25M

Estimated Value (by rWAR) of Johnson acquisition to Jays: $-7.25M - $28.5M -$ 13.75M = Total: $-59M

Now, wins are worth a lot more on the free agent market than when Wells signed his contract back before the 2007 season. Adjusting for that inflation, the negative value of the Wells deal would be about eight wins. The negative value of the Johnson trade is approximately 11 wins. Of course, don't forget that we're being pretty conservative in our estimate of the cost of his acquisition. If you assume that all the surplus value of the players was tied up in Josh and the prospects the Jays included covered the combined value of Reyes, Buehrle, Bonifacio, and Buck, then the negative value of the Johnson trade is 16 wins.

The silver lining is that, because the Padres signed him as a free agent, Johnson can't possibly hurt them as much as he hurt the Jays. Assuming they pick up his $4M option, he'll be paid a total of $12M. To provide $-47M in value, Johnson would have to be worth a combined -8.5 WAR over the next two years. Of course, to provide that kind of value, he'd likely have to pitch too much in 2014 for the Padres to have an option.

Unfinished business, Josh? Yep, you could say that.

Thanks to the Violent Femmes, whose "Kiss Off" inspired today's title.