Bluebird Banter writers were asked who they would pick if they could choose one free agent for the Blue Jays to sign. It is Damaso's Burnt Shirt's turn.

I was originally planning to write about Robinson Cano. Why not? He's the best 2B in the game with power and defense (when his head is in the game) and his loss would cripple the Blue Jays' AL East rival New York Yankees. Cano would turn the Jays offense from good to awesome as well as solidify a very weak position in the Jays lineup. However, there's a small catch: a $300 million/10 year small catch which makes it very unlikely that the Blue Jays would sign him. A desperate man can dream, right? Of course signing him would mean there would be no money for starting pitching. There is a cheaper alternative that won't hamstring the Jays for a decade: Omar Infante.

The 31-year-old Omar is 18th on the MLB Trade Rumors list of the top 50 free agents, and has a predicted contract of 3 years for $25 million, which fits the Jays current payroll budget unlike the gargantuan contract Robinson will probably get.

Infante's 2013 slash line was .318/.345./.450 which was one of his best hitting seasons. Based on his career norms, he usually hits around mid .270s with an on-base percentage of .315 and slugging just above .400. Considering that in 2013, Jays 2B hit a whopping slash line of .216/.258/.297, a merely average (for him) Omar Infante would be a dramatic improvement.

Looking at his stats on Baseball Reference, his career platoon splits are almost the same. He'll hit right-handed pitching with a similar average and OBP as lefty, but with a touch less power (around 30 slugging points lower). Defensively he is not awful. Not Ryan Goins spectacular, but decent enough to wash away the bad taste of Boni-turis.

He's been around a 2.0+ rWAR player for the last three seasons (2.4 rWAR in 118 games in 2013.)

As much as I would like Robinson Cano be the Jays new 2B, Omar Infante would give the Jays a decent-but-not-spectacular 2B and allow them the payroll flexibility to sign a decent free agent starting pitcher or catcher. Another bonus is that Infante won't cost a draft pick as he wasn't given a qualifying offer by the Tigers.

The closer's poll wasn't close, Tom Henke won with 68% of the vote, Duane Ward was second with 15%. Casey was third with 6%. 4 people voted someone else....and I thought I included every pitcher that had been closer for more than a couple of months.

Middle relievers....well there are hundreds. I'm going to try to limit it to a dozen or so. I've been going back and forth on putting Duane Ward in. Other players I've only put in one poll, so I'm going to stick to that plan.

This is the one poll I expect to be close.

Shi Davidi, as he so often does, gives us a little bit of news that I hadn't seen before:

Yet during the winter meetings, the Los Angeles Dodgers discussed outfielder Matt Kemp with them, according to sources. The idea isn't believed to have gained any traction at all-Kemp has six seasons remaining on his $160-million, eight-year deal, which is beyond the Blue Jays' maximum of five-year commitments-but that it was raised at all indicates the kind of bold thinking GMs are engaging in right now.

This comes in the middle of a story telling us that baseball GM's are discussing bigger trades than the had been over the last few years, using the Fielder-Kinsler trade as an example.

Now, Alex talks about everyone. Honestly, if Shi instead found a player that Anthopoulos hasn't inquired about, that might be a bigger story. As he points out, talks didn't go far. I can't imagine what the Jays would give back to get Kemp. There are rumors that the Yankees and other teams are interest in Kemp too.

But the interesting part is that the Jays are looking to make a big move this winter and maybe they have to make a big move to get the interest of the fanbase again. A year ago we were very excited about the team, at the moment, well I shouldn't speak for the rest of you, but personally, they are going to have to do a fair bit of work to make me think they will be somewhere near competitive this year. Or even fun to watch.

Anyway, it is good to see that Alex is thinking big. Let's hope something happens. I'm tired of talking about rumors that have very little chance of happening.

Rogers Communications, the owners of the Toronto Blue Jays, is undergoing a big change in governance as retiring CEO Nadir Mohamed is being replaced by Guy Laurence as the head of the giant media empire effective December 2, 2013. Laurence, a Briton from Manchester, was previously the CEO of Vodaphone. On Friday afternoon, Toronto Sports Media (@yyzsportsmedia) tweeted that he had received a tip that Laurence may be pushing to cut the budget to the Blue Jays, and that money (either this coming season or seasons going forward) may be "very tight." The tweets were sort of expanded into a short blog post here.

I’m hearing rumblings on the rogers side that @bluejays baseball budget could be cut moving forward #newceo

— jonah (@yyzsportsmedia) November 22, 2013

the same folks who told me about layoffs at Rogers media r telling me @bluejays budget is being closely examined. $ could b very tight

— jonah (@yyzsportsmedia) November 22, 2013

Merry Christmas, Blue Jays fans.

Of course, the mentioned layoffs referred to the 94 Rogers Media employees who were let go earlier this month. Rogers Media is the arm of Rogers Communications that operates the Blue Jays as well as Sportsnet, their television and radio broadcasters.

While Nadir Mohamed had not hassled himself with the everyday operations of the Blue Jays, he does get consulted on any large dealings. He was personally involved in the approvals of Jose Bautista's contract extension, and the trades with the Marlins and Mets last offseason. Mohamed had been supportive of the Blue Jays, and as recently as August, pledged his support for the baseball club. He was quoted saying that he had turned from a casual to a "big fan" of the Jays during the last few years.

Before the end of the season, Keith Pelly, president of Rogers Media, said that he believed that the change in CEOs should not "should not affect the offseason process." It is likely that the ownership has already approved a ballpark figure for Paul Beeston and Alex Anthopoulos to work on entering the offseason, but would need to be approached again to greenlight any additional expenses.

Right now, not considering arbitration awards to eligible players, the Blue Jays have a payroll commitment of $110 million in 2014, $91 million in 2015, $27.6 million in 2016, and Jose Reyes's $22 million in 2017 according to Cot's Contracts.

Hearing that the incoming Guy Laurence may tighten up the Blue Jays' budget is concerning, but I would not read all too much into this report--at least not yet. As a bottom-line-conscious CEO who was known for turning around Vodafone through cultural changes, budget cuts, and layoffs, it is not entirely surprising to hear that he would be investigating into an arm of his company where very well-paid employees play a sport that he is probably not very familiar with. Since he doesn't seem to be dim of wit, I would assume that he also understands the value of Blue Jays content for Sportsnet channels and he knows the number of fans who have come out to the stadium Rogers owns. He would have to do his own arithmetic to see whether a backlash from fans over a budget cut is worth it.

There still is a lot of lingering fears about European ownership from back in the deep, dark, Interbrew days, but fans should keep in mind that Rogers Communications remain a Canadian company despite their CEO being from the United Kingdom. It might not be as easy for Beeston and Anthopoulos to talk to him about reasons behind specific player acquisitions, but perhaps he is someone who, like his predecessor, turn into a big Blue Jays fan.

On the plus side, now we might be able to use the #CheapRogers hashtag again.

By showing him the game in his native language.

The Kansas City Royals designated solid back-up catcher George Kottaras for assignment recently because Dayton Moore might have not thought through his signing of Jason Vargas so well. Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star wrote that when explaining why the move was made:

"One top club official responded by rubbing his thumb over the tips of his first two fingers."

Money.

I suppose Jason Vargas is worth blowing up your payroll situation for 2014...

Another reason Kottaras was DFA'ed was to make room for Vargas on the 40-man roster and he may have been non-tendered this offseason regardless of Vargas' arrival. The Scarborough native is 30 years old and made his debut against the Blue Jays in 2008 as a Red Sox player. In 2013 he appeared in 46 games with the Royals hitting .180/.349/.370 with a tidy 19% BB% rate. He also hit five home runs, while working against a .245 BABIP.

The Canadian is a left-handed hitting, right-handed catching backstop who is capable defensively with a passable arm. He's always walked a lot in his career, making his low batting averages a little easier to swallow. Kottaras is a super-two player who is under team control for two more seasons. His first two years of arbitration elgibility netted him salaries of $700,000 and $1,000,000. He's expected to get $1.2 million this season according to MLB Trade Rumors.

There's a little risk in bringing Kottaras aboard as the Blue Jays have a fair amount of back-up type catchers, but with 0.7 WAR this year in only 46 games he might even take J.P. Arencibia's job! What do you folks think about Kottaras coming to the Blue Jays?

A year ago today, the Blue Jays had the press conference introducing John Gibbons as manager and I talked about his first stint with the Jays.

One of the things I said was 'he doesn't bunt much'. Well, that was true in the past. This past year we had 29 sac bunts, just under the AL average of 31. Baseball Reference has us successful 67% of the time, right at league average. . A lot of it was the personnel he had. Munenori Kawasaki had 10 bunts. Personally I thought he had Kawasaki bunt too often. Munenori would run the pitch count, and got on base reasonably well. But, I'm really not a fan of the bunt.

I said he didn't give out a lot of intentional walks. Well, again that might have been true before, but the Jays handed out 33 intentional walks, 6th in the AL. League average was 30. The Red Sox had the league low with 10. I hate the intentional walk.

Beyond that, I thought he did ok with the bullpen, though, considering the number of good arms we had out there, it wasn't that hard. I'd suggest that Steve Delabar shouldn't pitch more than an inning ever.

He was willing to try things with the batting order. I thought Jose Bautista batting second was inspired, though he didn't seem to sell Jose on the idea. If you are going to do something like that, you really should explain it to the player, and get him on your side. With all the injuries, there was a fair bit of playing around with the batting order.

I did think he would be a little stronger with the discipline. After the pretty loose ship we had with the last manager (I forget his name), I thought that Gibby would be ruling with an iron hand, and that didn't seem to happen. I did expect him to less tolerant with mistakes than he was. There were too many moments of mental errors. I know it is a lot to expect of a manager to clean all that up in a season, but still, I expected more.

I do see a lot of complaints about Gibby, mostly on Twitter and mainstream media comment sections, people figuring the manager should be able to win regardless of what's happening with the players. With the mess we had in 2013, I can't see blaming the manager for terrible season.

Anyway, a year in, what do you think about Gibby as manager?

There's rumblings that the Blue Jays are trying to work out a deal to get Jeff Samardzija in a trade with the Cubs. The rumour was first mentioned by Chicago writer Bruce Levine and posted on Twitter late this afternoon:

Teams have inquired about StarterJeff Samardzija. Source: Toronto putting together package of young players.

— Bruce Levine (@MLBBruceLevine) November 23, 2013

Samardzija was drafted in the fifth round of the 2006 draft and will be 29 years old when the 2014 season starts. He was planning to play both football and baseball professionally before being drafted by the Cubs, but after signing a five year deal with the North Siders he decided he would focus on baseball (there was a nice bonus involved with that decision). Samardzija was a standout for both the baseball and football teams at Notre Dame and would have gone quite high in the NFL Draft as well.

The Indiana native is a 6'5" and 225 pound right-handed pitcher. After making his debut in mid-2008, Samardzija came out of the bullpen for four years before moving to the rotation in the past two years. The big right-hander started 33 games with Chicago this year pitching to a 4.34 ERA and a 3.77 FIP resulting in a WAR of 2.8. With a K/9 consistently above 9.00, his stuff definitely is not lacking. His pitches include a four-seamer, two-seamer, cutter, splitter, and slider with his hard stuff sitting mid-90's. Here's his wicked splitter:

via www.fangraphs.com

Jeff Samardzija was paid $2.64 million this year and is under team control for two more years of arbitration eligibility. MLB Trade Rumors projects Samardzija to be earn $4.9 million this upcoming season, which would definitely be good value for the Blue Jays.

Guessing the package of players being put together for Samardzija is a pretty impossible task, but the Cubs would likely ask for an outfielder in the deal as they're quite weak in that regard. Seeing Anthony Gose traded would not come as a huge shock personally. A bullpen piece going Chicago's way is also somewhat likely as they need help in that area of their team as well.

It's only a rumour at this point, but at least the Blue Jays have thrown us a bone to chew on for a little while.

The Blue Jays need pitchers and Scott Feldman is a pitcher so I guess that makes him a match.

If you were to say that the Blue Jays are in need of a second baseman this offseason, or that the Blue Jays are in need of a catcher, then you would be correct! If you were however to say that the Blue Jays are in need of starting pitching, that would be a more true statement than the previous true statements, because the Blue Jays are actually in more desperate need of starting pitching than they are in need of second baseman-ing or major league catching.

Here, look at these handy non-edited non-biased stats from Baseball-Reference and see for yourself:

The bullpen was quite good and with luck and good health, will hopefully continue to perform close to how it did in 2013.

The lineup does need an upgrade at second and catcher, but to be honest a pitching rotation of R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow coming off injury, Todd Redmond, and Esmil Rogers is a little more worrisome than a mostly above-average lineup with two very weak parts.

So why Scott Feldman? Ranked 27th on MLB Trade Rumors' List of Top 50 Free Agents, Feldman is definitely not a top-tier starting pitcher--he is more of a #4 or #5 who can provide reliable innings with a decent ERA.

Basic Numbers

From 2008 to 2013, discounting 2011, which he missed most of due to injury, Feldman averaged just under 158 innings per season, the most being 190 in 2009.

Since returning from his injury in 2011, Feldman has posted quality numbers: a 3.86 ERA, 4.03 FIP, and 3.96 xFIP, all of which would be best among Blue Jays starters in 2013. Sigh.

Feldman also has a knack for inducing ground balls - his 49.4% GB rate ranked him fifth among available starters as the offseason began.

The Blue Jays infield defense is up and down, with Brett Lawrie being a plus defender with a plus arm, Jose Reyes being an average defender with a plus arm, and Edwin Encarnacion/Adam Lind being slightly below average. A large factor is which of Ryan Goins or Maicer Izturis is set to play second base, with Goins giving an obvious advantage to ground ball pitchers with his excellent range.

Feldman's flyball rate of 31.5% last year ranked him 53rd out of the 81 qualified starting pitchers. A low fly ball rate is key at the Rogers Centre, which has allowed 119 home runs per 100 home runs across all major league parks over the past three years. That basically means that there are a whole lot of home runs hit at the Rogers Centre. It would be nice to have a ground ball pitcher on this team.

Repertoire and Velocity

Feldman gets guys out with a five-pitch combination of four-seam fastball, cut fastball, changeup, curve, and sinker, with the four seam fastball not appearing all too often.

Feldman is not a power thrower by any means. He gets people out with his strong command and ability to locate pitches. He has posted a BB/9 of 2.9 since 2008 over the course of 811 innings.

His sinker and fastball velocities this year were career lows, but again, this shouldn't be much of a concern as Feldman relies more on command than throwing hard.

Injury History

Feldman had Tommy John surgery way back in 2003 as a minor leaguer, but has had no arm related health issues since. The injury in early 2011 was to his right knee and was repaired with microfracture surgery prior to the season.

Contract Comps

Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors thinks that a three-year $25MM contract, akin to the one Jeremy Guthrie signed last year would be Feldman's ceiling, but predicted a more modest two-year $17MM deal.

Would you be willing to go two years on Feldman at that price?

The latest on Shark: he could be headed to Toronto.

Based on this tweet from Bruce Levine:

Teams have inquired about StarterJeff Samardzija. Source: Toronto putting together package of young players.

— Bruce Levine (@MLBBruceLevine) November 23, 2013

Jeff Samardzija could be a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. The tweet doesn't indicate that this trade is "imminent," as the term is often used, or even somewhat close to being consummated.

But it seems clear that Theo Epstein & Co. are shopping Shark. A couple of weeks ago, this Washington Post report linked the Nationals as being one of the teams interested in acquiring the Cubs righthander. We have also seen -- and discussed here -- interest from the Arizona Diamondbacks going as far back as last summer.

I'm not familiar enough with the Toronto system to say exactly which player or players the Cubs should get in return. However, I'd think the Cubs would want at least one young pitcher who could compete for the 2014 rotation, as well as maybe get back some bullpen help.

Your thoughts, as always, in the comments.

The Blue Jays have enquired about starting pitchers around the league as they look to fill a hole in their rotation.

The Toronto Blue Jays have inquired with teams about starting pitchers, but have yet to make an offer, general manager Alex Anthopoulos told ESPN's Jim Bowden on Sirius XM Radio. He also says the team has not put serious thought into trading either Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion.

Rumor: Blue Jays Making Push For Jeff Samardzija

Bluebird Banter takes a look at the possibility of Toronto acquiring Jeff Samardzija

Anthopoulos was specifically asked about recent rumors that the team had been putting together a package of prospects to acquire Cubs starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija. He declined to comment on specific rumors, but rather than deny the two sides had talked, Anthopoulos said the team is "definitely exploring starters but ... have not made an offer." He then emphasized that the team was definitely enquiring, however.

The Blue Jays are talking to one other team about a "smaller trade", Anthopoulos says, though he declined to go into further detail. He also says the team has looked into free agent starting pitching as well.

"We've probably talked about all those guys, definitely all the starters," Anthopoulos told Bowden. "Definitely have made calls to all those guys to get a sense what their price might be, whether it's someone like [Matt] Garza or anyone."

Toronto has "ear-marked" most of their offseason money for starting pitching, says Anthopolous, though they are still looking to acquire a new catcher. The team has "not entertained" the notion of trading either Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion to upgrade another position, despite some rumors that Bautista could be moved.

The Blue Jays made big moves last year to upgrade their pitching staff, acquiring Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey in trades. Those moves did not work out quite as well as they hoped with the team stumbling to a 74-88 finish. Johnson recently signed with the Padres as a free agent, leaving Toronto with a hole in their rotation once again.

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The offseason is slow sometimes so here is a *fun* little thought experiment.

ESPN's Hit Tracker Online classifies home runs in three different ways. You have your "Just Enough", "No Doubt", and "Plenty"--basically, "No Doubt" are deep shots, "Just Enough" are ones that barely clear the playing field, and "Plenty" covers every other homer.

This home run by something called a Caleb Gindl at Miller Park was easily classifiable as a "Just Enough" home run. This home run was special because it got me thinking about outfield fences way back in July.

This ball was hit well, but it was not hit that well. It just barely cleared the left field fence and it just barely cleared the fence in fair territory, travelling a distance of 356 feet. That's about as poorly you can hit a ball with it still managing to make it over the fence for a home run.

This home run got me thinking about how baseballs react off the bat, and specifically why it is that centre field is deeper than the corners. I contacted Alan Nathan, Physics of Baseball researcher and professor of physics at the University of Illinois, and asked him that very question. His answer:

"...What I can tell you is that balls hit to the corner fields (as opposed to CF) are not necessarily hit with lower batted ball speed. Both "theory" and "experiment" (the latter being an inspection of batted ball speeds for home runs hit in MLB) shows that the batted ball speed is actually larger for a pulled ball than for one hit to straightaway CF."

I had originally thought that the ball would travel farthest when it makes contact with the bat across the plate--that is, when the arms are fully extended and when the bat is at its maximum speed. But, I'm not a physicist, or a mathematician, or even someone who understands basic math because I studied music for four years in college. (Haha oh god why did I do four years of music.)

Anyway I was wrong! From there, another thought: what if the fences were equal distance from the plate? How would that change things? Would there be more home runs or fewer? Would it matter? Probably not, but it's the offseason, so it's not like you have anything better to do.

Changing Dimensions

Let's use the Rogers Centre to demonstrate. It is not only the home of the Blue Jays, but the outfield fences are nicely symmetrical and uniform in height (10 feet). Fences are set at distances of, from left field to right, 328 - 375 - 400 - 375 - 328. Corners are 72 feet closer to the plate than the deepest part of the park in center field. Here it is as a visual, sort of:

Now what if the outfield fences were all the same distance from the plate? Here's Alan Nathan again:

"If you arrange so that the outfield fence is always the same distance from home plate, then you either have to make the CF fence closer or the corner fences farther. The latter will reduce home runs by a lot. The former will increase home runs but not as much."

Well, what if we did both, moving the fence in and out at the same time? I wanted to use the park's dimensions as a guide and build an average from the pre-existing outfield fence distances, so using my musician math, I settled on placing all the fences at 360 feet all the way around the outfield. Here's what that looks like, with thanks to Minor Leaguer for the diagram (Is that REAL grass????).

Now let's overlay the two images, just for kicks:

Damn, that's some professional looking work right there. I tried to overlay as best I could, placing the new outfield fences at 360 feet in relation to the other image. As we can see, we'll lose some home runs in the corners, but not many. What we don't see are the home runs we would gain from fly balls that would be caught in the current, uneven field.

Changing Home Runs

This is something that will be looked at a bit father along in the article, but the question is what would the change in home runs on a yearly basis be here? That's my question anyway. Obviously you would have other things to consider, such as the decrease in doubles and triples when a ball his hit to center field, the increase in doubles and triples when a ball is hit to either corner, defensive positioning, and the like. It would certainly make for a different game.

The only way I thought of determining whether we would get more home runs or less would be to look at individual players' spray charts for the year. Since hit f/x is not exactly a thing available to the public yet, we're going to do a gross simplification and assume that all balls hit to the outfield would have had enough height to clear our new fences.

We can pull visuals of spray charts from Yahoo! Sports, and overlay them with Minor Leaguer's ballpark. Here are a handful of said charts:

J.P. Arencibia (teehee)

Home runs lost: Three? We'll say three.

Home runs gained: 12. That's a lot of fly balls!

Net gain: Nine home runs gained throughout the year at the Rogers Centre for Arencibia.

Jose Bautista

Home runs lost: Two...and a half? Two.

Home runs gained: Two!

Net gain: Zero home runs gained at home

Edwin Encarnacion

Home runs lost: Three

Home runs gained: Twelve

Net gain: Nine at home

Adam Lind

Home runs lost: One (left field)

Home runs gained: Four

Net gain: Three at home

Colby Rasmus

Home runs lost: Four!

Home runs gained: Five!

Net gain: One! Excitement!

Yes, this is a small sample of five baseball players, but since every single one had an increase, and two had a sizeable increase in home runs with equidistant 360-foot fences, I think it's fair to say that there would be a large increase in home runs with these equidistant fences.

Let's run one more little experiment to see how this might affect a real game.

Recall that Caleb Gindle's home run came way back in July? I did a bit of work waaaaay back when the idea was relatively new, so this next part may seem like an oddly specific game, but the work has already been done, so I'm sticking with it.

What we're going to do here is look at the baseball game between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Houston Astros on July 28 of this past season. It was a good game, with Colby Rasmus hitting a walk-off single to send the Jays home happy with a 48-56 record. Oh wait maybe they weren't that happy. Here's the box score from the game.

I went through all the outs and hits from this game and looked at landing spots for balls, no matter if they were caught or landed for a hit.

There were no balls hit to the corners for home runs, so in this game, no home runs would have been taken away with our new fences. There were, however, plenty of deep fly balls to center field--let's look at just how many and see how it would affect the outcome of the game.

Yes there are a ton of things that would change if we just started turning outs in to hits, like in the case of a first inning first pitch deep fly ball to center field, instead of the score being 0-0 with 1 out and no one on, as it actually would have been, the score would be 1-0 with 0 out and no one on. This would lead to the four-hitter coming up to bat and would change the entire rest of the game, but forget all that and hear me out, for science.

Changing Outs

Brandon Barnes, Top 2, 0-0, One on, One out

What happened: Flyball out. 0-0, One on, Two out.

What would happen with new fences: Home run! 2-0 Astros, None on, One out.

Edwin Encarnacion, Bot 3, 0-0, Two on, One out

What happened: Sac fly, 1-0 Jays, One on, Two out

What would happen with new fences: Home run! 3-2 Blue Jays (Don't forget, Barnes hit a two run shot in the top of the 2nd), None on, One out

Brett Wallace, Top 6, 1-1, None on, Two out

Que paso? Fly ball out to end the inning. 1-1 halfway through 6.

New fences: Tater! 4-3 Astros now because of that additional run that happened since the last image, with 2 out in the 6th with no one on.

Edwin Encarnacion, Bot 6, 1-1, None on, no outs

What happened: Double for EE, no out one on second, 1-1 game. The ball is there somewhere.

WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN: Another home run! Now a 4-4 ballgame with none out and none on in the 6th inning.

Melky Cabrera, Bot 7, 1-1, One on, One out

The real thing: Double, runners on 1st and 3rd with one out, game still 1-1

The better thing: Home run! Will this turn Melky's season around?? Game is now 6-4 in favor of the Jays. One out in the 7th inning.

J.P. Arencibia, Bot 8, 1-1, One on, One out

What happened: Brandon Barnes made a ridiculous catch. I wish I could GIF this for y'all but sadly I cannot seem to find a single highlight of this very nice catch. Oh well. J.P. flew out, runner at first held there and there were two out

What could have happened: Home run! Now 8-4 Jays. J.P.'s season gets turned around too and the Jays make the playoffs. Sigh.

Jose Reyes, Bot 8, 1-1, Two on, Two out

What: Flyout. Inning over. Still 1-1.

What about: Another home run? That sounds nice. Although, it's the same inning as the previous home run, so the runner who is now on third was actually on first for Arencibia's home run, so he has already scored. Therefore we only have one man on base, Brett Lawrie, who walked after Arencibia's home run, so it's a two run home run for Reyes. No your reasoning doesn't make any sense. 10-4 Blue Jays. I like this game better.

Emilio Bonifacio, Bot 9, 1-1, None out, None on

What: Man I'm having bad flashbacks you guys. Emilio. Why. Remember when he was the dark horse in the Marlins blockbuster. Remember how well that trade worked out? I think I'm now a pessimist, goodie. Emilio doubled here and would eventually come home as the game-winning run on Rasmus' single later in the inning BUT

BUT WHAT??? The game is already over. The Jays won 10-4, it's the bottom of the ninth. OH RIGHT.

This has been a thought experiment with outfield fences. This has been 1800 words on a thought experiment with outfield fences. Baseball is cool. I like baseball.

After a terrific 2012 season, putting up a 2.06 ERA, we spent a good part of the off-season waiting for Darren Oliver to decide should I stay or should I go? After a fair bit of schmoozing by Alex, he decided to stay for one more season. I'm sure that by the end of April he was wishing that he was on some beach, somewhere.

He wasn't near as good as last year.

He had 8 holds and 3 blown saves.

Fangraphs had him at 0.7 WAR, making him worth $700,000 to Jays.

Oliver had a 4.05 FIP and 3.74 xFIP. He allowed a .291 BABIP, up from .272 last year.

His strikeout rate was down from last year (7.35/9, down from 8.26). Walks were up (2.76/9, up from 2.38). And his home runs were up more than double last year's (1.10/9, up from .48).

Darren gave up fewer line drives (19.4%, down from 21.8). More ground balls (47.5%, up from 44.2). Fewer fly balls 33.1%, from 34.0). And a lot more of the flies hit off him went out of the park (13.0%, up from 6.0). In some ways he just suffered from bad luck, or maybe just less good look than in the past.

A left-handed pitcher he was much better vs. right-handed batters (.211/.298/.321) than lefties (.324/.351/.581). He had reverse splits last year too. It's tough to use a left-handed pitcher that has a big reverse split.

Batters hit better against Darren on the road (.271/.333/.438, 3 home runs) than at home (.241/.302/.414 3 home runs). But his ERA was higher at home (4.26) than on the road (3.42). One of those small sample size things.

By month:

April: 0-1, 3.27 ERA, batters hit .289/.340/.467 with 1 home run, in 11 innings.

May: 2-0, 3.00 ERA, batters hit .261/.320/.478 with 1 home run, in 6 innings.

June: 1-0, 4.50 ERA, batters hit .250/.318/.400  with 1 home run, in 6 innings.

July: 0-1, 4.09 ERA, batters hit .205/.279/.436 with 2 home runs, in 11 innings.

August: 0-2, 5.79 ERA, batters hit .297/.366/.459 with 1 home run, in 9.1 innings.

September: 0-0, 1.59 ERA, batters hit .211/.250/.211 with 0 home runs, in 5.2 innings.

It must not have been a fun season for Darren. He got talked into coming back, was told what an important part of the team he was and then he spent much of the season pitching mop up for a lousy team.

He didn't have the best of seasons, and the huge reverse splits didn't help I'm sure. We likely would have been just as well off if he had retired, but then there's likely a value to having someone with his experience to talk to the younger pitchers in the bullpen. Or maybe there would have been more value in giving his innings to a younger pitcher.

This year, I heard more about Oliver's 'facial expressions' and body language than any other player on the team. I never understand that stuff. Why would we try to guess how much a player cares? Players doing can't win. If they get mad and break things, they are wrong. If they don't get mad and break things, they are wrong. If they smile during a loss they are wrong. If they look dour they are wrong.

Oliver's had a really good career in the majors. 20 seasons. 766 games. I hope he's happy in retirement. Retirement at 43, after make $50 million, we should all be so lucky.

The Royals will field offers for relievers Tim Collins and Aaron Crow.

The Kansas City Royals have entertained the idea of trading fireballing relievers Tim Collins and Aaron Crow, according to Bob Dutton of The Kansas City Star. Sources tell Dutton that the Royals have made the two "very available".

"Those are the guys they’d like to trade," one rival club official said, "because they’re going to start to make a little bit of money. But the key thing for them is they have a lot of other guys ready to step in…guys who might be even better."

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2013/11/25/4649005/royals-have-potential-trade-chips.html#storylink=cpy

Both Collins and Crow are entering their first year of arbitration-eligibility and each figures to earn no more than $2 million, which is quite a bargain when compared to bloated free agent contract relievers are receiving, such as the three years and $15 million the Angels gave to Joe Smith over the weekend.

Collins, who was signed by the Toronto Blue Jays as an amateur free agent in 2007, has pitched at least 50 innings for the Royals in each of the last three seasons. For his career, Collins has struck out 205 batters in 190 innings, posting a 3.51 ERA and 118 ERA+.

Three years older than Collins (27 to 24), Crow, a former two-time first round pick and All-Star in 2011, has been the better pitcher over the course of his three year career. In 174 innings, Crow has a 3.19 ERA, 130 ERA+, 2.8 WAR, and a SO/9 of 9.0.

Executives also tell Dutton that the team could be open to dealing All-Star closer Greg Holland, as well, though it is less likely considering the club will be seeking a large return for the two-time Bruce Rice Royals Pitcher of the Year award winner who has a magnificent 7.3 WAR since 2011. 2013 was a career year for Holland, as he set a Royals team record with 47 saves, to go along with a 1.21 ERA, 342 ERA+, and 103 strikeouts in 67 innings.

The Royals, who were second only to the Atlanta Braves in bullpen ERA last year, have an abundance of solid bullpen arms, and would do well to use some of that surplus to acquire an every-day second baseman or upgrade their rotation.

Though he will likely get a shot to stick in the rotation, 28-year-old right-hander Wade Davis could very well end up back in the bullpen, where he had a 2.43 ERA in 70.1 innings for the Rays in 2012. Considering the Royals just signed free agent starter Jason Vargas, the team may be best off trading away one of Collins or Crow, replacing him with Davis, and then acquiring another pitcher with top-of-the-rotation ability to complement James Shields.

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Good news, baseball geeks: the Toronto Blue Jays are hiring a baseball operations analyst as well as an analytics intern! For the analyst position, they are looking for someone to create, test, and implement "advanced baseball metrics" and to directly aid baseball operations in decision-making. The emphasis, the job posting states, will be on roster transactions, arbitration, and amateur drafts. The baseball operations analytics intern is a more junior position that will help coordinate scouting reports as well as do some statistical research and analysis. The internship is a eight-month contract and it looks like one of the biggest tasks would be to prepare for the amateur draft in June. I will focus on the operations analyst position for this post, since it seems more exciting.

Looking at the Blue Jays front office staff list from the 2013 media guide, I see that there is no "baseball operations analyst" (the closest job is the "baseball information analyst") so this seems like a new position within the club. The hire will probably take over some of the work that previously fell into the job description of Jay Satori, who recently left the Blue Jays for Apple.

It is nice to see that the Blue Jays seem to be ready to devote human resources to statistical analysis. The Houston Astros have recently invested in a lot of statistical talents, having established a department of decision sciences under the direction of Sig Mejdal. They have hired a bunch of former Baseball Prospectus writers, like Colin Wyers, Mike Fast, and Kevin Goldstein to name a few. For us who believe in sabermetrics and using mathematics to supplement traditional scouting, this is a fantastic change of approach by Major League Baseball clubs.

RESPONSIBILITIES (include, but not limited to):

• Design, test, implement, and maintain advanced baseball metrics and predictive models using statistical tools and analysis.
• Interface with the Baseball Operations leadership on player evaluation and valuation, in-game strategy, and transactions by presenting the results of analysis in a clear, understandable fashion.
• Maintain critical scouting/statistical databases and monitor the import of data feeds.
• Assist other staff on the proper use and implementation of statistical techniques, algorithms, and tools.
• Keep abreast of developments in statistical fields related to techniques, algorithms, and tools applicable to baseball research and recommend/implement them where applicable.
• Keep abreast with publically available baseball research in order to integrate new models and processes into the existing infrastructure.
• Assist in one-off research projects to answer specific questions for the Baseball Operations staff.
• Assist the Baseball Operations department with larger scale projects as directed.

QUALIFICATIONS:

• Strong baseball knowledge.
• Strong knowledge in Microsoft Office (Excel, PowerPoint, Word).
• Demonstrated strong knowledge of databases, SQL, and R and how they apply to baseball.
• Experience manipulating large baseball related data-sets.
• Demonstrated analytic skills related to sports.
• Familiarity with a scripting language such as Perl or Python is a plus.
• Up to date with current publically available baseball research and analytics.
• Professional attitude and work ethic with strong interpersonal skills.
• Bachelor’s degree in a relevant field or recent practical experience.
• Baseball playing or scouting experience are a plus.

So we can see that the position will influence player evaluation as well as in-game strategy. The qualifications indicate that they are looking for someone who knows baseball, advanced statistics, and who are able to present data in an easily understandable way... sounds like some baseball bloggers to me.

The Blue Jays are also seeking a baseball operations scouting intern.

I do encourage those who feel they are qualified to apply for the one of the jobs--opportunities like these don't come around that often. It would be a good idea if you have several pieces of analytical work ready to show the hiring committee. Perhaps try them out on us as a FanPost.

Thanks to Paul Hodgson (Blue Jays outfielder for 20 games in 1980) for the head's up through his dismissive tweet. Unfortunately that tweet was deleted and but was replaced by a nearly-identical one.

Continuing our series in which we look at where each team has been and how it might get to where it wants to go. Turn your head and cough, Toronto, it's your turn on the table.

Record: 74-88

This was a huge disappointment for the Jays, whose offseason maneuvering made them look like potential favorites in the AL East after five straight fourth place finishes (I know; I picked them to go to the playoffs). Instead, they improved by just a single game and dropped another spot in the standings.

Diagnosis: Not just some of the injuries, all of the injuries

(Wikimedia Commons)

In 2012, the Jays' promising rotation was devastated by elbow injuries to Brandon Morrow, Drew Hutchison, and Kyle Drabek, while former ace Ricky Romero fell to pieces. In the bullpen, newly acquired closer Sergio Santos pitched only five innings before getting diagnosed with a shoulder injury that required surgery. On the offensive side, vaunted slugger Jose Bautista suffered a major wrist injury that knocked him out for essentially all of the second half.

No problem, Alex Anthopoulos thought, let's get some new players. And that's what he did, acquiring R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Melky Cabrera, and Emilio Bonifacio within the span of a month. At first glance, he had upgraded three-fifths of his rotation, shortstop, left field, and had acquired a premier utility player. Things looked pretty promising up in Canada.

Then the same curse that struck the club in 2012 returned. It knocked Reyes out for 75 days with a sprained ankle. Brett Lawrie had a bad ankle too, one that kept him out for 40 games. This was after he lost half of April to a strained ribcage. Johnson missed 90 days with two separate arm injuries and had a knee injury that plagued him all year. Melky sat out with knee injuries for more than 70 games, and had a benign tumor removed from his back on August 30. Colby Rasmus lost a month with an oblique strain. Bautista lost another month and a half to a hip injury. A triceps strain kept Sergio Santos out for more than 100 days. By far the most frightening injury was suffered by J.A. Happ, when a line drive back to the mound fractured his skull, and he missed almost half the season.

In their stead, the Blue Jays turned to various solutions that proved in turn highly entertaining (Munenori Kawasaki), sad (Chien-Ming Wang and Ricky Romero), horrifying (Ramon Ortiz), and surprisingly effective (Mark DeRosa and Todd Redmond), none of whom could adequately replace the production the wounded would have provided. Significant drops in production by Dickey, Buehrle, and J.P. Arencibia just sealed the Jays' fate in 2013.

Key Stat: 4.81

That's the combined ERA of the Jays' starting pitchers in 2013, 26^th in the major leagues. It wasn't a mirage either; they finished 28^th in FIP and xFIP too. They finished 28^th in innings, 26^th in strikeouts, and 28^th in homers allowed. Dickey, Buehrle, and Johnson, who were supposed to anchor and revitalize the pitching staff, combined for a 4.53 ERA. Once again, the Jays will have to improve their pitching if they're going to get out of the cellar in the AL East.

Breakout: Colby Rasmus, Adam Lind, and Todd Redmond

Even in a terribly disappointing season, the Jays continued to coax great hitting performances out of players previously left for dead. It took a season and a half, but Rasmus clubbed the ball in 2013, even managing to not embarrass himself against lefties. Combined with excellent defense in center, Rasmus was clearly the most valuable Blue Jay on the club and his relative youth means he could hold much of that value going forward.

I'm much less optimistic about Adam Lind, who finally hit again after three straight seasons of putrid offensive performance. Like Rasmus, he benefitted from a big spike in BABIP, but unlike Rasmus, has few other skills to fall back on. Lind is already limited to first base and DH, and gives back almost as much on defense as he gains on offense when he's put out there. He has one more guaranteed year on the huge extension he signed in 2010, and whether he stays probably depends on whether Jose Bautista is still around, healthy, and ability to play defense.

Colby Rasmus (Jesse Johnson-US PRESSWIRE )

I just wanted to throw this on here because I like him so much: Redmond was a great find, plucked off of the waiver wire at the end of Spring Training, and thrust into the rotation when Toronto got desperate enough in May. There's very little that's exciting about Redmond. He's a big righty with a low-90s fastball who is an extreme fly-ball pitcher. He allows a ton of homers, but his strikeout rate and control make it easy to live with him at the back end of a rotation. If Anthopoulos acquires more pitching, he may not have a spot in Toronto. Nevertheless, I'm glad he finally got an extended shot, and happier that he made the most of it.

Breakdown: J.P. Arencibia

Arencibia got some positive reviews for improving his pitch framing skills in 2013 thanks to his work with Sal Fasano, but it's hard to see how any improvement could make up for his offensive freefall. Arencibia hit just .194/.227/.365, a 59 OPS+, with 148 strikeouts (which was typical for him) against just 18 walks. Among players with more than 400 plate appearances, only A.J. Pierzynski, Yuniesky Betancourt, and Wilin Rosario walked fewer times. Even if we remove the three passed balls and one wild pitch he allowed on Opening Day with R.A. Dickey on the mound (the only time the two were paired all season), Arencibia still ranks among the worst catchers in the game at blocking balls in the dirt. All in all, Arencibia was probably the worst regular catcher in baseball last year and is about to go to arbitration for the first time. If the Jays want to improve, his is a great spot to start.

Prescription: Fire the catching

R.A. Dickey (John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports)

That terrible Hunger Games reference was brought to you by synergy. I assume I will be paid many dollars for throwing in that reference. It's also tempting to throw in the towel and assume that a rebuild is in order, since the big 2013 push was a flop. Yet, the same pieces that made the Jays so attractive a year ago are all in place (except for Johnson) and the money is all spent. The Jays can't divest themselves of enough salary for it  to make a difference anyway, and doing so would risk alienating a fan base that has improved its attendance for four straight years. Eventually, those fans will stop coming to see a losing club, but the Jays may be able to keep expectations high with a strong offseason.

Anthopoulos has already been linked to big trades potentially involving Domonic Brown and Jeff Samardzija, and there are reports that Jose Bautista is quietly being shopped. The GM says he wants to make a big splash, but it's hard to imagine Toronto being able to deal for more talented players than are on hand. While the pitching was a huge problem in 2013, the biggest single upgrade the club could make would be to bring in a competent catcher. Jarrod Saltalamacchia is likely to be expensive, but would provide a huge upgrade on both offense and defense (which is saying something given that no one has mistaken Salty for a Gold Glover). Pierzynski is a cheaper, one-year solution, though he's too much like Arencibia to be too excited about. A better option would be to trade for Ryan Hanigan of the Reds or Chris Iannetta of the Angels, helping those teams to clear some payroll.

As for the pitching, the Jays can probably count on some bounce-back from Dickey. Brandon Morrow will be a year further removed from surgery and was having the year of his life when he went down. Drabek will also be healthy again and was strong in 11 rehab starts last year.  Hutchison had a rougher rehab, but still will be ready for spring training. J.A. Happ is a perfectly capable fourth or fifth starter.

Even after the purge that brought in Dickey and Reyes, and all their buddies, the Jays also have starting pitchers on the cusp of being able to contribute. Sean Nolin debuted last year, Aaron Sanchez should finish 2014 in the majors, and Marcus Stroman could have been up in September (seriously,read this report on Stroman and salivate). So if the Jays can't acquire a cost-controlled young pitcher like Samardzija to start 2014, there should be more than enough arms on hand to build an improved rotation to pair with an already imposing bullpen. Indeed, run prevention should not be a problem in Toronto for the third year in a row unless the voodoo curse strikes again and everyone gets hurt. Through it all, I still like the Blue Jays, and think the deals that seemed like disasters last year could wind up making the difference going forward in a tough AL East.

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There are a number of rumors around the Jays, nothing that sounds like it is sure to happen, but let's run them down:

• The Jeff Samardzija stuff hasn't died down much. The last one I heard was the Jays were offering 4 prospects, but no one is saying which 4. I don't think I'd want to loss both Stroman and Sanchez, but I don't see any 4 prospects that would do the job without them. I really want them to loss Stroman. Samardzija will be 29 in January. Over the past two seasons he's made 51 starts, totaling 388 innings, 394 strikeouts, 134 walks and a 4.10 ERA. He won't be a free agent until after the 2015 season.
• Peter Gammons is suggesting the Jays are shopping Mark Buehrle. I don't believe that, I think, as a starting pitcher that pitches 200 innings, he has more value to the Jays than he would have to any other team.
• There is a rumor that someone is going to sign Dioner Navarro, as with any free agent catcher, pitcher, middle infielder, it could be with the Jays. Or, it could be with any of half a dozen other teams. Navarro hit .300/.365/.492 in 89 games for the Cubs last year, the best numbers of his 10 year career. He had 13 home runs, his first time in the double digits. He's not thought of as a very good defensive catcher, but he couldn't be much worse than JP. He has good timing, hitting .300 for the first time just before going on the free agent market. Someone will likely be overpaying for him, I don't know that it should be the Jays.

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Do you think Moises Alou should be in the Hall of Fame?

The Hall of Fame ballot has come out and we are going to run a series of polls to see who we would vote into the Hall. We'll do 2 or 3 of these a day until we get through the ballot. I'm going to try to put the polls into a story stream so they don't fill up the whole page.

I'll go in alphabetical order, skipping some that won't get any votes.

Being an Expo fan, Moises Alou has a warm place in my heart and I've always liked the guys that didn't bother with batting glove, though the less said about what he did to 'toughen his hands' the better.  He had a pretty decent career, 332 home runs and 1287 RBI, with a really nice slash line, .303/.369/.516. And how many guys get to the majors and have their father for manager.

He played in 7 All-Star games, was 2nd in Rookie of the Year voting in 1992, got MVP votes 7 times, finishing 3rd twice and he owns 1 World Series ring.

So give us your vote.

Do you think that Jeff Bagwell should be in the Hall of Fame?

Jeff Bagwell is a real candidate for the Hall. He played 15 seasons with the Astros, as a first baseman. He hit 297/.408/.540 with 499 home runs, 1529 RBI, 202 stolen bases in 2150 games.

Jeff played in 4 All-Star games, was NL Rookie of the Year in 1991 and NL MVP in 1994. He has 1 Gold Glove and 3 Silver Slugger Awards. Baseball Reference has his career WAR at 71.6, which would be 47th all-time.

This is Bagwell's 4th year on the ballot, he has been getting closer each season. He was at 41.7% in 2011, 56.0% in 2012 and 59.6% last year.

There are suggestions that Bagwell used PEDs. I don't think there is any proof that he used, but he was friends with Ken Caminiti, which some think is guilt by association.

Major league rosters are constructed from a combination of players from drafts, free agency, trades, and waivers. Typical rosters just list where each player is but not where they came from and how the sequence of moves that were needed for the team to acquire them. I have been interested in the lineage of various Blue Jays players, and recently masterkembo posted a comment on how the recently-retired Chris Carpenter became a Blue Jay, and managed to trace a direct lineage all the way back to Al Woods, who was drafted in 15th round of the 1976 expansion draft.

Ann Frazier, the editor of fellow SB Nation blog Fear The Fin developed a "roster tree," similar to a family tree, to visualize the lineage of the San Jose Sharks back in 2010. I modified her design into a typical rapid transit route map for the Blue Jays 40-man roster. The current roster is displayed as the blue loop line, and each current player is linked to a predecessor (if they have one) via a different transit line.

Click for enlarged version. Image copyright Minor Leaguer, all rights reserved. Used with permission.

Here are some notes about the roster tree / route map:

• Only a player's most recent acquisition is shown. Edwin Encarnacion is not connected to Scott Rolen even though he was first acquired as part of a trade, because he was claimed by the Athletics in 2010 before being non-tendered and then signing with the Blue Jays as a free agent. For similar reasons, Sergio Santos is only linked to Nestor Molina, and not Orlando Hudson and Miguel Batista.
• On the other hand, since John Buck was the predecessor for Joseph Musgrove (free agent compensation) and was part of the R.A. Dickey / Josh Thole trade, he gets linked to both.
• All amateur draft picks in the compensation round came from departing free agents except for Noah Syndergaard, who was compensation for James Paxton not signing with the club. (Paxton, in turn, was a free agent compensation pick from A.J. Burnett's departure.)
• Cash involved in trades are not included in the chart, but players from cash trades can easily be spotted, as they would have no predecessor (see Miguel Olivo and Jeremy Jeffress).
• Although the Blue Jays traded manager John Farrell and David Carpenter for Mike Aviles, Farrell was not included because officially, the trade was only Carpenter for Aviles. Farrell was simply "released from his contract."
• For simplicity, all forms of free agency (amateur, minor league, major league) were combined as one symbol.
• Two players who are acquired by the same method and are at the end of a line are combined to save space and simplify the graphic.
• As mentioned by Playoffs!!!!1 in the comments of a previous post, the oldest branch of the roster tree is Kelvim Escobar, who signed as an amateur free agent in 1992, then he left as a free agent in 2003, giving the Blue Jays a compensation draft in 2004, where they selected Adam Lind.
• As mentioned by MjwW, the longest-serving member of the 40-man roster is Dustin McGowan and he is ultimately linked to Roger Clemens.
• The longest branch in terms of most players involved in a direct line: Miguel Batista and Orlando Hudson were traded for Troy Glaus, who was traded for Scott Rolen, who was traded for Zach Stewart, who was then traded for Edwin Jackson, who was traded for Colby Rasmus.
• There is no meaning to the order in which players are found on the blue loop line, nor there are any meanings to the specific shapes of each line. The map is not to scale chronologically, but some attempts were made to show the particularly longer relationships (Lind to Escobar, McGowan to Clemens).

For future versions, I am looking for some creative names for the different coloured lines, so do make suggestions in the comments. I have one for the blue line: the "Aaron Loop".