Al Yellon provides us with a report on our new catcher.
I asked Al Yellon from Bleed Cubbie Blue for a scouting report on our new catcher. Here it is, you might want to pour yourself a drink before reading. And here is a link to the BCB story on the signing.
Two years, $8 million. Talk about a guy who had a career year in a walk year and cashed in -- here's the definitive archetype for that.
Navarro's .300/.365/.492 (132 OPS+) season with 13 home runs in 240 at-bats really can't be explained at all. He had never done anything remotely close to that, ever. Was it Wrigley Field? Ah, there's the likely explanation: he hit .336/.414/.595 at home, .266/.316/.395 on the road, in almost equal numbers of PA in each place. Nine homers at Wrigley (including three in one game), four on the road. (It's not the day games at Wrigley, either; he hit about the same in day games and night games.)
So maybe Wrigley was perfect for him. The Cubs have Welington Castillo, who they like a lot and want to have as their primary starter, so they didn't have room for Navarro as a backup, and you can't blame him for wanting and taking the kind of money the Jays gave him.
You'll like him as a person -- seems like a good guy, works hard, helps out his fellow catchers -- and you'll have to like a LOT of his person, because he is a very large man. Despite this, he doesn't block pitches really well -- he had five passed balls last year (and Cubs pitchers seemed to throw a lot of dropped third strikes with him behind the plate, though there are no specific numbers on this, just my personal recollection). He's a tough, tough guy catching, though; he suffered an injury in Philadelphia last August (in a home-plate collision with Chase Utley) where he had to be driven off the field on a cart. The injury appeared season-ending, if not career-threatening. He was back in the starting lineup in three days.
The Jays could hide him at DH part of the year; he'll break down if he has to catch 120 games, I'd think. He's probably the slowest runner in the major leagues with that big body. He's got World Series experience (2008 Rays), if that counts for anything.
I see he's a .280/.323/.344 career hitter at Rogers Centre (small sample size of 101 PA), so that could be cause for concern to you.
Good luck to Dioner. I enjoyed his season in Chicago. Hope you have as much luck with him in Toronto.
In our tournament of the top moments in Yankee history, was David Cone's perfect game - in front of Yogi Berra and Don Larsen, no less - a better and more memorable performance than Jim Abbott's no -hitter amidst a heated pennant race?
The Pinstripe Alley Top Moments Tournament continues with the 1980-1999 bracket. Vote for the moment that deserves move on in the poll below.
#1: David Cone's Perfect Game
On July 18, 1999, the Yankees held "Yogi Berra Day" in the Bronx, celebrating Berra's terrific career in pinstripes, a career that saw him make 18 All-Star teams and win 13 World Series championships as a player and coach. Don Larsen, the very man who had tossed a perfect game with Berra behind the plate in the 1956 World Series, threw out the ceremonial first pitch.
While memories of that perfect performance began the afternoon, fans would leave with another pitching masterpiece fresh in their minds. On that day, David Cone turned in the best game of his career, throwing just the third perfect game in Yankee history. Coming off a season in which he'd won 20 games, posted a 3.45 ERA and a 5.2 fWAR, Cone hadn't quite replicated those levels of success in 1999. Still, he was 9-4 when the Montreal Expos (remember them?) came to the Bronx, although the Detroit Tigers had roughed up Cone is his last start to the tune of six earned runs in seven innings.
In the top of the first, the Expos' came as close to a hit as they would all afternoon. Center fielder Terry Jones smacked a pitch up in the zone to right-center field, and Cone himself later said, "I was thinking triple, right off the bat." But Paul O'Neill robbed Jones with a diving save, and Cone retired James Mouton to end the inning.
Cone stuck out the side in the third before a 33-minute rain delay halted the game. But even a break in the action couldn't knock Cone out of his rhythm. Once the weather cleared, Cone went back to work, proceeding to strike out ten on the way to retiring 27 straight batters. It was the highlight of his career, made even more special by taking place in front of Yankee legends Larsen and Berra.
Jim Abbott, despite being born without a left hand, made quite a successful career for himself as a major league pitcher. He joined the Yankees in 1993 for two years after an excellent stint with the California Angels, during which he posted fWARs of 5.4 and 4.4. His career in pinstripes was not as successful (ERAs over 4.00 and fWARs of 2.0 and 1.3 in 1993 and 1994) but still, in September of 1993, Abbott found some magic and managed to turn in a remarkable gem against the Cleveland Indians.
He might have walked five while only striking out three, but Abbott did not allow a hit in nine innings of work, mainly due to inducing 17 ground balls from the Indians' hitters. Wade Boggs saved a single in the seventh inning when he made a diving stop and threw out Albert Belle by a step. In the ninth, Kenny Lofton's bunt attempt (an attempt, it needs to be added, that enraged the Yankee Stadium crowd) fortunately drifted foul, as it almost certainly would've been a hit had it stayed fair. It was the last real chance the Indians' had to ruin Abbott's outing. The Yankees won 4-0, and Jim Abbott secured a place in the history books.
The Miami Marlins' most intriguing catching option disappeared yesterday when the Toronto Blue Jays signed free agent Dioner Navarro. Will the Fish go after deposed starter J.P. Arencibia in his stead, or does a bigger fish lie in the team's future?
Navarro's signing also signaled the end of the line for incumbent catcher J.P. Arencibia, who is suddenly without a roster spot thanks to Navarro and backup Josh Thole. The Blue Jays tried to either trade Arencibia, but they eventually non-tendered him last night. Now Arencibia is in the open market at age 28 following two bad seasons behind the plate.
This is all relevant news for the Miami Marlins, who are facing continuing problems in their quest to fill the catcher position. Navarro represented the best available player because he represented the team's desired offensive upgrade at the position. Navarro had just finished hitting .300/.365/.492 (.374 wOBA) for the Chicago Cubs last season, and even if he failed to repeat that line, it would have been a massive upgrade for the Fish. Last season, Marlins catchers hit a putrid combined .192/.249/.280 (.235 wOBA) as a group.
With Navarro off the list, the Fish have very few options left in the free agent market. The best player left is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who might expect a four-year deal worth around $40 million or so. He is coming off of a three-plus win season by most accounts and is under 30 years of age. He also fits the Marlins' need for power, as he has hit 55 homers in the last three seasons with the Boston Red Sox. The Marlins are said to be "front-runners" for Saltalamacchia's services, according to Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald.
But other than Salty, the Fish would be hard-pressed find a starting-caliber player in the market. All the remaining catchers are over the age of 30 and were primarily backups in 2013. The youngest player available is Taylor Teagarden, who is a career .206/.266/.390 (.287 wOBA) hitter. The list includes old names like Yorvit Torrealba, John Buck, and Miguel Olivo, players with no upside left. None of these options are worthwhile investments for Miami, as they are unlikely to provide improvement on offense and would certainly destabilize the defensive side.
Would Arencibia be an option? At 28 years of age, he would the youngest catcher available, and he too has power. Arencibia boasts a career .190 ISO and has hit 62 home runs in about 50 more plate appearances than Saltalamacchia over the last three years. Of course, Arencibia has significant problems at the plate, including an exorbitant strikeout rate (28.7 percent career) combined with a paltry walk rate (5.3 percent career) and poor defense. But if the Fish were looking for more upside at a low cost, Arencibia could be an option.
The other plan would be for Miami to pursue a trade. The Los Angeles Angels still have two catchers whom they could trade, and Hank Conger has been talked up at Fish Stripes as a trade target. Other than that, however, Miami would have to get creative, as most teams with surplus catching still are not planning on trading. The Fish would have to kick the tires on situations like the San Diego Padres' surplus, but there are no indications that a trade would be considered.
What do you Fish Stripers think? Where can the Marlins turn to solve their catching situation? Is Arencibia an option? Would you like a Saltalamacchia signing? Let us know in the comments!
Over at Fangraphs this morning Marc Hulet released his top 10 prospects for the Blue Jays organization. Before continuing below, go and read the article here. There was also a post up over there about the Steamer Projections for the top prospects in the system, which can be found here.
As you read, big right-hander Aaron Sanchez grabbed the top spot this year after the departure of Travis d'Arnaud last off-season. Hulet doesn't seem extremely high on Sanchez though, citing his delivery and inconsistency as possible downfalls for the 21-year-old. Sanchez gets a late 2014 or 2015 ETA slapped on him, although with the way Blue Jays handle young arms it would be surprising to see the California native in the Rogers Centre before 2015. Here's Sanchez displaying his good stuff, but inconsistent control last month in the Arizona Fall League All-Star Game:
Marcus Stroman is in his usual #2 ranking spot on these prospect lists, with Hulet noting that the Blue Jays are going to give the 5'9" righty every opportunity to be a starter in the big leagues. The first surprise was Mitch Nay finding himself in the third spot on the list. In his first season of pro ball, Nay hit .300/.364/.426 in Bluefield and it will be very exciting to see what 2014 has in store for the 2012 draftee.
Roberto Osuna's Tommy John surgery dropped him on the list to #5 behind Daniel Norris, which is a little bit surprising considering the Mexican is young enough for the surgery to not affect his development much. Hulet notes that the next game action Osuna sees will be in 2015 when the right-handed pitcher will be 20 years old.
Dominican Alberto Tirado beat out Puerto Rican A.J. Jimenez, which is another slight surprise as Tirado is only 18 years old spending all of 2013 in Bluefield. Jimenez should have a full year as the starter in Buffalo in 2014, which should be enough to show the Blue Jays brass whether they have a possible major league catcher or not. Hulet notes:
Jimenez has a chance to be a second-division everyday backstop in the Majors because the offensive bar is set pretty low for catchers. His defense alone could make him a valuable asset to a big league club, if only as a platoon or back-up player
It just so happens that Alex Anthopoulos mentioned Jimenez in a conference call this morning:
AA says catching prospect AJ Jimenez ready defensively now, wants to develop bat more. Could break through in 2014
There's no lack of question marks near the end of the list as D.J. Davis, Matt Smoral, and Sean Nolin round out the top 10. Hulet wonders if Davis might be forced to spend a third season in extended spring training due to his lack of development despite his abundance of tools.
Canadians Dalton Pompey and Tom Robson make an appearance at #13 and #14 respectively in the "next five" section, which is good to see for Blue Jays fans. Pompey will likely start in Dunedin, while Robson begins in Lansing. Here's Pompey taking a walk during extended spring training in 2013:
Here's one for Robson from 2012 that features the British Columbia native in extended spring training:
What are your thoughts on this list? Any surprises or disappointments?
Alex Anthopoulos had a conference call with the press this morning, talking about J.P. Arencibia and the Dioner Navarro signing. As usual he worked hard not to say much of interest:
On JP, he said it wasn't an easy decision not to non-tender him, that he couldn't 'speak more highly about JP' as a person. He called JP last night to let him know about the decision, said it wasn't an 'enjoyable call' but that JP took it like a professional. He said the decision wasn't made during the season, but just in the past few weeks.
About Navarro: he 'has the ability to make contact', that everyone 'raved about his game calling' and that he's a 'better fit right now'. He has 'upside' and 'may have turned a corner with his bat'. Said he wouldn't have done 3 or 4 years with Navarro.
Asked about trying to trade JP, that there was no market for him at the moment, and letting him go now was best for JP. About making JP a backup he said 'no', and mentioned that Thole had caught Dickey.
He figures that JP will 'bounce back'. That he's tough and played through injuries this year. And that JP is 'very proud'.
He was asked if the off field stuff with JP factored into the decision, he said no, said they talk to the players about Twitter, said that the league likes having the players on Twitter, but 'as a GM' he'd prefer the players stay off it.
Mostly he said that JP had a down year, had 'bad luck' but he still has the ability to be good'. He also talked about what a good Blue Jay he was and how he always help on the cross Canada trips and how he always went to the schools and hospitals when asked. Alex said JP would be missed in that way.
Alex also feels that A.J. Jimenez is 'very close' to being ready for the majors. That defensively 'he could come in and help now', depending on his health.
Asked if the team had player development issues, he listed Encarnacion, Bautista, Janssen, Loup, Lind and others as successes, saying there wasn't a problem.
That word infatuated really makes that tweet. Any other word wouldn't make that shiver go down my spine. 'Interested' wouldn't phase me, 'like' would be fine. But infatuated makes me feel like we are about to lose all our best prospects.
Anyway, Anderson is coming off an injury filled season, but has been a good starter. I'd take him if we didn't give up a lot. Please Alex, not Stroman.
Anderson seems to spend a lot of time injured, he'd fit in great as a Blue Jay starter.
The news just broke that reliever Brad Lincoln has been shipped to Philadelphia for catcher Erik Kratz and left-handed reliever Rob Rasmussen. Lincoln came to Toronto in the Travis Snider deal and became a solid pitcher out of the bullpen. The 28-year-old split time between AAA Buffalo and the big squad this year ending 2013 with a 3.98 ERA in Toronto. The righty still has four more years of team control, although he is out of options.
Ken Rosenthal first reported the news:
#Phillies announce acquisition of RHP Brad Lincoln from #Blue Jays for C Eri Kratz and LHP Rob Rasmussen.
Coming to Toronto is 33-year-old catcher Erik Kratz and 24-year-old reliever Rob Rasmussen. Kratz was originally drafted by Toronto in 2002, but was released six years later without ever making it to the major leagues. Afterwards he signed on with Pittsburgh where he made his debut, but was quickly granted free agency again. He then signed with Philadelphia and has been the back-up catcher for the Phillies during the past two seasons. He appeared in 68 games last season hitting .213/.280/.386 with 9 home runs. Kratz kind of fits the profile of departed J.P. Arencibia when you consider the fact that he has struggled to take walks in the big leagues and strikes out way too much. Kratz's service time currently sits at 1.158 going into the 2014 season.
Minor Leaguer also found out a fun fact about Kratz:
Fun fact! Erik Kratz played in last season of three Blue Jays affiliates: Medicine Hat Blue Jays, New Haven Ravens, and Syracuse Chiefs
Rob Rasmussen is a left-handed pitcher from California who was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2010 draft by the Marlins. He was then included in the Carlos Lee trade to Houston and the Michael Young trade to Philadelphia this September. Rasmussen has never appeared in a major league game and spent 2013 scuffling in the Dodgers farm system. He is 5'9", which is the same height as fellow Blue Jays pitcher Marcus Stroman.
He has a 4-pitch mix and while he maxes out at 92 mph, it’s his curveball, slider, and location of his pitches that allow him to get by. While I don’t think Rob will ever be a great big league pitcher, I do think he has what it takes to eventually settle into the back of a big league rotation. He’s proven he can compete with the best of them, and it will be interesting to see where his career goes from here.
So essentially it's an "okay" reliever without options going one way for a below average catcher and a reliever that might figure it out and end up being a big leaguer. There will be a lot more added to the story as it develops.
The Blue Jays don't need Dioner Navarro to recreate his 2013 production to justify his contract, but they need him to show flashes of what made him so effective as a Cub.
When the Blue Jays signed Dioner Navarro on Monday the reactions among Jays fans were mixed. Most were happy to see J.P. Arencibia go, but there was a fair amount of uncertainly as to whether Navarro was capable of handling a starting catching job given that he hasn't been a full time starter since 2009. Many thought that the Blue Jays were overpaying for Navarro based on the fact that he excelled at the plate in limited action last year. In 2013 Navarro produced a .300/.365/.492 line in 266 plate appearances. Among catchers with 250+ plate appearances Navarro's slugging percentage was 1st in the major leagues and his wOBA was second to Joe Mauer.
The concern is that there is no way Navarro will replicate those numbers and therefore this is a foolish signing. However, Navarro isn't getting paid to produce numbers like that again. Dioner Navarro is only 29, if teams were confident he could hit .300/.365/.492 as a starter going forward then his contract would be worth tens of millions not eight million. He doesn't need to repeat last year's results to be a capable starter who is worth his contract. Steamer projects a .251/.321/.398 line for Navarro with 1.7 WAR next year. That line would be just fine given what the Blue Jays are paying him and what they had in J.P. Arencibia.
However, to believe Steamer's projection you have to buy into at least some of the improvements Navarro displayed last year. After all between Dioner Navarro's All-Star season in 2008 (even then he was only a 2.2 WAR player) and last season his career numbers have looked like this:
Year
PA
BB%
K%
ISO
BABIP
AVG
OBP
SLG
WAR
2009
410
4.4%
12.4%
.104
.231
.218
.261
.322
-0.6
2010
142
8.5%
14.1%
.065
.223
.194
.270
.258
-0.4
2011
202
9.9%
17.3%
.131
.210
.193
.276
.324
-0.3
2012
73
2.7%
16.4%
.159
.321
.290
.306
.449
0.3
Total
827
6.3%
14.3%
.109
.233
.215
.270
.323
-0.9
That is pretty putrid. In fact, among catchers with 800 or more plate appearances Navarro had the 2nd worst WAR during this time period. The only guy who was worse was Jeff Mathis, and considering Jeff Mathis might have magical powers there is probably a fairly solid argument that Navarro was the worst. Overall it's not very encouraging to hear your team has signed the worst catcher of a fairly recent four year period.
However, in 2013 Navarro was fantastic with the bat. While hitters who break out in their late twenties are rare, the phenomenon is not unheard of. The Blue Jays have the two most obvious examples in recent history with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. I'm not comparing Navarro to those players and crowning him a bona fide stud, but at the same time I think it's unfair to just dismiss everything Navarro accomplished outright and label it a fluke. As a reminder this is what Dioner Navarro did in last season:
PA
BB%
K%
ISO
BABIP
AVG
OBP
SLG
WAR
266
8.6%
13.5%
.192
.307
.300
.365
.492
1.7
Looking at this line it is an interesting one to try and pick apart. When trying to figure out whether a performance is a fluke or real improvement the first place the eyes go is to the BABIP. On the surface Navarro's .307 BABIP in 2013 looks downright normal, but he is a notoriously slow runner who has had some trouble with pop ups in the past which has resulted in a career .273 BABIP. As a result, the .307 BABIP appears to be inflated, but not grossly so. The next thing I like to look at when evaluating changes in a player is walk and strikeout rates. Walks and strikeouts are hard to fake, and they stabilize early, so a significant change in either, even in a relatively small sample, could indicate something significant. Fluctuations in walk and strikeout numbers could be indicative of changes in aggressiveness or swinging more for power or contact. The problem here is that Dioner Navarro's walk and strikeout rates last year are almost exactly in line with his career averages.
Really the thing that stands out the most is his power. Navarro's .192 ISO is well above his career average of .120 and by far the best mark of his career. His 13 home runs were a career best with his second best being the nine home runs he hit in 2008 in 168 more plate appearances. One explanation that has been put forth for this increase in home runs is the conditions at Wrigley Field that favor hitters. However, according to ESPN park factors the Rogers Centre is easier to hit home runs in than the friendly confines (1.289 vs. 1.115 last season). The following picture shows Navarro's home run landing spots courtesy of the ESPN Home Run Tracker:
While this isn't an array of moonshots it doesn't look like Navarro is leaning on cheap dingers either. It's hard to see a home run of that bunch that wouldn't be gone in Toronto. According the ESPN home run tracker Dioner Navarro's home runs would leave an average of 21 MLB ballparks each. He did have three dubious home runs that would leave only 2, 5, and 9 parks respectively, but he also had five home runs that would be gone in any ballpark and two more than would leave the yard in 28 out of the MLB's 30 venues.
It's clear that Dioner Navarro was hitting the ball harder in 2013 than he ever had before. The question is how he was doing it. Looking deeper into the number it appeared that Navarro was doing something he's never really done before: mashing fastballs. Here is what Navarro did to "Hard" pitches (fastballs, cutters and sinkers) in 2013:
Dioner Navarro laid waste to fastballs in the strike zone last year. That isn't altogether uncommon, but the extent to which he did so was impressive. In the years between 2007 (the beginning of the PitchFx era) and 2012 Navarro's production against "Hard" pitches looked like this:
Not nearly as impressive. When we break out the charts the difference seems even more significant:
Time Period
AB
AVG
SLG
ISO
HR
BABIP
2007-2012
842
.265
.404
.139
23
.272
2013
150
.360
.620
.260
11
.350
Navarro hit almost half as many home runs on Hard pitches in a single year as he did during the majority of his career, including his best seasons. Measuring how a player does against a particular pitch is flawed because it only really looks at the end of the at-bat, but when Navarro put fastballs into play last year he destroyed them.
In particular, Navarro did much better than he had before against traditional four seam fastballs:
Time Period
Foul%
Whiff%
Line Drive%
Pop Up%
HR%
2007-2012
21.65%
5.53%
3.61%
2.65%
0.67%
2013
17.26%
7.95%
6.58%
1.10%
1.64%
It's never nice to see more whiffs, but that is consistent with a player selling out for power more often. The increase in line drives and home runs and decrease in foul balls and popups suggests to me that he is putting better wood on the heaters he's seeing. His career low popup rate (7.6% compared to a career 12.6%) really sticks out in his spray chart:
At the end of the day the sample size for Dioner Navarro's 2013 season is too small to say anything definitive. A lot of different things can happen in 266 plate appearances and Navarro's increased production may well be nothing more than a glorified hot streak. When in doubt it is always best to assume a player will perform around his career averages. The problem with the Navarro is that his career averages are the product of such lows and highs (comparative to the lows, it's not like he's ever been Miguel Cabrera) that it's hard to pin down what you are getting offensively.
I don't think that anyone truly believes that Dioner Navarro is the big time hitter he was last year. That doesn't mean that we should pretend like 2013 never happened. Navarro's 2013 production is definitely a massive outlier from what it is reasonable to expect from him. However, the man was on pace for 25-30 home runs over a full season having never cracked double digits before. It's hard to believe he isn't doing anything differently. Small things like Navarro controlling his pop up rate and perhaps doing a better job of catching up to the fastball could help him carry over some of his gains from last season into 2014.
When the Blue Jays signed Dioner Navarro they weren't counting on him being one of the top offensive catchers in the league. However, given that his defense is somewhat suspect he will have to produce something with the bat. Next year is unlikely to be a repeat of the previous year for Navarro, but I think he will show that 2013 isn't quite as much of a fluke as some people imagine. The Blue Jays are counting on it. Although they haven't bet too much on Navarro financially they have tabbed him as their starting catcher in a year where they have aspirations of competing. If 2013 means nothing and Navarro is more like the player we saw from 2009-2012 then the Blue Jays fans are going to have another punching bag to drive off of Twitter and out of town. I suspect we'll see a different story this time around.
It seems we have a habit of trading left-handed hitting, former big time prospects to the Pirates.
Trading Lind would open up the DH spot for Melky Cabrera, and Anthony Gose and/or Moises Sierra could slip into his spot. We'd want someone to be able to spell Edwin Encarnacion at first, but Moises is working out out at the position. Maybe he could play there once or twice a week.
What would you want back for Lind? We aren't going to get Jameson Taillon. I'm thinking more second basemen. The Pirates have Neil Walker at second. Jody Mercer is second on their depth charts. I'd like him:
And we need a d'Arnaud back in the organization. Or maybe we'd rather try to get a pitcher, but I'm not sure who the Pirates would be willing to give up. And I really do want a decent second baseman, no offense Ryan.
Anyway, what do you think, what do you think the Jays could get back for Adam?
We have the results of our Hall of Fame polls. We would vote 8 guys into the Hall. Of course, we had the advantage of not being limited to only being allowed to vote for 10. No chance the BBWAA vote in that many (though it would be a good thing to get rid of some of the overload on the ballot.
I'm happy we would put Tim Raines into the Hall. I have a soft spot for Fred McGriff, but it would be tough to get to 75% for all the worthy candidates.
And I plan on hunting down the person that voted no on Maddux.
The Toronto Chapter of the BBWAA voted for the Blue Jays Awards (hey Minor Leaguer, have they given you membership yet?).
Player of the Year is Edwin Encarnacion. He was the unanimous choice. Back when we did our own poll Edwin won too, but not unanimously. Colby had 22% of the vote. Edwin hit .272/.370/.534 with 36 home runs and 104 RBI. And, one an injury fulled time, he played the 2nd most games, one short of Adam Lind's 143. Edwin wins for the second year in a row.
Pitcher of the Year is Casey Janssen. It is his second win in a row as well. He had 34 saves, in 36 tries and a 2.56 ERA. Casey won our vote too, getting 46% of the vote.
Rookie of the Year, is Todd Redmond, more or less by default. He went 4-3, with a 4.32 ERA in 17 game, 14 starts. He also had 76 strikeouts in 77 innings.
Mark DeRosa gets the John Cerutti award for ummmmm goodwill, cooperation and character as displayed by the late John Cerutti. The 'good guy' award:
DeRosa receives the honour after completing his 16th and final season for his off field contributions this past season that represent what the award was designed to signify. The veteran infielder carried himself exemplary on and off the field regardless of the situation and is a well deserved recipient
The Rangers had serious trade discussions with the Blue Jays about catcher J.P. Arencibia before he was non-tendered on Monday, according to industry sources.
A trade was close to being completed but the Rangers were reluctant to add another arbitration-eligible player. The Rangers were willing to do a trade if Arencibia was willing to agree to a contract that would have avoided arbitration.
So, it sounds like the Rangers wanted J.P, to take a contract that would have been far less than what he would have got in arbitration. JP, on the other hand, must have figured the Jays would have tendered him a contract. A miscalculation on his part. But, if he would have taken a deal with the Rangers, it would have guaranteed money.
Anyway, now the Rangers can negotiate a contract with him, I'm sure he'll be signing for a less than the $2.7 million he would have likely seen from arbitration.
There is question for you...give us your best guess for who will sign him and how much JP will be paid next season. I think the Rangers will offer him about $1 million to be their backup catcher and hope he remembers how to hit.
Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports wrote an article recently about the trade market for the Tampa Bay Rays lefty David Price, noting that the Seattle Mariners seem to have the inside track. Price, a 28-year-old left-handed starter, has two more years of team control and the Rays are trying to maximize their return for him before he reaches free agency. With Price being a super-two player, his arbitration salary has already reached levels that put a strain on the low payroll Rays and they're looking to cash in on him now. MLB Trade Rumors predicts a 2014 arbitration salary of $13.1 million for Price, which would make him the most expensive player on the Rays by a little bit.
The popular rumour at this time is that the Mariners are willing to include top prospect Taijuan Walker in the deal as well as major league players. That's a significant offer for two years of David Price, especially in a division where both Oakland and Texas are also going all in for the next few seasons. Seattle has been linked with every big time free agent this offseason as well including Jacoby Ellsbury and Robinson Cano. Although paying for both Price and Cano would be a huge financial commitment, it would at the very least make Seattle a possible playoff contender.
From the Blue Jays point of view, it's questionable whether Alex Anthopoulos would be willing to match that deal. Trading for a Cy Young pitcher didn't go so well last year after all. To beat the Mariners deal, you'd have to imagine that either Aaron Sanchez or Marcus Stroman would have to be included in the deal along with other prospects or established big leaguers with affordable contracts. Sending Adam Lind to the Tampa Bay to replace James Loney is a possibility, but Lind's contract wouldn't exactly be considered cheap in the Rays' eyes.
It seems that the Blue Jays being included as players in this deal is just another case of Alex Anthopoulos making sure he at least inquires about every available player. It's debatable what it actually takes to get Price north of the border, but I don't think I'd be too upset if it was along the lines of Aaron Sanchez, Ryan Goins and Anthony Gose for David Price, possibly with Jose Lobaton thrown in. I'm still not sure if the Rays agree to that deal considering the type of players that the Mariners are rumoured to be throwing at them.
What do you folks think about this Thursday morning rumour?
Ben Nicholson-Smith tells us that the Blue Jays are one of a handful of teams looking at Jamey Carroll. Carroll will be 40 in February and last had a decent season, with the bat, in 2011.
I so much hate the old guy/clubhouse leader role that we seem to have to fill every year. Omar Vizquel, Mark DeRosa, before that Kevin Millar. Guys that at one time were good baseball players but that time was past by the time we signed them (yeah I get that I'm being overly mean to DeRosa who wasn't all that bad with us).
Vizquel was such a good clubhouse influence that the Yunel stuff happened and he was more interested in telling us that it wasn't such a big deal.
DeRosa, by all accounts, was a great clubhouse leader and yet we still managed to finish last. He was, apparently, great with Brett Lawrie, but then why couldn't we hire a coach that could do the same hand holding with Brett. And if he was such a great clubhouse leader, why couldn't he have talked to J.P. Arencibia about not starting fights with the media? Or was he only a clubhouse leader for one guy? Derosa would have been okay, if he had just played against lefties, but we always have too many injuries for the 25th man to be used sparingly.
Anyway, looks like the Jays are looking Carroll for the old guy that we hope won't play, but will end up playing playing far more than any of us would like.
I'd much rather a younger guy that will be able to handle the work when we run into injuries.
In one of the bigger surprises this offseason, the Seattle Mariners were the winners of the Robinson Cano sweepstakes, signing the superstar second baseman to a ten-year, $240 million contract as first reported by Enrique Rojas. The 31-year old Dominican was the top free agent in the market this offseason, and it was expected by many that he would re-sign with the New York Yankees, but it appears that the Mariners simply offered more years and dollars for his services--the Yankees reportedly did not offer Cano more than $200 million.
#Mariners and Cano agree. $240 million/10 years. Physical next monday in Seattle
Another former Yankee, Curtis Granderson, is leaving the division. The 32-year-old Granderson, who had three solid years with the Yankees between 2010-2012 before J.A. Happ and Cesar Ramos derailed his 2013 season, is moving across town to sign with the New York Mets according to Joel Sherman.
#Mets have a 4-yr agreement with Curtis Granderson, the Post has learned
Reportedly, Granderson will get $60 million for four years of service to the Mets. Granderson will miss the Yankee Stadium's right field stands, but he will still be a powerful threat behind David Wright in the lineup.
Back to Robinson Cano, although some Blue Jays fans (author included) held a tiny hope that he would be donning a Blue Jays uniform in 2014, it is perhaps good news--at least in the short run--he and Granderson are out of the Yankees lineup and out of the A.L. East. Despite signing Jacoby Ellsbury and Brian McCann, not having to pay for Robinson Cano means that the Yankees might be able to fly under the $189 million luxury tax threshold this season, unless they sign someone like Shin-Soo Choo and Alex Rodriguez's 2014 suspension gets upheld. Being under the $189 million mark in 2014 means that their luxury tax rates reset for 2015, going from 50% down to 17.5%. That, plus the two compensation draft picks the Yankees will receive in June 2014, benefits them going forward.
Of course, this is great news for the fans in Seattle. The Mariners' rotation is fronted by Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma and other teams would fear that combination, but who will surround Cano in the lineup? I don't know if I can see a legitimate "powerhouse" if Cano is surrounded by the likes of Dustin Ackley, Nick Franklin, Michael Saunders, and Justin Smoak like come Opening Day. I would hope that their front office has plans to make a few more additions to make a legitimate run in 2014--one, or both, of Ackley and Franklin would be moved.
It's crazy. It's irresponsible. It is without question an overpay in an attempt to change the culture surrounding the Seattle Mariners. And right now, I don't care. Robinson Cano is one of the best players in baseball, and he's now a Seattle Mariner. Before we get caught up in the financial implications, just enjoy that Seattle just landed a star without giving up any future ones of their own. Seattle is relevant. That's a beautiful thing.
Yes, it is a bit irresponsible, and there are certainly good examples of large, lengthy contracts that have not panned out well. However, we have also seen recent examples of teams being able to move big contracts--Vernon Wells, Adrian Gonzalez, and Prince Fielder being just a few examples. The Cano deal might not turn the Mariners into a postseason contender, but having both Cano and Hernandez locked in through 2020 is certainly making the team in the northwestern corner of the league, using Weber's words, relevant again. Hopefully that will get more local fans out to the games (although it means Vancouver fans should grab tickets to the Jays' series soon). They will likely need to move some of their future pieces to fill out the team, but I am very happy for them and even happier that Robinson Cano is out of the Jays' division.
Franklin is a 6'1" 195 lb. second baseman who was drafted 27th overall in the 2009 draft out of his Florida high school. After showing unexpected pop in the minor leagues, Franklin shot up top prospect lists and was finally promoted to the Majors this past season. After debuting on May 27th, Franklin appeared in 102 games mainly playing second base and hitting .225/.303/.382 with 12 home runs. The switch hitter struck out 27.4% of the time, which is an issue, but he's also had high walk rates throughout his career. None of the metrics loved his defence, but scouting reports of Franklin seem to consistently note that he would be an average second baseman that plays due to his bat. Due to the different ways defence is measured in WAR he had a 0.4 fWAR and a 2.3 rWAR.
With Dustin Ackley, Brad Miller, and Nick Franklin all on the roster as middle infielders, Seattle will surely try to move one of them and it seems that Franklin would likely be the one that goes due to his lack of ability to play shortstop. The Florida native still has six more years of team control, although there's a possibility he ends up as a super-two player due to his early debut in 2013.
Many teams will be calling up the Mariners today checking the price on the various infielders that Cano has made expendable. Alex Anthopoulos will likely be one of those incoming calls and he has the major league pieces that the Mariners will be looking for to bolster their 2014 roster. Seattle will be working very hard to build around Cano as many parts of their team look quite poor right now including their outfield. With Raul Ibanez, and Jason Bay leaving to free agency and Michael Morse being traded during the season, Seattle is extremely thin in the outfield. It would be assumed that Anthony Gose would be an obvious piece in this deal to go to Seattle and roam the rather large Safeco Field centre field. If that was what it took for Toronto to shore up their second base position then I feel most Blue Jays fans would be okay with it.
Here's example of the pop that comes from Franklin's small frame:
Since it's always fun to think of trade scenarios, I would be happy with Anthony Gose and Brett Cecil for Nick Franklin. It's difficult to gauge how much value Franklin has and it would be hard to give up Cecil, but shoring up the second base position would be worth it in my eyes.
-UPDATE-
Dave Szymborski of ESPN had a look at the WAR projections of Robinson Cano and Nick Franklin for the next decade. Does it mean much? Not really, but it's cool to look at:
Here are the 10year ZiPS for Franklin/Cano, as suggested by a tweet that's really far back in my timeline somewhere. pic.twitter.com/bHHfnTJc7s
According to a major league source, the Rangers have reached an agreement with J.P. Arencibia on a one-year deal that would pay him around $1 million in base salary. The deal is pending a physical. Based on the weather situation, it's unclear when the Rangers would be able to get that finalized.
I'm not sure how bad the weather is, down in Dallas, but looking out my Calgary window, I'm sure I would trade with them. $1 million seems like the right amount, I'm sure if that is what JP would have received from the arbitrator, he'd still be a Blue Jay, if one that was more likely to be playing in the minors.
Anyway, good luck JP, I hope things go well for you. I really don't have any bad feeling towards him, he seems like a good guy and newly married, it just didn't work out here. Not being a great baseball player doesn't make you a bad guy.
Oh, and the good part is I won a bet.
Update:
It might be more money than originally thought:
JP Arencibia will receive about $2M on rangers deal for 2014
So you may have heard that the Mariners just gave Robinson Cano eleventy billion dollars to camp out at Safeco's second base for the next three decades. Whatever you think of this development, it seems pretty clear that the Mariners are going to have to do something with Dustin Ackley and Nick Franklin, who are right now now probably worriedly staring at their cellphones and thinking about all that paint they just bought for their new Queene Anne condos.
Twitter has shown great aplomb this morning, with pundits and fans pointing out that the Mariners still don't have a good outfield as if they didn't think about that before signing the top free agent infielder of the past few years. You fools forgot you ALREADY HAD TWO SECOND BASEMEN! This whole thing sounds like more of the usual Jack Z and Howard Lincoln tomfoolery! Except not this time. These are the kinds of trade chips every team wishes they had in trying to rebuild teams from the ground up, and the Mariners not only have two of them, but they don't have to rely on the risk of shipping a top prospect and gutting the farm in the process. Now granted, the offseason is far from over. And when that happens please don't copy and paste that last sentence I typed and spit it back in my face.
So put the Taijuan fears back in the bag for another time. Instead, let's look to something we do know: the Mariners have some pretty big decisions to make about Dustin Ackley and Nick Franklin, and everyone knows it, so their hand is out. Because of this, something is probably going to happen sooner rather than later--at next week's meetings perhaps? What are the possibilities? Let's take a look.
1. The Mariners keep both, start Franklin in AAA, keep Ackley in OF
Yeah this isn't going to happen.
2. The Mariners trade Nick Franklin
I think this is the most likely outcome of this whole situation. Franklin's value is perceived to be quite a bit higher than Ackley at the moment, for better or worse, and despite a rough second half to his rookie season, he's still thought of around the league as a valuable asset. Plus he has a big helmet that will make bobblehead nights quite a bit more profitable, and fun!
It's not just front offices that are high on Franklin. As ESPN's Dan Szymborski pointed out on twitter this morning, ZiPS projects Franklin and Cano to have almost identical WAR over the next ten years:
Franklin
Cano
2014
3.3
5.5
2015
3.4
5.2
2016
3.6
5.0
2017
3.6
4.6
2018
3.6
4.0
2019
3.5
3.3
2020
3.5
2.8
2021
3.5
2.2
2022
3.3
1.6
2023
2.9
1.1
TOTAL
34.1
35.3
Now, of course, who knows what's actually going to happen. But that's the beauty of it all, and that's exactly what makes Nick Franklin more attractive than Dustin Ackley. I can get lost in Captain Cardboard's eyes too, but I don't know if everyone shares that sentiment.
So where is Nick Franklin going to end up? I keep seeing his name attached to the Royals in pure speculation, but that seems a bit redundant after they picked up Emilio Bonifacio last August, who doubled his wRC+ after leaving Toronto. It's common knowledge that the Mariners covet Billy Butler, and while Franklin alone absolutely wouldn't be enough to get him, that puts the ball in KC's court. But I don't see them making that move. SB Nation's Bluebird Banter suggests the Blue Jays could have their eyes on Franklin, and there are, of course, the ever growing David-Price-for-Taijuan-Walker-and-Everyone-Else-They-Shouldn't-Package-Together rumors. It would be madness to add Franklin in with Walker in a deal to the Rays, but the thought of that front office valuing someone like Nick Franklin is about as surprising to me as all the coffee and rain tweets coming from New York writers this morning. So yes--Franklin is probably gone. Where? I don't know.
3. The Mariners trade Dustin Ackley
Ackley's move to the outfield was a perfect metaphor for last year's baseball season, but it's not last year anymore. Well actually, it is still 2013, but you know what I'm trying to do here. Now that the Mariners have Robinson Cano, Brad Miller, and Willie Bloomquist, there is no way Ackley sees that side of the infield on this team again. If he sticks, he's certainly going to be in the outfield, and if the rest of this offseason goes the way that Jack Z is implying it will...Ackley probably going to be the fourth guy out there.
It would be pretty wild for the Mariners to land Choo and Beltran, though stranger things have happened. Regardless, they are going to be out shopping in that trade market like it's Black Friday all winter long, and it's probably going to take a trade to get the outfield looking like they want it to, rather than lucking out on free agents alone.
The middle of the Mariners infield may be looking like a done thing, and Ackley may only have a future with this team as an outfielder. But that's just the Mariners: last year's little project was predicated on the state of the roster and the plans for the future of this ballclub, plans that look nothing like other teams' plans, on a ballclub that quite honestly doesn't--and didn't--look like any other. Ackley has managed to keep his production at juuuust enough of a level that he's probably still on someone's wish list. Second base. Outfield. Shortstop, which would be dumb but, you know.
The problem with Ackley, though, is that the whole outfield thing also sent a pretty clear message to the rest of the league that the Mariners were ready to move on to Nick Franklin in the infield, despite the defensive loss they knew they would be taking on. Ackley was good for a Def rating of 6.1 in 2011 and 5.7 in 2012, and he dropped to -3.7 in the outfield last year. Meanwhile, Nick Franklin put up a solid -4.7 in Ackley's old spot at second. And this is what the Mariners WANTED. It's not that Ackley isn't going to be traded because of this, it's that he isn't nearly as valuable as he used to be. He's probably going to have to be a part of a package to get anything sexy in return, and while the Mariners have made some silly decisions in recent years, I'm not sure they let Dustin Ackley go for a half eaten sandwich and cold cup of coffee either. Unless they get crazy good in the next couple of weeks, and in that case, LET ER RIP.
If I had to guess, I'd say the Mariners shop Ackley in deals for players like Matt Kemp and David Price, and if they don't get any bites, he starts the year on the bench in the outfield. They've invested a lot into Ackley, and those boxes of unclaimed bobbleheads aren't going to sell themselves.
4. The Mariners trade Dustin Ackley and Nick Franklin
For this paragraph, just combine all the words from sections 2 and 3 and make one, big super paragraph that is just as crazy as today's hot stove madness.
5. The Mariners move Dustin Ackley to their analytics department, trade in blank stares and accidental walks for actual analysis
50/50 on this one.
6. The Marinershire Nick Franklin to be the new dugout cop
Also got a good feeling about this
7. Something happens that we don't currently know, but it involves one or both of Ackley and Franklin leaving, relegating the following video highlights into the same deep drawer of obscurity that includes videos from Cliff Lee and Yuniesky Betancourt
Goodbye, sweet prince(s). It's been real. But Robinson Cano, so, well...
Blake Tekotte came to the White Sox last offseason from the San Diego Padres in exchange for Brandon Kloess. In 20 games with the Sox last season, Tekotte hit .226/.306/ .355 with one home run and one stolen base in four attempts. While he had been on the 25-man roster at multiple points during the season, he wasn't included in the September callups, putting his future with the team in question.
Switch-hitting first baseman Mike McDade has been the man of mystery on the White Sox 40-man roster for much of the past season. He began the 2013 season in the Indians organization after several seasons with the Blue Jays. After hitting .230/.313/.284 in April for Triple-A Columbus, the Indians released him. The Sox swooped in and signed McDade in early May and added him to the 40-man roster. He then hit .254/.313/.390 for Charlotte. Combine that with the signing of Jose Abreu and he became a likely candidate to be removed from the 40-man roster. That day has finally come.
With this move, the 40-man roster goes back to 38. The White Sox press release from the Sox says 37, but the Ronald Belisario deal hasn't been finalized, so pencil him in. These moves mean the Sox are eligible for the Rule 5 draft again.
