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Can we please learn from Expos example? The Blue Jays need a second baseman!

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I'm sure you've all seen this FanGraphs post from Jeff Sullivan about the worst position on a contending team, but if you haven't, go read it.

First, thank you Jeff for calling the Blue Jays a contending team. I'm not sure I'd make that judgement, but I'm all for optimism. And, thank you for the projected WAR (0.3) from Ryan Goins and Maicer Izturis, which also seems fairly optimistic. Maicer was a -2.1 and, though I'd expect some bounce back from that, if he gets up to replacement level, it would be a minor miracle or perfect just a lot of sitting on the bench.

FanGraphs rates Ryan Goins at a 0.4 WAR last year, all on the strength of a 33.1 UZR/150, which isn't going to happen again. Among regular 2013 second basemen, the top UZR/150 was Darwin Barney, from the Cubs, with a 15.5. I don't think Goins is twice as good as the best in the game. His glove is good, but not out of this world good. His bat? If all goes well, he might hit about as well as John McDonald did.

People say a reason to watch baseball is that you might see something that you haven't seen before. I'm finding that one of my reasons to watch ball is that I see patterns that I have seen before. When I was younger, oh so much younger than today (yeah Tom, put in references that no one younger than you will get), my Expos put together teams with great strengths, with players like Gary Carter, Andre Dawson, Tim Raines, Tim Wallach, Steve Rogers, and others. But they wouldn't win their division, because they would punt one or two positions.

Like, for example, second base, where for most of 5 seasons they ran Rodney Scott out to waste a spot in the batting order. As an Expo, Rodney hit .226/.313/.283 and, here is the amazing part, he played 421 games for Montreal. Better yet, he generally hit second in the order. Can you imagine?

Defensively? He was damn near average (on a good day), though he made far more errors that you'd like to see from you second baseman. Oh, he'd steal a bunch of bases but that didn't make up for his many faults.

Here we had a team with several very good players (including 2 Hall of Famers and 1 should-be Hall of Famer), but they were willing to piss away wins by playing someone for whom baseball should have been a spectator sport.

I'm still thinking that Alex is just teasing us with this idea that Goins and Izturis playing second this year, but if he's not kidding us, we could be following that same road my Expos went down. I mean, a lot of things would have to go right for us to contend, but if those things did go right and we miss out on the playoffs for the want of a major league second baseman? What's the line about those that fail history are doomed to repeat it?

Oh, and by major league second baseman, I don't mean Yuniesky Betancourt. That's a joke that I wouldn't be able to laugh off.


Edwin Encarnacion: Power, without the strikeouts

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Power hitters often pair their long-ball tendencies with a pile of strikeouts. But Edwin Encarnacion is something altogether unique in today's game—a power hitter who rarely strikes out.

Any baseball fan who watched the Toronto Blue Jays in 2013 likely remembers mostly heartbreak and disappointment. The Jays, after all, had very little go right for them en route to a last-place finish in the AL East.

Lost amid the team’s struggles, however, was the tremendous season that Edwin Encarnacion had at the plate. For the second straight year, Toronto’s first baseman/designated hitter was one of the American League’s best hitters, posting a 145 wRC+ and a .272/.370/.534 line in 621 plate appearances. Most impressive, at least in my mind, was the 10.0% strikeout rate that Encarnacion maintained throughout the season. That’s an excellent mark for just about anyone, never mind a player who hit 36 home runs.

In fact, a closer look at 2013’s leaders in strikeout rate reveals that Encarnacion finished with the eight-lowest strikeout percentage in baseball. Considering that conventional wisdom labels power hitters as burly sluggers with (at times extreme) contact issues, Encarnacion seemed to me as something of an outlier. Indeed the strikeout rate leaderboard among hitters from last season is littered with players who are almost polar opposites of Encarnacion. After all, guys like Alberto Callaspo, Erick Aybar, and Alexei Ramirez aren’t exactly known for their abilities to hit baseballs a long way, rather relying on superior contact ability and a far less fly-ball oriented approach.

All of which got me thinking about how rare a player with Encarnacion’s current skillset truly is. Using Baseball Reference’s Play Index, then, I simply searched for all hitters dating back to 2003 who finished the season with a slugging percentage greater than .500 and a strikeout rate lower than 10%.

The results weren’t exactly surprising, but they did reveal a few interesting takeaways:

RkPlayerHRSLGSOPAYearAgeTmLgGABRHBAOBPOPSPos
1Albert Pujols49.67150634200626STLNL143535119177.331.4311.102*3/H
2Albert Pujols47.65864700200929STLNL160568124186.327.4431.101*3/HD
3Albert Pujols46.65752692200424STLNL154592133196.331.4151.072*3/DH
4Barry Bonds45.81241617200439SFGNL147373129135.362.6091.422*7/HD
5Albert Pujols43.66765685200323STLNL157591137212.359.4391.106*73/HD
6Albert Pujols41.60965700200525STLNL161591129195.330.4301.039*3/H
7Gary Sheffield39.60455678200334ATLNL155576126190.330.4191.023*9/H
8Aramis Ramirez38.56163660200628CHCNL15759493173.291.352.912*5/H
9Albert Pujols37.54158651201131STLNL147579105173.299.366.906*3/5H
10Albert Pujols37.65354641200828STLNL148524100187.357.4621.114*3/HD4
11Carlos Lee37.54065695200630TOTML161624102187.300.355.895*7D/H
12Edwin Encarnacion36.53462621201330TORAL14253090144.272.370.904*3D5
13Albert Pujols32.56858679200727STLNL15856599185.327.429.997*3/H
14Carlos Lee32.52863697200731HOUNL16262793190.303.354.882*7/DH
15Vladimir Guerrero32.56548594200530LAAAL14152095165.317.394.959*9D/H
16Joe Crede30.50658586200628CHWAL15054476154.283.323.828*5/H
17Nomar Garciaparra28.52461719200329BOSAL156658120198.301.345.870*6/H
18Vladimir Guerrero27.54762660200732LAAAL15057489186.324.403.950*9D
19Luis Gonzalez26.53267679200335ARINL15657992176.304.402.934*7/H
20Robinson Cano25.52063674200926NYYAL161637103204.320.352.871*4/H
21Sean Casey24.53436633200429CINNL146571101185.324.381.915*3/HD
22Yadier Molina22.50155563201229STLNL13850565159.315.373.874*2/H3
23Nomar Garciaparra20.50530523200632LADNL12246982142.303.367.872*3/H
24Brian Giles20.51458609200332TOTNL13449293147.299.427.941*78
25Joe Mauer13.50754608200623MINAL14052186181.347.429.936*2D/H
RkPlayerHRSLGSOPAYearAgeTmLgGABRHBAOBPOPSPos

First: ALBERT PUJOLS! With how the last two seasons have gone, it’s easy to forget just how great—and peerless—Pujols was for much of his time in St. Louis. Of the 25 seasons in which hitters have slugged over .500 and struck out less than 10% of the time since 2003, Pujols was responsible for eight of them.

For the most part, the rest of the players all seem like they should belong. Hitters like Barry Bonds, Vladimir Guerrero, and Gary Sheffield always paired big-time power with strong contact skills. It was shocking, though, to see Joe Crede’s name on the list, while guys like Sean Casey and Brian Giles also surprised me a bit. Yadier Molina nearly appeared on this list again following his 2013 campaign, but fell just short in both strikeout percentage (10.2%) and slugging (.477).

And the hitter who finished a season with the lowest strikeout rate on this list? It ended up being a tie between Nomar in 2006 and Sean Casey, who both finished with a Scutaro-esque 5.7% strikeout rate during their respective seasons.

So what does this tell us about Encarnacion? The 31-year-old has been a pretty darn good hitter the past two years, pairing power and contact ability in a way we don’t often see in the majors. He has been able to maintain his plus power, moreover, while greatly improving his plate discipline in recent seasons. Just four years ago, in 2009, Encarnacion posted a 19.8% strikeout percentage, a mark he has methodically cut in half during the time span since:

2151_3b_season_full_4_20130930

Throughout his time in Toronto, Encarnacion’s swing percentage has decreased each year, while his contact rate has increased, culminating in what was a career-low 6.3% swinging-strike rate in 2013. Simply put, Encarnacion was able to fine-tune his pitch recognition skills and patience enough to drastically improve his approach at the plate.

It doesn’t happen for most hitters who arrive in the majors with plus power but little patience (Wily Mo Pena’s now playing in Japan, after all). Nevertheless, through some discernable adjustments and likely great coaching in Toronto, Encarnacion has become one of the better power hitters in the game—hitting home runs and making contact in ways not dissimilar to Albert Pujols in his prime.

. . .

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.

Alex Skillin is a writer and editor at Beyond the Box Score and also works as a Web Editor for SoxProspects.com. He writes, mostly about baseball and basketball, at a few other places across the Internet. You can follow him on Twitter at @AlexSkillin.

Jays Days Beer Club Roy Halladay Appreciation Day

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Jays Days Beer Club and Bluebird Banter will be hosting aRoy Halladay Appreciation Dayevent at Tallboys Craft Beer House (838 Bloor Street West, Toronto) this Saturday, January 11 starting at 1 pm. We will be screening a Roy Halladay game and there'll be good food, good beer, and good company.

Come in from the cold, we hope to see you there! And afterwards you can head down to the Renaissance Hotel and attend the Baseball Canada annual fundraising banquet.

Also: if you happen to have a tape of Roy Halladay's 1998 near-no hitter, let us know in the comments, please.

Happy Birthday Edwin Encarnacion

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Mr. Edwin Encarnacion turned 31 today.

When we traded Scott Rolen to the Reds for Josh Roenicke, Zach Stewart and Edwin, no one would have guess that the only one that would be on the team 4 years later would be Edwin. Course, Edwin did spend 3 weeks as a Oakland A, in the winter of 2010.

Edwin wasn't exactly loved for his first couple of years as a Jay. Fans tend to be impatient. We weren't all fans of Jose Bautista's right away either. You would think we'd learn a little patience by now, especially with players with tons of power. Being fair to those that didn't like him, his defense was pretty awful at third base. And, of course, some folks will tell you we have too many players from the Dominican. Latin players don't tend to get a lot of slack when they don't play great.

He has had his moments, including burning himself with fireworks on New Years. But, lately there have been more fun moments:

Y2spj1i_medium

via cdn.fangraphs.com

Edwin is moving up the franchise leader boards. He's 4th in slugging average, at .506 and number 11 in home runs at 124, his 2nd home run of 2014 will put him in team's top 10 all time. And we know he doesn't strikeout much.o Edwin, Happy Birthday, pour yourself a Mamajuana and have a great day.

It is also Kevin Mench birthday, he turns 36 today. Kevin was half of the two headed Mencherson monster that delighted Jays fans in 2008.

And Frank Menechino turns 43 today. Frank was a utility infielder for the Jays in 2004 and 2005. In 142 games, Frank hit .268/.381/.443. Wouldn't we kill for a second basement that could put up a slash line like that now.

So Happy Birthday Kevin and Frank. Hope it is a good one.

Dick Schofield - Top 100 Angels #32

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...a grand slam of a short stop...

#33 - DICK SCHOFIELD, SS

Richard Craig Schofield was the son of John Richard Schofield. They were both major league shortstops known as Dick Schofield. Dick Sr., known as Ducky, won a World Series with the Pirates over the Yankees in 1960 but was primarily a backup shortstop and occasional utility infielder. His son was something of an iron horse.

Selected in the first round of the 1981 draft with the third pick (Tony Gwynne was taken in the third round, 58th overall), he made his major league debut for a month of September baseball with the Halos two years later at age 20. Perpetually batting eighth or ninth, he delivered 0.8 of defensive WAR in his first full season, 1984. He would play in 715 games for the club from 1984 thru 1988, accruing 6.5 dWAR in that time while picking it up offensively to excellent major league levels for an everyday shortstop with a great glove.

Injuries kept Dick from appearing in over a hundred games for two years in row. he played in 91 games in 1989 and 99 in 1990 but he bounced back for 134 games in 1991, albeit with the weakest offensive numbers of his career. The ANgels traded him after one game of the 1992 season. He revisited the club in 1995 as a backup, following in his dad's footsteps and played in 13 games in 1996 with a Halo before retiring.

In an odd coincidence, Schofield's 1,086 games played as an Angel is tied for seventh all time with Gary DiSarcina. Both players had a reputation for being all glove and no bat and defensively, advanced statistics show that in almost exactly the same amount of playing time DiSarcina was 2 WAR better than Schofield in games as an Angel (Dick played career-average seasons in '92-94 with the Mets and Blue Jays). But Schofield was by far the more well-rounded baseball player. He had a stolen base percentage of 75% (76.7%, fifth best ever by an Angel), and almost double the number of SB as DiSar (99 for Dick, 47 for Gary). While DiSarcina's Offensive Wins Above Replacement is not even in the club's all time top 50, Schofield had 12.8 Offensive WAR, 21st best all time for an Angel. Schofield ends up 5.0 WAR better on the all time Angels list than DiSarcina. Dick is in the Top 20 at #19 with his 16.3 Wins Above Replacement.

And of course, no discussion of Schofield is complete without mentioning his August, 1986 Walk Off Grand Slam in the greatest uphill comeback victory in team history, one which coalesced the fan base into believing that it was indeed the Angels year. Not only was this game the biggest comeback in club history, with eight runs scored in the bottom of the ninth inning to win by one run, but of over 100 walk off home runs in Angels history, this is the only game where the walk off home run - a grand slam - came with the team down by three runs. And if that is not enough - it came with two outs.

This game defined the 1986 Angels at the time, indelibly so, we all thought, until a month and a half later a huge playoff defeat stained what was otherwise one of the greatest seasons in Angels baseball. And yet decades later, for those who were there and for those who saw it on television and for those who listened to it on the radio, this was a stunning, magic moment like no other. Compare it to the Scott Spiezio World Series home run... it was about that awesome for the previous generation.

And the fact that it came off the bat of the workmanlike Schofield, not a star, not a power threat, a good glove with a functional bat, made it a little more awesome ...and it made me rank him #32 All Time among Angels players.

Who would be on your Hall of Fame ballot?

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Everybody is writing about the Hall of Fame, with the announcement coming later today. We had our own votes, the results are here:

I'm guessing that Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas will make the cut. Craig Biggio will be close and Jack Morris will just miss out and have to wait for the veteran's committee to put him in. Maddux and Thomas really should be unanimous selections but won't be, because the BBWAA are strange people.

Thoughts on some of the others:

Jack Morris: I have kind of mellowed on him, I don't think he should be in the Hall, but I don't think it would be terrible if it did. The only reason I'd a little irritated is that his getting in would be a victory for 'old school stats.  I liked him better than I thought I would on the Blue Jays broadcasts. I wouldn't vote for him.

Barry Bonds: The best player in baseball history, he should be in the Hall. Yeah he used, but I think he'd be in the Hall even if he hadn't. He's just an unlikable person, I can't make myself feel bad about him being on the outside looking in, but I'd vote for him.

Roger Clemens: Again, he should be in, but he's such a scum that I wouldn't be able to vote for him. That said, there are a lot of lousy humans in the Hall.

Jeff Bagwell: I don't understand why anyone wouldn't vote for him.

Mike Piazza: Another no doubter.

Tim Raines: Absolutely should be in the Hall. It is a crowded ballot, but if you don't have room for Raines, you are filling it out wrong.

Jeff Kent: To me, he's a near miss, mostly because it is a crowded ballot.

Edgar Martinez: I don't see any reason why a DH should be excluded from the Hall, but I don't think Edgar has the numbers, I wouldn't vote for him.

Mark McGwire: Sorry, I wouldn't vote for him. To me, without the steroids, he isn't close to a candidate. He does have a high OBP, but I think that's a result of all the home runs, pitchers were scared to pitch to him. It is kind of unfair, the writers, who aren't going to elect him to the Hall, are the ones who covered their eyes to his drug use and hailed him as a hero, back in the day.

Larry Walker: It is a crowded ballot, but he gets one of my spots.

Fred McGriff: It is unfair, 7 more home runs and he'd be in. On a less crowded ballot, I'd vote for him. I hope he gets 5% of the vote so he can stay on the ballot.

Mike Mussina: Another one that is close, but I never thought of him as a Hall of Famer when he played, and there are a lot of good choices on the ballot, I hope he gets on 5% of the ballots and we can consider him again next year.

Alan Trammell: A favorite of mine. There were 3 great short stops, in the AL, in his era, Robin Yount, Cal Ripken and Trammell. The other two are in the Hall, he should be too.

Lee Smith: Saves are overrated, but he had a lot of them. No I don't think he should be in the Hall.

Sammy Sosa: See McGwire. McGwire was a much better player.

Rafael Palmeiro: Even before the 'read my lips' I didn't think he belonged in the Hall.

So my ten player ballot would be Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Piazza, Raines, Baggio, Bagwell, Walker, Bonds and Trammell.

Who would be on your ballot?

Hall of Fame Vote: Maddux, Glavine, Thomas In, Biggio Just Misses

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Here are the voting results. Maddux, Glavine and Thomas go in. Biggio misses by 1 vote? What a rip off. Very sorry to see Raines vote went down. stupid voters.

NameVotes (Pct.)Yrs on ballot
Greg Maddux555 (97.2%)1
Tom Glavine525 (91.9)1
Frank Thomas478 (83.7)1
Craig Biggio427 (74.8)2
Mike Piazza355 (62.2)2
Jack Morris351 (61.5)15
Jeff Bagwell310 (54.3)4
Tim Raines263 (46.1)7
Roger Clemens202 (35.4)2
Barry Bonds198 (34.7)2
Lee Smith171 (29.9)12
Curt Schilling167 (29.2)2
Edgar Martinez144 (25.2)5
Alan Trammell119 (20.8)13
Mike Mussina116 (20.3)1
Jeff Kent87 (15.2)1
Fred McGriff67 (11.7)8
Mark McGwire63 (11.0)8
Larry Walker58 (10.2)4
Don Mattingly47 (8.2)14
Sammy Sosa41 (7.2)2
Rafael Palmeiro25 (4.4)4
Moises Alou6 (1.1)1
Hideo Nomo6 (1.1)1
Luis Gonzalez5 (0.9)1
Eric Gagne2 (0.4)1
J.T. Snow2 (0.4)1
Armando Benitez1 (0.2)1
Jacque Jones1 (0.2)1
Kenny Rogers1 (0.2)1
Sean Casey0 (0)1
Ray Durham0 (0)1
Todd Jones0 (0)1
Paul LoDuca0 (0)1
Richie Sexson0 (0)1
Mike Timlin0 (0)1

Why Does Anyone Still Care About The Hall Of Fame?

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We don't care what most writers say about baseball on a daily basis, so why do we care about them deciding who the best players in the sport's history are?

There are some things in life that confuse me more than the average person and it seems the Baseball Hall of Fame is one of these things. The concept makes enough sense: having a place to celebrate the greatest athletes in the sport's history gives every player something to strive for in their playing days. But that's about where the common sense ends and the confusion begins. Every year around this time there are huge controversies over who is being voted into the Hall and who is being snubbed. With writers making their ballots public on social media, there's an added wrinkle of crucifying every "idiot" who didn't vote for the "right" players. This process is obviously extremely subjective, so why do we care when writers with an agenda make silly decisions? It'd be more shocking if they got the voting correct, wouldn't it? By showing any interest in the Hall of Fame balloting, people are essentially saying they care who writers like Richard Griffin think are the best players in baseball history. I don't even care what Richard Griffin thinks is the best sports movie of all time and now I'm supposed to be intrigued by his opinion on Barry Bonds's place among the greats? I don't think so.

In an age where everyone has access to information that allows them to formulate their own opinions, we shouldn't still be relying on a select group of veteran writers to decide who was "Hall of Fame" caliber and who wasn't. People should hop on the internet and come up with their own conclusions about the potential inductees based on their stats and maybe even go back to the archives and watch the players in their prime. All Hall of Fames, but especially the baseball version, are so far from a fair representative of the best players in the sport's history that they have become more obsolete than the Sony Walkman. It shocks me when people get so up-in-arms over these ballots when it has so very little impact on their lives. A small percentage of fans will ever make the trek to Cooperstown (which I was never sure was in Pennsylvania or New York until today...) and if they do make it to the quaint village, will the sight of a bronze plaque of someone like Jack Morris really ruin their experience? In a perfect world, everyone would jump on Morris' Baseball-Reference page and see that he was an alright pitcher for a long period of time. If some writers hop on their high horses and end up electing him into the Hall of Fame then that's fine, because it doesn't matter any more.

Maybe back when nearly all of the best players got voted into the Hall of Fame regardless of the era they played in or the substances they used, it would have been a relevant discussion. But now that people are speculating on the causes of certain players' success and with the personal biases of so few having the ability to cause so much uproar, it's obvious that this process is no longer relevant. Was Barry Bonds one of the greatest players of all time? Yes. From what I can gather, the Hall of Fame is a place for the greatest players of all time to be celebrated so in that definition, Barry Bonds is a shoe-in. But whether he deserves to actually be inducted isn't for anyone other than yourselves to decide. Richard Griffin shouldn't be the one who decides if Barry Bonds is still one of the greatest players of all time, you are.

At the risk of crossing the line into full-on rant mode, I'm glad I was able to get my thoughts onto "paper" and am very interested in hearing what opinions everyone else has about the Hall of Fame. It seems that the people who are more "old school" baseball fans are the people more gripped by these inductions, and younger baseball fans (I definitely fall in this category) would rather hop on FanGraphs and decide for themselves who the best players in baseball history are. I thought that my opinions on this topic might change as players that I actually got to see play when I was alive became eligible for the ballot, but that time has passed and I still don't seem to give a damn. So with the inductees being announced today, I hope people don't tweet at the "idiot" writers about their selections and are just content with the fact that, sadly, the Hall of Fame doesn't matter any more.


Solving the Blue Jays' black hole at second base

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With Alex Anthopolous as GM, the Toronto Blue Jays have always had little production at second base. Given the team's position on the cusp of playoff contention, upgrading the team's options at second base should be one of Anthopolous' top priorities.

This offseason has been considerably quieter for the Toronto Blue Jays than last year. Around this time last January the Jays had already been heralded as the winners of the offseason. The additions of R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera and Emilio Bonifacio seemed to have the team poised for their first playoff birth in 20 years.

Unfortunately the hype did not translate into wins, and the Jays finished last in the AL East with a record of 74-88. While 2013 was certainly a disappointment, the Jays have committed all their resources to winning now. The majority of last season's roster remains under contract. This team should still be considered a contender for the coming season.

For that reason, GM Alex Anthopolous and the Jays' front office should be concentrating their efforts around improving the club in a few critical areas: catcher, starting pitching, and second base. The catching situation has been addressed. The release of the on-base-allergic J.P. Arencibia, and the addition of Dioner Navarro should provide an upgrade.

Conversely, the starting pitching market has yet to entirely unfold. Recently, the Jays have been rumored as the frontrunners to sign Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez. Adding either should upgrade the team's rotation, although Santana's elevated HR/FB rate in recent seasons could be a concern in the home run-friendly confines of Rogers Centre.

This leaves second base, from which the Jays received a combined .216/.258/.297 line in 2013, a ghastly bit of production by any measure. Unfortunately, this type of fuitility from second base is not really aberrant for the Jays during Anthopolous' tenure. Here are the numbers for Toronto second baseman since Anthopolous took over in 2010:

YearPAAVGOBPSLGOPSOPS+DRSUZR
20106740.2110.2710.3830.65481310.8
20116720.2350.2900.3440.634792-0.8
20126770.2250.3030.3510.653875-8.6
20136260.2160.2580.2970.5565710-2.9

Note: OPS+ is relative to other second basemen.

Toronto's offensive production at the keystone has been below league average for second baseman each season. One might suggest that this is because the Jays have elected for a defense-first strategy at the position.

Not so.

While there are discrepancies between the DRS and UZR metrics, neither suggests the Jays have been playing a top-level defender at second in recent years. Their DRS values have ranked between 4th and 8th in the American League over these seasons—not bad, but nowhere near enough to make up for the offensive deficiencies of Toronto's second baseman. Taken together the Jays have had replacement-level production from second base over the last four seasons.

Given the Jays' current roster, that trend seems likely to continue. The plan appears to be to use Ryan Goins and Maicer Izturis (and maybe Munenori Kawasaki) in 2014. FanGraphs depth chart projections have Goins getting the majority of the plate appearances (and do not include Kawasaki), with production not expected to be much above replacement level.

The table for Blue Jays' second basemen is partially re-produced below:

PlayerPAAVGOBPSLGwOBAWAR
Ryan Goins4200.2410.2840.3350.2740.1
Maicer Izturis2800.2570.3160.3560.2990.2
Total7000.2470.2970.3430.2840.3

It's surprising that a team possibly on the edge of playoff contention would stick with such mediocre production at second base. The Jays are projected as an 83-win team for 2014 by FanGraphs. At this position on the win curve, a few additional wins could significantly improve the team's odds of making the playoffs. Investing in a 2- or 3-win player, then, would be well worth the cost. At the very least, the Jays need to break their recent trend of employing replacement-level performers at second base.

With most of the top free agents already signed with other teams, the Jays are likely best suited to attempt a trade. In fact, the top free agents at the position signing elsewhere may help facilitate a trade. With Robinson Cano set in Seattle and Omar Infante set in Kansas City as the primary second basemen for the foreseeable future, trades for players like Dustin Ackley and Nick Franklin of the Mariners and the Royals' Johnny Giavotella should be explored.

In 694 PAs at Triple-A, Ackley hit .303/.401/.472, but has struggled with plate discipline in the majors and has only contributed a .245/.315/.354 line in 1471 careers PAs. There has been much speculation about the way the Mariner's have handled Ackley's development and how that may have contributed to his struggles in the majors. Regardless, he is still just 25 years old, had a solid track record in the upper minors and is a reasonable defender (24 DRS in 2441 innings at 2B). More importantly, his projected offensive line would be an upgrade over Toronto's current plan at the keystone:

PAAVGOBPSLGwOBAWAR
Dustin Ackley4550.2500.3280.3680.3091.1

Ackley's younger teammate, Nick Franklin (23 years old) has followed a similar path. In 473 PAs at Triple-A, Franklin hit .271/.358/.435 but experienced a decline in performance upon arrival in the majors (.225/.303/.382 in 412 PAs). Yet he is projected to provide similar production to Ryan Goins in 378 fewer PAs:

PAAVGOBPSLGwOBAWAR
Nick Franklin420.2400.3130.3800.3070.1

Scouting reports on the Royals' Johnny Giavotella (26 years old) suggest that he does not have the defensive abilities of Ackley or Franklin, but his offensive production at Triple-A (.317/.388/.456 in 1347 PA) makes him a valuable trade target. He too struggled with plate discipline in the major leagues (4.5 BB%, 16.7 K% in 424 PAs) and saw his numbers decline (.240/.278/.335) to the point where it seems as though the Royals have given up on him.

Nevertheless, the recent decline in performance these players have shown during their opportunities in the majors should present an opportunity for the Jays to buy low on one of them. They have stronger records of performance than a player like Ryan Goins, whose Triple-A track record (.257/.311/.369 in 418 PAs) leaves much to be desired.

As with any trade, the merit depends on what the Jays would have to give up. But if the price is right (e.g., bullpen arm, Ricky Romero) taking the (reasonable) risk that these guys can re-establish their Triple-A production at the major league level should be considered.

Regardless of who it is, acquiring a higher level of production from second base should be a focus for the Blue Jays front office over the next few months. It has been a problem for a few years now, and with the team in win-now mode, such a black hole of production on Toronto's roster needs to be addressed. Doing so, perhaps in conjunction with signing a new starting pitcher, may provide the all-important boost the Jays need to break into October baseball.

. . .

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.

Chris Teeter is a contributor to Beyond the Box Score. You can follow him on Twitter at @c_mcgeets.

Jays have 'multiple discussions' with Tanaka

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In Jon Heyman's post about Masahiro Tanaka meeting with several MLB teams, he had this:

The Jays are among several others teams to have had multiple discussions with team Tanaka, but there was no word they had a meeting planned as of yet.

That's a pretty clunky sentence. "To have had". Does that mean they have had multiple discussions or are planning to have them. I don't know what if 'multiple discussions' show a greater interest in him than have a 'meeting'. I don't know if the Jays need to have a meeting in the next couple days to offer a contract or if one could have been offered in the discussions they had.

After the Darvish mess, I'm expecting someone to tell us that the Jays have a press conference planned for this afternoon. I didn't believe it last time and I won't believe it this time until I have a press release from the Jays saying 'we signed him, you said we wouldn't but we did'.

I'm sure they Jays will talk to him, they talk to everyone, and I'm sure they have a dollar amount in mind for a 'this is as high as we are willing to go', if there is any mutual interest.

I'm thinking Tanaka will be getting something like $20 million a year for, at least, 5 years, but maybe 6 or 7, considering the number of teams involved in the bidding.  That's a lot of money for someone that has been pitching in a league that is tough to figure how to compare to the MLB.

He's thrown a lot of innings, at a young age, I'm sure the team that signs him will put him through the physical to end all physicals. The trouble is that, to my understanding, all pitchers shoulders are damaged. Our bodies weren't designed to do what pitchers do. How much damage is too much will be the question.

Friday Bluebird Links: Bob Stanley, John Gibbons, and Blue Jays prospects give interviews

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Top Blue Jays prospects came and went this week, and now the annual Winter Tour has begun (they will be in Kingston today), there should be a bunch of interview-type articles that will pop up in the next week or so. Some already have so take a read through these links!

Stanley: Thrilled to join the Jays - Sportsnet.ca (Video)
New bullpen coach Bob Stanley joined Prime Time Sports after some phone troubles. In the shortened segment, Stanley said that he had always looked forward to be a bullpen coach after all his years in the Red Sox 'pen. Stanley talked about working with Pete Walker to work pitchers a little harder this spring training to get their pitch counts up before April. He views his role on the team as someone who works with the pitching coach to give advice, but possibly explain it in different ways to make sure a pitcher understands.

Gibbons: Stroman could make 2014 Jays team - Sportsnet.ca (Video)
John Gibbons is in Toronto and he talks about his team. One thing he said that sort of confirms what many of us think, is that Marcus Stroman is quite close to the big leagues and if the Blue Jays don't add any arms (50/50 chance, Gibby thinks), there is a chance the 22-year-old could make it into the pitching staff out of spring training. Gibbons also kept tabs on Aaron Sanchez, who he considers the franchise's top prospect, in the Arizona Fall League. Gibby was asked about this year's spring training routine, and he acknowledged that he has addressed pitcher workouts with Pete Walker. Gibbons isn't sure that the lack of preparation was the reason of the struggles, but as Stanley said, the Jays would like to push their pitchers a little bit more in the spring to get them stronger when the regular season begins. When asked about Dustin McGowan, Gibbons's plan is to "stretch him out a little bit and see how that goes," although he didn't sound too enthused about McGowan's prospects in the rotation, thinking that increased innings would increase McGowan's injury risks.

Fun fact: Gibbons mentions "dead hookers" in this segment.

Marcus Stroman with Mike Wilner (Audio)
Like everybody in Toronto in the past week, they started their conversation talking about the cold weather. Once they got through that, Stroman reminds us that he is still a kid, marvelling at the hugeness of the Rogers Centre.

Sean Nolin with Mike Wilner (audio)
Sean Nolin talked about struggling in his first (and only) start in the major leagues, saying that he might have been "overanxious."

Aaron Sanchez with Mike Wilner (Audio)
OK this is the third interview with prospects and it's obvious that one of the thing they were taught on this trip to Toronto was how to use cliches in interviews. Although, Aaron Sanchez did hint that he might be headed for double-A New Hampshire to start 2014 (like we thought).

Blue Jays prospect Jimenez resumes throwing - Sportsnet.ca
Ben Nicholson-Smith tells us that catcher A.J. Jimenez, who earned a spot in the Arizona Fall League before re-injuring his elbow, now feels good enough to throw again. Jimenez will most likely be the Buffalo Bisons' starting catcher in 2014.

Palm Beach County Administrator Talks Spring Training Plans - Blue Jays Plus
Gideon Turk updates us on the goings-on with the Blue Jays' potential move away from Dunedin. The original plans that were discussed throughout 2013 was to move into the facilities the Astros were building in Palm Beach Gardens. State and municipal money was secured, but apparently there were enough protests from the locals to halt the project. Turk suggests that Boca Raton may be the "most desirable landing spot" as it is still within Palm Beach County (probably meaning they won't need to go back to the state to get money). Although I loved my time in Dunedin the one year I went down, the stadium is really outdated and having their minor league complex so far away is really a hindrance to the camp. I don't give a rat's mouth where they move but let's get the Blue Jays some better facilities to work out in the spring.

Why Rogers and the Blue Jays Need Each Other - Blue Jays Plus
"Cheap Rogers" aren't going to short change the Blue Jays because the better the team does, the more people will tune into Sportsnet, Joshua of Blue Jays Plus argues.

Blue Jays in the Wild: Adam Lind at the Raptors Game (with Jesse Carlson and Steve Paikin!) - The Blue Jay Hunter
I'm a huge Steve Paikin fan--he has a great show on TVO and is one of the best debate moderators out there--but he has one, huge, flaw: he is a Boston Red Sox fan. So what was he doing with current Blue Jay Adam Lind (with a nice winter beard and a Megatron toque) and former Blue Jay Jesse Carlson? An equally valid question would be: what the heck is Jesse Carlson doing in Toronto?

MLB Network now available in Canada - BlueJays.com
Finally, finally, finally, MLB Network is now available in Canada. I only caught a few minutes here and there but they are really promoting the fact that they've arrived here. On Intentional Talk they showed a few Blue Jays clips, including Kevin Millar striking out with a pathetic swing, Munenori Kawasaki (of course), and that stunt Dan Plesac once pulled when he posed as one of the SkyDome grounds crew. Plesac, who was hosting the segment, gave a pitch about Toronto that the tourism board should be proud of.

One thing to look forward to is a Maury Brown article in Forbes on the deal between Rogers and MLB Network to bring the channel to Canada. Brown, if you were unaware, operates the Biz of Baseball website.

Events

Roy Halladay Appreciation Day

Just a reminder that Bluebird Banter and Jays Days Beer Club are organizing a fun Roy Halladay Appreciation event this Saturday, starting at 1 pm. It will be held at Tallboys Craft Beer House on Bloor between Ossington and Christie. We will have a screening of a Halladay-Matt Garza duel from 2009, Halladay trivia, and Tallboys will be serving up some specials: $5 pints of Steamwhistle, and an 8 2/3 (damn you Bobby Higginson!) ounce "curveburger," which is a "smashed beef patty topped with crisp pork belly au jus."

There'll be good baseball, good food, good beer, good company. Hope to see you there.

Bisons Hot Stove Luncheon
This coming Monday, January 13 is the last day for you to register for the Buffalo Bisons' annual "Hot Stove Luncheon" featuring Blue Jays executives (Alex Anthopoulos and Paul Beeston, and Charlie Wilson were there last year), Bisons GM Mike Buczkowski, and pitchers Brandon Morrow, Dustin McGowan, Esmil Rogers, and Todd Redmond. Tickets are just $25 and doors open at 11:30.

"Shift Disturbers" Speakers Series @ Rotman: Nate Silver
Nate Silver will be giving a talk on his new book "The Signal and the Noise" at the Martin Prosperity Institute on the University of Toronto campus on April 17. Tickets are just $40 ($20 for U of T alum) and include a copy of the book. Get your tickets now!

Podcast episode 14 with Drew Fairservice

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The podcast returns with The Score's Drew Fairservice.

The podcast has returned after a hiatus, and I'm joined by Drew Fairservice. You may know Drew from Twitter at @DrewGROF, where he writes for The Score, and he's previously from the excellent Blue Jays blog Ghost Runner on First.

Today's topics include what's wrong with the Hall of Fame, how Robinson Cano will age, and whether or not the Mariners and Blue Jays match up in a possible trade. We also talk about the year in music and how our tastes formed, and if you get to that part and want to skip back to baseball, we pick it back up around the 31 minute mark.

We've got some cool guests planned for the podcast this year. Thanks for your patience and thanks for listening!

The Lookout Landing podcast is available on iTunes or you can stream it here or download the file directly.

Lookout Landing 2.0 Podcast Episode 6">

Lookout Landing Podcast Episode 14

On Kevin Seitzer: do 'one size fits all' philosophies work?

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John Lott, in the National Post, wrote about our new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer and Ryan Goins.

Seitzer seems to think Goins will be a productive hitter, with a few little changes to his swing that they worked on during a weekend together this winter:

I felt like he needed to simplify some things with his stance and his setup, keeping his lefts underneath him a little bit more and letting his hands work in a little better position, staying inside the ball.

Seitzer has a totally different philosophy on hitting than Dwight Murphy or Cito Gaston. Murphy and Gaston wanted batters to be looking to pull the ball, figuring that's how you can get the most power. Seitzer wants the batters thinking hit the ball up the middle, thinking it gives the hitters an extra moment to see the pitch coming in, the bat doesn't have to start as soon.

Gibbons often complained last season that his hitters were too "pull happy." Seitzer says he doesn't care where the hits go, so long as his hitters reach base, but he insists that a middle-first approach will generate better production.

I really hate 'one size fits all' methods. Yes, thinking 'up the middle' is a good idea for many players, Goins is likely one of those, not that I think any change is going to suddenly turn him into great hitter. I'd be kind of interested to see what would have happened if Seitzer could have had the chance to work with Arencibia. Thinking up the middle may have given him that extra moment to think 'hey that ball is off the plate, maybe I shouldn't swing'. Though likely not.

On the opposite end, man I hope Seitzer is smart enough to leave Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Colby Rasmus alone. For them, the pull everything approach has worked great , and I wouldn't want them thinking anything else.

I don't think anything in baseball should be 'one size fits all'. Cito had John McDonald on the pull everything band wagon one year, and it worked..... for a few games, then opposing pitchers figure it out (maybe because Cito and Mac wouldn't stop talking to the press about it) and pitchers stopped throwing him things he could easily pull. Since he didn't have the power that Bautista and company have, Mac wasn't going to have success trying to pull every pitch.

I did think that Chad Mottola seemed to have a more balanced approach, he didn't seem to be forcing a style on any of the batters. but tried to help each with the approach they used. But then, we didn't win and he's on to Tampa Bay.

It is going to be an interesting year, I'm curious to see how bullheaded Seitzer will be with the Jays hitters. I'd like to think he is smart enough not to mess with the guys that are doing well, using the 'grip and rip' method. I can't imagine he'd want to screw that up.

John Gibbons: Jays have interest in Tanaka

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Shi Davidi reports:

The Toronto Blue Jays have engaged the representatives of Masahiro Tanaka, according to manager John Gibbons, but how aggressively the club intends to pursue the Japanese pitching sensation remains unclear.

This is confirming what we already knew, but hearing it from a team official confirms what Jon Heyman told us.

Course, I'll state the usual, the Jays talk to everyone, talk about everyone. Does that mean they will make an offer to Tanaka? No. I would imagine that they will see if the price will be somewhere close to what they can live with.

Shi also mentions:

  • Steve Delabar is pain free.
  • Anthony Gose hit .167 with 4 walks, in 7 winter ball games for Tiburones de La Guaira in Venezuela.
  • Moises Sierra played some first in the Dominican Republic. He could platoon with Lind, or maybe not.
  • Brandon Morrow is also pain free. We are going to need him.

And:

Melky Cabrera, who had a tumour removed from his back late in the season, is "doing great," according to Gibbons. "He looks like the old guy, but only time will tell on that."


To which Minor Leaguer responds:

He better not look like the old man that we saw last year. I could cover as much ground in the outfield. We need him almost as much as Morrow.

And there is also this news from Buster Olney:

Vernon will make $21 million for not playing baseball, $18.6 million of it will come from the Angels. Some team might pick him up, since, after he clears waivers, they would only have to pay him the league minimum.

Flashing pull power

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Tremendous pull power is something we all marvel at, but who's been the best at pulling tough pitches out of the yard since 2008?

Pull power is one of the most awe inspiring things to watch in our game. Homers, for the longest time, have been considered the main act that brings people to the park. Everyone wants to see how far a human can hit something. It's the same in golf and tennis. Our penchant for the long ball is the reason the home run race of '98 captivated a nation. It's the reason - among many others - that we remain in awe of players like Ruth, Aaron, and Bonds. We're still obsessed with the long ball; and rightfully so.

After watching a Jose Bautista home run earlier this year where he pulled a pitch that was nearly out of the zone - nearly missing low and away - I began to wonder how it was even possible to pull a ball to the complete opposite side of the of field to which the ball was pitched with that much authority. I continued marinating on it and eventually began to ask myself, who in the majors has the most pull power; at least in the sense of the guidelines laid out below.

The research, made possible by the wonderful site Baseball Savant, is simple. How many home runs did a player pull on pitches that are classified as "low and away." In order to classify which pitches are "low and away" I used the chart below, also provided by Baseball Savant. For right handed batters, the pitch had to be located in either the 9 or 14 quandrant and clear the fence in left or left-center. The opposite is true for left handed batters.

Baseball_savant_plot_medium

The results - at least somewhat - were as expected. Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista were among the top 2 in homers for right handed batters. The other name, right at the top with 9 home runs, was Ryan Ludwick. Kind of shocking, but not extremely surprising.

Player# of HR% of Pitches in Zone(s)
Edwin Encarnacion108.2%
Jose Bautista107.7%
Ryan Ludwick98.1%
Alfonso Soriano86.4%
Adam Jones75.2%

I wasn't fully aware of just how rare it is for someone to pull a low and away pitch for a home run. Since 2008, the major league lead - at least for RHB - is ten. That's means the best right handed hitter at hits just a little over 1.5 per year.

In order to get a better idea of just how impressive these feats are, I want to focus on right handed slugger Jose Bautista and where exactly the pitches were that he hit out of the yard.

Chart_medium

Aside from the dot that is exactly in the corner - the pitch that caused this piece - check out just how far off of the plate those 3 homers are. They're a whole foot off of the plate. If you want to see what I mean in gif form, you're in luck.

That little homer, courtesy of Joey Bats, is that tiny dot in corner of the box. The pitch was a change-up, which Bautista was a little out in front of, but the power is still massive.

If we switch to the other side of the plate, Brian McCann is king. I'll admit that despite being a Braves' fan and a resident of the metro Atlanta area, it shocked me.

Player# of HR% of Pitches in Zone(s)
Brian McCann2117.0%
Curtis Granderson1610.6%
Chase Utley1410.3%
Jay Bruce1410.5%
Colby Rasmus1211.6%

I knew that McCann had plenty of pull power, but I never really considered him to have more pull power than say, Curtis Granderson or Jay Bruce. McCann's total can be somewhat explained by the fact that he saw more pitches in the two zones that we outlined. While he had more chances than the other players in the top 5 - based on qualified pitches - don't let that take away from the power he's shown.

Chart__1__medium

McCann's ability to homer off pitches in the stated quadrants is as impressive, if not a little more so, than noted masher Jose Bautista.


Obviously, McCann's power is no joke either. His ability to pull the pitch above - which was low and away - over the wall to right-center is extremely impressive and a thing of beauty. It's my belief that people overstate how much a new park will help a player's stat line, but there's no doubt McCann's pull power should play very well in his new New York home.

When I began looking into the data for this piece I wasn't sure what to expect. The main takeaway I received from the research - aside from being in awe of the power major leaguers possess - is how many more pitches down and away left handed batters see than right handed batters. Granted, it's a small sample size, but no batter on the right handed chart saw more than ~8% of pitches in the "low and away" quadrants. Compare that with that the fact that no one on the left handed list saw less than ~10% of pitches in the stated zones. Most power hitting lefties are known to be "dead pull hitters," so maybe I shouldn't have been that shocked that pitchers wanted to pitch away from them. On the other side, I was also unaware how few low and outside pitches are actually pulled for home runs. Ten pulled homers from one of the games best right handed power bats, seems like a small number, but it lends credence to how hard it actually is to pull outside pitches at times.

The next time you see someone pull a pitch that is extremely low and away and an announcer chalks it up to "getting the barrel out there," don't forget just how impressive it is.

*h/t to Jen Mac Ramos for the gifs

. . .

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

Landon Jones is a contributor to Beyond The Box Score. He also writes for The Fantasy Fix. You can follow and interact with him on Twitter @JonesLandon.


Yankees sign reliever Robert Coello to minor league deal

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Amidst the Alex Rodrigueznews, the Yankeeshave signed right-handed reliever Robert Coello to a minor league deal. I'm assuming there's also an invite to Spring Training for Coello in the deal as well.

Coello, 29, pitched last season for the Los Angeles Angels and put up a 3.71 ERA and a 2.52 FIP in 16 relief outings and 17 innings pitched. What makes Coello interesting is his strikeout numbers. He posted a 12.2 K/9 and 31.5% K-rate in his limited time last season. In his career in the majors, which also includes stints with the Red Sox in 2010 and the Blue Jays in 2012, Coello has a 5.90 ERA and 3.58 FIP (12.1 K/9, 30% K-rate) in 28 appearances. He issues plenty of walks, too (career 5.3 BB/9, 13% BB-rate), but the strikeouts are interesting nonetheless.

Coello has also seen plenty of action in the minors. In 187 career appearances (156 in relief), he has a 3.39 ERA. Like he has shown at the Major League level, Coello has done a good job of racking up the strikeouts (10.1 K/9), while allowing plenty of walks as well (4.0 BB/9). While pitching for the Angels' Triple-A team last season, Coello pitched to a 4.58 ERA, 14.2 K/9, and 5 BB/9 in 16 appearances and 19.2 innings.

Unlike most minor league signings, Coello may have a fair shot to crack this year's bullpen. It's painfully obvious the team is thin in the bullpen, and he has experience at the Major League level, which is something the Yankees like. New York has had some success with under-the-radar reliever pickups in the past (Luis Ayala and Cory Wade come to mind) and Coello could be the next on that list.

Sunday Open Thread: Random Thoughts on a Boring January

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I wish the Jays would help us out, make some news, give us a halfway interesting rumor. Something. But no, they are continuing the most boring off-season ever. It is getting so bad that I'm looking forward to the start of spring training so I can read all the stories about players reporting in the best shape ever.

  • The closest thing to news we have is Jeff Passan telling us that the Jays have given up on the idea of making Jeremy Jeffress a starter. I'm not really sure if they actually were seriously considering it. We have a dozen guys that could fill the 4-5 spots of the rotation, without messing with Jeffress.
  • I wonder if they will try Dustin McGowan as a starter. The trouble is that, since Dustin is out of options, they can't send him to Buffalo to get a few starts. We have so many right-handed relievers that could fit into that setup role that having McGowan start might be a good use for him. If we aren't signing a free agent.
  • I figured one or two of the relievers would have been traded by now. I don't know how they are going to find innings for all of Janssen, Santos, Delabar, Jeffress, McGowan, Wagner and Rogers (unless he starts). Cecil, Loup, J.A. Happ (if he doesn't start) and Luis Perez are all around from the left side.
  • The Jays' Winter Tour rolls into Peterborough today. Looking at pictures of Anthony Gose, at their Kingston stop, does anyone else think Colby Rasmus pulled out of the tour because he is afraid of Gose? Gose did get him in the head with a throw, maybe Colby thinks Anthony would come up with another 'accident' to make a opening on the team?
  • ARod gets suspended for the season. I don't exactly feel sorry for the guy, he's such a jackass, but it does seem that MLB has it out for him. And the union doesn't really have his back.

Anyway, use the thread as an open thread to discuss anything you'd like, Jays related, or whatever else you might want to talk about. I'm off to see Inside Llewyn Davis this afternoon. Saw American Hustle last week and really enjoyed it.

Colby Rasmus, Brett Cecil, Esmil Rogers could be heading towards salary arbitration with Blue Jays

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January 14 and January 17 are dates Blue Jays fans should circle in their calendar, so print your Google Calendar and circle them now.

It has been 17 years since the Blue Jays last went into an arbitration hearing with one of their players, but they could be looking at three hearings to start 2014 unless they work out salary figures with Colby Rasmus, Brett Cecil, and Esmil Rogers. In general, all players on the major league roster with between three to six years of service are considered to be "arbitration eligible"--there is a special "Super Two" exception that allows some players with only two service years to ask for arbitration but it does not apply to any current Blue Jay. Back in December, the Blue Jays chose to tender their contracts (while letting J.P. Arencibia leave as a free agent), meaning that the three will be under contract for 2014, but they haven't figured out compensation just yet.

Matt Swartz, who developed a salary arbitration projection system for MLB Trade Rumors, presented the following salary estimations for the Blue Jays:

  • Colby Rasmus: $6.5 million
  • Brett Cecil: $0.9 million
  • Esmil Rogers: $1.0 million

Rasmus, who had a solid (albeit injury-shortened) year at the plate and in centre field, is one of the best centre fielders in the American League and will likely get a large raise from the $4.675 million he made in 2013 as he is in his last arbitration year before he can declare free agency. Rogers made $1000 less than Cecil in 2013 but both of them look to almost double their salaries heading into next year, with Rogers getting a slight boost over the All-Star Cecil because of the 20 starts he made in 2013.

The actual hearings will not occur until February, but January 14 is the deadline for Rasmus, Cecil, and Rogers to declare their desire to head into salary arbitration. Between then and January 17, Major League Baseball's Labor Relations Department collects salary figures from both players and clubs and then exchanges the numbers on January 17 at 1 pm Eastern. There is no rule stopping a team and a player to agree to a contract between January 17 and their scheduled hearing, but Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos has a personal rule where he would not negotiate on one-year contracts after the exchange of salary figures. That leaves the player with two options: agree to a multi-year deal or let the arbitration panel decide his salary.

During the arbitration hearing, representatives of both the player and the club will appear in front of a three-member arbitration panel, generally composed of non-baseball experts selected by both Major League Baseball and the Players' Association. The format of the hearing is quite rigid:

  1. Player's presentation (1 hr.)
  2. Club's presentation (1 hr.)
  3. Player's rebuttal and summation (30 min.)
  4. Club's rebuttal and summation (30 min.)
  5. Player's surrebuttal ("very brief")
  6. Club's surrebuttal ("very brief" only upon request by club)

The three arbitrators have little flexibility in terms of choosing the player's salary: they must pick either the figure the team submitted, or the one the player submitted, whichever is closest to what the panel thinks the player should get. The arbitrators only selects one of the two salaries--they are not permitted to give either parties reasons behind their decision. The binary choice is designed to lead both parties to submit reasonable figures and to not outrageously lowball offers or highball demands. In addition, all arbitrated contracts are one year in length, non-guaranteed (meaning a player could get as little as 30 days of termination pay if he gets released during spring training), and cannot contain frills like no-trade clauses, player or club options, or performance bonuses. Knowing this, Anthopoulos's strategy is clear--he wants to prevent players from dragging contract talks until they see what the club is willing to offer for a one-year deal.

In 2013, Anthopoulos avoided arbitration by signing Colby Rasmus on the day of arbitration filing before signing J.A. HappEmilio Bonifacio, and Josh Thole hours prior to the salary exchange.

I can see a one-year deal with a club option for Esmil Rogers and Brett Cecil, both of whom are entering into arbitration for the first time. Colby Rasmus will be a free agent after the 2014 season, so depending on how contract extension talks are going, Rasmus may elect to take a one-year contract without options for the time being and continue talking. In 2011, Jose Bautista did not settle his salary with the Blue Jays by the salary exchange date and two sides agreed to his contract extension just hours before his arbitration hearing.

Community Projections: Edwin Encarnacion

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Give us your best guess on Edwin Encarnacion's 2014 season.

Each winter we predict how our players do in the coming season. I'm hoping, before we are finished this, that we'll have a couple of new players to consider.

Let's start with Edwin Encarnacion.

For the second year in a row, Edwin was one of the few bright spots for the Blue Jays. He finished 5th in the AL in Slugging and also 5th in OPS. He was also 3rd in home runs, 6th in RBI and 4th in walks.


YearAgeTmGABRH2B3BHRRBISBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSOPS+
201027TOR9633247811602151102960.244.305.482.787109
201128TOR134481701313601755824377.272.334.453.787111
201229TOR15154293152240421101338494.280.384.557.941153
201330TOR1425309014429136104718262.272.370.534.904145
9 Yrs10793803561100721961956064911436686.265.348.479.827117
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/13/2014.

You do have to like the strikeout rate dropping.

On the glove side, he played 79 games at first base, 55 at DH and surprisingly 10 at third base. Playing 142 games makes him an iron man in Blue Jay terms. He did end the season with a sore wrist, which isn't the best marker for next season, but I'd imagine he'll be healthy and 'in the best shape ever' by spring training.

He had a pretty low BABIP, at ,247, his career number is .275.  The second half of his 2013 season (.286/.401/.538) was a little better than his first half (.264/.353/.532). We took a closer look at Edwin's 2013 numbers back here.

Edwin just turned 31 last week and we have him signed through 2015, with a team option for 2016.

Bill James figures Edwin to play 150 games, hit 34 homers, 98 RBI with a .274/.366/.520. That looks pretty good, but I'm going to be a little more optimistic, hoping the BABIP comes up some. .290/.380/.540 in 150 games, 35 home runs, 105 RBI (hoping that we have a few more guys on base for Edwin). I'm also hoping we don't feel any need to play him at third base this year.

So give us your guess. Give us games played, homers, RBI and slash line and I'll put it into a spread sheet and come out with a community average.

Blue Jays announce 2014 minor league coaching staff

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The Blue Jays announced that the Buffalo Bisons will be getting a completely new coaching staff in 2014, led by manager Gary Allenson. Allenson will be joined in Buffalo by hitting coach Richie Hebner and pitching coach Randy St. Claire.

Gary Allenson joined the Blue Jays organization last season, hired on to manage double-A New Hampshire after Sal Fasano was re-assigned to the roving catching instructor role. Allenson has had experience managing in at the triple-A level, having managed Louisville, Ottawa, and Norfolk over eight seasons. Allenson, who will be turning 59 in February, played 14 games with the Blue Jays to end his career after becoming the Blue Jays' third-ever free agent acquisition in 1985 (following Luis Gomez in 1978 and Dennis Lamp in 1984).

Richie Hebner may be a familiar name to some Blue Jays fans, having previously managed the Syracuse Chiefs in 1995 and 1996. If you recall, he was one of a handful of coaches the Blue Jays picked to work with replacement players in 1995 during the players' strike. Hebner returned to the Blue Jays organization last season to serve as Allenson's hitting coach with the Fisher Cats.

Randy St. Claire only played two games with the Blue Jays in 1994 to end his career, but he is notable as one of the few players who have played for both the Jays and the Expos. St. Claire was the Expos' last pitching coach, and continued in that role with the Nationals until 2009. Last year, he was the pitching coach for the Mets' triple-A affiliate Las Vegas 51s.

In addition to the Bisons' announcements, the Blue Jays also announced that their roving instructors (Dane Johnson - pitching, Mike Barnett - hitting, Mike Mordecai - fielding, Tim Raines - outfield and baserunning, Sal Fasano - catching) will be remaining with the organization. This ends the speculation that Tim Raines could be in line for a major league job as the Blue Jays' extra coach.

Other notable moves:

  • Rich Miller, who was the Senior Roving Instructor in 2013, now becomes a Senior Advisor
  • 2013 Vancouver Canadians manager Clayton McCullough is now the Coordinator of Instruction
  • Bobby Meacham moves up from Dunedin to manage New Hampshire
  • Omar Malave, who took a season off from coaching as the Blue Jays' Latin Affairs Coordinator in 2013, will wear an uniform again in 2014 as the manager in Dunedin
  • Windsorite Stubby Clapp stays as the Dunedin Blue Jays' hitting coach
  • Haligonian Vince Horsman as the pitching coach remains in Lansing
  • Jon Nunnally changes jobs with Richie Hebner, returning to New Hampshire after one season in Buffalo
  • John Schneider, who managed the Canadians in 2011 until he had to take a leave of absence, will return to manage in Vancouver after one season with the Gulf Coast Blue Jays
  • Joining Schneider as the pitching coach in Vancouver will be former Blue Jays pitcher Jeff Ware
  • John Tamargo Jr. stays in Lansing, and long-time minor league manager Dennis Holmberg stays in Bluefield
  • Former Blue Jays catcher Ken Huckaby moves from Bluefield to Lansing
  • Pitching coach Jim Czajkowski moves from Vancouver to New Hampshire
  • Not seeing former Fisher Cats pitching coach Tom Signore's name on the list, I assume he has left the organization
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