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Avoiding arbitration, a Blue Jays winter tradition since 1998

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Will the Blue Jays hold the longest streak by March?

Once again, the Toronto Blue Jays managed to avoid going to arbitration hearings with any of their eligible players by agreeing to terms with Brett Cecil, Colby Rasmus, and Esmil Rogers on Friday before salary figures were exchanged. It pushes the Blue Jays' streak to 16 years without going through the awkward process where the club has to basically trash-talk their players in front of three lawyers in order to justify their salary offer.

The Blue Jays have only gone to eight arbitration hearings, the last being with Bill Risley in 1997, who asked for $550,000 while the club offered $380,000. The arbitrators ruled in favour of the Blue Jays in that case, pushing the franchise's all-time arbitration record to five wins and three losses:

  1. 1980: Dave Lemanczyk (RHP) LOST in arbitration. Club offered $130k, he asked for $165k.
  2. 1980: Roy Howell (3B) WON in arbitration. Club offered $110k, he asked for $133k.
  3. 1982: Dave Stieb (RHP) LOST in arbitration. Club offered $250k, he asked for $325k.
  4. 1983: Damaso Garcia (2B) WON in arbitration. Club offered $300k, he asked for $400k.
  5. 1983: Roy Lee Jackson (RHP) LOST in arbitration. Club offered $155k, he asked for $225k.
  6. 1988: Tom Henke (RHP) LOST in arbitration. Club offered $725k, he asked for $1.025MM.
  7. 1991: Roberto Alomar (2B) WON in arbitration. Club offered $825k, he asked for $1.25MM.
  8. 1997: Bill Risley (RHP) LOST in arbitration. Club offered $380k, he asked for $550k.

However, the Blue Jays are not the holders of the longest active streak: the Cleveland Indians headed into arbitration with Jerry Browne and Greg Swindell in 1991 and haven't been back since. Currently, six teams have yet to go through arbitration in the 21st century: the Indians, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Tigers, Mariners, and Rangers.

There are still several weeks until the hearings begin, but the Indians are in danger of breaking their streak: they have exchanged figures with Josh Tomlin, Justin Masterson, and Michael Brantley. Tomlin is just $175,000 apart, Brantley is $1.1 million apart, but Masterson is $3.75 million apart with his club. Masterson is asking for $11.8 million and the Indians have offered $8.05 million, making it the largest arbitration gap in 2014. The Cardinals, Mariners, and Tigers also have pending arbitration cases.

Last year was the first year Major League Baseball saw no arbitration hearings since the mid-1970's, but it looks like there will be at least three cases this season as the Atlanta Braves have announced that they will go into hearings with Craig Kimbrel, Freddy Freeman, and Jason Heyward.

And because you were too kind to ask for it, here is a compiled list of the last arbitration case(s) each team has gone through, sorted in chronological order of the year of the last hearing:

Team
Last Hearing
Player
Player Figure
Team Figure
Winner
Indians1991Jerry Browne$ 1,100,000$ 800,000Club
Indians1991Greg Swindell$ 2,025,000$ 1,400,000Player
Blue Jays1997Bill Risley$ 550,000$ 380,000Club
Cardinals1999Darren Oliver$ 4,150,000$ 3,550,000Club
Tigers2000Karim Garcia$ 700,000$ 475,000Player
Mariners2000Brian L. Hunter$ 2,450,000$ 1,750,000Player
Rangers2000Lee Stevens$ 475,000$ 350,000Club
Diamondbacks2001Damian Miller$ 1,250,000$ 850,000Player
Braves2001Andruw Jones$ 8,200,000$ 6,400,000Player
Braves2001Kevin Millwood$ 3,900,000$ 3,100,000Club
Braves2001John Rocker$ 2,980,000$ 1,900,000Club
White Sox2001Keith Foulke$ 3,100,000$ 2,200,000Player
Red Sox2002Ronaldo Arrojo$ 2,800,000$ 1,900,000Club
Reds2004Chris Reitsma$ 1,450,000$ 950,000Club
Giants2004A.J. Pierzynski$ 3,500,000$ 2,250,000Player
Athletics2005Juan Cruz$ 860,000$ 600,000Club
Royals2006Emil Brown$ 1,775,000$ 1,400,000Club
Twins2006Kyle Lohse$ 3,950,000$ 3,400,000Player
Dodgers2007Joe Beimel$ 1,250,000$ 912,500Club
Padres2007Todd Walker$ 3,950,000$ 2,750,000Player
Rockies2008Brian Fuentes$ 6,500,000$ 5,050,000Club
Mets2008Oliver Perez$ 6,500,000$ 4,725,000Player
Yankees2008Chien-Ming Wang$ 4,600,000$ 4,000,000Club
Phillies2008Ryan Howard$ 10,000,000$ 7,000,000Player
Cubs2010Ryan Theriot$ 3,400,000$ 2,600,000Club
Astros2011Hunter Pence$ 6,900,000$ 5,150,000Player
Angels2011Jared Weaver$ 8,800,000$ 7,365,000Club
Orioles2012Brad Bergesen$ 1,200,000$ 800,000Club
Marlins2012Anibal Sanchez$ 8,000,000$ 6,900,000Player
Marlins2012Emilio Bonifacio$ 2,200,000$ 1,950,000Player
Brewers2012Jose Veras$ 2,375,000$ 2,000,000Club
Pirates2012Garrett Jones$ 2,500,000$ 2,250,000Club
Rays2012Jeff Niemann$ 3,200,000$ 2,750,000Club
Nationals2012John Lannan$ 5,700,000$ 5,000,000Club

Of course, even though there was a column for who won each case, the reality is that in arbitration, nobody wins. Well, except for the lawyers.

Source: The Biz of Baseball's "MLB Salary Arbitration Scoreboard"


Community Projection: Mark Buehrle

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Mark Buehrle had a pretty strange 2013 season. After giving up 7 runs in the third inning of the game on May 6 against the Rays he had a 7.03 ERA and we pretty much thought he was done, time to stick a fork into him. That game seemed to embarrass him enough to get him going. He was much much better after that, putting up a 3.43 ERA the rest of the way.

I'm not sure why he was so bad at the start of the season, he generally has started slow, but never as bad as last year. Maybe he was having a hard time getting along with J.P. Arencibia. Since JP isn't here anymore, let's blame him. Or credit him him for the improvement, if you would rather.

YearAgeTmWLERAGGSIPHERHRBBSOERA+WHIPH/9HR/9BB/9SO/9
201132CHW1393.593131205.12218221451091211.2959.70.92.04.8
201233MIA13133.743131202.11978426401251091.1718.81.21.85.6
201334TOR12104.153333203.2223942451139981.3459.91.12.36.1
14 Yrs1861423.844544292882.23030123132465516601171.2789.51.02.05.2
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/20/2014.

Bill James expects a 10-12 record, 3.97 ERA, in 32 starts, 204 innings. Other than the win/loss record, I think that works.

I'd go 3.90, 32 starts, 201 innings, and a 13-10 record or something like that.

I really do like watching Mark pitch, games are quick, he doesn't spend a lot of time thinking about what pitch to throw. You can't sleep between pitches or, you know, comment in a Game Thread, but you have to like someone that is the exact opposite of Jason Frasor. We may not have "loved him", since he didn't give us the best of first impressions, but he was fun to watch.

He's not going to put up an ERA that is much better than league average, but there is value in a guy that can make all of his starts.

Posting and Commenting Guidelines

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Time for our occasional reminder of the rules.

I figured it was time to put up our posting and commenting rules again.

The fun of the site is that with the comment areas, FanPosts, FanShots and Game Threads, everyone gets to share their opinions. We love to read everyone's opinions.

That said, we want to build a community here.

How do you become part of our community? Just get a membership here. Membership is free. All you need to do is pick a screen name and put in an email address so SB has somewhere to send the activation email. We have a one day wait period from when you apply for the membership until when it is activated. I know it is a pain, but we get hit with spammers almost all the time. The one day waiting period seems to cause them to lose interest.

Most of the guidelines fall under the umbrella of one idea: this blog is our living room. Make yourself comfortable, we like having you.

  • No derogatory references to race, nationality, sexual orientation or ethnicity at all, ever. A word that pops up a bit occasionally is retard. This word, or any version of it, is totally unacceptable around here.
  • In the same vein let's try not to be too sexist. I know sports blogs tend to be a men's club, but let's not act too stupid. We may be mostly guys but we do have female members. On top of that my wife my look in.
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  • Also, not so much a rule, as a request, we get new folks here all the time, it would be nice if we were a little friendlier to new folks. We want to site to continue to grow and to grow we need to be friendly to newcomers. Remember we were all new at one time.
  • Discussion of illegal streams is not allowed at all. SB Nation expects others to honor their copyrights, we have to honor others'.
  • Don't say anything you wouldn't say in our living room. Disagree? Sure, but keep things civil.
  • Don't attack other posters. Disagree with their ideas, but try to stay away from calling them names. I consider that people here are my friends (I let them in my living room) and I prefer not to see my friends insulted. We do have fun with each other, but calling someone stupid, crazy, etc. doesn't make for rational debate. This line gets smudged when we get fans from other teams joining in.
  • Some of us have been friends for awhile and some ribbing takes place. Try to take it in stride. Generally it means we like you. I get emails about this quite often, 'someone made a joke about something I said'. I'm sorry if you feel insulted, but I like joking around. Generally, if I joke with you, it's a good thing, you are part of the group.
  • Don't get upset if we or someone disagrees with you. Intelligent people can disagree. On the flip side, I've mentioned this before, but not everything needs to be argued.
  • Expect that people are going to challenge your opinions. Roll with it. Expect folks aren't going to just take your word. Be prepared to defend your position.
  • Remember we are all fans here and all equal. You may think you are smarter than all of us. You might even be (isn't all that hard), but try not to be too condescending to others.
  • Profanity isn't allowed. Try to keep George Carlin's 7 words out of it. You may be warned, your post maybe deleted or we might just watch to see if it continues to happen. Part of being an adult is being able to express yourself real words. On top of that never direct profanity at the players. A play may have been %#$%# but calling the player #$#@$# is not allowed.
  • Unless the player is Roger Clemens.
  • I've noticed people using one of the 7 words but putting a * in one (or more) of the letters. This doesn't make it better, just don't use the words.
  • In FanPosts, don't copy an article from another site in whole. If you see something you think our members should notice, it is better to post a link. That way you drive people to the other site, which gains them views and makes them happy.
  • Insulting Jays players is allowed, within limits, but remember this is our team. If you say something juvenile, you might get called out on it. Telling us that our player X is about to strikeout doesn't go over big. We cheer for our team.
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  • This is a Blue Jay fan site. We may rag on the team and the management, but we are fans. We aren't bandwagon jumpers. If you want to talk about other teams and how great they are, SB Nation has pages for all MLB teams, take it there. You want to say how great Red Sox Nation is, go to Over the Monster. Want to extol the virtues of the Yankees, go to Pinstripe Bible, please.
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So what happens if you cross the line? Well, one of the moderators might ask you to stop. If you are asked to stop something, please do, don't argue.

If a FanPost or a comment crosses the line, it might be deleted. Don't get too upset if we delete something posted. It doesn't happen often and it doesn't mean we don't love you.

We may give a formal warning. If that happens the next time you log into the site the warning will come up. Consider it the equivalent to a yellow card in soccer. But, don't argue it. We don't want to send a lot of time debating rules. We very rarely send warnings but it does happen.

And we can ban. Banning would be the red card. If you are banned you will no longer be allowed to post on here. You would be able to come back and read but not comment. We haven't used the ban button very often. Sometimes it gets to the point that someone is more trouble than they are worth. Running the site is a hobby for us and we aren't willing to put up with too much aggravation. There has been the odd person that figures their role in the world is just to aggravate others. That said, other than spammers, we've only banned a handful of people. Our members are great.

Generally, we don't ban someone until they become intolerable. I have to come to the site every day, if there is a poster that is making me not want to come, then, sorry, it is you or me and I've got the button. If you want to send a note telling me you didn't deserve to be banned, we do all have bad days, maybe try being reasonable  and we will consider it. Or if you are writing to tell me I'm a moron, use "you're a moron" not "your a moron"..

What should you do if you feel someone has broken the rules? Under every comment there is a button that says 'actions', if you hit that, two other buttons come up. One is 'rec', which you can hit if you like that comment. If you hit flag a window pops up asking you to tell why you are flagging it and to classify the reason as 'spam', 'trolling' or 'inappropriate'. We can't see everything that happens on here, so if you flag it, we can take a look and take appropriate action or just monitor the offending poster to see if more happens.

All that said, please if you have something you want to say, comment or write up a FanPost or FanShot. The fun of being here is reading people's opinions.

Blue Jays sign Ricardo Nanita

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How much would I like some real news?

Instead....

Ricardo is 32, he's played in the Jays minor leagues since 2010, before that he played in Mexico. He was part of the Dominican Republic's WBC team last year. He's played in 1046 minor league games, but hasn't had a moment in the majors. Last year he hit .258/.312/.376 with 6 home runs, splitting time between New Hampshire and Buffalo. He's pretty good defensively.

I'm excited, how about you?

Really, all teams make this kind of moves, at this time of year. Filling out minor league rosters is something that all teams have to do. And keeping someone in the system isn't a bad idea.

We did sign a international free agent last week, Hansel Rodriguez is a 16 year old RHP, out of the Dominican.

Catcher Profile: Yan Gomes

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Getting the nod for a starting gig behind the dish for the Indians in 2014, Yan Gomes could be a nice pick-up late in drafts this year...or could he?

After a two-month trial run as the Indians' primary backstop in 2013, Yan Gomes has gotten the green light for full-time duty behind the plate in 2014. Considered by many to be a better defensive catcher than his predecessor, Carlos Santana, the question that is pressing for fantasy owners is: What will Gomes bring to the table offensively? Let's check under the hood and find out:

Yan Gomes (Sao Paulo, Brazil) is a 26-year old right-handed hitter who was drafted in the 10th round by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2009 and was traded to the Indians along with utilityman Mike Aviles for Esmil Rogers in 2012. He has compiled a .287/.345/.484 slash line with an almost 3:1 K/BB ratio in over 1200 PAs (5 seasons) in the minors. In 2012 he was ranked as the Indians' 27th best prospect by Baseball America, and at the same time had his best year as a minor leaguer, slashing a .328/.380/.557 line with 13HR and 29 doubles in the hitter-friendly PCL.

In the majors, thus far, he has compiled a decent .271/.324/.453 line in a mere 433 PAs, hitting 11 HRs last year, getting his K-rate down to 20% from 28% in 2012, and flashing slightly above-average wOBA (.326) and wRC+ (108).

His batted ball data suggest a more-or-less average player (as does his plate discipline data), and it's possible that just a small regression in his pop-up rate will help his LD% (17.8%) creep up to league average (about 20%). He has an above-average HR/FB rate so far and his power has translated at the MLB level as well (career .182 ISO). His batted ball distance comes in at #118 overall, just a few ticks behind Wilin Rosario-and everyone seems to like his power output all right.

However, this is a small sample size so there's no telling what Gomes will do over the course of a season. His .342 BABIP is probably not sustainable over an entire year so expect the batting average to sit more comfortably around .260 or so as BABIP regression comes into play. He strikes out too much (never been below 21%), and he walks too little (career 5.5%) to be able to help in the OBP department. While the ISO, batted ball distance, and HR/FB numbers are nice, there are two things working against him regarding his power:

1. He's a dead pull hitter who likes the ball high and inside (vs. LHP), or low and inside (vs. RHP). All but two of his HRs went to left field last year. As the book gets around on this guy it'll be easy to pound him with stuff outside, which he'll probably offer at because of his below-average O-Swing rate of 36%, and

2. Progressive Field is generally known as a hitter's ballpark, but last year it played the 2nd toughest in the league by giving up HRs to right handers (only Pittsburgh played tougher).

Considering he really doesn't steal bases, will probably hit at or near the bottom of the order, and knowing that Carlos Santana is still able to catch if needed (which could cut into his ABs), I don't see much more than replacement level at catcher this year for Yan Gomes, despite his defensive prowess behind the dish. I wouldn't overpay for Gomes' services based on a nice show in the 2nd half of the season. I agree with ZiPS, more or less, and see a final line of .260/.310/.430 with 10-12 HR, 45 runs, and 45 RBI. For me Yan is more Ya(w)n than anything in 2014.

All data courtesy of:

fangraphs.com

baseball-reference.com

baseballamerica.com

SABR Day in Toronto - Saturday, January 25

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It took them some time to confirm the date and event details, but the Halan's Point Chapter of the Society for American Baseball Research has announced that they will be holding their annual SABR Day event this upcoming Saturday, January 25 at Pauper's Pub at 539 Bloor Street West in downtown Toronto. The event will run from 1-4 pm and all baseball fans are welcome to attend, but attendees are asked to RSVP with chapter president Allen Tait (atait4 [at] cogeco.ca).

David Gallagher, the co-author of Ecstasy to Agony: the 1994 Montreal Expos, is the guest speaker. There will also be presentations on Canadian batteries and the Black Sox Scandal. The group will also recap last year's SABR National Convention, and also outline this year's convention. The 2014 convention will be held in Houston during the first weekend of August--right when the Blue Jays will be playing at Minute Maid Park. The ultra-cool Astros will be allowing SABR attendees to meet with players and front office executives!

I look forward to seeing some of you there this Saturday!

Cub Tracks Reconvenes Lots Of Links

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Sunday was plentiful and today is more of the same Cub goodness. There's a veritable potpourri of links to choose from touching on Tanaka, the bright hopes for the future, and what the team administration has been hearing from the fans.

No reason to get cute with the title. There's a lot going on. And I hear a fairly significant signing will happen this week. Hopefully on the dotted line with the Cubs.

I also have stayed away from posting too many Tanaka rumor links, since they become dated so quickly. I assume you're up to date on the latest.

From Comcast SportsNet

From Cubs Den

From Cubs.com

From ESPNChicago.com

From the Chicago Tribune

From the Chicago Sun-Times

From the Daily Herald

Today's food for thought

Community Projection: Jose Bautista

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For the second straight season, Jose Bautista's season was shortened by injury. I really would like the Jays to start giving him a couple of days w week at DH. He's 33, not really old, but he as played a lot of games on our stupid turf.

Jose, like just about everyone on the team, had a slow start to the season, hitting just .200 in April. Then had a great May, hitting .337. Then back down, .222 in June, .242 in July and .288 in August, before going on the DL.

YearAgeTmGABRH2B3BHRRBISBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSOPS+
201029TOR1615691091483535412492100116.260.378.617.995164
201130TOR1495131051552424310395132111.302.447.6081.056182
201231TOR9233264801402765525963.241.358.527.886138
201332TOR118452821172402873726984.259.358.498.856132
10 Yrs10953620601918187132115764420580808.254.361.487.849125
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/20/2014.

Next year? Well, Bill James figures Jose will hit .256/.371/.512 with 33 home runs and 85 RBI in 134 games. I'm hoping he plays in a few more games, let's guess 145, and hit .265/..375/.530 with 40 home runs and 100 RBI.

I'm also predicting that, if the Jays don't win, we'll be told it is because Jose is a lousy leader, rotten teammate, a clubhouse cancer and that there are too many Dominicans on the team.


Masahiro Tanaka rumours: are Blue Jays "are in for sure" or not "in consideration"?

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Chris Cotillo, MLB Daily Dish's high school phenom, reported Monday night (after calculus homework, I assume) that an agent told him that the Toronto Blue Jays "are in for sure," when he was asked about the recent rumours that the Blue Jays did not put in a bid for Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka. Of course, "in for sure" does not mean the Blue Jays will be the team Tanaka chooses to sign with, nor does it necessarily mean that Toronto even put in a bid. It just means that the agent knows (or has learned) that Toronto has been heavily involved somehow in the Tanakathon.

On the other end of the age scale, Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star reported Monday morning (probably not after calculus homework) that the Toronto Blue Jays were "not among the teams in consideration," but that the Blue Jays "[appear to be] quietly confident it can land one from that next group [of free agent starters]." Griffin included a tidbit later in the piece, writing that Anthopoulos "has a solid relationship" with the agents of Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana.

So, we're back to, "who knows?"... which it is what it has been all along, really. The deadline for Tanaka to choose his favourite contract will be 5 pm this Friday, so we still have three days of wild speculation left! And just to demonstrate the level of insanity that this Tanaka hype has reached, there were hundreds of tweeters running to translate this Japanese tweet from Tanaka:

Cutting-and-pasting that into Google Translate spits out a somewhat nonsensical "It does is decided (· _ ·;"  but that didn't stop twitter-ers from jumping to the conclusion that Tanaka had made a decision of what team he was headed off to. But of course, Japanese is a fundamentally different language than English, with very different syntax and all, which makes it prone to mistranslation. So I wasn't surprised when it was revealed by a Japanese speaker that it said exactly opposite of what everyone thought it said....

Blue Jays willing to forfeit draft pick for starting pitcher

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The team has been linked to both Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez recently, both of whom would require the loss of a pick.

With the Toronto Blue Jays appearing to be out on Masahiro Tanaka, the team is willing to forfeit its second-round draft pick for one of the remaining free agent starting pitchers, reports Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star.

That's good news for Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana. Both players are still looking for a new team after turning down qualifying offers from their 2013 clubs. The Blue Jays have been linked to both pitchers and a willingness to give up a draft pick shows how serious the team is.

Toronto is looking to bolster a rotation that finished with a 4.81 ERA in 2013, the second-worst mark in all of the major leagues. Part of that was due to injury -- Mark Buehrle and R.A. Dickey were the only two to make over 18 starts as Josh Johnson, J.A. Happ and Brandon Morrow all dealt with various maladies.

However, even when the projected starting staff was healthy, they did not pitch particularly well. Thirteen pitchers made a start for the Blue Jays in 2013 and just one -- Chad Jenkins, who started three games -- had an ERA under 4.15. That, more than anything, led to the team finishing with a disappointing 74-88 record. Morrow, Dickey and Buehrle are expected to lead the starting staff with better performances than they had in 2013. Bringing in Santana or Jimenez could make them that much more formidable. Of course, even if the team didn't want to give up a draft pick it could pursue Bronson Arroyo or Matt Garza.

Typically, a team must give up its highest pick to sign a player who turned down a qualifying offer. The Blue Jays have two first-round picks in the 2014 draft, but both selections are protected.

More from SB Nation MLB:

Neyer: The Hall of Famer who was always wrong

2014 MLB salary arbitration tracker

The four least-beloved figures in baseball

MLB salaries trending up

Five teams make formal offers to Tanaka | AL tracker | NL tracker

Interview: Charlie Wilson on the changes in Blue Jays player development staffing

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Last Monday, the Blue Jays announced their minor league coaching staff for 2014. One of the more significant moves was the promotion of Clayton McCullough to the position of "Coordinator of Instruction". We had a question in the comments about what that role really entails, so I caught up with the Blue Jays' director of minor league operations Charlie Wilson to ask him about a few of the most interesting moves. Wilson was appointed to his current position in 2009, having working his way up the organization since joining as a summer intern with the public relations department in 1993. He has been a baseball assistant with the baseball operations department, scouting coordinator, and the manager of minor league operations. His duties is to be the overseer of all the day-to-day operations of player development and the Blue Jays' farm system.

Clayton McCullough, Coordinator of Instruction

McCullough was most recently the manager of the short-season Vancouver Canadians. The 34-year-old joined the Blue Jays organization in 2006 as the hitting coach in rookie-level Pulaski, as a rookie coach. It was there where he instructed a young Travis Snider, fresh from being drafted out of high school. He got a managerial position with the Gulf Coast Blue Jays in 2007 before moving to Lansing for two seasons and Dunedin for another two. He won the Florida State League Manager of the Year award in 2011, then was assigned to manage in Vancouver. His clubs have made the playoffs every year since 2010, and he won two Northwest League championships with Vancouver in 2012 and 2013.

In 2013, the Blue Jays called for the former catcher to join the big league team to begin the year as their interim backup catcher to demonstrate the organization's commitment to, and confidence in, him. Charlie Wilson seemed to be very high on young McCullough and his talents for player development.

"This is a senior position in the player development department," Wilson explained,"to characterize it, he’s an extension of the field coordinator Doug Davis. He will work closely with Doug and will be exactly like a rover, going from team to team from day one of the season right through the playoffs."

"Starting in spring training, he’ll be setting the daily schedule, running it by the field coordinator and the pitching coordinator. Clayton will be in charge of organizing a lot of the administration behind-the-scenes with scheduling and the fundamental work players will be doing on the field every day."

Rich Miller, Senior Advisor for Player Development

Rich Miller was the Senior Roving Instructor in 2013 and is moved to a slightly different title and role for 2014, taking over the senior advisor role from Tim Leiper, who is now Toronto's first-base coach. Miller has been in coaching for 35 years, starting as a player-coach for the double-A affiliate of the Mets in 1979. He joined the Blue Jays organization in 2010 as a roving minor league outfield and baserunner coach and served in that role until 2013 when Tim Raines was hired. Miller served as the Vancouver Canadians' interim manager starting in mid-August through their Northwest League championship after John Schneider left the team to tend to a personal matter.

In his new role, Miller will serve as the "right-hand man" (he bats left, though) to Charlie Wilson and minor league field coordinator Doug Davis on the operations side, but that doesn't mean he will leave coaching behind.

"Rich will continue to have a big part in outfield and baserunning part of our development. He has a wealth of experience [and] knowledge, so we’re happy to put him in a position where he will be able to evaluate--he will rove, going from team to team," Wilson said, "he will be very involved in the day-to-day operation and instruction, but he will be evaluating for the most part when the season gets running. We’re happy to have a guy with that much knowledge and experience to be with us."

John Nunnally, Hitting Coach, New Hampshire Fisher Cats

When the Blue Jays moved Gary Allenson from managing the Fisher Cats up to the Bisons, they decided to send swap the hitting coaches in triple-A and double-A as well, sending Richie Hebner to the Bisons and John Nunnally to the Fisher Cats. Nunally's move is a "shift" rather than a demotion, as Wilson was careful to point out.

"John is a very loyal guy. In talking with him this year and in previous years, I think he is very happy at the double-A level or the triple-A level," Wilson said, "a lot of time, coaches have their ultimate goal of instructing and coaching in the big leagues, and I think John falls within that group. He has had time as a player and a coach with the Indians."

Nunnally joined the coaching staff of the Fisher Cats in 2012 after serving parts of two seasons as the Indians' big league hitting coach.

"At the end of the day, he wants to help the young players get better," Wilson continued, "and he’s very excited about being hitting coach in double-A just as he was a couple years ago before he came to Buffalo. He’s still a very important part of our system."

Jeff Ware, Pitching Coach, Vancouver Canadians

Long-time Blue Jays fans may remember the name Jeff Ware, who pitched in 18 games over two seasons for the Blue Jays in 1995 and 1996. Ware was the 35th-overall pick in the 1991 amateur draft, a compensation pick for the loss of George Bell. He started his professional career in Dunedin in 1992, but missed half of the season, all of 1993, and half of 1994 due to rotator cuff injuries. When he was called up to the Blue Jays in September 1995, he had only made 38 professional starts. I was a kid back then, but I remember him being shellacked in the majority of his starts.

"I know Jeff," Wilson recalled his early years with the Blue Jays, "he was a first-round draft choice by the Blue Jays, he pitched for us in the big leagues, he pitched for us in Syracuse and a bunch of other teams."

After leaving the Blue Jays, Ware would pitch in triple-A for Milwaukee in 1997 before ending his pitching career by playing five years in independent ball. He returned to affiliated baseball as the pitching coach for the short-season Staten Island Yankees in 2007 before being promoted to single-A Charleston then finally to advanced-A Tampa in 2011. The Blue Jays took special notice of their former player's coaching abilities when Dunedin played Tampa in the Florida State League.

"We’re familiar with Jeff, we like what he does on the field. It was one of those situations where we knew who he was, we knew he was very capable, we thought he’d be a very good pitching coach, but he was under contract with another organization," Wilson said, "when his contract wasn’t renewed, we jumped at the chance to interview him. Then when an opportunity became available, like it did here the last few weeks with some of the shuffling, we were able to offer him a position. We’re happy to have him aboard on the staff side."

John Schneider, Manager, Vancouver Canadians

After leaving the Canadians due to a personal matter in 2011, Schneider was named as the manager for the Gulf Coast Blue Jays and served in that capacity in 2012 and 2013. He will return to Vancouver in 2014 after the promotion of Clayton McCullough, where he will be looking lead his team to a fourth consecutive title. He was also acting as a minor league catching instructor in spring training last season.

"John is another very capable young staff member that we have. His skillset is certainly that of a manager and we’re lucky to have him," Wilson said, " I don’t think there was a plan to move him to Vancouver then back down to the Gulf Coast League then back to Vancouver—there were certain circumstances that dictated that, but we’re just happy that he’s going back to Vancouver. He’s a very capable young man, he’s a good leader, he’s a good teacher, and he manages the game well, and he’s a good ambassador for the organization. We’re happy that he’s back."

Other tidbits

A.J. Jimenez: The Blue Jays have not committed on whether to send Jimenez to Buffalo or New Hampshire to start the season. Wilson said that there have been internal discussions and thoughts, but "I think spring training is going to ultimately determine where A.J. will play this year."

Tomo Ohka: Wilson denies that Ohka was brought in to train A.J. Jimenez to catch knuckleballs, saying that "he’s coming in as a pitcher" and that they brought him in to "evaluate his ability to throw his knuckleball in spring training, and go from there."

Today In Blue Jay History: Vernon Wells Traded

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Three years ago today, Alex Anthopoulos did the impossible (well I guess not the impossible, but surely the improbable) by trading Vernon Wells (and $5 million) to the Angels for Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera.

Our reaction to the trade? Well:

Disbelief. And then, well, joy. Reaction from the rest of the Jays blog roll and the rest of the media was much the same.

The timing of the trade was beautiful. In 2010 Vernon earned $15,687,500, he had a really good season and was well worth the money. In 2011 he made $26,187,500 (who was the one that decided on such strange numbers?). We paid $5 million of that, and he was terrible. Last year he made $21 million and next year he gets the same to not play baseball for the Yankees. The Angels are playing $18.6 million of that $21.

Vernon's numbers since:

YearAgeTmGABRH2B3BHRRBISBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
201132LAA131505601101542566942086.218.248.412.660
201233LAA772433656901129311635.230.279.403.682
201334NYY13042445991601150733073.233.282.349.631
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/21/2014.

Yeah, the trade couldn't have come at a better time. I still can't believe the Angels made that deal, but I am thankful to them. Even as a utility infielder, those numbers aren't good.

What we got back? It really didn't matter, just getting rid of that contract made it one of the best trades ever for the Jays, but let's look anyway.

Juan Rivera, who I called a Garden Gnome for his lack of range in the outfield, and it stuck, sorry Juan, wasn't wonderful for us. He hit .243/.305/.360 with 6 home runs and 28 RBI. He had a short stint as our first baseman, filling in for Adam Lind, went he went out with an injury, he was pretty good at first base. Lind was having a great season, to that point, hitting .313/.343.516, then he had an awful 2nd half of he season, hitting just .197, but I digress. Juan was given to the Dodgers on July 12th.

Mike Napoli was flipped to the Rangers 4 days later, for Frank Francisco, not one of Alex's better trades. Napoli would go on to hit .320/.414/.631 in 2011, that would have been nice to have on our team.  But then, if we had Napoli, we likely would have let Edwin Encarnacion leave, and that, knowing what we know now, would have been a mistake. It would have been nice to have been able to keep Napoli away from the Red Sox.

FrankieMcFrankFrank wasn't loved by fans. He had a rough start to the season, by the end of May he had 3 blown saves, 2 loses and an ERA of 6.14 (there was some saves in there too) . Bad first impressions are hard to overcome. He did pitch better the rest of the way, but, for a bit there, Jon Rauch took the closer job back. That really didn't go well. Frank finished the season with 21 saves and a 3.73 ERA. After the season he signed with the Mets as a free agent. Since Frankie was a 'Type B' free agent, we got the 50th pick in the 2012 draft for his signing and picked 6'8", left-handed pitcher Matt Smoral. That looks like a great trade to me.

All that really mattered about the trade, was the saving the money. I doubt last year's trade with the Marlins would have happened if we still had to pay Vernon $21 million this year.

Vernon Wells will always be one of my favorite players, the man hustled, he went hard down the line on every ground ball, he always worked hard, he gives to charity. The contract is awful, but I can separate the player an the contract. But I'm glad AA found a way to get rid of that contract at just the right time.

Masahiro Tanaka's Potential Destinations Narrowed Down!

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BREAKING NEWS!

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In shocking news Tuesday, reports came out that much sought-after pitcher Masahiro Tanaka had narrowed down his list of possible destinations. As you would imagine, this ramped up expectations about where the right-hander will land as it's now known precisely how many teams are in on the sweepstakes.

The reports are in Japanese as you would expect, but luckily all it took to get to the bottom of the rumours was some Google Translate:

北米にあるすべてのチーム

That kind of translates to:

All teams in the North American

WOAH, stop the presses! There's now a 100% chance that Masahiro Tanaka ends up on the North American continent after spending the majority of his life pitching in Asia. That's big news that hadn't been known until now. But that's not all! The report goes on to say:

彼は30のMLBチームの一つで署名する

Translated, this roughly states:

He signed with one of the MLB team of 30

The tenses might be a little messed up, but the message remains the same: one of the 30 teams in Major League Baseball will be landing the highly prized Tanaka! It seems that the rest of the process is a mere formality as he chooses one of the teams from his narrowed list.

Just to make it clear, the teams still with a shot at Masahiro Tanaka include:

Arizona Diamondbacks

Atlanta Braves

Baltimore Orioles

Boston Red Sox

Chicago Cubs

Chicago White Sox

Cincinnati Reds

Cleveland Indians

Colorado Rockies

Detroit Tigers

Houston Astros

Kansas City Royals

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Los Angeles Dodgers

Miami Marlins

Milwaukee Brewers

Minnesota Twins

New York Mets

New York Yankees

Oakland Athletics

Philadelphia Phillies

Pittsburgh Pirates

San Diego Padres

San Francisco Giants

Seattle Mariners

St. Louis Cardinals

Tampa Bay Rays

Texas Rangers

Toronto Blue Jays

Washington Nationals

I think I speak for everyone when I say it's been a long time coming to finally know the list of teams that still have a shot at the Japanese import so the rest of the teams' fans can go back to living their normal lives.

Inspiration:

The Not-So-Secret Weapon of Sergio Santos

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Sergio Santos was unbelievable when he pitched in 2013. What can we expect in 2014?

2013 was a year with a great deal of surprises for Blue Jays fans. Unfortunately, very few of those surprises were of the pleasant variety. In fact, it would probably be fair to describe the season as a whole as an unpleasant surprise. However, even within the depressing black hole that was last season there were a few joyful revelations regarding some of the players on this team. Dustin McGowan made more than a cameo appearance, Colby Rasmus was excellent, and Edwin Encarnacion showed that the gains he made in 2012 were sustainable and managed to grow as a player by seemingly deciding that striking out was something he no longer felt like doing. One of the pleasant surprises that has been discussed relatively infrequently in the context of the last year's disaster was Sergio Santos's season.

It would be unfair to call the season Sergio Santos had an unmitigated success due to the fact he logged only 25.2 innings, but when he did see the field he was pretty incredible. Here's a review of what he did in limited work last season:

IP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

HR/FB

BABIP

ERA

FIP

xFIP

25.2

9.82

1.40

0.35

4.2%

.175

1.75

1.84

2.61

The .175 BABIP is ludicrously low and it's hard to see a 4.2% HR/FB rate holding up at the Rogers Centre in 2014, so the xFIP is likely the most reliable indicator here. That being said, a 2.61 xFIP is pretty impressive. Perhaps the most worthwhile gain here is the way that Sergio Santos cut down on his walks from a career BB/9 rate of 3.89 to a fairly minuscule 1.40. In a sample this small a great deal can happen and mean absolutely nothing, but Santos demonstrated pinpoint control for the first time in his career last season. For a guy who is fairly new to pitching, in the scheme of things, that's fairly encouraging.

When examining a small sample looking at the results will rarely yield many answers we can trust, but looking at change in approach can be far more enlightening. Luckily for us, it appears that Sergio Santos made such a change last year. If we re-examine Santos's improved control numbers we can find out the origin of this improved control. Essentially, there are two reliable ways to throw more strikes. You can throw the ball in the zone more or you can have guys swing at your pitches outside the zone more. It's also conceivable to get the umpire to call a lot more of your balls as strikes, but you need a significant catching change to a superlative pitch framer for that to come into the equation in a truly meaningful way. If we assume that in order to cut his walk rate Santos had to get more swings out of the zone or put his pitches in the zone more consistently a look at his PITCHf/x plate discipline numbers shows which of the two was a more significant factor:

Time Period

O-Zone Swing%

Zone%

2013

42.3%

48.5%

Career

32.3%

48.1%

It seems apparent that the root of Santos's ability to cut down on his walks in 2013 was an improved ability to get batters to chase out of the zone. That makes us ask how he managed to accomplish that. The answer to that question lies in his pitch selection, which changed significantly in 2013:

Time Period

Fastballs

Sliders

Changeups

Uncategorized

2013

53.6%

42.7%

3.6%

2.6%

Career

59.1%

29.9%

11.0%

2.0%

Santos leaned on slider more than ever before last year, which is significant because when it comes to getting guys to chase out of the zone his slider is a pretty unbelievable tool. The following Brooks Baseball zone profile shows hitters' swing rate against Santos's slider and as you can see hitters chase out of the zone with impunity:

Moreover, when they do decide to swing they are consistently coming up empty. Notice the low and away quadrant to right-handed hitters in the following zone profile depicting batters' whiffs per swing against the slider:

That picture shows a pitch that is ridiculously effective. More often than not when writers use words like "ridiculously" there is some degree of hyperbole but the slider of Sergio Santos is really, truly, ridiculous.

What we have here is a situation where a pitcher is leaning more heavily on his best pitch and having a great deal of success. Seems fairly normal, seems fairly intuitive, and seems like it's a good idea. However, unfortunately it's a little more complicated than that. There is evidence to suggest that sliders put additional stress on pitchers' arms and can make them more likely to spend so time on the disabled list. In fact, in Jeff Zimmerman's yearly DL% predictions he includes pitchers that throw sliders 30% of time or more in a special high-risk category.

Injury predictions are far from an exact science and every pitcher is different, but it's possible that Sergio Santos is putting his arm at additional risk by his very heavy usage of his admittedly unbelievable slider. Given that Santos has managed to pitch just 30.2 innings in his two seasons with the Blue Jays due to an onslaught of injuries he's not the type of guy who can afford to be taking risks with his arm. There is no definitive way to say that Sergio Santos will get injured or stay healthy, but this is a situation where a known injury risk might be further decreasing his chances of staying off the DL with his approach. The slider intensive approach definitely worked for Santos in 2013 but it is a scary one going forward.

When you've got a weapon like the slider in Sergio Santos's arsenal it's hard to resist turning to it as often as humanly possible. However, such a strategy might not be in the Blue Jays setup man's best interests going forward. If Santos continues with the approach that made him an elite reliever,albeit in a limited sample, in 2013 Blue Jays fans may well end up seeing something similar in 2014: a small quantity of brilliant innings.

New York Yankees sign Masahiro Tanaka to a seven-year, $155 million contract

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According to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, the Blue Jays' American League East rivals New York Yankees have signed Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka to a seven-year, $155 million contract, which includes a player opt-out clause after the fourth year. Of course, the total cost of the contract for the Yankees would be $175 million, since they will have to send $20 million to the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles.

I don't think anyone can blame Alex Anthopoulos for not matching the outrageous cost for Tanaka.

More to come, or not, I guess.

FEELINGS UPDATE

10:11 am: Masahiro Tanaka isn't really going to be that good, right? He certainly won't. He'll make the Yankees look like absolute fools after he's out of baseball in two seasons.

11:00 am: I hate the Yankees. I hate the AL East. I hate the amount of money thrown at players. I hate baseball. I hate winter. I hate everything. Leave me alone. Go away.

Poll
If you were in charge of the Blue Jays, would you have given Masahiro Tanaka this contract?

  570 votes |Results


Roy Halladay invited to attend Phillies spring training as guest instructor

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So I guess it really was a one-day contract.

Reports out of Philadelphia indicate that Roy Halladayhas been invited to attend the Phillies' spring training camp in Clearwater as a guest instructor along with Larry Andersen, Brad Lidge, former Blue Jays designated hitter Dave Hollins, and former Jays radio broadcaster Gary Matthews.

When he announced his retirement, both Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos and Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro, Jr. commented that they would like to invite Halladay back to their respective organizations in to assist with player development. Jays president Paul Beeston even went so far as to say that Halladay would "likely" be at spring training with Toronto this year. There is a chance that Halladay could attend both camps, as Clearwater and the Blue Jays' spring training home in Dunedin are just a 20-minute drive from each other.

Halladay, 36, is younger than Shawn Camp and Bobby Abreu, who will be attending Phillies big league camp as non-roster invitees. The Phillies have eight players born in the 1970s on their active roster.

In other news, the Phillies have signed everyone's favourite minor league second baseman (at least back in April and May) Jim Negrych to a minor league deal.

Blue Jays were in on Masahiro Tanaka but....

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So John Lott tells us this

And this:

Ummmm guys, if you weren't willing to go over 5 years, you really weren't in on Tanaka.

Honestly, everyone knew Tanaka was going to get more than 5 years. Having a rule that excludes you from signing players is just stupid. I mean, it's fine to have a guideline saying you don't want to go more than 5 years, but any rule has to have exceptions. If you had some thoughts of being in on Tanaka, you really had to be thinking more than 5 years.

And I don't understand why the 'opt out' clause would be an issue now. That's something to worry about a few years from now. I can't see why that would be a reason to 'drop out of talks'. Aren't we in win now mode? You don't want to go more than 5 years, but you don't want to player to be able to opt out after 4? Oh well....

I think what the Yankees are paying is too much, but for the club to say the reason we didn't get him was the contract was 2 years too long is just dumb. What they are telling us is that they are not cheap, they are just slaves to their own stupid rule. Maybe, just an idea, we could deal with each player on a case by case basis, like, you know, intelligent people would. I mean, try to stay to 5 years, but be flexible if there is someone that you think is worth signing to a longer contract. .

Anyway...here are some Vegas odds related to Masahiro Tanaka:

Will Masahiro Tanaka win the win the 2014 AL Cy Young?

Yes 10/1

Total ERA in the 2014 Regular Season - Masahiro Tanaka

Over/Under 3.20

Total Wins in the 2014 Regular Season - Masahiro Tanaka

Over/Under 14½

Yankees Odds to win World Series Pre-Tanaka

14/1

Yankees Odds to win World Series Post-Tanaka

10-1

I'll take the over on the ERA. I very much doubt he'll stay under 3.20 in that stadium. Anything there you would put $5 down on?

Cincinnati Reds Top 20 Prospects for 2014

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The Cincinnati Reds have four B+ or better prospects plus a wide range of potentially interesting Grade C possibilities.

Cincinnati Reds Top 20 Prospects for 2014

The list and grades are a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Comments are welcome, but in the end all analysis and responsibility is mine. Full reports on all of players can be found in the 2014 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders for the book, so order early and order often!

All of these grades are preliminary and subject to change.

QUICK PRIMER ON GRADE MEANINGS:

Grade A prospects are the elite. They have a reasonable chance of becoming stars or superstars. In theory, most Grade A prospects develop into major league regulars, if injuries or unanticipated problems don't intervene. Note that is a major "if" in some cases.


Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers. Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.


Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Some end up as role players or bench guys. Many don't make it at all.


Also note that there is diversity within each category. I'm a tough grader; Grade C+ is actually good praise, and some C+ prospects (especially at lower levels) turn out very well indeed.

Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment in the book for my full opinion about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.

1) Robert Stephenson, RHP, Grade A: Combines one of the best fastballs in the minor leagues with a really good curveball and an improving changeup. Command has come along nicely and he has everything needed to be a top-line starting pitcher.

2) Billy Hamilton, OF, Grade B+:
Normally I am a skeptic about speed players, but Hamilton is off-the-charts on that tool and I think there is more in the bat than he showed last year. At worst he should be something like Vince Coleman. If he can get on-base at a remotely-adequate clip, his speed will be incredibly disruptive.

3) Phillip Ervin, OF, Grade B+:
A more balanced, complete player than Hamilton with 20/20 potential to go with on-base ability. I’d like to see him at higher levels but he should be a valuable investment in a long-term fantasy league and a solid regular outfielder.

4) Jesse Winker, OF, Grade B+:
Good power and on-base ability stood out in Low-A, met or exceeded all expectations for a supplemental first-rounder. A future outfield of Hamilton in center, Ervin and Winker on the corners would be extremely intriguing if they live up to their potential.

5) David Holmberg, LHP, Grade B-:
Traded from the Diamondbacks, Holmberg isn’t spectacular but he throws his average fastball, curve, and change for strikes and eats innings without getting hurt, profiling as a number four starter.

6) Michael Lorenzen, RHP, Grade B-:
Supplemental first rounder went from Cal State Fullerton to Double-A in two months. Very athletic, excellent fastball, development of changeup will determine if he starts or relieves.

7) Ben Lively, RHP, Grade B-:
Fourth round pick from Central Florida made huge gains with his command over the last year; dominated college as well as the Pioneer League. Throws strikes with low-90s fastball, curve, slider, changeup. Potential fourth starter and perhaps more; I like him.

8) Carlos Contreras, RHP, Grade C+:
Very good stuff with low-90s fastball, curve, changeup, although shaky control still holds him back to some extent. Probably more reliever than starter in the long run but we’ll see.

9) Yorman Rodriguez, OF, Grade C+:
Remains more potential than production but has made some progress over the last year. Contact remains troublesome but the tools remain interesting and he’s still just 21.

10) Jon Moscot, RHP, Grade C+:
Throws four pitches for strikes. I am old enough to remember when his 2-14 record at Bakersfield would be held against him, but baseball has progressed enough that no one really notices that, focusing more (as they should) on his K/BB ratio and ability to work the zone.

11) Nick Travieso, RHP, Grade C+:
2012 first rounder not throwing 95 like he did in high school, although low-90s is still good enough if his breaking ball and changeup progress. Not spectacular in the Midwest League (4.63 ERA, 61/27 K/BB in 82 innings) but he throws strikes at least.

12) Seth Mejias-Brean, 3B, Grade C+:
University of Arizona product hit .305/.379/.457 in A-ball. He’s also a superior defender at third base. Main issues are age (23 last year) and lack of home run power for a corner player, but he’s not punchless.

13) Daniel Corcino, RHP, Grade C+
: Borderline C+. Ugly numbers at Triple-A Louisville (5.86 ERA, 90/73 K/BB in 129 innings) but he was much more effective in winter ball (12/1 K/BB in 10 relief innings). Perhaps bullpen work will be a better fit. Improved command will be better in any event.

14) Tucker Barnhart, C, Grade C:
Borderline C+. Defense-oriented catcher threw out 37% of runners in Double-A while hitting.260/.348/.348. Controls the strike zone but lack of power makes him more likely to be a reserve than a starter.

15) Chad Rogers, RHP, Grade C:
Borderline C+. 28th round pick from 2010 throws strikes with average fastball, good slider, adequate changeup. Posted 3.21 ERA with 103/45 K/BB in 140 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, then pitched well in Arizona Fall League (12/4 K/BB in 14 innings, 0.66). Potential fifth starter or reliever.

16) Ismael Guillon, LHP, Grade C:
4.75 ERA in Low-A but with 134 strikeouts in 121 innings, only 95 hits. He also walked 95, far too many. Good changeup but command of fastball and curveball need a lot of work. Young enough to improve, turns 22 in a month.

17) Jeremy Kivel, RHP, Grade C:
10th round pick in 2012 but would have ranked much higher if not for knee injury. Made debut in ’13 with decent results, 3.91 ERA with 56/23 K/BB in 51 innings in rookie ball. Somewhat raw but has the arm strength to take a large step forward and should be regarded as a significant sleeper prospect.

18) Junior Arias, OF, Grade C:
Potentially outstanding speed/power combination, with 60 swipes and 15 homers last year in A-ball. His strike zone judgment is horrid however: 18 walks, 132 strikeouts in 493 at-bats. Improving his approach is a huge "if", but the upside is there.

19) Kevin Garcia, OF, Grade C:
Like several Reds prospects, Garcia has some tools including speed and power potential. Unlike others, he controlled the strike zone well, in rookie ball at least (23 walks, 27 whiffs in 214 at-bats with a .308/.383/.449 line). At age 20 he was a bit old for the AZL so I want to see him at higher levels, but this is another guy who could rank higher next year with more data.

20) Tyler Mahle, RHP, Grade C:
Seventh round pick in 2013 from high school in California, pitched well in rookie ball (2.36 ERA, 30/8 K/BB in 34 innings) and impressed observers with combination of stuff projection and already-present command. Breakout candidate.

OTHERS: Nick Christiani, RHP; Drew Cisco, RHP; Tim Crabbe, RHP; Amir Garrett, LHP; Ryan LaMarre, OF; Donald Lutz, OF-1B; Reydel Medina, OF; Curtis Partch, RHP; Tanner Rahier, 3B; Henry Rodriguez, 2B; Sal Romano, RHP; Juan Silva, OF; Josh Smith, RHP; Neftali Soto, 1B-3B; Kyle Waldrop, OF. You could make cases for most of these guys to slot in the 15-20 range.

The Reds system seems top-heavy at first glance. Stephenson is one of the top pitching arms in baseball and Hamilton is the fastest guy I’ve ever seen in person. As noted above, I think he can improve enough as a hitter for the speed to matter, although it may take two years of patience on Cincinnati’s part for him to get there. Erwin and Winker both look like regular outfielders.

After this quartet, the talent level trails off, although it could look much different a year from now. Many of the Grade C+/C types have the potential for higher grades, particularly young arms like Kivel and Mahle who need to see more innings from them at higher levels. There’s also the usual set of toolsy hitters with doubtful plate discipline that the Reds like to sign, with Kevin Garcia a potential exception. Also watch for Cuban Reydel Medina.

Other Grade Cs like Josh Smith, Chad Rogers, or Tim Crabbe don’t have exciting stuff but could be useful inning-eaters and bullpen assets. Ben Lively should be watched quite closely; he could advance through the organization very rapidly.

Overall, the organization likely ranks about the middle of the pack. Any team would love to have the top four, but we need to see how the C-types sort out.

Community Projections: Adam Lind

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Adam Lind has been a member of the Blue Jays for a long time now. He was a September call up in 2006. Bounced up and down, between Toronto and  Syracuse in 2007. He had a few unsuccessful at bats at the end of April 2007, after the team released Frank Thomas and before they added Brad Wilkerson and Kevin Mench, then, when Cito took over as manager, he finally came up to stay, minus a trip to the minors to fix up his swing.

With Adam, we know what we have, someone that can hit right-handers, and shouldn't ever swing against lefties. I'm hoping that Gibby has figured that out too. Last year Adam hit .308/9/.385/.539 in 421 plate appearances and just .208/.240/.333 in 100 PA against lefties. We had a more detailed look at Lind's 2012 stats back here.

His last three seasons:

YearAgeTmGABRH2B3BHRRBISBCSBBSOBAOBPSLGOPSOPS+
201127TOR1254995612516026871132107.251.295.439.73495
201228TOR9332128821421145002961.255.314.414.72997
201329TOR1434656713426123671051103.288.357.497.854132
8 Yrs85731173918381721014047964245661.269.322.465.788109
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/23/2014.

Bill James figures Lind will hit .276/.339/.473 with 21 home runs in 134 games.

Adam's season depends on us figuring on a right-handed bat to platoon with him. I'm ok with it being Moises Sierra, but I have a feeling that the Jays are going to look for an old guy going into his last season.

I'm a fan, I like Adam. I think James' numbers are likely pretty close. I'll say .285/.350/.500, with 22 home runs.

Blue Jays ZiPS Projections

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Fangraphs has post the ZiPS projections for the Blue Jays.

They figure our top batters to be:

Jose Bautista: 4.0 WAR

Brett Lawrie: 3.3 WAR

Edwin Encarnacion: 3.2 WAR

Jose Reyes: 3.1 WAR

Colby Rasmus: 2.8 WAR

And our top 3 starting pitchers:

R.A. Dickey 3.1 WAR

Brandon Morrow: 2.2 WAR. You know I'm guessing he'll be lower or higher tan that

Mark Buehrle: 2.0 WAR

Of course, those spots aren't the ones we are worried about.

The more worrisome positions:

Catchers:

Fangraphs gives us projections for 4 different catchers:

Dioner Navarro: 279 PA, .264/.325/.420, 9 home runs and a 1.5 WAR. It seems like they don't figure him to be able to handle a full season of work. 1.5 WAR would be a nice improvement from JP.

Erik Kratz: 292 PA, .234/.295/.423, with 12 home runs and a 1.1 WAR.

Josh Thole: 363 PA, .254/.319/.364, 6 home runs and a 1.0 WAR.

A.J. Jimenez: 312 PA, .253/.287/.355, 4 home runs and a 1.0 WAR.

So whatever pairing we end up with, we should be better than last year. I'm not so sure that  Thole would bounce back that much from his lousy 2013, but we can hope. I'm kind of cheering for Kratz to get the job of backing up Navarro.

Second Base:

Maicer Izturis: 372 PA, .259/.314/.344,  4 home runs, and a 0.1 WAR. That's a lot better than last year's -2.1 WAR.

Ryan Goins: 564 PA, .241/.279/.338, 6 home runs and a 0.4 WAR. He's not going to get 564 plate appearances, but the slash line looks right.

Munenori Kawasaki: 397 PA, .246/.302/.303, 1 home run and a 0.1 WAR.

Steve Tolleson: 441 PA, .235/.297/.343, 6 home runs and a 0.4 WAR. .

I'd still like us to pick up a second baseman.

Left Field:

Melky Cabrera: 575 PA, .290/.329/.433, 12 home runs and a 1.2 WAR. After last year, I'd take that.

Anthony Gose: 616 PA, .244/.303/.357, 6 home runs, 29 steals, and a 1.1 WAR

Moises Sierra: 534 PA, .245/.296/.396,15 home runs and a 0.2 WAR.

4th and 5th Starter:

Marcus Stroman: 4.41 ERA, 114.1 innings, 1.2 WAR.

Sean Nolin: 4.51 ERA, 107.2 innings, 1.0 WAR.

J.A. Happ: 4.68 ERA, 125 innings, 0.9 WAR.

Drew Hutchison: 4.55 ERA, 59.1 innings, 0.5 WAR.

Esmil Rogers: 4.82 ERA, 112 innings, 0.3 WAR.

Todd Redmond: 5.49 ERA, 119.2 innings, -0.3 WAR.

Kyle Drabek: 5.86 ERA, 78..1 innings, -0.6 WAR.

Ricky Romero: 5.64 ERA, 146.2 innings, -0.6 WAR.

Please Alex, get us a starter. And give Stroman every chance to win the 5th spot.

Anyway, take a look at the ZiPS numbers and share what you find interesting.

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