More fun with z-scores, as the best and worst pitches of 2013 series rolls on. This week, we look at two-seam fastballs and sinkers.

As we wind down our First and Worst pitch of 2013 series, we return to the hard stuff, looking at two-seam fastballs and sinkers in unison. Given the similarities between the two pitches in terms of grip and behavior, I determined that merging the two and analyzing them together was a reasonable approach. As such, I will abbreviate the merged pitches as "TS."

For a quick recap, we will use FanGraphs data on two-seamer and sinker pitch type linear weights (TS/C) as well as average velocity (vTS), absolute horizontal movement (TS-X), and absolute vertical movement (TS-Z) data to create a z-score for each in order to compare the variables to one another. A summary score (SUM_z) will then be calculated to give a final, single value for measuring the value of a given pitcher's two-seamer/sinker. The 10% criteria will also be used, with only pitchers who threw the pitch at least 10% of the time being considered for our best/worst list. We will also break down our results by starters and relievers.

Thus far, we've figured out who has the best and worst changeups, curveballs, four-seam fastballs and sliders, and have also had a Fan Post looking at a similar approach in scoring pitch repertoires—let's now turn to the sinking fastballs, regardless of moniker:

Once again, we find the pitching staff of the Tampa Bay Rays atop one of our Best pitches lists, this time with old friend Jake McGee and First/Worst newcomer, David Price. Regarding the worst two-seamer/sinker offerings, we find a pair of pitchers who aren't known for having elite "stuff"; poster boy for crafty lefties Mark Buehrle brings up the rear for starting pitchers, with submariner Darren O'Day doing the same for the relievers. Both find ways to get hitters out with a variety of methods that deceive and offset hitter timing to counter below average velocity and repertoire, so their low ranking in this scoring system is not too surprising.

For those who are curious, here are the component scores for our quartet:

Overall, we find that Price and McGee score high with the velocities of their sinking fastballs, with McGee pacing our pitchers with respect to the amount of vertical movement, or sink, on his offering. Conversely, Price's two-seam/sinker pitch gives hitters fits in the horizontal dimension as well, as seen with his TS-Z_z score.

So we have an idea of how each pitchers' pitch fares compared to their cohorts with the above scores and breakdowns. How do their pitches fare when bat meets ball, with the caveat that a hallmark of the two-seam/sinker offering is its ability to induce groundballs and keep line drives at a minimum?

As with some of our previous first/worst research, we see some divergence between what one would expect results-wise from a pitch that our criteria finds to be sub-par and the actual results. Looking at Buehrle's batted ball stats, we find his two-seamer to be relatively easy to get around on, with the offering's batting average against and BABIP both above average. Yet, we still see a modicum of effectiveness from the pitch, with it generating a groundball a little over half the time. His line drive rate for the pitch does show some cause for concern, likely reflecting Buehrle missing his spots on occasion and leaving the pitch up in the zone.

Looking at his "worst" co-winner O'Day, we again see the disconnect, with his sinker making for an admirable showing in these stats, with very high groundball rates to go along with very low batted ball and line drive rates. As can be expected, O'Day's arm angle is at the crux of all this, as his unorthodox delivery allows him to throw a pitch that is relatively sub-par compared to his contemporaries, but is made effective because of his release point. This does come at a price: O'Day's low scoring with the linear weight variable is more than likely a result of having to face an occasional lefty hitter, which skews his numbers down due to his arm slot being negated when submariners face an opposite handed hitter. Despite these caveats for both, hitters still are finding a way to put the ball in play and create scoring opportunities, as their respective wOBAs reflect.

For our pair of Rays, there isn't much else to say about their offerings that hasn't been said; with his showing here and in our previous article discussing four-seam fastballs, it's easy to see why McGee leans so heavily on his heaters, regardless of the base/out situation. Price's "stuff" and talent doesn't really shine through as it pertains to his two-seamer batted ball stats, with some fairly human rates being seen against the pitch. Hitters do appear to be able to elevate the pitch, as his higher than expected line-drive rate can attest.

Overall, we find some similarities to our four-seam fastball results, which makes sense. With our worst winners, we do find an interesting aside in the form of both pitchers using unorthodox approaches to get hitters out to compensate for poor offerings across the board, with a tacit reliance upon team defense at play with their sinking fastballs.

***

All data courtesy of FanGraphs.

Stuart Wallace is an associate managing editor and writer at Beyond The Box Score. You can follow him on Twitter at @TClippardsSpecs.

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The Blue Jays 'State of the Franchise' is coming up on Wednesday January 29th. Media and season ticket holders can ask questions (presumably questions that have been cleared by the Jays' PR department)  of Paul Beeston, Alex Anthopoulos and John Gibbons.

My question would be:

First question for Paul Beeston at the 'state of the franchise': Are you still predicting 3 playoff run in the next 4 seasons?

— Bluebird Banter (@bluebirdbanter) January 23, 2014

What would you ask the Jays Powers-That-Be if you were given the opportunity?

It looks like Jack Morris is leaving the Blue Jays radio broadcast team for a similar job with the Twins.

Jack Morris moving from color man on #BlueJays radio to back to similar position for #Twins. Morris was w Twins radio 2005-11

— Eric Fisher (@EricFisherSBJ) January 24, 2014

No word from the Jays or Sportsnet on who will be replacing Jack as analyst. Since Dirk Hayhurst has left Sportsnet too, the most obvious replacement is gone.

Last we heard Morris was coming back, it is late in the off-season to be looking for a replacement, maybe Mike Wilner will get the job. He did a decent job filling in when Jack was in the TV booth.

Sorry to see Morris leave, I thought he did a pretty good job, and I didn't think I was going to like him. Very curious to see who they get to take over.

I'm surprised by the news, I wouldn't think working for the Twins would be a step up, since Morris worked a number of games on TV for the Jays, but maybe he's happier living in the states. Minnesota is closer to  home for him.

When the Blue Jays selected Todd Redmond off waivers in the last week of spring training in 2013, most of us thought that he would be a good addition to the Buffalo Bisons' starting staff. But an combination of injuries and ineffectiveness among the pitchers on Toronto's opening day roster meant that the club had to dig through their depth to find healthy arms. Although all these problems were bad for the Blue Jays and their fans, it created chances for pitchers like Neil Wagner and Todd Richmond to come up and pitch in the major leagues.

"There's always going to be injuries and people who go up-and-down. Luckily it created a spot for me and gave me an opportunity to show what I have up there," Redmond told Bluebird Banter in an interview, "you hate to see people get hurt--you really do--you don't want it to happen to anybody, but like any other sport someone will go down and someone will have to replace them. It's a bittersweet thing."

Redmond himself had a late start to the 2013 season, spending the first month-and-a-half on the Bisons' disabled list with a shoulder impingement injury. After just two appearances in triple-A, Redmond was recalled to the Jays before being sent back to the International League.

He ended up making 14 starts and three relief appearances for the Blue Jays, putting up a decent 4.32 ERA and 1.208 WHIP over 77 innings. Redmond's strongest weapon was the strikeout; averaging almost a strike out an inning (his 8.9 K/9 rate put him in second behind Josh Johnson among Blue Jays starters) while keeping his walk rate down. His best game of the season came on September 19, when he pitched into the eighth against the Yankees, striking out seven and allowing just one run on four hits. However, when he was tapped to pitch the Jays' final game of the season against the Rays (who were fighting for a playoff spot), Redmond was ineffective, giving up five runs and not being able to finish the first inning.

"I was a little up-and-down the whole season, but I finished up in the big leagues and that's what I hoped to do," Redmond said.

In order to avoid injury and to better prepare for the upcoming season, Redmond tells us that he has enrolled in Jamie Evans's "weighted-ball" program, joining Steve Delabar, Dustin McGowan, Brett Cecil, Sergio Santos, and other pitchers in the organization in the arm strengthening program. Redmond, who throws one of the slower fastballs in the majors (at 90.6 mph), might seem like a candidate who can benefit from the increased velocities that the can result from weighted-ball exercises, but he is primarily focused on arm health.

"It’s more just for health reasons, just to keep my arm healthy," Redmond explains, "it’s not so much for velocity—if I gain some, that’s great, I’m not going to complain about it."

The 28-year-old right hander, who planned on starting to throw off a mound this week, said that over the winter he has already started feeling a difference in his arm after completing the weighted-ball exercises. He said that his arm has loosened up, and that it feels better than it felt in 2013, but he doesn’t know yet how it will feel when he gets deep into games, especially later into the season.

"It’s tough to say until you get to that point," Redmond said, "once you’re built up as a starter you should be able to go six, seven innings. It shouldn’t matter whether you’re on the weighted-ball program or not on the weighted-ball program, your arm should be in shape to do that. It’s just hopefully you can last longer and later into the season—that’s where I think it helps."

The weekend links guy took much of the winter off (mostly because there wasn't much for him to link to.) As Tanaka-mania has swept into NYC, a tidal wave (relatively speaking) of unlinked links have popped up.

GRIFF STATES THE OBVIOUS

Kershaw’s record deal shouldn’t worry Blue Jays fans: Griffin | Toronto Star
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Alex Anthopoulos is now saying the Blue Jays five-year policy is merely a "guideline".

The Blue Jay Hunter: Enough with the Five-Year Policy
After missing out on Masahiro Tanaka, it's about time the Toronto Blue Jays got rid of their five year policy.

Blue Jays’ Triple-A skipper Gary Allenson offers scouting reports on three prospects | National Post
Minor-league managers rarely make headlines. In 19 years as a minor-league skipper, Gary Allenson followed that script – except for the night he climbed the outfield wall in Durham, N.C.

Toronto Blue Jays fans fidgety after club exits Masahiro Tanaka talks over contract length | National Post
The National Post’s source said the Jays never reached the stage where they discussed money with Tanaka’s agent

Despite quiet off-season, Anthopoulos still looking to upgrade Blue Jays - The Globe and Mail
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The Dallas Stars really brought out the big names on the American Airlines Center scoreboard during tonight's game against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Both Bieber and Rob Ford made appearances, though at least one Toronto fan showed her very special love for the crack-smoking mayor.

A-ROD HAS NO FRIENDS LINK

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The players spoke Jan. 13 after Rodriguez sued the union and Major League Baseball to overturn his suspension

MLB LINKS

The Orioles Play in the Shallow End of Free Agency | FanGraphs Baseball
For those howling about the Jays offseason... I would rather be the Jays at this point.

Where Closers Come From | FanGraphs Baseball
Not from a stork.

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Player agent Casey Close likes opt out clauses. Why do the teams agree to them?

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It's pretty clear that the odds of the Blue Jays landing a free agent pitcher are slowly approaching zero and the rotation of the team is a huge question mark going into Spring Training. This means that the solution to that question mark will likely be answered internally, but maybe the front office could think outside of the box to maximize the talent on their team. Last season Esmil Rogers was forced to become a starter and at times appeared to be a viable solution, while at other times he looked dreadful (one of the two games I saw live last year was an example of the aforementioned dreadfulness). With Rogers in mind, I was messing around on FanGraphs looking at Blue Jays relievers who might be able to translate their stuff into a starting role.

The pitchers who have the best chance at becoming successful starters are usually the ones who feature at least three pitches, making it harder for hitters to get a good idea of the pitcher's stuff after facing them three times in a game. The possible options for the Blue Jays team are likely Steve Delabar, Casey Janssen, Dustin McGowan and maybe former starter Brett Cecil.

Steve Delabar was a starter when he first entered pro ball with the San Diego Padres, but was put into the bullpen fairly early on in his career. With four pitches thrown over 10% of the time last year, he has the stuff to keep hitters on their toes three times through the lineup. In 2013, he was pretty valuable in the high-leverage role, but if he could bring his nasty splitter to the rotation his value would likely be even higher for the Blue Jays.

The obvious answer to the suggestion of putting the Blue Jays star closer in the starting rotation is NO NO NO. It's definitely a risky proposition, but Casey Janssen used to start many years ago and has the stuff to succeed in the rotation once again. The risk of sticking the team's closer in the rotation would be massive, but you never know if you could catch lightning in a bottle and solve the team's starter problem internally. A possible problem would be Janssen's velocity, which is already on the low side, being exposed to more innings possibly reducing the effectiveness of his pitch mix.

Dustin McGowan and Brett Cecil are both former starters for the Blue Jays who never really were able to stake their claim to a rotation spot, either due to injuries or poor performance. It's been rumoured that McGowan will be given a chance to grab a back-end rotation spot this spring so it will be interesting to see how that story unfolds. Cecil on the other hand had a breakout season in the bullpen last year and should probably not be tampered with. He never put it together as a starter for the Blue Jays and it might not be worth the risk of seeing if his newfound stuff will work out better in the rotation this time around.

With no news happening these days, it seems we're going to be stuck talking about topics like these until the start of spring training, but it's an interesting scenario to think about. Do any of you folks think a member of the Blue Jays bullpen could successfully transition to a starter role to fill one of the two holes in the rotation? Maybe it's a situation of not messing with a good thing, but the team had an outstanding bullpen last year and that didn't get the team very far did it?

Three years ago today the Blue Jays traded Mike Napoli for Frank Francisco.

I think it would be fair to say that we were perplexed:

Napoli hit 26 home runs in a pitchers ball park. How many could he hit at Rogers Centre? He can get on base. He can catch. As much as I'd rather we didn't take at bats away from JP, most teams wouldn't mind having a power bat so there would be a fall back for the rookie catcher. He can also play first, so he could back up Adam Lind or platoon with him and he could also DH. We do have other guys to do those things. Jose Molina can back up JP. EE can back up Lind and/or DH. Napoli likely would be a better choice than either of those two, but maybe not all that much better. Still he would have given the Jays some depth in spots where they are paper thin at the moment.

Yeah, I was totally wrong about not wanting him to take at bats away from JP, but other than that, I still don't see why we'd trade a power bat for a reliever.

Alex did try to explain it to us:

Alex said the team has liked Francisco for a long time and pursued him for a long time. They looked at him when he was a free agent, but when the Rangers offered arbitration, they decided they didn't want to give up their first round pick.

They had tried multiple different offers to the Rangers, over the last while. Having Napoli is what got the deal done.

They liked Francisco, in part, because he is good against LHB. Right now Purcey is the only lefty sure to make the pen. Carson is likely to make it as well. And Jo Jo Reyes has a chance because he has no options left.

Sorry Alex, I still don't understand.

Frank missed the first couple of weeks of the 2011 season with an injury, but moved into the closer's role by May. He blew 3 saves and had a lost to go with 5 save in the month, then lost the job to Jon Rauch, which didn't go much better. Frank pitched better as the season went on, putting up a 1.37 ERA in the second half of the season. Frank signed with the Mets as a free agent after the season and we drafted Matt Smoral in compensation for him. Matt had a 7.01 ERA for the Gulf Coast Jays last year in 25 innings.

Mike Napoli? Well you know, he's hit 77 home runs in the 3 seasons since the trade. Helped the Red Sox to the World Series last year and has been great.

Still don't understand the trade.

The next entry in the Fan Favorites series looks at a more recently revered role player.

Reed Johnson.

The name evokes thoughts of reckless abandon leading to diving catches and reckless judgement leading to his facial hair.

RJ was an academic All-American at baseball power Cal State Fullerton, leading to being selected in the 17th round of the 1999 draft by the Toronto Blue Jays. He debuted for Toronto in 2003 and has played parts of 11 MLB seasons (he's still a FA, hoping to catch on for another year). He played for the Cubs in two different stints ('08-'09, '11-'12).

My thought is Reed was a popular Cub for his ties to the last very good Cubs' team, the 2008 club that paced the National League with 97 wins (we shall not speak of the playoffs -- Reed didn't get an at-bat). Reed played great in a platoon role that season, putting up a .303/.358/.420 slash line.

As a Cub, Johnson hit 18 HRs and drove in 116 runs in 1009 at-bats over 361 games.

Reed was (is, really) a scrappy hustler who gets the most out of his abilities. So how does he stack up, sabermetrically (still a word!)?

Johnson put up 1.4 WAR in that 2008 season, but slipped to just 0.2 WAR in an injury-shortened 2009. In his second tour as a Cub, he was worth an even more efficient 1.2 WAR (less raw value than '08, but 266 plate appearances compared to 374) in 2011 and then nearly 1 WAR in just 186 PAs in 2012 before being dealt to the Atlanta Braves. His wRC+ was safely over 100 in three of his four seasons as a Cub.

Nobody would confuse Reed Johnson with a "star" player. But, it turns out RJ provided grit, energy, and solid value during his time with the Cubs. To win, a club needs some players to put up bigger WAR numbers. But it's always nice when your role players can provide above average performances at a good value.

While you were watching the Grammy Award show last night, our colleague from MLB Daily Dish Chris Coltillo reported that Ervin Santana was drawing interest from a bunch of teams not named the "Blue Jays". Cotillo heard, from "a source with direct knowledge of the situation" (Jay Alou perhaps?), that Santana has interest from as many as eight teams.

The high level of interest may be due to a reported slash in Santana's asking price. The right-handed pitcher was priced at $112 million before Christmas but didn't sell well, as all the shoppers were waiting to see how much that much-hyped Japanese import was going to cost. Masahiro Tanaka cost way more than anyone expected so the rich spoiled kid got him. By that time, the rollback on Santana had already begun, with his people stepping back to a $60 million figure. Then, just yesterday, it was revealed that the Canadian guys who live in Milwaukee were able to get Matt Garza for four years at just $50 million (that's $200,000 in Canadian Tire Money back if they pay by cash).

Another drop in asking price for Santana must be happening, no? Remember, not only does one need to fork over cash for him, one must also give up a (note: I ran out of shopping analogies right at this point) first-round draft pick in 2014. He might even have to agree to some team options at the end of his fourth year.

One of Cotillo's other sources, who I will out as Captain Obvious, said that the Blue Jays were the "most obvious fit" for Santana and that "the fans in Toronto will be very disappointed" if neither Santana nor Ubaldo Jimenez lands with the Jays in 2014. My source--callers on the Sportsnet Radio 590 the FAN--tells me that the fans in Toronto will be very disappointed unless Santana and Jimenez andStephen Drew were wearing a Blue Jays uniform. And maybe swap that damn complaining Jose Bautista for someone like Mike Trout. And fire Gibby.

Anyway, yes, it's true that the Blue Jays sure could use another starting pitcher, and remember that the savvy Alex Anthopoulos has an advantage over the other folks sniffing at Santana: the Blue Jays sucked so much last year they qualified for a special coupon that let them only give up a second-round pick if they signed Santana. However, they seem to think that they can wait it out and hope the price continues to fall as we near spring training.

So what number is Anthopoulos waiting for? Something like the $40 million over three years that Bob Dutton reported? Maybe the strategy is to wait for Santana's price to keep going down then take those numbers to the Jimenez camp? I have a hard time thinking that final figure for Santana would be as low as Dutton's report, but who knows? Certainly not me (nor too many people outside of 1 Blue Jays Way). It does appear that one of the Blue Jays' strategies this whole offseason was to take it easy and wait for prices to fall (I mean, Anthopoulos actually said that) so we'll see how long the Blue Jays will stay in this reverse auction and whether they will be able to pounce before some other team does.

Brett Lawrie hasn't quite had the season we've been expecting and yet, if you look at the 10 players on the 'Similar Batters through 23' list on his Baseball Prospectus page, you have a pretty good group:

1. Andy Carey

2. Fernando Tatis

3. Aramis Ramirez

4. Dale Murphy

5. Adam Jones

6. Jim Presley

7. Bill Melton

8. Roy Howell

9. Corey Patterson

10. Robin Ventura

Corey Patterson's name on the list worries me, but there are a number of good players on the list.

Brett does have to give us a season that gets us to stop talking about his potential. As fun as it is to watch him play defense, it would be nice if his bat could equal his glove. Maybe Kevin Seiter will find the answer.

For a lot of reasons, he's one of my favorite players to watch. The glove. How he goes hard down the line to first base on all ground balls. Going first to third. It would be nice if he would pick his moments, but he is an exciting player to watch.

Lawrie had a great August, hitting  .346/.397/.495 and we hoped he had figured it out, but then September wasn't great. He does have a hard time getting his timing down, and last year, with the injury during spring training and then wrecking his ankle on that awkward slide, most of his season seemed to be spent searching for the timing.

Bill James figures Brett to play 147 games, hit 16 home runs, with a .279/.338/.451 slash line.

Zips doesn't guess games, but figures 542 PA, 16 home runs, .266/.326/.436 with 3.3 WAR.

The poor guy seems to find injuries, so I'll guess 135 games, something like .280/.330/450 and 18 home runs, but I'll hold out hope that he has that breakout season.

Jason Parks and the Baseball Prospectus team released their Top 101 Prospects List this morning with three Blue Jays making the list. Right-handed pitchers Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, and Alberto Tirado found their way into the Top 101, which shows that the team still has a ton of pitching potential, but might lack any top quality position players in their farm system. Former Blue Jay prospect Noah Syndergaard, who was traded for R.A. Dickey, slotted in at #11, making him the fourth-highest pitcher on the list behind Taijuan Walker, Archie Bradley, and Kevin Gausman. The other part of the Dickey trade in catcher Travis d'Arnaud fell to #48 after being ranked #15 last season, making him the third-highest catcher in the minor leagues.

When the team-specific prospect lists came out in December, right-handed pitcher Marcus Stroman found himself at #1 so it's no surprise the Duke grad was the top Blue Jays on the overall list as well. Slotting in at #27, Stroman is the 13th highest right-handed pitcher on the list after not being ranked in the Top 101 at all last season and only being ranked #8 in the Blue Jay organization. As noted before, Jason Parks loves his slider and believes his height won't be a significant hurdle to clear on Marcus' way to success in the major leagues.

The second Blue Jay on the list is Aaron Sanchez who found himself very close to Stroman at #31. The tall right-hander is the 14th highest right-handed pitcher and will see his ranking skyrocket if he can come close to reaching his tremendous ceiling in 2014. Sanchez was ranked #32 last season, so his up-and-down 2013 seems to have made Parks and company skeptical of tinkering with their evaluations too much.

The third Toronto prospect on the list is 19-year-old right-hander Alberto Tirado. The Dominican was dominant in Bluefield this year and increased his team-specific ranking from #10 to #3. He is slotted in at #76 on the list and has a ton of room to grow if he can refine his command and control.

In a chat that recently finished up, Parks fielded some Blue Jays questions:

Kodi (Vermont ): How close was Dan Norris?

Jason Parks on the Top 101 Prospects: Should have been on the list. Late cut. I really like him.

Carl (Canada ): True or False. Tirado has the highest ceiling of the Jays arms.

Jason Parks on the Top 101 Prospects: I'm tempted to say true, but the Jays are absolutely lousy with high ceiling arms. You can make a case for several in the high ceiling category. But Tirado has a very good case for that distinction.

Justin (Asheville): What are some of the teams with the strongest group of players outside of the top 101?

Jason Parks on the Top 101 Prospects: Astros, Twins, Rangers, and Jays, just to name a few.

While a lot of the possible high-impact prospects in the Blue Jay system are in the lower levels, it's still exciting to see three players make the Top 101 List. If you forgot, last season only saw two Blue Jays on the list with Sanchez at #32 and Sean Nolin at #97 so at least a few of the arms in the system are starting to show some upside. What are your thoughts on the list as a whole and what are your feelings on the three Blue Jays who made it in the Top 101?

According to the BlueJays.com transactions page, the Blue Jays have signed seven international free agents from the Dominican Republic to minor league contracts last week. Remember that the Blue Jays acquired extra international bonus cap space by trading away Rule 5 pick Brian Moran to the Angels during the Winter Meetings. These signings may be souvenirs from Alex Anthopoulos's scouting trip down to eastern Hispaniola immediately following the General Manager Meetings back in November (remember them? nothing happened except for a dumb Jose Bautista-for-Dominic Brown rumour).

The players signed are listed below in alphabetical order. Because I don't know anything about them I'll tell you who they're not:

• RHP Jose Diaz, 21, from Santo Domingo. Not the Jose Diaz from San Pedro de Macoris who played briefly for the Royals and Rangers.
• RHP Luis Gomez, 21, from Santiago. Not the Luis Gomez who was the Blue Jays' starting shortstop in 1978.
• RHP Jeffry Martinez, 20, from Santo Domingo.
• OF Francisco Rodriguez, 19, from San Cristobal. Not K-Rod nor the other Francisco Rodriguez.
• RHP Luis Sanchez, 19, from Puerto Plata. Not the Luis Sanchez the Blue Jays had in their system in 2006-2010.
• SS Junior Vasquez, 18, from an unknown city. A switch-hitting shortstop who is just 5'8", 165.
• RHP Thony Vinicio, 19, from Santo Domingo.

Unlike the case where Adeiny Hechavarria was signed directly to a major league contract, I don't believe any one here is particularly high-profile, so for now they will start in one of the rookie affiliates and will have to make their slow climb up the organization.

The Blue Jays also inked minor league free agent LHP Erick Hurtado, 19, who signed with the Cardinals but has only pitched in seven games in the Dominican Summer League (rookie-level) for the Astros and Yankees organizations. Hurtado missed a bunch of time in 2012 because he was suspended for 50 games for testing positive for metabolites of stanozolol. I don't believe that he is related to former Blue Jays reliever Edwin Hurtado, who was from Venezuela. Ben Badler wrote a scouting report on Hurtado when he was still a free agent in the Dominican Republic:

Hurtado, who is from Santo Domingo, is 6-foot-3, 200 pounds and threw around 86-88 mph as July 2 approached last year, but more recently he's pitched in the high-80s and touched 90-91 mph. He's still raw as a pitcher but he shows some feel to spin a curveball.

So there, some moves.

The Indians will have to spend on pitching before too long, one way or another. Which way is best?

Two separate but not unrelated pieces of information, pertaining to the Indians and their starting rotation for 2014 and beyond:

1) Discussions of a multiyear extension for Justin Masterson have been tabled.

Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer reports,"It's believed those talks have gained little, if any, traction."An arbitration hearing between the two sides is scheduled for February 20th, and the focus now shifts to seeing if the two sides can agree on a contract figure for 2014 somewhere between the $11.8 million Masterson is asking for and the $8.05 million the Indians have offered.

2) The price for Ubaldo Jimenez may have dropped all the way below $40 million.

Jon Heyman was on MLB Tonight Monday night and said Jimenez is now seeking something like 3 years, $39 million, and that the Toronto Blue Jays might be the team to give that to him.

- - - - - -

Calling off conversations about a long-term deal for Masterson does not necessarily mean such a deal could not still be agreed upon before Masterson hits free agency at the end of the 2014 season, but it would seem to make such an outcome less likely.

The market for starting pitching is hard to define right now:

Masahiro Tanaka got 7 years, $155 million (and he can opt out after four years if he wants). That's one of the 20 richest MLB contracts ever handed out, all for a pitcher who's never thrown a Major League pitch. Those terms may have convinced Masterson's side that he's worth more than they originally thought. The Tribe front office, on the other hand, probably doesn't love seeing that kind of money getting handed out to pitchers.

Days later, Matt Garza, seen by most as the second-best pitcher out there, and expected by prominent sources to get something like 5 years, $85 million (I pegged him at 5 years, $75 million), instead settled for 4 years, $50 million (with a vesting option for $13 million in 2018). I don't know of anyone who predicted Tanaka would get more than $100 million more than Garza, but that's what happened.

If Masterson has a 2014 like his 2013, he'll be in higher demand than Garza was, and depending on what happens with extension talks for potential free agents Max Scherzer, James Shield, and Jon Lester, Masterson could find himself one of the two best arms available. If Masterson becomes a free agent, I think re-signing him will take more than the Indians will be will to pay. In short, I don't think Masterson pitches for the Indians beyond 2014.

The Indians should re-sign Jimenez instead.

In the same post linked to above, I predicted that Ubaldo would get 4 years, $56-60 million. That was too rich for my blood, in terms of what the Indians should be willing to offer him, given their payroll, but if Heyman's report is true, and he can now be had on just a 3-year deal, for no more than $13 million a year, the Indians should go for it.

The scary thing about long-term deals isn't really the annual salary, it's the years (especially for pitchers). I think Masterson will get a 5-year deal at some point, and I'd be very uneasy about such a long commitment, even for a pitcher who has consistently thrown ~200 innings. I think Jimenez is riskier in a given season, but I'd rather be locked in to him for 3 years, than Masterson for 5.

More importantly, while either scenario means the Indians have a pitcher signed for big money in 2015 and 2016, only re-signing Jimenez means the Indians have both of them at the same time again.The Indians are coming off 92 wins and their first playoff appearance in six years. Fans took note of the team as the season went on, leading to strong TV and radio ratings and a packed house for the Wild Card Game. The Indians look like they can contend again in 2014, but are probably a little short of a return trip to the postseason.

Jeff Sullivan at FanGraphs ran through some numbers to see how much signing Jimenez (or Ervin Santana) would be likely to help each MLB team (based largely on the projected fifth starter they'd be replacing). The Indians come out with an additional 2.0 wins, more than almost every other team in baseball. The Indians are right at the point on the win curve where two extra wins are especially valuable, because unlike a team likely to go from 68 to 70 wins (missing the playoffs either way), or from 95 to 97 wins (making the playoffs either way), the Indians could be going form 87 to 89 wins, and there's a good chance that's the difference between making the playoffs and missing them.

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Former Blue Jays' first baseman Lyle Overbay turns 37 today.

Lyle came up to the majors with the Diamondbacks, he played a handful of games in 2001 and 2002 before making the Diamondbacks out of spring training in 2003, after being listed as Baseball America's  65th best prospect. He didn't do great and was sent back to the minors after playing in 86 games. In December of 2003 he was sent to the Brewers as part of a 10 player trade. The big name, going to the Diamondbacks, was slugger Richie Sexson, but Sexson only played 21 games for them, in an injury filled 2004.

Overbay played two seasons for the Brewers before being traded to the Jays with Ty Taubenheim for Dave Bush, Gabe Gross and Zach Jackson. Bush won 46 games (while losing 53) over 5 seasons, Gross played a bit hitting .251/.357/.440 in parts of 3 seasons and Jackson pitched 42 innings, for the Brewers, so the trade could be counted as slightly to the win side for J.P. Riccairdi. And, considering Eric Hinske played first for us in 2005, Lyle was a step up at the position.

The trade was the subject of the second post ever on Bluebird Banter. Marc Normandin liked the trade:

He's a great defensive first basemen, one of the best in the league. He hits well for a first basemen, although he lacks home run power. He makes up for it with doubles though, and his plate patience is good. Acquiring Overbay most likely means that Shea Hillenbrand or Eric Hinske is on their way out of Toronto. The good news? The Jays may actually get a useful part in exchange for one of them, which would be a plus.

Lyle had a pretty good first season for us, he hit .312/.372/.508 with 22 home runs and 92 RBI in 157 games in 2006. He set his career high for home runs, RBI and batting average, as well as finishing 4th in the AL in doubles with 46.

After the season J.P. signed Lyle to a 4-year, $24 million contract. The contract didn't help make him a favorite with Jays fans. mark w had mixed feelings about the signing, at the time, in his BBB post about it:

My views are on this signing are rather mixed. At first glance, it appears to be a thrifty signing, as the Blue Jays lock up a somewhat gifted hitter at a relatively cheap price. On the other hand, however, couldn't the Blue Jays have waited another season, thus hedging their bets? I can't imagine that Overbay's value will skyrocket at this point of his career, especially considering he's a likely candidate to "age quickly" -- at least based on the career trends of statistically similar players from the past. In the end, I don't think this contract will come back to bite them, if only because of its low cost to the organization. And Overbay appears to be a safe bet for at least the next 2-3 years.

Well, it did come back to bite them.

2007 wasn't a good a year for Lyle. He missed more than a month with a broken hand, after being hit by a John Danks pitch June 3. He was hitting .256/.332/.464 when he was hit, but finished the season .240/.315/.391 with 10 home runs and 44 RBI. It's pretty had to hit ball when your hand is hurting. He did manage to hit 30 doubles. Lyle had a big reverse split, that year, having a .794 OPS vs. LHP but just .676 against RHP.

Lyle bounced back a little, in 2008, hitting .270/.358/.419 with 15 homers, 32 doubles and 69 RBI in 158 games. He set a team record for getting on base 12 straight times at the end of May. Unfortunately, he couldn't hit lefties at all, batting just .215/.385/.255 against them. It was the start of a bad trend, before 2008 he was able to hit lefties, at least not to badly, after, he couldn't.

Overbay had a pretty good 2009, hitting .265/.372/.466 with 16 home runs (including his first walkoff homer against the A's in April), 35 doubles and 64 RBI in 132 games. Fangraphs credited him with a 2.4 WAR, the best in his time with the Jays. They liked his fielding much better than back in 2006. He hit just .190/.256/.278 against left-handers (his platoon partner was Kevin Millar, who didn't hit lefties all that much better that year).

2010 was Lyle's last year with the Jays, and it wasn't very good, he hit .243/.329/.433, with 20 home runs (the second most, in a season, in his career), 37 doubles (his 7th consecutive season with 30 doubles) and 67 RBI. He played in 154 games, Cito wouldn't platoon him as he was a free agent after the season. On defence, he lead AL first basemen in double plays (150) and assists (101). Lyle had the 1000th of his career hit at the end of June.

Since leaving the Jays, Lyle has bounced around, playing for the Pirates, Diamondback, Braves and, last year, the Yankees. He recently signed a minor league contract with the Brewers.

Happy Birthday Lyle. Even though your time with the Jays wasn't a huge success, but I still liked you. I do wonder how much better his offensive numbers would have been if he hadn't broken his hand.

It is also Bob File's birthday, he's also 37. Bob came up as a reliever with the Jays and had a very good rookie season, in 2001, putting up a 3.27 ERA in 60 relief appearances, 74.1 innings, but there was some luck involved. He only struck out 38 and walked 29. The .233 BABIP wasn't something that was repeatable. Over the next two seasons he pitched 37 innings, with a 6.08 ERA and that was the end of his major league career.

Happy birthday Bob, hope it is a good one.

The farm isn't so bad, right? RIGHT?

We all know the Yankees farm system isn't really that great. There are some interesting players, but no one that's a "can't miss" or clearly a future All-Star in the making. Gary Sanchez is the only Yankee prospect who made the top 100 prospects according to both MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus. Mason Williams at least made MLB's list as well. Still, they seemingly don't have a top 50 prospect in the system.

So far the consensus seems to be that the Yankee farm system is among the worst in baseball, it's just a matter of how bad. Jason Parks of BP has previously described the system as "Gary Sanchez and a list of interchangeable prospects with reliever profiles or bench futures." In a recent chat, Parks even made it known that he believed the Yankees had one of the worst systems in baseball.

Maybe this is true, but at least they have potentially useful players in relievers and bench players; some systems don't even have those.

Keith Law of ESPN disagrees, kind of. He doesn't think they're one of the worst, but he does place them among the bottom third in the league, ranking them 20th overall. Top of the bottom third, though!

It seemed like everyone who mattered in this system got hurt in 2013, and of those who didn't most had disappointing years. The good news is every one of the injured prospects should be healthy to start 2014 (except Slade Heathcott, for whom "healthy" is an abstract concept), but it also means the Mason Williamses and Tyler Austins of the system will run out of excuses if they don't hit.

A strong day one draft class in 2013 -- when they had three of the top 33 picks -- helped boost the system.

That isn't so bad. If a lot of things go right for the Yankees in 2014; if Mason and Slade and Austin are all healthy and productive, if Sanchez improves, if the 2013 draft class impresses in their first full year of pro ball, maybe the system won't be so bad. Still, that's asking for a lot to break in the right direction.

Thankfully, the Yankees aren't even the worst in the AL East as both the Blue Jays and the prospect guru Rays sit behind them, so at least New York is beating their direct opponents in something. With the Rays now winning more and getting lower draft picks it's becoming clearer that they aren't as good at developing players as people wanted you to believe. They just have to trade David Price if they want to move back up to the top.

I know we all want a super prospect like Wil Myers or Jose Fernandez, but all we really need are useful players who can help fill in at the major league level. If we're patient, maybe we'll have the next Brett Gardner or David Robertson soon and those kinds of players are important too. The important thing is that they're going in the right direction. Hang in there.

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So one day after Baseball Prospectus prospect guy Jason Parks says this:

Justin (Asheville): What are some of the teams with the strongest group of players outside of the top 101?

Jason Parks on the Top 101 Prospects: Astros, Twins, Rangers, and Jays, just to name a few.

Keith Law, over at ESPN (subscription required), ranks the Blue Jays farm system 24th in the MLB, telling us this:

It's tough to trade away three top 100 prospects, as the Jays did last winter, and maintain a strong system, but the Jays compounded that problem by failing to sign their first overall pick (Phil Bickford) for the second time in three years.

The Jays can afford to trade prospects if they're hitting on high draft picks, but they haven't done so often enough other than the selections they ended up dealing.

I'm with him on the idea that we have to start signing our first round picks. I guess that we have been signing the compensation pick, that we've been given for not signing the previous first rounder, makes it a little less of a sin. Still, we gotta start signing the guys we draft.

But, I do think out farm system is better than Law says. We do have a lot of power arms, especially in the lower minors (Sanchez, Stroman, Norris, Tirado, Osuna) and some decent batting prospects (Nay, Davis, Barreto)

Quoting John Sickels:

2014 will be very, very interesting for this organization, as this wave of live arms and tools faces sterner tests in full-season ball. Which players develop the skills to make the tools work? A year from now, you could be looking at a system filled with Grade B or better prospects, or you could be looking at a bunch of disappointments. It will probably be somewhere in between of course.

I'd like to hope some guys step up this season, but then there is the possibility that we ship off a bunch more prospects for starting pitching sometime between now and mid-season and end up even lower on the lists.

Rumblings in Toronto today are focusing in on the possibility of the Toronto Argonauts being sold to either Larry Tanenbaum or the company he is the chairman of, Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment. I'm sure a lot of people couldn't care less about who owns the Argonauts, but more importantly the team may be on its way out of the Rogers Centre even faster than we expected. In September we learned that the Argos were informed their lease was not going to be renewed after the 2017 season, meaning that 2018 was likely the year that Blue Jays fans would get to watch grass grow in the Rogers Centre. To recap what Paul Beeston had to say in September:

The length of the deal allows the Argonauts a reasonable period of time to pursue other stadium options while allowing us sufficient time to plan the logistics of various stadium improvements including the installation of a grass playing surface for baseball at Rogers Centre.

There's more to the story though:

The Rogers Centre has extended a lease agreement with the Canadian Football League's Toronto Argonauts through December 31st, 2017, and has notified them that this will be the Argos' final lease in the stadium--no further renewals will happen after that date. While the Rogers Centre cannot kick out the football club before that, the Argos have an option to vacate the premises prior to 2017.

As well, having the Argos as a second tenant at BMO Field could help MLSE's drive to secure investment from government to redevelop the stadium, which is a publicly-owned facility operated by MLSE exclusively for soccer at this time.

The incentive for the possible new owners to get some leverage to renovate BMO Field is great news for the Blue Jays as the process of getting grass into the Rogers Centre may be sped up by a year.

So there is still a hope that the Blue Jays might be after Stephen Drew.  Jon Heyman, in a MLB.com video, tells us "Toronto is a team in the mix, I think" on Drew. I love the 'I think' qualifier on the end of that. And yes, Drew is a Boras client, but I don't think that is as much an issue as we get closer to the start of spring training.

Heyman also listed the Red Sox, Yankees and Mets as a possible employer for the guy, with the Sox as the favorite.I really would like us to look for someone better at second base.

Then he said the Jays are interested in Kendrys Morales and then said the Jays would have to trade "Leaned" (I'm taking it that he meant Lind. I very much doubt that one.

And, of course, he continues to say that the Jays are likely to get Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez. He figures that Jimenez would sign for 3 years and $39 million. I'd go for that if I was Alex.

I really don't expect the Jays to make that many moves this late in the off-season, but we really do need a starter and a second baseman that could hit some wouldn't hurt either.

After mulling retirement, Burnett plans to pitch again in 2014.

A.J. Burnett has decided to return for the 2014 season after flirting with the possibility of retirement this offseason, according to Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Most noteworthy, Burnett is open to playing for a team other than the Pittsburgh Pirates, his club in 2013. Earlier this winter, reports surfaced that Burnett was mulling retirement and would only consider coming back to play for Pittsburgh.

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Now that this is no longer the case, Burnett will surely have many suitors. He finished his 2013 campaign with a 3.30 ERA and 209 strikeouts in 191 innings pitched. It was Burnett's second straight solid season after moving to the Pirates from the Yankees, and despite the fact he is 37 years old, the right-hander will attract attention from a number of teams still looking for starting pitching.

In many ways, Burnett will be a more attractive option for MLB teams than other top starters like Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez because he likely won't be looking for a multi-year commitment and also doesn't have any draft pick compensation attached to him. The Pirates chose not to extend the 15-year veteran a qualifying offer, as they thought he would choose to either retire or return to Pittsburgh.

Since Burnett lives in the Baltimore area, some speculation arose that the Orioles might look to pursue him, and there is no doubt Burnett would be a huge upgrade to the team's staff. Baltimore's rotation was among the worst in the AL last season, finishing with a 4.20 ERA, the sixth-highest in the league. Burnett would represent the type of top arm the Orioles desperately need to compete in the AL East, and given his relative affordability compared with other notable free agent starters, he could be a good fit.

Other teams in the mix for Burnett include the Pirates, who have expressed an interest in bringing him back, and squads like the Blue Jays or even the Angels, who could use an upgrade in their rotation.

Burnett's durability (he has thrown at least 185 innings dating back to 2008) and recent track record make him an intriguing free agent option. And with teams still searching for quality starters, there is little doubt that Burnett will be receiving interest from a number of franchises in the days ahead.

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The 'State of the Franchise' will be live streamed on BlueJays.com (no word yet on whether there will be a 'viewer's digression' warning at the start). If you are watching, join us here to share your disbelieve at the answers coming from Alex and Paul.

I'm not expecting the love in we had last year to happen again. I'm frustrated with the off-season, I'm sure I'm not the only one. I imagine that Buck will do his full most of the question and answer time with his own inane comments. Minor Leaguer and Nick are going to be there to represent Bluebird Banter.