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Community Projection: Brandon Morrow

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Brandon Morrow has always been favorite of mine and I thought 2013 would be the season that it all came together for him. It didn't work out that way.

Sometimes, life isn't fair. Injuries have wreck a lot players' careers. I'm still hopeful things will work out for Brandon but he's 29 now,  he's going to have to have that season that stops people talking about the injuries.

I hate when analysts try to tell us that a player's injury isn't all that bad, that 'if they were tough' they'd play through it. I think unless the person speaking is a doctor and has some knowledge of the injury, he shouldn't be trying to decide what someone else should try to pitch through.

Anyways, the particular injury was a weird thing that you don't see very often, and, with any luck at all, there should be no lingering effects this season, but then, who really knows.

Brandon's numbers as a Blue Jay:

YearAgeTmWLERAGGSCGIPHERHRBBSOERA+H/9HR/9BB/9SO/9SO/BB
201025TOR1074.4926261146.1136731166178938.40.74.110.92.70
201126TOR11114.7230300179.1162942169203908.11.13.510.22.94
201227TOR1072.9621213124.2984112411081437.10.93.07.82.63
201328TOR235.631010054.163341218427310.42.03.07.02.33
7 Yrs41404.222181024702.1621329793227351018.01.04.19.42.28
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/5/2014.

Pretty tough to guess what will happen next year. Zips has him making 23 starts, 125.2 innings, 137 strikeouts, 3.89 ERA and a 2.2 WAR. Bill James has him making making 26 starts, 3.60 ERA, with 144 strikeouts and 145 innings.

I'm hoping James is closer on the starts. I'll say 25 starts, 140 innings, and a 3.80 ERA.

Give us your guess.


New Blue Jays batting practice cap just as horrible as expected

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I guess I am on the turf, uniform number, cap, and pizza beat this offseason.

On Wednesday afternoon New Era, the official cap supplier for Major League Baseball, unveiled a brand new alternate batting practice cap for the Toronto Blue Jays. The cap, from their "Diamond Era" line, is all red from the panels to the brim to the button, except for a white outline of a stylized maple leaf in front and the Blue Jays and MLB logos in the back. It is unclear whether the red inside the leaf outline is actually a patch of red fabric, or just the red base. Seven other teams (the Braves, White Sox, Pirates, Padres, Rangers, Cubs, and Mets) will be receiving new caps, as detailed on Sportslogos.net.

The red alternate is meant to add to the collection of field caps, to be used in conjunction with the blue alternate and the regular cap.

The Blue Jays’ new alternate cap is very similar to the current alternate—which was used for batting practice, spring training, and select games during the 2013 regular season—except it has a red base instead of blue. Major League Baseball was the one who proposed the maple leaf cap design to the Blue Jays in 2013, but the Blue Jays demanded that their branding be included somewhere in the cap, so they compromised by adding their logo to the back, just above the MLB silhouette.

New_bp_cap_medium

Images from New Era

I am not a fan of the maple leaf design primarily because the team that will wear it is called the Toronto Blue Jays not the Canada Red Maple Leaves—at least the blue alternate has the team’s main colour as the base. Yes, the Blue Jays are Canada’s sole remaining major league club, but they are not Team Canada; the cap is just not appropriate for the team. There is literally no Toronto or Blue or Jays in the front of the cap. I love Canada and am as patriotic as the next guy, but please stop shoving the maple leaf in my face. If the idea is to do something that does not have the Blue Jays’ current logo in the front, why not use a stylized of the Toronto city flag? More importantly, why not red pandas?

My hope is that the red caps will only be worn on Canada Day, with a red jersey, and the annual spring training exhibition game against the Canadian national team. The all-red cap would look horrible with the Blue Jays jerseys.

Of course, my views don’t represent the general fan base and just by walking around Toronto I can see how popular the blue alternates are. I know this new cap will be very popular and sell well, so the maple leaf motif will be here to stay until the next redesign. (The good news is that batting practice caps have been changed every three years or so.) Also, I would like to state that the Blue Jays had a 2-1 won-loss record when wearing their maple leaf alternates in 2013, another reason to keep them (and burn the grey away uniforms!).

If the maple leaf design was a must, one thing the designers could’ve done to make the new cap a little better was to have a blue brim instead as a nod to the Blue Jays’ first specialized batting practice cap which was introduced in the late 1990s. Not only will it be a subtle (ok, very subtle) reference to its progenitor, it would also incorporate blue back into the design, which is what the whole recent Blue Jays re-branding was about, no?

One good thing that may come from this cap is the possible demise of the even horrible-er "Stars and Stripes" caps that are worn for Memorial Day and Independence Day. Also, just like last year's announcement, we can say, "at least they're not like the Braves."

Poll
How do you feel about the new cap?

  125 votes |Results

Blue Jays sign pitcher Hansel Rodriguez from the Dominican

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It isn't the big free agent pitcher signing we've been waiting for but the Blue Jays made an international signing, getting pitchers Hansel Rodriguez, from the Dominican Republic, for $300,000.

Baseball America says this about him (and if you hit that link there is some video of him throwing.

Rodriguez, 16, is around 6-foot-2, 180 pounds with a fastball that sits in the low-90s and touches 95. Rodriguez also throws an above-average curveball, which had made him one of the top arms available in Latin America after going unsigned last year on July 2. Rodriguez, who turns 17 on Feb. 27, trained with Felix Taveras.

Can you imagine a 16 year old that can throw 95 and good curve too?

The Jays got some extra international money by picking Brian Moran in the Rule-5 draft and then flipping him to the Angels in return for some of those international dollars.

Alex has been signing a lot of good international players, It will take a few years for them to work their way through our system.

Would You Rather: 2014 Blue Jays Edition

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Something has to happen soon right? At this rate there's going to be some decisions that boil down to choosing the lesser of two evils in this upcoming season for the Blue Jays, especially if no other players are added to the team. It's time to decide which choices you'd like to see made!

Would you rather have Ryan Goins or Maicer Izturis start the majority of games at second base?

Unless Stephen Drew signs with the Blue Jays, the team is going to be starting either Goins or Izturis at the '4' spot and there's a chance it's doesn't end up going too well. Personally the choice is easy, Goins is young and will be with Toronto for a long time if things go according to plan. There's the obvious need for a suitable platoon if he continues to struggle with left-handed pitching, but I'd rather he sees the most playing time in 2014.

Would you rather have A.J. Jimenez or Josh Thole/Erik Kratz as the second catcher on the roster by mid-summer?

Eventually A.J. Jimenez is going to be healthy enough to make his big league debut in 2014. It may come in September, but it may also be an option that comes up sometime during the summer months. The big issue is having someone who can catch R.A. Dickey, but you'd have to think that with two solid defensive catchers in Jimenez and Dioner Navarro, one of them could manage the knuckleball after a fair amount of practice time during Spring Training. If Navarro is struggling during the summer and Jimenez is producing and staying healthy in Buffalo, then I'd rather he was called up and received the majority of playing time behind the plate. Eventually the team is going to have to decide whether he is the catcher of the future and the team wouldn't be missing much if Navarro was shifted to a back-up role.

Would you rather break camp with four bench players or eight relievers?

Thanks to MjwW's handy options guide from earlier this offseason we can see that there's a ton of Blue Jays pitchers who are at risk of being lost if they don't break camp with the big league team at the end of March. Included in this list are Jeremy Jeffress, Luis Perez, Todd Remond, and Esmil Rogers, who all run the risk of being claimed by another team if they don't make the 25-man roster. In terms of bench players, Moises Sierra is out of options so the team also runs the risk of losing the outfielder/first baseman if he is sent down to Buffalo to start the season. I don't have an answer for this one right now and I think I'd just rather wait and see what happens between now and the end of Spring Training. It's likely a few of the pitchers are hurt and the whole bullpen situation sorts itself out, considering they are the Blue Jays after all.

Would you rather start the clock on Marcus Stroman or wait until July to call him up?

Pretty straight forward options here, either have Marcus Stroman break camp with Toronto with the assumption that he stays on the 25-man roster all year or wait until July to call him up, avoiding all the service time and super-two issues. I don't think it's worth it to think of the financial implications of an early debut if there is a clear need on the team for Stroman and it sounds from various interviews that Alex Anthopoulos agrees. Mind you, if the team has a solid rotation with no immediate need for the Duke product, then it seems wise to hold Stroman down in Buffalo until the super-two cutoff to avoid having four arbitration years instead of the normal three.

What would you folks prefer?

This Day in Marlins History: Al Leiter traded

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Sixteen years ago, the Marlins traded Al Leiter to the New York Mets for three prospects.

On February 6, 1998, the Marlins fire sale after the 1997 championship continued. On that date, the Marlins traded World Series Game 7 starter, Al Leiter, to the New York Mets in exchange for prospects RHP A.J. Burnett, LHP Jesus Sanchez, and OF Rob Stratton. The trade also involved the Marlins giving utility 2B, Ralph Milliard.

At the time of the trade, the Mets were starting to take advantage of their big market status over small market teams such as the Marlins. Leiter was a piece that they looked to as a front-line starting pitcher. They had no problem trading three quality prospects for Leiter.

On the Marlins end, they were cleaning house to build an economically friendly roster that they were preparing to sell. The low price and being able to add three respected prospects made the Marlins very comfortable with the trade.

This was a trade that ended up helping both teams at different times. The Mets benefitted right away, while the Marlins benefitted later on, but with marginal contributions.

Al Leiter

With Al Leiter, the Mets got immediate returns. In 1998, he had a dominant season and finished sixth in Cy Young Award voting. Leiter would have many quality years with the Mets leading them to contention and the playoffs. He eventually helped lead the pitching staff to the 2000 World Series, the fourth trip to the World Series in Leiter's career. However, after winning his three previous trips with the Blue Jays (1992 and 1993) and Marlins (1997), Leiter and the Mets loss to the mighty Yankees, who ended up winning their third straight championship.

As for Leiter's career, he would return to the Marlins again in 2005. At age 39, Leiter struggled and would be sent to the Yankees for future considerations rather than the Marlins giving him his outright release. Leiter would retire after that season. He ended up with a quality MLB career that included four trips to the World Series with three different teams, while winning three in total. He was an All Star and candidate for the Cy Young Award. He also pitched the first no-hitter in Marlins history.

Leiter currently is a color commentator for the YES Network and is also a studio analyst for MLB Network.

Ralph Milliard

With Ralph Milliard, the Mets were hoping to get a young, serviceable utility player. Instead, Milliard would only have one at-bat and plate-appearance in 10 games for the Mets. He would never play in MLB again after his brief time with the Mets. He would go on to be a Minor League journeyman infielder through a few organizations. He also played in the Dutch Major Leagues. Milliard's career in MLB ended totaling 114 plate-appearances, 93 at-bats, 0 homeruns, 3 RBI, 12 runs, 3 stolen bases, .172 batting average, and .503 OPS.

Milliard is currently coaching.

A.J. Burnett

With A.J. Burnett, the Marlins were getting one of the best young arms among MLB prospects. The Marlins would bring him along slowly as they envisioned Burnett combining with two other young arms that were added a year later in Josh Beckett (1999 draft) and Brad Penny (trade with Diamondbacks). Once ready to go, and healthy, it didn't take Burnett long to show his talents. He eventually became the Marlins ace as they were improving each season after the fire sale that resulted in the horrible 1998 season. He also threw the Marlins third no-hitter in team history - an odd performance that saw Burnett walk nine.

Burnett was expected to continue as the ace of the young staff heading into 2003, but he injured his arm after four starts and needed Tommy John Surgery. While he did receive a ring for the 2003 championship, he was relegated to rooting his teammates on from the Injured Reserve List. He would finally come back in 2004. He was back in form to resume his career. As he entered 2005, he was primed to help lead the Marlins staff with Josh Beckett and Dontrelle Willis, along with the returning Leiter, on what was expected to be a great season for the team and the Marlins. However, the season did not work out as promisingly as hoped for the Marlins or Burnett. After a good start, Burnett started to struggle as the Marlins disappointed. Eventually, in-house problems started to stir with Burnett and others. As a result of some critical comments about the team, Burnett was removed from the team prior to the end of the season. He was replaced in what was expected to be his final start by a new young arm, Josh Johnson. Being a contract year, it ended up being Burnett's last season with the Marlins as they didn't even offer him a contract out of courtesy.

The thoughts of the results of Burnett's time with the Marlins can be mixed in opinion. He was a solid pitcher, but he was also injured and had the moments where he was a little too outspoken with emotions when considering 2005 and also in 2003 when he blamed his then-manager, Jeff Torborg, for Burnett's injury due to overuse.

Overall, Burnett has had a quality career, as he has won in double figures a total of 11 times. He's pitched over 200 innings fives times. He's struck out 200 batters three times and approached that total a few more times. Burnett has also won a second World Series ring in 2009 with the Yankees, but, unlike 2003, Burnett was able to pitch in that championship run. He currently is a free agent weighing his options.

Jesus Sanchez

With Jesus Sanchez, the Marlins received an MLB-ready starting pitcher. Sanchez was the first of the newly acquired prospects to play in MLB for the Marlins. He immediately filled a role for the Marlins as he was a starter in 1998, throwing 173 innings that season as a rookie. After some struggles as a starter in 1999, he would end up in the bullpen, but still appear in many games out of the bullpen and for an occasional start. He was back in the role of a starter in 2000, as he would make 32 starts and throw 182 innings.

At the time, Sanchez seemed like a promising back-end starter, but would start having arm problems and pitching struggles. He would go on to only pitch sparingly for a total of seven seasons at the MLB level. He ended his career in 2004, at age 29, but he attempted a comeback in an independent league from 2010 through 2012 before retiring for what seems to be the final time.

Rob Stratton

With Rob Stratton, the Marlins were getting a former first round pick from the 1996 June Draft that they hoped to would sort out his struggles and start living up to his potential. It never happened and Stratton ended up spending 11 years as a journeyman minor league outfielder with several organizations. In his minor league career, while Stratton showed power potential as he hit over 20 homeruns eight times, he struggled in other aspects of his hitting as he batted .243 with a .320 OBP in his career and surpassed the 200 strikeout mark twice and struck out 36% of the time that he stepped up to the plate mostly against AAA pitching. Stratton's last season was in 2006.

He has since gotten involved with coaching.

While there can be many thoughts about the fire sale after the 1997 season, on this day, we can remember as it continued with the Marlins trading Al Leiter, sixteen years ago in Marlins history.

Why is Ervin Santana still available?

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A variety of factors could be contributing to his delayed signing.

Entering the offseason, Ervin Santana was widely regarded as one of the best free agents available this winter, with many pundits, including Keith Lawand Tim Dierkes, placing him among the top six or seven best players on the market. Now, just a day away from the first pitchers and catchers reporting, why hasn't Santana signed?

Let's start with the financial aspects. First off, you have the roadblock that is draft pick compensation. With the most recent CBA putting a spending cap on team's draft bonus pools, draft picks have become more valuable than ever, mostly due to the tremendous financial flexibility a high draft pick (like the first- or second-rounder most teams would have to give up) allows the drafting team. A lot of teams just aren't inclined to give up their picks. This is true for pitching-needy squads like the Angelsand Rockies, who could sorely use a top-flight rotation arm, but are adamantly against surrendering their 2014 first-round pick to get one.

Santana's contract demands have also reportedly been on the more outrageous side. He was supposedly seeking a nine-figure deal earlier this offseason, and though that number has significantly dropped, the initial price may have scared a number of teams off. His most recent asking price has been pegged at $60 million over four years, and even that may be a stretch.

The fact that Matt Garza, who has been much more consistent and may be the better pitcher in general, got $52 million suggests how the market is valuing pitchers of similar stature to Santana's. Plus, it's very possible that teams could seek a slight discount just based on the draft-pick compensation. With Santana's price tag and compensatory penalty, many teams were automatically thrown out of the running for Santana, leaving a thin crop of potential suitors.

One team that seems to be a fit for Santana is the Toronto Blue Jays. With a large market and payroll, and a willingness to give up a draft pick, the Blue Jays seem to be an ideal fit, especially considering that they are hoping to contend with a rotation that includes J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek, and Brandon Morrow. Toronto has been the only team consistently linked to Santana, and it has been widely reported that they appear set on signing either Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez.

Of course that brings up a whole different matter: his market competition.

The lack of play on the Santana market could be directly linked to the months-long Masahiro Tanaka sweepstakes that took hold of the offseason. With Tanaka being the superior pitcher in nearly every team's eyes, it was a waiting game to see where he would end up, and that pretty much froze the starting pitching market.

Additionally, while Tanaka-captivation was at its peak, Garza appeared to be the only other name who saw significant market activity, and that was almost surely due to his lack of draft pick compensation and cheaper price-tag, since one's tolerance for sacrificing a draft pick would obviously be lower on a team that had the Japanese ace in the fold.

That still leaves Ubaldo Jimenez, who is under roughly the same handicaps as Santana. He too is coming off a notable bounceback year after a horrid 2012 campaign, and is tied to draft pick compensation. However, Jimenez seems to be the better bet. He's a year younger and at his best can be dominant, whereas Santana's upside is a tad more limited. Jimenez is also often seen as having the better pure stuff, and out-pitched Santana in 2013 in many ways, including strikeout rate (9.6 vs. 6.9), home-run rate (0.8  vs. 1.1), and FIP (3.43 to 3.93). As a result, Santana may have to wait for Jimenez in order to sign.

Of course, there's also the possibility that the hold-up is with the player himself. The fact of the matter is that Santana is a risky proposition, just a year removed from posting a 5.63 FIP in 178 innings with the Angels. He really hasn't been more than a No. 3 starter since 2008 and is seeking No. 2 starter money. His velocity did jump back up slightly, adding more than half a mile-per-hour in 2013 (91.7 to 92.3), but that was still the lowest average velocity of his career, 2012 aside.

Santana has also never been truly consistent, best evidenced by the graph below:

3200_p_season_full_0_20130930_medium

He has largely alternated between good and bad seasons. His ERA+ season by season since 2005: 91, 106, 79, 127, 87, 102, 111, 74, and 127. He's also posted a negative WAR in three separate seasons, each of which were sandwiched by 3-plus WAR seasons. You really just don't know what you're going to get with Santana, and that may be the deciding factor on him still being available.

Santana should be coming off the market in the coming weeks, but it's still perplexing that he and other big name free agents (such as Jimenez, Kendrys Morales, and Nelson Cruz) are still jobless. Still, some bizarre, career-ending injury in the next few weeks not withstanding, Santana is going to be a very wealthy man very soon.

The Crying Game 2: The Plight of Stephen Drew

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Explaining the absence of a market for Stephen Drew and what should happen in the coming weeks.

Given the fact that in just 124 games he had the eighth-best fWAR and tenth-best rWAR amongst shortstops in 2013, the market--or more appropriately, the lack thereof--for Stephen Drew has been surprisingly static. With pitchers and catchers reporting to Spring Training over the next ten days (the Diamondbacks battery reported today), the fact that there appear to be no teams even remotely close to signing Stephen Drew surely has left the youngest of the Drew Boys wondering if the order of Major League General Managers could pick him from a line-up consisting of Stephen Dorff, Steven Weber, Steven Seagal, and the silver screen's Tamara Drewe. [At least four would choose the titular lead of the latter, Gemma Arterton, but that's because Terry Ryan, Kevin Towers, Dan Jennings, and Dave Dombrowski are all gender-blind.]

There are a handful of reasons why the market for Drew has yet to shift into gear.

The first of these reasons is likely Stephen Drew's [repeatedly] stated desire for a multi-year deal. With Scott Boras calling the shots on Drew's behalf, it seems rather unlikely that Drew will sign for just the one-year deal to which his various timid suitors seem willing to ink him.

The reason for this hesitancy is intrinsically linked to the second of the aforementioned reasons for the Drew market to have yet to leave the gates: Stephen Drew's injury history. Not unlike his notoriously injury-prone brother, J.D., Stephen's herculean battles against a musculoskeletal system that would turn any person into a Calvinist have been relatively unsuccessful these past three years. Between 2011 and 2012, he stepped onto the grass just 165 times, missing the last half of 2011 to a broken ankle that refused to heal until halfway through the 2012 campaign. To add injury to injury, a concussion and a hamstring injury conspired to limit him to 124 games in 2013. With an oft-injured brother blazing the path ahead of him and an average of 96 games played over the past three years, teams are understandably wary to commit multiple years to Drew the Younger.

The third reason is that the Red Sox extended a qualifying offer to Drew, meaning that any team without a protected draft pick forfeits their first round draft pick per the terms of the year-old Collective Bargaining Agreement. This means that if you are not the Astros, Marlins, White Sox, Cubs, Twins, Mariners, Phillies, Rockies, Blue Jays (twice over), or Mets--or the Red Sox, of course, who wouldn't be penalized for eventually re-signing one of their own players--signing Stephen Drew will cost you your first round draft pick. With 19 prospective landing spots facing the penalty of a lost first-round pick for signing the injury-prone shortstop at his asking price of a multi-year contract, it is hardly shocking that teams aren't trampling over one another to get at the Pride of Valdosta.

Once the fact that the White Sox, Cubs, Phillies, and Rockies are set at short for the time being and that the signing of Drew wouldn't make sense for the Astros or Marlins because they have no need to spend the money this year on Drew or the Mariners because they have a ML-ready internal option in Brad Miller (not that this has stopped Jack Zduriencik this offseason...), you are looking at just the Twins, Mets, and Blue Jays--who would play Drew at second--as potential landing spots of the teams who wouldn't be penalized for signing Drew. It's hard to imagine the Twins deciding to add another multi-year deal this offseason. Their game plan would seem to be to have enough available money to patch any holes via free agency when their wave of highly touted prospects starts to hit Target Field in an offseason or two. This leaves just the Mets and Blue Jays of the teams with protected picks who would be (and have been) linked to Drew.

When the teams that would not make sense as a landing spot for Drew of the other 19 teams get ruled out, the only possibilities to add to the mix would be the Giants (Drew is at least a marginal upgrade from Brandon Crawford), Padres (again, Drew is a marginal upgrade over Everth Cabrera), Pirates, Reds, Yankees, and of course the Red Sox. With Jordy Mercer holding his own in 2013 and Alen Hanson waiting in the wings, the Pirates probably would not want to part with their first round pick. The Reds haven't done much of anything this offseason, and it's hard to figure out why they would start with Stephen Drew when they could give one last season to Zack Cozart at league minimum. With viable and comparable internal options and the continued possession of their first-round draft picks, it is difficult to envision a scenario in which Drew would make sense in San Diego or San Francisco. This leaves just four teams--the Mets, Blue Jays, Yankees, and Red Sox--to duke it out over signing of Stephen Drew.

With the Mets being nowhere near contention (at least realistically), it has been reported in multiple places, namely here:

and here:

that the Mets aren't really looking to sign Drew, this leaves just the three teams in the AL East as likely homes for the Georgian pivot man.

The final reason, as Jon Morosi tweeted today, why the signing of Stephen Drew has not happened yet may be related to this:

With the 23-year-old defector Diaz gumming up the works for the next two weeks, it isn't hard to imagine Drew not finding out where he'll be hanging his hat for the next year[-plus, if Scott Boras has anything to say about it] until Spring Training is already in full gear. With reports on Diaz's glove being relatively mixed and the possibility that he might need to move to the other side of second base, it is at least a little head-scratching to the casual observer to wonder why Diaz is holding things up, if that is in fact the case.

One could certainly argue that Drew might add enough value to the thin Yankees' infield that they should do whatever they have to in the coming weeks to get him in pinstripes if they are serious about competing in the stacked AL East, but columnists--or at least columnist--in Boston think Drew's return to Boston is all but certain. Toronto is likely no better than the third-most likely team to sign him despite the fact that they would not forfeit a pick for Drew.

Regardless, it seems certain that Drew will spend the coming weeks shriveled up and sobbing in the shower trying to make sense of how his world got all topsy-turvy. Ben Cherington, think of his children.

Baseball America's MAC Baseball Preview

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They've got it all: the team to beat, top prospects, players to watch.

Baseball America has been releasing previews for each conference that plays at the Division-1 level. Today, they've released their preview for our beloved Mid-American Conference. Let's start by looking at who they think are the top 10 prospects in the MAC:

Pos.- Prospect (School)Eligible for 2014 Draft?
RHP- Jordan Foley (CMU)Yes
LHP- Brian Clark (Kent St)Yes
OF- Logan Regnier (CMU)No, 2015
LHP- Matt Trowbridge (CMU)Yes
RHP- Scott Baker (Ball St)Yes
3B- Zarley Zalewski (Kent St)No, 2015
SS- Andrew Sohn (WMU)Yes
OF- Nick Regnier (CMU)Yes
RHP- Alex Klonowski (NIU)Yes
OF- Matt Honchel (Miami)Yes

Team to beat: Central Michigan

Baseball America seems pretty big on the Chippewas. With four players in their list of top 10 prospects in the conference, Aaron Fitt says that "The Chippewas expect their pitching staff to be their deepest and most talented in the last decade, bookended by ace Jordan Foley and closer Matt Towbridge."

Player of the year: Andrew Sohn, SS, Western Michigan

This is why I'm glad BA exists, because I had no idea that Sohn was this noteworthy. But hey, he is the #7 prospect in the MAC. Looks like we'll be keeping our eyes peeled to see how he does this season as he enters his junior year.

Pitcher of the Year: Scott Baker, RHP, Ball State

Baker is really good. The ace for Ball State had a spectacular year as a true sophomore and is expected to be even better in 2014. Outside of Baker and Foley, be sure to follow other starting pitchers like Eli Anderson (NIU), Brian Clark (Kent State), Eric Lauer (Kent State), Sterling Sharp (Eastern Michigan) and Cody Agthorpe (BGSU).

Freshman of the Year: Eric Lauer, LHP, Kent State

Named #14 on BA's list of top 50 freshman in the nation, Lauer should have an immediate impact in the MAC. Lauer was drafted in the 17th round in the 2013 MLB Draft by the Toronto Blue Jays.

You can read the rest of BA's MAC preview here.


The 2014 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 40-36

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Our annual Top Prospects list, we start at the shallow end of the pool.

We start our annual prospects list. We are a little later getting going this year, I kept expecting that there would be a trade that would cause changes to the list but so far it isn't happened. Of course now that I've started posting....

Anyway, as always the ones at the back of the list are more potential prospects than actual prospects, guys that, with a good season could move up the list or, with a bad season, could be quickly forgotten.

40. Emilio Guerrero:  Emilio was a international free agent signing, in May of 2011. He had a breakout season, in 2013, at Lansing, at age 20, coming out of nowhere to make our list. He hit .277/.355/.402, with 17 stolen bases and 8 home runs, at Lansing, in his first taste of full season baseball. He was promoted to Dunedin, at the end of the season and played a couple of games there. He did make a bunch of errors, at shortstop, 33, giving him a .917 FA. Rough infields in the Midwest League can be blamed for some of that, but he's not the smoothest of fielders, at least yet. He is a big guy, 6"4' and will likely add some weight to his 190 pound frame, so he might need to move off shortstop, but there is time for that.


39. Brady Dragmire: Brady was a 17th round pick in the 2011 draft but the Jays must have liked him, he got a $250,000 signing bonus. It might be a bit early yet to consider him a real prospected but he had a very good season at Bluefield, pitching in 14 games, 8 starts, 2.16 ERA,  throwing 50 innings, allowing 39 hits, 8 walks with 40 strikeouts. He isn't a big guy, listed at 6'1" and 180, but throws low 90s and has the normal assortment of pitches.

38. Rob Rasmussen: Rob came to the Jays, with Erik Kratz, from the Phillies, in the Brad Lincoln trade. He's not so much a prospect , more a guy that could come up if the team runs into a lot of injury trouble in the starting rotation (much like the last two years). From the Dodgers SB Nation website:

He has a 4-pitch mix and while he maxes out at 92 mph, it's his curveball, slider, and location of his pitches that allow him to get by. While I don't think Rob will ever be a great big league pitcher, I do think he has what it takes to eventually settle into the back of a big league rotation. He's proven he can compete with the best of them, and it will be interesting to see where his career goes from here.

Rob was a second round pick by the Marlins in 2010. He's 24 now, turns 25 on April 2th. He had a rough time in Albuquerque in the PCL, last year, putting up a 6.46 ERA, but then everyone has a rough time in the PCL. Moved back to Double-A, he had a 2.55 ERA. in 16 games, 14 starts, 81 innings, 76 hits, 28 walks and 76 strikeouts.

He isn't big, 5'9", 160 lb, about the same size as Marcus Stroman. I hope we don't see him this year, but I'd rather him than Thad Weber. I do think he is the type that could be ok, but would have to be given time to figure out how to get major league hitters out and the Jays don't seem to be the patient types.


37. Dickie Thon: Dickie Thon Jr has had an interesting few years. We drafted him in the 5th rounds of the 2010 draft and it took a little work to sign him. His father (who has the same name (my son would say some people might find that confusing)  and was a pretty decent MLB player) said he wouldn't sign with the Jays but he did (who could turn down a $1.5 million bonus?). He was number 18 on our 2011 prospects list, then dropped to 30th in 2012. Then, after an illness spoiled his 2012 season, he fell right off our list. A good 2013 (plus trading many of our best prospects last off-season) gets him back on the list.

Last season, at age 21, he hit .280/.370/.378, with 3 triples and 1 home run, in Vancouver. He knows how to take a walk, he's supposed to have more power than he's shown, maybe the illness cost him some strength. He did make more than a few errors, 16, giving him a .911 FA, but he's said to be a decent SS, who needs some work on his footwork and his throwing, but should be able to get there. Like the others in this group of five, he's going to have to take a step up this year to be a real prospect.


36. Christian Lopes: Christian was number 10 on our list last year, but has dropped a long ways.  A .245/.308/.336 season at Lansing will do that to you. He did have 5 home runs and 40 walks, against 78 strikeouts. He doesn't have great range at second base, but he should be at last ok at the position with some work. He turned 21 in October, and he still has time to move back up the prospect list but he's going to have to take a step up with the bat soon.  We were optimistic about him a year ago, but far less now.

Christian was a 7th round pick in 2011, getting a pretty good bonus.


Which of these 5 do you think will move up on our list next year?

Samardzija agrees with Cubs

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Jeff Samardzija has reached an agreement with the Cubs to avoid arbitration.

The Chicago Cubs have reached an agreement on a one-year deal with pitcher Jeff Samardzija to avoid arbitration, according to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman. The contract will pay him $5.345 million in 2014, and prevents the Cubs and Samardzija from going to potentially nasty arbitration hearing, which would have taken place on Monday.

The 29-year-old right-hander had originally filed for $6.2 million, while Chicago had submitted a $4.4 million offer. The $5.345 million agreement falls just above the midpoint of the two deals, which was $5.3 million.

Samardzija has been the Cubs de facto ace over the past couple seasons since moving from the bullpen before the 2012 season. In 61 starts over the past two years, he has posted a 4.10 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 5.8 WAR, and 9.1 K/9 over 388.1 innings. He is set to enter free agency at the end of the 2015 season, though the Cubs have shown an interest in extending the former Notre Dame football star. However, he has also come up in some trade rumors this winter, particularly with the Blue Jaysand Diamondbacks.

MORE FROM MLB DAILY DISH

It's Always Snowing In Canada Sunday Feb 9, 2014 Links

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It's getting close to spring training so there were a large amount of baseball related links to make. In this edition, among the links we get "Good Connections" Griff and "Mediocre Analyst" Griff, a look at what happened to the best farm system in 2012 (it's not good at all), the effect of the Loony Loonie and some ballpark food that looks different and tasty unlike the stuff we get from the current 'Dome supplier.

JAYS LINKS

The Blue Jay Hunter: One Last Time: Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez?
Looking at whether Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana is a better fit for the Blue Jays.

Blue Jays' GM Alex Anthopoulos never that close to acquiring Ian Kinsler: Griffin | Toronto Star
Rangers coveted Edwin Encarnacion with second base a Jays priority but Kinsler no-trade meant a deal was never close enough to "fall apart"

The Blue Jay Hunter: The Blue Jays Starting Rotation is in Rough Shape
Without any offseason signings, the Blue Jays 2014 starting rotation is looking pretty rough.

Blue Jays’ projected 2014 lineup features mostly familar names: Griffin | Toronto Star
It seems GM Alex Anthopoulos has been able to convince himself not as many changes were needed as he once thought.

The Blue Jay Hunter: Takeaways from the Blue Jays State of the Franchise
Ian's recap of the Blue Jays State of the Franchise with Alex Anthopoulos, Paul Beeston and John Gibbons.

Blue Jays may benefit from compensation rules - Sportsnet.ca
It’s not a coincidence that five of the top free agents available are all linked to draft pick compensation. Any team hoping to sign Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, Stephen Drew, Nelson Cruz or Kendrys Morales must be prepared to surrender a top draft choice, which frustrates players, agents and interested teams alike.

Blue Jays Notebook: How late is too late? - Sportsnet.ca
As the Blue Jays continue playing the waiting game for starting pitching, Roy Halladay talks to the organization’s prospects. Plus notes on other potential moves by the Toronto front office.

Jose Reyes is so ready for baseball season that he’s playing catch in the snow | Big League Stew - Yahoo Sports
From Yahoo Sports: After a disappointing 2013 season — both for himself and his new Toronto Blue Jays team — Jose Reyes is looking for redemption in 2014. In fact, he's itching so much for baseball that he's playing catch in the snow.

Sinking loonie threatens teams' bottom lines - Sportsnet.ca
For the first time in years the dollar is hovering around 90 cents, with some predicting it could fall much lower. It’s a prospect that Canadian sports owners and executives fear.

MLB LINKS

Cory Luebke And Difficulties In San Diego | FanGraphs Baseball
Remember this was less than three years ago. A "top" ranked farm system is a frangible thing. Who was 2nd and 3rd? Both are in the AL East.

Tommy John Surgery: Major Surgery | FanGraphs Baseball
Of course, it’s not that automatic, and of course, there’s still the year-long rehab, but Tommy John surgery isn’t feared the way it used to be, and the results tend to speak for themselves.

For the Birds "
Grantland's Jonah Keri looks at an AL East bird team with issues.

Flawed system leads to MLB waiting game - Sportsnet.ca
In theory, the concept of compensating a team that loses a significant free agent with a draft pick makes a lot sense. Suffer some pain in the present? Here’s a little promise for the future to ease the sting. Call it social justice, baseball style.

Tool: Basically Every Hitting Stat Correlation
By popular demand (OK, one guy asked for it), my first offering in the re-envisioned THT is this batting version of my pitching statistic correlation tool (newer version here).

So You Want to Be a Beat Writer…
So you say you want to be a beat reporter. Do you know what the life is really like? Are you ready to travel? You’ll have to travel like you never have.

What Kind of Hitters are Volatile?
Ever since I began writing publicly about baseball, I’ve been looking into the topic of player volatility. Two main questions have motivated this research: 1) To what degree do players’ performances from game to game vary from their overall seasonal performance, and 2) What accounts for differences in this variation?

Price Ceilings and the New Posting System
Masahiro Tanaka was set to be the third pitcher to produce a hefty posting fee for a Japanese baseball team until Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball agreed to make the maximum posting fee $20 million.

Giants are giving away an awesome R2-D2 beanie at this year’s ‘Star Wars Day’ | Big League Stew - Yahoo Sports
From Yahoo Sports: This is the droid you're looking for. The San Francisco Giants are giving away these awesome R2-D2 beanies on Aug. 31 as part of their "Star Wars Day."

ODD LINKS

Card Corner Plus: Cito and the ’74 Nationals
A look at the baseball card of the most successful (and at times stubborn) Jays manager.

Houston Astros target of painfully accurate Olympic rings joke | Big League Stew - Yahoo Sports
From Yahoo Sports: As you've undoubtedly heard or seen by now, the opening ceremonies at the Sochi Winter Olympics didn't get off to the best start on Friday night.

Minor league team may sell mashed potato hot dogs, chicken and waffle sliders this year | Big League Stew - Yahoo Sports
From Yahoo Sports: The West Michigan Whitecaps, the Single-A team for the Detroit Tigers, are one of minor-league baseball's top teams for unusual food. Last year, they introduced a bacon-shell taco to go along with their already popular Fifth Third Burger

Russian Police Choir Sings "Get Lucky" Before Sochi Opening Ceremony
The Russian police choir, which has become rather famous for its wonderful covers of popular pop songs, made an appearance before the Olympic opening ceremony in Sochi today. It was delightful.

More Rumors: Jays 'bid' on Suk-min Yoon

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The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo mentions the Blue Jaystwice in his column today.

The first mention was the usual 'could be in on' Ubaldo Jimenez stuff. Yes we could be in on him.

The other was about Suk-min Yoon:

We seem to be about a week away from a decision on where the South Korean will land. When Masahiro Tanaka was out there, teams considered him the best free agent pitcher, and now Yoon could be that guy. Concerns about an injury to his elbow have subsided, as medical reports have been studied closely by teams. There's lots of competition for him. The Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Orioles in the AL East have made bids. The Diamondbacks also remain interested, but at this stage "it could be anybody," according to a National League general manager.

It could be anyone. We do fall under the anyone category.

Suk-min does have pretty good numbers in the Korean Baseball Organization

YearAgeTmWLERAGGSCGSHOSVIPHERHRBBSO
200922Kia943.462716007119.211046944117
201023Kia633.832313103101.0954353694
2 Seasons1573.6350291010220.2205891480211
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/9/2014.

I don't know, I don't see him as being someone that would help us much this year, but I'd love some news.

The Jays aren't mentioned in Nick's section on Stephan Drew, but he does say that Scott Boras tells him he is speaking to 'multiple teams' about Drew.

Sources: Perhaps the Blue Jays will sign Ervin Santana or Perhaps Not

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Once again the Jays are rumored to be close to signing Ervin SantanaThis time it is Fox Sports telling us that he's close to signing with, well, someone, maybe the Jays, maybe the Orioles, maybe someone else. Maybe he's going to take up basketball.

Santana's camp is talking with multiple teams and making progress toward a new deal for the free-agent right-hander, according to major league sources.

The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays are among the teams in contact with Santana's agents at Proformance Baseball, sources said.

Or maybe not the Jays:

I wish the Jays would either sign someone or come out and say 'we aren't signing anyone, the team we have now is what we are going to go with, so there'.

I can understand why a team wouldn't want to give up a first round draft pick to sign Santana. But since the Jays have 2 protected first round picks (and a habit of not signing them), that's not an issue.

Sources tell me that I WANT ACTUAL BASEBALL TO START.

Dustin McGowan, looking for rotation spot, will ramp up slowly in spring training

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Entering his fifteenth season in the Blue Jays organization, Dustin McGowan will be looking forward to something that he hasn’t done since his ninth year with the Jays: leave spring training as a member of the 25-man active roster. In fact, in his big league career, McGowan has only thrown 37 innings in April—35 of which came in 2008, the first and only season that he broke camp as a member of the starting rotation.

McGowan has informed the Blue Jays that, in 2014, the starting rotation is once again his goal. The club has obliged his request, on the condition that he work separately from the other starters in a personalized program at the beginning of spring training.

"We’re gonna start off slow, not like regular training," McGowan told Bluebird Banter, "I will build up slower than everybody else, just to see where it leads us."

There is now less than a week left until pitchers and catchers report and the last two spots in the rotation is still up for grabs. The Blue Jays have not yet made any additions to it this offseason, but McGowan would have to beat out the likes of J.A. Happ, Esmil Rogers, Todd Redmond, and Drew Hutchison, not to mention convince the Blue Jays that he can pitch deep into games and maintain his health.

"Right now, I know it’s a long shot, but we’ll see where it goes. I’m hoping for the best."

The 31-year-old (32 by Opening Day) was a first-round pick by the Blue Jays back in 2000—a compensation pick for Graeme Lloyd—rising through the system one level at a time until he was called up from double-A New Hampshire to make his major league debut in 2005 against the Rangers. He threw five innings of two-hit, one-run ball, striking out six and walking just three that day. The six strikeout mark still ties him for second place on the franchise leaderboard for major league debuts. McGowan would go on to have a career year in 2007, but then his well-known streak of injuries started in early July 2008 when he was removed from a start with soreness in his right elbow. In that game recap, Tom Dakers wrote:

So let's hope McGowan doesn't need to miss any time, that a rest over the till after the All-Star break is enough for him.

Well, it turned out that his rest was a little longer than expected. By the end of July, he had surgery to debride his frayed labrum. He started soft tossing in 2009 but then tore the ACL in his knee. A year later, he was back on the road to recovery, then in 2010 he hurt his shoulder again and visited Dr. James Andrews for season-ending surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff in June (incidentally announced on the same day that the Blue Jays designatedEdwin Encarnacion for assignment). In the press conference that followed the announcement, Alex Anthopoulos described the surgery, in a very Anthopoulosian fashion, as "not bad news and not good news."

Little did he know that Dustin McGowan would not pitch in the majors again until September 6, 2011 when he was called in to mop-up a 11-0 deficit against the Red Sox. I still remember the sparse crowd at the Rogers Centre giving McGowan a standing ovation as he walked off the field that night.

The reaction from the normally quiet hometown crowd reminded McGowan of what it felt like to be a major leaguer again. But even though he lost prime years of his career to injury, McGowan never felt depressed because he was able to spend time with his family during his recovery.

"Fortunately for me, the time when I got hurt was the time when I had my first little girl, so I got to watch her grow up," McGowan explained, "a lot of guys don't get to see their kids grow up at a young age because they're going from city to city."

The Blue Jays' commitment to McGowan—signing him to a three-year contract extension that guaranteed him $4.1 million—probably helped him through the tough rehab process too. Of course, right after the signing McGowan was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis and then later had shoulder inflammation issues which caused him to miss the entire 2012 season. His shoulder was still "barking" at the beginning of spring training in 2013, which led to his being placed on the disabled list to start last season.

However, during that stint on the disabled list, Dustin McGowan decided to make a massive change in his exercise routine: he joined the weighted-ball program that was popularized by teammate Steve Delabar. He worked with trainer Jamie Evans to personalize the program to focus on strengthening his arm and shoulder muscles in order to increase stamina and reduce chances of injury. When he was finally re-activated on June 8, he pitched very well in relief before straining he injured his oblique in August. McGowan is still a firm believer in the weighted-ball program and have been following it this entire offseason.

"This has been the first offseason doing the ball program, so that has been my main focus," McGowan said, "I don't think it is for my velocity, hopefully it will make me stay strong. That's what our program's set up for."

Asked about the use of biomechanics to analyze where his delivery may be causing his injuries, McGowan thinks that pitchers have to be comfortable with how they pitch and that too much analysis may not be a good thing.

"I believe that if you start changing people’s mechanics, that’s when people really do get hurt," he said, "We play baseball, people will get hurt—there’s just no natural way to throw a ball."

And what would be his goal for this season?

"To play the whole season. That’s all I could ask for."

Suk-min Yoon rumors: Blue Jays have placed bid on Korean righty

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At this point, the market for Yoon is pretty wide open.

The Blue Jays are one of the teams that has placed a bid on Korean right hander Suk-min Yoon, according to the Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo. Yoon is one of the few players remaining that does not come with the added cost of a draft pick.

Cafardo also mentions the Red Sox, Orioles, and Diamondbacks, citing a source that said "it could be anybody" at this point in the process.

Since Hyun-jin Ryu left the Korean Baseball Organization, Yoon has been widely considered the ace of the league.

The 27-year-old dominated the KBO as a starter in 2011 and 2012, but a shoulder injury caused him to scale back his workload. He pitched much more out of the bullpen in 2013, posting a 3.60 ERA in 19 relief appearances compared to a 4.16 ERA in 11 starts.

With experience as both a starter and a reliever, Yoon could be considered more of a swingman for interested clubs. However, if the bidding reaches substantial enough figures, the winning team might feel the need to use him as a starter to justify their investment. That could lead to a transition period in the minors or a slow integration into the rotation from the bullpen, depending on the depth of the organization he signs with.

Toronto's rotation is currently featuring R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Brandon Morrow, J.A. Happ, and Kyle Drabek, with several impact prospects in the high minors.

More from SB Nation MLB:

Is 20-year-old Byron Buxton baseball's next great player?

The top 300 prospects of the 2014 MLB draft

Brisbee: How much better are D’backs with Arroyo?

Roth: The man who wants to own every Tim Wallach baseball card

Ralph Kiner dies at 91 | The Ralph Kiner Show


The 2014 Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects: 31-35

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The next five on our prospects list.

35. Yeyfry del Rosario: Yeyfry (who deserves extra points for the greatest first name in the system) dropped a few spots from his 22nd spot on last year's list, mostly because he ended up in the bullpen at Bluefield this year. He pitched in 16 games, all out of the pen, putting up a 2.54 ERA, in 28.1 innings, allowing 24 hits, 15 walks and 33 strikeouts, with 2 saves. After showing good control last year, 2.4 walks/9, he walked too many this year, 4.8/9, but still got more than 10 strikeouts per 9 innings. Yeyfry was an international free agent signing in 2011 out of the Dominican, he turns 20 at the end of April. He tops out at 91 on the fastball and has a curve and a change.

34. Deck McGuire: Deck was added to the 40-man roster this winter to protect him from the Rule-5 draft. He made some steps forward this year. His second season at Double-A, he gave up fewer hits (8.5/9 from 10.1 in 2012), fewer home runs (0.7/9 from 1.4), fewer walks (3.4/9 from 3.7) and more strikeouts (8.2 from 6.1). You do expect to see improvement in a player's second turn at a level but it is nice to see. Course the 4.86 ERA wasn't exactly make you excited.

When he was drafted in the first round of the 2010 draft, the plan was that he would quickly work rise up the system and be a starter in the back of our rotation long before now. But, last year we used 13 different starting pitchers and Deck wasn't one of them. I would think that his best chance now would be to have a good season and hope to be next in line when someone gets hurt. Now that he's on the 40-man, he is in better position to be an injury replacement, but then he'll have a bunch of guys in front him. He's 24 now, if nothing happens for him this year, it might be time to move him to the bullpen.

Deck was number 8 on our list in 2012, then 35th last year. Fly ball pitchers at Rogers Centre worry me.

33. Shane Dawson: You think I was going to leave an Alberta boy off the list?

Dawson was our 17th round pick of the 2012 draft but he's been great since hitting the minor league system. In 2013 he split time between Bluefield and Vancouver. In Bluefield, he had a 3.29 ERA in 27 innings, with 17 hits, 6 walks and 35 strikeouts (you do have to like a 33.7% strikeout rate). Called up to Vancouver, he made 4 starts, with a 2.89 ERA, in 18.2 innings, 17 hits allowed, 4 walks and 26 k.

Shane is 20 and is listed at 6'1" and a 180lb (I get the feeling that he's not that tall), so not a huge lefty. His fastball is low 90's and he throws a change and curve. He' not going to be someone that blows batters away with the fastball, but he already knows how to change speeds and keep batters off balance.


32.Gabriel Cena: Gabriel was a international free agent, fromMaracaibo, Venezuela, signing back in 2010, when he was 16. Last year, at age 19 he finally started showing the potential that the Jays thought was worth $700,000, hitting .259/.348/.417 with 3 home runs, 17 walks and 32 strikeouts.

Cena mostly played first base, this past year, I was hoping he'd be able to stay at third. He played a couple of games at catcher and the Jays were talking about moving him to the position, they've always said he had a strong arm.The hope is that, as he matures, and fills out, he'll add strength and be a power hitter. It would be nice to see some of that power soon.


31. Jeremy Gabryszwski : Jeremy was a second round pick in the 2011 draft and he's done a nice job in the minors since. Last year he made 14 starts, for Vancouver, putting up a 2.82 ERA, 76.2 innings, 71 hits allowed, 10 walks, 40 strikeouts and 0 home runs allowed. Gotta like the 0 home runs. He is a ground ball pitcher who hasn't moved up on our lists because he doesn't strikeout many and we kind of like strikeouts (Jeremy was #26 on our 2012 prospects  list and #32 on last year's list).

Gabryszwski (Woodman663 called him King Scrabble the Third) is a big guy, 6'4", listed at 195 and throws low 90's, with a good slider and change. It's possible the strikeouts will come, as he matures, or maybe he'll become a more extreme ground ball pitcher and continue to put up good numbers as he moves up the system. He is going to have to improve on the 12.9% strikeout rate to move up the prospect list. He turns 21 in March, so he has a bit of time to come up with the strikeout pitch.


That's today's group, who do you think will move up the list next year and who do you think will fall off the list?

Three Blue Jays on Fangraphs Top 100 Prospects

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Our friend, Marc Hulet, has posted his top 100 MLB prospects on over at Fangraphs.

He has Aaron Sanchez at #22, Marcus Stroman #56 and, the surprise, at least to me, Mitch Nay at #100.

About Nay he said :

Nay is probably the biggest surprise in the entire Top 100 (you probably won't find him on anyone else's list) but I'm going out on a limb with him much like I did with Michael Wacha last year and that worked out pretty well. Nay has a chance to be something very special with the bat and should hold his own defensively.

About Stroman:

Stroman's lower-than-expected ranking is due to my continued expectation that he's not long for starting (although I fully expect Toronto thinks he can remain a starter long term).

Of course, there are a bunch of former Jays:

18: Noah Syndergaard

39: Travis d'Arnaud

63: Justin Nicolino

69: Jake Marisnick

I'll admit,  first thing I did on OOTP 14 was trade to get back Travis d'Arnaud. He reminded very injury prone, in the game, but he hit well enough that I moved him to DH, where he still managed to get injured most seasons.

Jake Marisnick was a favorite of mine, I hope he goes on to have a great career.

Jamie Moyer, Matt Stairs join Phillies broadcast booth

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The former Phillies will reunite as part of the club's new broadcast team for the 2014 season.

Jamie Moyer and Matt Stairs will join the Phillies broadcast booth on Comcast SportsNet for the upcoming season, according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.

The former big-league veterans both played for the Phillies in 2008 when the club won the World Series. Per Zolecki's report, the pair will replace former broadcasters Chris Wheeler and Gary Matthews, who are leaving after the Phillies negotiated a new, 25-year TV deal with Comcast this offseason. Moyer and Stairs could join the broadcast team as early as tomorrow, with the two simply needing to finalize their contracts before it becomes official.

Moyer, who has done some broadcasting work with ESPN, interviewed for the position three weeks ago, while Stairs, who has some experience with NESN, interviewed two weeks ago. Comcast had initially intended to hire only one broadcaster, but came away impressed with both candidates during their auditions.

According to Matt Gelb of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Moyer and Stairs will each do 100 games in 2014, 30 of which will be together in a three-man team with play-by-play man Tom McCarthy.

The 51-year-old Moyer pitched in 25 major league seasons for eight different teams. He spent five seasons in Philadelphia and appeared in three games during their World Series run in 2008. He retired after going 2-5 with a 5.70 ERA for the Rockies in 2012 and finished his career with 269 wins and a 4.25 ERA.

Stairs last played in the majors in 2011 for the Nationals and was a member of the Phillies for two seasons in 2008 and 2009. The left-handed slugger played for 13 different teams during his 19-year career, finishing with 265 home runs and a .262/.356/.477 career line.

Now the two will reunite in the booth and should begin broadcasting games in late-February when the Phillies begin their spring training slate. Comcast's first televised game will be on Feb. 26 when the Phillies will play the Blue Jays in Grapefruit League action.

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Ryan Hanigan's dog takes best in breed at Westminster | #Lookit

Why trade Homer Bailey when the Reds can win now?

Giancarlo Stanton still open to long-term deal

Jeter: Yankees have to move on without A-Rod

Poll: Where will Ubaldo Jimenez land?

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Perhaps the best free agent still remaining, Ubaldo Jimenez's market is limited.

Spring Training has essentially started, however a number of high-profile free agents still remain jobless as we enter mid-February. Among them is starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez, who is probably the best player still available. Despite a pair of uninspiring performances in 2011 and 2012, he returned to form in 2013, notching a 3.30 ERA (114 ERA+), 9.56 K/9, and 3.2 WAR in 182.1 innings. While any potential suitor will be hoping for a return to his 2010 performance (2.88 ERA, 221.2 IP, 6.5 WAR), odds are those days of dominance are over, and he is now more of a number two or three starter rather than an ace. Still, for a pitcher of his caliber, he should be drawing more attention. Unfortunately his market has been extremely handicapped by the presence of other middle-tier arms such as the recently signed Matt Garza and the similarly comparable (to Jimenez that is) Ervin Santana, as well as a general reluctance to surrender draft picks for non-elite free agents.

So, with the winter winding down, which team will Ubaldo Jimenez be suiting up for this season?

Seattle Mariners

Having already spent an enormous sum this offseason (additions include Robinson Cano, Fernando Rodney, Corey Hart, and Logan Morrison), the Mariners could theoretically be willing to add to a payroll that currently projects to be in the ~$80 million range, especially considering the team had an opening day payroll of $94 million just three years ago (it was $84 million last year) and $100+ million in 2008 and 2009.

Hoping to contend in a crowded AL West, the M's could sorely use another high-quality starter. Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma are locked into rotation spots, but after them, the staff looks rather shaky. Scott Baker pitched in just three games last season, Erasmo Ramirez is coming off a 4.98 ERA season, and both Taijuan Walker and James Paxton face questions surrounding their big-league readiness. Singing Jimenez would go a long way in fortifying their rotation, making them more than just a one-two punch.

Baltimore Orioles

Last we heard, the Orioles were interested in signing one from the trio of Bronson Arroyo, Santana, and Jimenez. With Arroyo off the board now, the Orioles figure to make a run at one of the other two options, or go internally to fill their final rotation spot. With Chris Tillman, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, and Miguel Gonzalez penciled into starting gigs, that fifth spot is currently projected to go to prospect Kevin Gausman, who is near big-league ready but struggled in his short stint in Baltimore last season (5.66 ERA in 47.2 innings), and could probably use a tad more seasoning in the minors.

While the above group may be impressive in depth, they really don't have a true number one or two option, unless you consider Chris Tillman to be that guy. They could definitely use Jimenez, but you have to wonder if the Orioles may be better off spending their cash on a bat considering their rather sizable holes at DH, second base, and in left field.

Cleveland Indians

Jimenez landing back in Cleveland appears to be a real long shot right now, as there has reportedly been little contact between the two sides. The organization appears set on making a playoff return with a rotation consisting of Justin Masterson, Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar, Zach McAllister, and some combination of Carlos Carrasco, Shaun Marcum, Josh Tomlin, or Trevor Bauer. Realistically, that's not really a playoff caliber rotation, and two key components of last year's playoff squad have either already left (Scott Kazmir) or are primed to leave (Jimenez).

Cleveland doesn't necessarily seem financially fit enough to retain Jimenez, and it is likely that management recognizes that it will be hard to recapture the glory of 2013. Still, Cleveland is the only team with the ability to sign Jimenez without having to give up a draft pick, which may make him an appealing option on a short-term deal if he wants to take a high-salary one-year contract and reenter the market next offseason.

Toronto Blue Jays

It's been evident for a while now that Toronto appears destined to sign either Santana or Jimenez, as they are one of just a small number of teams inclined to give up a draft pick (due to two protected first round picks, they would only have to give up the 49th overall selection) for one of the two. Their interest is quite reasonable, as they're heading into the season with a bleak rotation of RA Dickey, Mark Buehrle, JA Happ, Brandon Morrow, and Kyle Drabek. The Blue Jays are depending a lot on numerous bounceback campaigns, and Jimenez (or Santana) would be a significant upgrade to their currently weak crop.

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The Fog of Rajai Davis

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The presence of Rajai Davis has made it very difficult to see the struggles the Blue Jays have had on the base paths in recent years.

Whenever commentators, sportswriters, or fans say that one player is carrying a team in baseball it is usually misleading hyperbole. No matter how good a pitcher is it takes a rotation to make a playoff run. Even if a single hitter is playing out of his mind one man does not a lineup make. Mike Trout has been around for two years absolutely dominating the game of baseball and has yet to see playoff action. Baseball is a team sport. However, in recent Blue Jays history there has been one notable exception, at least in one facet of the game. That exception goes by the name of Rajai Davis.

The Jays have been largely a disappointing team in the last few years, but there have been has been one area where they've consistently ranked among the league leaders. That area is base running. The following chart shows how the Blue Jays have done when it comes to running the bases in the last three years:

Stolen Bases

Caught Stealing

Base running Runs (BsR)

367 (5th )

134 (7th)

21.7 (6th)

There are a few more times caught stealing than you might want to see, but the results are generally good. The aggressive but effective base running style was something that was often attributed to "Farrell Ball" but now that John Farrell is gone it seems much wiser to attribute it to the man who's truly responsible: Mr. Rajai Davis. Davis was an unbelievable force on the bases during his tenure with the Blue Jays stealing 125 bases in three years despite not starting every day. To demonstrate Davis's effect on the team the next chart shows Toronto's base running stats minus the contribution of Rajai Davis, and where a hypothetical Jays team without Davis would rank league-wide over the same time period:

Stolen Bases

Caught Stealing

Base running Runs (BsR)

242 (27th )

104 (21st)

0.0 (15th)

In a very literal sense Rajai Davis created every once of positive value that the Blue Jays had on the bases in the last three years. In terms of stolen bases alone Davis managed a 80.6% success rate, compared to a 69.9% rate for the rest of the team. The comparison between Davis and his teammates is even more astounding looking at last years statistics in particular:

Sample

Stolen Bases

Caught Stealing

Base running Runs (BsR)

2013 Blue Jays

112 (10th)41 (7th)4.7 (8th)

2013 Blue Jays minus Davis

67 (22nd)35 (10th)-5.5 (21st)

Of course, it is slightly unfair to separate a team from their best base runner in this manner. This chart is not adjusted to remove the best base runners from all the other teams so creating the rankings for "2013 Blue Jays minus Davis" is more of a descriptive exercise than a precise one. That being said, it's amazing the effect that Davis had on a team that was supposed to have a lot of plus base runners on it. Davis stole bases at a 88.2% clip compared to the 65.7% rate his teammates managed. The Jays definitely had some bad luck in terms of their other guys, Reyes couldn't run as much with his ankle troubles and Bonifacio struggled too much to stay in the lineup, but Davis was truly a one man band on the base paths.

In 2014 the Blue Jays should see their base running fortunes improve in a variety of ways. Perhaps Anthony Gose will become every bit the superlative stolen base artist Davis was, although it should be noted he only swiped bags at a 62.8% rate in Buffalo last year. With any luck Jose Reyes will be healthy enough to be the kind of factor with his legs that fans are used to seeing and Melky Cabrera will almost definitely run less like a cadaver now that he has his spine sorted out. Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus are also both plus athletes with potential to post good BsR ratings even if they don't steal a lot of bases. Power threats Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion have also been known to swipe the odd bag, so the situation is far from hopeless.

Even if the situation was hopeless base running is a very, very small part of baseball in the scheme of things. It is monumentally unlikely that whether the Blue Jays bounce back and win the division or suffer another brutal disappointment will depend on their prowess on the bases. However, as Rajai Davis departs he leaves behind a team whose struggles with base running had been obscured from view due to his singular brilliance. Now Blue Jays fans will see what this team can really do with their legs. The fog has been lifted.

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