Today is a big day for Todd Redmond in his quest for a spot in the starting rotation on the Blue Jays' squad, especially with Dustin McGowan now looking like a contender for the same spot. With a long list of optionless players, including the recently-acquired Matt Tuiasosopo, Redmond would have to perform well in this outing and the next to stick around in Toronto.
Redmond will be facing the Tigers' travel squad today, so he will get a break, from most of their regular bats. Both the Blue Jays' and the Tigers' newest players, Austin Romine and Tuiasosopo, respectively, will not be in uniform today.
Michael Pineda takes the mound to face off against a strong Blue Jays' lineup. The Yankees will also send out a strong lineup as we inch closer to the regular season.
The latest updates on pitching, the backup catcher role, the lineup, and the injuries to Ellsbury and Ryan.
With spring training winding down, there are a lot of announcements and other things happening, so here's a general news roundup.
Pitching
Joe Girardi has said that the Yankees will probably announce their decision about the fifth spot in the rotation on Tuesday. They're waiting until after Michael Pineda's outing against the Blue Jays today to start discussing it. Based on our poll, PSA readers think that Pineda will win the role by a landslide, with David Phelps coming in a distant second.
The bullpen decisions are not expected to come before the end of the week, though Girardi said that they'll have to decide before Saturday because that's when the team will leave Florida.
CC Sabathia has officially been named the Opening Day starter. No one is surprised. He's pegged to get an extra day of rest this week, then pitch a short start on Thursday. His last two outings have been great, so hopefully he brings that stuff with him to Texas. Girardi also said that he's decided when Tanaka will be pitching, but he doesn't want to disclose that information just yet.
Backup Catcher
Girardi has all but officially named Francisco Cervelli (or Saravelli, if you're the Twins announcers) the backup catcher. "We’re continuing to evaluate," Girardi said. "[Cervelli's] had a great spring. He has the most experience of any of these guys, so he looks really really good." Whoa, two "really"s? Sorry to those of you holding out hope for John Ryan Murphy or Austin Romine.
Lineup
A couple of weeks ago, Girardi said that Mark Teixeira would be batting lower in the lineup than the number three spot. Did anyone interpret that to mean that he would be batting cleanup? I sure didn't. When asked if Tex was going to hit in the cleanup spot, like he did in Friday's spring training game, Girardi said "It’s a possibility that we could have...I’m not saying that’s what we’re going to do, but it’s a possibility that we could have." Uh, okay. It's a possibility that Eduardo Nunez will earn the triple crown, too.
Injuries
Jacoby Ellsbury had an MRI on his calf on Thursday, which came back clean. He went through hitting, fielding and running drills on Saturday and Girardi expects him to be back into games on Tuesday. The plan would be to get him into four more games before the regular season starts (in nine days!).
Brendan Ryan has a pinched nerve in his back and will likely be out of commission when the season opens. According to Chad Jennings, "Girardi indicated that if Ryan’s not ready to open the season, the Yankees will likely take two from the group of Eduardo Nunez, Dean Anna, Yangervis Solarte and Scott Sizemore." The injury is unfortunate, but it would be really nice for someone who is not Nunez (and who could possibly out-perform Nunez and steal his utility spot) to be given a look.
Michael Pineda once again looked pretty good in a spring training start. While this start featured the first runs Pineda has allowed all spring, some of them can be charged to some mistakes by the Yankee defense. It was a fairly good game for Yankee pitching in general. It was not a good game for the Yankee offense. The lineup managed just one run on eight hits as the Blue Jays picked up a 3-1 win.
Toronto scored the game's first run in the top of the second. After an easy 1-2-3 inning, Pineda looked like he was going to get another ground ball out to start the second. Unfortunately, our friend Eduardo Nunez's throw to first was off and Edwin Encarnacion reached on a throwing error. Adam Lind and Dioner Navarro then hit back-to-back singles, the second of which scored Encarnacion to make it 1-0. After striking out Colby Rasmus, Pineda hit Brett Lawrie with pitch, loading the bases with just one out. Pineda then got Ryan Goins to ground into a double play to escape the inning with just one run on the board.
In the top of the fifth, the Blue Jays added a few more runs, thanks partly to some more Yankee mistakes. Rasmus and Lawrie led off the inning with two straight singles. Goins then came up and laid down a bunt. Pineda fielded it, but his throw to first hit Goins and allowed Rasmus to score and Lawrie to move to third. After Goins was caught stealing second, Pineda got Chris Getz to ground out. Melky Cabrera then came to the plate and during his at bat a wild pitch allowed Lawrie to score. Pineda got out of the inning with no further damage, but the score was now 3-0.
The Yankees finally got on the board in the bottom of the sixth. Ichiro Suzuki led off the inning with a double and then moved to third when Brett Gardner singled. Derek Jeter came up next, and while he grounded into a double play, Ichiro was able to score. Carlos Beltran also doubled in the inning, but the one run was was all the Yankees could get.
The bullpen got in a bit of trouble in the top of the seventh. Cesar Cabral loaded the bases with one out, only for Dellin Betances to come in and get out of it with no damage done.
Danny Burawa and Jim Miller each pitched an inning without much trouble. Overall, the Yankee pitching had a pretty decent day. However, the Blue Jay pitching had an even better one. The Yankees could only manage the one run off Mark Buehrle. The Blue Jay bullpen also had a relatively easy time going through the Yankee lineup. Until the ninth inning.
Zelous Wheeler and Antoan Richardson both reached base in the ninth to put the winning run at the plate with just one out. Russ Canzler just missed a walk-off home run as Moises Sierra made a catch on the warning track. Yangervis Solarte then struck out to end the game as the Blue Jays finished off a 3-1 win.
After getting the day off tomorrow, the Yankees return to the field Tuesday night at 7:05 eastern to take on the Phillies.
Tom Gage address 10 questions that the Tigers face as the season gets closer, injuries shouldn't keep Detroit out of a run for the World Series, and Vin Scully is still the best in the business.
When it was announced that defensive whiz Jose Iglesias would miss most (or all) of the season with stress fractures in both of his legs, the Tigers said they were content with considering internal replacements at shortstop.
Tigers open the regular season a week from Monday, but as manager Brad Ausmus said before Saturday's 9-4 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays, the team still has a lot 'moving parts right now.'
Sports are supposed to be a microcosm of life, a simplified model, one in which the rules make sense and are always the same, where (unlike life) winning and losing are objective concepts.
Is there anything the legendary Vin Scully can't do? Apparently not, even when it comes to welcoming fans to Dodgers baseball from the land Down Under.
Jeff Samardzija's name has been on the trade block all offseason. Is it finally time for a deal?
Jeff Samardzija is the most prominent Cub who's been mentioned in trade talks this offseason and I've written about him at length. Many of those potential trade partners have filled their needs, but a couple of teams still look to have starting pitching needs (Blue Jays, Diamondbacks). It seems likely that unless management and Shark can work out a contract deal by mid-season, Samardzija will be traded by the trade deadline. The Cubs have been vocal in saying they'd like to extend Samardzija and Samardzija has been vocal in saying he'd like to stay a Cub.
So what's the holdup? Samardzija wants to be paid like a top-of-the-rotation starter even though his performance has never been top of the rotation quality for a full season. I feel as though the deals I'm going to propose below could get the job done now, but it's possible the Cubs won't entertain deals like this until later in the season, as they're reportedly holding out for quite a bit. Because of that, I have tweaked some deals I previously proposed upward a bit...
Blue Jays trade suggestion: Samardzija for RHP Aaron Sanchez, RHP Chase DeJong, LHP Sean Nolin and LHP Jairo Labourt
Aaron Sanchez: Potential No. 2 starter that throws an excellent mid 90s fastball and a developing curve ball and changeup. He needs to work on his command and continue to refine his curve ball and changeup into plus pitches in order to reach his ceiling. Reports have him impressing this spring, particularly with his command.
Sean Nolin: Near major league ready starter with the potential to be a No. 3 or No. 4 inning-eater. He throws a fastball, curve, slider and changeup, with only the changeup as a plus pitch. All of those play up due to his outstanding control.
Chase DeJong: Part of a cadre of interesting young arms the Jays had in rookie league. DeJong has some projection left and currently throws a low 90s fastball. He throws a plus curveball and a changeup that flashes plus and projects to have plus command. His ceiling is a No. 3 starter.
Jairo Labourt: Ceiling as a MOR starter with three potential plus pitches. He shows good control, but he needs to get more consistent and make sure his already big body doesn't get away from him.
Other Jays names to keep an eye on:
RHP Marcus Stroman: Divisive top 100 pitcher. Three plus pitches, but at 5'9", can he stick as a starter?
LHP Daniel Norris: Ceiling as a MOR starter with three potential plus pitches, but needs to refine his command and changeup.
RHP Alberto Tirado: Ceiling as a No. 2 starter with two potential plus pitches and a plus-plus fastball, but needs to improve his command and stamina.
RHP Miguel Castro: TOR upside, but needs to improve stamina, control and secondaries.
RHP Roberto Osuna: Had Tommy John surgery last year and has questionable makeup, but has No. 3 upside.
LHP Matt Smoral: Giant (6'8") with a great fastball, plus slider and developing change. Questions about his ability to stick in the rotation.
RHP Tom Robson: No. 4 projection, plus fastball and changeup, but needs to improve his curveball
Braden Shipley: A Top-100 pitcher who could be a No. 2 starter if he can reach his ceiling. He throws a mid-90s fastball, an excellent changeup and a curveball that could eventually become plus. He needs to work on his command, but his athleticism leads most to believe that will eventually come.
Stryker Trahan: Recently moved to the outfield, but my guess is the Cubs would move him back to catcher. Trahan has a great arm, but needs work on his receiving skills. He also shows good power but he may need to refine his swing to move away from his swing and miss tendencies.
Jose Martinez: Martinez throws a mid-90s fastball and an outstanding curveball, but needs work on his changeup. He's extremely skinny so strength and weight is needed for stamina and he needs to improve his command. He has the potential to be a No. 2 starter if everything comes together.
Jake Barrett: Barrett is a potential future closer with a good mid 90s fastball and plus slider. His changeup needs work, but he should be ready for a major league pen sooner rather than later.
Sergio Alcantara: Alcantara is a strong defensive shortstop with a good plate approach and a good hit tool. He's only 18, so there's a lot of risk, but the upside is an everyday shortstop.
Diamondbacks Three-Team Trade Suggestion: SS Didi Gregorius and LHP James Russell to the Pirates; Jeff Samardzija to the D-backs; RHP Braden Shipley, RHP Tyler Glasnow & RHP Jake Barrett to the Cubs.
Other Diamondbacks names to keep an eye on:
RHP Aaron Blair: 2013 first-rounder, mid-rotation upside, needs work on breaking pitches
RHP Matt Stites: Possible late innings reliever with excellent control. Great fastball & solid slider.
RHP Zeke Spruill: Back of the rotation guy who is major-league ready. Could end up in the pen because his secondaries are iffy.
RHP Geordy Parra: A-ball arm with a good fastball and splitter, but needs a third pitch.
C Michael Perez: Very good defensive catcher, but he needs work on his hit tool and approach.
After the dust settled this offseason, I really think the Jays and Diamondbacks are the only teams that will seriously look at Shark before the season starts. I think the Braves will hope band-aids will be OK until midseason and if that doesn't work, they could re-visit a deal. Some will ask about the Athletics, but trading for a guy like Samardzija isn't the kind of trade the A's usually do and I don't think they'll start now. The thing that both the Jays and Diamondbacks front offices have that could really benefit the Cubs is a hint of desperation. The Jays just made several big trades last offseason that more or less blew up in their face. The D-backs' Kevin Towers, on the other hand, can be a loose cannon who seemingly gives up on prospects very early and made several win now moves this offseason.
Of these two teams, I like what the Jays have to offer much more. They have a plethora of pitching prospects that the Cubs can pick from and all of them should be on the table (unlike with the Diamondbacks, where I think Archie Bradley is certainly off the table). While word has it the Cubs wanted Stroman and Sanchez, I think the Cubs would take one of the two if they can get enough quantity in high upside lower level guys (which the Jays have boatloads of) and another guy in Nolin they can slot into the rotation soon.
As for the Diamondbacks, not including Bradley makes a trade much more difficult. Braden Shipley would almost have to be included, but he can't be traded until June, so he'd have to be included as a PTBNL. After that, you'd have to think the Cubs will demand Jose Martinez as well. Aaron Blair is the only other one that looks like a possible mid-rotation guy, but, like Shipley, can't be traded until June. I think the Diamondbacks make much more sense if they can ship off one of Gregorius or Chris Owings to another team for pitching talent the Cubs want, because the rest of their arms are unimpressive.
At the beginning of the offseason, I felt it was 50/50 whether or not Jeff Samardzija would be dealt. As we got into the offseason and the noise around Shark increased, I thought it was a guaranteed lock he'd be gone before the season. Now? I'd be very surprised if anything happened before opening day. That being said, if a team came calling with the offers above, I'd pull the trigger. The question is, would the front office?
Several developments in Blue Jays camp were revealed this morning all via the fine reporters down in Dunedin. First, John Gibbons announced that shortstop Jose Reyes will be getting his tight left hamstring looked at under a magnetic resonance imaging device later today to see what's going on. Just like the 50-or-so times we've heard it said it last year, Reyes is considered to be day-to-day, so depending on the odds I might throw in a few bucks to bet that he won't be on the Opening Day lineup (sorry).
Munenori Kawasaki, who was told he was not going to make the 25-man roster (unless Reyes is not available, I assume), will be allowed to stay in big league camp for now. With Reyes's injury and Kawasaki's popularity, I would predict that #66 would be travelling with the team up to Montreal this weekend for the exhibition games against the Mets.
Speaking of which, the Blue Jays have announced that the crowd at Stade Olympique will see Mark Buehrle start on Friday night (which will let them arrive earlier at afterparties) and Brandon Morrow start on Saturday afternoon. I will be there for both games that weekend and hopefully many of you would too. So this is what the first round of the rotation is looking like:
Also, according to a Bisons press release, the triple-A team lost 6-4 in a minor league spring training game to the Indianapolis Indians on Sunday. Ricky Romero started the game and allowed five runs in three innings. No further detail about Romero's outing was on the release, but I think we can guess how many walks he might have given up because the Indians only had seven hits in the entire game.
I'll have to admit, the Reyes, MRI thing worries me. With him, I think we have a very good offense. Without him there is a black hole at the top of the order.
There is a bit of intrigue, the Jays had Moises Sierra in the original lineup, playing CF, but he was scratched with Jose Bautista replacing him and playing CF. Nothing against Jose, but I really don't want to see him in CF.
Intrigue over, Sierra has the flu. All players should have flu shots.
Over at the Star, Morgan Campbell has more on the story that Nick posted, the removal of Steam Whistle from Rogers. Morgan tells us that the reason the Jays did this was because they didn't like some things Steam Whistles Twitter feed (@steamwhistle) had said. Honestly, in a number of ways, the Blue Jays have to grow up.
Jays lineup:
Tulasosopo, LF
Lawrie, 3B
Rasmus, DH
Bautista, CF
Lind, 1B
Navarro, C
Glenn, RF
Izturis, SS
Goins 2B
Brandon Morrow pitches. He should start the second game in Montreal too.
Jeremy Jeffress pitched a scoreless inning, allowing a hit, getting a strikeout and gave up a pretty hard hit ball to center field, that was caught. He looked ok too.
Matt Tuiasosopo made it back from Australia, he was 1 for 3 with 2 strikeouts. He made a very nice throw from left field.
Brett Lawrie was 1 for 2 with a walk. His out was a hard hit line drive to left center.
Less Happy Thoughts:
Brandon Morrow went 5 innings, allowed 5 soft singles and 3 walks, with 4 strikeouts. 4 earned runs. I only saw one hard hit ball off him, a line drive to center field that Jonathan Diaz tracked down. It really wasn't a bad start, I'd rather see soft singles than hard hit outs in spring training.. The walks weren't great.
Jose Bautista was 0 for 2. He made a couple of catches in center field and made a good throw home that almost got the runner. .340.
Tony Davis came in with one on and no outs in the 8th and gave up two hard hit doubles, getting 1 out before the game was called for rain.
Tomorrow the Jays play the Pirates. The game isn't on TV or MLB.tv. J.A. Happ gets the start. At the same time Dustin McGowan will start in a minor league spring game.
As Spring Training winds down, questions about the roster are supposed to approach zero, but the Blue Jays decided to flip it around and increase the confusion as March closes out. Currently the bullpen, bench, and starting rotation are not known and new players come into the picture seemingly every day. The (possible?) injury to Jose Reyes has made the situation even murkier and now John Gibbons can do nothing but mumble and hope the media leaves him alone.
So it's time to leave John Gibbons alone and make the decisions ourselves! Put on your best southern accent and decide what on earth this 25-man roster is going to look like. What's my best guess assuming Jose Reyes starts the year with the big league squad? Here you go:
Starting off with the easy one, considering it's already basically been decided. Ryan Goins has a good chance of absolutely crashing and burning at the plate in the big leagues, but he should at least be given the chance before looking elsewhere for the future of the Blue Jays '4' spot. If I was Alex Anthopoulos (which I'm not, I'm John Gibbons) I would try to make a trade with Seattle or any other team with a capable second baseman and give up some bullpen pieces. The team has stockpiled an impressive bullpen, but it's time to cash in some of the chips to end up with a more complete team.
I'm not in love with Maicer Izturis being on the team, but I still don't rate Munenori Kawasaki above him and Chris Getz will always be there as an option if Izturis doesn't impress.
Eight-man bullpen and three-man bench
Pretending I'm John Gibbons has made me start thinking like him I'm pretty sure. I hate the eight-man bullpen, but someone will get hurt within the first few weeks of the season and the situation will probably take care of itself. My bullpen would feature: Casey Janssen, Sergio Santos, Steve Delabar, Aaron Loup, Brett Cecil, Jeremy Jeffress, Dustin McGowan, Esmil Rogers and my bench would feature: Maicer Izturis, Erik Kratz, and Moises Sierra. I'd rather not lose Esmil Rogers or Jeremy Jeffress for nothing and I don't think McGowan is ready to step into the rotation with the amount he's been stretched out this spring. The bench covers all of the defensive positions pretty well, except a solid centre fielder, but once injuries hit the team, a fourth player can be added to make it a bit more reliable.
The player messing everything up seems to be J.A. Happ and I'd like to see him get three starts at the beginning of the season and then a final decision needs to be made on his future. There's a backlog of pitchers that could provide Happ-like performances in the fifth spot and losing Happ would make the roster situation much more flexible. If Happ didn't pitch well to start the season, Mcgowan or Rogers could slot into the fifth spot, reducing the bullpen to seven players and allowing another bench player to be called up from Buffalo.
Never Start Adam Lind against a left-handed pitcher....ever
There's nothing to write here, but if I'm John Gibbons I'm not making this mistake ever again.
That's what I would do if I was John Gibbons. Now let's hear what you would do. In the words of the skipper himself, "BestofluckhubbaDustinMcGowan startermaybe Idunno RyanGoins second base"
Long the laughingstock of the NL Central, in 2014, the Cubs look poised to remain the laughingstock of the NL Central. Their pitching is suspect, their lineup has more holes than Dennis Rodman's face, and even their star players aren't the stars many thought they would be. However, with Theo Greyjoy and Jed Hodor in town, the future is bright. Wait, sorry, I have Game of Thrones on the brain. I meant Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer. Ahem. Apologies. Regardless, Theo and Jed have amassed an army of position prospects that are getting closer and closer to the majors. Let's take a closer look at this year, however.
Who's New?
I suppose we should start at the top. The Cubs fired Dale Sveum after 2 years, and, after flirting with Joe Girardi, settled on Padres bench coach and relative nobody Rick Renteria. Like Bryan Price, this'll be his first major league managerial job. Unlike Price, however, Renteria managed a few minor league teams, so in that sense he has a bit more experience. In any case, he'll have his work cut out for him.
The Scott Feldman Honorary Memorial Mediocre Pitcher on a One-Year Deal Award goes to Jason Hammel, who signed an aforementioned one-year, $6M deal. I'm pretty sure all parties involved assume if he has a halfway decent first half, he'll be flipped before the deadline. The Cubs also snagged former Astros closer Jose Veras on a 1-year, $4M deal with a $5.5M club option, and brought in Justin Ruggiano to play CF, who, when asked about how he'll handle the position, replied that he's "got this."
Other familiar faces on the squad are Ryan Sweeney, who'll start as the 4th OF/PH, James McDonald, who'll probably serve as AAA depth, and George Kottaras as the backup C. As for minor league signings, former Reds Chris Valaika and Darnell McDonald are in camp, along with Emilio Bonifacio, former ROY Chris Coghlan, Ryan Roberts, and Jonathan Sanchez. LOL.
Who's Gone?
He. He gone. Oh wait, wrong team. The Cubs said "suck it" to Dioner Navarro, and rightly so, as the Blue Jays tossed a Walt Jocketty special his way, signing him to a 2-year, $8M deal. Another former Red, Dave Sappelt went off seeking greener pastures, leaving just Travis Wood as the last remnant from the Sean Marshall deal. I think they still might've won the trade, though. The Cubs also lost surprisingly not-terrible closer Kevin Gregg, along with Scott Baker, Daniel Bard, and Brian Bogusevic from last year's squad. These names I've spent more than 400 words describing tell you just how rebuild-y this Chicago team is.
Storylines
Your average, everyday run-of-the-mill Cubs fan will be eager to look for a scapegoat for what's sure to be a rough year, and new manager Rick Renteria could be just that. Although now that I think about it, the average, everyday, run-of-the-mill Cubs fan knows nothing about baseball and is only a Cubs fan because it's trendy or neat to go get sloshed at Wrigley with that Cubs hat his Aunt Mabel got him last year. But you know what I mean. It's easy to put the manager in the hot seat when the team is a hot pile of muffcabbage, but I doubt Theo/Jed will get rid of him unless the team underachieves even the low expectations people have for them.
Another thing to keep an eye on will be Jeff Samardzija. Will he take the next step? Will he be traded? My gut says yes, for cheaper, controllable high-minors pitching prospects, but what do I know?
Will Starlin Castro rebound from his shockingly replacement-level 2013? Hopefully! Then we might get to see more of this:
The biggest storyline, however, is one that might not materialize until later in the year. You see, the Cubs have a glut of pretty amazingly terrifying position prospects, including Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Albert Almora, and Jorge Soler, among others. Their pitching pipeline isn't nearly as impressive, but judging by their pursuit of Masahiro Tanaka, it appears they're willing to invest to improve there. This team could be scary in a couple of years.
Projected Lineup:
1B: Anthony Rizzo 2B: Darwin Barney SS: Starlin Castro 3B: Luis Valbuena LF: Junior Lake CF: Justin Ruggiano RF: Nate Schierholtz C: Wellington Castillo
Rotation: Jeff Samardzija Edwin Jackson Travis Wood Jason Hammel Chris Rusin/Jake Arrieta/Carlos Villanueva/James McDonald
Closer: Jose Veras RH Set-up: Hector Rondon LH Set-up: James Russell
The Gist
By all accounts, the Cubs won't be very good in 2014. They're a bad team right now, waiting on their talent to mature and become major-league ready. The thing is, that might happen sooner than we think. The future of the rotation is certainly still very much a work-in-progress, though Epstein and Hoyer are constantly tinkering, making savvy moves to bolster the supporting staff that should fill in around what looks to be an offensive powerhouse in the making. But not yet. Let's all enjoy the LOLCubs while we still can.
The idea that Brett Lawrie is an unbelievable fielder is rarely questioned by Jays fans, but perhaps it should be.
Brett Lawrie has been an unpredictable sort from the moment he exploded on the scene with the Blue Jays, both in terms of his persona and his production. Lawrie's 2.5 WAR in only 171 plate appearances in 2011 gave Blue Jays fans the impression that he would be a dynamic offensive force that would help lead the Jays to greatness for years to come. Instead he's been the sort of dynamic offensive force that doesn't walk or hit for much power and constantly pounds the ball into the ground. Lawrie has posted below average wRC+ marks in each of the last two years and hasn't shown much growth at the plate.
None of that is to say that he won't. Lawrie is only 24, he has definitely flashed signs of excellence with the bat, and his numbers may be depressed by the number of injuries he's suffered. Youth remains on his side, but not for that much longer, and the injury excuse will only work if he can stay healthy for a long enough period of time to show us what the difference between healthy Lawrie and hurt Lawrie is.
He is the type of player that normally wouldn't get the benefit of the doubt from impatient fans waiting to see what blew their socks off in 2011, especially given his controversial uber-competitive demeanor. Two years of subpar production is a lot to ask people who expect excellence to stomach.So, why is it that fans, who definitely aren't getting any more rational, are still on board with Lawrie?
His passport doesn't hurt as a starting point. Fans definitely like to cheer for the "good Canadian kid". However, more significantly, these fans have been conditioned to believe that he has super-human ability with the leather that makes up for all his other flaws. The main culprits are Pat Tabler and Buck Martinez who constantly harp on his glove work and its unmatched brilliance. As a result, Blue Jays fans are sucked into believing that they can wait on Lawrie's bat to come around, which is far from a given, because he's a Gold Glove player who is saving runs for this pitching staff left, right, and centre. To be fair to the Blue Jays broadcasting team, Lawrie tends to pass the eye test.
However, a couple of weeks ago the Tabler-Martinez world view was challenged by Mr. Keith Law. In this article (though to be honest I found the comments over at DJF) Law said that Brett Lawrie "doesn't walk or play enough defense to be an everyday solution if he's not hitting for a high average."
Law is a smart enough guy that his comments are worthy of some examination. While I don't mean to tread on Stoeten's territory in terms of analyzing Keith Law-isms, I do think that Brett Lawrie's defense is worthy of further review. Jays fans have been quick to assume that Lawrie has superlative abilities in the field, and given that the eye test never gave reason to challenge that hypothesis it has persisted for the last couple of years. Today I'm going to put that hypothesis to the test.
When we deal in defensive statistics, there is some controversy that comes with the territory. Everyone has their preferred metrics, and some believe that certain statistics are completely worthless while others are close to gospel. One thing almost everyone agrees that a single season is not enough of a sample size to draw much of a conclusion. To that point, five or six weeks of extraordinary defense at second base is not enough for a sane person/front office to justify belief in a player who is little more than a minor-league veteran as a starting second baseman... but I digress.
No one is going to agree on the exactly what the best method for analyzing a player's defensive production statistically so I figure I would give you some options and you can come to your own conclusion. The first of Lawrie's defensive stats worth examining are the more basic ones. This chart below shows how Lawrie has done in his three-year career in some of the simpler metrics compared to league averages:
Player
Errors
Fielding Percentage
Percentage of balls fielded resulting in outs
Percentage of bunts fielded resulting in outs
Brett Lawrie
33
.959
87%
57%
MLB Average (3B)
N/A
.955
87%
64%
According to these numbers Lawrie is pretty ordinary in the field, but we know how subjective errors can be so in order to broaden the picture we move on to some more advanced numbers. In this case the following table ranks Lawrie among third baseman who have spent at least 2,000 innings in the field over the last 3 years, of which there are 19:
The last tool we might use to look at Lawrie defensively is the newest in FanGraphs' arsenal: Inside Edge Fielding. Inside Edge Fielding looks at how well each player does making plays that have a particular likelihood of being made, whether they be remote or routine. The table below shows how Brett Lawrie fares with plays across the spectrum of difficulty and once again he is compared to his peers. Since Inside Edge data is only available since 2012, the dataset changes to third baseman who have spent at least 1,500 innings in the field in the last two years. 21 players meet that criterion.
Percentage of plays made on "Remote" attempts (1-10%)
Percentage of plays made on "Unlikely" attempts (10-40%)
Percentage of plays made on "Even" attempts (40-60%)
Percentage of plays made on "Likely" attempts"(60-90%)
Percentage of plays made on "Routine" attempts (90-100%)
12.0% (7th)
33.3% (10th)
54.6% (12th)
81.4% (8th)
96.9% (13th)
For the more visually-inclined folks out there this info comes with some pretty pictures of Lawrie's made plays...
As well as his missed plays...
This info should be taken with a grain of salt because it is fairly new and some of the categories are based on very small sample sizes. After all, a third baseman doesn't get the chance to make a "Remote" play that often. That being said, the Inside Edge Fielding numbers once again show Lawrie as a good, but not great, fielder.
When we stray from the eye test and choose to evaluate defensive prowess statistically, it is difficult to know what information is helpful and what will lead us astray. If you choose to believe that Lawrie is an elite fielder you need look no farther than DRS, a very credible defensive metric, which suggests that the Blue Jays third baseman is the best in the league at his craft.
However, most of the numbers presented today seem to suggest that Lawrie is above-average, but perhaps not as outstanding as many people seem to think at fielding his position. I don't have enough faith in any of the numbers above to definitively make a statement to that effect, but I do think it's a possibility worthy of strong consideration, especially in light of Keith Law's recent comments.
If Brett Lawrie isn't the defensive wizard that many assume he is, he will really need to come around with the bat to be a valuable player for this team. That isn't necessarily an indictment of his ability to contribute to the Jays as an above-average everyday player in the future, or even as early as this year. After all, when they acquired him it was the special bat they were looking for. The talent is still there and time is still on his side, but 2014 would be a good time for Lawrie to take a step forward in the batter's box. The reality is that he's probably more David Wright than Manny Machado in the field, and David Wright didn't become a superstar with his glove alone.
The first big decision of the spring has been made as Erik Kratz has been sent down to minor league camp. Kratz was the favourite to get the backup job and catch R.A. Dickey, but it turns out the Blue Jays though differently (shocker). Here's the confirmation:
.@BlueJays Roster Move- Catcher Erik Kratz optioned to minor league camp
Thole, a 27-year-old left-handed hitter appeared in 45 games last year with Toronto hitting .175. It'd be interesting to hear if R.A. Dickey got any input on the decision considering this backup role is essentially a personal catching job for the knuckleballer. It's likely Thole will start opening day in Tampa Bay as Dickey will be starting this game. Kratz had been more impressive this March after coming over from Philadelphia, but it wasn't enough to get him a big league job.
UPDATE
A bunch of other huge news just dropped, but this guy has a quiz in 3 minutes so prepare for a bunch of tweets with no insight!
As spring training winds down, the Yankees take on the Blue Jays on the road at Toronto's complex in Dunedin. A decent amount of regulars in the starting lineup actually made the trip, but the fact that this game is being started by reliever Chris Leroux, who would be a surprise on the Opening Day roster, tells you who's available on the pitching staff. A minor bit of news that is completely unsurprising is that Francisco Cervelli is all-but-officially the Yankees' backup catcher now that John Ryan Murphy and Austin Romine have both been assigned to Triple-A Scranton. (To his credit, he says he'll believe it when he sees his locker on Opening Day; as Jason noted, it's almost like he's been tricked before...) It will be interesting to see how they divvy up playing time between the two of them down there, but Cervelli seems like a fine choice given his abilities both on offense and defense, and his prior experience with the Yankees, capably backing up Jorge Posada, Jose Molina, and Russell Martin at various points from 2008-2011 before his brief-but-impressive injury-shortened stint as starter in 2013.
Knuckballing former Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey takes the mound for the Blue Jays. No word yet on who the second-stringers will be today. Video and audio for the game is available on MLB.tv
Yeah that's our old friend Kelly Johnson playing first. I hope he plays a lot of first base for them this season.
Dickey has the catcher he wants. He did seem to pitch better after Thole was called up last year, but that was likely more to do with his neck and back getting better.
What does the 2014 season look like for the Blue Jays?
If you were reading a preview of the upcoming Toronto Blue Jays season a year ago, you would be expecting to find a series of arguments asserting the Jays as the no-doubt winners of the American League East, and maybe even the World Series. Such enthusiasm would be warranted given the additions of R.A. Dickey, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Melky Cabrera and Emilio Bonifacio. But now we are looking ahead to 2014 where, following a miserable 2013 season, and more or less the same group of players on the roster, the Jays are a reasonable pick to finish at the bottom of their division. It is truly remarkable what one poor season can do to alter perception of a team.
The Blue Jays have not made the playoffs in the last 20 years; the second longest active streak in major league baseball (Royals haven't been in 28 years). They Jays seem to perpetually be a team in the middle. Over the last 10 years their winning percentage is 0.492 (877 - 904). While they have been good in some seasons, they have never been great; peaking at 87 wins over the same time frame. Playing at this relatively mediocre level is not going to breed much success, especially in the unforgiving AL East.
As much as recent history suggests that the Jays will be a middling team again in 2014, perhaps the fact that the majority of last season's roster is back should be considered positive. There was great expectation for the Jays' core group of players last year that will be taking the field again this year. So maybe this team should be considered a contender for 2014.
2013 Season in Review
74 - 88 (0.457 win percentage), 5th place in the AL East. The 2013 Jays' season was a real disappointment. Their starting pitching was terrible, defense was painful to watch, and key players missed a lot of time and/or played through nagging injury (e.g., Jose Reyes, Brandon Morrow, Melky Cabrera). In fact, the Jays had the 4th most Disabled List days in 2013. They also gave far too many innings to replacement level players like J.P. Arencibia, Munenori Kawasaki, Maicer Izturis, and Mark DeRosa. With very few exceptions, 2013 was a year to put in the rear view mirror.
The exceptions came in the form of Colby Rasmus, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Cecil, and Casey Janssen. Rasmus produced 4.8 fWAR in 118 games; showing the potential he displayed in 2010. Bautista and Encarnacion combined for 64 home runs, once again anchoring the Jays' offensive attack. Cecil and Janssen were consistently effective parts of a strong bullpen. Some, including myself, expected Jays' GM Alex Anthopolous to trade one of both of them this offseason to improve the club's starting rotation. But that did not happen.
Key Offseason Moves
With most of the core group in place for 2014, Anthopolous and the Jays' front office needed to address their efforts around improving the team in a few critical areas: catcher, starting pitching and second base. While they were rumored to be in on a few of the big name free agent pitchers (most notably Ubaldo Jimenez, Matt Garza and Ervin Santana), and could have signed Stephen Drew to play second base, nothing much materialized beyond Scott Boras ripping the Jays ownership. In the end the offseason moves have really only addressed needs at catcher and re-signing a fan favorite.
Signed Dioner Navarro (Catcher; bats: switch; throws: right) for 2-years, $8M.
The release of J.P. Arencibia and his 0.227 OBP left an opening for Navarro. Navarro is probably not as good as he seemed to be in Chicago last year, but he is an upgrade over Arencibia. Navarro will make more contact, draw more walks and provide reasonable defense. Ideally Navarro can also avoid getting into spats with local media.
Traded for Eric Kratz (Catcher; bats: right; throws: right).
Soon after acquiring Navarro, the Jays traded Brad Lincoln to the Phillies for Eric Kratz and Rob Rasmussen. Rasmussen will start the year at Triple-A Buffalo. Kratz had a shot to make the team out of Spring Training as the Jays primary backup catcher and likely R.A. Dickey's personal catcher. He performed well this Spring, hitting .400/.444/.720, but was optioned to Triple-A Buffalo, as the Jays have decided to go with Josh Thole to start the year. Overall, Kratz will not be expected to hit very much. He just needs to be able to catch the knuckleball if he is going to stick with the big league club this year.
Signed Munenori Kawasaki (IF; bats: left; throws: right) to minor-league contract.
Kawasaki is a fan favorite in Toronto. He is a quirky player with loads of personality. Unfortunately, very little of that translates to production on the field. Kawasaki is a replacement level utility infielder that will get time at 2B with Ryan Goins and Izturis. Second base continues to be an issue for the Jays. Maybe having Kawasaki along for the ride again can put a few extra bums in the seats.
Here is where I should be proposing one player on which you should focus your attention this season. But I am going to get a bit sneaky and instead suggest that you focus your attention on one specific position on the Jays' roster: the 5th spot in the starting rotation.
The Jays' rotation was terrible in 2013. They posted a 4.81 ERA, second-worst in the major leagues (only the Twins' 5.26 was worse). This performance came as a result of injuries (Morrow, J.A. Happ, Dickey), poor performance (Josh Johnson), and relative inexperience (Esmil Rogers, Todd Redmond).
Coming into 2014, the rotation remains a question mark but looks to be set with Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Morrow, Hutchison and Dustin McGowan. The 5th spot is McGowan's for now, but could (read: will) also be filled at some point by Happ, Kyle Drabek, Marcus Stroman, or Ricky Romero. McGowan is a great story, but his injury history makes it really difficult to know what to expect going forward. As a group these players are real points of interest for the Jays. Hutchison and Drabek are potential future stars coming off Tommy-John surgery. Stroman is ranked as the game's no. 55 prospect according to Baseball America, but has yet to pitch an inning above Double-A. Together these three pitchers represent the rotation of the future. Finally, there is Romero. Once an All-Star and Cy Young candidate, he has been relegated to a reclamation project following his meltdown in 2012.
The ability of these young players to competently fill the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation, and even fill in for an injury here and there throughout the season, will be important for the Jays' success in the AL East. This seems like a lot to ask of such inexperienced players, but perhaps as a unit these four pitchers can provide the necessary effective innings.
Blue Jays by the Numbers
Let's focus in on some of the Blue Jays batting numbers from 2013:
185 - number of HRs hit. This was the 4th highest total in baseball behind the Orioles, Mariners, and Athletics.
.158 - isolated slugging (ISO). The 4th highest rate in baseball behind Orioles, Red Sox and Athletics.
39.75% - Guillen number (percentage of runs scored as a result of home runs). This was the 5th highest rate in baseball behind the Mariners, Orioles, Cubs, and Braves.
Taken together, these numbers clearly show that the Jays are mashing away at the plate. And overall it led to a productive offense: 712 runs scored (9th best in baseball). But did this approach have a limiting effect on the offense? Here are some things to consider:
.284 - batting average on balls in play (BABIP). This is the 4th worst rate in baseball above only the Marlins, Mariners and Cubs. When the Jays were not hitting the ball over the fence they were struggling to get hits. Perhaps this was just a matter of being unlucky, but then we consider...
20.4% - line drive rate (LD%). This is the 5th worst rate in baseball. Line drives are known to be more likely to fall in for hits than ground balls or fly balls. So perhaps the Jays were not so much unlucky, as they were not making quality contact. We can also consider...
11.2% - infield fly ball rate (IFFB%). This is the 3rd highest rate in baseball. Infield fly balls are effectively strikeouts. They are routine plays at the major league level and do nothing for advancing runners. So again we have some evidence that the Jays were not making great contact in many of their plate appearances.
Integrating this second set of numbers with those above provides evidence that while the Jays scored many runs with the long ball, the approach of swinging for the fences may have contributed negatively on their overall production. The pull-happy, grip-and-rip approach of the Jays hitters may have resulted in fewer base runners overall.
It will be interesting to observe the impact that new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer has on the team. Research investigating the impact hitting coaches have on team performance has found that Seitzer is among the best. Early reports suggest that he will be focusing on moving Jays' hitters away from the all-or-none approach of previous seasons, to one that encourages using the whole field and being well-rounded hitters.
2014 Outlook
The Jays are set to try and make right on the 2013 season. The core group of players assembled for 2014 is basically the same as last year. While concerns remain about the rotation, and production at second base, this team should improve from 2013. A lot of things went wrong last season, and we should avoid overreacting to a bad season. With all that said, I suspect we are headed for another middling Blue Jays season.
My prediction: 84 wins and 3rd place in the AL East.
