I would think that the Blue Jays will have to make a move before tomorrow's game, since, without Jose Reyes, Maicer Izturis will have to play and we will be without a utility infielder. Maybe Munenori Kawasaki is on his way to Tampa Bay?
I'm trying not to imagine the whining when they send Erik Kratz back down for Kawasaki (or Getz).
We had such a nice, injury free spring training too. Now Casey Janssen is on the DL (as well has J.A. Happ). I hope Jose will only be out a few days. We really do need him in the lineup.
I think the Jays should have had Reyes rest on the weekend, instead of playing in Montreal, but that's easy to say afterwards.
So much for Opening Day optimism and starting fresh. Realism slapped Blue Jays fans in the face even before the end of the first inning in the first game of the 2014 when Toronto starting shortstop Jose Reyes was pulled from the game after his first at bat. Later, it was revealed that Reyes was suffering "left hamstring tightness," seemingly a continuation of the pain that he first felt during a March 22 spring training game. After it was revealed that Reyes was going to get an MRI on the hamstring, quotes from manager John Gibbons made it sound like the club was prepared to wait for results of the tests before deciding what to do. However, with two catchers and an outfielder on the bench, the Blue Jays really had little choice.
On Monday evening, ESPN's Jayson Stark reported that sources have told him that Reyes would have to be transferred to the disabled list. Later that evening, Sportsnet's Shi Davidi confirmed the story, revealing that the Blue Jays had indeed placed Jose Reyes on the 15-day disabled list, and that tiny Jonathan Diaz's contract would be selected from the Buffalo Bisons.
#BlueJays indeed placing Jose Reyes on DL. Not sure about corresponding move yet
Diaz was not on the 40-man roster, but since Matt Tuiasosopo's spot was not filled after his outright at the end of spring, no corresponding move was needed for the Jays to add him.
Jonathan Diaz is a 28-year-old infielder from Florida, and was the Blue Jays' 12th-round choice in the 2006 draft. He did not get to the major leagues in his first stint with the Blue Jays organization, but managed to get into five games with the Boston Red Sox after he signed with them as a minor league free agent after the 2012 season. He spent the majority of the 2013 season with the triple-A Pawtucket Red Sox, hitting just .253/.358/.316 with a couple homers and 11 doubles in 399 plate appearances. He, like Ryan Goins, is light-hitting, but is sharp with the glove. Diaz appeared mostly as a second baseman last year with Pawtucket, but spent significant time at short and third as well. As a righty, Diaz might see platoon at short with lefty Goins with Maicer Izturis at second base against southpaws.
I am as disappointed and saddened as any Blue Jays fan with the Reyes news, but I am also very happy that fans can finally see Jonathan Diaz in a Blue Jays uniform. Diaz and his then-fiancee (now wife) was involved in a t-bone collision when their taxi driver ran a red light, leading to multiple injuries for his wife and concussion symptoms for Diaz. I am very happy for them that he's finally made the team. I will always have a soft spot in my heart for Jonathan as he is the only player I've ever met who was shorter than me--I had to tilt my head down a bit to talk to him! Diaz is officially listed as a very, very generous 5'9. From these pictures from the Jays' photo day during spring training, see if you can guess which one is Jonathan Diaz:
Looks like photographer Kim Klement of USA Today Sports didn't bother adjusting camera height between plaers when taking these shots.
Diaz will be wearing #1 on his back with the Blue Jays (after wearing #76 with Boston last year), and he told Neil Davidson of the Canadian Press that it would be an honour for him to be wearing Tony Fernandez's old number because "he was an unbelievable shortstop."
Of course, the big story is Jose Reyes's durability, and whether it was smart for the Blue Jays to play the oft-injured shortstop for two nights in Montreal if he already had some issues with his hamstring. Certainly, if the Jays wanted to be absolutely careful, they wouldn't have chanced it; however, if it was a lingering issue than he likely would've aggravated it somewhere else, especially since the team's first 10 games would be on turf at Tropicana Field and the Rogers Centre.
The current injury to Reyes certainly doesn't look as severe as the ankle sprain he suffered 10 games into the 2013 season, so hopefully he won't be gone more than the required 15 days.
After being pulled from the first inning of the Opening Day game against the Rays, the Blue Jays' starting shortstop Jose Reyes has been placed on the 15-day disabled list and is awaiting an MRI to see the extent of the injury to his left hamstring that had bothered him since March 22. Bisons infielder Jonathan Diaz was added to the 40-man roster and was called up to aid the major league team.
After being robbed of a base hit by a diving Desmond Jennings leading off the Opening Day game between the Blue Jays and Rays, Blue Jays shortstop Jose Reyes was pulled from the game and was replaced at shortstop by Ryan Goins with what was later announced to be left hamstring tightness. It was a surprise to not see Reyes run out to his defensive position in the bottom of the first, as he did not show obvious signs of pain as he ran to first or when he jogged off the field.
It's tough to see him being pulled so early into the game, but it's better than to see him rolling around the ground in pain like he did in game 10 last year. Hopefully the Blue Jays were just being extra careful with Reyes's nagging injury.
It was just a week ago that Jose Reyes was sent to get an MRI on his hamstring, which was diagnosed at the time to have been a mild strain. Reyes returned to the Jays' spring training lineup for the series in Montreal after missing six days in recovery. He played two partial games against the Mets this weekend, striking out in all three at bats on Saturday.
The first at bat of the Rays' 2014 season was David Price against Jose Reyes, and it was a worthy beginning. Price placed a sinker on the inside corner for a called strike, and then brought a cutter inside a bit too far for a ball. The third pitch was an outside fastball that Reyes reached for and flared the other way into short left-center field. Desmond Jennings had to range a long way forward and to his left, and he capped his run off with a full-speed diving grab. Price just clapped a bit, and gave a quiet smile that seemed to say, "I know the defense I have playing behind me, and I like it."
A groundout by Melky Cabrera brought up Jose Bautista, one of the most dangerous righties in the league. Price started the at bat by placing a 95 mph fastball at the bottom of the zone for a called strike, and then brought the fastball in on Bautista's hands for a whiff. The third pitch was a ball, but Price put the Toronto slugger away with a beautiful low cutter that seemed to have more vertical break than that pitch usually does.
In my preview of Toronto starter R.A. Dickey, I said to expect more wild pitches/passed balls than runs. That was definitively not the case, and it's both a credit to Josh Thole (who only let one past him by my unofficial count), and the Rays offense, which had Dickey's number from the beginning. Wil Myers got the party started when he managed to stay back on a first-pitch knuckleball and send it the other way to the wall in the big part of right-center field for a double. Evan Longoria brought Myers home by reaching out for a knuckler and hooking it up the middle for a single.
In the next inning, Jennings whiffed at two identical pitches that floated up and in on him. The third pitch was also up, but it didn't move in, and DJ lined it against the wall in the left-center gap for a double of his own. Matt Joyce and David DeJesus walked while Yunel Escobar and Jose Molina made outs. Myers brought home two of the baserunners with a single up the middle.
In the third inning, Longoria was able work a walk, advance to second on a groundout, and then advance to third on a wild pitch. With two outs, Jennings also walked, which set up an interesting play. Matt Joyce hit a fly ball to left center, and both runners tagged up and tried to advance. Both were safe, but there was a close play at second. Joe Maddon says that he never minds a player being over-aggressive, and Jennings has speed to burn, but I wonder if it would have been smarter to bluff and stay at first. Had Jennings been thrown out, it would have surely been before Longoria reached home, and it would have taken a run off the board.
The Rays tacked on a few more runs in the bottom of the fifth after a hard slide from James Loney broke up a possible one-out double play and put runners at the corners, with Jennings at first. With two strikes, Matt Joyce got a knuckleball that didn't knuckle, leading Dewayne Statts, who may still be a bit rusty to exclaim, "There goes the runner, and a hit deep to right. THAT BABY'S GONNA GO! No it isn't. It's off the top of the wall." He can be excused for thinking it was gone, as the pitch really was hammered. Joyce hit it hard enough, in fact, that Bautista had a chance to nab Jennings at the plate, and he took that chance well. The ball arrived at home first, but Jennings made an incredibly athletic popup slide and snuck his hand over Thole's tag.
In the bottom of the eighth inning, a high chop by Myers turned into an infield hit with two throwing errors. Myers was eventually able to come all the way home, and the runner ahead of him scored easily. Ben Zobrist walked for the third time and, after some aggressive baserunning, came home on a Loney sacrifice fly.
If Dickey disappointed, Price was every bit the ace we expect him to be. He threw his fastball 60% of the time, and it ranged from 91 to 95 mph. He was able to locate it on both sides of the plate at will, and the Jays hitters never seemed like they were able to get comfortable. After the fastball, Price went to his changeup and his cutter equally often, with his curve decidedly as the fourth option.
Although his pitching performance was masterful, Price finally showed a crack in the eighth inning when he allowed a single to Maicer Izturis, and then a home run to straight center by Blue Jays pinch hitter Erik Kratz. The home run pitch was an outside fastball away that maybe didn't quite get far enough away, but hitters don't get around on pitch very often. Price stayed in struck out Ryan Goins, but with the middle of the order up and Price at 102 pitches, Joe Maddon pulled him in favor of Joel Peralta. Price appeared unhappy to not have been able to finish the game himself, but the crowd appreciated his effort. Peralta was up to the task, and he made both Cabrera and Bautista look silly.
Some other notes:
In the bottom of the second inning, Ben Zobrist hit a popup on the infield and Bret Lawrie made a routine catch. I want to give some props to David DeJesus though, who sprinted for all he was worth to make sure he would have scored from second if the ball had been dropped.
When David Price first learned his cutter, it was a one-trick pitch. He would place it just off the back door against righties and try to coax it over the plate for a called strike. Now he appears to have much more confidence in the pitch. He and Molina weren't afraid to move the cutter around, and they located it both at the bottom of the zone and in on the hands of righties. I'm not saying this is a significant change, or that it will make Price better -- it's just something I noticed that we might want to keep an eye on as we see more of Price.
With two outs already in the fifth inning and a runner on first base, Yunel Escobar scooped a grounder, shuffled to step on second, and then fired to first to complete the "double play." It's good to see he's in midseason form already . . .
After running to first in his first at bat, Jose Reyes was removed from the game with hamstring tightness. Ouch for Toronto.
Price seemed to attack Dionner Navarro (playing DH!) with a lot of changeups. Interesting that we're treating him as an aggressive fastball hitter. That was never how I thought of Navi while he was here.
In the bottom of the seventh, with the Rays already leading by two, Esmil Rogers did a bad job of holding James Loney on first, so Loney stole second. It looked pretty easy for the big first-baseman. Later on in the inning, though, he continued his aggressive baserunning and was thrown at at the plate.
In the eighth inning, David DeJesus was hit in the shin by a pitch. After what seemed to be a painful dive back to first, he was lifted in favor of Brandon Guyer. Hopefully he's okay.
Note to Rays pitchers: Please do not throw Jose Bautista the same pitch in the same spot twice in a row. It doesn't matter how good you think that pitch is, he will hit it. In the fourth inning, Price tried to bust Bautista in on the hands twice, and the second one ended up bouncing off the upper deck only a few feet foul.
Brandon Gomes, y'all. It's not just the results (two strikeouts, one single, one groundout). It's how far away from his pitches guys are when they whiff.
The Blue Jays will place shortstop Jose Reyes on the 15-day disabled list with a hamstring strain, according to Sportsnet's Shi Davidi. Reyes is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Tuesday.
Reyes, dealt with hamstring issues this spring, but the team thought he was ready to return to game action.
He wasn't.
The 30-year-old former All Star missed nearly half of his first season in Toronto last year after a very painful-looking injury as he slid into second base. In just 93 games, he was exactly what they were hoping he would be, but his absence is incredibly frustrating for everyone involved. He hit .296/.355/.427 with 10 home runs and 15 stolen bases in those 93 games, so it's not as if he's lost his touch. Those numbers line up almost well with his career batting line of .292/.342/.439.
Toronto will call up infielder Jonathan Diaz to replace Reyes on the roster.
Diaz, 28, spent most of his career with Toronto, though he played over 100 games in the Red Sox farm system last year. In over 3,000 minor league plate appearances, Diaz hit .230/.358/.297. That's a pretty odd batting line that shows excellent plate discipline and next to no pop at all. He played four games for the Red Sox last year, but he has yet to record his first major league hit.
So who had Jonathan Diaz as the first infield call up this year?
I'm not really thrilled with Diaz coming up....if he and Ryan Goins are both in the lineup, we are punting two spots on offense. The rest of the lineup might be pretty good with the bat, but I don't think any team can handle having two guys that can't hit their weight.
Diaz had a pretty rough spring training, hitting just .125/276/.125 and making 3 errors. The errors aren't typical of him, he's said to be a good fielder.
I was wondering if Diaz was the call up because the Jays intended to sign Stephen Drew or pick up somebody that had been DFAed or opted out of a contract, like Ryan Roberts. Then Diaz could be sent back through waivers without worry.
I'll admit to being kind of pissed off at Alex for not getting us some better depth for the infield, Jose Reyes does have a history filled with injuries. So does Brett Lawrie. And Ryan Goins isn't exactly a sure thing, so I'd have liked him to have found someone better than Diaz to fill in.
We tend to think the Jays have a good offense but it's pretty fragile. If Reyes is out for more than 15 days and if Diaz continues to be his replacement, I can't see it working out.
You can bet on so many different things at Vegas. Here are the odds on the first manager to be fired.
John Gibbons 2/1
Kirk Gibson 5/2
Ned Yost 5/1
Terry Collins 5/1
Bo Porter 7/1
Mike Scioscia 12/1
I don't know. If there are firings in the Blue Jays near future I think it would be GM first, then manager. But that's just a guess. Also I think if there are firings, the team has to go outside to fill the spots. Anyway, it isn't something I'd bet on. betting on someone to lose a job that they love is just too morbid.
Dirk talks about why he's no longer on Sportsnet. It is an interesting read. Rogers employees do have to walk a strange little tightrope, as much as they might say or think that they are allowed to criticise their company, there are many many people above them on the corporate ladder,
Pitchers (13) Barnes, Danny Boyd, Matt Browning, Wil Champlin, Kramer Cole, Taylor Girodo, Chad Hernandez, Jesse Jackson, Justin McFarland, Blake Nieves, Efrain Norris, Daniel Sikula, Arik White, Ben
Catchers (2) Chung, Derrick Reeves, Mike
Infielders (7) Flores, Jorge Guerrero, Emilio Hobson, K.C. Lopes, Christian Patterson, Kevin Pierre, Gustavo Sweeny, Kellen Outfielders (5) Baligod, Nick Knecht, Marcus Newman, Matt Pompey, Dalton Smith, Jr., Dwight
This past Friday, the new MLB/MLBPA drug policy was announced. Whether Colome getting pinched had anything to do with that is unclear. It probably would have gone down in a similar fashion anyway. I agree with the basis of strengthening punishment of cheaters. However, the lead-in begs this question: What does a drug suspension change have to do with draft prep?
While Badler's tweet shines a questioning light on Tampa prospects, I'm not much more sold on Toronto's. It seems any time there is a group of players getting suspended, one team or the other is getting spiked. (Since Jeff Samaradzija is supposedly being monitored by the Blue Jays, draw your own conclusion.)
I think the new drug policy ought to have more punishment (in a way) toward the club. They lose the suspended player for an extended period of time, which is good. However, they get the money and the 40-man roster spot refunded, and lose no draft picks. I'm not sure how to 'apply evenly' before the fact, but if the team is aware of the illegal goings-on, or (even worse) is a party to it, I'd like the league to have a sort of nuclear option. I'm not sure how, but I'm not convinced the player would be the only cheater.
Perhaps something could be tied to draft round, or signing bonus. If the team signs a kid from the Dominican for a $10,000 bonus, and his trainer has been feeding him illegal substances, I'm not out for blood. However, if the team is using the club physician to inject HGH (not that that's what happened here), yeah. I want the front office punished. Rather severely.
***
Tyler Beede continues to be wild. His underwhelming start to the SEC conference season is looking to make Brady Aiken and Tyler Kolek rather rich young kids.
Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Rodon righted the ship this week. Trea Turner hit homers in three straight games, but none were off of Friday starters.
While the top of the draft appears a bit topsy-turvy, it sounds the draft is rather impressive well into the second round. Some (pitching?) talent figures to be available.
2013 Second-rounder Rob Zastryzny will open in High-A Daytona with Albert Almora. Third-rounder Jacob Hannemann starts in Kane County. For now. Josh will have the rest of the system rosters over the next couple of days. One of these days, I'm going to read up on expert commentary and mock drafts for the June draft. Today is not that day. Looking at the rosters of the full season affiliates, it appears the Cubs' brass is serious about upgrading the pitching.
Even better, not only do they seem serious about it, they seem to have a solid strategy. That doesn't require the assistance of a veterinarian.
Drew Hutchison had a very nice start. 5.1 innings, 3 hits, 3 walks with 4 strikeouts. He threw 83 pitches, 50 strikes. I'm happy with Gibby for taking him out at 83 pitches. No use pushing it in his first start of the year.
Aaron Loup pitched 1.2 scoreless innings, coming into the game with 2 on and 1 out and getting out of it. Then pitching a clean 7th. Steve Delabar gave up a couple of hits and a run in his inning. And Sergio Santos made his first save of the season a little more exciting than we would have liked. He gave up 2 doubles, a walk, and a double steal, in between striking out the side in the 9th. We could have done without the excitement.
We got all the offense we needed in the first inning, when Adam Lind hit a 3-run homer, to straightaway center field. Jonathan Diaz drove in our other run with his first major league hit.
It was a particularly good day for Diaz, with the RBI single, a walk and stolen base. He had a little slip on a ground ball but he was lucky that the batter wasn't running hard down the line.
Navarro threw out Matt Joyce trying to steal in the first inning. I think I'm going to like Navarro.
Jays of the Day: Hutchison (.158 WPA), Line (.270), Loup (.094) and I'm going to give one to Diaz too.
No Suckage Jays, Edwin had the low mark at -.066.
The two GameThreads had 2018 comments, thanks all. Pikachu and Bowling Guy tie for the lead. Good work you two.
Rays fall to the Jays 4-2, but the bullpen put up four scoreless innings.
The Rays have scheduled an announcement for noon! Could it be the annual contract extension? Chris Archer, Alex Cobb, and Wil Myers all come to mind.
Speculate below!
***
The first loss of the 2014 season. It’s done, it’s over with, it’s out of their systems. Alex Cobb had an off night, and the offense couldn’t get anything done against the Blue Jays’ starting pitcher, Drew Hutchison. The team was one for eleven with runners in scoring position throughout the night as the Rays fell to the Jays 4-2.
The Rays bullpen looked great last night, though! Rays’ relievers combined for four innings pitched, allowing only one hit (Ramos) and a walk (Lueke), while striking out four.
As mentioned in Erik’s recap, Heath Bell was sharp in his Rays debut. Per BrooksBaseball, Bell threw seventeen pitches, eleven for strikes, and was using his curveball primarily (nine pitches), but also mixed in his fastball and changeup (four pitches each). There wasn’t much going for Bell’s velocity, as he only reached 92.3 MPH max on his fastball. Bell did manage to induce two groundouts and a flyout to first base against the three batters he faced.
For your webgem viewing pleasure, here’s Longoria making the play of the night to rob the Melkman of a hit.
The play was one of two reviewed of the night and the players had no idea what to do while it was being reviewed since it was the third out of the inning.
#Rays players not sure what to do; umps waved them back out of dugout but they were just milling about.
Tonight, Matt Moore takes the mound against Mark Buehrle at 7:10 PM for game three of the series.
Kim DeJesus tried pulling off an April Fools Day joke yesterday, and if you weren’t paying attention to why David wasn’t in the lineup, or what day it was, you may have believed her for a split second.
Wow that was a short run in Tampa! Dave just got traded to the Dodgers">@Dodgers ... thankfully I can show him where all the juice bars are here
The Bulls starting rotation was announced yesterday and it will be Karns, Romero, Andriese, Montgomery and Erik Bedard, per @TBTimes_Rays.
Sean-Rod and Heath Bell, along with Raymond, visited the twelve lucky babies who were born on March 31st at Bayfront. Their families will all be receiving four rays tickets to each future Rays opening day as part of the Rays promotion with Bayfront. So awesome!
- It was announced yesterday that Clayton Kershaw will begin a 2-3 week rehab regimen before being re-examined by the Dodgers to determine a timetable for his return. Jonathan Bernhardt of Sports on Earth takes a look at some injuries from the spring that will be hurting teams the most.
- Spring Training attendance for all of MLB was up 7.3% in 2014 from the previous year.
- Looking for new people to follow on Twitter? Here’s a list of the 200 must-follow accounts for MLB fans.
-The Red Sox met with President Obama yesterday and Jonny Gomes had quite the outfit (if you haven’t already seen it, not sure how you could miss it, but JONNY GOMES)
The .500 Blue Jays face off against the Tampa Bay Rays in the third game of a four game series tonight at 7:00 pm. Left hander Matt Moore will go up against fellow southpaw Mark Buehrle as both teams try to win their second game of the young season. The 24-year-old Moore started 27 games last year, ending up with an ERA of 3.29, although his xFIP was 4.32 thanks to a low BABIP and HR/FB rate. Although he averages almost a strike out per inning, he's faced control issues in the past few season which resulted in a 4.55 BB/9 in 2013.
His pitch usage changes a lot based on what's working for him, but he features a low-90's fastball, an effective slurve-type pitch and a changeup:
Moore's changeup has become his best pitch and is thrown almost exclusively against right handed hitters, which likely explains why he has no clear platoon splits. The pitch is so effective because it looks extremely similar to his four-seam fastball, but has a 7mph difference in velocity and is kept down in the zone.
It's probably best to just avoid having Adam Lind go up against the lefty, regardless of Moore's splits. It's the third game of the season and the lineup is already disgusting.
I decided to bring "Find The Link" back after a few people asked for it in the last preview. I'll keep a tally, similar to the way I did last year and the winner will claim a few thousand internet points.
Find the link between Matt Moore and an 82-day-long battle in World War II.
Post your answer in the comments below and make sure it's not a reply to someone else's comment so there's no conflict with who answered first. Enjoy the game!
Unfortunately, those projections never materialized on the field. Reyes fell to injury, Dickey struggled to adapt his knuckleball to the new environment. Buehrle showed signs of decline and Josh Johnson was an unmitigated disaster, posting a 6.20 ERA while trying to pitch through an elbow injury. Instead of competing for the division title, the Blue Jays dropped from their accustomed spot at fourth and finished last in the division for the first time since 2004. They entered the offseason in a bad place. The deals they made prior to the 2013 season had pushed their payroll up to almost $120 million and left them with little financial flexibility to replace the dead-weight that brought down their playoff hopes. They wavered on the idea of signing several free agent pitchers to upgrade their weak starting rotation, but ultimately choose to stand pat, content to hope that a few key players could rebound and the competitor they tried to build for 2013 would emerge a year late.
The only upgrade the Toronto managed this winter was behind the plate, where they beat out several teams in the bidding for Dioner Navarro. The Venezuelan catcher has been in the league for 10-years, which makes it easy to overlook the fact that he is only 30-years-old. His career at the plate has been a mixed bag, but he delivered the best hitting performance of his career with the Cubs last season. Navarro hit .300/.365/.492 in 266 plate appearance in 2013, well-above average for any position and a monstrous offensive season by the standard of major league catchers. He has always been far more effective against lefties in his career, but the gap was not as severe last season and his .279/.333/.430 against righties might be a sign that he is heading toward a late career renaissance. Even if that is not the case, former starter J.P. Arencibia did not set a high bar for offensive performance at the position during his tenure in Toronto.
Apart from Navarro, the only other player the Blue Jays added to make the Opening Day active roster is third-string catcher, Erik Kratz. The Blue Jays picked up several notable minor-league depth pieces in Dan Johnson, Chris Getz, Jonathan Diaz, Liam Hendriks and the recently-added Juan Francisco, but it would be difficult to find another team in recent years that has done so little to remake their roster after tying to build a competitor and watching it fall completely flat.
If there is good new for the Blue Jays, it is that they did not lose any important pieces either. Rajai Davis is the most valuable player to have left Toronto this winter and at 1.2 fWAR, his production is hardly irreplaceable. Josh Johnson was never the pitcher the Blue Jays though they were getting and the version of Johnson Toronto fans saw will certainly not be missed.
Brett Lawrie has not quite lived up to the hype he received as a top-100 prospect, but at 24-years-old he still has plenty of time to get there. His glove has been an asset at third base, saving the Blue Jays about 12 runs over his 276 games in the majors, according to Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), but his bat has hovered just under league-average to this point. He has shown the ability to avoid strikeouts but his walk rate has been slightly below average and he has not hit for much power. There are reasons to believe that could change, however. He reduced his swing-rate on pitches out of the zone between 2012 and 2013 and if that indicates a growing ability to seeking about pitches he can drive, Lawrie could take a step forward soon. Combined his plus glove, a slight bump in power and walk rate could turn Lawrie into something close to the star his minor league career promised.
2012 National League Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey was practically two different pitchers in 2013. In the first half of the season, he posted a 4.69 ERA. In the second half, that number dropped to 3.57. Dickey had a harder time controlling the knuckleball in his first few months as a Blue Jays, resulting an elevated walk rate and a reduced strikeout rate. When he was able to get hitters to chase, they made more solid contact than they would later in the year, as evidenced by his higher ground ball and line drive rates from the first half. His strikeout and walk numbers in the second half were much closer to the ones that helped carry him to the Cy Young. The rough Opening Day aside, Dickey should be much better this season for the Blue Jays. He will probably never recapture the magic of his 2012 season, but he should be a quality starter who gives them above-average results on a consistent basis.
Best Case Scenario
Everyone is a year older and Jose Reyes has already landed on the DL, but much of the optimism about the 2013 team should still apply to this group. They have power, speed and on-base ability in the lineup. They have a mix of young players with promise and veteran stars. If the core of Reyes, Bautista, Encarnacion, Rasmus and Lind all stay (relatively) healthy and play up to their potential, Melky Cabrera bounces back and starts to hit again, and a few young players step up, the lineup could compete with the other powerhouse offenses in the division. The starting rotation is the bigger question mark, but Dickey and Beuhrle are both bounce-back candidates and Brandon Morrow could finally harness his quality stuff and become the quality middle-to-top of the rotation arm his peripherals have suggested he could be at times. The bullpen has been one of the major strengths of this club in recent years and it should remain an advantage in 2014. If all of those elements come together perfectly, Toronto still has playoff contender upside. It would take at least three teams ahead of them falling part for this team to walk away with the division title, but a Wild Card run is possible.
What Could Go Wrong
Of course, all of the issues that sabotaged the 2013 season are still present this year. The starting rotation is not good. Even if Beuhrle and Dickey preform to their potential, there is little proven depth and far too many players who are fringe major leaguers in line to pitch substantial innings. The offense has the potential to be a strength but it is built around a group of players who have trouble staying healthy. Just two games have been played and Jose Reyes is already on the DL. Key contributors like Brett Lawrie, Jose Bautista and Colby Rasmus have also struggled to stay healthy recently and the multitude of minor league hitters Toronto acquired this offseason are a basically an acknowledgment of the fact that this team lacks quality minor-leage depth on offense as well. This team would not look so bad if it did not play in such an ultra-competitive division, but with the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox and Orioles all looking stronger, another last place finish is a good bet.
Final Thoughts
The Blue Jays may not have had many options this season. Realistically, the team probably cannot spend the type of money it would have taken to revamp the rotation, patch the holes in the offense and build up enough depth to turn them into a true contender. Selling off the win-now pieces they bought heading into the 2013 season might have been a decent option, but if they had taken that path, they would have been selling low on many of those players. The Blue Jays are not a terrible club, but they almost certainly won't win in the AL East with this group. At some point, Toronto will need to become sellers and not buying may just be the first step in that direction. If that is the case, this offseason's inactivity is justifiable, and may even prove to be the smart move.
Yesterday we learned that Eduardo Nunez was designated for assignment to make way for Yangervis Solarte on the 40-man roster. Some might say that our long national nightmare is finally over, but it might be a little too early to celebrate this glorious roster move. After designating Nunez for assignment, the Yankees still have 10 days to either trade him, release him, or put him on waivers. So if they can't find a taker for the 26-year-old infielder, there's a possibility he could still end up back in the system, and we'll then live in constant fear that he might return.
There are a few teams that could use Nunez, and therefore, as silly as it may sound, could actually trade for him. The Rangers, Tigers, and Blue Jays all have big problems with their infield. Jurickson Profar will miss most of the first half with a torn shoulder muscle, so Texas will have to rely on the likes of Josh Wilson and Donnie Murphy at second base now. Jose Iglesias broke his legs and now the Tigers have decided to use Alex Gonzalez and Andrew Romine. The Blue Jays just lost Jose Reyes to yet another hamstring injury. How long before any of these teams start looking at Stephen Drew as a potential option? If they want to avoid the draft pick compensation (though Toronto is protected), Nunez could be a cheaper alternative.
The Yankees are unlikely to flat out release him. Even if they don't see him as a major league option anymore, it would be silly to simply get rid of him for absolutely nothing. While the Yankees did their best to acquire as much depth as possible this offseason, Brendan Ryan's injury has kind of ruined their depth chart at shortstop. Ryan was supposed to be the backup to Derek Jeter with Dean Anna providing extra depth in Triple-A. Now that Anna made the Opening Day roster, the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders don't exactly have an everyday shortstop. There are rumblings that Zelous Wheeler is their man right now and Addison Maruszak is not with the team.
They have probably known for awhile now that they were going to get rid of Nunez, the delay was just a whole lot of strategy. As much as most of us dislike Eduardo Nunez, he's still someone who would likely be claimed. The first few days of the season is the perfect time to sneak someone through waivers. At this point, everyone has set their Opening Day rosters and made their adjustments, so it's unlikely that anyone has an open 40-man roster spot for him. As much as we all just want him gone, if the Yankees don't trade him, I feel like he'll somehow make it through waivers.
I don't want Nunez on my team, I don't even want him in my organization, but the reality is that there's a chance he might not go away, it could even make sense to keep him around. Still, if someone wants him, the Yankees should unload him in a hurry. We have 10 more days to think about this!
The guy on the right was right-on about Jose Reyes (video obviously made before he got hurt). Jeremy Larter, Dennis Trainor & Robbie Moses from Just Passing Through star in this comedic bit.
It has been alleged that Mr. Rasmus cannot handle the high fastball, but does the evidence support that claim?
As readers of Bluebird Banter may or may or not know, I have a virtually limitless quantity of axes to grind with the Blue Jays broadcast team. To go too far into the issue would be far more entertaining for me than you, but ultimately it begins with a consistent disregard for irrefutable facts and the complete misapplication of even the most basic statistics. The constant mispronunciation of names as well as the unending fawning over the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays also definitely does not help in the scheme of things. There are other issues, but, as I said before, my rantings are more interesting to me than they are to you, so I'll leave it at that.
When watching baseball games I often find myself asking what exactly Buck and Pat are basing their statements on, because they tend to make claims that I would describe and both bold and unfounded. Something that has caught my attention early this season is the claim that teams have been attacking Colby Rasmus with the high fastball and that he has normally struggled with that pitch. Like many left-handers Rasmus does tend to be more of a low-ball hitter, but that assertion also struck me as the sort of thing that could have simply been pulled out of thin air.
In order to test the theory that Rasmus can't handle the fastball up high, I went to Brooks Baseball to check it out. Looking at it one way there might be something to the theory. First off he doesn't get a lot of hits on hard stuff, the following zone profile does reinforce the fact the Colby is a low ball hitter:
Additionally, we can see that Rasmus whiffs a tonne on the hard stuff up:
This is some fairly powerful stuff, perhaps even enough that we can score one for Pat and Buck. However, the astute observer will have noticed that all the numbers for Colby struggling with high fastballs are based on very small sample sizes. That's because the high fastball has not really been a tool pitchers have used to attack Rasmus very often. The following zone profile shows that he is much more likely to see hard pitches low and away:
Moreover, even when pitchers do give Colby something high and hard to deal with, the swing rate picture below shows he does a pretty good job at laying off.
At the end of the day, the best metric for evaluating this phenomenon is raw whiff rate. We know that on a per swing basis Colby is far worse at hitting high fastballs, but we also know that he is more disciplined in terms of laying off of them. His total whiff rate tells us if a pitcher has a better chance getting the whiff from Rasmus up top or down low on a fastball.
And the winner is... the Blue Jays broadcast team! If you are looking to get Colby out with a fastball, you should be looking up, especially up and away.
My experience as a Jays fan who enjoys dabbling in advanced statistics has made me incredibly jaded about any statement made by Pat Tabler or Buck Martinez, but that doesn't mean they are always wrong. I would make the claim they are wrong more often than not, but that's exactly the sort of open-ended unprovable claim that I'm trying to crusade against. Rather than turn myself into a hypocrite, I will instead tip my hat. In the case of Colby Rasmus and the high heat I was wrong to doubt the infinite wisdom of the Blue Jays broadcast team. This time I should have holstered my arsenal of numbers and snark and took them at their word.
Mark Buehrle worked 8 2/3, striking out 11 and limiting the Rays to four hits, while Matt Moore was good but not good enough, allowing two runs on six hits and walking three (only three?) in his 5 2/3. Control was a problem n his first outing of the season.
In highlights, Longo again reminded all of us that he's still good at baseball, while Logan Forsythe notched two of the four hits on the night. Hey, that platoon thing works! For the full recap, head here.
If the Blue Jays win today, it will be their first road series win against the Rays since April 6-8th, 2007. Come on, offense.
***
The major news of yesterday was Chris Archer's six-year contract with two club options, which guarantees Archer to earn at least $25.5 million in the first six years of the contract. The Rays, Archer, his teammates and all fans were understandably thrilled at the announcement. He seems like a really, really great guy - definitely the kind that Maddon would want on his team for as long as possible.
When the Rays scheduled the announcement, a contract extension was expected, but many wondered if it were Cobb or Myers signing a long term deal. Marc Topkin caught up with both:
Asked Wednesday if he had been approached by the Rays, Cobb said, "I plead the fifth."
About the benefits of Archer's deal, Cobb said, "I can't say how it would feel to be financially secure, but I'm sure it's a pretty good feeling. ... I think everybody would like to feel that way. Maybe it's in the cards in the future."
Among leading position player possibilities, OF Wil Myers said he would be open to discussing a deal - "Anybody would love to talk extensions" - but there are no indications anything is in play.
***
Another year, and Dickie V is still monitoring attendance for all of us:
- Nate Karns was named the opening day starter for Durham, over Enny Romero and Erik Bedard. They are joined by Matt Andriese and (surprisingly) Mike Montgomery, who the Rays have not given up on just yet. Montgomery had been pitching out of relief last fall.
- Per Topkin, there is mutual interest between the Rays and Chris Gimenez on a minor league deal, should he clear waivers. Gimenez was claimed and then designated by the Rangers earlier this week.
- Injury news: David DeJesus's bruised foot is well enough that he could have entered last night's game, and Ryan Hanigan fought off the flu to enter Game 3. Both are probable to start this evening. Elsewhere, Yu Darvish will come off the DL Sunday, just in time to face the Rays. Joy.
- Sean Rodriguez might be late to tonight's game...
- Fangraphs projected the Top 50 propsects by WAR using their ZiPS/Steamer regression, with Hak-Ju Lee cracking the top twenty, and two names you might not have expected rounding out the final tier: Curt Casali and Vince Belnome.
- I don't have a subscription to Florida Trend so I can only read the first paragraph, but apparently the Editor's Page commented on the ill-fated destiny of baseball in Florida. I'm not sure that's how tv contracts work...
- Chris Moran, at Beyond the Box Score, took a look at the 3-0 swing, noting that Tampa Bay atypically cut back in 2013.
- A lovely little tale over at Hardball Times about the marriage of beer and baseball. Which reminds me, another enjoyable edition of Hatfield's Corner is live, on the adventures of attending Game 2. Check it out.
Brandon Morrow has been nearly a really good pitcher for a pretty long time, despite the fact that he's only 29 years old. Back in 2010, for instance, he struck out over 28% of the batters he faced (a ridiculous number). His 4.49 ERA lagged far behind his spellbinding peripherals, though, making him a hot wait-till-next-year commodity for the Jays. Well, next year came, and the same thing happened: 3.53 xFIP, 4.72 ERA. Wait till next year.
In 2012 Morrow got less overpowering, only striking out around 21% of the batters he faced (that's still respectable), but he also managed a 2.96 ERA over 124.2 innings, and demonstrated for about the zillionth time that when you have a pitcher -- even one that you think is some special outlier -- his peripherals are a better predictor of his future ERA than his past ERA is.
The 2013 season went very badly for Morrow: 50 innings of bad baseball and a nerve injury in his throwing arm. Still, even only looking at his pitches from last season, it's easy to see the potential for dominance.
Morrow's fastball averaged 93.5 mph, and touched the high 90s at times. His slider, averaging 87 mph is a hard out pitch. Over the course of Morrow's career, both lefties and righties have whiffed at the pitch nearly 40% of the time that they've swung (according to Brooks Baseball). His splitter falls off the table, and with everything else that hitters need to worry about, it doesn't seem fair that Morrow can also go to a legitimate curve, just to break up the pattern.
There's a chance Morrow can't throw strikes today, and that Matt Joyce and Co. get him out of the game with 110 pitches in the third inning. There's also a chance for a no-hitter every time he takes the mound.
The sold-out crowd at Rogers Centre will have something extra to cheer for Friday evening: Roy Halladay will be back in town to throw out the ceremonial first pitch in the Blue Jays' Home Opener. Halladay gave the good news on his Twitter account (@RoyHalladay) this afternoon:
Just landed in Toronto!! Lot of great memories! Invited by the Jays to be a part of the Home Opener! pic.twitter.com/P5ZmXjzDjt
"Doc" was drafted by Toronto in the first round back in 1995 and he made his Rogers Centre (then SkyDome) debut on September 27, 1998 facing the Tigers. Of course, we all remember what happened in that game: Halladay no-hit the Tigers through 8.2 innings before Bobby Higginson slammed a solo shot to end the no-hit bid. He still won anyway, leading the 1998 Jays to their 88th win--no Jays team have won more games since. Halladay's last game in Blue Jays colours at the Rogers Centre came on September 25, 2009 against the Mariners, throwing a seven-hit complete game shutout, racking up nine strikeouts and walking none. Of course, Halladay did return to Toronto with the Phillies on Canada Day weekend in 2011, getting the win over the Jays in a complete game.
Following Roy Halladay's ceremonial first pitch will be Dustin McGowan's actual first pitch. The injury-plagued McGowan has only pitched seven games in April in his career, the last one being on April 30, 2008. He will also be making his first start since September 26, 2011. We shouldn't expect him to go too deep into the game--if he gets through five innings I would consider it to be a successful outing.
Earlier this year, McGowan told Bluebird Banter that Roy Halladay was the one person in the Blue Jays organization who had influenced him the most.
"When I was a rookie, he was essentially the best pitcher in baseball. It was an honour just to see him work every day. He showed us how to work, he showed us how to play the game the right way," McGowan recalled, "not many people get to say the got to play with him, and we’re lucky that we did. He’s the kind of guy where, if you start a conversation with him, he’ll talk to you. He’s a guy who’s all business."
The atmosphere's going to be electric, let's hope drunk idiots don't ruin it for the rest of us.
The Blue Jays went down 7-2 in a bit of a stinker of a game. Brandon Morrow got the start and struggled in the early going, only managing to go five innings, albeit in his first start of the year, and his first start since May 28 of last year due to a season-ending nerve injury in his forearm.
Already down 1-0 going in to the third inning, the Rays scored three runs via four straight hits and a double play. A David DeJesus triple to start the inning, followed by a Desmond Jennings double to score DeJesus, a Ben Zobrist single to score Jennings, then an Evan Longoria single and a James Loney double play grounder scored Zobrist would be pretty much all the Rays needed. Exiting when you read about it, EH??
The Jays managed to score two runs the next half-inning via a Dioner Navarro sac fly and Brett Lawrie infield single, but that's as much as the Jays offence would be able to produce. Chris Archer, fresh off his newly signed six year, $25.5MM deal, struck out seven Blue Jays through six innings, only allowing four hits, two walks, and just those two runs in the top of the fourth. That's not how you get ants, Lana.
Evan Longoria unloaded a monster home run in the bottom of the seventh off of Esmil Rogers.
Rogers had thrown the exact same pitch just before, that Longoria barely missed.
One additional note - Colby Rasmus seems to be struggling to make contact early on this year. Last year too, I guess - he's a guy who is going to swing and swing a lot and also miss on a lot of those swings. Check Nick Ashbourne's piece on Rasmus and high heat.
The Rays, however, seemed to have a plan of attack that involved off-speed stuff down low. Rasmus missed a lot (from the past three games).
Jays of the day uhh... Maicer Izturis went 2-3 with a walk, good for a 0.89 WPA.
Quite a few lousy games from players: Morrow (-.192), Cabrera (-0.89 -.089), Rasmus (-0.96 -.096), and Goins (-0.84 -.094).
Not too fun a game. Ah well! The Jays are back home Fiday and Dustin freakin' McGowan gets his first start since SEPTEMBER 2011!
For those heading to the game Friday, be safe, don't overdrink, and watch out for folks intending to do just that.
Here's to baseball, and to summer.
Adding the comment leader board. Dave is the winning tonight. We had 1662 comments.
You may have been wondering how Chris Archer would react to pitching with his first major league contract. He's an emotional guy, so you might have worried that he'd be a bit too pumped; that he'd lose track of his release point, yank pitches, and generally display the downside he showed at times in the minors. Let's go ahead and put that story line to rest now. Archer may never be a control artist, and he did walk two batters over six innings (striking out seven), but he was perfectly composed from start to finish. What's more, he used his two plus-plus pitches, that mid-90s fastball with elite run and that super-hard, biting slider like a ten-year veteran, moving them around the strikezone, in and out, up and down, with either pitch available in any count. It was the type of performance that can make a fan believe in two option years.
The Rays got on the board first when, with two outs in the bottom of the second inning, Matt Joyce pulled a Brandon Morrow slider over the shift and into the right-field corner for a double. Ryan Hanigan quickly got down 0-2, but displayed his solid plate discipline by holding up on the next three balls to pull the count full. He was rewarded with an elevated fastball that he grounded up the middle. Joyce ran hard and scored easily.
In the top of the third, Archer got into a little bit of trouble when his fastball caught too much of the plate against the leadoff man, Cesar Izturis, and Izturis lined it back up the middle hard for a single. The Jays then proceeded to win the small-ball battle, with Izturis stealing second (Hanigan’s throw had just a bit too much of a hop for Yunel Escobar to be able to apply a quick tag).
The Rays now pulled their infield in, and while the move paid off, it was very close to costing them. Melky Cabrera hit a ground ball just to the left of second base. Escobar only had time to take one step to his left and dive, snagging the ball cleanly. He looked Izturis back to third and threw Cabrera out. It was a sure out with the infield normally positioned, but a brilliant one with the shortstop pulled in. Archer finished off the inning by taking Colby Rasmus to school with four 95+ mph fastballs on the outside corner, and then a slider on the inside. With that setup, and with that slider, as soon as Archer executed the pitch, Rasmus had no chance.
The Rays offense took off in the bottom of the third. David DeJesus, playing in the designated hitter slot because of his bruised foot, hit a fly ball to right field. Jose Bautista made a very poor read, first staying put, and then trying to charge and slide for it as it fell, but the ball got past him and rolled to the wall. DeJesus was clearly hurting as he rounded second, but he chugged along to third. On the first pitch of the next at bat, Desmond Jennings hit a chopper over third base and just out of reach of the shortstop. DeJesus scored easily, and Jennings was extremely aggressive, heading for second with the ball in short left field. He might have been thrown out, but for another nifty slide. He started his slide reaching for the bag with both hands, but seeing that the tag going for his left side, he pulled his left arm back, and reached around Izturis’s mitt with his right. This is what it looks like when baseball succeeds in attracting world-class athletes to the diamond.
The aggressive baserunning paid off, as Ben Zobrist pulled a grounder through the infield, and Jennings scored from first on the single. Evan Longoria also grounded into right field, and Zobrist was able to advance to third, from where he scored on a double play to make it a three-run inning.
The Blue Jays finally got to Archer in the top of the fourth inning. Bautista drew a walk (he was pitched pretty carefully), and then advanced to third when a fliner off the bat of Adam Lind got under the glove of a diving Desmond Jennings and rolled to the wall. Bautista really should have scored on the play, but he made it home anyway when Dionner Navarro hit a fly ball to middle center field. Jennings made the smart play with his unimpressive arm and held Lind at second.
With two outs, it seemed like Archer might escape and allow only one run when Brett Lawrie hit a groundball back up the middle; Escobar was positioned well and had a chance to make a good play as he ranged to his left, but he didn’t get a clean transfer, and the bobble took away any chance of a play at first base. Yunel didn’t notice Lind rounding third, though, until it was too late, and his hurried throw home wasn’t accurate enough to give Hanigan a chance for the tag. To Archer’s credit, he stayed composed while it seemed like his defense was coming apart around him, and he struck out Maicer Izturis to end the inning.
Brandon Gomes came on to relieve Archer in the seventh inning, and quickly produced a soft ground ball to second base for the first out from righty Brett Lawrie. Against the lefty Izturis, though, Gomes left one of his shiny new cutters up, and saw it lined into left field. He got down in the count 3-1 against the ninth-hitting lefty Goins before Hanigan smartly decided to simplify the at bat, abandoning the cutter and the splitter, calling for fastball after fastball at the bottom of the zone. Gomes was able to locate, and eventually he got one past Goins for the strikeout. But with the Jays’ better lefties at the top of their order coming up, Joe Maddon switched out Gomes for the better fastball/splitter model of Joel Peralta. Two perfectly placed fastballs from Peralta ended the danger with a groundball straight to Loney at first base.
Peralta also handled the meat of the Jays’ lineup in the eighth inning, but by that time, Evan Longoria had taken the game out of the balance.
Some other notes:
As alluded to above, in the bottom of seventh inning, Evan Longoria hit a three-run homer left field. It was the first Rays homer of 2014, and it tied Longoria with Carlos Pena for the most career home runs in Rays history.
There was an interesting sequence in the second inning, with Edwin Encarnacion at first base and Adam Lind at the plate with a full count. EE went in motion, but Lind fouled the pitch away. The broadcast cut to Jim Hickey clearing his stopwatch and shaking his head as if to say, "He's not fast enough to the plate." On the next pitch, Encarnacion ran again, and this time Lind swung and missed at a low slider. Hanigan received it well and got off a good throw, but Encarnacion beat it.
One more note on the same play, it actually looked like Encarnacion's hand was blocked by Escobar's foot, but it Joe Maddon didn't appear to even consider a challenge.
In the fourth inning, Escobar hit a fly ball to just over the low foul wall in right field. Bautista was running hard, and when he hit the wall, he flipped over into a hand stand. There was a Tropicana Field security guard standing nearby watching the crowd. He didn't flinch. He just stood there motionless at his post for a good three seconds while Bautista stood on his hands, before finally turning around to help the Blue Jays' slugger up. Tropicana security is well disciplined.
In the fourth inning, Brandon Morrow balked by stepping forward rather than back as his catcher asked to go through the signs again. The umps caught it, but someone loud in the crowd caught it first, and was clearly audible on the broadcast yelling, "It's a balk." Nice job, balk-man. If that was you at the park, know that Tampa Bay heard you.
The lefty Rasmus just had a ton of trouble with Archer's slider tonight, striking out three times. A slider is generally better against same-handed hitters, but Archer's is good enough that it can wipe out anyone when he puts it in the right spot.
Chris Archer threw no changeups today. I thought I saw one (fifth inning against Ryan Goins), but upon checking over at Brooks Baseball, I see that no, it was just a weird, slow slider.
Really nice play by Brett Lawrie in the seventh inning to charge a chopper and get Escobar at first by half a step. Lawrie also got down the first base line very quickly on a few plays. You can say what you want about Lawrie and his outbursts, but he does play hard, and at times well.
