One week and 7 games in, what do we think about the Jays?

We are 3-4 (one game better than last year's 2-5.  We've won the games where the pitching was very good, lost the game when the pitching was bad.

Our offense has been consistent (which doesn't mean good). We've scored 2, 3 or 4 runs in each of the games.  We've averaged 3.14 runs per game, worst in the AL, at the moment. It would be nice if we could break out and score a bunch of runs in a game. If we are going to win, the offense is going to have to be better.

The guys that usually start slow are starting Edwin Encarnacion is hitting  (.179/.207/.321), Brett Lawrie (.120/.185/.120) and Colby Rasmus (.087/.192/.174). The quicker they get the timing down, that happier I'll be. Dioner Navarro had a slow start to last year too, he was hitting .167/.242/.467. Ryan Goins is also off to a slow start (.063/.063/125). Since he doesn't have a track record he's going to have start hitting, at least at a better rate than that. If he doesn't improve soon it's hard to imagine he'll still have the job in May.

Some others have gotten off to a good start. Melky Cabrera (.323/.323/.613) looks like a whole different guy. I wonder how long it will be before he takes a walk.  Adam Lind has been great (.308/.500/.692), as has Maicer Izturis (.500/.529/.563). And Jose Bautista has 3 home runs and a .227/.414/.636 line.

I'm going to reserve judgement on Kevin Seitzer.

Pitching has been far less consistent. We've allowed 9, 2, 0, 7, 7, 0 and 6 runs. I have a feeling that this is the way the season is going to go.

After watching Drew Hutchison yesterday, I wish we had picked up another starter so that Hutchison could have started the season in the minors, getting a few starts to remember to keep the ball down.

I'm curious to see Dustin McGowan's second start. I think he'll be better, but it's going to be a process for him too. It would have been better for him to have a couple of starts in the minors too, but he's long since our of options.

At least the defense looks better than last year.

What are your thoughts on the first week of play?

It was an all-around solid effort in the Yankees' 4-2, home opening win over the Baltimore Orioles.

Following a bit of an underwhelming 3-3 road trip against the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays, the Yankees returned to the Bronx for the home opener against the Baltimore Orioles. They got a little bit of everything, as Hiroki Kuroda and the bullpen pitched well, while the offense was able to grind out Ubaldo Jimenez and the Orioles' bullpen in a 4-2 victory.

After wasting a scoring opportunity with two runners on and one out in the second, the Yankees got on the scoreboard in the following inning. Yangervis Solarte kicked off the frame with a walk; Brett Gardner got the team's first hit with a single, which advanced Solarte to third to set up Derek Jeter with no one out. Jeter struck out in his first at-bat of his final home opener at Yankee Stadium, but he brought Solarte home to break the scoreless tie, though it did come on a 1-6-3 double play.

With one out in the fourth inning, Brett Gardner made a nice leaping catch in foul territory off the bat of Chris Davis. Adam Jones, who earlier reached on a single, smartly tagged up on the play and advanced to second. Matt Wieters then drove him in with a two-out single to tie the game at one.

The Yankees broke the 1-1 tie in the next half inning with a Solarte two-out RBI single that dropped right in front of Nick Markakis in right. This guy has been on fire from the first game of Spring Training; who knows how long he'll keep it up, but he's been really fun to watch so far. Anyway, scoring on the Solarte RBI was Alfonso Soriano, who reached on a hard-hit single earlier in the inning. Kelly Johnson drew a walk from Orioles' starter Ubaldo Jimenez as well.

New York added to their lead in the bottom of fifth, staring off with a hard-hit ball by Jeter that just missed going over the left field wall for a lead-off home run. Instead, the ball hit hard towards the top of the wall that resulted in a double. In fact, even Jeter thought it was gone, as he got out of the box slowly, but he was able to hustle into second safely. Batting third for the second-straight game, Jacoby Ellsbury scored Jeter from second by dropping a single into right, increasing the Yankees' lead to 3-1. Following the RBI, Ellsbury was ruled caught stealing  trying to swipe second, but replays showed that Ellsbury got his foot just under Orioles' second baseman Ryan Flaherty's glove for the first out of the inning.

Nonetheless, the Yankees kept the inning alive with singles by Beltran and Soriano that were sandwiched around a long fly-out by Brian McCann to center. With his pitch count already up there, Jimenez walked Brian Roberts to load the bases. It was a terrific at-bat by Roberts, who fell behind 0-2 in the count before taking and fouling off tough pitches to ultimately work the walk. At 109 pitches already through just 4 2/3 innings, Jimenez was pulled in favor of reliever Zach Britton. The left-handed Kelly Johnson, facing the left-handed Zach Britton, drew a walk to extend New York's lead to 4-1. Solarte then grounded out with the bases loaded for the second third out of the inning to end the threat.

After a sixth inning that resulted in a total of five ground outs, the Orioles crept closer with three straight hits by Chris Davis (ground-rule double), Matt Wieters (single), and Nelson Cruz (RBI single) to make the score 4-2. After Steve Lombardozzi lined out to left field, the Yankees pulled their starter, Hiroki Kuroda, in favor of Matt Thornton. Thornton was able to get a ground out off the bat of Ryan Flaherty, but the tying runs advanced into scoring position. Even after getting roughed up pretty badly against Houston and Toronto last week, David Phelps was summoned from the bullpen to get rookie Jonathan Schoop, and he rewarded Girardi's faith by inducing a grounder to end the frame.

It was announced after the game that David Robertson has a strained groin, so he will be placed on the disabled list. As a result, the Yankees used Adam Warren in a two-run game in the eighth and pushed Shawn Kelley from his eighth-inning role to the ninth. Starting with Warren, the right-hander pitched a scoreless inning with two strikeouts and a walk. However, Vidal Nuno was warming up after Warren issued a lead-off walk, and with Chris Davis up as the tying run with two out in the inning, Girardi stuck with Warren and he rewarded him with a strikeout to keep the score at 4-2. It's only been a couple of games, but Warren has done a very nice job pitching late in close games. Kelley then followed Warren with a nice and easy 1-2-3 inning to close out the ninth for his first career save.

Prior to all the bullpen activity, Hiroki Kuroda made the start and pitched pretty well once again. He got ahead of a lot of hitters and was able to induce plenty of ground balls (52.4% GB-rate, eight ground-outs to just four fly-outs). In total, the unofficial staff ace went 6 1/3 innings; allowed eight hits and two runs while striking out four and allowing no walks. This is the fourth straight game, in fact, that a Yankees' starter hasn't allowed a walk, going back to Ivan Nova's five-walk outing against Houston last week.

Although they didn't hit for much power, with Jeter's double being the team's only extra base hit (Solarte just missed an eighth-inning solo homer, but the wind knocked it down shy of the right field wall), the Yankees worked plenty of long at-bats in their victory. All told, the Yankees drew six walks and saw a total of 163 pitches; that is a very pleasant sight, considering we saw very little of this in 2013.

Next up, another matinee. On Tuesday the Yankees will face these same Orioles with Ivan Nova opposing Wei-Yin Chen at 1:05 PM. The Yankees are now above .500 for the first time, standing at 4-3, while the Orioles drop to 2-5.

Box score

Ken Rosenthal tells us that the plan to ask players for money to pay for Ervin Santana had gone as far as asking the Players Union for permission and getting that approval.

"Everyone had signed off," one source said of the deferrals. "It was already done."

The players would have received more money later in their contracts, to pay them back (plus interest I'm sure) for this loan. The deal with Santana must have been pretty much ready completed, a team wouldn't go to the Union until they had the deal ready to be signed.

Guessing that it would take a little while for the Union to agree to such a plan, maybe it cost the Jays Santana. Alex Anthopoulos has said that he thought they had a deal with Ervin until the BravesKris Medlen was injured and then they swooped in and signed him.

Seems funny that Rogers Corp would have to go 'hat in hand' to the plays to ask for this money Don't they normally just bump up my cell phone bill whenever they need a few extra dollars. It seems to put a lie to the line that Beeston has used about being able to go to Rogers when they need more cash. To me it seems a lousy way to run things.

It does remind me of the end of the J.P. Ricciardi days days, where one season he was given the money needed to build the team and the next yearbeing told that's all you get.

Anyway, the team could have used another starting pitcher and, it seems like, Rogers wasn't willing to kick in the money needed to get one.

American League West punching bag Houston Astros visit Toronto this week for a three game series, with the 'Stros playing some surprisingly good baseball so far this season. After taking two out of three at home from the Yankees (something the Blue Jays couldn't do), they went to Anaheim and won one game in their four game series. With Houston being a team that is expected to be pretty awful again this year, it should be a good opportunity for the Blue Jays to beat up on some weaker competition, which is something they often struggle with. There isn't much to be excited for when watching the Astros, but their middle infield of Jose Altuve and Jonathan Villar is at least major league quality.

via ESPN Depth Charts

Left-hander Brett Oberholtzer gets the start for Houston tonight against fellow lefty Mark Buehrle. Oberholtzer made his only other start this season in the Astros single loss against the Yankees. In that game he went 5.2 innings allowing five hits and three earned runs with five strikeouts. The 24-year-old mixes in four pitches including a four-seam fastball, sinker, curveball, and changeup. He doesn't blow anyone away, but he does have a good amount of deception in his windup:

via CrawfishBoxes.com

Hopeful Lineup

1. Melky Cabrera LF
2. Maicer Izturis 2B
3. Jose Bautista RF
4. Edwin Encarnacion 1B
5. Brett Lawrie 3B
6. Dioner Navarro C
7. Colby Rasmus CF
8. Erik Kratz DH
9. Ryan Goins SS

Find The Link

Each week, I'll profile a player who's outperforming his draft stock. The clear-cut choice for Week 1? Cubs second baseman Emilio Bonifacio, who's already setting records this season.

If I told you that Emilio Bonifacio, he of the .243 batting average and .625 OPS last season, would have 11 hits in his first 16 at-bats of the season, to go along with four stolen bases, you’d have told me I was nuts.

Then again, I never would have told you this because there's no way it would happen! Right?

Let’s break it down.

Since that 11-for-16 (.688) start, Bonifacio has slowed down a bit, but he’s still hitting .500 (14-for-28) with a 1.120 OPS.

There’s plenty of fun to be had with Bonifacio’s hot start. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Bonifacio recorded his 11th hit on April 27; as a reminder, he reached that number on April 3 this year. He’s the first player in the last 100 years to start his Cubs career with at least four hits in each of his first two games, per Carrie Muskat. Only two other players have recorded 11 hits in their first three games of the season since 1900.

You probably get the idea: He started off hot. Setting a modern record for hits over the first two games of the season is certainly worth taking notice of, but does that mean Bonifacio will continue his production?

Why He Will Keep it Up

While Bonifacio hasn’t exactly put up numbers akin to what he’s accomplished during his recent hot spell, he’s shown a propensity to handle the stick in the past. Most recently, after batting .218 in 262 at-bats with Toronto to start the 2013 season, Bonifacio moved to Kansas City. The change of scenery did him quite a bit of good—he batted .285 and raised his OBP by 94 points as he closed out the season with the Royals.

A .266 career batter, Bonifacio also batted .296 over 152 games in 2011, posting a solid .360 OBP with 78 runs scored. The rest of his career hasn’t quite measured up to that breakout season, but this is an induction of what he’s capable of, at the very least.

While it’s unusual for players to break out after several years of mediocrity, it’s not unheard of by any means. Luis Gonzalez was essentially a replacement-level player before moving to the Diamondbacks. The same goes for Jose Bautista before he figured out his swing with the Blue Jays.

Bonifacio isn’t blessed with some of the quickest wrists in the majors like Bautista, so he probably won’t hit 54 homers this season (har-de-har), or even eclipse a .300 average. But whoever manages to acquire Bonifacio could be getting a solid .280 hitter who could score some runs.

The Cubs infielder will also give you plenty of speed. He stole 40 bases in 2011, 30 in 2012 and 28 in 2013. Bonifacio’s success rate is also a shade under 80 percent for his career, meaning he’s especially valuable in leagues that measure net steals.

Why He Won’t Keep it Up

This is the easy one.

Apart from his .296 performance in 2011, Bonifacio has never eclipsed a .261 batting average in any other season. His next highest hits total is 116 in 2009, and he’s also hit 10 home runs in his career.

Additionally, if Bonifacio slumps during the season, the Cubs have Darwin Barney and Luis Valbuena ready to snag his spot at the blink of an eye. Bonifacio is far from guaranteed a place in the lineup, with his spot largely contingent upon a continued hot stretch.

Bottom Line

Anyone who plays fantasy baseball knows Bonifacio can’t keep hitting .500, but the million dollar question is where his batting average will fall to.

To be frank, I’m not sold. There’s a whole lot of question marks and not too many answers when it comes to the Cubs second baseman. Will he defy the odds and outperform the numbers he’s posted during the vast majority of his career? Will he even stay in the lineup? Will the Cubs lineup be able to drive him in consistently when he does reach base?

If you’re desperate, go after Bonifacio and hope for the best. Otherwise, stay clear. Early-season hot spells happen every season, and every time, there’s that one hitter who fades back into mediocrity. What’s to say Bonifacio won’t be that guy this season?

Examining whether or not this question, posed at the SABR Conference, has any roots in reality or is largely a myth.

A growing trend over the last several seasons has been the use of defensive shifts. Think about it: you can probably imagine at least one player, right off the top of your head, who routinely gets "shifted." Joe Maddon of the Raysoften gets credited with moving his infield around, but it's catching on throughout baseball and almost nobody plays David Ortiz straight up anymore. At this point, it's safe to say that the defensive shift is here to stay.

The reason behind this, of course, is that batted balls for many hitters are fairly predictable. In fact, we know that the majority of hitters tend to pull the ball on the ground and go to the opposite field when they hit flies (like Troy Tulowitzki, for example). This is a generalization, but it holds up relatively well across the baseball spectrum. Knowing this, it was only natural that teams would begin moving their fielders to accommodate for these tendencies, especially the hitters who exhibit extreme ones. Take for instance Carlos Pena. We can easily see where he hit the majority of his balls from 2012 to 2013:

It would make perfect sense to move your fielders to better position them to handle this type of hitter. He's an extreme case, but there are certainly other hitters like him out there.

In fact, the original hitter to get shifted very well may have been Ted Williams, so while this idea has caught on with extreme pull hitters at the plate in the last couple of years, it's not necessarily original. The frequency of them, however, has clearly increased, perhaps 100-fold. As Chris Cwik pointed out back in December, these shifts are incredibly hard to track because we don't have reliable data on them. This may change with the new MLBAM system to be unveiled this year (in three parks), but for now, we don't have a lot to go on.

But I want to steer this topic in another direction. While at the SABR conference in Phoenix two weeks ago, I heard a very unique concept espoused by MLB.com writer Barry Bloom. He asked aloud if the shift is ruining baseball and if there should be a mandated balance for infielders, perhaps limiting the area where they can be lined up before each pitch. I've never heard of this viewpoint before and while I think it's a little presumptuous to say that Bloom fully believes this, he was clearly comfortable throwing it out there in the open to a room full of bright baseball minds (and me).

Still, I was kind of dumbfounded that the notion of the shift "ruining baseball" was something that anyone could think. It surely puts certain players at a disadvantage and these are often the power hitters that the game has loved so much over the years. But these hitters have their flaws, most notably a bunch of ground outs to the same area on the diamond. The defense has every right to move around to the positions that serve them best. No one's going to be angry when the infield moves in when Billy Hamilton's at the plate, so what's the big deal with the shifts?

Well, the deal is that these shifts are rendering certain types of players less valuable. If the shift is killing pull-hitting players, then they should see their value decrease when compared to hitters that can spray the ball all over the place. Predictability is usually bad in sports, and the types of players who get shifted are the most predictable sort of players. So maybe the issue is the way that some of us value players, not the shift itself.

If the shift is really transforming baseball, as the questions by Bloom (and likely others) alluded to, by rendering pull-heavy hitters less valuable, we would want to know just who these hitters are. To identify them, I create a simple "balance factor" to judge how frequently these hitters pull the ball as opposed to going up the middle and to the opposite field. I used FanGraphs' batted ball data for the location of balls put in play and calculated the "balance factor" with the following equation:

(((Center Rate + Opposite Field Rate) ÷ 2) - Pull Rate) × 100

Positive outcomes show a propensity for going the other way and up the middle, while negative rates show a propensity to pull the ball. Scores of zero show that the hitter has an equal chance to pull the ball as he does to go the other way and up the middle. I only used qualified hitters in this study, and we'll talk more about that in a minute. For now, take a look at the 25 most pull-heavy qualified hitters from 2013 as determined by the "balance factor":

The players above hit the ball to the pull side at a disproportionate rate. Their balls in play to the pull side heavily outweigh their balls in play to center and the opposite field. What's perhaps most remarkable is that the players at the farthest extreme pretty heavily outweigh the players with the (relatively) more balanced approach. Will Venable has been known for making his pull-heavy approach work for him, but Nate McLouth shows up as relatively balanced in comparison. There simply aren't a lot of wildly extreme pull hitters in this sample.

This, of course, gets back to the issue of choosing only qualified hitters. Several extreme pull hitters are used primarily as platoon players given that they tend to struggle with hitting arm-side pitching and are looking to pull the majority of pitches thrown at them. The tendencies of these players have already limited their usefulness as they're highly predictable. It's also worth noting that several of these players are older, DH-types who are using the one skill they have left (power) to hang around. The lack of balance to their game turns them into one-dimensional players and many of these guys are easy to shift (Travis Hafner, Luke Scott and others come to mind).

But which players are hardest to shift, or better yet, are the most balanced hitters? Again, looking at qualified batters for 2013, here are the 25 most balanced hitters according to the "balance factor" I created above:

Again, note that a positive value shows a tendency to go up the middle or to the opposite field while a negative value shows a tendency to pull the ball. The perfect balance, according to this metric, would be a score of 0.00, showing an equal balance between pulling the ball and going up the middle and to the opposite field. Three hitters, Jon Jay, Ryan Zimmerman and Eric Young, hit this mark. While they show some variance in where their batted balls end up, properly shifting these players would be nearly impossible as they exhibit near-perfect balance. While Eric Young is a switch-hitter, it should be noted that the vast majority of the guys on this list hit from only one side of the dish, meaning that this balance isn't simply a result of switch-hitting. Initially I had considered throwing out switch hitters, but they make up such a small proportion of the sample that I decided to include them if for nothing more than context.

So getting back to the original question posed by Bloom, is the shift ruining baseball? While the shift helps to weed out some pull hitters, primarily aging ones or ones that simply aren't that good at baseball, I can't see the argument for it ruining the sport. Despite names like Mike Moustakas and Dan Uggla on the pull list, there are also names like Andrew McCutchen, Ian Kinsler, Shane Victorino and the Blue Jays' Terrible Tandem of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Meanwhile, the list of balanced hitters is equally as underwhelming (Adeiny Hechavarria) and encouraging (Joe Votto, Paul Goldschmidt) at the same time. If the shift were truly ruining baseball, I'd expect to find more variance between the two extremes, but alas, they are relatively similar as even the average wRC+ is less than 2% different when comparing the groups, so both types can be effective.

It should be stated that while we can't tell exactly which players have been shifted the most, the list of pull hitters above would be a great place to start. If these players were being shifted right out of baseball, I think we would know it. If anything, the shift is simply causing fringe-y, one-dimensional players to either be squeezed out of or never allowed into the game. This doesn't sound like something we should be concerned about as ruining our sport, but is rather another sign that our sport is growing smarter every day.

. . .

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs

Jeff Wiser is an editor and featured writer at Beyond the Box Score and co-author of Inside the 'Zona, an analytical look at the Arizona Diamondbacks. You can follow him on Twitter @OutfieldGrass24.

Astros head north in hopes of righting the ship against the Blue Jays.

You take the good, you take the bad - that's the facts of the Astros' life. Yes, that was bad reference, but it sums up the 'Stros at the moment. They have shown flashes of brilliance not seen in the 2013 season. They have also looked like an exact carbon copy of the 2013 team at times. The Astros face the lords of the north in Toronto, and hope to inch back towards .500.

Blue Jays stumble out of the gate once again without Reyes

The Blue Jays are the perfect example of how hard it is to win the American League East. The Jays went all-in on R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes, and Mark Buehrle before the 2013 season; and processed to fall on their face. Which was the result of injuries more than anything else. It's quicker to just to say if you can name a player on the Toronto's roster, he probably spent extended time on the shelf last season. Thus far the 2014 season hasn't changed much, Jose Reyes is already on the 15-day DL for hamstring inflammation.

Melky Cabrera has lead the way thus far for the Jays' offense, with three home runs in 31 at-bats and .323 OBP. Cabrera has put another season between him and his previous suspension. He also has a benign tumor removed from his spin, that may have been the cause for last year's lower extremity problems - that caused him to be shut down in August. Maicer Izturis finished the 2013 season with a .288 OBP, one of the worst in the league. He is off to a hot start this season, hitting .500 over his first 16 at-bats. Jose Bautista when not busy following people on twitter, he is hitting home runs once again. Three of his five hits thus far in 2014 have left the yard.

You live by the home run, you die by the home run. Of the 22 runs batted in by the Jays in 2014, 12 have come as a result of the long ball. Erik Kraz and Adam Lind have each added to the total with their own dingers.

Brett Lawrie and Colby Rasmus have each struggled out of the gate, collecting three hits together over 48 at-bats. Rasmus has ten strikeouts in 23 at-bats. Edwin Encarnacion also has ten strikeouts in this young season (in 28 at-bats), but he does have three extra-base hits to speak off.

Astros hope to pick themselves up after tough series with the Angels

The Astros offense hasn't had the same spark without Dexter Fowler in the lineup, thankfully it appears he may be able to return this series. He has travelled across the border with the team. To put the Astros' offense in perspective, Fowler is still tied for the lead on the team with 6 hits in half the number of games played. Joining Fowler at the top of the category is Jose Altuve and Jonathan Villar. Altuve has been a catalyst for the offense, drawing four walks and stealing three bags thus far.

Jesus Guzman has made something of his chances in the lineup, collecting three extra base hits thus far in 19 at-bats. Robbie Grossman on the other hand hasn't thus far in 2014, coming to the game on a 0-18 slump.

Pitching Matchup

LHP Brett Oberholtzer (0-1, 4.76 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) vs. LHP Mark Buehrle (1-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.58 WHIP)

Mark Buehrle is known for his slow starts, that wasn't the case in his opening start against the Rays. He pitched 8.2 innings of shutout baseball, allowing four hits, one walk, and struck out 11. The left-hander's main job is to eat up innings like he has done his entire career as the current innings pitched leader in major league baseball. He is working with a fastball around 85mph. He'll need to his spots, If not we may see a repeat of the Astros' Opening Day against other big lefty.

Jesus Guzman has hit Buehrle well in his career, three hits in six at-bats including two doubles. Robbie Grossman is also 2-for-4 in his career. Outside of that, Buehrle owned the Astros in 2013 - giving up one earned run over 17 innings including a completed game shutout on July 25.

Brett Oberholtzer is looking to rebound after his first start that saw him last only 5.2 innings, giving up three earned runs. It will be interesting to see the Jays handle the Astros' left-hander for the first time.

RHP Lucas Harrell (0-1, 15.00 ERA, 3.33 WHIP) vs. RHP Brandon Morrow (0-1, 7.20 ERA, 1.60 WHIP)

Brandon Morrow was shutdown in May last season as the result of a pinched nerve. The 2006 first round draft pick hopes to rebound from that early exit this season, and be a key to the Blue Jays success in 2014. His first outing didn't help that cause, he gave up four runs over five innings against the Rays on April 3. Dexter Fowler and Alex Presley have each faced the right-hander twice with little success.

The Lucas Harrell experiment continues north of the border. The Astros have thrown him out there to sink or swim, after one start he is already flailing underwater - giving up five runs over three inning against the Angels. The same game as Buehrle's complete game shutout on July 25, 2013, Harrell have up three runs in three inning on four hits and two walks.

Melky Cabrera and Edwin Encarnacion is two-for-three against Harrell, while Harrell has help Joey-Bats hitless in two at-bats.

LHP Dallas Keuchel (0-1, 7.20 ERA, 2.00 WHIP) vs. RHP R.A. Dickey (1-1, 4.63 ERA, 1.46 WHIP)

R.A. Dickey has a power-knuckleball that will allow him to pitch as long as he wants. The question has arisen if his knuckleball works indoors.- he has posted a 4.84 ERA in 22 starts at the Rogers Centre. He was excellent in his first start against the Yankees, allowing zero runs over 6.2 innings.

Dickey has held Jose Altuve hitless in seven at-bats. While Dexter Fowler (3-for-6), Jesus Guzman (2-for-6), and Marc Krauss (2-for-3) appear to be able to pick up the knuckler. Krauss two hits have both gone for extra baseses.

Dallas Keuchel looks to improve on his first outing that saw him up around 50+ pitches in the third inning against the Angels. Dallas fought through it and keep the game in check, allowing four runs in five innings.

The power bats of the Blue Jays have all hit the Astros' left-hander well, Bautista, Cabrera, and Encarnacion all have multiple hits in two games against Keuchel.

Brandon Morrow used to be a dominant strikeout pitcher, but his K-rate hasn't been close to the league leaders in three years.

This season the Blue Jays find themselves in the unenviable position of having three pitchers in their rotation that are both performance and health risks. Other than dependable veterans R.A. Dickey and Mark Buehrle, the range of outcomes for the rest of the rotation is massive. Dustin McGowan, Drew Hutchison, and Brandon Morrow are all talented guys with the ability to put together some quality starts, but none of them are even close to a sure thing at this point.

Considering that McGowan is something of a ticking time bomb and Drew Hutchison is essentially a rookie, in theory the most trustworthy of the threesome should be Brandon Morrow. The problem is that even at age 29, it's somewhat unclear what Morrow is.

We know that Brandon Morrow is a power pitcher. Morrow has a career fastball velocity of 94.0 mph and in his first start in Tampa he sat at 93.4 mph, touching 95 with some consistency.

We also know that Brandon Morrow has had trouble with injuries. Morrow famously never topped 200 innings in a season, although to be fair to him the Jays have been fairly cautious with their long-time potential ace, and he has managed less than 180 innings over the last two years combined.

A player who throws hard but has had problems with injuries is hardly a rare archetype, but one thing that always made Morrow unique was his ability to rack up strikeouts. In his first two seasons with the Blue Jays he did so at a remarkable rate; a league-best rate in fact. The table below shows the league leaders in K/9 during for the 2010 and 2011 seasons:

Not only was Morrow the best, it wasn't even close. However, despite the strikeouts, Morrow often struggled with run prevention. This led him to be one of the great sabermetric puzzles of his era, a Ricky Nolasco-like figure whose ERA was nowhere near his peripherals.

Then in 2012, something changed. Morrow put up a 2.96 ERA and many declared that the hard-throwing right hander had finally arrived. The advanced stats guys had predicted this. After all, Morrow was bound to eventually have a course correction that would bring his run prevention in line with his robust fielding-independent numbers.

However, in another sense they were wrong because Morrow's "career year" came with a worse FIP or xFIP than he had in the previous two years. His strikeouts were down to a mere-mortal 7.80 and there was legitimate reason to be suspicious of the breakout that had at one point seemed so inevitable.

Last season Brandon Morrow added to the mystery with a complete abomination of a season where he tossed just over 50 innings with poor peripherals and poor run prevention. There's not much to say about a single start in 2014 that wouldn't be inane overreaction, but Morrow didn't come out an strike out a tonne of guys and put fears about his lost strikeouts to rest.

The pertinent question has become whether Morrow can regain the ability to make batters whiff that made him a unique anomaly from 2010 to 2011, or whether he is the more garden-variety pitcher we saw in 2012 and 2013. ZiPs projects a 9.75 K/9 for Morrow going forward, whereas Steamer puts him at 7.67, so it's fair to say there is some disagreement on the issue.

When comparing his lines from the 2010-2011 era to 2012 on it should be noted that not all of the changes have been for the worse.

The second sample is significantly smaller and less reliable, but it's clear that Morrow has tightened up his command. The ERA gap is also fairly significant here. There is an argument to be made that Morrow has become a better pitcher in recent years, but I don't think I'd buy that argument. Your stance there likely depends on what you think over ERA vs. FIP, and that's a debate for another day.

Whether one believes that Morrow's lost K's are a massive issue, or perhaps a necessary sacrifice in favor of other aspects of his game, it's interesting to see where the missing strikeouts went.

One explanation for this phenomenon that his been offered has been a decrease in velocity. This explanation isn't completely and utterly without merit, but at the same time it is incomplete. The idea that Morrow is pitching with a fundamentally different arsenal is recent years is simply not true as Morrow's fastball has dropped by less than 0.5 mph between the two time periods according to Brooks Baseball.

Between 2010 and 2011 Morrow registered 91.8% of his strikeouts via the fastball or slider, and he has similarly got 93.9% of his K's from the two pitches since 2012 making them an excellent place to start in the search for the missing whiffs. Although the difference in velocity is negligible, it doesn't mean that there isn't a change in usage and effectiveness.

We begin by looking at Morrow's slider, as it has traditionally been his out pitch. Specifically focusing on sliders in two-strike counts gives us a sense of whether its effectiveness in ringing up batters has changed. The following chart compares Morrow's slider during the two time periods in question.

The difference here is minimal, bordering on completely irrelevant. Hitters are putting Morrow's slider in play a little bit more often in recent seasons and whiffing a tiny bit less, but it's nothing to write home about.

If the problem isn't with his slider, Morrow is probably failing to put hitters away with the fastball.

Despite almost having almost identical fastball velocity during these two sections of his career, Morrow has been far, far worse at generating strikeouts with the heater in the last couple of seasons.

A look at the location of Morrow's fastball whiffs with two strikes paint a clearer picture. This is what Morrow's ability to get whiffs on the fastball with two strikes looked like when he was leading the league in K/9:

This is what it has looked like since 2012:

In previous years Morrow was able to climb the ladder with his fastball to get strikeouts, but he has not done so of late. Remarkably, he got batters to whiff high in the strike zone, which is often a very unwise place to leave a fastball.

More recently, he has struggled to do so. While the sample size is indeed smaller, it appears that Morrow has thrown high fastballs less often with two strikes as well. The first sample is significantly less than twice as large as the second, but there are over three times as many two-strike fastballs thrown above the midpoint of the strike zone by Morrow in 2010 and 2011.

When this information is presented numerically, it looks like this:

Morrow's high heat is diminished in terms of both quantity and effectiveness.

Exactly why this is the case remains something of a mystery. Morrow hasn't lost much in the way of velocity and his slider continues to be effective so it's not as if batters are keying on the fastball because the rest of the repertoire is faltering.

What we do know is that for Brandon Morrow to be truly elite at striking out hitters he needs to be able to do it with both the fastball and the slider. For the time being it doesn't seem like he is getting the whiffs he needs from his fastball. This may or may not be a solvable problem.

On one hand his velocity hasn't declined much at all, leaving one to believe that he's throwing basically the same fastball. On the other hand, the results have been undeniably different.

There can be no definitive conclusion, except for the obvious and frustrating one, which is that the answer lies somewhere in the middle. It seems unlikely that Morrow touches 10 K/9 again, but at the same time he can probably do better than the 7.53 he's produced since the 2012 season opened. That is a pretty significant range, but as the season wears on the Blue Jays will hopefully become more sure of what they have in Brandon Morrow.

If he stays healthy that is.

Keith Law gives his scouting report on the Yankees' Double-A affiliate

Keith Law recently went to go see the Trenton Thunder play the New Hampshire Fisher Cats (Blue Jays Double-A affiliate), where both teams sent out their best pitchers, Bryan Mitchell for the Thunder and Aaron Sanchez for the Fisher Cats. Law released some of his notes on the two teams:

Bryan Mitchell

He currently ranks as the system's 14th best prospect, up from 18 in 2013, however the hype has never matched the results. In four full seasons and one start into his fifth, the 22-year-old has a 4.52 ERA, a 4.4 BB/9 and a 8.2 K/9. It's easy to see that control has been an issue throughout his career. Last week was no different; he reached 95 mph, but he was wild and hitters were on his pitches all night. He racked up a high pitch count early on and could only reach four innings before he gave up four runs.

Mitchell's fastball is a four-seamer with no movement, just a little downhill plane from his 3/4 arm slot, so he tries to offset it with a cutter at 91-93 that I think will probably end up his best pitch, especially if he shifts to a relief role. His curveball is short with mostly downward break, 81-83, occasionally getting slurvier up to 85, but he didn't command it well and put a number of pitches of all varieties in the dirt.

It didn't seem like Law was very impressed with Mitchell overall, seeing him as a potential reliever at the highest level. He believes that if Mitchell can't throw his curveball for strikes, he should scrap it and then he could go fastball/cutter out of the bullpen. Now that Jose Ramirez has been made a reliever,the idea of moving Mitchell to the pen sounds even more disappointing. I have never been very impressed by Mitchell, so I think this would be the best thing for him.

Mason Williams

Williams has been the No.2 prospect in the organization since 2012, but scouts are starting to give up on the toolsy outfielder. Law took issue with Williams last year; when he saw him it was right after his DUI, he was overweight, and he appeared to put in little effort during the game. In 2014, Law still seems unimpressed with the 22-year-old.

Mason Williams hit a pair of pitches hard, including a line drive single the other way on a 95 mph fastball, but as usual was too aggressive for his own good, seeing a total of seven pitches in his four at bats; he keeps jumping on the first fastball near the zone he sees rather than trying to work the count to get a more favorable pitch or location.

After watching him this spring, I completely agree with this assessment. It seemed that Mason would simply swing at anything and everything, whether it was in the zone or not. The problem with his overly aggressive approach is that he's good at making contact, but it isn't necessarily quality contact. He gets the bat on the ball, somehow, and ends up hitting an infield grounder that doesn't do anything for him. Law still likes his tools, since he still has bat speed, can run, and play great defense, but "it's been two-plus years now where the aggressiveness has been a known issue, and he's getting to the age where we need to see him make an adjustment."

Gary Sanchez

A lot has been made of Gary Sanchez's defensive abilities. He's the Yankees' top prospect and one of the best catching prospects in the game, based on his bat, but what about his glove? There has been a mix of reports about how good or bad he is behind the plate, but it didn't sound like Law could definitively rule one way or the other since Mitchell was so wild. He felt Sanchez had some trouble, but he wasn't that bad overall.

Talking about replay, Matt Alber, and Eduardo Perez.....

I have been called in from the pen while Mr. Coleman is off prancing around Augusta, Georgia taking in The Masters.

1. Replay unfinished

Last night LJ Hoes attempted to score on a ball fielded by the pitcher Brett Cecil. Cecil flipped the ball to catcher Dioner Navarro, who was positioned directly on the base path in front of the plate before the ball arrived. I happened to be listening to the radio, Robert Ford and Steve Sparks both immediately felt Navarro had failed to give Hoes a path to the plate before he had the ball. After the tag and subsequent call of out, Bo Porter challenged the play.

The thing is Porter can't challenge if the catcher was improperly blocking the plate. Evan Drellich talked more about the the review -

The umpires reviewed only the safe/out call, an official familiar with the ruling told the Chronicle.

[...]

But in this instance, the block of the plate was not looked at. And had it been, no violation would have been observed anyway, the official familiar with the ruling said.

He also talked with Hoes about the plate at the plate -

"It's just different," Hoes said of the collision rules. "It's different. You have to get used to the rules and play the game differently.

"From my point of view, he was blocking the plate," Hoes continued. "Umpires' judgment, umpires' rules, and he ruled I was out."

There are many factors playing into the confusion last night, a new rule on top of a new process needing to be applied in an instant. Both the radio and television teams felt that the blocking of the plate was being review when the crew chief left the field. One of the many kinks that still needs to worked out is the communication between the umpires and the audience. Does that mean we will hear the umpires voice like in football? Or can they send a note up to the media and the jumbotron?

2. Matt Albers' child is born

Matt Albers left the team before they headed to Toronto on paternity leave, Josh Zeid joined the team in his stead. Albers son was born yesterday.

Matt Albers' son Mason James was born yesterday

— Evan Drellich (@EvanDrellich) April 9, 2014

3. Eduardo Perez to call Astros game

Former Astros bench coach has an interesting assignment in his new job with ESPN. He will be calling the Astros and Blue Jays game tonight on ESPN2. What insight will Perez bring to the game? What will he hold back? Either way I'll be watching.

Former Astros bench coach from last season Eduardo Perez will call Astros game along with Adnan Virk tonight on ESPN2.

— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) April 9, 2014

Sometimes, ok, often, I don't understand the moves the Blue Jays make.

They decide they have to get rid of Jeremy Jeffress. They want to get rid of him so badly that they do it too soon to be able to call up anyone on 40-man roster, so they add Marcus Walden to the 40-man, call him up and then option him back to the minors, without using him. Seems to be a waste of an option year for Walden but, who knows, maybe the Jays will call him up again. They really should have kept Jeffress around for a few more days. He could have sat in the bullpen unused, as well as Walden.

Anyway, nice to have Neil Wagner back. I like guys that throw hard. Here are his numbers from last year:

Wagner pitched twice for the Bisons, this season, throwing 2.1 innings, allowing just 1 hit, with 4 strikeouts and getting 2 saves.

Can the Orioles pull off the first series win of 2014? Doing so against the Yanks will make it sweeter.

Boy, the Orioles offense needed that one from yesterday.  The offense exploded with 14 runs, which is only 1 less than previous 4 games combined.  It was encouraging to see the first Adam Jones homer, a Delmon Young explosion (!) and some of the "other guys" (Lombardozzi, Schoop, Flaherty) chipping in for combined 8 hits.  Tonight, in the Bronx, the Orioles lineup will face the new Yankees $155 million import ($175 million if you count the posting fee), Masahiro Tanaka as Miguel Gonzalez will try to hold down the Yankees lineup.

Pitchers

RHP Miguel Gonzalez, Baltimore Orioles

A solid #3~4 type since 2012, Gonzalez was shelled by the Tigers in his first start of the year (3.1 IP, 9H, 7ER) and looks to rebound in the Yankee Stadium.  Remember the O's playoff run in 2012 when Gonzalez was just dominating against the Yankee lineup?  Your memory is accurate - that year, he held the Bombers to the line of .208/.222/.396, which is downright Mendoza-ian.  However, the current Yankee position players have hit him for .290/.364/.580 line in their lifetime, which, is quite a difference.  Well, if the numbers I gave you seem worrisome, keep in mind that Gonzalez is a solid pitcher who has shown that he's much better than how he did in Detroit so let's hope for a redemption.  He was quite decent in ST (3.54 ERA, 20.1 IP) so I don't think we are looking at a falloff in his career or anything like that.

RHP Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees

If you were alive during offseason, you know who he is.  Yankees spent a whopping $175 million for posting fee and contract to have a 25-year old Japanese star to pitch for them.  On his first ML start versus the Blue Jays, he was quite solid - 7.0 IP, 6H, 2ER and 8K's with no walks.  Pitch f/x says that he mixed 7 pitches while aiming his pitches below the strikezone to get whiffs - he threw 16 pitches out of 97 thrown on the left side right below the strikezone in his first start.  It will be his first start at the Yankee Stadium and the first time the O's will face him - there are no previous data on their matchup (obviously) but if Tanaka's command and stuff are on, the O's hitters have something finicky to work on.

Nothing too special in the lineups besides that for the Yankees, Ellsbury will be the DH instead of Beltran or Soriano - I guess it would not be a bad idea for them to rest Ellsbury's speedy legs a break.  Can I also talk about how pesky Yangervis Solarte is?  He was virtually minor league fodder stuck in the Rangers minor league system and now he ranks top 10 in MLB's OPS rank with 1.227 and leads everyone in doubles (6).  Of course you should not expect him to continue that stretch (thank God) but a hot hitter is a hot hitter - he reminds me of 2005 Aaron Small, who was also virtually unknown by many until having a flukey 10-0 season with the Yankees in 2005.

As for the Orioles, it is encouraging to see a 14-run game from yesterday and guys like Matt Wieters (.987 OPS), Nelson Cruz (.965 OPS) and Adam Jones (.879) have been hitting well as well as Chris Davis could see some more power surge (.414 SLG is not bad in general but dismal in Chris Davis world).  The winning formula seems to be quite straightforward here - Gonzalez needs to allow less runs (or no runs at all) than the offense scores (or the offense needs to score more than Gonzalez allows).  It's the first nightcap in... what... awhile?!  Enjoy the much-longed evening baseball, compadres.  Hardy is still not in the lineup (ugh back spasms ugh) and Lough, apparently injured (but not badly enough for DL apparently?), will be on the bench.  Will Delmon Young show another display of former phenom's potential?  Just for a fun thought.

Anywho, here's the lineup:

After notching two saves for the Buffalo Bisons to begin 2014 (and going 18-for-18 in save opportunities since 2013), right-hander Neil Wagner has been recalled to the Blue Jays before Thursday evening's game against the Astros. To make room for Wagner, Marcus Walden was optioned to Buffalo. Essentially, the Blue Jays swapped an accidental call-up who could've acted as an emergency long reliever for a good one-inning reliever. Having used SteveDelabar, Aaron Loup, Brett Cecil, and Sergio Santos last night, the Jays probably figured that they needed a Wagner-type pitcher more than Chad Jenkins, a guy who can be given longer assignments.

Wagner, 30, first joined the Blue Jays as a minor league free agent in 2013 and was a very effective closer in triple-A before he was called up at the end of May. Wagner held major league hitters scoreless through his first six appearances, and was very effective through the end of August.  He hit a bit of a bump in September, but it was partially due to an elevated BABIP in that month. He still finished the year with a 3.79 ERA (3.53 xFIP), 1.368 WHIP, and striking out 20.5% and walking 8.1% of batters he faced through 38 innings of work.

Has the Blue Jays' Neil Wagner found "it" at age 29?

Bluebird Banter's interview with Neil Wagner just before his first call-up in 2013.

His main offering is a fastball that reaches 96 mph, supplemented by a mix of a slider and a change which are about 10 mph slower. It was quite a thing to see him, Steve Delabar, Dustin McGowan, and Sergio Santos light up the radar guns out of the bullpen last year. I am glad to see him back up with the team, although he is probably the first one to be sent back to triple-A when J.A. Happ or Casey Janssen returns, as he is one of those rare but precious commodities: a reliever with options.

Going the other way is Walden, who joins (hopefully temporarily) Brian Jeroloman as "phantom players"--ones who have been on a major league roster at some point, but never appeared in a game. Walden really should never have been called up so soon (he had not appeared above double-A before 2014), but the Blue Jays front office forgot about a key rule about optional assignments.

After last Friday's Home Opener, the Jays designated Jeremy Jeffress for assignment, wanting to recall Chad Jenkins as another long-man in the 'pen; however, the club forgot that players--like Jenkins--on optional assignments can only be recalled after a 10-day period had elapsed, unless the player was called up to replace someone going on the disabled list. So despite having announced the move to the media Friday night, the club had to retract it and announce in the morning that they were going to choose Walden instead. Because Walden was not on the 40-man roster to start the season, was eligible to be called up.

For me, the front office forgetting about the 10-day rule with options--formally Major League Rule 11(b)(1)--is more embarrassing for the club than the story that they had to go to their players, hat-in-hand, to ask for a loan to sign Ervin Santana. The Jenkins move just demonstrated negligence, probably stemming from desperation. It's not like there is too much negative associated with placing a 25-year-old minor league free agent like Marcus Walden on the roster as the club would not be losing much if they decide to outright him, but this mistake just irked me a lot. At the PITCH event on Monday, Shi Davidi suggested that perhaps the lost of assistant general manager Jay Sartori in the offseason may have contributed to this mistake.

By the way, it is April 9, so 10 days has elapsed since the beginning of the season, so Wagner's callup is legal, but it's incredible that I had to check the calendar to make sure.

It was a big day for some former big prospects in Iowa. The Smokies won their home opener while Daytona dropped two and Kane County lost.

We've actually got a photo from today's I-Cubs game accompanying today's story, thanks to www.dylanheuer.com. That's a first.

Iowa Cubs

The Iowa Cubs played taps for the Nashville Sounds (Brewers), 6-1.

It was a great start for Carlos Pimentel, who got his first win in the Cubs organization. Pimentel allowed a solo home run in the second inning, but that was one of only three hits he allowed over six innings. Even better, Pimentel struck out ten and only walked one.

It was "Old Top Prospects Day" at Principal Park today. First, right fielder Brett Jacksonhit a solo home run in the sixth inning. Jackson was 1 for 4.

Next, in the seventh inning, Josh Vitters hit a two-run home run to put the game out of reach at 6-1. It was Vitters' second home run this year. He was 1 for 3 with a walk.

Shortstop Javier Baez was 2 for 4 with a double. He scored twice.

Tennessee Smokies

The Tennessee Smokies won their home opener, 3-1 over the Chattanooga Lookouts (Dodgers)

C.J. Edwards had some control issues tonight, but his results weren't too bad as he allowed only one run on five hits over 5.2 innings. He did walk four and had a wild pitch. Edwards struck out five.

P.J. Francescon relieved Edwards with the bases loaded and two out in the sixth and got a ground out to end the threat. He stayed in the game to pitch another inning and he retired all four batters he faced, striking out two. He got his second win when Tennessee took the lead in the bottom of the sixth.

A.J.Armando Rivero recorded a four-out save, retiring every batter he faced. Three of them went down on strikes, swinging.

All three Smokies runs scored when catcher Rafael Lopezdoubled with two men on the bottom of the sixth inning. Both runners scored and then Lopez came around to score on a throwing error. Lopez was 2 for 3 with a walk.

Second baseman Stephen Bruno went 2 for 4.

Daytona Cubs

The Daytona Cubs dropped a doubleheader to the Dunedin Blue Jays, 1-0 and 6-4.

In the first game, Felix Pena took the hard-luck loss. Pena allowed only one run on five hits over six innings. Three of those hits were in the third inning when he allowed the run. He struck out five and didn't walk anyone.

Center fielder Albert Almoradoubled twice but failed to score in a 2 for 3 game. He had two of the D-Cubs four hits.

Jose Rosario started game two and didn't pitch poorly, but took the loss anyway. Rosario pitched five innings and gave up two runs, one earned, on three hits. He walked three and struck out four.

Starling Peralta relieved Rosario in the sixth and gave up three hits and one batter reached on an error. All four runners eventually came around to score, three of them on a double against Andrew McKirahan. Peralta struck out the first batter he faced, but that was the only out he recorded.

Daytona made it close when Dan Vogelbach hit his first home run of the season in the bottom of the sixth with two men on. Vogelbach went 1 for 3.

Kane County Cougars

The Kane County Cougars fell back to .500 with a 7-4 loss in ten innings to the Fort Wayne TinCaps (Padres).

Paul Blackburn's second Kane County start was better than the first. He gave up a two-run home run in the second inning, but those were the only runs he allowed over five innings. Blackburn allowed only two hits. He walked two, hit a batter (who scored on the home run) and struck out four.

It was a tough outing for Jose Arias, who blew the one-run save opportunity in the top of the ninth on a solo home run and then gave up three unearned runs in the top of the tenth after an error by center fielder Jacob Hannemann. Arias pitched two innings and allowed four runs on three hits and a walk, although only one of the four runs were earned. He walked one and did not have a strikeout.

Batters one through eight in the Cougars lineup each had one of the eight hits the team had on Wednesday afternoon. First baseman Jacob Rogers hit his first home run this season with the bases empty in the second inning. Rogers went 1 for 4.

Hannemann was 1 for 5. He tripled and scored in the bottom of the first inning.

Astros 3 Blue Jays 7

This was the most runs the Jays scored this year, and all it took was facing a pretty lousy starting pitcher. Lucas Harrell didn't impress, though his defense didn't help him out.

On offense there was lots of good news, we had 10 hits in all (I think the most hits we've had this year), plus 5 walks. Two hits each from Melky Cabrera, Maicer Izturis and Dioner Navarro. Jose Bautista, Adam Lind, Colby Rasmus and Brett Lawrie (his first home run of the the year, let's hope that gets him going) each had one hit.

Edwin Encarnacion was 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts and Ryan Goins was 0 for 3, but took a walk. Unfortunately, Ryan was quickly picked off first base. If it is only your second time on base, in your team's 9th game, you can't be getting yourself picked off. It was a pretty close play, but still, that can't happen. I'd like to be patient with Ryan, but I'm really thinking he could go back to Buffalo when Reyes is ready to come back, unless he turns it around soon. Kevin Seitzer is going to regret making him his star pupil.

We scored a couple of runs in the first. Izturis singled, Bautista doubled him home and Lind singled to score Jose.

The Astros helped us to 3 more runs in the 5th. Cabrera singled and stole second, Izturis singled him home. Bautista walked. After Edwin struck out the Astros walked Lind to load the bases. I'm not a big fan on intentional walks, but this one almost worked out. Navarro hit a ground ball to third, a pretty easy double play ball, but Matt Dominguez threw the ball into right field and we scored two more runs. Dominguez would make another throwing error in the 6th, but we didn't score that time.

In the 7th, Navarro singled (and stole a base! If he can steal a base, how come Rasmus can't?). Brett Lawrie followed with his first home run of the season.

Brandon Morrow pitched 5 great innings. Unfortunately he ran into some troubles in the 6th, allowing a 2-run home run and a triple, and 3 runs. It looked to me like he was tiring. In the first 5 innings he allowed just 2 singles and a walk, while striking out 9 Astros. He looked like the Morrow of old (well, just 2 or 3 years ago). All it took was Nick writing a post talking about how he doesn't strike guys out any more. Poor Nick is going to get a complex.

Neil Wagner threw 2 perfect innings, getting 3 strikeouts. I'm glad he was back.

Steve Delabar started the 9th and took a hard ground ball of the leg, he had to come out of the game, but apparently he's just bruised. He likely will be kept out of tomorrow's game but should be ok after that. Esmil Rogers got the last two outs.

The Jays are now 5-4 and sitting in first in the AL East.  Let's enjoy the moment.

Tomorrow R.A. Dickey gets to try to get us 2 games above .500. Dallas Keuchel starts for the Astros. He had a rough time in his first start of the season, allowing 8 hits, 4 earned, 2 walks with 5 strikeouts, in 5 innings against the Angels.

Jays of the Day are Morrow (.165 WPA), Wagner (.099) and Bautista (.126). I'm going to give Navarro an honorary mention for his first stolen base since 2009 (he stole 5 bases that year, his career high).

No Suckage Jay but I'm going to give Goins a dishonorable mention for getting picked off.

We had 1467 comments in our game threads. e&n4e (I wonder what that stands for?) led the way with 126 comments. Great job.

Is that the sweeping of brooms I hear coming nearer? The Blue Jays get their first shot at a series sweep tonight as they take on the lowly Astros. R.A. Dickey gets his third start of the year and faces off against lefty Dallas Keuchel. The 26-year-old is definitely not one of the best starters in the league with his ERA usually sitting in the 5's after every season. He's made one previous start this year going five innings against the Los Angeles Angels allowing four runs on eight hits. This is an important game for the Blue Jays to show they can take advantage of a weaker pitcher and dominate the game.

Keuchel throws pretty much every type of pitch ever invented, which might be part of the reason he's struggled so massively in his major league career. On any given night, Keuchel will throw a four-seamer, cutter, sinker, changeup, slider, and a curveball. His pitch map is basically tie dye:

via Fangraphs

His slider isn't a bad pitch and he throws it a ton against left-handed hitters leading to a fair amount of whiffs. He buries it down and away which could spell trouble for Adam Lind if he gets the start.

via www.fangraphs.com

Keuchel actually faced the Blue Jays twice last year near the end of the season pitching 14.1 innings allowing six earned runs on 14 hits. Funnily enough, the Astros won the game he allowed six runs in and lost the game where he shut the Blue Jays out for 7.0 innings.

Hopeful Lineup

Adam Lind got the start in one of the games against Keuchel last year and was positively dreadful, so it's probably best if he just sits this one out regardless of how bad the left-handed starter is. It would be nice if Moises Sierra got a start eventually, since the team is going to need to do something with him sooner or later. I actually like this lineup a fair bit, all things considered:

1. Melky Cabrera LF
2. Maicer Izturis 2B
3. Jose Bautista RF
4. Edwin Encarnacion 1B
5. Brett Lawrie 3B
6. Erik Kratz C
7. Colby Rasmus CF
8. Moises Sierra DH
9. Jonathan Diaz SS
   

Improbable Jumbotron Factoid

After a one year hiatus, Improbable Jumbotron Factoids have made a miraculous return:

Jose Altuve is exactly one Altuve tall.

Find The Link

Early into the 2014 season only two qualified batters have gone without a strikeout in a league where the K is more common than ever.

For a game that has experienced relatively few significant rules changes over the years, the new challenge system excepted, baseball is evolving and transforming at surprising rate.

One of the specific changes that has raised the most eyebrows recently is the substantial rise of strikeouts. Although it is early in 2014, we are seeing the rise of K's continue this season. Over the last ten seasons the league-wide trend looks like this:

For every trend there are always going to be outliers that fight back against the tide. When talking about an early season small sample the phrase "fighting back against the tide" is probably too strong of a statement, far too strong of a statement in fact.

However, it is interesting to note which hitters have managed to avoid the K in an era where they are so prevalent. At this point in this season there are two qualified hitters who fit that description to a tee, in a sense that they have not struck out yet in 2014: Braves shortstop Andrelton Simmons and Blue Jays catcher Dioner Navarro.

Which of the two players can survive the longest? Let's dig into the numbers a bit to find out. First we'll take a look at Andrelton Simmons.

Simmons has always been a strong contact hitter. In his minor league debut in 2010 he posted a miniscule 5.2% strikeout rate and the highest rate he's posted at any level is 11.5% in his MLB debut in 2012. The table below shows his career strikeout and contact rates:

From this chart it's pretty clear why Simmons is one of the remaining survivors without a strikeout. He might not be Marco Scutaro, but he's fairly close.

The more mysterious character on the two man list of strikeout-less men is Jays catcher Dioner Navarro. Navarro has been competent with the bat at times, but overall he's been nothing to write home about at the plate with a 83 wRC+ for his career. He has been able to avoid the whiffs during his time in the league, but not to a special extent. His strikeout and contact numbers look like this (omitting his 2004 season where he had 7 plate appearances):

Navarro has been a solid contact hitter, but his current 90.2% contact rate reeks of unsustainability, especially coming off a season with a career-low contact percentage. His profile is very different than the profile of Andrelton Simmons. While he's not the last guy you'd expect to go without a strikeout for this long, he definitely isn't the first.

If you were a betting man or woman, your best bet would be on Simmons to be the last man standing here, but the fact that Navarro is here at all means that anything can happen. Ultimately, as the kids say, you can't predict ball. One or both of these men could strikeout tonight rendering this mini-race irrelevant, if it was ever relevant at all. For now, in the age of the strikeout there are but a pair of hitters who have been able to avoid the long walk back to the dugout less than 10 games into the season.

Hundreds of men have stepped up to the plate. Two are left standing.

. . .

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs

Nick Ashbourne is an Editor for Beyond the Box Score. You can follow him on Twitter at @Nick_Ashbourne.

Astros hope to salvage final game north of the border with Keuchel on the mound.

Houston at Toronto, 6:07 p.m.

TV: CSN Houston, MLB.TV 
Radio: KBME 790 AM, KLAT 1010 AM
Blue Jays SBNation Blog: Bluebird Banter

Pitching matchup

LHP Dallas Keuchel (0-1, 7.20 ERA, 2.00 WHIP) vs. RHP R.A. Dickey (1-1, 4.63 ERA, 1.46 WHIP)

Preivew

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R.A. Dickey has a power-knuckleball that will allow him to pitch as long as he wants. The question has arisen if his knuckleball works indoors.- he has posted a 4.84 ERA in 22 starts at the Rogers Centre. He was excellent in his first start against the Yankees, allowing zero runs over 6.2 innings.

Dickey has held Jose Altuve hitless in seven at-bats. While Dexter Fowler (3-for-6), Jesus Guzman (2-for-6), and Marc Krauss (2-for-3) appear to be able to pick up the knuckler. Krauss two hits have both gone for extra baseses.

Dallas Keuchel looks to improve on his first outing that saw him up around 50+ pitches in the third inning against the Angels. Dallas fought through it and keep the game in check, allowing four runs in five innings.

The power bats of the Blue Jays have all hit the Astros' left-hander well, Bautista, Cabrera, and Encarnacion all have multiple hits in two games against Keuchel.

Dickey faced the Astros on July 26, 2013 - he pitched six innings and gave up five runs. Those five runs came off seven hits, two walks, and eight strikeouts. Marc Krauss touched up the knuckleballer for a two-run homer in tha game. Villar and Krauss also added a double in the game. Krauss snapped his 0-for-15 streak last night and appears to have a good eye for the knuckler in a small sample.

Maicer Izturis continues to be  hot, batting .455 (10-for-22) this season. This includes 2-for-3 with a one run batted in his last game.

Dexter Fowler was welcomed back to the lineup, going 1-for-3 with a run scored.

Astros 6 Blue Jays 4

So that didn't go the way we hoped it would.

I have a Gibby rant all bubbling to get out. I wish Gibby would get that, while R.A. Dickey is a knuckleball pitcher, he's not the normal knuckleball pitcher. He throws harder than most (or at least when things are good he throws harder than the normal knuckleball pitcher), and of course, he tires quicker than the normal knuckleball pitcher. So if it is, just hypothetically, the 7th inning and Dickey has thrown over 100 pitches and guys are hitting him hard, IT IS TIME TO PULL HIM. Don't wait until just after he give up a, hypothetical, 3-run homer. Pull him when it is clear he is tiring.

Anyway....Dickey was doing pretty good tonight, before the 7th inning. He had allowed just 2 runs, off a Robbie Grossman home run. Then in the 7th, he starts things off by giving up a pretty deep fly out. Then a double over Jose Bautista. And a walk. At this point he's at 111 pitches and clearly tired. Anyone else we'd take out of the game, but since he's R.A. Dickey, Knuckleball pitcher, we leave him out there to give up a 3-run homer to Jonathan Villar, that put the game out of reach. Changing a tight 2-1 game to a 5-1 game, making a comeback win much tougher.

Not that the Jays didn't try. They did get 3 runs in the 9th: Dioner walked for the first time this season. Colby Rasmus singled (giving him a 3 hits game, one of the hits his first homer of the season). Adam Lind doubled home Rasmus and Navarro. An Anthony Bass error brought home Lind, making it a 6-4 game. But that's as close as it would get.

On offense, we didn't do enough. Rasmus had the 3 hits, Melky Cabrera was 2 for 5 with 2 doubles Lind had a pinch hit double and Bautista 2 walks.

The loss drops us back to .500 at 5-5, and we are tied with the Yankees and Rays for the lead in the AL East.

Jay of the Day is Rasmus (.143 WPA for his 3 for 4 night, with a home run and double.

Suckage goes to Dickey (-.166, but give an assist to Gibby on that), Maicer Izturis (-.151 for his 0 for 4) and Edwin Encarnacion (-.129 for his 0 for 4).

Our GameThread had 1162 comments. Hathorian pretty much lapped the field with 141 comments, a great effort in a losing cause.

Episode title: "Marcus Walden Pond"

It's Friday again, so that means we will be airing another live episode of the Blue Jays minor league podcast Around The Nest today at 5 pm Eastern. This is your chance to get your questions about the Blue Jays' farm system answered by a panel of experts who watch every game--the broadcasters. Simply go to the comments and add your questions before 4 pm and they will answer a few selected questions on the show.

My question this week is on Anthony Gose: Through six games, the outfielder has already had five walks (on four strikeouts) I want to ask a bit more detail about his approach at the plate this year, and how it differs from what he did in 2013 (if anything).

On today's show, host Jesse Goldberg-Strassler of the Lugnuts will be speaking first with the Bisons' (4-2, t-1st) Ben Wagner, then the Fisher Cats' (2-5, 6th) Tom Gauthier, then Al Hernandez and Tyler Murray of the Dunedin Blue Jays (6-1, 1st), then finally Trey Wilson of the Lugnuts (3-4, 4th). You can listen to the episode here:

If you missed last week's show, and would like to see if your question was answered, select Week 1 in the widget below: