The Orioles are coming off the first series win of the year versus the Yankees. Can they continue the groove back at home versus the Jays?
After the nailbiter that was against the Yankees on Wednesday evening, the boys are back to Baltimore to face the Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays, as you may know, are the team that fell apart in 2013 due to a plethora of injuries. So far this year, they haven't been struck as hard *yet* but the impact names like Jose Reyes and Casey Janssen became early casualties. However, they haven't done bad in the first 10 games with the 5-5 record. The first game of the series will feature the pitching matchup of Chris Tillman versus Dustin McGowan.
Pitchers
RHP Dustin McGowan, Toronto Blue Jays
McGowan was hit pretty hard by the Yankees on his first start - 2.2 IP, 8H, 4ER. To be fair, it was his first start since 2011 and he showed some good stuff in the Spring Training for Blue Jays to ensure faith as one of the rotation starters so let's not write him off yet. If we are to do that, however, it's because of his catastrophic health history. The last time he ate more than 100+ innings (which is 2008, 111.1 IP), Jeremy Guthrie was the #1 starter for the O's. However, he still has the fastball velocity (avg'd 93.1 mph versus the Yanks) and he's actually only 32, which is not young but consider that he debuted in 2005, on his age 23 season. McGowan could either deliver a gem of a start using his stuff or he could get shelled again. The Blue Jays are taking a leap of faith by counting that he'll be a reliable starter (which he hasn't been in 6 years) and they hope that he can deliver something impressive tonight.
You could agree that Tillman has been the saving grace for the rotation so far in 2014 - he earned a win facing the Red Sox on the opening day and almost delivered a complete game against the Tigers. The righty looks to extend his hot stretch versus the Blue Jays and he hasn't been particularly good against them. The current Jays position players have a .291/.331/.511 line against the righty (basically the same OPS as Carlos Quentin's career). Notably, the ever-dangerous Jose Bautista has a 1.103 OPS in 18 at-bats with two home runs - probably not the best news for odds especially given that Joey Bats is off to a 1.119 OPS start with league-leading four home runs. Colby Rasmus, who's off to a cold 3-for-30 start, has made a killing against Tillman with 1.429 OPS against with four extra base hits in 14 at-bats.
As for the lineup, by now you may know who's hot and who's not. You don't? Well, here are the "hot"'s.
After going 1-for-6 on the first two games, Delmon Young went on a tear in the last two games of the Yankees series by going 6-for-11 with a homer and a double. It's an extremely small sample but he did a good amount to help the team to take the series in the Bronx. Chris Davis, who's hit for a .303 average, is "toiling" at .736 OPS - it would be nice to see the extra base hits back as soon as possible.
The Blue Jays are 5-5 in their first ten games. The offense has been kind of slow to get going, but we have jumped from last in the AL in runs scored per game to 10th in the last 3 days. Playing against the Astros will do that for you. Wish we would have won last night. As a group, the Jays are hitting .223/.298/.394. 2nd worst batting average, 3rd worst in OBP and 7th best in Slugging.
Dioner played in 9 of our first 10 games. He hasn't been hitting all that great, .257/270/.371, with 4 doubles, 6 RBI, 1 walk and (just because Nick wrote that he hadn't struck out yet) he struck out once yesterday. He's only thrown out 1 of 9 base stealers, but other than that his defense has looked good to me. Or maybe I'm just comparing to JP. Why can't any Blue Jay catcher walk more than once every couple of weeks? And, of course, he stole a base.
Edwin played in all 10 games. He's having a very slow start, hitting .162/.244/.270 with 2 doubles 1 triple, 0 RBI and a stolen base. He is a slow starter, last year, after 10 games, he was hitting .132/.250/.263, and he had a very good season.It does seem to take him a while to get his timing down.
Ryan has been in all 10 games, but some of the time he's been a defensive replacement. He's had just 20 plate appearances, and has just 1 hit (a double) and 1 walk .053/.100/.105. His defense hasn't looked quite as spectacular to me, but then last year, he was coming in after Bonifacio, my defense would have looked pretty good after watching him.
Brett started all 10 games. He's not hitting at all, .108/.154/.189, with 1 home run, 3 RBI, 2 walks and 9 strikeouts. At least he's playing good defense.
Melky has been in all 10 games too, and he's been great. Hitting .333/.333/.644, with 2 doubles, 4 home runs, 5 RBI, 1 stolen base, 0 walks and 5 strikeouts. The 0 walks worries me a bit but then he must be seeing the ball well, he's hitting it hard. He looks to be running better.
Colby has been in all 10 games, but he came in as a pinch hitter in one. He's not hitting. .176/.263/.353, 3 doubles, 1 home run, 1 RBI, 3 walks and 13 strikeouts. He started slow last year too, he was hitting .222 in his first 10 games but he had 3 home runs. His defense has been great and he's thrown out 2 base runners.
Jose has started all 10 games, he's had an interesting time with the bat. With a .233/.452/.667 slash line. 1 double, 4 homers, 2 singles, 6 RBI, 12 walks and 6 strikeouts.
Adam played in 9 of the 10 games. He's been very good, .286/.444/.571, with 3 doubles, 1 home run, 6 RBI, 6 walks and 7 strikeouts. Just for the record, in case Zaun is reading, he's hitting .200/.333/.200 against lefties. HE SHOULDN'T BE STARTING AGAINST LEFTIES.
Josh caught the 3 games that Dickey started and it is hard to complain about what he's done, 6 at bats, 3 hits, 1 RBI, 1 caught stealing (I think it was a botched hit and run). It is a cool slash line .500/.500/.500. He hasn't had a passed ball yet. Pretty good for a guy catching a knuckleball.
The Blue Jays look to win two in a row tonight in Baltimore as Drew Hutchison takes on Bud Norris. The 29-year-old right hander has one horrid start under his belt this year giving up five runs on nine hits in five innings in Detroit. He's pretty solidly a fringe starter in the AL East and might have a rough year ahead of him if things keep going in the direction they're heading.
Bud Norris is mainly a fastball and slider pitcher with some changeups thrown in against left-handed hitters that don't work very well. He sits mid-90's with his fastballs so he has the ability to blow it by some people, but it just hasn't come together for him recently. In his lone start this year he actually threw 67% fastballs and 21% sliders so his pitch selection is pretty limited at this point in the season. His slider against right handers is usually located low and away, which seems to always cause big problems to the Blue Jays power hitters:
As mentioned by Stacey from Camden Chat, Bud Norris has a horrible time against lefties, which makes sense due to him featuring a fastball and slider along with a poor changeup.
But it's against the lefties that Bud Norris finds his doom. Lefties hit .273/.35/.450 against Norris in his career, and it's ultimately what will drive him out of a starting rotation. I am already imagining the damage that Adam Lind and Melky Cabrera are going to do to him.
I like the sound of that Stacey. Might as well get straight to the lineup that hopefully will knock Norris around this evening:
Yeah, so, last night stunk. Hope our #5 starter is better than is theirs. Also, happy Hardy day!
So, as Steve summarized, last night was not a fine time. The Orioles defense and offense look to rebound today with the return of J.J. Hardy from back spasm and hopefully David Lough getting out of the funk.
Hutchison won the fifth spot of the Jays rotation after missing majority of 2013 after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2012. He is still only 23 and they obviously liked what they saw him in 58.2 IP sample from 2012 (and what they saw in ST) to give him the starting job despite missing most of last year. So far, in two starts this year, Hutchison has had mixed results - 1-1, 8.2 IP with 10 K's but 6 BB's and 6ER's. He's not a guy who's regarded to have a super-high ceiling that people romanticize about young pitchers - averages around low-90's in fastball which he's thrown 75.8% of the time in the ML so it's not like he mixes secondary pitches that much (slider and change). However, at least in the minors, he was a strike-thrower with the cumulative 2.4 BB/9IP with 4.06 K/BB, which is good. I don't see him doing as well in ML as he did in minors anytime soon but again, he's still young and who knows how well he'll learn in ML.
Norris, in his lone start, was not good, allowing 5 ER's and 9 hits in 5IP versus the Tigers. The current Blue Jays lineup has hit Norris... quite well with .865 OPS. Which isn't the most encouraging thing but hey, it's a new day. If you want to weigh a lot from the past stats, Jose Reyes has a .375 avg against Norris in 16 AB's but he's out of the lineup. The only current Jays hitter who has hit a homer off him is Colby Rasmus and that looks like a blip in the radar - he only has a .659 OPS in 22 AB's against the righty.
The big news for the lineup is that Hardy will be back after the lower back injury has kept him out. Also, Steve Clevenger hitting 5th - quite interesting to me. He does have a .400 average this season in... whopping 5 AB's (both hits were a double and a triple, fun fact) and he had a hot bat in ST (1.207 OPS). It's something that I had not thought of as a possibility that much so it's amusing. Hope he does well (he's my high school alumnus!). The lineup did not show up well last night - hopefully the addition of Hardy and Lough are catalysts for something tonight? We shall see.
Where has all the offense gone. Long time passing.
Where has all the offense gone. Long time ago.
Anyway just a quick recap, we'll add stuff to it later on.
A lack of scoring wasted a good start from Crew Hutchison. Drew went 6 inning and allowed just 4 hits and 2 walks, with 5 strikeouts.
Neil Wagner started the 7th and gave up a run on 2 hits, to put us behind.
A Colby Rasmus 9th inning home tied it but that was all the offense we could manage. Just 7 hits in 12 innings. Bud Norris was good and all the pitchers were helped out by a large strike zone.
Todd Redmond pitched 3 good innings of relief but he couldn't make it through his 4th inning. He gave up a 1-out triple to Steve Lonbardozzi and a walk off single to David Lough.
The Orioles allowed a scoreless drought to stretch on to 15 innings before getting on the board. They overcame a blown save by Tommy Hunter to go on to a 2-1 win in the 12th thanks to a Steve Lombardozzi triple and a David Lough single.
Two outs in the ninth inning. Two strikes on the batter. The Orioles clung to a 1-0 lead. Their closer Tommy Hunter was on the mound. Colby Rasmus was at the plate. Everyone in Oriole Park at Camden Yards was on their feet and making noise. This was the pitch.
That is a swing, a strike out, and the end of the game. The home plate umpire did not call the swing. They appealed down to the third base umpire, who was working his first ever MLB game. That sounds like a joke, but it isn't. The guy was a one-game fill-in. He did not call a swing. Rasmus homered to tie the game and it ended up in extra innings.
The Orioles went on to win the game with some 2012-like extra-innings heroics. After a game of largely pathetic performance at the plate, including six innings where they only managed six baserunners against Blue Jays starter Drew Hutchison, and three straight innings where they went three up, three down against former Oriole Todd Redmond, the bottom third of the lineup delivered to send the Orioles home with a 2-1 victory in front of a crowd of 30,446 on Saturday night.
The twelfth inning was Redmond's fourth on the mound. J.J. Hardy opened up by giving a ball a ride that right fielder Jose Bautista caught as he stumbled into the fence in front of the grounds crew's shed. In August, it might have been gone, but instead it was an out.
No matter. Steve Lombardozzi came up next and put a charge into a meatball himself. Lombardozzi's ball cleared Rasmus in center field and bounced up and past Rasmus back towards the infield. He could not stop his momentum in time to field the ball cleanly. As Lombardozzi saw the misplay, he kicked in the afterburners and dug for third base, making it in for a sliding triple.
That put the winning run on third base with only one out. You might expect the Oriole pattern from the last couple of days to have held, but David Lough had enough of playing baseball tonight and he poked a single over the third baseman to give the Orioles the win in twelve innings.
The horrible offense was so bad that it masks something that should have been encouraging about the game: the outing by starter Bud Norris, who is normally warmed-over death against left-handed batters. The Jays lineup was stacked with lefties, with three left-handed batters and three switch-hitters. I expected disaster. The only disaster was the Jays offense while Norris was in the game. He pitched seven shutout innings, allowing five hits and three walks, and because his teammates hate him, there was a 0-0 score when he left the game.
That's got to be an all-too-familiar feeling for Norris. The O's game notes included the stat that he's gotten two runs or fewer of support in 16 of his last 32 starts, including tonight. Why did the Orioles look like garbage against a wild pitcher on a night where the strike zone was rather large? Why, indeed.
A two-out rally in the bottom of the seventh had Norris in position to get the win, if only the O's had held the lead for him. Lough, hero of the night, had a single to get on base, and with two outs, he was able to come all the way around from first to score when Jonathan Schoop smoked a double into the gap in right-center for the game's first - and, until the top of the ninth, only - run.
Norris looked good in this game. He looked a lot like we were told Ubaldo Jimenez would look, with the ball often on the ground. He had eight groundouts to seven air outs. Add in the five strikeouts and that will get it done. He lowered his ERA from 9 to 3.75 in this start. He navigated a lineup that had some real power threats and held them scoreless. He is not the Orioles starter anyone should hate the most at this time.
Among the meaningless things in the grand scheme of the universe that occurred in this game was the first replay challenge in Camden Yards history. I can tell my grandkids that I was there, except I'll probably forget about it. In the bottom of the fourth inning, Lombardozzi bunted a ball to third base that was fielded by Hutchison, who then threw the ball over to first. The throw was just high enough to pull Edwin Encarnacion off of the first base bag for a brief moment - in which Lombardozzi touched first base.
Or so the umpire ruled. Jays manager John Gibbons came out and, after getting the signal from his dugout, initiated an official replay. There was a delay of two minutes and 38 seconds while two umpires put on headsets and had someone in New York tell them that the call stood - meaning video evidence was inconclusive. Lough followed by conclusively grounding into a double play to end the inning, destroying what may have otherwise seemed like a promising scoring threat - Steve Clevenger, who had walked, was also on base.
That was the second time in the game that Gibbons had been out of the dugout. He also came out for the obligatory "I might challenge this, so I'm stalling" chat with an umpire after Chris Davis stole a base in the bottom of the first inning. You read that right. Davis took off on a two-strike count with Adam Jones at the plate - maybe he figured Jones would strike out to end the inning - and by all rights should have been a dead duck at second base. Instead, he pulled off a nice move to pull his upper body out of the way and slide in his hand safely.
It was a long and frustrating game, far longer and more frustrating than it needed to be, but the O's came out on top. They'll look to keep winning, and maybe even score some runs again, on Sunday afternoon, with Ubaldo Jimenez on the mound for a 1:35 game against Mark Buehrle and the Jays.
Notes
The Orioles are batting .194 so far in this series.
Nick Markakis extended his hitting streak to seven games with a third-inning single, but don't let that fool you, because his .271/.280/.333 slash line is complete garbage. Speaking of garbage, Melky Cabrera extended a hitting streak to twelve games with a double in the third.
Evan Meek and Darren O'Day each tossed a scoreless inning and Zach Britton tossed two. None has allowed a run yet this year. Britton pitched the 11th and 12th and got the win for the night.
Eight of the Orioles 11 games have been decided by one or two runs.
The Wondrous and Withering Weather – The Hardball Times At The Hardball Times, we spend a lot of time quantifying different events that occur on the baseball field. We don’t do this just because we can, but because we want to understand where value is created and lost. One of the areas where we don’t do a great job is with weather.
Harold Reynolds Announces Revolutionary Findings In Physics As Yasiel Puig and Josh Hamilton recently found out, sliding into first base is a dumb idea. It is, first, a good way to get hurt, and also everyone knows that it doesn't get you to the bag any faster, because the gains you make by getting closer to the bag are canceled out by negative acceleration and friction. What Harold Reynolds proposes, though, is that everyone is wrong. He's so sure of this that he went on TV last night and attempted to revolutionize man's understanding of the physical universe.
Jose Abreu And Danny Salazar Make Meaningless Game Something Special If you're the kind of person who lacks the requisite attention span to sit through all nine innings of a baseball game, last night's game between the White Sox and Indians was perfect for you. You only needed to stick around for five innings of baseball in order to catch all of the awesomeness packed within the game, including Danny Salazar pitching like strikeouts and home runs are the only true outcomes, and Jose Abreu turning two more baseballs into ICBMs.
Hawk Harrelson Should Probably Not Suggest "Asians" Are "Deceptive" After a pitch that caught Alexei Ramirez swinging and missing, Hawk declared it to be an example of "typical Asian motion. Deception involved!" You know, compared to North American pitchers, who tell batters which pitch they're going to throw ahead of time.
BAD BRACKET LINKS
Proof That America Fills Out March Madness Brackets Like Idiots You're looking at a chart from Stephen Pettigrew's look at 11 million brackets yesterday. Pay special attention to the spike at 680 points, though. It's the strangest damn thing you'll see today.
TODAY IN BAD BASERUNNING HISTORY
Baseball History - April 13th - National Pastime - Baseball History 1984 On the same date he got his first major league hit 21-years earlier, Pete Rose, as a member of the Expos, doubles off Phillies hurler Jerry Koosman for his 4000th hit, becoming the first player in the National League to reach the milestone. Montreal beats Philadelphia in the Friday the 13th contest at Olympic Stadium, 5-1.
2012 Josh Thole's bizarre base running blunder leads to a very odd double play in the second inning of the Mets' 5-2 victory at Citizens Bank Park. After successfully reaching second base on R.A. Dickey's sacrifice bunt, the 25 year-old Mets' catcher shocks everyone, including the Philadelphia defense, by trying to return to first base where he is tagged out to complete the unusual 3-1-6-4 twin killing.
Ranking and tiering the two-start pitchers for Week 3, including Jesse Chavez, Juan Nicasio and Brandon Morrow.
The first two weeks of the season have allowed me to recommend two-starters with ownerships in the 20 percent range (my ideal goal in this exercise), but Week 3's slate isn't as kind. With fewer options to my liking, all of my streaming suggestions below are currently owned in less than five percent of ESPN leagues. This might be a week to exercise caution when streaming. Good luck!
Here are my results through Week 1:
3-2 (Win-Loss) 7.34 K/9 1.19 BB/9 3.18 ERA 0.86 WHIP
Chavez dominated Minnesota in his previous outing, tossing six innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts and no walks. It would have been Chavez's first win of the young season, but defunct closer Jim Johnson had other plans. It was the Twins, mind you, but the 30-year-old right-hander has at times looked unhittable through two turns in Oakland's rotation, recording a 13-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 13 innings and an elite 55.6 percent ground-ball percentage. While his career pitching slash of 5.27/4.56/4.20 paints a different picture, take advantage of Chavez's hot start and a pair of favorable matchups in Week 3. The Astros lead the majors with a 26.4 percent strikeout rate.
I had high hopes for Nicasio last year, but inconsistencies and injuries led to an underwhelming campaign, including a 9-9 record and 5.14 ERA. There's always added risk whenever you start a pitcher in Coors, but Nicasio is one Rockies' starter I can't quit. The 27-year-old owns a career pitching slash of 4.87/4.01/3.99, but he did post a respectable 2.2 fWAR in 157 2/3 innings a year ago -- his previous high was 1.4 fWAR in 71 2/3 innings (2011). In five career starts against the Padres, Nicasio is 2-0 with a 2.87 ERA and a 38-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 31 1/3 innings. The Phillies, meanwhile, are middle-of-the-pack in home runs.
I bought multiple shares of Morrow last season, only to see the 29-year-old go 2-3 in 10 starts with a 5.63 ERA. I don't own him anywhere this year, but don't think I haven't noticed his 13-to-2 strikeout to walk ratio in 11 innings, as well as his 12.1 percent swinging strike rate. His velocity is up (94.5 mph), and so far his command has been fantastic. I wouldn't bet on sustained success, but you have to like his chances of bringing home one win with a matchup against Minnesota's Phil Hughes. Give him a chance and hope for the best.
A strong spring earned Erlin a temporary place in the Padres' starting five after Josh Johnson (forearm) landed on the disabled list; the 23-year-old is expected to stay there for five weeks while Johnson recovers. Erlin pitched Game 2 of last week's double header against the Indians at Progressive Field, notching the win and quality start for the Friars, allowing one run in six frames with six strikeouts and no free passes. The southpaw has regularly posted strikeout rates north of 10 strikeouts per nine in the minors, but he hasn't enjoyed the same success against big-league bats (career K/9 of 6.90). Erlin is a fly-ball pitcher, which makes his first two starts of the year in spacious Petco Park manageable.
The series is on the line today as the Blue Jays face off against the Orioles this afternoon at 1:30pm in Baltimore. Lefty Mark Buehrle is on the mound for Toronto against free agent signing Ubaldo Jimenez for the Orioles. Jimenez signed a four-year $50 million contract this offseason after being pursued by a variety of teams, including the Blue Jays. The 30-year-old right hander has been pretty dreadful so far this season getting hit around by fellow AL East rivals Boston and New York. In 10.2 innings, he has allowed eight earned runs on 13 hits along with eight walks.
As many people know, Jimenez relies on his sinker to rack up groundball outs, although this year the groundball pitcher currently has a GB% of 18.8, which is going to be a big problem if that keeps up going forward. Along with the sinker, the Dominican native features a four-seamer, slider, and splitter.
Since first pitch is creeping close we'll jump right to the lineups:
Thanks to Mariano Rivera's retirement and David Robertson's current injury, the Yankees needed someone to step up in their bullpen; Adam Warren has done just that.
Once spring camp broke, the Yankees decided to take three pitchers who can start in David Phelps, Adam Warren, and Vidal Nuno to Houston and placed them in their bullpen. Given all three can start, it was unclear how exactly they'd be used and who would stand out among the three. Through a week-and-a-half, however, it is Warren who has separated himself from the rest.
When CC Sabathia struggled during the first two innings of the very first game against the Astros, Adam Warren was spotted in the bullpen warming up. This kind of made sense, because Warren was used as the team's traditional long-man last summer. He never entered the game, though, as Sabathia was able to settle down and hold the Astros to six runs through six innings. But, at the time, it figured Warren would, once again, settle in as the team's long-guy who pitched in mostly lower-leveraged spots as opposed to more pressure situations.
Two games later, though, on April 3, Warren was used in a pressure spot instead of a long-relief role. Ivan Nova walked his fifth batter of the evening and was only at 88 pitches, but Joe Girardi had seen enough. The manager went to Warren in a one-run game against Astros' shortstop Jonathan Villar and the right-hander got a quick three-pitch strikeout. After the Yankees tacked on an insurance run, Warren proceeded to pitch a nice and easy 1-2-3 seventh which included a strikeout and two weak ground outs.
Next up was the April 6 win against the Toronto Blue Jays. As you may recall, this was the game where CC allowed a lead-off homer to Melky Cabrera in the first and proceeded to cruise until the second out of the sixth inning. It was a 6-1 game with two out in the sixth, but some balls were hit hard and some other balls found holes and just like that it was 6-4. Instead of using a long-guy or whatever to soak up the final three innings of a five-run game, the Yankees had to go to someone they could trust in the late innings of a two-run game, and, once again, that was Warren. Facing the 8-9-1 batters, Warren was able to induce short flyballs to Moises Sierra and Jonathan Diaz before getting Cabrera to ground back to Warren for the third out. After just a couple of scoreless outings, Warren really seemed to earn Girardi's trust.
Warren's next outing was another pressure spot, this time coming during the team's home opener against the Baltimore Orioles. After Hiroki Kuroda, Matt Thornton, and David Phelps combined to keep the score at 4-2 through the seventh, Girardi went to Warren in a two-run game to pitch the eighth. Instead of pitching against the Astros' and Blue Jays' respective bottom of the lineups, Warren had to face the top of the Orioles' order. He first walked David Lough (whoops) to lead off the inning, thus Vidal Nuno began to warm up thereafter. Warren was able to get the next two batters, Nick Markakis and Adam Jones, to flyout, which set up last year's home run leader, Chris Davis, as the tying run. Instead of going to the lefty Nuno in that spot, Girardi stuck with his right-hander and Warren rewarded his manager with a big strikeout of Davis to keep the game at 4-2.
The Yankees have kept going to Warren in close, late-inning games and the right-hander has continued to flourish. During Wednesday's game against Baltimore, Warren came in a tie game in the eighth and was able to keep the game right where it was with two weak fly balls after allowing Adam Jones and Matt Wieters to reach base. In Friday's contest, the Yankees were trailing by two runs against the Red Sox, and Warren was able to hold the game at 4-2 through the top of the eighth. And, finally, in Saturday's game, Warren kept the Yankees ahead 6-4 with another easy 1-2-3 inning, which included strikeouts of Xander Bogaerts and Jonathan Herrera, with a weak ground out of A.J. Pierzynski in between.
Because he pitched in mostly mop-up situations last year, Adam Warren's average leverage index when entering a game was at just 0.56 (anything above 1.0 is higher pressure and anything below 1.0 is lower pressure). This figure, of course, was the lowest among Yankee relievers who made at least 30 relief appearances in 2013. Through his first six appearances of 2014, Warren's average leverage index has more than doubled, sitting at 1.34. That's a pretty big jump for a guy who pitched in mostly low-leveraged situations in 2013.
In terms of Warren's pitch usage and velocity in 2013 and through his first six appearances of 2014? Here are the numbers provided by Brooks Baseball:
four-seam
sinker
curve
slider
change up
2013
28% (94 mph)
22% (93 mph)
10.8% (80.5 mph)
20.6% (86 mph)
18.5% (84.6 mph)
2014
34.7% (94.4 mph)
2.7% (94.4 mph)
10.67% (81 mph)
28% (87 mph)
24% (84.8 mph)
I'm a little surprised that Warren's fastball velocity hasn't jumped much at all now that he's in more of a one-inning role as opposed to a long-man role, but maybe that's a small sample thing. What is different about the two sets of data, though, is the usage of his pitches. Warren has thrown his four-seamer, change, and slider more this season than he did in 2013. He still is throwing his curve about the same amount of time this year than he did last year, but it's clear his three go-to pitches are the four-seamer, slider, and change.
When the Yankees voluntarily decided to stay in-house to fill out the rest of their bullpen (Matt Thornton being the exception), we knew someone needed to step up. David Robertson replaced Rivera as closer and Shawn Kelley replaced Robertson as setup man, but we didn't really know who would replace Kelley as the seventh inning guy. Personally, I thought Warren would be one of the last guys who'd fill that role, but so far he has passed with flying colors, as shown by his 0.00 ERA and 1.88 FIP. Sure, there's a lot of season left to be played, and bullpens can change quite a bit as the season progresses, but Warren has done a great job in the late innings of close games for the Yankees.
It certainly is more fun watching games when you are hitting. I'm hoping it isn't just that Ubaldo Jimenez was terrible, though he was terrible, but we'll hope that the this is the game that starts a hot stretch with the bats.
Some of the offensive highlights:
Melky Cabrera: 2 for 6, with a double. He has hit in all 13 games.
Colby Rasmus: 3 for 4, with a home run and a double and 3 RBI.
Brett Lawrie: 2 for 5, home run and double. So good to see him hit the ball hard.
Ryan Goins: 1 for 4 with a walk. His hit (a single) hit the right field wall on the fly.
Jonathan Diaz: put down the best suicide squeeze bunt you will ever see. Pitch was up and out of the strike zone, but Diaz got the bat up above the ball and put it on the ground. Just a great job.
17 hits in all. I doubt we've had 17 hits over any two game stretch.
Mark Buehrle went 7 innings, allowed just 5 hits, no walks, 2 strikeouts, and just the 1 earned run. He is 3-0 with a 0.86 ERA. He was helped by some great defense. Lawrie made a couple of great plays. Rasmus had 2 terrific catches in CF. Bautista made a nice catch too.
I'm wondering if the difference between Buehrle this year and last is mostly the defense behind him. Last year we couldn't make a play, Lawrie was hurt, Reyes was hurt, Melky couldn't run. The defense was just terrible. This year it is much better.
There were a couple of bad moments, hardly worth mentioning now. Bautista was thrown out at second, trying to stretch a double. Diaz double clutched on a ball that should have been an easy out, but he turned it into a single, I'd have called it an error. And Esmil Rogers gave up back-to-back homers to Chris Davis and Matt Wieters, in the 8th. Fortunately the game was won by then.
And the left field line ball girl made a nice grab on a ball Edwin hit down the line, unfortunately it was fair. I thought Lind might have scored from first on the play, if she hadn't made the play. But we scored the runners, so we can forgive, now. . Most of us make our mistakes with less people watching.
Maicer Izturis came out of the game, after the top of the first, with a sprained knee. No word yet on if he will have to go on the DL. Colby Rasmus came out of the game in the 6th, likely just to give him some rest and let Moises Sierra get a few innings. Jose Bautista played the last three innings in CF.
Jays of the Day: Buehrle (.203 WPA), Rasmus (.177), Encarnacion (.151) and I'm giving one to Lawrie, .095, not counting the great plays on defense.
No Suckage Jays. Navarro had the low mark at -.081.
Back above .500, 7-6 and, likely, back into a tie for first. The Rays are losing 12-4 to the Reds I write this. We start a series in Minnesota on Tuesday...hmmm if I left now I could drive to Minneapolis and get there for that game....Brandon Morrow starts for the Jays. Phil Hughes, with a 7.20 ERA starts for the Twins.
Nice to see the hitters having fun, it seems like a long time since that has happened.
We had 1407 comments in the game thread. Pretty good for a Sunday afternoon game. And a very pleasant thread, thanks to all for joining in. Pikachu let the way again, though I gave him a bit of a battle today.
Chris Davis tried to make up for his team's lackluster offense and terrible pitching by hitting his first jack of the season.
After two mediocre starts to the 2014 season, Ubaldo Jimenez was surely looking to rebound. But he looked erratic to start the game and ran his pitch count up early. He needed 27 pitches to get through the first, and he wasn't throwing first-pitch strikes. On the 10th pitch of the game, Colby Rasmus started what would be a 3-for-4 day with a solo shot to make it 1-0 Jays.
The Orioles were aggressive against Jays starter Mark Buehrle, with "aggressive" being a synonym for "impatient". Nick Markakis singled on the first pitch he saw, Delmon Young doubled him to third on the second pitch of his plate appearance, and Adam Jones grounded out — scoring Markakis — on the first pitch of his plate appearance. Whew.
With the game now tied at 1, Jimenez worked quickly in the third, retiring Cabrera and Rasmus on just four pitches before Jose Bautista rocketed a ball over Young’s head in left field. A sure double, or so Bautista thought. Young fired a laser to second base in time to nail Bautista, ending the inning. It was a heads-up play that most fielders would've given up on. Meanwhile, the O's put two runners on but did not score in the bottom half. Jones did record the 1000th hit of his career.
Jimenez came unglued a bit in a wacky fourth inning. He walked Lind to lead off the inning, and Encarnacion ripped the first pitch he saw down the third-base line. The umpire signaled fair but the ball girl fielded the ball as it rolled by. It was scored a ground rule double and Lind was placed at third. He scored on a Dioner Navarro groundout to make it 2-1 Jays, and Encarnacion himself scored three pitches later on a suicide squeeze by Jonathan Diaz. 3-1 Jays.
Jimenez looked much sharper in the fifth, but Toronto smacked him around in the sixth. You could hear the sharp cracks off the bats of Diaz (flyout to deep LF), Lawrie (home run, 4-1 Jays), and Goins (long single off the right-field wall). With Jimenez at 98 pitches and struggling, Buck pulled the trigger and brought in Josh Stinson to relieve. Melky Cabrera cracked a high chopper that bounced over Chris Davis’s head and into right field for a freak double. Colby Rasmus then singled past a drawn-in infield to score both runners, making it 6-1 Jays. Bautista popped out, but Lind singled and Encarnacion slammed a double into the gap that scored both runners. 8-1 Jays. Mercifully, Encarnacion was tagged out between second and third to end the inning.
The O’s did nothing worth mentioning in the 6th or 7th. In fact they looked like they were trying to get things over as quickly as possible. Jones, in particular, swung at the first pitch in nearly every plate appearance. Some sparks flew in the 8th, though. In the top half, Bautista crushed a three-run homer off Stinson to push Toronto’s lead to 11-1. And in the bottom half, Davis and Matt Wieters went back-to-back to nudge the score to 11-3. Jonathan Schoop impressed Gary Thorne with a nice two-out double in the bottom of the ninth.
Tomorrow the O’s look to rebound against Chris Archer and the Tampa Bay Rays. They’ll send out Wei-Yin Chen to try and start the series off on a good note.
Maicer Izturis goes onto the DL with the sprained knee. Too bad to Maicer, it looked like he was taking over the second base job. Barry Davis had this:
Izturis tripped on dugout stairs just prior to game. Felt 2 pops. Says he's concerned with what he may have done to it. #bluejays
Munenori Kawasaki gets a call up. Start marking those All-Star ballots today. I'm a fan, so I'm happy to see him. It is nice to be reminded that baseball is fun. You have to love players that enjoy it.
J.A. Happ also comes off the DL and up to Toronto, after two rehab starts, one in Dunedin (5 innings,3 hits, 2 earned, 1 walk, 5 strikeouts) and one in Buffalo (4.2, 5 hits, 1 earned, 2 walks and 6 strikeouts). More from Davis:
Gibbons says rotation will remain as is. J.A. Happ will move to, what will once again be an 8 man bullpen. #BlueJays
So we are back to the 8-man bullpen. You know how much I love that. I'd imagine Happ will be in the bullpen at least for now. That would give us three lefties and five right-handers in the pen. I don't know how they will find work for all those games. I guess it gives them more people to use while Santos sits in a late inning tie game.
Also, the Jays are saying that Colby Rasmus came out of the game with a tight hamstring. They say it isn't serious.
While Jose Bautista might be known for his power, it's not the only place where he excels.
When Jose Bautista broke onto the scene in 2010 with a Godzilla-like 54 home runs—a far cry from the 16, 15, 15, and 13 that he hit in the four previous seasons, respectively—he immediately graduated into the class of baseball's elite power hitters. That designation, of course, is well deserved: since 2010, he has posted a 14.90 PA/HR, the best in the MLB for qualified batters between 2010 and 2013 by a long shot, with Giancarlo Stanton in second place at 17.11 PA/HR.
But, while his power is what he's become known for, it's not his only attribute that hovers in the league's upper echelon; Bautista's plate discipline is just as impressive as his gaudy power.
To display just how patient Bautista is at the plate, here are his walk percentages from 2010 to 2013, accompanied by where those percentages ranked among qualified hitters each year:
*In 2012, he didn't reach the qualified number of plate appearances, but his 14.8% BB% would have ranked him fourth.
The outlier—and the most jaw-dropping stat—here is his 20.2% BB% in 2011. Of all hitters since 1973, Bautista's 20.2% BB% is tied for 27th best in a single season. Let me repeat: in the last forty—yes, forty—years, Jose Bautista's 20.2% BB% is the 27th best out of every qualified hitter in the Major Leagues. If you take out the God of Walks, also known as Barry Bonds, Bautista's 20.2% BB% jumps to the 20th best in a single season in that time span.
So, in addition to bashing home runs at a league-best rate, he's also drawing walks better than almost anyone year-over-year, and occasionally doing it at an historically significant rate. Impressive, right?
Just for fun—and because I know you're likely curious—take a guess at Bautista's BB% through 51 plate appearances in 2014. Ready? It's a ridiculous 31.4%, which towers over second place Jed Lowrie's 26.5%. It's a small sample size, of course, and it will certainly regress, but his ability to see the strike zone is remarkable.
Now, to put the impact that Bautista's hefty walk percentage has on his overall offensive production into some perspective. From 2010 to 2013, Bautista's .390 OBP ranks eighth out of all qualified hitters. Of the seven players above him, five have a batting average at .300 or higher and the other two are just a hair behind:
Of course, it's not surprising to see that players with high on base percentages have high batting averages. But, Bautista is the exception to the rule. His average over that time period is just .268. In fact, Bautista and Lance Berkman are the only players over that time span with a batting average under .270 and an OBP above .370. Ah, the power of taking walks.
If you want to think of Jose Bautista as a power hitter, by all means, be my guest. But to think of him as only a power hitter would be a true disservice to what he does almost every time he steps to the plate.
Evan Kendall is a featured writer at Beyond the Box Score, co-founder of The Sports Post, and contributor to Athletics Nation. You can follow him on Twitter at @Evan_TSP.
A quick look at a popular boom/bust strategy employed by Daily Fantasy players.
Welcome back, today we'll focus on a common strategy used in Daily Fantasy: lineup stacking. By rostering a slate of players from the same team, you can take advantage of a statistical compound effect, wherein players' fates become interlinked.
Let's look at the anatomy of a successful stack I deployed last Tuesday (FanDuel scoring & pricing):
The White Sox were playing the Rockies at Coors with two lefties on the mound, Franklin Morales and Jose Quintana. I- along with many others- anticipated a high scoring afternoon. But instead of loading up on Rockies I decided to play it contrarian, stacking the "lesser" offensive team. In the top of the 7th, Adam Eaton led off with a HBP, which Marcus Semien followed up with a single: 2 points. Then, Jose Abreu launched a 3-run home run, scoring both Semien and Eaton and pushing the inning point total to 11. By stacking three players at the top of a high scoring lineup, I was able to parlay their success into even greater success.
Also of note, in this particular lineup I had enough salary remainder to upgrade from Alexei Ramirez to Troy Tulowitzki, or Marcus Semien to David Wright (who was 0-ferred courtesy of Aaron Harang). As I mentioned last week, one of the most common mistakes I see folks make is falling for the salary trap; don't worry about leaving money on the table.
The downside of the stack is obvious: sometimes the pitcher you target as the day's piñata does his best Walter Johnson impression (see the aforementioned Aaron Harang), leaving you barren in tears with a blanket. The tactic is decidely boom or bust, but if the game you pick explodes, you have an excellent shot at raking in the dough.
Here is a look at some potential games to target tomorrow (Tuesday):
Baltimore visits Boston in our Game of the Week. We've got your fantasy preview here.
Fake Teams Game of the Week rolls on this week with another appearance from the Boston Red Sox, as they play host to fellow basement dweller Baltimore. Don't forget to vote in our poll.
Recently: This weekend's Yankees series had all the drama you might expect from such a rivalry, highlighted by accusations of ball doctoring on Thursday and a botched replay on Saturday. The Red Sox dropped 3 of 4, but they had some unlucky breaks. They're skidding, and one would expect them to pull out of it, but there are worries about Dustin Pedroia's injured wrist, which was reported to not be fractured today.
Fun with fantasy:Mike Napoli hit his third home run Sunday night in Boston's loss to New York. The backstop turned first baseman is off to a torrid start, hitting .300/.386/.520. More importantly, he's playing everyday. This is his first year without catcher eligibility, so his draft stock was down, but his production is certainly corner infield quality. This start won't last forever - numbers that good rarely do - but this is a promising start for somebody who was supposed to be done two years ago.
Recently: The Os followed up their series win over the Yankees by losing two out of three to the Blue Jays to fall to 5-7 on the season, just 1/2 game ahead of Boston. Ubaldo Jimenez continued his early-season poor form on Sunday with a 5.1 IP, 10 H, 5 ER, 2 BB, 3 K performance, and home runs from Chris Davis and Matt Wieters weren't enough to close the gap. The narrative early in the season is the lineup's impatience, as Baltimore has drawn just 24 walks in 12 games.
Fun with fantasy: Chris Davis has followed up his 53 home run 2013 with a relatively slow start, hitting his first on Sunday. The strikeouts are down, which is encouraging, but he's swinging and missing more. As a first round pick this spring, owners will need him to pick up the pace.
The Ballpark
Contrary to popular belief, Fenway Park suppresses home runs, but the reputation likely persists because it is overall a very good run environment. The Green Monster can change doubles into singles, but the funky corner in deep center field is a Bermuda Triangle for baseballs.
This Week
Baltimore hosts Tampa Bay for three games and get a day off Thursday before traveling to Boston. The Red Sox have today off, then go to Chicago for a three-game set with the White Sox.
The Blue Jays worst fears have come true in the case of Maicer Izturis' injured leg. After falling down the dugout steps in Baltimore this weekend, it now seems like he is heading towards surgery and a long road to recovery. Here's the tweet from Arash Madani that brought the bad news:
Per the #Bluejays: Maicer Izturis has a complete tear of his lateral collateral ligament, needs surgery and has 4-6 months of recovery ahead
Izturis had impressed so far this year, hitting .286 in 11 games brining some stability to the middle infield that had been dealt a blow by Jose Reyes' early-season DL stint. He'll seek a second opinion, but it appears surgery is inevitable and the middle infield will feature Jonathan Diaz, Munenori Kawasaki, and Ryan Goins until Reyes is ready to return. It also means a 40-man spot will be opened up to allow Kawasaki to join Toronto without another player needing to be removed to make room.
#BlueJays announce Maicer Izturis will need surgery to repair complete tear of the LCL in his knee. 4-6 months rehab. Will seek 2nd opinion.
Chicago adds the oft-injured former closer in an effort to bolster their bullpen depth.
The Chicago White Sox have signed veteran reliever Frank Francisco to a minor league contract, tweets the Charlotte Knights, the Triple-A affiliate of the White Sox. As you've probably guessed, Chicago immediately assigned Francisco to Triple-A.
Frank Francisco signed and assigned to #CLTKnights today.
The 34-year-old right-hander began his major league career with the Texas Rangers in 2004. Over the past 10 years, Francisco has compiled a career 3.93 ERA (114 ERA+), 3.62 FIP, and a 9.9 K/9. From 2009-2012, he served as the closer for the Rangers, Blue Jays, and Mets, netting 73 saves. Francisco was horrendous in 2012 (5.47 ERA though his FIP was much better at 3.90) during the first year of a two-year, $12.5 million deal he signed with the Mets as a free agent. The Mets planned to have him return as their closer last season, but he ultimately made just 8 appearances for the team due to elbow issues that kept him out for a majority of the season.
Always a hard thrower (career 94 MPH average fastball velocity), Francisco should provide solid depth for a White Sox bullpen that is currently missing their best pitcher (Nate Jones, who is recovering from lower back issues) and inspires little elsewhere. Right now, Francisco is set to serve as Triple-A fodder, but it wouldn't be surprising to see him play an important role in the back of Chicago's bullpen by season's end.
A cold night awaits the Blue Jays this evening as they roll into to Minnesota to take on the Twins at 8:10 EST. First-year Twins pitcher Phil Hughes takes on Brandon Morrow in what is expected to be a frigid evening at Target Field. Hughes, a former Yankee, inked a three-year $24 million contract this offseason with Minnesota which seems like a fair deal for both parties. So far this season Hughes has been consistently inconsistent in his first two starts, pitching 10 innings and allowing eight earned runs. As a fly ball pitcher, his success essentially rests in how many balls soar into the Target Field seats and how many fly into his outfielders' mitts.
This is how the Twins are setting up these days, with Joe Mauer now permanently at first base:
That's right, his horrid slider that he threw the most behind his fastball in 2013 has been scrapped and his repertoire is now completely different. Like the tweet says, Hughes has become a predominantly fastball, cutter pitcher only bringing down the velocity when throwing his curveball. This is good news for Jose Bautista and his fellow Blue Jays power hitters who can focus on the fastball and be aggressive with Hughes' more predictable pitch selection:
Hopeful Lineup
This middle infield situation is going to be a rough ride until Jose Reyes returns.
Hold on, there. They can still make lemonade out of the Mets' and Marlins' lemons.
Here's something fans and writers alike seem to dig: when previously forgettable teams have a ridiculously productive offseason. One year they're starting several different Alex Gonzalezes, shuffling to a fourth-place finish, and the next they're wheeling and dealing, in on almost every free agent, trading prospects and going for it.
Man, how we love going for it. Before the 2012 season, the Marlins were a hot pick in the NL East. Before the 2013 season, the Blue Jays were a hot pick for the World Series. Those star-crossed franchises made us all rethink the power of the busy offseason, but it was fun while it lasted. Just last season, there was so much danged excitement about the Blue Jays. Look at this Opening Night swagger:
Back then there was all sorts of Blue Jays. So much Blue Jays. Yet, nothing changed. The franchise is stuck in a massive gravitational pull that sucks every roster into a void between 74 and 84 wins, regardless of hope and swagger. Roy Halladay and Roger Clemens winning Cy Youngs, Jose Bautista hitting 50 dingers, a new, exciting roster with R.A. Dickey and Jose Reyes … all sucked right into the maw of the 80ish-win void.
It's time, over a year later, to look at the fork in the road for the Blue Jays. What did they do, what could they have done differently, and what would their franchise look like if they never went for it? The goal isn't to irritate Blue Jays fans, but to engage in a thought exercise. And to find another excuse for the Geddy/Ace GIF. Mission half-accomplished.
Noah Syndergaard Travis d'Arnaud Yunel Escobar Henderson Alvarez Adeiny Hechavarria Wuilmer Becerra Anthony DeSclafani Justin Nicolino Jake Marisnick Jeff Mathis
Or, to dumb it down: One of the very best pitching prospects in baseball, a highly regarded catching prospect still trying to stick in a major league lineup, a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop, a low-cost starting pitcher, a questionable big-league shortstop, several prospects of varying promise, and Jeff Mathis.
What they got
Mark Buehrle Jose Reyes R.A. Dickey Emilio Bonifacio Josh Johnson
They also signed Melky Cabrera and Maicer Izturis before the 2013 season, and they rolled out of the hammock long enough to sign Dioner Navarro before this season.
Total payroll committed, after the cash-back rebate from Jeffrey Loria
$205.5 million
The most poignant description of how that's worked out for them
That's the stuff you know, more or less. The Jays decided to go for it, and the going for it didn't work. Then they lost the go in the go-for-it. Now they're dormant, like an underground cicada, waiting for …something. And you get the feeling that the Blue Jays want some of those players back. Like that Syndergaard kid. He's good, right? Seems like he's good. If there are some Blue Jays fans who can email me their thoughts on Noah Syndergaard to help with this article…
But more than wallowing in the past, I want to rewrite history. Is this the worst spot the Blue Jays can be in? Did they do irreparable damage to their abilities to contend in the present and future?
Best-case alternate reality
Noah Syndergaard is still in the organization, and he comes up to become the prophesied ace. Travis d'Arnaud develops into a power-hitting big-league catcher. Henderson Alvarez continues to exhibit one of the most striking stuff-to-strikeout gaps in the majors, but holds down a rotation spot for very little money. Yunel Escobar continues to produce in the field and occasionally at the plate. The money spent on Reyes, Johnson, Dickey, and Buehrle is applied instead to free agents who make an immediate impact, like Zack Greinke.
The Blue Jays contend. And they have Syndergaard for the next six or seven years.
Noah Syndergaard (Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports)
Worst-case alternate reality
The Blue Jays take the savings from a Marlins trade they didn't make and sign Josh Hamilton and B.J. Upton.
Really, it was easy to waste money on the free-agent market last offseason. The Red Sox pulled a nifty sleight-of-hand by having almost all of their free agents work out. The rest of the league was stuck with Uptons and Bourns and Youkili all disappointing to various degrees. The alternative to a big-trade splash was a Josh Hamilton splash.
Had that happened, the Blue Jays would have a payroll albatross, less talent on the current roster, and there's still a chance that they would have traded Syndergaard and d'Arnaud. For... James Shields? Dunno. But the point is that in the worst-case alternate reality, the Blue Jays can still screw up even more. There were worse ways to spend the money, and worse players to acquire in a win-now deal.
It's still too early to grade the Blue Jays' decision to go for it. Mark Buehrle is off to a fantastic start. R.A. Dickey isn't, but there still a strong chance for him to contribute, with the velocity of his angry knuckler coming back in the second half last year. While it's easy to mourn Jose Reyes's hamstrings of polenta, he's still just 30. He could have another couple of good seasons. Josh Johnson and Emilio Bonifacio are gone, as are the prospects, but if the Jays get productive seasons from the three players remaining on the roster this year -- as well as the minor free agents signed to buttress their decision to play for the present instead of the future -- the Syndergaard sting won't be as painful.
The Marlins and Mets deals don't look good right now, but before we all write the postmortem about how they ruined the franchise, let's remember that it wasn't a deal made for 2013 and 2013 alone. It was supposed to be a deal to help the Jays contend for a couple of years. This is still one of those years.
It still might work. A year later, everything looks like ash and feathers, but it still might work. The disappointment from last year, combined with the inactivity of the offseason, makes it seem like the Blue Jays are hopelessly adrift. Give it one more year, though, before burying them in a shoebox in your backyard. Wait for Syndergaard's first major league pitch before assuming he was more likely to be a part of the next good Blue Jays team than Dickey is right now.
It doesn't look good. Some would say it looks awful, stupid, short-sighted, completely debilitating, devastating, impulsive, unrealistic, one of the... you get the point. And by next year, they might be right. But here's to the Blue Jays getting one more chance with the veterans. It just might be crazy enough to work, after being crazy enough to fail completely.
