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Just how early is it for the Yankees?

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Spare me the gloom.

Derek Jeter is old, until he hits a single and a double, providing the team's only offense and raising his batting average ten points.

The 2B/3B platoon is barely hitting, but the dynasty teams featured a third baseman who hit .247/.307/.414 and a second baseman who couldn't make the throw to first.

The rotation is a mess. I actually don't have a pithy reply for this- the rotation is a mess, and if at least one of CC Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda can't look like themselves soon and for the rest of the season, the road to the playoffs becomes exponentially more difficult.

But this is the important thing-

Today, the Orioles lead the AL East with a .516 winning percentage, which wouldn't be second place in any other division. The Blue Jays, in last, are only three losses off the pace.

May 6 LeaderWin%Regular Season LeaderWin%
2014 Orioles.517
2013 Red Sox.645Red Sox.599
2012 Rays.679Yankees.586
2011 Yankees.586Yankees.599
2010 Rays.741Rays.593


Maybe the 2014 standings will end just like this, with all five teams in the AL East grinding each other into the ground.

Yesterday, Jim wrote about the grim picture painted by the Yankees' run differential. I'd like to offer an alternative narrative.

With two under-30 starters on the DL, and two over-30 starters showing the wear of years, the Yankees have stayed afloat, and thankfully the AL East looks equally flawed. Only Toronto sports a positive run differential (+3), and only Toronto has shown an above average offense so far this season.

In the lineup, only Jacoby Ellsbury, Ichiro Suzuki, Mark Teixeira, Kelly Johnson and Yangervis Solarte are outperforming their projected offensive output; in that group, only Ichiro is wildly outperforming. Meanwhile, for all our worries (and despite some obvious deficiencies) overall, the Yankees have played their defense just a touch below average. Ellsbury and Beltran have been the big negative contributors, and no one has shown the catastrophic defense many predicted.


The Suddenly Interesting Juan Francisco

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When the Blue Jays signed Juan Francisco, it was thought to be a trivial roster depth move, but when pressed into action Francisco has turned heads.

On April 1st 2014 the Toronto Blue Jays signed 1B/3B Juan Francisco to a minor league contract that seemed barely noteworthy at the time.

In the general scheme of things there is a very good chance this signing will go down as an insignificant move to this franchise's trajectory, but two things have taken place since April 1st that make it more interesting than one could have anticipated.

1) Adam Lind got hurt.

When Adam Lind went on the DL with a back injury Juan Francisco got a chance to get some playing time at the major league level. Francisco provides very little defensive value so he needed the Jays to lose their primary first baseman or DH to get the call. The fact that the 26-year-old is a left-handed bat also made it easy for him to slip into Lind's role.

2) Francisco started raking.

If Francisco had come up to the Jays and performed around his career averages there would be nothing noteworthy about his presence. After all, if the Dominican slugger continued the "low average, low OBP, occasional dinger" pattern that has characterized his career Jays fans would be groaning and praying for the return of Lind.

Instead, the Blue Jays moved Brett Lawrie to second base during interleague play in order to keep Francisco's bat in the lineup. He even got the start against Cole Hamels last night despite a career 7 wRC+ vs lefties. The reason for these things-only one of which was remotely sane- is the line he has produced so far:

BB%

K%

ISO

BABIP

AVG

OBP

SLG

wRC+

12.5%

31.3%

.222

.375

.278

.375

.500

142

The only thing that prevents those numbers from being astounding is the sample size. Francisco has only stepped up to the plate 64 times, so it is much too early to be making bold proclamations. His BABIP is clearly inflated, although not as much as one might expect from a lead-footed masher given that he has a career .336 BABIP in 830 career plate appearances.

While it would be foolish to proclaim Francisco's breakout as something more than a hot streak just yet, that doesn't mean his performance so far isn't worth monitoring. It is always promising when players demonstrate skills they have not demonstrated before, and Francisco is doing that by showing a willingness to take pitches, and as a result, walks.

Juan Francisco's 7.4% career walk rate is not abysmal, but it also is far from special for a guy with his kind of power. He has never shown a great eye at the dish and the 12.5% walk rate in 2014 could be indicative of a change in approach.

In order to try to get a bigger, albeit still fairly small, sample for this season that could indicate a change in Francisco's approach I looked at his spring training and Triple-A stats to see if he has been more selective all year:

Level

Plate Appearances

Walks

BB%

Spring Training

34

8

23.5%

AAA

50

6

12.0%

MLB

64

8

12.5%

2014 Total

148

22

14.9%

The sample remains insufficient to suggest anything meaningful with a great deal of confidence, but it is at least intriguing that the big left-handed hitter has walked at a high rate from the beginning of spring training on.

Francisco's plate discipline stats also reinforce the idea that he has been far more selective in 2014:

Year

O-Zone Swing Percentage

Total Swing Percentage

2009

39.7%

55.8%

2010

35.8%

46.6%

2011

45.0%

55.6%

2012

42.3%

54.7%

2013

36.6%

49.1%

2014

26.2%

44.1%

The number of plate appearances Francisco had is different year-to-year so these numbers vary in their reliability, but he has never shown the kind of discipline he is showing this season in any other sample, big or small.

The following Brooks Baseball zone profile show's Francisco's swing rate by location in 2014 and his relatively solid strike zone judgment is apparent...

...especially when compared to the kind of strike zone judgment he's displayed in his career as a whole:

Has Francisco discovered the secret of solid plate discipline at the age of 26?

It's possible, but it's too early to say it's probable. Far, far, too early.

However, Alex Anthopoulos indicated in a conference call with reporters Tuesday that he'd like to keep Francisco, even in a bench role, so perhaps the answer will become clear as the season wears on.

Juan Francisco has done very well filling in for Adam Lind so far in 2014. He hasn't done well enough to unseat Lind, or prove himself as more than a inconsistent slugger, but he has done enough to be an interesting player to watch going forward.

That's a victory for the Jays front office considering the words "Juan Francisco" and "interesting" haven't been used in the same sentence in some time.

Don't Freak Out About Early Cole Hamels Suckiness

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Cole Hamels has never done well at the start of the season. This ain't a new song, guys.

Cole Hamels didn't look too dang good in the Phils' 6-5, 10-inning loss to the Blue Jays on Tuesday.

In his third start of the season, Hamels was not sharp. He gave up five earned runs on 10 hits and one walk with six strikeouts against a pretty good Blue Jays lineup. For the season, he is 0-2 with a 7.02 ERA, 4.43 FIP, and a WHIP of 1.86.

His location was off all night. You're not supposed to throw guys like Edwin Encarnacion a fastball right down the middle because, when you do, they hit them to New Jersey. When you're facing Colby Rasmus, and Carlos Ruiz sets up low-and-away, off the plate, you're not supposed to throw it down and in because, as a left-handed hitter, Rasmus will take that pitch and kill a small family of five sitting in the center field seats with it.

Hamels left too many pitches out and over the plate last night, and Toronto made him pay. It was certainly a disappointing performance, but it should not be one that causes anyone to seriously worry yet.

Cole has always been a slow starter. His career ERA in April is 4.05. The next-worst month is June, at 3.62. Last year, it took him even longer than normal to get started, posting an ERA of 4.86 in 12 starts in April and May. However, he turned it around in a big way starting in June, posting a 2.96 ERA in his last 21 starts last year.

Sure, some of Hamels' peripherals have not been pretty in his three starts this year. He is striking out a career-low percentage of hitters so far (18.3%) and is walking a higher-than-normal number for him (9.1%). Opponents are batting .348 against him, he has a ground ball rate of 38.9% and a line drive rate of 24.1%, both of which are off career norms.

However, breathe easy. It's more likely than not these numbers, just as they have in every other year he's been a Major Leaguer, will rebound.

There's no doubt the Phillies desperately need Hamels to pitch better than he has in his first three starts of the season. Any chance they have of competing for a playoff spot depends on it.

But take heart. The chances are more than good you'll see Cole bounce back from a slow start and deliver.

Just as he always has.

Poll
How worried are you about Cole Hamels?

  104 votes |Results

Game #34 Preview: Blue Jays vs. Phillies

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Those last two games count as a sweep right? After the Blue Jays won two games in Philadelphia, the teams took the same plane (not really) back to Toronto last night to finish this four-game set. Phillies ace (co-ace?) Cliff Lee toes the mound today against fellow left-hander Mark Buehrle. Lee has been, not shockingly, solid to start the season as he usually is. In 48.0 innings he's allowed 16 earned runs with a silly BB% of 3% and a FIP of 2.42.

It's been a while since Cliff Lee was in the American League so here's a little reminder of what he likes to do. Mainly a fastball, cutter, changeup pitcher, he will occasionally toss in a curveball as well. It seems the 35-year-old is greatly under appreciated by baseball fans who don't watch him a lot, as he's been dominant for nearly seven years now and has hardly lost a tick of velocity (although it's been a little up and down this season):

Brooksbaseball-chart__10__medium

What does a command pitcher with a good changeup equal? Danger against right-handers:

424324_r_ch__2013_40_14_0_20130927_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

Hopeful Lineup

Cliff Lee has a .254 BA against him from batters on both sides of the plate! He's pretty split neutral....

This lineup is actually pretty great.

  1. Jose Reyes SS
  2. Melky Cabrera LF
  3. Jose Bautista RF
  4. Edwin Encarnacion 1B
  5. Dioner Navarro C
  6. Juan Francisco DH
  7. Brett Lawrie 3B
  8. Colby Rasmus CF
  9. Steve Tolleson 2B

Find The Link

Find the link between Cliff Lee and the man who has won four of the last six NL 2B Gold Gloves.

Game In A Sentence

Since people on the Internet are impatient, I think I'm going to start adding a simple sentence to summarize the preview each day.

Cliff Lee is still a good pitcher and isn't going to walk anyone, expect a pitcher's duel.

Jeff Hoffman injury: Top draft prospect to undergo Tommy John

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A potential candidate for the top selection in next month's draft has succumbed to Tommy John surgery.

Another promising young arm went down Wednesday, as it was announced that East Carolina University right-hander Jeff Hoffman will undergo Tommy John surgery, per Frankie Piliere of Perfect Game. Before the injury, Hoffman was considered to be one of the best pitchers available in the upcoming MLB draft, with some touting him as a candidate to go first overall.

As Piliere writes, the 21-year-old Hoffman has been dealing with elbow problems for a few weeks now, and was shut down by East Carolina a couple weeks ago. A recent visit to Dr. James Andrew diagnosed Hoffman with a tear in his right elbow, leading to a recommendation for Tommy John. The surgery will be performed (by Dr. Andrews) sometime next week.

Hoffman displays outstanding physical tools, and has shot up draft boards since his breakout performance last summer in the Cape Cod League. Undrafted out of high school in 2011, Hoffman can now hit 98 MPH on his fastball (he sits in the mid-90's), and demonstrates a plus-plus curve that reminds some of the 12-6 hammer that Adam Wainwright employs. He also throws a changeup which flashes plus, though it is rather inconsistent. Arguably his biggest flaw is a lack of command, though he has shown strong control tendencies. Hoffman has a 2.94 ERA in 67.1 innings this season.

Hoffman started off the year as one of the top two prospects on a majority of draft boards (along with North Carolina State southpaw Carlos Rodon), but inconsistent performances this season had damaged his stock to the point that many were seeing him as a potential 3-10 candidate before the injury, rather than a one-one guy.

While Hoffman will certainly go lower now than if he were healthy, he may still be a top 10 selection, as Piliere points out that teams are still considering him in the 5-10 range. The Twins, who have the fifth pick, won't consider Hoffman at that spot (via Darren Wolfson), so that does eliminate one team. The Cubs, at pick four, were among the teams that were heavily linked to Hoffman prior to today's news.

Hoffman is not the first potential top-five pitching selection to go down with a major injury just months before the draft. High-school right-hander Lucas Giolito was considered a possible first overall pick before spraining his UCL in March of 2012. Sidelined for the remainder of the season, Giolito was still selected 16th overall by the Washington Nationals. He underwent Tommy John surgery immediately after signing. Just last year, Sean Manaea (who burst out in the Cape Cod League much like Hoffman) fell to the 34th overall pick, despite being touted as a possible top selection entering the season, because of a hip injury and shoulder concerns. Fortunately for him, he still got a $3.55 million payday from the Royals.

The MLB draft begins on June 5th, and runs through June 7th. It can be watched on both MLB Network and MLB.com. The selection order can be found here.

My Bad: Blue Jays 10, Phillies 0

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The Phillies and Blue Jays were cruising through 6.5 innings . . . and then I turned on the TV.

I'm more than happy to take the blame for things I'm responsible for.  Giving my students too much work.  Forgetting to charge the kids' DVD players before that one long car ride last year.  That Newt-Gingrich-is-going-to-defund-NPR email your grandmother is still forwarding you.

OK, maybe I had nothing to do with that last one, but I certainly am to blame for tonight's debacle.  See, I was solo parenting for the evening as my wife was out with a friend.  So I didn't get to turn on the Phillies game until after shower, books, and bedtime for the little ones.

By the time I turned on the TV, it was about 8:40.  By all accounts from the announcers, the game had been quite zippy, with 6-plus innings taking about 17 minutes.  That might not be entirely accurate, but it's close.

Cliff Lee had given up 2 hits and 1 walk.  Mark Buehrle (whose family name must have been given by the same clerk at Ellis Island who gave Bret Favre's family their name -- not that the families of either of these strapping white all-American (but not really) men went through Ellis Island, but if they had gone through Ellis Island, their names were cruel jokes by someone who didn't want kids or bloggers to be able to spell or pronounce last names, but I digress) had given up 3 hits and 2 walks.

All in record time.  Less time than it took you to read this paragraph.  Seriously.

The difference was that Cliff Lee had given up a run, whereas Mark Buehrle, like every pitcher who had come before him since 1924, had blanked the Phillies.

But then I turned on the TV.  And everything changed.  Instantly.  Suddenly, the game slowed down to last-two-minutes-of-an-NBA-playoff-game speed.  Suddenly, everyone was hitting long bombs against Cliff Lee.  Suddenly, every Blue Jay was crossing home plate.  And next thing you know, the score was 10-0.

It was a slaughter, and it wasn't pretty.  The inning started with Edwin Encarnacion hitting a deep fly to center field that maybe could have been caught by Ben Revere . . . if he hadn't first decided it was a home run and given up on the ball.  He eventually realized it wasn't a home run, so he started running full speed, but at that point, the ball was past him.  More evidence that Ben Revere's speed is the only reason he's a passable outfielder, because he really doesn't judge fly balls well at all.

Then the rest of the batters Lee faced played a game of hitting long fly balls to all parts of the park.  Erik Kratz hit a deep home run to left field.  Dioner Navarro hit a deep fly ball also to left that was a single.  Juan Francisco hit a long home run to right.  Steve Tolleson hit a deep fly ball to center that was a double.  It seemed that anyone who went to the plate would hit a long fly ball against Lee.  Heck, I could have hit a ball to the warning track in the seventh inning of tonight's game against Lee.  Maybe my 8 year old son could have too.

At this point Mario Hollands enters the game, with the Phillies down by 5.  Hollands, not realizing his job is to stop the bleeding, walked Jose Reyes, then struck out Melky Cabrera on a wild pitch.  Cabrera reached first, and Hollands' night was done.

In came my new buddy Shawn Camp, who did his best Cliff Lee impersonation.  That would usually be a great thing for a reliever to do, but instead, tonight that meant giving up hits and long fly balls.  Jose Bautista singled to left, then Edwin Encarnacion got his 4th, 5th, 6th, and 7th bases . . . of that inning.  He hit a no-doubt-about-it home run to center, making the score 10-0.  No word on whether Revere ran after this one.

Camp was able to get the last five outs of the game after that, but those were as meaningless outs as they come in baseball.  The formidable lineup of Nix, Revere, Rollins, Galvis, Ruiz, and Gwynn shocked everyone by meekly making outs in the eighth and ninth, and that was that.

Another disaster of a game, another non-existent offense, and another loss.

And you can blame me all you want.

See if you can figure out where the bottom of the 7th is on this graph:


Source: FanGraphs

Hector's Wild Wednesday Loses Series

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A record below .500 is here once again.

Final score in Anaheim, Game 3:Yankees 9, Angels 2

WP: Vidal Nuno / LP: Hector Santiago

Hector Santiago just did not bring it tonight (or so far this season). On Wednesday night, he came in 0-5, seeking his first win in an Angel uniform. And he left before the third inning could even end. By the end of the first inning, though, the Yankees were already leading 5-0.

Following Santiago was a slew of arms from the bullpen. Mike Morin, Kevin Jepsen, Michael Kohn, and Corey Rasmus each pitched an inning or more. Nick Maronde also came in for a brief appearance. The reason Maronde's appearance got cut short was due to three runs tapping home plate.

Both Mike Trout and Albert Pujols went without getting a hit, putting The Machine below .300 once again. A bright spot in the offense came from the massive C.J. Cron, who earned himself three hits on the night.

Fittingly for the Yanks, Derek Jeter had a solo home run in his farewell appearance at The Big A. The reception (from the YES Network broadcast) was impressive.

The show rolls on when the Halos hit Toronto for the weekend. Stay tuned for a Blue Jays preview on Friday.

Jays Shut Out Phillies, Score 9 Superfluous Runs In The 7th

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Jays win 10-0, climb back to .500

So that was some 7th inning. Nine runs, eight hits, three homers, a walk, a batter reaching base on a bounced strike 3, and the slowest double play ever turned. Fortunately/unfortunately, none of those runs matter, because Mark Buehrle was excellent, going seven shutout innings on 101 pitches (65 strikes) allowing only three hits, two walks, and ringing up six. Sergio Santos and Chad Jenkins followed with clean innings in the 8th and 9th, lowering their ERAs to 9.58 and 9.00 respectively. Cliff Lee had been similarly dominant prior to the 7th, throwing six strong innings of two hit ball with only one run given up and one walk, before allowing five earned and five hits in the 7th. Sadly for Lee, Mike Wilner isn't writing this recap so we can't just ignore his bad inning, leaving him with a line of 6.1IP, 7H, 6ER, 1BB, 6K.

To the recap!

After a 1st inning that was done before anthems were even finished, Buehrle opened the 2nd with a lolK by striking out Carlos Ruiz looking on three straight low-eighties "fast"balls. The next batter, Marlon Byrd, he of the misspelled first name that gets eaten by his misspelled last name, hooked* the first pitch he saw to left field for a double. Melky Cabrera probably should have been able to field the ball and get it in quickly enough to get Byrd at 2nd, or to at least keep him to a single, but a mediocre route and/or mediocre foot speed led to his being stuck in no-man's land on the bounce and having to retreat and jump just to prevent the ball from getting to the wall. Domonic Brown grounded out on a ball hit deep into the hole at second that Steve Tolleson managed to get to, and well-a Byrd Byrd Byrd advanced to third. John Mayberry Jr. followed with a ball hit deep down the RF line, but Jose Bautista managed to track it down in time and make a nice running catch to get Buehrle out of the inning.

*this seems like it should be a pun, but he really did hook the ball

A quiet Blue Jays half inning later, Cody "Kobayashi" Asche, who had another strong game despite the ofer, making a number of solid plays at 3rd base, opened the 3rd inning by drawing a five pitch walk. Buehrle managed to strike out Jayson Nyx swynging on eyght pytches, with three called strikes all coming on soft stuff on the inner half of the plate. Ben Revere then sent a single bouncing up the middle to put men on 1st and 2nd with one out, but was stranded after Jimmy Rollins (playing DH) popped out foul to EE, and Chase Utley chased a curveball outside the zone for strike three.

In the home half, with one out Colby Rasmus magic'd a single off lefty Lee past Mayberry Jr. at 1B. Tolleson, who had a great game going 3-4 with two doubles and a totally undeserved triple, followed with the first of his doubles, which unfortunately bounced perfectly over the wall in LCF for a ground rule double, temporarily costing the Jays a run. Thankfully, Jose Reyes followed the double with a deep fly ball to right field, allowing Colby to tag up and score the first run of the ballgame. Tolleson probably should have tagged up on the play as well, since the ball was tailing away from Byrd and toward the deep part of the park, but it mattered not, as Melky ended the inning with a K.

The 4th, 5th, and 6th zipped along, with both pitchers making their opponents look foolish at the plate, and allowing no hits and one walk a piece in the process. In the 7th inning, Buehrle allowed a single to Byrd before notching three straight ground ball outs to wrap up his outing.

Cliff Lee's final inning was, uh, not quite as successful.

Edwin Encarnacion led off the inning with a triple off the wall in CF thanks to a lost Revere, whose compatriots evidently could not find a sufficient number of lanterns to warn of an aerial attack. Erik Kratz, Norse god of turkey bacon, followed with a home run deep to left on a fastball over the middle of the plate to give the Jays a three-love lead. Gimpy Legs Navarro added to the hurt with the deepest single one can hit, sending the ball into the left field corner. More importantly, this led to the third consecutive Buckgasm, on, yes, just one home run. Juan Francisco - the best Francisco - followed with a "just enough" line drive homer to RF to make it a 5-0 game. The hit was good for a number of firsts: In addition to it being Francisco's first career dinger off a lefty pitcher, it was also the first high and deep high or deep ball in the air on which we were not subjected to a Buckgasm, so naturally it left the park.

Phillies pitching coach Bob McClure then visited the mound to tell Lee to, you know, pitch better, and Lee obliged by getting Rasmus to ground out to 2B. The magic power of the mound visit was short-lived, however, and Steve Tolleson knocked his second double of the game to left-ish-center field to chase Lee from the game. Fun fact of the night courtesy of radivel: Steve Tolleson is 5-8 vs. Lee and all 5 are extra base hits. With Reyes at the dish, new pitcher Mario Hollands uncorked a wild pitch, allowing Tolleson to advance to 3rd base, en route to Reyes drawing his second walk of the game. With Melky up, Reyes, whose legs seem to be morphing back into wheels, stole 2nd base. With 1st base now open, Melky maybe-but-probably-not-intentionally swung at a wild pitch for strike 3 and reached first easily. Reyes and Tolleson both advanced on the play as well, bringing the score to 6-0 and sending the Phils to their bullpen for the second time in the inning, this time for former-Jay Shawn Camp.

Jose Bautista welcomed Camp to the game by taking a sinker to LF for a single, keeping his on-base streak alive and scoring Reyes to extend the lead to a number rarely seen by the 2013 Jacksonville Jaguars. Then Edwin bumped his wRC+ up over 100 with a no-doubter to deep LCF for the Jays' 7th, 8th, and 9th runs of the inning. Kratz tacked on an extra single for good measure before Dioner Navarro produced the inning-ending GIDP masterpiece you will see below when my internet starts working again and I can go cut a clip (or a friendly commenter (stolarz88!) gets around to posting one first).

With the inning finally over and the fans reminded that the Phillies are actually allowed to bat as well, John Gibbons, channeling Bedazzled Elizabeth Hurley, acceded to our collective wish to see Sergio Santos used not just in save situations, and brought him out to pitch the 8th. Up by 10. To Santos's credit, he was focused despite the leverage index being but a rounding error from 0, and put away the Phillies hitters in order.

In what should have been an uneventful, six up six down 8th, after Francisco popped out to 2B and a Rasmus Krasmus, this happened with Tolleson at the plate, courtesy of stolarz88 and Tony Gwynn Jr.:

Tolleson didn't end up scoring, but really, just look at that route.

As mentioned, a perfect Chad Jenkins 9th later and the Jays were back to .500, still tied with the Sox and 1.5 GB of both the Yankees and the O's, and still(!) the only AL East team with a positive run differential.

Every Jays starter reached base safely, and all had at least one hit except for Reyes (2 BB) and Melky (dropped 3rd strike), while Tolleson, Encarnacion, and Kratz notched three, two, and two respectively. Mark Buehrle is the only Jay of the Day, at +.472, and Melky was the closest to a Suckage at -.075. The Jays had their second consecutive positive StrikeTracker day, with 1.22 strikes gained pitching and 2.54 gained batting, for a net of +3.76 and bringing the season total to -77.15.

Toronto goes for the second mini-sweep at 7:07p tomorrowday, as former Jay and current J A.J. Burnett takes on R.A. Dickey. The loser has to take a letter from the winner's name and become RAJ, the Ned Yost of GMs.


Game #35 Preview: Blue Jays vs. Phillies

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This team was supposedly toast last week and now they're going to the playoffs. I can't keep up! The Blue Jays look to really stick it to the Phillies tonight and win the best-of-seven series in only four games tonight at the Rogers Centre. Pitchers with their initials as names is the theme tonight as R.A. Dickey faces off against A.J. Burnett. That Burnett guy used to play for the Blue Jays if you weren't aware. His departure wasn't the smoothest thing in the world. He's been lights out this year in his first year with Philadelphia pitching to a 2.06 ERA although there's a .258 BABIP and a 7.4% HR/FB that makes things look a little better than they are.

If you've forgotten what Mr. Burnett throws since his time in Toronto, he features a fastball, sinker, knuckle curve and changeup. Brooks Baseball is not working at all right now, so we'll have to take our business elsewhere. Something that seems like it could be an issue for Burnett if batters can identify it is that Burnett's release point for his off-speed stuff is slightly different than for his fastballs:

1503592014040120140507aaaaarelease_medium

via pitchfx.texasleaguers.com

The knuckle curve is really the pitch that causes problems for hitters and is what Burnett will throw when he needs a whiff or some weak contact. A timely article about knuckle curves is up at FoxSports.com and is quite an interesting read. Burnett's knuckle curve is rarely is thrown for a called strike, but is often swung through due to it's late break and accurate command:

Burnettcurve.gif.opt_medium_medium

via assets.sbnation.com

It's a tough pitch as it breaks hard down and away against right-handers sometimes even being thrown in the dirt:

150359_r_kc__2013_40_14_0_20130927_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

Hopeful Lineup

  1. Jose Reyes SS
  2. Melky Cabrera LF
  3. Jose Bautista RF
  4. Edwin Encarnacion 1B
  5. Juan Francisco 3B
  6. Dioner Navarro DH
  7. Colby Rasmus CF
  8. Josh Thole C
  9. Steve Tolleson 2B

Find The Link

Find the link between A.J. Burnett and the father of the Mets left fielder.

Game In A Sentence

Blue Jays can't swing at Burnett's knuckle curve if they want to win, R.A. Dickey needs to show that a real knuckler don't need no curves.


Blue Jays activate Adam Lind

A four game sweep. Or is that two two game sweeps?

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Phillies 6 Blue Jays 12

Now that was a fun series of baseball. Over the 3 games we outscored the Phillies 31 to 11. Nice to be above .500 again. 

Tonight was a home run derby night, we had 5 home runs. 2 for Edwin Encarnacion (I love watching Edwin when he is locked in like this), 1 each for Colby Rasmus, Adam Lind and Juan Francisco

We had 13 hits in all. 3 each for Francisco and Encarnacion. 2  for Melky Cabrera. Everyone else in the starting lineup had 1 except Chris Getz, who had an 0 for 4, but then he wasn't needed. Jose Bautista got a hit in his last at bat to keep his on base streak going. 

R.A. Dickey was good enough. Not great. He pitched himself into and out of trouble most innings. He went 6.1 innings, allowing 7 hits, 3 walks, 3 earned with 8 strikeouts. 

Aaron Loup, Marcus Stroman and Esmil Rogers pitched the last 2.2. Stroman was impressive, pitching 1.1 perfect, with a strikeout. I'm enjoying watching him. I'd still rather him as a starter, but he has been a welcome addition to the bullpen. Rogers had some troubles in the 9th, giving up 3 runs off 2 hits, including a home run and a walk, but the game was well in hand by then. 

Jays of the Day are Dickey (.120 WPA), Edwin (.133), Francisco (.123) and Reyes (.103). Reyes lost a chance at a triple when a fan grabbed his hit down the right field line. He also had 2 stolen bases. 

No Suckage Jays, Getz had the low mark at -.045.

That gets us back above .500, yay. At the moment we are a game back of Baltimore and New York, though the Orioles are winning as I type this. The nice thing about the 5 game win streak is it has quieted the jerks on my twitter feed who want to tell me how the Jays are going to lose 100 games every time they lose one. 

The GameThread had 1430 comments. Kraemer_17 led the way again. Great job. 

#Commenter# Comments
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Series Preview: @ Toronto Blue Jays

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The return to .500 may be short-lived. Two of the more promising arms in the rotation start and end the series in Toronto for this weekend.

ANGELS (16-17), BLUE JAYS (18-17)

May 9 4:07pm (57, chance of rain) -- FOX Sports West, Sportsnet One

W-LERAWHIPKBB
Garrett Richards3-02.841.1324018

W-LERAWHIPKBB
Dustin McGowan2-14.801.4332013

May 10 10:07am (57, cloudy) -- FOX Sports West, Sportsnet, MLB Network/pending market

W-LERAWHIPKBB
Tyler Skaggs2-14.541.2482412

W-LERAWHIPKBB
J.A. Happ1-01.931.60769

May 11 10:07am (64, partly cloudy) -- FOX Sports West, Sportsnet

W-LERAWHIPKBB
Jered Weaver3-23.481.1593513

W-LERAWHIPKBB
Drew Hutchison1-24.171.2684411

May 12 4:07pm (58, chance of storm) -- FOX Sports West, Sportsnet

W-LERAWHIPKBB
C.J. Wilson4-23.211.1334616

W-LERAWHIPKBB
Mark Buehrle6-11.911.1702912

Injury Report

NameStatusEst. Return
LAARyan Brasier (right elbow)
Sean Burnett (left elbow)
Kole Calhoun (right ankle)
Dane De La Rosa (right s/c joint)
David Freese (right middle finger)
Josh Hamilton (left thumb)
Brian Moran (left elbow)
*Don Baylor (right leg)
60-day DL
15-day DL
15-day DL
15-day DL
15-day DL
15-day DL
Season over
Snoozing
TBD
TBD
Mid May
Mid May
Mid May
Late May
2015
Guesses?
TORMaicer Izturis (left knee)
Casey Janssen (oblique)
Brett Lawrie (right hamstring)
Brandon Morrow (right index finger)
60-day DL
15-day DL
Day-to-day
60-day DL
TBD
May 12
May 10
Mid July

Everyone have a great weekend!

Poll
The end of this four game series will leave us...

  16 votes |Results

MLB news: Nolan Arenado sets franchise record with 28-game hitting streak

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The Rockies' young third baseman joined exclusive company upon breaking the Rockies' record for consecutive games with a hit.

Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado singled in the third inning of Colorado's game against the Rangers on Thursday to extend his hitting streak to a franchise-record 28 games.

Arenado surpassed teammate Michael Cuddyer, who hit in 27 straight last season, on the Rockies' all-time list with a line-drive knock to center field against Rangers starter Matt Harrison. Arenado became the fifth third baseman since 1969 to hit in 28 or more consecutive games, joining Ryan Zimmerman, Wade Boggs, George Brett and Pete Rose, according to the Rockies' public relations department.

The 23-year-old second-year defensive wizard has added an impact bat to his game this season. Arenado entered Thursday hitting .324/.346/.545 in 153 plate appearances in 2014. The traditional home/road split that is associated with Rockies players also hasn't applied to him; Arenado is hitting .357/.370/.457 away from Coors Field.

Arenado finished 1-for-4 in the Rockies' 5-0 loss to Texas.

Bundy on his way back

Orioles right-handed pitching prospect Dylan Bundy is making his way back from Tommy John surgery and is about to take a significant step in his recovery:

Encarnacion homers twice, including No. 200

Struggling Blue Jays slugger Edwin Encarnacion righted the ship on Thursday, slugging a pair of home runs -- including the 200th of his 10-year big league career -- in a 12-6 victory over the Phillies.

Encarnacion entered the game with only four home runs and a .242/.333/.439 batting line after two consecutive 35-plus homer seasons. His first home run of the game, which was the milestone one, got him back on track.

Thursday scores

Indians 9, Twins 4
Astros 6, Tigers 2
Blue Jays 12, Phillies 6
Orioles 3, Rays 1
Rangers 5, Rockies 0
Cubs 12, White Sox 5
Marlins 3, Padres 1
Mariners 1, Royals 0
Giants 3, Dodgers 1 (10)

Comparing the A.L. East offenses

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Through the first month-plus of the season, how do the Orioles measure up to their division rivals?

We're just over a month into the season, and the five teams of the American League East are tightly packed in the standings. There are less games between first and last place in the A.L. East than between first and second place in the A.L. Central. Going into this year it was thought by many that the one of the strengths of the Orioles would be its offense, with the pitching staff being much more suspect. So after 30+ games for all of the teams, how does the Orioles offense stack up to the rest of the division? (Note: All numbers are through May 7th and do not include the games played last night)

First things first, let's look at results. Namely, runs scored. Runs scored don't necessarily speak to the talent level of a team, but ultimately they're the most important thing. Since not all teams have played the same number of games, I'll also show runs/game.

Runs/GameTotal Runs
Blue Jays4.88166
Orioles4.32134
Yankees4.27141
Rays4.24144
Red Sox4.15141

The Orioles have played a few less games than the other teams in the East, so their total number looks a little paltry, but with runs/game they are second to only the Jays. Really the Jays are the only team that stands out from the pack, scoring 1/2 run per game more than the Orioles. Not surprisingly, the Blue Jays also top the division in offensive WAR, at 6.2. The Rays (5.4) are behind them, followed by the Yankees (4.9) and Red Sox (3.5). The Orioles and their free-swinging ways come in last at a paltry 2.8.

Speaking of free swinging, how about plate discipline? As you all know, the Orioles aren't really known for getting on base. They rank last in the AL East with their team mark of .314. Tops is the Red Sox at .340, followed by Tampa Bay (.332), Toronto (.329), and New York (.325). The O's are also the only team in the A.L. East whose mark comes in below the average for the entire American League, .323. Here are some additional plate-discipline numbers that will make you sad for the Orioles.

Pitches/PAO-Swing%Z-Swing%O-Contact%Z-Contact%
Orioles3.6733.50%67.20%65.40%87.10%
Yankees3.9427.70%66.30%69.90%89.40%
Red Sox4.0725.90%61.80%66.60%85.40%
Blue Jays3.8627.50%62.10%63.70%87.80%
Rays3.8824.20%62.90%64.70%89.10%

(This table is sortable, so click a column header if you like)

Pitches per plate appearances is self explanatory, but let me explain the other stats, taken from FanGraphs, in case you're not familiar. O-Swing% is the percentage of pitches swing out outside the strike zone, Z-Swing% is the percentage of pitches swung at inside the zone. O and Z contact % are the % of contact made outside and inside the zone, respectively.

So for pitches outside the strike zone, the Orioles swing 33.5% of the time, almost 8% more than the next closest team. It's only about 30 games of data, but that is not impressive. We've all seen it, and it isn't very fun to watch. And while they swing at the most pitches outside the zone, they certainly aren't making contact on the most. In case you're curious, the Oriole who swings the most outside the zone is young Jonathan Schoop, at 40.5%. And he only makes contact 50% of the time, which is pretty bad.

The Red Sox are the best team in the East when it comes to plate discipline, but power is where the Orioles excel, right? Maybe not, with Chris Davis on the DL and J.J. Hardy and Adam Jones having power outages. To the numbers!

HR2BSLG%ISO
Orioles2655.397.134
Yankees3066.406.142
Red Sox2770.383.136
Blue Jays4461.432.175
Rays3067.391.139


Again, keep in mind that the Orioles have played 2-3 less games than the other teams, though their overall numbers aren't really that impressive anyway. Their .397 SLG is third best in the East but is still under .400 so that disappoints me. And really, the four non-Canadian teams are pretty closely lumped together in both SLG% and ISO. If you're not familiar with ISO, it's a stat that measures how good a player (or in this case, team) is at hitting for extra bases. The MLB average so far this season for ISO is .140, meaning that the non-Blue Jays teams are hovering around average.

As we all know, it's still early, but it stands to reason that the Orioles will improve in this area. With Davis hopefully close to returning, Jones looking over the last few games like he has a clue at the plate, and the fact that Hardy has to start hitting a few home runs eventually (doesn't he?). Currently the only guys doing much power-wise are Matt Wieters and Nelson Cruz.

There is one more stat I care to look at, and that's wOBA. wOBA is a catch-all stat whose job it is to measure overall offensive value by a player.

wOBA
Blue Jays0.337
Rays0.322
Orioles0.314
Yankees0.309
Red Sox0.302

The MLB average for wOBA so far this year is .314, so hooray, the Orioles are average!  These numbers will of course change as the season goes on and I presume so will the rankings. For now it seems that, while the Orioles have been a little disappointing offensively, they are certainly holding their own in the division.

Ultimately, the only thing that matters is the number of wins the team gets, and it's easier to win when you score more runs. In that sense, the Orioles have been successful relative to the rest of the A.L. East so far this year. Despite several easy to recall failures over this past series, their OPS with runners in scoring position is better than both the Yankees and Red Sox, and when you look at clutch stats, the Orioles as a team hit better when the game is tied or when it is "late and close" (7th inning or later with the batting team tied, ahead by one, or the tying run on deck) than every A.L. East team other than the Blue Jays. When there is only one run difference in the score, they still come in better than the Red Sox or Rays.

If the Orioles want to spend the entire year scoring more runs per game than the Red Sox, Rays, and Yankees, then I don't care how they do it. All it's gotten them so far is first place. If they want to hit better when the game is close (although let's face it, most of the O's games are close), and that leads to more runs, I'm all for it. But I think it's fair to say that those things will continue to come easier throughout the year if they can, as a team, improve both their on-base and power numbers. Because right now, those numbers aren't looking too hot.

All stats taken from FanGraphs or Baseball Reference.

Game #36 Preview: Blue Jays vs. Angels

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The Blue Jays welcome the Angels to the Rogers Centre tonight to start a four-game weekend series. Garrett RIchards gets the start for Anaheim against Dustin McGowan who is always one bad start away from losing his rotation spot. Watching the Angels is always fun because they happen to have Albert Pujols and Mike Trout who have a combined WAR of 3.6 already this season.

Richards is normally pretty 'meh' even with his high velocity, but he's had a hot start to the season and has an ERA of 2.84 thanks in large part to a 25.8 K%, which is about 10% over his career average. He's also only given up only one home run (3.8% HR/FB), which is bound to straighten out by the time the season is over. Richards hasn't done anything crazy this year to turn around his career, with his mid-90's fastball, sinker, and slider still being his main pitches:

Brooksbaseball-chart__1__medium

According to opposing players though, Richards is a tricky pitcher to face off against:

Every time Trout reaches first -- and that happens a lot -- he asks the opposing first baseman about his own starter, and they're usually most impressed by Richards' stuff.

"I haven't had one person say it was pretty easy to hit," Trout said. "It's nasty."

With this sort of velocity, I can understand why it's a chore to go up against him:

9784_p_ft_20140503_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

Hopeful Lineup

This is the best Blue Jays lineup in a little while, other than the last two spots.

  1. Jose Reyes SS
  2. Melky Cabrera LF
  3. Jose Bautista RF
  4. Adam Lind DH
  5. Edwin Encarnacion 1B
  6. Juan Francisco 3B
  7. Colby Rasmus CF
  8. Erik Kratz C
  9. Steve Tolleson 2B

Find The Link

Find the link between Garrett Richards and the Blue Jays pitcher who was traded for Danny Farquhar.

Game In A Sentence

Garrett Richards has been both better (25.8 K%) and luckier this year (3.8% HR/FB), making this an interesting pitching match-up with Dustin McGowan.


The Mets' plan for Rafael Montero

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The Dominican prospect may see time in the big league bullpen soon

In an article today at the Daily News, Andy Martino said the Mets will promote Rafael Montero to the big league in the near future. The 23-year-old will reportedly serve as a reliever. Martino also spoke with people in the Mets organization, who gave him details on the team's plan for the prospect.

The plan consists of four phases. Initially, Montero will begin pitching out of the bullpen for Triple-A Las Vegas and familiarize himself with relieving duties. Once he feels comfortable, the Mets will call him up to serve the same role in the big leagues. The long-term outlook for Montero, however, still involves him being a starter. Once the Mets' bullpen situation stabilizes, the team will send Montero back to Las Vegas so he can lengthen out. Since his stint as a reliever would limit Montero's innings, the Mets hope to call him up again late in the season, this time as a starter.

It's fairly common now for teams to call up young arms and put them in the bullpen, with the most recent case being the Blue Jays and top prospect Marcus Stroman. Adam Wainwright would be the perfect scenario for this plan to mirror, but cases abound of starters-turned-relievers falling short of expectations, as with Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and, to a certain extent, Neftali Feliz.

Poll
What should the Mets do with Rafael Montero?

  242 votes |Results

Winning streak ends

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Angels 4 Blue Jays 3

I'm at a nice dinner (with lots of wine),  so this is just a space saver for the recap.

Brett Cecil gave up a run on a bases loaded sac-fly in the 9th to take the loss.

I'll add to this after I get over the hangover.  Use the thread to discuss the game.

Angels Friday Night Win Earned Late, 4-3 Final In Toronto

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Hello .500! With Dino Ebel at the helm for the tonight, the Halos secure a win.

Final score in Toronto, Game 1:Angels 4, Blue Jays 3

WP: Joe Smith / LP:Brett Cecil / S:Ernesto Frieri

Mike Scioscia is nowhere to be found spending Friday and Saturday attending his daughter's graduation. So we are left with Dino Ebel managing the team for the front end of this series. And in night one, Dino gets the job done. Unfortunately, he was 0-1 in challenges tonight. But hey, there is always tomorrow! Really, he'll be here tomorrow!

The first run of the game for the Blue Jays arrived in the very first inning when Garrett Richards threw a wild pitch. Richards went on to allow just two runs for the rest of his seven innings pitched. But he was not able to earn a victory as Jose Reyes blasted a home run into the stands off of Joe Smith. If only things could ever be easy for this team.

Offensive contributions came courtesy of Mike Trout, Raul Ibanez, and Howie Kendrick, and Collin Cowgill. Trout was the sole home run for the team tonight and Old Man Ibanez had the sacrifice fly ball to bring in tonight's hitting machine for the win. Erick Aybar came through with two doubles and a triple.

Ernie comes in with a 1-2-3 ninth inning and the team's record breaks even once again. Tomorrow's game is at 10:07am and can be seen on FOX Sports West, Sportsnet One for you Canadian folks, and MLB Network depending upon your market.

Poll
Thank you...

  94 votes |Results

After Last Night, I Miss Enrico Pollatzo May 10, 2014 Weekend Links

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Not the start to the weekend any of us were hoping for.  On the bright side, the BP only imploded for 2 runs in a tie game and Jose Reyes hit a game typing HR.  On the dark side, the Angels won and the frogurt toppings still contain Potassium Benzoate.

For those youngins who are wondering who in the world is Enrico Pollatzo?  Ask some old person about the Naked Gun.  Poll suggestion thanks to ABSteve.

JAYS LINKS

The Blue Jay Hunter: Flashback Friday: WAMCO
Looking back at one of the most potent Blue Jays lineups - WAMCO. White, Alomar, Molitor, Carter & Olerud.

Former Toronto Blue Jays fan favourite John McDonald returns to Rogers Centre as member of Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim | National Post
A 5-foot-9 reserve infielder with a career .236 batting average, McDonald played his way into the hearts of Jays’ fans with his dazzling defence and his affable personality

Blue Jays’ Erik Kratz makes best of unusual opportunity: Griffin | Toronto Star
Back-up catcher remains unfazed despite the good chance he’ll be sent down once Casey Janssen returns from injury

The Blue Jay Hunter: 3 Up 3 Down: The Bullpen, Morrow and Stroman
Another implosion by the Blue Jays bullpen against the Pirates, plus thoughts on Brandon Morrow and Marcus Stroman.

Marcus Stroman Is Not Long For The Bullpen | FanGraphs Fantasy Baseball
Last weekend, the Blue Jays called up consensus top-100 prospect Marcus Stroman, adding him to their bullpen in a middle relief role. It would be silly to expect him to stay in the bullpen for long, as Toronto’s rotation is just too thin and shallow for Stroman to pitch in relief long-term.

The Blue Jay Hunter: The Ever-Changing Batting Stance of Colby Rasmus
Looking at the many different batting stances of Colby Rasmus.

Blue Jays Minor League Report: Dunedin Continues to Roll - Jays Journal - A Toronto Blue Jays Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More
Darin Mastroianni had a three hit night for the Buffalo Bisons. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Campbell-USA TODAY Sports Buffalo Bisons (18-13) The Bisons weren'

MLB LINKS

MLB rejigs investigative team after doping scandal - The Globe and Mail
In the wake of the Alex Rodriguez doping case, which drew accusations of unethical behaviour by Major League Baseball’s top investigators, the league has fired some members of its investigative team and moved to restructure the unit.

Kelly: Angels' Mike Trout the epitome of an ordinary superstar - The Globe and Mail
Young outfielder for the L.A. Angels shines without star power

Wasted Pitches and the Pitchers Who Make the Most of Them | FanGraphs Baseball
You’ll often hear of a pitcher "wasting" a pitch. Up 0-2 in a count, for example, the pitcher fires off something well out of the zone, hoping the defensive hitter will hack at it, missing or putting the ball in play weakly. The cost here is minimal – the cost of that pitcher having thrown an extra pitch and the change in count from 0-2 to 1-2.

In Search of the Perfect Fastball: Velocity, Movement, and Location – The Hardball Times
In his under-appreciated piece, Walsh concluded that low and away fastballs thrown to right-handed hitters are really effective pitches. That point may be obvious, but his second claim was more nuanced: for pitches thrown to this "perfect location," an 81 mph fastball is just as good as a 98 mph heater.

The Freaks and the Runts: Fun with Hitting Mechanics – The Hardball Times
If you have read any of my previous hitting articles, it’s no secret I think swing mechanics are an underappreciated and improperly utilized aspect of the evaluation of professional hitters. For me, looking at a player’s swing can tell you a lot about what kind of hitter he is, and a hitter who perfects his swing can overcome most limitations to his long-term success (within reason, of course).

Official Confirmation of the Role of Pitch-Receiving | FanGraphs Baseball
This is about an acknowledgment of the role of the skill, from one of the people we figure catchers are trying to convince. A lot of the time, when a post goes up here about framing, someone chimes in in the comments all skeptical-like, claiming that umpires aren’t influenced by the catchers catching the pitches.

Astros' Elias details search for elite draft talent - Sportsnet.ca
First overall picks are nothing new for Mike Elias. The Houston Astros amateur scouting director helped select Carlos Correa in 2012 then made the call to draft Mark Appel first overall in 2013.

Minneapolis City Council amends All-Star game 'clean zone' after ACLU lawsuit | Big League Stew - Yahoo Sports
From Yahoo Sports: MLB still has a say, but not final approval.

Carlos Gomez and Brian McCann bury the hatchet by hugging it out | Big League Stew - Yahoo Sports
From Yahoo Sports: Time heals all wounds.

The Worst Starts in Great Seasons | FanGraphs Baseball
Still, just how bad can it get for good pitchers? Every pitcher puts up a bad start now and then, but how bad have the best been in recent years?

Yu Darvish Loses Perfect Game On Error, Sparks Argument On MLB Network
Yu Darvish's perfect game bid tonight against the Red Sox was spoiled by a seventh-inning blunder by his fielders that, in any other ballpark, would have been ruled a hit.

Where in the world do pro athletes come from? | SPORTCHART
Active NHL, NBA, and MLB players by place of birth

TODAY IN MONTREAL EXPO HISTORY

Baseball History May 10th - National Pastime - Baseball History
1981 Expos' hurler Charlie Lea no-hits the Giants, 4-0, becoming the first French-born pitcher to accomplish the feat. The 24-year old right-hander was born in Orleans, France.

Poll
Worst Ump

  44 votes |Results

Game #37 Preview: Blue Jays vs. Angels

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The Blue Jays look to get back to their winning ways this afternoon as they once again go up against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. J.A. Happ toes the rubber for Toronto, facing off with Tyler Skaggs of the Angels. Skaggs is a 22-year-old lefty who was originally drafted by Anaheim then traded to Arizona and then traded back to Anaheim in the Mark Trumbo deal. So far this season he's been just okay, sitting with an ERA of 4.54 and a FIP of 4.22.

The southpaw pitcher mainly throws a fastball, sinker, curveball, and changeup with his hard stuff in the low to mid-90's. Skaggs' curveball is his go-to off-speed pitch, while his changeup is mainly thrown to right-handed hitters to keep them honest in fastball counts. When the curve is located well, it's pretty much completely unhittable and even has its own Twitter page. Quite the hook:

Brooksbaseball-chart__2__medium

He also has three fairly distinct release points for his main pitches, which is never ideal:

Chart__2__medium

via FanGraphs

Hopeful Lineup

It seems that Sunday will be the day that Brett Lawrie returns to the lineup.

  1. Jose Reyes SS
  2. Melky Cabrera LF
  3. Jose Bautista RF
  4. Edwin Encarnacion 1B
  5. DIoner Navarro C
  6. Juan Francisco 3B
  7. Erik Kratz DH
  8. Colby Rasmus CF
  9. Steve Tolleson 2B

Find The Link

Find the link between Tyler Skaggs and the Blue Jays draft pick between Matt Boyd and Kendall Graveman.

Game In A Sentence

Tyler Skaggs has a nasty hook, but still isn't that dominant, this game could get a little wild.
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