Does good pitching really beat good hitting? The Tigers hope so, as the red hot Toronto Blue Jays come to town for a three-game series.

Toronto Blue Jays (34-24) at Detroit Tigers (31-22)

Time/Place: 7:08 p.m., Comerica Park

SB Nation blog:Bluebird Banter

Media: Fox Sports Detroit, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network

Pitching Matchup: RHP Drew Hutchison (4-3, 3.88 ERA) vs. RHP Anibal Sanchez (2-2, 2.49 ERA)

Drew Hutchison grew up in the shadows of the Tigers' Spring Training complex in Lakeland, Fla., and was drafted by the Blue Jays in 2009. He made his big league debut in 2012 at the ripe age of 21 before missing nearly all of the 2013 season due to Tommy John surgery. He made just 10 starts in the minors last year, allowing a 4.84 ERA in 35 1/3 innings. An impressive spring won him a job in the Jays' rotation this season, and he has taken advantage of the opportunity in a big way. He allowed six runs in 3 1/3 innings in his second start, but rewarded the club's patience by allowing a 3.51 ERA in his past nine starts.

While Hutchison's success is a bit surprising -- he has never adorned any top prospect lists -- the numbers suggest that it is entirely sustainable. He has a solid 2.68 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and his 3.91 FIP is nearly identical to his 3.88 ERA. His batted ball rates are within normal ranges, though Blue Jays fans might like to see that fly ball rate dip just a bit given their hitter-friendly home ballpark. His arsenal is fairly simple: fastball and slider to right-handed hitters, with a changeup added in against lefties. He is still working on getting the latter out -- they have a .328 wOBA and 9.2 percent walk rate against him -- but his overall platoon splits are not too severe. He has been dynamite away from the Rogers Centre, holding opponents to a .618 OPS and 2.33 ERA in seven road starts.

Anibal Sanchez was brilliant in his last start, holding the Oakland Athletics scoreless through eight innings. He ended up with a blemish on his record after the pitching change heard 'round the world. Sanchez struck out nine A's in his 8 1/3 innings of work and generated 11 whiffs in 111 pitches, a near 10 percent rate. The more impressive number, however, may have been the three hits he allowed -- one of which came in that decisive ninth inning. He did a remarkable job keeping the A's off balance, and it's easy to see why when you take a close look at his velocity chart.

via www.brooksbaseball.net

The peaks and valleys may not look as impressive as usual, until you look at the axes. Sanchez dipped into the low 70s with a few pitches, and frequently bottomed out in the low 80s in order to keep hitters off his mid-90s fastball. He threw 25 changeups, 14 sliders, and 12 curveballs on the evening, but was still able to locate over two-thirds of his pitches for strikes.

Hitter to fear:Melky Cabrera (.556/.556/.556 in 18 plate appearances)
Hitter to fail:Juan Francisco (.000/.000/.000 in 3 plate appearances)

Sanchez's career stats against the Blue Jays are not pretty. He has allowed a 5.48 ERA and .798 OPS in four starts, all of which have come since the start of the 2012 season. He was rocked by the Jays in his first start as a member of the Tigers, allowing five runs on eight hits in six innings. However, things have gone much better at Comerica Park. In two home starts against Toronto, Sanchez has allowed four runs on 10 hits with 14 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings of work. Individually, the Jays' success has relied on power. Melky Cabrera and Brett Lawrie are the only position players with batting averages above .300 against Sanchez, and Lawrie's success is in a limited sample of six at-bats. Lefty hurler J.A. Happ actually possesses the second-best OPS among all Blue Jays against Sanchez thanks to a double and a pair of walks in seven plate appearances.

Outlook

While the Tigers need to get going offensively, the matchup that everyone will be focusing on (and rightly so) is the Blue Jays' offense against the Tigers' starting pitching. The Jays have the best slugging average in the league at .453 and lead all of baseball with a 118 wRC+. Meanwhile, Sanchez has done well to limit teams to single bases this year. Among AL pitches with at least 40 innings, Sanchez ranks second with a .268 slugging average allowed, and has yet to give up a home run. It seems odd saying that he will need to keep pace with Hutchison, but with the Jays offense firing on all cylinders and Hutchison taking advantage of playing outside a bandbox, this is not the best matchup for the Tigers.

Prediction

Sanchez allows his first home run of the season tonight.

After dominating the Oakland A's in his last start, Anibal Sanchez faces another stiff test in the Toronto Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays (34-24) at Detroit Tigers (31-22)

Time/Place: 7:08 p.m., Comerica Park

SB Nation blog:Bluebird Banter

Media: Fox Sports Detroit, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network

Pitching Matchup: RHP Drew Hutchison (4-3, 3.88 ERA) vs. RHP Anibal Sanchez (2-2, 2.49 ERA)

Drew Hutchison grew up in the shadows of the Tigers' Spring Training complex in Lakeland, Florida, and was drafted by the Blue Jays in 2009. He made his big league debut in 2012 at the ripe age of 21 before missing nearly all of the 2013 season due to Tommy John surgery. He made just 10 starts in the minors last year, allowing a 4.84 ERA in 35 1/3 innings. An impressive spring won him a job in the Jays' rotation this season, and he has taken advantage of the opportunity in a big way. He allowed six runs in 3 1/3 innings in his second start, but rewarded the club's patience by allowing a 3.51 ERA in his past nine starts.

While Hutchison's success is a bit surprising -- he has never adorned any top prospect lists -- the numbers suggest that it is entirely sustainable. He has a solid 2.68 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and his 3.91 FIP is nearly identical to his 3.88 ERA. His batted ball rates are within normal ranges, though Blue Jays fans might like to see that fly ball rate dip just a bit given their hitter-friendly home ballpark. His arsenal is fairly simple: fastball and slider to right-handed hitters, with a changeup added in against lefties. He is still working on getting the latter out -- they have a .328 wOBA and 9.2% walk rate against him -- but his overall platoon splits are not too severe. He has been dynamite away from the Rogers Centre, holding opponents to a .618 OPS and 2.33 ERA in seven road starts.

Anibal Sanchez was brilliant in his last start, holding the Oakland Athletics scoreless through eight innings. He ended up with a blemish on his record after the pitching change heard 'round the world. Sanchez struck out nine A's in his 8 1/3 innings of work and generated 11 whiffs in 111 pitches, a near 10% rate. The more impressive number, however, may have been the three hits he allowed -- one of which came in that decisive ninth inning. He did a remarkable job keeping the A's off balance, and it's easy to see why when you take a close look at his velocity chart.

via www.brooksbaseball.net

The peaks and valleys may not look as impressive as usual, until you look at the axes. Sanchez dipped into the low 70s with a few pitches, and frequently bottomed out in the low 80s in order to keep hitters off his mid-90s fastball. He threw 25 changeups, 14 sliders, and 12 curveballs on the evening, but was still able to locate over two-thirds of his pitches for strikes.

Hitter to fear:Melky Cabrera (.556/.556/.556 in 18 plate appearances)
Hitter to fail:Juan Francisco (.000/.000/.000 in 3 plate appearances)

Sanchez's career stats against the Blue Jays are not pretty. He has allowed a 5.48 ERA and .798 OPS in four starts, all of which have come since the start of the 2012 season. He was rocked by the Jays in his first start as a member of the Tigers, allowing five runs on eight hits in six innings. However, things have gone much better at Comerica Park. In two home starts against Toronto, Sanchez has allowed four runs on 10 hits with 14 strikeouts in 13 2/3 innings of work. Individually, the Jays' success has relied on power. Melky Cabrera and Brett Lawrie are the only position players with batting averages above .300 against Sanchez, and Lawrie's success is in a limited sample of six at-bats. Lefty hurler J.A. Happ actually possesses the second-best OPS among all Blue Jays against Sanchez thanks to a double and a pair of walks in seven plate appearances.

Outlook

While the Tigers need to get going offensively, the matchup that everyone will be focusing on (and rightly so) is the Blue Jays' offense against the Tigers' starting pitching. The Jays have the best slugging average in the league at .453 and lead all of baseball with a 118 wRC+. Meanwhile, Sanchez has done well to limit teams to single bases this year. Among AL pitches with at least 40 innings, Sanchez ranks second with a .268 slugging average allowed, and has yet to give up a home run. It seems odd saying that he will need to keep pace with Hutchison, but with the Jays offense firing on all cylinders and Hutchison taking advantage of playing outside a bandbox, this is not the best matchup for the Tigers.

Prediction

Sanchez allows his first home run of the season tonight.

Our batters had a great month. As a group they hit .277/.344/.487, hitting 48 home runs and scoring 165, averaging 5.5 runs a game. up from 4.5 in April.

Update: I was sure Francisco was in this....

Juan Francisco: .284/.365/.649, 6 doubles, 7 home runs, 20 RBI, 1 caught stealing, 9 walks and 30 strikeouts. Played in 24 games, started 21. He started 1 game at DH, the rest at third. He made 5 errors at third for a Encarnacion like .915 fielding average. I don't know why anyone would throw him a fastball, but I'm glad they do. He had a slight slump in the middle of the month, but has come out of it. Who figured Juan Francisco would be the guy that moved Lawrie off third base. He is crushing RHP .322/.413/.689, not hitting lefties at all. .091/.160/.227. That's in just 22 at bats, but I think it is safe to presume he should be platooned forever. He doesn't have a lot of range, but if it is hit right at him, he has a strong arm and has made some decent plays.

Dioner Navarro: .222/.278/.278, with 1 home run, 1 double, 7 RBI, 6 walks, and 14 strikeouts. He played in 23 of the 30 games, starting 17. He didn't really join in the fun that the rest of the team was having. So far this season he has thrown out 15% of base stealers. He is better than JP, but maybe not as much better as we'd like.

Erik Kratz: .211/.231/.368, with 2 home runs, 3 RBI, 1 walk and 5 strikeouts. He played in 12 of 30 games, starting 10. He's thrown out 20% of base stealers. He does look pretty good behind the plate, but I'd really like him to hit better than that.

Josh Thole: .233/.343/.267, with 1 double, 2 RBI, 1 caught stealing, 5 walks and 7 strikeouts. He played in 12 games, starting 9. He's thrown out 20% of base stealers. His April numbers were great. I don't know what's changed, there were stories about how he had changed his swing and how he was more relaxed at the plate this season. It didn't last long.

Edwin Encarnacion: .281/.369/.763, with 5 doubles, 1 triple, 16 home runs, 33 RBI, 1 stolen base, 16 walks and 16 strikeouts. He played in all 30 games, playing first 23 times and DH 7 times. It is ok with me if he does that for 4 more months and then steps it up for the playoffs.

Steven Tolleson: .300/.375/.580, with 4 doubles, 2 triples, 2 home runs, 5 RBI, 1 steal, 6 walks and 16 strikeouts. He played 24 games, starting 13. He played 19 times at 2B, 3 times in RF, once at SS, pinch hit 7 times and pinch ran once. He's done very nice job for the team. I won't expect him to continue to hit .300, but he's been a great addition to the team.

Jose Reyes: .269/.348/.437, with 10 doubles, 2 triples, 1 home runs, 11 RBI, 23 runs scored, 11 steals, 1 caught, 14 walks and 12 strikeouts. He started 29 games. It is great to have him healthy.

Brett Lawrie: .287/.333/.436, with 8 doubles, 2 home runs, 11 RBI, 6 walks and 20 strikeouts. He started 24 games. He started 14 games at 2B and 10 at 3B. He's looked pretty decent at second base, to me. Better than I figured he'd look. There are still some moments when he's in too much of a rush, not realizing he has more time at 2B, but he's looked pretty good. I don't mind his batting line, I'd take that from him.

Melky Cabrera: .276/.318/.406, 5 doubles, 3 home runs, 19 RBI, 19 runs scored, 1 steal, 1 caught, 11 walks and 14 strikeouts. He started 29 games, 1 at DH. I'd like to see them DH him more often and give his legs a rest. It wasn't the batting line he had in April, but, if that's a down month, I'll take it.

Colby Rasmus: .286/.318/.714, 3 doubles, 5 home runs, 12 RBI, 2 walks and 14 strikeouts. He played in 11 games, in May before hitting the DL. It seems to happen to us a lot, a struggling player finally gets hot and then gets hurt. I hope, when he comes back, he picks up where he left off.

Jose Bautista: .324/.417/.532, 5 doubles, 6 home runs, 22 RBI, 1 steal, 16 walks and 17 strikeouts. He played in all 30 games, starting 1 in CF, two other times he finished the game in CF, and he DHed once. You know, I thought he was having an off month, that he was in a bit of a slump. Shows how good he is that his OPS can be .948 and I think he's slumping. He's picking his moments to go to the opposite field, mostly in RBI spots. Smart guy.

Adam Lind: .367/.406/.617, 7 doubles, 1 triple, 2 home runs, 9 RBI, 4 walks, 10 strikeouts. He played in 18 games, starting 15. 7 of his starts were at first base. I really admire Gibby, he's been very good with the platoons. Adam has had 17 at bats against lefties. He's hit .118/.211//.118 in those at bats. Anyway, Adam is having a great season, but the beard has got to go.

Anthony Gose: .295/.380/.364, 3 doubles, 3 RBI, 4 runs, 1 steal, 1 caught, 5 walks and 10 strikeouts. He played in 18 games, starting 13. He's slowed down a bit over the past few days, hitting .211/.250/.211 over the past week. He looks so good in center Field. I hope they can keep him around when Colby comes back, pinch runner, defensive replacement, and someone decent to give the outfielders a day off now and then.

Kevin Pillar: .281/.281/.375, 3 doubles, 0 RBI, 6 runs, 1 caught stealing, 0 walks and 8 strikeouts. He played in 16 games, starting 9. He has improved, he had a very slow start, but, over the last two weeks he's hitting .350/.350/.450. I'd feel better if he took the odd walk. He's looked good on defense. I think it's been a good player given time. but my Jays aren't the most patient of teams.

Chris Getz: .105/.150/.105, 2 stolen bases, 4 strikeouts. Played in 8 games, starting 4. Got sent down and retired.

Jonathan Diaz: Got called up, played in one game, 4 at bats, 0 hits, 2 strikeouts.

The Toronto Blue Jays had the American League's best record in May. Their first road trip in June brings them to Comerica Park for a three game series. To get some info on the Jays, we spoke with Tom Dakers of Bluebird Banter.

Last season, the Toronto Blue Jays were a popular pick to win the World Series. That... didn't happen. This year, they are off to a great start. Their 34-24 record and 291 runs scored both rank second in the American League. This week, they come into Detroit hoping to beat up on a Tigers pitching staff that has been a bit shaky over the past couple weeks.

In order to get the lowdown on the Blue Jays, we exchanged questions with Tom Dakers of Bluebird Banter, SB Nation's Blue Jays community. You can read my responses to Tom's questions here.

1. The Blue Jays were on fire in May, winning an AL-best 20 games. Many expected this out of the Jays in 2013, when they were a preseason favorite to win the American League. Are we finally seeing that team, or is this just a blip on the radar?

I'm hoping we are finally seeing that team. One good month does not a season make and all, but we are getting the offense we expected last year. It also looks like the pitching staff is settling out and should be good enough, as long as they keep hitting.

There has been some luck. Juan Francisco was picked up for nothing and filled in when Adam Lind was hurt. Francisco was terrific, hitting .277/.364/.598 over 112 at bats. With Lind back, Francisco has been playing an almost passable third base, moving Brett Lawrie over to second. Francisco's defense has been better than I imagined it would be. He has a strong arm, so if a ball is hit directly at him, he can pick it up and send a good throw across the diamond. If the ball is hit more than a couple of feet either side of him, it's the left fielder's problem.

As well as that, we've had fill in pitchers give us a good start or two when needed. Colby Rasmus gets injured and Anthony Gose comes in and plays far better than he did in Triple-A Buffalo.  Last year, when someone was injured, his replacement would forget how to play baseball on the drive between Triple-A Buffalo and Toronto. This year, replacements seem to improve as the cross the border. Maybe the baseball gods are finally on our side.

2. Leading the charge in May was Edwin Encarnacion, who hit 16 home runs and had six games with three RBI or more. He has been great in the past couple years as well, but has anything changed to make him even better in 2014?

I'm not sure how much has changed. Maybe there is a bit more confidence there, but Edwin has always been a streaky hitter. He started the season cold. He only had 2 home runs in April and ended the month with a .250/.333/.413 batting line. He got his timing down and since then he has been hitting the ball hard almost every time up. I'm happy to ride this streak as long as it lasts.  And he's having fun and smiling, playing decent defense at first base. He looks to be a good teammate and a good leader on the team.

And how many guys carry a parrot around on their home run trots?

3. As good as Encarnacion has been, his OPS only ranks third on the team, behind Jose Bautista and Adam Lind. Who has been the team's MVP so far, and why?

I'd say Edwin has been the MVP but Jose Bautista is a close second. At the start of the season, everyone was pitching around Bautista because Encarnacion was so cold. Jose ended April with a .467 on-base percentage, along with 8 home runs. As Edwin heated up, they started pitching to Jose more (his OBP dropped all the way to .417 for May) and he drove in 22 base runners in May. The thing he is doing differently, this year, is to occasionally go the other way against the big shift, especially with runners in score position. Jose already has more hits to the opposite field than he had all of last season. That's helped his batting average, he's hitting .311 so far this year, after hitting .259 in an injury shortened 2013.

He has also made some amazing plays in right field. He made 9-3 putouts on batters in consecutive games against the Royals. I doubt that play has ever been made in back-to-back games before. One was a line drive by Billy Butler that bounced in front of Bautista, and he gunned it to first, getting Butler by a couple of steps. The next game Omar Infante hit a short fly to right, Jose dived for it, but just missed. He kept the ball close, popped up and threw to first to get Infante. Both times just terrific throws.

Adam Lind has been very good, in part because he finally has a manager smart enough to platoon him. Lind has always been able to hit right-handed pitching, but his troubles with lefties has kept his batting average down. John Gibbons, unlike our last couple of managers, noticed this and has him sitting against southpaws. You wouldn't think it would have been so tough to find a manager that could figure out something that simple.

So right now Encarnacion would be my choice as MVP, but ask again in a month and you might get a different answer.

4. The Jays rank second in the AL in runs scored per game and are on pace to hit 229 home runs this season. However, their pitching staff has the fifth-highest ERA in the league [Ed.: as of Sunday morning]. Do they have the pitching to win the AL East? Who needs to step up?

If they are going to contend, J.A. Happ and Marcus Stroman are going to have to do the job in the 4 and 5 spots of the rotation. Happ has never been a favorite of mine. In the past he has wanted to nibble at the corners (or, more precisely, just off the corners), and, before the 4th inning is over, he'll be up to 100 pitches. Recently he seems to have found an extra 3 or 4 mph on his fastball (he's been hitting 95) and, with that, he seems to less afraid of the strike zone. We'll see if it lasts. Stroman is one of our top prospects, and we've been waiting for him to get the call to the rotation. Stroman isn't a big guy, he's generously listed at 5'9", but he can throw mid-90s and has a very nice breaking ball.

The first 3 spots in the rotation are good enough. Mark Buehrle's been amazing, R.A. Dickey isn't the same guy that won the NL Cy Young two years ago, but he gives us 6 good innings a start and Drew Hutchison might be our Ace by the end of the season.

5. The Tigers will not see Mark Buehrle, as he pitched on Sunday. However, he leads the AL with 10 wins and has put up a 2.10 ERA and 3.06 FIP in his first 12 starts. Has he changed anything from 2013 to 2014?

In part the improvement has to be credited to a change in catchers. Last year, it took J.P. Arencibia a long time to figure out how to deal with Buehrle's pace. Buehrle likes to get the ball and throw, he doesn't want to spend time thinking about the right pitch for this moment. He says he would rather throw the wrong pitch than to get out of rhythm. J.P. had a hard time with that. By the end of the season they were meshing better. Dioner Navarro seemed to fit with Buehrle right from the start of spring training. They work together well.

Also, in part, I think Buehrle came into this season a little embarrassed about how poor he started last season. There was a lot of talk about how he always gets off to poor starts and he seemed to take that to heart and came to camp looking to start the season better. And he did.

I think too that he is benefiting from an improved defense. At the start of last season our infield defense was terrible. Emilio Bonafacio was awful at second base. Jose Reyes and Brett Lawrie were both hurt and their replacements weren't exactly Gold Glove candidates.  Buehrle works fast and he uses his defense. He's not going to get a lot of strikeouts, but he doesn't walk many, he needs the plays made behind him. Also this year, he hasn't been giving up home runs, he's only allowed 2 so far. I'd imagine there will be some regression on that front (he gave up 23 last year).

And maybe he doesn't have as much separation anxiety at being so far away from his pit bulls. Ontario has a ban on the animals that Buehrle owns.

6. From an outsider's perspective, Drew Hutchison seems to be one of the more surprising contributors on the Blue Jays' roster. Did Jays fans expect this from him, or has his solid performance caught you off guard too?

Drew came up to the team in 2012, at just 21, made 11 starts, looked pretty good and then got hurt, needed Tommy John surgery and missed almost all of last year.  So, going into spring training, I figured he'd end up at Triple-A, to get a chance to work the kinks out. Wrong again.

Hutchison had a great spring training and the other candidates for the 4th/5th starter spot, what's the technical term, oh right,  sucked. So whatever intentions the Jays might have had for Drew, they needed him to start. He's been good, a been on the inconsistent side, but then, he's coming back from Tommy John and he is only 23. He was to start last Saturday but the Jays are a bit concerned about monitoring his innings, so they pushed him back until Tuesday.

7. Manager ejections seem to be the norm when these two teams get together. Jim Leyland was tossed for miming an umpire in 2011, while a tamer John Gibbons got run for arguing a call last July. Any chance we see more fireworks from Gibbons this weekend?

Never know with Gibby, he's had one ejection this season, but with the good play of late he's been a fair bit more relaxed than in the past. He is hot tempered, but he's also got a short memory. By the time he takes the slow walk out to stall for time on plays that might be challenged, he forgets why he was mad in the first place.

-----

Once again, a big thank you to Tom for taking the time to answer our questions. You can read my responses to his queries here. Be sure to check out Bluebird Banter for all your Toronto Blue Jays needs this season!

Chad Jenkins is the one called up, by the Blue Jays, to take the place of Liam Hendriks.

Chad, as you know, has been up and down a bunch this is his 4th call up this season. We should have a pool on how many batters he faces before going back down to Buffalo. Minor Leaguer made this nice little chart:

I'm feeling sorry for the guy, but then he's giving us a free post every few days.

Chad has pitched in 3 games, 3 innings total, for the Blue Jays this season. He's allowed 5 hits, 3 earned, 2 homers, 0 walks an 2 strikeouts.

At Buffalo he is 1-3 with a 4.01 ERA in 13 games, 4 starts. He's pitched 33.2 innings, allowed 31 hits, 4 home runs, 7 walks with 21 strikeouts.

I'd have preferred they would have found a way to keep Bobby Korecky around but he has to stay in Buffalo for 10 days. Neil Wagner, Sean Nolin,Shawn Hill, John Stilson and Mickey Storey are all on the DL, so the Jays didn't have a lot of choices in Buffallo.

Welcome back Chad, hope you get to stay around a while this time.

The Blue Jays make the short trip to Michigan to start off a three-game set with the Tigers tonight at Comerica Park. Detroit is having another stellar season and currently sit at 31-22, which is good enough for first in the American League Central. The Tigers starting pitching hasn't been quite as dominant as usual, but the offence has picked up the slack and the team looks likely to cruise to a fourth straight division crown. Not much has changed with the team since last year other than the obvious addition of Ian Kinsler, who was traded for Prince Fielder, and our old friend Rajai Davis starting out in left field. Highly-rated prospect Nick Castellanos has also been a mainstay at third base for Detroit, but he's struggled to get on base enough in his first full season in the majors.

via ESPN Depth Charts

The pitching match-up this evening sees Drew Hutchison facing off against Anibal Sanchez, who has been the Tigers best starter so far this season. In eight starts, Sanchez has an ERA of 2.49 with a FIP of 2.22 and has not given up a single home run yet! About half of his pitches this season have been fastballs, while the slider and changeup have been the main off-speed pitches. Sanchez has slowly started to use his changeup more often against right-handed batters, making him a little less predictable against same-handed batters than he used to be. His slider is still his go-to breaking pitch and he buries it away in the dirt against right-handed hitters:

via www.brooksbaseball.net

Hopeful Lineup

1. Jose Reyes SS
2. Melky Cabrera LF
3. Jose Bautista RF
4. Adam Lind DH
5. Edwin Encarnacion 1B
6. Juan Francisco 3B
7. Brett Lawrie 2B
8. Dioner Navarro C
9. Anthony Gose CF

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Game In A Sentence

The Tigers will look to rebound from last night's disappointing loss tonight against R.A. Dickey and the Blue Jays.

Toronto Blue Jays (35-24) at Detroit Tigers (31-23)

Time/Place: 7:08 p.m., Comerica Park

SB Nation blog:Bluebird Banter

Media: Fox Sports Detroit, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network

Pitching Matchup: RHP R.A. Dickey (5-4, 4.30 ERA) vs. RHP Rick Porcello (8-2, 3.82 ERA)

Pitching in Toronto did not go well for R.A. Dickey last year. He struggled quite a bit at home, allowing a 4.80 ERA and 5.00 FIP. Meanwhile, he put up a 3.57 ERA and 4.13 FIP in 16 road starts. He allowed 1.78 home runs per nine innings at home, nearly double the rate he posted away from the Rogers Centre. This season, the opposite has occurred. Dickey has a 3.48 ERA and 3.55 FIP at home, but a 6.23 ERA and 4.86 FIP on the road. His home run rate is lower on the road again, but the telling figure this season is his strikeout-to-walk ratio. At home, he has tallied 47 strikeouts to 14 walks. In his four road starts? Dickey actually has more walks (18) than strikeouts (14).

Part of this can be attributed to a relatively small sample size. Eight of Dickey's 12 starts have come at home, which lets outings like his poor Opening Day effort in Tampa dominate the splits. Regardless of the ballpark, Dickey has not been the same pitcher he was with the New York Mets. He is walking nearly four batters per nine innings this season, a rate that almost doubles what he did during his 2012 Cy Young season. He is getting a fair number of swings and misses, though. His 10.4 percent whiff rate is the second-highest of his career, and he still throws first-pitch strikes more than 60 percent of the time.

If anything, the problem may be Dickey's fastball. He does not throw it often -- Brooks says 12 percent, Fangraphs says 18 percent -- but opposing batters seem to be sitting on it. They have put up a robust .843 OPS with a .259 ISO on the fastball (per Fangraphs) compared to a .662 OPS with a .119 ISO on the knuckler.

Rick Porcello was uncharacteristically wild in his last start, walking six batters in 5 2/3 innings. Naturally, this was a career high, but it was also only the second time since 2010 that Porcello had allowed more than three walks in a start. Despite allowing 12 total baserunners in his last outing -- he gave up five hits and plunked a batter -- he was able to dance out of trouble with just two runs allowed. One of the more perplexing stats of his outing is that Porcello threw first pitch strikes to 18 of the 28 batters he faced, a slightly higher percentage than his season-long rate of 61.6 percent. Of his 105 pitches thrown, 64 were for strikes, and he generated 10 whiffs. These numbers don't look like those of a pitcher battling his command, so it will be interesting to see how Porcello responds tonight.

Hitter to fear:Melky Cabrera (.471/.471/.588 in 17 plate appearances)
Hitter to fail:Adam Lind (.167/.286/.417 in 14 plate appearances)

Given the respective career platoon splits of Porcello and Adam Lind, it's surprising to see that the lefty slugger only has two hits in 12 at-bats off Porcello. Lind mashes righties -- he has a 1.106 OPS against them this season -- and has terrorized Tigers pitching in his career with eight home runs. Ditto for Melky Cabrera, who has a .790 career OPS at Comerica Park to go along with his eight hits in 17 plate appearances against Porcello. Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion also have good numbers, though neither has homered. Four of Encarnacion's five hits are doubles, however.

Outlook

Contrary to popular belief, the Tigers' recent offensive struggles have been fairly short-lived, and are likely magnified by Sunday's shutout. They put together a pair of solid efforts in Oakland before struggling in Seattle, but many have overlooked the fact that those two teams have the two best ERAs in the American League. Meanwhile, they still lead the league in batting average and rank in the top five in slugging average, wOBA, and wRC+. They will have their work cut out for them against Dickey, who has a 2.08 career ERA at Comerica Park. This is a small sample of just two starts and 21 2/3 innings (he also made three relief appearances) though, so anything could happen, especially if the ball is carrying well.

Prediction

Porcello and the Tigers get back on track with a much-needed victory.

After last night's win got a little too close for comfort, R.A. Dickey goes to the mound this evening looking to make it four in a row for the surging Blue Jays. Opposing him is New Jersey right-hander Rick Porcello who has a 3.68 ERA on the season. Porcello normally has an ERA way above his FIP thanks to some high BABIP's the last few seasons, but this year his ERA is sitting comfortably under his 3.93 FIP in part because the Tigers defence is helping him out a little bit more this year.

The right-hander distributes his pitch selection pretty evenly with fastballs and sinkers leading the way, while the changeup, curveball, and slider have all been thrown about 130 times this year (10%-15%). Against right-handers, Porcello mainly relies on a fastball and slider combination, but brings his curveball and changeup into play against opposite-handed batters.

The movement on his pitches is where he really shines, with his changeup perfectly mimicking his sinker with a difference of about 9 MPH being the only thing separating the two offerings:

As you can see from the chart above, Porcello also throws a nasty curveball that has a ton of break coming out of his 6'5" frame. In a piece published today, he told FanGraphs that he developed the curve because his sinker and changeup were so similar. It's mainly thrown when he's ahead in the count or with two strikes and it can make hitters look downright silly:

via s3-ak.buzzfed.com

Hopeful Lineup

Even with his additional weapons in play against left-handed hitters, Porcello still has pretty big platoon splits making a lefty-heavy lineup the best option for John Gibbons.

1. Jose Reyes SS
2. Melky Cabrera LF
3. Jose Bautsita RF
4. Adam Lind 1B
5. Edwin Encarnacion DH
6. Juan Francisco 3B
7. Brett Lawrie 2B
8. Anthony Gose CF
9. Josh Thole C

Find The Link

Game In A Sentence

The Blue Jays' first round picks have been mocked and discussed to death, with Trea Turner, Touki Toussaint and Jeff Hoffman the likely targets, while Max Pentecost could be in the mix as well. With two picks in the first round, it might be easy to forget that Blue Jays also pick in the second round on this first day of the draft.

Because of several free agent compensation picks, and the recently introduced competitive balance round, the Blue Jays' second round pick is the 49th overall pick in the draft. In the glorious years of the compensation pick (2009-2012), the 49th overall pick would have been somewhere in the supplemental first round. In 2012, the Blue Jays snapped up Matt Smoral with the 50th pick, a pitcher who could have gone in the first round proper if not for a foot injury which kept him off the mound for a while. I expect the Blue Jays will be looking for another first round talent in this year's second round. There's a lot of possibilities, so here are some names to watch:

Jakson Reetz, C, HS in Nebraska

Where is he ranked? 40th by MLB Pipeline, 46th by Perfect Game, 62nd by Baseball America, 65th by Scout.com

Why is he interesting? Well, for one, he won MVP honors at the Perfect Game All-American game, going 2-for-4 with a double against some of the best high school pitchers in the country. He's expected to be able to stick at catcher, but he's not exactly defense first, as his bat is mighty impressive. I wonder how much he gets knocked down because he's from Nebraska. The highest Nebraskan draftee in 2013 was drafted by the Blue Jays in the 22nd round, but he did not sign. Could the Jays go Nebraskan again?

Jacob Bukauskas, RHP, HS in Virginia

Where is he ranked? 28th by Scout.com, 33rd by Baseball America, 36th by Perfect Game, 38th by MLB Pipeline

Why is he interesting? Bukauskas was rising up draft boards all spring, and could have become sort of a 2014 version of Phil Bickford, had he not declared that he was going to the University of North Carolina no matter what. If he's bluffing (and I have no idea if he is), he could be a first-round talent available in the second round. But the rumors are that Bukauskas is sincere about not wanting to sign, so he likely goes undrafted.

Scott Blewett, RHP, HS in New York

Where is he ranked? 42th by Perfect Game, 51st by Scout.com, 51st by Baseball America, 55th by MLB Pipeline

Why is he interesting? Blewett's a prototypical projectable (6'6 tall) high school pitcher who has "Blue Jays kind of guy" written all over him. He was even picked by the Blue Jays in Minor League Ball's community mock draft. The reason he's dropping down draft boards is not his talent, but concern over injuries coupled with limited exposure due to playing in the cold weather of the northeastern United States. If you've heard this before, you're right, because it's similar to the story of Kevin Comer before he got drafted by the Blue Jays.

Cody Reed, LHP, HS in Alabama

Where is he ranked? 52nd by Baseball America, 61st by MLB Pipeline, 78th by Scout.com, 81st by Perfect Game

Why is he interesting? Reed's from a small town in Alabama, so his exposure has been somewhat limited. He also get knocked down boards for his weight. A lefty who's been up to 95 mph on the fastball, he would be my pick for "probably most underrated player in the draft". Here's a tweet about him:

Cody Reed finishes 4 inning outing w/93, 94 & then best curve of the day at 75: K looking. Interesting arm scouts haven't figured out yet.

— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) April 12, 2014

There's not a lot of info on Reed out there, but I'm sure some teams are very interested. Are the Blue Jays one of them? Reed is a Vanderbilt commit, so teams shouldn't expect to save money on the guy.

Gareth Morgan, RF, HS in Ontario

Where is he ranked? 65th by Baseball America, 73rd by Scout.com, 84th by MLB Pipeline, 91st by Perfect Game

Why is he interesting? Because he's Canadian. Like it or not, the Blue Jays draft more Canadians than any other team, so chances are they're interesting in Morgan, who could be gone by the time the Blue Jays have their 3rd round pick. I do think Canadians sometimes fly under the radar of scouts a bit, similar to other prospects from colder areas. That said, the powerful Morgan seems to be well known in the scouting world.

Garrett Fulenchek, RHP, HS in Texas

Where is he ranked? 52nd by Perfect Game 54th, by Baseball America, 57th by MLB Pipeline, 106th by Scout.com

Why is he interesting? Because he comes from a very small town in Texas (notice a theme yet?) and didn't pitch in the regular showcases, Fulenchek has been overlooked a bit. Fulenchek can now hit 94 mph, sitting in the low 90s and he's still projectable. His slider gets good reviews. Read more here and here.

Jordan Luplow, OF, Fresno State University

Where is he ranked? 71st by Scout.com, 94th by MLB Pipeline, 95th by Perfect Game, 105th by Baseball America

Why is he interesting? I wanted to get at least one college position player on here, and Luplow seemed like the most interesting player in that category. Luplow has had a big breakout season this year, hitting .377/.475/.609 with 36 walks and just 22 strikeouts. Luplow has shown even better bat-to-ball skills than the highly rated Max Pentecost, but does not have the same important defensive position, as Luplow seems likely to end up in right field. Luplow was also one of the best hitters at the Cape Cod league last year, though again Max Pentecost has him beat in that category. Luplow seems like a guy the Cardinals draft and then turn into the next Matt Carpenter.

Zech Lemond, RHP, Rice University

Where is he ranked? 45th by Scout.com, 57th by MLB Pipeline, 61st by Perfect Game, 78th by Baseball America

Why is he interesting? Zech Lemond was impressive as an emergency starter for Rice, but didn't hold up long at the 'pitcher abuse factory', getting sidelined with elbow inflammation after just five starts (which is ironic because an elbow injury to Rice's normal friday starter was what moved Lemond into the rotation in the first place). He has returned to throwing recently, but was back in his old role as closer. Perhaps he could have gone first round if not for the injury, as the buzz was good:

As mentioned on the podcast, Rice RHP Zech Lemond has taken to starting role, hitting 98 late in games & faces Jeff Hoffman tomorrow night.

— Kiley McDaniel (@kileymcd) April 3, 2014

Other sources have him more in the 92-96 mph range, which is still impressive. Lemond's secondaries don't seem to be as advanced, as he probably didn't need to rely on them much as closer.

Jake Stinnett, RHP, University of Maryland

Where is he ranked? 44th by Perfect Game, 67th by Baseball America, 72nd by MLB Pipeline, 81st by Scout.com

Why is he interesting? Jake Stinnett is the top college senior available this draft. While not as good as last year's top senior (Mark Appel), Stinnett should not be underestimated just because he took off a year later. Starting to focus on pitching only as a junior, Stinnett has turned into a good pitcher very quickly, with 123 Ks and 26 walks in 104 innings. And he's not a command only pitcher, either:

Maryland RHP Jake Stinnett ran FB up to 97 in 7th inning. FB life. 10 Ks, 1 BB. Surrendered 2 HR against Wake Forest. Allowed 4 runs

— Clint Longenecker (@Clint_BA) April 4, 2014

Like Lemond, Stinnett's offspeed pitches lag behind his fastball, but he's only recently started developing them, so there's some excuse for that. I don't think the Blue Jays are in on Stinnett, but I didn't want this to be another list of just high school guys.

Mitch Keller, RHP, HS in Iowa

Where is he ranked? 67th by Scout.com, 69th by MLB Pipeline, 76th by Baseball America, 90th by Perfect Game

Why is he interesting? Originally, I was not going to include Keller, despite thinking "this guy just feels like a Blue Jays draft pick". Then I read the Keith Law thinks the Jays are in on him, and now I've got to include him of course. Keller is projectable, but already pitches in the 89-94 mph range with a good, easy delivery and an impressive curveball. He's somewhat of a late riser, but I could totally see him going in the second round to the Jays. Keller hails from Iowa, not traditionally a prospect hotbed, but a state the Blue Jays have drafted Kellen Sweeney (one of the highest Iowa draftees in recent history) and Derrick Loveless (currently impressing at low-A Lansing) from.

While we wait for the Draft to start, feel free to discuss everything draft, including the latest rumors of Tyler Kolek sliding!

Whether it is by accident or by design the Blue Jays are swinging at a lot more 3-0 pitches in 2014.

The idea of the "green light" has always been a strange one to me.

The way TV broadcasters explain the concept of hitting with a 3-0 count is usually far more binary than it can possibly be in reality. If you are an established great hitter, or are "seeing the ball well" you have the "green light", AKA permission to swing. If you are inexperienced, or just not very good, you have to be "taking all the way".

When a 3-0 pitch comes in, there is a very high chance that one of those phrases will be used to explain the actions of the batter by whoever is calling the game. However, there is no way it is that simple. There are surely times when a guy has the "green light" but lays off because the pitch wasn't what he had in mind or decides to swing despite being advised against it because the meatball is too juicy.

We don't even really know how explicit instructions to hitters might be or how active a role a manger takes in this matter. Surely different managers and/or hitting coaches have different ideas about who should swing the bat in 3-0 counts and when. Yet, despite all this uncertainty and all these complications, the imagery of the green light and stop sign endures in the imagination of commentators and, as a result, fans.

Whichever way you slice it, 3-0 counts can be a fascinating thing. The outcome is virtually certain, but it's just uncertain enough that it doesn't feel automatic. Whenever that fourth pitch comes in part of our brain, probably not the sharpest part, is thinking "Come on just swing for it, you know it's going to be right down the pipe, you can kill it". That thought process is activated despite the fact that even the most casual fan knows that a batter will take a 3-0 pitch almost every time. That "almost" creates some drama though. This year, hitters have swung for 3-0 pitches a measly 7.4% of the time, but it's just enough to be captivating.

Interestingly, the 2014 Blue Jays have bucked the trend when it comes to swinging for 3-0 pitches, doing so on more occasions than any other team in baseball. As a team with a bunch of accomplished sluggers that shouldn't seem altogether surprising, but it is when put in the context of what they did in this area last year with an almost identical lineup.

The following chart shows, how often the Blue Jays have swung 3-0 in 2013 and 2014 with their MLB ranks in each category in brackets.

The individual sample sizes here are tiny, but I think it is worth noting that the Jays have already taken more 3-0 cuts this year than they did all of last season. Not only that, but they have gone from one of the most conservative "green light" teams to one of the most aggressive in a single year.

It's hard to give a satisfactory explanation for this phenomenon. Perhaps the hitters on this club have earned a longer leash with the hot bats they've been wielding so far. Maybe this is a Kevin Seitzer thing, as he is the most obvious difference maker to this team's hitting approach and he wasn't here in 2013.

What we do know is that in an overall sense this doesn't really make a dent. The 14 3-0 swings the Blue Jays have taken this year have resulted in two singles and three outs, so this is an interesting quirk to look for going forward as opposed to any kind of explanation for anything that has happened in 2014.

In fact, this year when it comes to overall approach the Blue Jays have been almost identical to last season's team regardless of what Buck and Pat are trying to sell at the moment about a more selective squad.

Ultimately you could look at the this team's increased aggressiveness on 3-0 counts and be justified in saying "so what?" given the minimal effect it will have on how this team produces offensively. That would be a completely reasonable stance.

However,  it might also be reasonable to think that the Blue Jays are going to do something interesting and improbable when they have three balls and no strikes against them more than the vast majority of the teams in this league. On a microscopic level I think that makes them more fun to watch. It's definitely going to have me watching more carefully on 3-0 counts.

When it comes to pure entertainment value being slightly less predictable in predictable situations beats towering home runs any time. Right?

Smokey, this is not 'Nam. This is bowling. There are rules.

Toronto Blue Jays (36-24) at Detroit Tigers (31-24)

Time/Place: 1:08 p.m., Comerica Park

SB Nation blog:Bluebird Banter

Media: Fox Sports Detroit, MLB Network MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network

Pitching Matchup: LHP J.A. Happ (4-2, 4.10 ERA) vs. RHP Justin Verlander (6-4, 3.99 ERA)

Way out west there was this fella ... fella I wanna tell ya about. Fella by the name of J.A. Happ. At least that was the handle his loving parents gave him, but he never had much use for it himself. Mr. Happ, he called himself "The Dude." Now, "Dude" -- that's a name no one would self-apply where I come from. But then there was a lot about the Dude that didn't make a whole lot of sense. And a lot about where he lived, likewise. But then again, maybe that's why I found the place so darned interestin'. They call Toronto the "Queen City." I didn't find it to be that, exactly. But I'll allow there are some nice folks there. 'Course I can't say I've seen London, and I ain't never been to France. And I ain't never seen no queen in her damned undies, so the feller says.

But I'll tell you what -- after seeing Toronto, and this here story I'm about to unfold, well, I guess I seen somethin' every bit as stupefyin' as you'd see in any of them other places. And in English, too. So I can die with a smile on my face, without feelin' like the good Lord gypped me. Now this here story I'm about to unfold took place back in the early '90s -- just about the time of our conflict with Sad'm and the I-raqis. I only mention it because sometimes there's a man ... I won't say a hero, 'cause, what's a hero? But sometimes, there's a man. And I'm talkin' about the Dude here. Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's the Dude, in Toronto. And even if he's a lazy man -- and the Dude was most certainly that. Quite possibly the laziest in Ontario, which would place him high in the runnin' for laziest worldwide. But sometimes there's a man, sometimes, there's a man. Aw. I lost my train of thought here. But ... aw, hell. I've done introduced him enough.

Meanwhile, Justin Verlander is not Jewish. He is Polish Catholic.

Hitter to fear:Jose Reyes (.571/.625/.714 in 8 plate appearances)
Hitter to fail:Melky Cabrera (.182/.240/.273 in 25 plate appearances)

Individual matchups between Verlander and Blue Jays hitters have been interesting, to say the least. Of the eight hitters on their roster Verlander has faced, Jose Reyes is the only one with a batting average above .240. However, four players (including Reyes) are slugging over .500. Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind have both homered twice, while Jose Bautista has a dinger of his own. Overall, Verlander has held the Jays to a .679 OPS, but has allowed a 4.02 ERA in eight starts. Only Lind and Encarnacion remain from the Blue Jays team that Verlander no-hit in 2011.

Outlook

Danny was a good bowler, and a good man. He was one of us. He was a man who loved the outdoors ... and bowling, and as a surfer he explored the beaches of Southern California, from La Jolla to Leo Carrillo and ... up to ... Pismo. He got designated for assignment, like so many young men of his generation, he was DFA'd before his time. In your wisdom, Lord, you took him, as you took so many bright flowering young men at Khe Sanh, at Langdok, at Hill 364. These young men gave their lives. And so would Danny. Danny, who loved bowling. And so, Daniel Weston Worth, in accordance with what we think your final wishes might well have been, we commit your final Tiger remains to the bosom of the Detroit River, which you loved so well. Good night, sweet prince.

Prediction

Screw it, dude, let's go bowling.

The Blue Jays ride three home runs to victory, dooming the Tigers to a season high fifth straight loss.

Toronto Blue Jays (36-24) at Detroit Tigers (31-24)

Time/Place: 1:08 p.m., Comerica Park

SB Nation blog:Bluebird Banter

Media: Fox Sports Detroit, MLB Network MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network

Pitching Matchup: LHP J.A. Happ (4-2, 4.10 ERA) vs. RHP Justin Verlander (6-4, 3.99 ERA)

Way out west there was this fella... fella I wanna tell ya about. Fella by the name of J.A. Happ At least that was the handle his loving parents gave him, but he never had much use for it himself. Mr. Happ, he called himself "The Dude". Now, "Dude" - that's a name no one would self-apply where I come from. But then there was a lot about the Dude that didn't make a whole lot of sense. And a lot about where he lived, likewise. But then again, maybe that's why I found the place so darned interestin'. They call Toronto the "Queen City." I didn't find it to be that, exactly. But I'll allow there are some nice folks there. 'Course I can't say I've seen London, and I ain't never been to France. And I ain't never seen no queen in her damned undies, so the feller says.

But I'll tell you what - after seeing Toronto, and this here story I'm about to unfold, well, I guess I seen somethin' every bit as stupefyin' as you'd see in any of them other places. And in English, too. So I can die with a smile on my face, without feelin' like the good Lord gypped me. Now this here story I'm about to unfold took place back in the early '90s - just about the time of our conflict with Sad'm and the I-raqis. I only mention it because sometimes there's a man... I won't say a hero, 'cause, what's a hero? But sometimes, there's a man. And I'm talkin' about the Dude here. Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's the Dude, in Toronto. And even if he's a lazy man - and the Dude was most certainly that. Quite possibly the laziest in Ontario, which would place him high in the runnin' for laziest worldwide. But sometimes there's a man, sometimes, there's a man. Aw. I lost my train of thought here. But... aw, hell. I've done introduced him enough.

Meanwhile, Justin Verlander is not Jewish. He is Polish Catholic.

Hitter to fear:Jose Reyes (.571/.625/.714 in 8 plate appearances)
Hitter to fail:Melky Cabrera (.182/.240/.273 in 25 plate appearances)

Individual matchups between Verlander and Blue Jays hitters have been interesting, to say the least. Of the eight hitters on their roster Verlander has faced, Jose Reyes is the only one with a batting average above .240. However, four players (including Reyes) are slugging over .500. Edwin Encarnacion and Adam Lind have both homered twice, while Jose Bautista has a dinger of his own. Overall, Verlander has held the Jays to a .679 OPS, but has allowed a 4.02 ERA in eight starts. Only Lind and Encarnacion remain from the Blue Jays team that Verlander no-hit in 2011.

Outlook

Danny was a good bowler, and a good man. He was one of us. He was a man who loved the outdoors... and bowling, and as a surfer he explored the beaches of Southern California, from La Jolla to Leo Carrillo and... up to... Pismo. He died, like so many young men of his generation, he died before his time. In your wisdom, Lord, you took him, as you took so many bright flowering young men at Khe Sanh, at Langdok, at Hill 364. These young men gave their lives. And so would Danny. Danny, who loved bowling. And so, Daniel Weston Worth, in accordance with what we think your final wishes might well have been, we commit your final Tiger remains to the bosom of the Detroit River, which you loved so well. Good night, sweet prince.

Prediction

Screw it, dude, let's go bowling.

Happy draft day everyone! Thankfully the MLB knows how much we BBB'ers enjoy the draft and decided to put the Blue Jays game at 1:08pm so there's no conflict with the 7:00pm start of the event tonight. The starting pitching contest this afternoon is a slight mismatch, with J.A. Happ taking on Cy Young award winner Justin Verlander. There's never really a good time to face off against one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, but the Virginia native has been a little off in his past four starts allowing five, five, six, and three earned runs respectively:

via Baseball Reference

It's hard not to just enjoy watching Justin Verlander pitch, with his effortless delivery and pinpoint command of his mid-90's fastball, so seeing him go up against the Blue Jays sluggers will make for can't-miss afternoon viewing. The right-hander keeps it pretty simple with his pitches, throwing a fastball half the time, while his nasty curveball, changeup, and slider make up the other half. As with almost every other Tigers right hander, he mainly throws just a fastball and slider against same-handed batters, while his curveball makes a much bigger impact against left-handers. Our friends over at Bless You Boys have a great GIF that shows what Verlander brings the table:

via blessyouboys.com

Just a note on J.A. Happ that I came across when searching FanGraphs trying to figure out how the lefty is performing better this year without any clear improvement in his stuff or peripherals, which is similar to what Nick looked at recently as well. With a LOB% of 85.1%, Happ is stranding 11.2% more baserunners than his career average, which is often a sign of good fortune (along with BABIP and HR/FB) that usually regresses to a rate of about 72%. In such a small sample, Happ has looked better this year in large part because the runners on base are rarely being converted into runs by the opposing teams, which is bound to change a bit. It would take a closer inspection to draw any meaningful conclusions, but it's to be expected that Happ will begin to look a little more like his usual self when his strand rate begins to drop a bit.

Actual Lineup

No Edwin Encarnacion after his back troubled him during last night's game.

Blue Jays lineup. Encarnacion on the bench (back). pic.twitter.com/ULyEnYjdkd

— Chris Vannini (@ChrisVannini) June 5, 2014

Find The Link

Find the link between Justin Verlander and the most famous shortstop at the Hamilton Correctional Institute.

Game In A Sentence

Sit down at your TV around 1:00pm and enjoy Justin Verlander against the Blue Jays and then the MLB draft in a baseball lover's doubleheader.

Jose Bautista collected two right field-to-first base putouts last week. How much did Toronto's artificial turf help him make those spectacular plays?

In last weekend's series against the Royals, Jose Bautista took a single away from Billy Butler with a great throw off a healthy bounce. A GIF doesn't do the play justice -- you should really go watch the video -- but here you go anyway, as assembled by August Fagerstrom:

via fangraphs.com

As impressive as Bautista's throw was, I couldn't help wondering how much the Rogers Centre's artificial turf factored into the play. Everyone always says that artificial turf is "faster," but what does that mean? And how would it have affected how Butler's line drive bounced?

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All-star baseball physicist Alan Nathan pointed me to this paper from Penn State's Center for Sports Surface Research. The purpose of the paper is to introduce the Pennbounce, a device the authors invented to measure the speed of a baseball bouncing off a playing field. The authors tested their device by shooting baseballs at a predetermined speed and angle at AstroTurf, FieldTurf, natural grass, and "skinned infield" (i.e., infield dirt).

For the purposes of this article, we'll focus on a 90 mph ball (31 m/s) striking the turf at a 25 degree (0.44 radian) angle, since these parameters seem closest to a line drive like the one Butler hit. Since the Rogers Centre uses AstroTurf GameDay Grass, a surface designed to compete with FieldTurf, we'll compare the results obtained on FieldTurf with those from natural grass. The authors' findings for this case are presented below.

In this table, COR stands for coefficient of restitution, the ratio of a ball's speed after impact to its speed before impact. We can use the COR to estimate the angle at which the ball bounced off the turf:

Once this is calculated, we can plug the speed and angle at which the ball left the turf into the projectile motion equations to find how far each ball traveled.* The figure below compares the two paths: the blue path representing the ball after hitting a FieldTurf surface, and the red path representing the first few bounces after hitting a grass surface. Each dot is 50 ms apart, so you can get a sense of not only the distance covered but also each ball's speed.

* - We're using Robert Adair's 95 mph figure for the terminal velocity of a baseball.

Go look at the video again, paying attention to how far away Bautista is when the ball first bounces (you can see the rubber pellets the ball kicks up from the turf) and where he catches the ball. It doesn't match the graph very well -- no way does Butler's liner travel 10 feet in the air -- because the angle of incidence is much less than the 25 degrees we assumed. But we can still see that Bautista gets to the ball shortly after its apex. From the graph above, we can infer that if Bautista is playing on a grass surface, he is probably picking Butler's liner off the turf rather than catching the ball at chest height.

That's not the only issue here, of course. A ball bouncing off a grass outfield loses velocity faster, and thus takes longer to travel the same distance. So not only would Bautista needed to bend over to get Butler's single, he would have taken longer to get to the ball. This table shows the time between bounces in the table below. The ball bouncing off FieldTurf travels 23 m in about 1.5 s, whereas the same ball bouncing off natural grass would only cover 17 m or so in the same amount of time.

These are really small differences we're talking about here -- an extra fraction of a second to get to the ball, another fraction of a second to bend down a little more -- so it might be tempting to dismiss this effect as negligible. But the difference between what scouts would call an 80 runner (Billy Hamilton) and a 20 runner (a guy nicknamed "Country Breakfast") is about half a second. Butler was out by a whole step, sure, but if Bautista had taken an extra quarter of a second Butler probably beats that throw.

Given the information, we can conclude that Bautista probably wouldn't have been able to throw out Butler on the same batted ball on a grass surface. That's not to diminish Bautista's play -- it still took a tremendous throw and the know-how to read the bounce* to get the assist. But if Bautista gets credit for an outfield assist on the play, maybe the outfield itself should get one too.

* - This makes me wonder if teams that play their home games on turf get more outfield assists than teams that play on grass. Maybe some other time.

. . .

Special thanks to Alan Nathan for his patience and expertise. Any conceptual errors are the author's fault, not his.

Bryan Cole is a featured writer for Beyond the Box Score who hates those little rubber pellets in FieldTurf fields. You can follow him on Twitter at @Doctor_Bryan.

The Reds have chosen wisely of late. They'll hope to continue that success beginning tonight.

If you've been a fan of the Cincinnati Reds long enough to remember the early aughts, you should probably start sending fan mail to Chris Buckley.

Buckley, you may know, is the Senior director of amateur scouting for the Reds, and he's been on board with the club for every draft since 2006.  In that time, the Reds have selected 14 players in either the 1st round or compensation round, and the quality of turnout produced by those picks has been rather remarkable.

Each of the players taken in the 1st round from 2006 to 2010 has spent multiple seasons in the majors already (Drew Stubbs, Devin Mesoraco, Yonder Alonso, Mike Leake, and Yasmani Grandal).  Todd Frazier and Brad Boxberger - comp picks in 2007 and 2009, respectively - have also spent multiple seasons in the big leagues with significant success.  None of the 1st rounders or comp picks taken since 2011 has cracked the 25-man roster yet, but that's more due to age and experience than it is a reflection on their talent.  Robert Stephenson, 2011's 1st rounder, is one of the top right-handed pitching prospects in the minors, and both Phillip Ervin&Jesse Winker have cracked multiple Top 100 prospect lists thanks to the hitting prowess they've displayed so far.  Michael Lorenzen, drafted just last year, has made the transition to being a starting pitcher at an absurd development rate and is already mowing through Double-A batters.  Nick Travieso, drafted in the 1st round in 2012, has yet to progress at ludicrous speed, but he's building quite a nice season as a 20 year old in Single-A Dayton right now (6-2, 3.17 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) and still projects as a decent starting pitcher.

Realistically, that means that the only two players who have seemingly not panned out among those 14 are 2007 comp pick Kyle Lotzkar and 2012 comp pick Jeff Gelalich.  Not coincidentally, those are the only two of the 14 that were drafted later than 50th overall, with Lotzkar coming off the board 53rd overall and Gelalich 57th.  And heck, both are still under 25 years old, and if Buckley saw something in them there's still a chance they develop into Shane Victorino and Joe Nathan, or so.

It's hard to truly appreciate how important good drafts have been to the winning on the field in Great American Ball Park, and it hasn't just been the 1st rounders that have made huge impacts.  Billy Hamilton (2nd round, 2009), Zack Cozart (2nd, 2007), and Chris Heisey (17th round, 2006) are all considered cogs on the 25-man roster, and both Sam LeCure (4th round, 2005) and Logan Ondrusek (13th round, 2005) have been counted on heavily out of the bullpen.  Buckley & Co. found Tony Cingrani (3rd round, 2011) as a college closer before turning him into a starter in the minors.  While Homer Bailey (1st round, 2004) and Joey Votto (2nd round, 2002) predate Buckley's time on the job, the importance of them panning out shouldn't be downplayed at all.

So if you head to a bar for a beer & to watch the Reds game, if you don your Reds jersey when you're not even heading to a game, or if you frequently stop by Red Reporter to drop a BOOM BOOM CLAP in the game thread, it's probably because of the job Chris Buckley has done to help build a homegrown team that's massively easy to root for.  Frankly, the guy deserves a hug from us all.

★★★

Thanks to the Collective Bargaining Agreement's Free-Agent signing system, the top of the 2014 MLB Draft reads like a "Choose Your Own Adventure" novel.  Teams lost their top picks in the draft by signing players who had declined extended qualifying offers, teams that extended qualifying offers but had them declined received compensation picks that bumped up the overall order (unless, of course, the pick was protected because the team was so bad the previous year), and if a team signed multiple players attached to compensation they forfeited later picks in the draft.

Follow that?

What's left - and what's important to we Reds faithful - is that Cincinnati will have the 19th and 29th overall picks tonight, the first one based on their 2013 record and a few forfeited picks and the second one based on getting a compensation pick when Shin-Soo Choo declined his qualifying offer.  That provides Buckley, Walt Jocketty, & Eric Davis's awesome earrings with a chance to bring home a pair of top-flight prospects to bolster a system that's thin on developed talent.

There are thousands of players eligible for the MLB Draft, and if you choose to comb through the various mock drafts and projections you'll find a different player taken by the Reds in each of them.  One thing we do know for sure is that the Reds will absolutely take the best player available on their draft board regardless of whether it seems systemically redundant.  They took Yasmani Grandal in 2010 despite the presence of Devin Mesoraco as the "catcher of the future," and Yonder Alonso was similarly drafted despite the then-recent emergence of Joey Votto as Ubermensch the previous year.

Some names, however, have continually been linked to the Reds, so I'll gloss over them briefly thanks to the miracle of people who know about these things having laptops and the internet.

• Baseball America has the Reds going with RHP Tyler Beede at 19 and RHP Sean Reid-Foley at 29.  Beede, you may recall, was a 1st round pick by the Toronto Blue Jays in 2011, but didn't sign.  Instead, he opted to attend the coolest college on the planet for a few years, refine his game, and hope to get drafted by the franchise supported by the Not Quite Best Fans in Baseball.  Beede sits in the mid-90's with his fastball, has both a curve & a change that can be strikeout pitches, and would likely be a pretty quick mover in the system if taken.  Reid-Foley, who has a hyphened-name, has a solid 91-95 mph fastball and the potential for a plus breaking ball, and he apparently already employs the use of a cutter, which is cool.  He was also born in August of 1995, which makes me feel so old I can barely stand it.  He's a prep arm from Florida who has Number 2 upside according to me.
• Keith Law, if you're into that sort of snark, has the Reds taking RHP Touki Toussaint with the 19th pick and...wait a minute...he stops his mock draft at 27 in order to deprive us from knowing what the compensation round will hold.  He also put it behind ESPN's Insider pay-wall, so you may not get much of anything out of this.  Just know this:  if the Reds draft Touki, a native of Haiti who can hit 98 mph with his fastball, the Farmer's Only crew will rejoice at a whole, brave new world of nicknaming.  Toussaint probably won't be around at 19 though, as Law acknowledges, which means the whole mock draft idea was dumb and stupid and dumb.  And stupid.  Toussaint is also conveniently committed to the coolest college on the planet (should he not sign after being drafted, of course).
• Jim Callis and the MLB.com crew have the Reds selecting LHP Brandon Finnegan at 19 and RHP Spencer Adams at 29.  Finnegan famously owns a bar in Glendale, AZ that sits in a run-down strip mall between a tunnel, a canal, and a broken down amusement park, and is frequented by mustachioed baseball bloggers who use pseudonyms and are addicted to Big Buck Hunter.  Somehow, Finnegan found a way to attend TCU on the side while not pouring a mean Guinness, it appears.  He's got a pretty potent fastball, a solid slider, but his Corned Beef & Cabbage Taquitos need a lot of work.  A LOT.  Spencer Adams is a guy named Spencer from Georgia, so he probably has sweet hair and plays a lot of golf.  A LOT.
• Jon Heyman has the Reds taking Reid-Foley at 19 and RHP Luke Weaver at 29.  His reasoning behind the selection of Weaver:  Florida State right-hander Luke Weaver has maybe dropped a bit.  #Analysis #hugetits.

More from Red Reporter

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• Reds vs. Giants, Game 3: Previews and Predictions
• Vomit on their jersey, Reds' spaghetti. SFG 3, CIN 2.
• Reds vs. Giants, Game 2: Previews and Predictions
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The Tornto Blue Jays rode three home runs to a 7-3 win over the badly slumping Detroit Tigers. The Tigers have lost a season high five in a row, 7-of-10 and 13-of-17.

The draft is to start at 7:00 Eastern.

We have picks 9 and 11. Teams have 4 minutes and 30 seconds between picks so we should get our first pick by about 7:40 Eastern.

Things speed up for the Competitve Balance Round and the second round; time between picks is to be 1 minute, so it all should just motor by.

On MLB.com Jonathan Mayo and Jim Callis each have a mock draft up. They both are picking Trea Turner and Jeff Hoffman as our numbers #9 and #11 picks. I always want these mock drafts to be wrong, not because I dislike the players they have us picking (though I'm not totally sold on Turner yet) but just because I like to see mock drafts be totally wrong.

Anyway, join in the thread. We have at least an hour to speculate on who the Jays will pick and then find out we are all wrong.

An as-they-pick-'em reference for the 2014 Major League Baseball amateur draft.

Stay with us all night long as we update who-went-where, who-took-which, and the presumed proto-stars that wait as long as Johnny Manziel did or get snubbed altogether. For more on the draft see the rest of our coverage, including how to watch it, here.

With the ninth pick in the MLB Draft, the Blue Jays selected right-handed pitcher Jeff Hoffman out of East Carolina University. Hoffman was born in Latham, New York on January 8, 1993 and stands at 6'3" and 190 lbs. We previewed him earlier this month leading into the draft and noted that he only slid this far thanks to Tommy John surgery this spring. Hoffman was featured in a great New York Times piece recently and he was quoted as saying:

It’s going to be tough if I fall a little further. But everything happens for a reason, and whatever team takes the so-called risk and drafts me is going to get the best player in the draft.

Earlier in the evening, high school left-hander Brady Aiken was selected first in the draft by the Astros followed by Tyler Kolek and Carlos Rodon to the Marlins and White Sox respectively.

Keith Law notes the lack of leverage that Hoffman has and thinks it sets them up perfectly for later in the draft:

If I were GM Alex Anthopoulos -- humo(u)r me for a moment while I inject my own opinion -- I'd take Hoffman and offer him half of the slot figure, $2,888,300, for this pick.

Hoffman has no alternative. He's out until roughly this time next year recovering from Tommy John surgery, so he can't go back to school and improve his draft stock because he won't pitch. He still gets seven figures and can rehab with a professional team that's invested in getting him healthy for the long haul, and the Jays get enough to grab at least one more first-round talent, maybe two, with later selections -- someone like Iowa prep righty Mitch Keller, whom I've heard them on in the second round.

In an analysis of the pick over at ESPN, Christopher Crawford said:

If Hoffman were healthy, he would have been a lock for the top four, as some compared him to a poor man's Adam Wainwright. Giving a timetable is impossible, but he could be a replacement for the aging Blue Jays' rotation in the next few years, assuming he recovers to where he was.

You can take a look at what Hoffman will bring to the Blue Jays once he recovers from his surgery:

After picking RHP Jeff Hoffman out of ECU only moments ago, the Blue Jays have selected catcher Max Pentecost out of Kennesaw State University with their second pick in the first round of the MLB Draft at 11th overall. This pick was, of course, compensation for failing to sign Phil Bickford in the 2013 draft with the 10th overall pick. Pentecost is a right-handed catcher who stands at 6'1" 190 lbs and was born on March 10, 1993 in Athens, Georgia.

Keith Law ranked Pentecost 22nd in the draft and had this to say about him:

The draft's best pure catcher, Pentecost can catch, throw, run and hit for average. The biggest question facing him is how his unorthodox swing will handle wood bats and pro pitching.

Pentecost was picked in the seventh round by the Texas Rangers three years ago and is considered a prospect who will be able to stick at catcher in pro ball. He's certainly not a 'sexy' pick with no skills popping out at you, but as noted over at ESPN:

There isn't one skill that jumps out when you watch Pentecost, and if you look at the 20-80 grades you might think he looks very mundane; but those can be a bit misleading. An everyday catcher who can get on base and produce average power totals and won't kill you with the glove is something that every club covets...

Pentecost has had Tommy John surgery already, similar to the other Blue Jays first rounder Jeff Hoffman, with the plate discipline and defensive skills to move fairly quickly (for a catcher) through the Blue Jays system. Being a college player the Blue Jays shouldn't have to go over-slot (just under $2.9 million) for Pentecost, meaning Alex Anthopoulos will have a lot of flexibility in the next few rounds when trying to take prep players with strong commitments.

The right-handed hitter didn't face the greatest of competition at Kennesaw State University, but he hit .424/.479/.631 with nine home runs and 16 stolen bases in 60 games this season.

In an analysis of the pick, Chris Crawford said:

Pentecost was rumored to go as high as pick No. 4 to the Cubs, but at the end of the day he went where his value suggested he should. None of his tools are plus, but as a catcher who has average-to-above-average tools across the board, he could move through the Blue Jays system expeditiously, and Toronto fans are well aware that they are in need of a catcher of the future.