In a streak of good starts, we, finally, don't waste one. Nice to get a well pitched win on Canada Day, in front of a great crowd.
Drew Hutchison went 7 innings, allowed just 3 hits, 1 earned, 2 walks with 10 strikeouts. He didn't allow a base runner until 2 out in the 5th, a infield single that Jose Reyes tried to make a play on, but his throw was just off the bag at first. It was a good effort. The only innings Drew had any real troubles were the 6th and 7th. In the 6th he gave up a single to Scooter Gennett and a RBI double to Ryan Braun, the only run Drew would give up. In the 7th, he loaded the bases on 2 walks and a hit batter but got of it. He was having a lot of fun with the high fastball.
Aaron Loup started the 8th inning and hit Rickie Weeks with his 0-2 pitch, bad time to hit a batter. Gibby brought Dustin McGowan in and he got a quick double play, game up a walk and got Carlos Gomez to strikeout. Casey Janssen worked an easy 9th for the 1-inning, 3 run save.
We got enough offense, more would have been ok too, but the way we hit in June, 4 runs seems like a big time breakout for the bats:
Jose Bautista, in his first game back, hit a home run in the first inning.
And we got two insurance runs in the 8th. Pinch hitter Adam Lind singled, and was pinch run for by Darin Mastroianni. After roughly 45 pick off throws to first, Melky Cabrera tripled, scoring Darin. If I'm the manager I want my pitch focusing on the batter, but thankfully Rob Wooten let Mastroianni distract him. Edwin Encarnacion followed that with a double, high off the center field wall. Just a couple of feet short of a homer.
We had 9 hits on the day. 4 of them for extra bases. Everyone in the starting lineup had one hit except for Anthony Gose and Adam Lind's hit came in his spot on the lineup.
Lind's at bat was interesting. Brewers lefty reliever Zack Duke finished the 7th inning and was to start the 8th, but Gibbons put Brad Glenn to pinch hit for Gose. The Brewers brought in right-hander Wooten, so Gibby pinch hit Lind for his pinch hitter, making us wonder why he didn't do a similar move yesterday, when the White Sox brought in a left to pitch to Lind. It worked out great today.
Jays of the Day are Hutchison (.356 WPA) and McGowan (.210). I'll give honorable mention to Bautista and Rasmus for their home runs.
No one gets the Suckage number, though Loup comes close with a -.086 for his hit batter.
The second half of this mid-week two-game set with the Brewers kicks off today at 12:37 as Wily Peralta takes on J.A. Happ. The Dominican right-hander has been the Brewers second-best starter this year (behind Kyle Lohse) and looks to build on the great start to his second full season with Milwaukee. With a 3.20 ERA Peralta doesn't blow anyone away, but the ground-ball pitcher had been consistently putting in solid performances up until about mid-May. Since then, Peralta's ERA has jumped from almost 2.00 to the aforementioned 3.20 mark and opposing teams are getting a lot more hits off the righty.
His pitches are pretty straightforward with a fastball, sinker and slider combination looking to induce weak contact and ground balls from hitters. His fastballs have some jump on them, regularly hitting mid to high-90's on the radar gun. Even his slider is 86 MPH, so obviously everything the Dominican throws comes fast and with movement. As you can see, there isn't a ton of difference between his fastball and sinker:
If his 53.2% GB-rate didn't convince you that Peralta is a ground ball pitcher then this should do it:
Words I thought I'd never type again, Edwin Encarnacion is playing left field for the Blue Jays today. That moves Melky Cabrera over to right field and lets Bautista DH and Lind play 1B.
I'm not a fan of the idea but that's what we got. If I remember right, last time Edwin played in left he hurt himself. Gibby wants all his bats in the lineup.
The Blue Jays have signed two international free agents:
Juan Meza as a 16 year old pitcher from Venezuela. He's 6'3", 190 pounds. He throws a low 90's fastball. Baseball America has him as the 10th best international prospect.
Kevin Vicuna is a 16 year old Venezuelan shortstop. He's 5'11", 140 pound. Said to a be a good defensive player. Baseball America has him as the 30th best international prospect.
Meza has a nice, smooth delivery and repeats well. He looks like a good athelte and his fastball is in the mid to upper 80's like most of the top arms. His changeup looks excellent but I didn't see a good breaking ball. From his arm slot, a good breaking ball would be difficult. He may end up working on a slider but he's 16 and has a live arm. I bet he's a 7 figure guy as well.
This game deserves a longer recap, we'll revisit it later. The good news is that Edwin Encarnacion hit a game winning home run in the bottom of the 9th. 2-on, 2-outs, in the bottom of the 9th, Edwin up. I was sure they would pitch around him, even to load the bases, but they didn't and Edwin hit the ball a mile.
There was a ton of stuff that went on in that game:
Earlier in the 9th, with Jose Reyes on second and Melky Cabrera (who was intentionally walked, I dislike the intentional walk, but, in this case, I wouldn't have done it because it made it far more likely that Edwin would come up in the inning, I'd much rather pitch to Melky than Edwin), Anthony Gose tried to bunt, bunts it back to the pitcher, who goes to third, for the easy force out. I dislike bunting, especially with runners at first and second. The Brewers were crashing the plate, Gose had almost nowhere to put the ball down and get a successful bunt. And, of course, with them crashing the plate, slapping a ball some where fair, has so much more of a chance to work. It didn't help that Darin Mastroianni struck out after. Thankfully Edwin homered.
Another amazing thing, when Anthony came to the plate, in the 9th, the Brewers took their lefty reliever out to bring in a right-hander. Seemed a silly move.
In the 7th, we had runners at first and second and Mastroianni up. He bunted one right off the plate, catcher jumped out in front of him and threw to third, getting the out and then they went to first, to get the out. Darin didn't get out of the box quick, I think he felt the ball was foul, and I don't think he wanted to run into the catcher. I think he would have been out easy anyway. It was a quick play. Mostly it was a terrible bunt by Darin. Again, it was tough, the Brewers were crashing the plate, but he had to do better with that bunt. I hate bunting, for some reason people seem to think it always works.
After the failed bunt, Jose Bautista was on second and, with two outs, Gibby pulled him for Gose to pinch run. I think in part because he didn't want Bautista to have to try to run full out. But, Jose's spot in the order would come up in the ninth. Gibby is closer to the players....I'm sure they didn't want Jose to hurt himself again trying to score.
The strike zone was terrible. We had a number of pitches high out of the strike zone called against us. And some wide ones.
J.A. Happ pitched a very good game. He had one bad inning. With a bit of fielding that inning would have been better. He gave up a lead off ground ball single, that bounced just over him. He should have made the play, but then, he was hit in the head last year. I'm sure self preservation is his first thought. After a ground rule double, there was a Ryan Braun hit to the track that Colby Rasmus got to, but had the ball go off his glove for a triple. He should have caught it. As Zaun said, the lack of a real warning track likely worked against Colby. He was worried about the wall while he wasn't close. If he could feel the track he would have known it was further away and, likely, would have made the catch.
Happ went 7 innigns, allowed 6 hits, 4 earned (I thought Colby's non-catch should have been an error, so some of those runs should/could be unearned). 0 walks (Happ went seven without a walk? wow) with 4 strikeouts.
Both managers were thrown out of the game. Roenicke for arguing that Steve Tolleson swung at a pitch that hit him (he didn't). And Gibby for arguing after a replay showed Tolleson was out trying to go to second on a wild pitch. Tolleson was out, but Gibby was frustraited by the lousy strike zone and by a replay that clearly showed Munenori Kawasaki was safe, but wasn't overturned by the donuts in New York.
Our other runs were scored: on a first inning Bautista home run, a 3rd inning Adam Lind RBI double and a 4th inning Juan Francisco 2-run homer (on a breaking ball!).
There is more, but I have to do real work at some point today.
Jays of the Day are Edwin (.361 WPA), Francisco (.253), Melky (.126), Reyes (.120), Janssen (.143), Loup (.110) and Lind (.092). I'm giving honorable mention to Happ....he did a great job today.
Suckage? Mastroianni (-.260, on that terrible bunt and the 9th inning strikeout), Gose (-.108 for the failed bunt), Rasmus (-.122 for an 0 for 3). Kawasaki also had the number, -.117, but some of that came on the single that was called an out, so I'm not giving him one.
Source: FanGraphs We had 1225 comments in the GameThread, pretty good for a weekday day game. T-Ball Gritted out the win. Great job.
When Melky Cabrera was signed it was hard to know exactly what to expect given his PED use, but in 2014 he is proving to come as advertised.
591 days ago the Toronto Blue Jays signed Melky Cabrera to a two-year $16 million dollar contract, and it was difficult to know how to react.
Cabrera had just hit .346/.390/.516 for the Giants in a difficult park and put up a WAR number of 4.4 in only 113 games and was just 28, making him seem an absolute bargain at that price, especially with such a reasonable term.
On the flip side, he had just been busted for using performance-enhancing drugs the previous year, which was kind of a bummer.
The deal was, and is, the largest free agent contract in the Alex Anthopoulos era and Cabrera was undoubtedly a risk. Regardless of whether one opposed signing a PED user for moral reasons or was absolutely apathetic to the issue, Cabrera's future production--presumably without PED's--was a question mark.
At this point in time the reality is we have very little idea exactly how much benefit players get from using performance-enhancing drugs. That statement is not meant to deny that there aren't gains that come with PED use, we just can't be sure of the exactly the extent of those gains. Very smart people are trying to quantify every nook and cranny of baseball, but this is a particularly complex nook that they are far from nailing down.
Mixed metaphor aside, it is fair to say that when Melky Cabrera arrived on the Jays it was very difficult to predict what exactly he was going to do. There was a rather large faction of ignoramuses that predicted that Cabrera would crash and burn, assuming that the drugs he had taken accounted for the entirety of his success.
Unfortunately, in the immediate term those folks were validated by the numbers the Toronto's new left fielder put up.
Cabrera was an unmitigated disaster in 2013, hitting .279/.322/.360 while playing the outfield in a manner that was painful to watch. To put it in musical terms--which it could be argued is entirely unnecessary--Melky's outfield defense looked the way someone playing a violin for the first time sounds. If that simile doesn't work for you, pick up a violin, give it a go, and see what happens.
When 2013 was all said and done his WAR total for the season was -0.9. Ironically, the folks who predicted that Cabrera was absolutely nothing without his PED's are probably the ones who thought he was doing OK last year based on his .279 average alone, but I digress.
It seemed that the Jays had acquired a lemon in Cabrera and it also seemed as though there was a pretty obvious reason why. And there was. The thing is that the reason for Melky's massive dip in performance was not that he was no longer juicing, but rather the fact he had a tumour in his spine.
Fun fact: Team doctors hypothesized that the tumour actually grew in size during the year.
As far as excuses for poor performance as a professional athlete go, that's a pretty good one.
When 2014 rolled around once again it was difficult to know what the Jays were going to get from Cabrera. Quantifying how much a man's ability to play professional baseball is diminished by a spinal tumour is even more difficult than determining how much it could be enhanced by steroids.
The idea of a guy who might hit something like .346/.390/.516 like Cabrera had done only a couple years before was long gone in the eyes of most fans. That idea should never have existed. Melky's 2012 line was inflated by a .379 BABIP number and was always going to almost impossible to repeat.
A much more realistic idea of what Cabrera might produce was his 2011 output. It is easy to forget that Cabrera broke out first with the Royals before he had his insane run with the Giants. For the more reasonable fan, I think that was the target for Melky all along, and in his second year with the Jays he's nailing it. The table below shows Cabrera's numbers in 2011 compared to this season.
Year
BB%
K%
ISO
BABIP
AVG
OBP
SLG
2011
5.0%
13.3%
.164
.332
.305
.339
.470
2014
6.3%
12.0%
.170
.319
.301
.346
.472
Cabrera has been a tiny bit better in a couple areas in 2014, but by and large you can't ask for a pair of lines more identical than those.
It's taken us a little bit of time and a scary tumour to get to this point, but right now Melky Cabrera is who we thought he was.
I would imagine, barring injury tonight, or something else unforeseen, that Rob Rasmussen well be heading back to Buffalo. I wondered if they would be bringing Erik Kratz up, with the Jays facing lefties so often over the next few days.
Of course, there is always the chance that Jeff Francoeur will be signed soon too.
A tag that was and a force play that wasn't cost the A's a run on Thursday, and there was nothing they could do about it.
The Athletics and Blue Jays played a game of woulda, coulda, shoulda in the second inning on Thursday night in Oakland, thanks to an overturned call via instant replay. The Athletics are playing the game under protest as a result.
Toronto had the bases loaded with one out in the second inning of a scoreless game, when Anthony Gose grounded to Nate Freiman at first base. Freiman swiped a tag at runner Munenori Kawasaki, who was on his way to second base, but first base umpire Vic Carapazza said there was no tag.
Freiman threw home immediately after the tag to apparently get Edwin Encarnacion on a force play.
Blue Jays manager John Gibbons challenged the play, arguing that his own player Kawasaki was tagged and was actually out. Upon instant replay, the umpires agreed, and Kawasaki was ruled out. But that removed the force play at the plate, and since catcher Stephen Vogt didn't tag Encarnacion — even though Vogt had more than enough time to do so (he just didn't think he had to) — the Blue Jays were awarded a run, and a 1-0 lead.
Good weird, in that the A’s managed to pull a win out of it. Bad weird, in that I have no idea what the hell got into baseball for the first few innings. Baseball is almost always weird, but baseball just decided to abandon all sensibility, rationality, and perspective for a half-hour or so. If Brian McCann was involved in this game, he would’ve punched the concept of baseball in the face.
The game was atypical, is what I’m trying to get at here.
The weirdness started after an uneventful first inning. Sonny Gray got himself into a bit of a jam after a single, double, and walk loaded the bases. And then, Anthony Gose grounded the first pitch he saw to 1B Nate Freiman, and all hell broke loose.
Okay, here goes: Freiman was positioned perfectly to tag Munenori Kawasaki as he ran from 1st to 2nd, and he got the tag down, but the umpire blew it and said that Freiman missed the tag. Since the double play was dead (or so he thought), Nate threw home to try to prevent a run from scoring. Vogt caught it, and stepped on home plate to force Edwin Encarnacion out.
Then the Blue Jays challenged the play… saying that their own runner, Kawasaki was out by Nate Freiman’s tag. You don’t typically see managers trying to challenge their own players out, but if Kawasaki was actually out, that means that Vogt couldn’t force the runner out at home plate. And the call was overturned, Kawasaki was out between 1st and 2nd, and the run scored since Vogt didn’t get the tag down.
Of course, the umpire had signaled that Freiman had missed the tag while the play was occurring so Vogt made exactly the right play with the information he had. Essentially, the A’s were getting penalized a run for an umpire screw up. That didn’t sit well with the A’s, and BoMel decided to play the game under protest.
(This doesn’t really matter anymore, but in case you’re curious: playing a game under protest means that if the MLB decides that the umpires violated a rule and it cost the A’s a game, the game is to be replayed from that point. Meaning that if the A’s had lost by one run, we could have seen the first replayed game since 1986.)
Okay, did you get all that? I didn’t either. It was honestly one of the most confusing sequences I’ve ever had the pleasure to see. Straight chaos, ten minutes of people standing around the field and yelling at each other, no one knows exactly what the right call is or how it should be enforced… it was weird. Not even fun weird, just… weird.
Interesting note: this entire sequence of events is on video at MLB.com. The title and description? "Blue Jays Challenge Call: Blue Jays challenge a play at first base in the 2nd, and after review, the call is overturned, plating a run for the Blue Jays." Thanks, MLB.com. Great description, just about covers it. Nice job.
The game got more normal from then on. R.A. Dickey conceded a walk to Moss, a double to Vogt, and a bloopy double to Freiman to plate a run. A wild pitch let Vogt score from third, because knuckleballers are fun.
There really wasn’t a lot of action from that point out, mostly because Gray was excellent. His line says 7IP 1ER, but you can probably ignore that run for obvious reasons. For all intents and purposes, it was seven shutout innings from a pitcher that was scuffling some. An excellent sign — the strikeouts were there, the ground balls were everywhere, the curveball snapped, the fastball sizzled. It was impressive. There were three walks, but two of them were of the "fouling off several thousand strikes until he’s walked on a borderline pitch" variety, which I can’t really fault him for.
Otero pitched a clean 8th inning, but only with the help of the TOOTBLANiest of TOOTBLANs. Not a great throw by Moss, but Freiman impressed with the tag.
R.A. Dickey was just as effective, until the Blue Jays manager decided to put him out there for 130 pitches, just for the lulz presumably. The A’s would score twice more on a Gentry single, Jaso double, Kawasaki throwing error, and a sac fly from Callaspo.
And Doolittle came in, and shut the door. The fastball was high and fast, and he looked just like "perfect unhittable Doolittle" we had come to know and love before the Rajai Davis ruined our collective weeks. And that was that.
And the Giants lost today, too. Today was a good day. A weird day, but a good day.
So that was the strangest thing thing I've seen. In the top of the second, . Blue Jays had the bases loaded, Gose grounds out to first, the first baseman, Nate Frieman, tags the runner leaving first (Kawasaki), the ump misses the tag, so Nate throws home getting the force at home.
Gibby argues the call....must be the first challenge ever saying "my guy was out". The call at first is changed, taking off the force at home. Retroactively, Edwin scores. If the catcher knew the force was off, he might have been able to make the tag. Watching it a few times, i doubt he could have made the tag. But, if the first baseman got the call he could have easily stepped on first to get the double play.
The A's really got screwed, if the ump yells out, when he should have, the play would have been totally different. I really don't understand how he missed it. And I barely understand how we got a run out of it.
And the A's played the rest of the game under protest. I would have been curious to see if their protest would have been upheld, but since they won, it doesn't matte.r
That may be the weirdest play I've ever seen.
R.A. Dickey may have been affected by the length of the inning. He gave up two runs in the bottom of the inning. Course, Edwin Encarnacion misplaying a ball hit to left cost him that inning. Dickey walked the first batter, got a line out to right and then Stephen Vogt hit a ball over Edwin, that any real left fielder would have caught, that went for a double. Another double, on a ball that Anthony Gose should have caught, scored 1 and a passed ball scored the second run.
And again, we left Dickey in too long. He pitched 7 very good innings. Then he went out for the 8th and gave up two runs that can't be blamed on fielding.
We had some crappy baseball. Edwin's misadventure. Gose taking a bad route on an catchable ball. Munenore went back on a popup and missed it....in fairness to him, the outfield should have called him off. Thole got caught too far off first base, in the 8th, on a line drive to right and was doubled off.
Our offense didn't do much, other than the gift run. We only had 5 hits on the day. Sonny Gray was good, maybe not as good as we made him look. Juan Francisco looked particularly bad against Gray.
No Jays of the Day, Gibby deserves points for getting us a run in a very imaginative way, but then he left Dickey out too long.
Suckage goes to Reyes (-.273 on an 0 for 4), Edwin (-.134, 1 for 4....he did hit a ball to deep left that would have been a home run in any other ballpark) and Francisco (-.119, 0 for 3, two strikeouts, one swinging at a ball in the dirt).
We had 1256 comments, pretty good for a late night game. Strik3r gets the win, good job. Though there my be a review that gives the win to someone else.
It's not every Independence Day that the A's get to play a team from Canada.
Normally, baseball on July 4th is the American tradition that out-traditions all American traditions. You have two American teams playing America's pastime, fans drinking Budweiser (an American beer), chowing down dogs, firing up the pre-game grill, and enjoying the day in the sun. You have pregame festivities featuring members of the armed forces and typically a stirring rendition of the American national anthem. The teams come out clad in special red, white, and blue hats to celebrate America. America!
This July 4th, though, it will be even more special for our boys in green and gold. Because they will not just represent the fine citizens of Athletics Nation, but the citizens of the U.S. of A against invaders from the Great White North. Yes, Major League Baseball has saved its best and brightest, your Oakland Athletics, to represent America against the scourge of Canada on our Independence Day. The stakes could not be higher.
The shame of losing to those sniveling queen-worshipers on the day that we declared independence from the British could never be lived down. We gained our independence and never looked back. They still have British queens on their currency!
Yes, we will let you Canadians play (although thankfully we got rid of one Canadian team and moved it to our nation's capitol). Americans are nothing if not inclusive and magnanimous. We are happy to export our fine sports to nations like Canada who can't play hockey in the summertime. But we will not let you win. Not on this day.
I will be there today to cheer on this country and America's pastime. If Major League Baseball commits the sacrilege of playing the Canadian anthem on July 4th (the way this P.C. namby pamby society is going I wouldn't put it past 'em) I will boo. Loudly. Not because I hate Canada. But Canada is not America, dammit, and July 4th is about America! Why should I have to put up with that crap?
Oh, and if there are Blue Jays fans in the crowd, we will show them a fine time as guests of our fair nation. However if they abuse our hospitality, thundering cheers of U-S-A! U-S-A! will rain down on their meek cheering sections.
This game is our World Cup, more than the actual World Cup, because America never has been about soccer. We have to let the other countries fight over something, so they can have that. Sure, we'll send a few guys around the world to kick some ass in a game we didn't invent, just to keep those Euros in line. But you and I know that we intentionally send our best athletes to baseball, basketball and football. American sports. Because who cares about that other stuff?
A's fans, players, coaches: We have a special assignment today. While fans of other teams will be relaxing and enjoying their July 4th, we will be busy defending the honor of an entire nation. Are we up to the task? No pressure or anything.
After the mess of last night's game, the Blue Jays don't have to wait long to get a chance at redemption as today's game gets underway at 4:00pm EST. Lefty Tommy Milone gets the ball for Oakland against rookie Marcus Stroman in the Independence Day matinee. Milone is a 27-year-old Californian who didn't get any serious action in the major leagues until 2012, meaning he's still in his pre-arbitration years. He came over from the Washington Nationals in the Gio Gonzalez trade and has held his own on the West Coast. He has no eye-popping peripherals, but he's gotten the job done well enough for three straight seasons.
As mentioned in our "View from the other side", Milone is pretty much the usual soft-tossing lefty with great command and a good changeup. His fastball sits about 88 mph as well as possessing heaters of the sinker and cutter variety. There's also a curveball thrown in there every once in a while, which is used a lot of the time as a first pitch to left-handed hitters. Assuming the Blue Jays stack their lineup with right-handed hitters though, there's going to be a lot of fastballs and changeups this afternoon. You can see that the change closely resembles his sinker in terms of movement:
Every day, week, month, and year in baseball, we can see something happen that doesn't happen often (or, in some cases, ever). I'm here to chronicle as many of these oddities as I can.
Note: z-scores are not park-adjusted. Park factors are hard. :(
Welcome to the third edition of The Weekly Walk, in which I look at the kooky goings-on of Major League Baseball. You can find the first and second editions of this series here and here, respectively. Today, we'll scrutinize the BABIP outputs of three hitters, each of whom could achieve something uncommon in that area.
For now, we'll focus on 2014, which beautifully epitomizes this three-year run. In the current season, Encarnacion has attained the aforementioned 166 wRC+, even though his BABIP has remained in replacement-level territory — .269, to be exact. To keep things fair, we'll translate that number to a z-score, which will make it era-neutral. His BABIP for the 2014 season translates to a z-score of -1.14.
Round numbers are nice, so we'll use those as our thresholds. Since 1920, how many qualified players have surpassed both a 150 wRC+ and a -1 BABIP z-score? A mere 27:
(I also included walk rate and ISO, the areas from which these men derived most of their hitting prowess.)
The two most recent seasons belong to Encarnacion and his partner in crime, Jose Bautista (whom I'll cover next week). A few of the other names on the list turn some heads as well; presumably, Encarnacion has no problem with sharing something with Bonds and McGwire (unless that something is, well, youknow...).
All told, this doesn't say much about Encarnacion. He should maintain this pace, though, as ZiPS's Update projections predict he'll end the year with a 159 wRC+ and a .270 BABIP. Nor, for that matter, should he care about the opprobrious latter figure — so long as he keeps walking the parrot, it'll be smooth sailing.
Part II: Neither Woeful Nor Skillful (i.e., The Opposite Of That First Thing)
Our second adventure takes place in the Peach State, where a third baseman has struggled in spite of great luck on balls in play. In 2013, the Atlanta Braves acquired Chris Johnson in the Justin Upton trade, following a few middling seasons in Phoenix and Houston. He had played blandly for a few seasons, and many fans wondered if he'd ever realize his potential. Then came 2013, which brought a 127 wRC+, ranking 38th in baseball. He...hasn't continued to mash in 2014; his wRC+ has deflated to 87, 37th-worst in baseball.
What's changed for Johnson? Declines in free passes (2.4% BB%, down from 5.3% last year) and clout (.081 ISO, as opposed to .139 in 2013), coupled with more whiffs (24.6% K%, up from 21.2% the year prior), have created this miserable hitter. Nevertheless, one thing has remained static for Johnson, both this year and for his career: BABIP. His .371 mark in 2014 mirrors his .363 mark in the show as a whole; the latter number ranks 12th-highest ever.
Othershavenoticedthis, as they tend to do. Although one could take an analytic angle to this observation, I'm more of a "look stuff up" kind of guy. Hence, I ask: How common is this? When, in major league history (since 1920), has a batter had so many hits on balls in play, but nothing else?
Let's look at the z-scores. Johnson's BABIP mark for 2014 is 1.96, a moderately astounding figure by itself. When paired with that 87 wRC+, though, it takes on a whole new life, as only nine other seasons have featured a BABIP z-score above 1.5 and a below-average wRC+. Take a look:
(Again, I also included walk rate and ISO, the areas from which these men derived most of their lack of hitting prowess.)
That Johnson will only be the tenth player to do this — and if we believe ZiPS, which foresees him finishing the year with a .361 BABIP and a 93 wRC+, he will do it — brings a brief glimmer of happiness to Braves fans who wanted more from the hot corner. That he'll still play rather abysmally overall (ZiPS has him at 0.9 WAR come season's end) blots out this positivity.
Last, we enter Charm City, where another first baseman hasn't accrued many hits, despite peripherals that would suggest otherwise. In 2011, the Baltimore Orioles acquired Chris Davis in the Koji Uehara trade, following a few middling seasons in Arlington. He still played blandly for another season, and many fans wondered if he'd ever realize his potential. Then came 2013, which brought a 167 wRC+, ranking third in baseball. Like Johnson, he hasn't continued to mash in 2014; his wRC+ has depreciated to 98, 111th in the majors.
...going forward Davis isn't as mediocre as he's been this year...
To substantiate this claim, Moran cited Davis's ghastly .255 BABIP, considerably lower than his career mark of .327, and his xBABIP of .344. The latter figure would imply the presence of solid contact, which Davis provides in spades: He currently sports a 26.1% line drive rate, narrowly outside the top 10. Line drives go for hits more often than fly balls or ground balls, so it's weird that Davis's BABIP has yet to convalesce.
As Moran noted, it almost certainly will improve (case in point: ZiPS RoS pins it at .309 from here on out). However, for the sake of this exercise, let's say it doesn't. His .255 BABIP lies 1.56 standard deviations below the mean, while his 26.1% line drive rate lies 1.53 standard deviations above the mean. In the batted-ball era, no players — NONE — have beaten 1.5 in both arenas. Lowering our standards to one standard deviation, we find that six other players have achieved (or could achieve) this undesirable goal:
Surprisingly, Davis isn't the only 2014 name on the list; Brian Roberts, whom the Baltimore faithful despise for betraying them respect for his years of service, also occupies this heinous leaderboard. With that said, the presence of just five other names illustrates just how rare this is. Hitters that compile a lot of liners will generally compile a lot of hits too, and thus far, that hasn't been the case for Davis. His luck should turn around in the second half, but if it doesn't, he'll have a tidbit of poor fortune to show for it.
That's all I have for this week. On the one hand, I could run out of ideas for this piece pretty quickly; on the other hand...
. . .
All data courtesy of FanGraphs, as of Thursday, July 3rd, 2014.
The folks at Around The Nest don't rest, even on America Day! The weekly live podcast hosted by the Lansing Lugnuts' Jesse Goldberg-Strassler will be broadcast today at 5 pm Eastern and will feature broadcasters from up and down the Blue Jays' farm system to discuss the goings-on with their teams this past week.
This week's episode is entitled "Roemon Fields of Dreams" and the link is here.
Don't worry if you can't listen to it live, a downloadable version will be made available right after the show ends.
Today's lineup:
5:00 – Ben Wagner, Buffalo
5:10 – Tom Gauthier and Bob Lipman, New Hampshire
5:20 – Tyler Murray and Al Hernandez, Dunedin
5:30 – Trey Wilson, Lansing
5:40 – Lucas Scott, Vancouver
5:50 – Kevin Fitzgerald, Bluefield
If you have a question about a player or a team in the Blue Jays organization, ask it in the comments below and maybe you'll get an answer from the folks who watch them play every day!
In case you missed it, in last night's A's-Blue Jays game the Blue Jays had the bases loaded and one out when Anthony Gose hit a ground ball to first baseman Nate Freiman. Upon fielding the ball Freiman tagged the runner at first base, Munenori Kawasaki, but first base umpire Vic Carapazza ruled "No tag!" Freiman then threw home and catcher Stephen Vogt, having seen Carapazza's "no tag" signal, stepped on home plate for a force out (even though he could easily have tagged the runner, Edwin Encarnacion, before he reached home plate). However, upon replay review it was ruled that Freiman had in fact tagged Kawasaki -- meaning there was no force play at home plate, and so the Blue Jays were awarded a run.
Last night's play, in which a missed tag call on the bases deked Stephen Vogt into thinking there was a force play at the plate, was a bizarre version of a much more ordinary concept that is bound to surface again soon: What happens when fielders or runners, relying on an umpire's live call, act in ways they would not have acted had they known the call would be overturned by replay review?
Here is a far more mundane example. With a runner at first base a sinking line drive is hit to left field. The left fielder dives to catch it and the umpire puts his palms out: "Trap! No catch!" However the left fielder knows he caught it and the runner sees it the same way -- but also sees the umpire's call.
The left fielder has nothing to lose to jog in and tag the runner who is presumably now perched on second base. If replay overturns the call and rules it was a catch, is it now a double play? Should the runner, if he believes the play will be challenged and overturned, go back to first base even though this means he will be forced at second base if the call stands?
It makes no sense. If baseball is going to use replay, replay should be designed such that it never overturns actions that took place in direct reliance of the umpire's live call. Otherwise it puts fielders and runners in the unfair position of having to predict -- in real time, no less -- whether or not the live call they are reacting to will in fact be upheld after the play is over.
If replay is going to be used, it should be for singular events such as "On a bouncer to deep short, did the throw beat the runner to first base?" and "Did the base stealer get his foot on the bag before the tag was applied?" Whether or not the call affects future actions or decisions of the fielders or runners absolutely should be a determinant in whether or not a play is reviewable. Far more than whether the play takes place in front of, or behind, an umpire.
At least MLB came to its senses around the "transfer rule" and corrected the rule quickly. Hopefully the issues raised in last night's A's-Blue Jays game, even though they did not ultimately affect the outcome because the A's won anyway, will spur MLB to look at how fielders and runners have to rely on live calls, and MLB will take quick steps to narrow replay reviews to singular events. Not ones where a live call leads to related decisions and actions that rely on that call.
A speculative look at some prospects teams interested in Stanton might offer.
As the information leaked about the Miami Marlin's trade conversations with the Houston Astros last season about Giancarlo Stanton, my mind started to wander about just what exactly could Miami get for a player of Stanton's caliber. Superstars get traded all the time, but few are as young and as talented as Stanton when they are dealt. Let me preface this post by saying under no circumstances do I think the Miami Marlins should trade Giancarlo Stanton.
I just enjoy talking prospects (even those on other teams) and a little speculation never hurt anybody. The Marlins have been adamant that he is not on the market, and I expect that will stay the case through at least the rest of this season. He is still only 24, under club control until 2017, and one of the best power hitters in baseball. There is no reason to trade Stanton as the likelihood of contention next season is still high with the return of a healthy Jose Fernandez, another year of development for Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, a full season of Andrew Heaney, and any other upgrades they choose to make this offseason.
However, if the Marlins fall completely contention there is always the possibility that the front office entertains the idea of trading Stanton. Contenders around the MLB will be clamoring for help come the trade deadline, and Stanton is about as valuable as an asset gets. Accepting an enormous haul for him might be tempting. I have compiled a list of three teams who may be interested in acquiring Stanton, and whether or not the prospects in their system that would make the idea worth considering.
Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox would love to add Stanton to their currently punch-less outfield. Their farm system is also loaded with guys the Marlins would be interested in. A package centered on Mookie Betts, Matt Barnes,Garin Cecchini and Blake Swihart might get Miami listening. Betts would fill the second base void currently and for the long term, and Matt Barnes is a near major league ready pitcher who projects as a middle of the rotation starter. Cecchini would provide internal competition at third base for Colin Moran, and Zach Cox. Cecchini might even be good enough defensively to move Moran to first base. Swihart is an offensively talented catching prospect who would be the heir apparent to Jarrod Saltalamacchia, or at least provide options other than J.T. Realmuto, and Kyle Skipworth. Boston might be hesitant to add so many top tier prospects into a deal, but if they rolled out this offer it would be a very tempting proposal.
Toronto Blue Jays: Pairing Stanton in the outfield with Jose Bautista is a terrifying thought for the rest of the American League, but the Blue Jays salivate at the notion. Toronto is stocked with elite pitching prospects during a time when Miami would likely prefer position players. Players like Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, and Daniel Norris are top pitching prospects, but the organization does not have enough top caliber position players to offer a deal Miami would realistically consider.
Texas Rangers: The Rangers currently have a mediocre farm system with Joey Gallo, Jorge Alfaro, and Rougned Odor being the only players Miami would likely consider in any kind of Stanton deal. Odor is a low ceiling second basemen that could step into the Marlins starting lineup instantly. He is a solid defensive player and should hit for decent average with limited power. In fact, Odor is already making a small impact in the big leagues at age 20, he is currently hitting .263 in 144 plate appearances with the Rangers. Alfaro is one of the highest rated catching prospects in baseball currently, but the most interesting piece is Gallo. Gallo is a high strikeout, mammoth power hitter who could either become the next great power hitter in baseball or flame out in Triple A if he doesn't make enough contact. He is the definition of a high risk, high reward player. So far this season Gallo has hit 30 home runs between A ball and Double-A; he certainly has Stanton-esque raw power. His nine home runs in only 21 games since being called up to Double-A is already tied for the Texas League lead. This package would be overwhelming, but still not enough to pry away Stanton.
As I said before, I don't expect Miami to consider trading Stanton this season, but I would be shocked if one or more of these teams don't make them an offer involving some of the players mentioned here. The only package that would be too great to pass up is if the Red Sox decided to offer all of the prospects listed above. The quality and quantity of that package would be very impressive. Even then, sending away a superstar and fan favorite in his age 24 season would be even harder to do. What do you readers think? Is there any package of players out there you would find acceptable for Stanton? Are you mad at me for writing such a random and hypothetical post? Let us know in the comments!
Reliever Brett Cecil will return to the Blue Jays roster in time for Friday's afternoon game against the Athletics as it was expected. To make space on the 25-man roster, outfielder Anthony Gose was optioned to Buffalo, according to Sportsnet's Barry Davis.
Cecil initially suffered a groin injury on June 13 against the Orioles, but was not placed on the disabled list at the time. After feeling pain in an attempt to pitch on June 18, the Blue Jays decided to place the 2013 All-Star on the 15-day disabled list. He did not remain inactive for too long, making two rehab appearances in relief for the triple-A Buffalo Bisons. In two innings he gave up a solo shot, a single, and walked none.
Unfortunately the solo shot he gave up happened to be a game-tying one against the Syracuse Chiefs, leading to another extra-inning game for the Bisons. Sitting behind the plate for that game, my non-expert eyes saw nothing out of the ordinary for Cecil. He threw mostly fastballs, which hung around 93 mph (according to the stadium gun); it was an 88 mph cutter to Tyler Moore that was launched out of the park.
The return of Cecil will give the Blue Jays a seven-man bullpen again. It's not like the Jays have needed to use their bullpen all that much lately: Sergio Santos hasn't pitched since Sunday, Chad Jenkins hasn't been on a mound since last Thursday, and Todd Redmond has been sitting since last Wednesday.
As the Blue Jays are set to face several southpaws in this series, left-handed outfielder Anthony Gose is the odd man out, which is still a bit surprising given the fact that Colby Rasmus's status is still day-to-day with a wrist injury. If Rasmus still cannot play over the weekend, or if Jose Bautista is unable to return to the field soon, we will have to get used to seeing Brad Glenn and Darin Mastroianni's names on the starting card.
Toronto is looking for second and third base help in the wake of Brett Lawrie's injury, and has been relying on Juan Francisco and Munenori Kawasaki in those spots over the last few weeks. As they currently sit tied for first place in the AL East, the Jays are expected to be aggressive at the trade deadline, especially in regards to infielders.
A deal for Hill would represent a reunion between the two sides; the 32-year old spent the first 6.5 seasons of his major league career in Toronto before being dealt to Arizona in 2011. Hill has struggled a bit at the plate this season, hitting only .248 with 6 HR and 42 RBI in 82 games, but could intrigue the Jays due to their familiarity with what he brings to the table.
Prado, 30, has hit .268 with 3 HR and 34 RBI to start his second season in Arizona. The former All-Star is primarily a third baseman who would supply an immediate upgrade for the Jays, and seems like an ideal trade candidate for the D-Backs, who are planning on being aggressive sellers.
If the D-Backs were to unload either Hill or Prado in a deal, they would likely have to send some cash along because both players are under team control through the 2016 season. Hill is owed more than $29M over that span, while Prado's deal calls for him to be paid over $27M in the next 2.5 seasons.
I hate that Casey Janssen didn't pitch. There is no excuse to lose in extra innings with your best pitcher sitting in the pen. Or, well maybe there is an excuse we don't know about, perhaps he's sore or something. But if he isn't hurting, he should have pitched.
Anyway, Marcus Stroman was terrific, again. 7 innings, 3 hits, 3 walks and 7 strikeouts. He was just great.
In the 12th, Jenkins gave up a lead off walk and should have been pulled. Then he got an out on a line out to fairly deep center and should have been pulled. Then Nick Punto sliced one down the left field line. Melky Cabrera ran off to cut if off, and he had to cut it off, but missed it and that was the game.
On offense, we managed 8 singles and a double, and 2 walks, and really didn't come close to scoring. Our great offense is still missing. I'm not sure where it has gone. Maybe Brazil, to watch the World Cup, but we have to get scoring again and soon.
Jays of the Day are Stroman (.421 WPA), McGowan (.126) and Loup (.100). Tolleson (.101 for a 2 for 4 day).
Suckage? Well the whole offense, minus Tolleson deserves it. Reyes (-.232), Melky (-.164 and the mistake in left), Bautista (-.117), Edwin (-.096, he did take two walks), Navarro (-.121), Glenn (-.154) and Mastroianni (-.135, though he singled in the 12th, we just didn't score him). Also Jenkins (-.122, but Gibby should have pulled him).
Let's get them tomorrow.
We had 1907 comments, pretty good for a Friday afternoon game. I led the way (first time in a long time). Great job me. Take a raise out of petty change.
Today's headline is probably the saddest one I've had to write in my time here at Bluebird Banter. If you're not aware, Aaron Hill is my favourite Blue Jays player off all time and is a big reason why I'm such a big fan today. When news came along that Toronto was in Arizona scouting the Diamondbacks infielders Martin Prado and the aforementioned Hill, I obviously got pretty excited. I don't have any connection at all to Prado, but Hill coming back to Toronto would be an amazing homecoming that would the cherry on top to this great season. After looking around at the numbers on FanGraphs though, I came to a saddening realization. The Blue Jays will (and rightfully so) try to get Martin Prado before they attempt to acquire Hill. Unfortunately I didn't get to writing this before Jon Morosi said the exact same thing:
Blue Jays appear to be targeting Martin Prado over Aaron Hill, preferring his positional flexibility (starts at 3B/2B/LF/SS/1B since '12).
When you look at it objectively, there's about three points in favour of trading for Prado and the singular one in Hill's direction may be that he has already had success in Toronto and played under skipper John Gibbons from Hill's memorable debut in 2005 to Gibbons's firing in 2008.
As the tweet notes, Prado is as flexible as they came for infielders compared to the permanent second baseman in Hill. In the past season and a half, Prado has played at 3B (192 games), 2B (36 games), LF (30 games), and SS (1 game). By all reports, Prado is an adequate defender although he's better at third base and left field than second base, which might open up talk of Brett Lawrie moving back to the '4' spot if this trade were to happen.
On the business side of the comparison, Morosi once again states the obvious:
Aaron Hill ($24MM) and Martin Prado ($22MM) have substantial money due after this year, which has influenced their marketplace.
Although it's not a huge difference, Prado is owed $11 million in both 2015 and 2016 as well as the remainder of his $11 million salary this season. For Hill, each of the next two seasons see him owed $12 million as well as the rest of his $11 million salary this year. For a team like the Blue Jays that is still considered by many to be almost busting through their payroll ceiling, this difference likely comes into play as well when Alex Anthopoulos decides to pick up the phone to talk to Kevin Towers and the Diamondbacks.
A third point in Prado's favour is the fact that he is only 30-years-old (he turns 31 in October), while Hill turned 32 in March. Considering that both players are locked up through 2016, the age difference will likely be a factor as well when deciding which infielder the Blue Jays want to acquire. Neither player has much of an injury history though, other than a fractured left hand for Hill last season.
In terms of actual performance on the field, the players are quite similar with equally big seasons coming in 2012 that landed them MVP votes as well as solid 2013 campaigns that amassed about 2 fWAR each (Hill did it in nearly half as many games). This year has seen both players take a step back thanks to some out of the ordinary strikeout numbers.
For comparison's sake, here's Hill:
Up against Prado:
Unfortunately for Aaron Hill fans it seems that Martin Prado is quite clearly the more attractive option for the Blue Jays and assuming that Alex Anthopoulos has his pick of the two infielders, it is the Venezuelan that he will choose. Obviously the asking price for the two players will be different, but with the general manager on the other end of the phone being Kevin Towers, it's a certainty that he will require a lot of #grit in return.
