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MLB roundup: Adam Lind lands on DL with broken foot after mom orders MRI

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Lind played for three weeks before doctors discovered he had a broken foot.

The Blue Jays placed first baseman Adam Lind on the 15-day disabled list on Wednesday after an MRI advised by his mother revealed a fracture in his right foot, according to Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star.

Lind suffered the injury while the Jays were in Baltimore in mid-June, per Griffin, but X-rays did not reveal a break. He was back in the lineup five days later, but the pain persisted, eventually resulting in his mom suggesting the MRI. Lind remained in action through Monday, meaning he played three weeks with the broken bone. During that stretch, Lind hit .286/.318/.429, pretty respectable numbers considering the circumstances.

Lind, who is hitting .320/.389/.489 on the season, joins All-Star slugger Edwin Encarnacion on the DL as Toronto's injury woes continue. The Jays have lost 18 of their last 27 games to fall out of first place in the American League East, but still remain only 2½ games behind the Orioles.

Springer makes terrific catch

Astros rookie outfielder George Springer has wowed people with his powerful bat on multiple early in his career. That continued against the Rangers on Wednesday, when he hit his 19th home run of the season. But perhaps more impressive was when Springer flashed some serious leather in the third inning:

Also in that game, Robbie Grossman had four hits and was a triple shy of the cycle through seven innings. That prompted an unintentionally humorous tweet from Rangers beat writer Evan Grant. Find the hidden words:

Wednesday scores

Tigers 4, Dodgers 1
Rockies 6, Padres 3
Angels 8, Blue Jays 7
Diamondbacks 4, Marlins 3
Nationals 6, Orioles 2
Mets 4, Braves 1
Reds 4, Cubs 1
Red Sox 5, White Sox 4
Phillies 4, Brewers 1
Yankees 5, Indians 4 (14)
Royals 5, Rays 4
Astros 8, Rangers 4
Cardinals 5, Pirates 2
Twins 8, Mariners 1
Giants 5, Athletics 2


After 14 Years, Dustin McGowan Has Finally Found His Role

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Back in June of the year 2000 at a time when Britney Spears was releasing her second album, the Blue Jays drafted a right-hander out of high school in Georgia with the #33 pick. Young Dustin McGowan was considered an electric arm who would tear up the lower minor leagues before bursting onto the big league scene. Unfortunately for the 6'3" righty, arm and shoulder troubles would catch up to him before he could make any sort of big impact at the highest level and years upon years of his career would be lost to constant rehabbing and injury set backs.

McGowan finally returned to the Blue Jays last season and was pretty dang good out of the bullpen in 25 appearances. That was considered a warm up for this season where he competed for and won a rotation job with Toronto, which happened to be a Home Opener start. As someone who was at the game, I don't think that start was as 'feel good' as it was supposed to be. Seven more starts came after that and although there were some bright spots, it was largely a disappointing return to the big league rotation for McGowan. It turned out that his arm couldn't handle the heavy workload after so many surgeries:

The Jays were left no choice but to shift McGowan to the bullpen and hope he earned his $1.5 million salary this season. Since his first appearance out of the bullpen on May 18th, the righty has appeared in 20 games and posted zeroes on the board in 17 of them. That adds up to a 1.71 ERA and a 20.5 K%, although he does have a BABIP of .185 so there's a possibility that this is a bubble waiting to burst.

His stuff has come back in a big way, reminding us of the vintage McGowan that SBN's own John Sickels described for ESPN back in 2004:

McGowan's best pitch is his fastball, a 95-mph sinker. The pitch has good movement, and can be quite overpowering. His secondary offerings include a curveball, a slider, and a changeup. All three are solid most of the time, occasionally excellent. He's been much more consistent with them over the last year.

Although all of McGowan's work this offseason on his curveball hasn't seemed to work out (he's only thrown it 15 times this year), his fastball, slider, and changeup have all returned to top form. What's especially amazing is that the 95 mph fastball Sickels described is miraculously back to his pre-surgery velocity after years of iffy radar readings on the pitch:

Brooksbaseball-chart__13__medium

In fact, this month has seen McGowan hit high-90's consistently with his fastballs, which is amazing considering all that his right arm and shoulder has been through. It's safe to say that the move to the bullpen did nothing but good things for the velocity:

Brooksbaseball-chart__14__medium

Although McGowan has largely ditched his sinker since his placement in the bullpen, his fastball-slider combination has been dominant and hitters are having a ton of trouble making solid contact. Since the switch, his filthy slider has a whiff/swing rate of 43.33% reminding Blue Jays fans of the potential he flashed nearly a decade ago.

Looking forward, McGowan should be used by John Gibbons as a dependable setup man alongside Aaron Loup depending on the handedness of the upcoming hitters. Looking even farther into the future, McGowan has a $4 million option for 2015 that was tacked on to the $3 million extension that he signed with the Blue Jays before the 2013 season. Assuming McGowan continues pitching so well out of the bullpen, the option should certainly picked up and with Casey Janssen likely leaving as a free agent after this season, the 2015 closer position could be an open competition between a number of remaining pitchers in the bullpen.

All that matters for 2014 though is that McGowan continues to wheel and deal out of the bullpen, repaying the Blue Jays for their extreme patience through all of the injury troubles of the last decade. At a time when there isn't a lot to feel good about with the Blue Jays, this story definitely makes you feel like the baseball gods don't completely hate Canada.

The Rays Tank: Grand Slammer from Kiermaier

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The Rays lost in disappointing fashion last night courtesy of the bullpen and a rough ninth inning, but Kevin Kiermaier kept his darling rookie status alive with a grand slam:

It was Kiermaier's first in his career, and the first for the Rays in over a year.

Despite the excitement, the late-game loss dampered the glory,

"Feels good. But at the end of the day, that was a tough ninth inning and it just puts a damper on everything. It's not about me, it's about the team. I felt good in the batter's box tonight. But at the same time, they put more runs up than us tonight and that was a tough way to lose it there in the ninth."

***

Yunel Escobar completed his two-game rehab stint with the Stone Crabs yesterday, and is due back in the Rays lineup against the Blue Jays on Friday.

On the topic of injuries, David DeJesus, Wil Myers and Jerry Sands will all have follow-up exams on Friday as well, to determine when they'll make their return to the Rays.

That being said, the outfield looks to be a wee bit crowded when those guys come back...

Who goes, in the "OF logjam"? (Thanks for that one, Erik.)

Links:

- The Red Sox ditched A.J. Pierzynski, and proceeded to bash him after doing so. He doesn't have a reputation for being the nicest dude, but still - stay classy, Boston.

- The Hardball Times got a shoutout on the YES broadcast of the Rays-Yankees game last weekend, so 1. Congrats, guys, Shane Tourtellotte in particular, and 2. Due to this, THT revisited the "hangover effect" piece referenced on air. Give it a read.

- Beyond the Box Score took a look at the ERA-FIP differential for starting pitchers after the first half, seeing who has performed better or worse than their ERA indicated.

Cubs Minor League Wrap: July 10

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Only Kane County won today.

Iowa Cubs

The Iowa Cubs were drenched by the Omaha Storm Chasers (Royals), 7-1.

Carlos Pimentel started and took the loss. Pimentel pitched 5.2 innings and allowed four runs on six hits. He walked four and struck out two.

Arodys Vizcaino is really struggling in Triple-A. Tonight he gave up three more runs on four hits, including a home run, in only 1.2 innings. Vizcaino has allowed three runs in each of this last three appearances.

Jasvir Rakkar has struggled with Daytona and Boise this season, but in his Triple-A debut, he threw a perfect inning in the bottom of the eighth, striking out one.

Iowa's only run came on a solo home run by Kris Bryant in the seventh inning. It was Bryant's ninth home run for Iowa and 31st on the season. Bryant was 1 for 3 with a walk.

Catcher Rafael Lopez was 4 for 4.

Tennessee Smokies

The Tennessee Smokies were blinded by the Jacksonville Suns (Marlins), 6-5.

Starting pitcher Matt Loosen had trouble finding the plate tonight. Loosen allowed four runs on three hits over three innings, but the real crisis was that he walked six and hit a batter. Loosen struck out two.

The Smokies fought back from the 4-0 deficit and tied the game 4-4 in the seventh inning. But Hunter Cervenka allowed two runs in the top of the ninth to take the loss. Cervenka allowed two runs on two hits over 1.2 innings. Cervenka walked three, hit a batter and struck out two.

The Smokies were down two runs with two out and no one on in the bottom of the ninth, but two walks and two singles later they had one run and the bases-loaded. But catcher Luis Flores struck out to end the game.

Right fielderJorge Soler hit his third home run in the past four games when he clobbered a solo blast to dead center to lead off the sixth inning. Soler was 2 for 4 with a walk.

Shortstop Addison Russell got his first Cubs and Smokies hit when he singled in the seventh inning. He also singled in the ninth and went 2 for 5 and the day.

First baseman Dustin Geiger was 2 for 4 with a double.

Daytona Cubs

The Daytona Cubs were done in by the Dunedin Blue Jays, 7-4.

Starter Nathan Dorriskept the Blue Jays off the board for three innings. Unfortunately, he pitched the fourth inning too and he got rocked for five runs in that inning. Dorris pitched four innings and allowed five runs on eighth hits. He struck out three and walked three.

Dorris had not allowed a run in 18 innings before getting rocked in the fourth.

Shortstop Marco Hernandez was 3 for 5 with a double. Left fielder Bijan Rademacher was 2 for 4 with two doubles and two RBI.

Kane County Cougars

The Kane County Cougars were quicker on the draw than the Quad Cities River Bandits (Astros), 9-5.

Juan Paniagua started and got the win. He allowed two runs on six hits over 5.2 innings. Both runs scored in the sixth inning after he exited the game and reliever Michael Wagner allowed both runs to score. Paniagua struck out five and walked three.

Third baseman Jeimer Candelario had a huge game tonight, going 3 for 4 with two doubles and a home run. The home run came with the bases empty in the seventh inning and was his sixth on the season and first for Kane County. Candelario had four RBI.

Left fielder Kevin Brown also hit a solo home run in the fourth inning, his second for Kane County and third overall. Brown went 1 for 4.

Second baseman Ben Carhart was 3 for 5 with three runs batted in and one run scored. Shortstop Carlos Penalver was 2 for 3 with a walk and two runs scored.

Center fielder Jacob Hannemann picked up where he left off after his suspension, going 2 for 5 with a double. He scored one run and drove one in. Hannemann has had two or more hits in six of the last seven games he has played.

Boise Hawks

The Boise Hawks got stomped on by the Hillsboro Hops (Diamondbacks), 9-3.

Starter Trevor Clifton allowed two runs on eight hits over 4.2 innings. He struck out three and walked two.

Josh Davis relieved Clifton with the bases-loaded and two outs in the fifth and got out of the jam with a strikeout. But then he got into major trouble in the sixth inning, giving up four runs on five hits and only retiring one batter in that inning. It was Davis' first loss of the season.

Right fielder Jeffrey Baez was 2 for 4 with a walk and a run batted in. First baseman Alex Tomasovich was 2 for 4 with a double and a run scored.

Catcher Mark Zagunis went 2 for 4 with a walk.

AZL Cubs

Off day.

Around The Nest: Blue Jays Minor League Podcast - Week 15

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Special guest this week: Chris King of Baseball Prospectus!

The major league Toronto Blue Jays were horrible this past week, but exciting things happened in their minor league system since last Friday, and you will be able to hear about it today at 5 pm if you tune in to the weekly Around The Nest podcast. Around The Nest is hosted by the Lansing Lugnuts' Jesse Goldberg-Strassler, and Jesse goes up and down the Blue Jays organization to chat with the radio broadcasters of each level. These broadcasters watch every game and so can give fantastic insight about how various prospects are doing.

You can listen to the show live here at 5 pm Eastern, or download the archive version following the broadcast using the same link.

In case you missed it, here is last week's show--it includes a great interview with Sal Fasano about catching development in the Blue Jays system:

We at Bluebird Banter have partnered with Around The Nest to allow you to ask the broadcasters questions you have about various players and teams. Simply put your questions in the comments below and Jesse will ask as many as he can on the air.

Leading off this week's show will be special guest Chris King (@StatsKing on Twitter), a Baseball Prospectus scout who lives in Florida, covering both the A-advanced Florida State League and the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League. This past week, Chris saw the professional debut of 2014 first round draft pick Max Pentecost, rehab appearances from Roberto Osuna and Mickey Storey, as well as two innings of Sean Reid-Foley (2014 second round pick). I am eager to hear him talk about how they all looked.

My first question of the week is for Chris: After going 0-for-3 in his pro debut, Max Pentecost went 5-for-5 the next day with two doubles--were all five hits hit hard? Did the pitchers make mistakes or did Pentecost hit some difficult pitches? Also, what happened with the caught stealing I see on the box score?

Batting second will be Kevin Fitzgerald from the other Rookie-level team, the Bluefield Blue Jays. It seems that Richard Urena is doing well while Rowdy Tellez is struggling. Matt Smoral had two appearances this week: in his Friday start, he was cruising through the first two innings before struggling through the third and fourth innings, and he looked to have a good game on Wednesday when he pitched innings four through seven.

My other question of the week is for Kevin: What went wrong during the two innings of struggles for Smoral? What was going right during the other six innings he pitched this week?

Moving on up, the three-hitter this week will be either Rob Fai or Lucas Scott from the short-season-A Vancouver Canadians. Batting cleanup, Trey Wilson will join Jesse to talk about the single-A Lansing Lugnuts, and in the five-hole will be Tyler Murray or Al Hernandez of the A-advanced Dunedin Blue Jays. Rounding up the lineup will be Tom Gauthier or Bob Lipman from the double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats, and triple-A Buffalo Bisons' Ben Wagner.

Don't worry Ben, even though you are batting last you won't be asked to sacrifice bunt; however, I would like ask you about how Cory Aldridge has been welcomed to Buffalo. His Twitter photos page shows that he is a man who loves food--has anyone taken him to Anchor Bar or Dinosaur BBQ yet?

Enough of my questions... what are yours?

Phillies trade targets - part too!

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This is an expanding piece looking at players the Phillies might target from trade partners. It's not exhaustive, just a look at a few top players and parts who might match up.

Wednesday I covered the Angels, Dodgers, Orioles and Mariners. Today I'll look at the Blue Jays, Yankees, Royals and Tigers. The theme of today's post might be slim pickings. Of course, other rumors have started swirling in the ether, so I will do, at least, a third installment adding the Giants, Cards and anyone else that pops up between now and then with needs.

Blue Jays - I'll start by assuming that current Starter Marcus Stroman is off the table. After all trading to shore up your playoff run doesn't work as well when you jettison the guy who might be the 2nd or 3rd best starter in your rotation (especially when the other top Starters are 35+). If you're sending them Byrd or a BP arm you could look at Aaron Sanchez. A Righty with huge stuff and very little control of it. Ceiling is a good #2 Starter, but the floor is a Perci Garner or Brody Colvin mess. Word is Sanchez is off limits though. Daniel Norris is another guy to look at. He's a Lefty who improved his BB rates in High-A. That said, he's 4 starts into Double-A and his BB rate doubled, it's a small sample, but he has a history of shaky control he was starting to iron out, so it's hard to tell if this is something he'll adjust to in Double-A or if he was just getting less experienced hitters out with junk that the more advanced guys stay off. That said, a Lefty with a 96mph Fastball is not overly common.. Next comes Mitch Nay. He's a 3rd baseman drafted two years ago, he's sporting a .283/.348/.371 line with 12.9%K and 8.4% BB rates. He'd be high risk and the power is still missing. Franklin Baretto is an 18 year old Shortstop with a truck bed of tools. Currently in Low-A hitting .304/.407/.413 with 19.4% K and 11.1% BB rates. The BB rate is nearly twice his previous average, so that may or may not be for real. He's shown some pop in the past, but he'll likley end up with passable power. He's built like Rollins and looks to be a good defender with speed and good contact skills. Everything you get from the Blue Jays would be high risk. They have some nice players to package, but no one that makes you say "wow".

Royals - If you like to gamble, you could roll the dice on Kyle Zimmer. Ace ceiling to perhaps mid-rotation type, provided his shoulder doesn't give out, which has shut him down since last fall. His MRI was clean and he avoided the knife, but shoulder injuries are the grim reaper of Pitchers, so you rick that instead of a future Ace you may be trading for a guy who never throws a baseball again. Someone is bound to suggest Hunter Dozier, but especially given the struggles of Moose Tacos to hit, Dozier is probably their Third Baseman of the future now. He's already gotten to Double-A and it's. honestly, hard to find many red flags. His power isn't ideal for the hot corner at present, but he's only 22, so that could still be on the way.  The only way to get him would probably involve eating lots of salary and possibly including Franco. I don't see it.  There are a few more names you could gamble on. One would be Elier Hernandez a 19 year old playing in High-A. Lot sof tools, very inconsistent production, he's currently middling along in a typically Offense friendly environment. Another name is already with the team: Christian Colon. Colon is a solid contact hitter who will take a walk and has some speed. On the downside, his arm stinks, his range isn't very good, his power is middling and he's pretty much a 2B only guy. As John Sickels noted in his prospect book Colon gets marked down as a bust because he was a fourth overall pick, while if he was a 9th Rounder he'd probably get a lot of praise. Colon has a good glove and can stick at Second, his bat should be good enough to Start, but his floor is AAAA guy since his arm won't work on the left side. The Royals don't have pieces for a blockbuster, sans Dozier, but they have enough to grab BP help or an OF rental.

Tigers - The cupboard isn't quite bare, but there is plenty of elbow room. That said, we'd be trading them a reliver if anything, so there's enough to make that work. One name that could be bandied about is Johnathon Crawford a RHP picked in the First round last year. He's a Ground Ball pitcher with a bit of a control/command problem. His ceiling is a #3 or 4 Starter, could also be bound for the bullpen down the road. If he were to actually iron out his mechanics he could be as good as a solid #2 Starter, as his Fastball and Slider are both Plus when they're near the plate. An even better name would be 20 year old Righty Jake Thompson, who sports a Plus Fastball and enough of a repetoire that would could see him as also a #2 Starter. I like his chances better than Crawford, as he has better control. Julio Felix is a somewhat intriguing relief arm with pretty good control though not great K numbers for a BP Pitcher. Corey Knebel is a guy who both K's and Walks a ton of people, he's made his way to the bigs, but the Tigers may be willing to part with him for a more ready now piece. Of course you could also gamble on flame throwing Bruce Rondon who's shut down all year after Tommy John. He'd be a good buy low and the Tigers have an old core and are in win now mode, so he could be pried loose, I think.

Yankees - As John Stolnis noted the Yankees have needs. What they don't have is much in the way of tradeable assets. Their assets begin, and damn near end, with Gary Sanchez. He's a solid hitting Catcher with above average defense. If you're sending them a Starter (except for KK), Sanchez really needs to be the return. He would immediately be in the Top 5 prospects for the Phillies, maybe as high as 1, depending upon the analyst. You could also try to pry out  Luis Severino. I could write a whole article on Luis, he's a max effort Pitcher whose mechanics scare me a little. He reminds me a little of our own Yoel Mecias, as he works mid-90's with a really small frame. He's got good control and very good command of his Fastball which is presently Plus, but could end up Plus-Plus. Given his size, max-effort delivery and mechanics I worry about injury, but I also think he could be a very good bullpen pitcher. You could ask for last year's picks, but I'm not a big Ian Clarkin fan and Judge, while currently doing well is a big (literally and figuratively) risk. Beyond that if you want anyone who may end up with any future value you need to target their young Latin signings. Go for guys like Andy Diaz and Luis Torrens, load up on a bunch of them and hope something pans out. You could make a trade work here, probably in a few different scenarios, but a blockbuster would be tough to pull off and would really gut what is left of their system. That leads me to think they wouldn't do it and just cut their losses this season.

Blue Jays trade rumors: Joakim Soria

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The Jays would like bullpen help, no surprise there and Jon Morosi tells us this:

The Rangers are in sell mode, and Joakim has has been very good. He has a 2.76 ERA in 31 games this season. He has 16 saves, has allowed 20 hits, 4 walks and 40 strikeouts in 29.1 innings. Gotta like a 10 to 1 strikeout to walk rate. Soria is being paid $5.5 million this year, and there is a $7 million team option on him for next year. I'm sure the Rangers wouldn't be looking for all that much for him, it would be mostly a salary dump.

Ken Rosenthal also tells us that the Jays are thinking about bringing up Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris to work out of the Blue Jays pen. I like the idea of starting pitcher in the bullpen so they are learn how to get major leaguers out without the stress of being expected to guy 6-7-8 innings at a time. The Jays used to do that, Jimmy Key, David Wells and several others started their major league careers in the pen. It worked for them.  Add in:

Keeping their innings in check would also be good.

Anyway, adding Soria doesn't mean they won't call up Sanchez and Norris for the pen. Gibby does need more arms he can trust in his bullpen.

Poll
Would you like the Jays to trade for Joakim Soria?

  428 votes |Results

Friday Bantering: Lind, Cabrera

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The Blue Jays are trying to re-spin the Adam Lind MRI story. Shi Davidi tells us that the Jays had decided to do an MRI on Lind's foot before/without his mom's input. I never understand why teams get so invested in stories that really don't matter. Who cares if his mom suggested he get it looked at again? I tend to think that bad teams worry about what people think about them and good teams just keep their mind on the game and improving the team

But I get that PR departments are interested in managing news, I just don't see the point. I think there could be better use of their time (maybe reply to emails), but that's a rant for another day.

Lind got an MRI showing a fracture in his foot. His foot wasn't improving and, since it wasn't, he was going to get another test, whether his mom suggested it or not. Maybe it happened a day earlier than it would have, because his mom said something, but it really won't change the end date of his time on the DL. Anyway, Shi said:

Multiple sources indicated that something was lost in translation, and what may have happened is Lind's mother encouraged her son to take the exam after the team had raised the possibility. Such a scenario would certainly reflect better on the club, although it may be too late to change public perception.

Public perception is going to be bad until the team starts winning again. Let's face it, everything they do will be wrong until they start winning again. Until then, ignore the stupid stuff and it will go away, sooner or later.

I am kind of glad that Lind doesn't worry about club politics before talking to the press. It's kind of refreshing to see a player that just says what he thinks and doesn't just speak in cliches.

Also after Wednesday's game John Gibbons told us that it was Melky Cabrera's fault that Jose Reyes didn't slide into the plate. He's right, I said it in the recap:

Throw comes home, Reyes doesn't slide (he didn't see the throw coming, and Melky Cabrera was off to the side instead of straight in view, where he should have been, to coach Reyes.

It is the job of the on deck hitter is to let the runner coming to the plate, tell him to slide, tell him which side of the plate to slide towards. The runner can't be looking over his shoulder to see if a throw is coming in. He has to just run. In this case Reyes wouldn't have had any idea a throw was coming.

Being fair to Melky, I'm sure he had no idea there was going to be a play at the plate, when there was a ground ball to third base and a runner on second. He was as surprised as any of us. He really should have hustled to get to where he was in Reyes' line of vision. And likely did, when he saw there was going to be a play. Unfortunately, he's not as fast as Reyes.

What I really don't get is why Gibby felt it was necessary to throw Melky under the bus. I would have thought that talking to him in private could work as well as talking to the press.

And, if he felt the need to parcel out the blame for a bad moment, why not mention that Luis Rivera should have never sent Reyes home? He talks about Melky's error but doesn't mention Rivera's? Is that fair? If we are going to tell the press about one guy's mistake, shouldn't we be telling them about every mistake that was made on that particular play? If he had held Reyes, we would have had a runner on third and one out. A pretty good spot to be in.

Pretty soon, I'm thinking, the team is going to have to give Rivera a different job. I'm sure he's a good guy and I'm sure he is good at teaching the infielders, but he isn't working out as a third base coach.

And the Jays have signed Mexican pitcher Guadalupe Chavez. He's 16, 6'2" 150 lb (how can someone be 6'2" and 150 lb?). He can throw 93 mph already.

I didn't get to the comment leader board for Wednesday's GameThreads. We had 1805 comments. Spor led the way, great work.

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GameThread #2 for Game 94: Blue Jays @ Rays

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Dustin McGowan coughed up a three-run home run to Sean Rodriguez in the bottom of the 7th and we have a brand new ballgame. Blue Jays 5, Rays 5. Mark Buehrle will not win game #11.

The game has seen a couple of casualties already: Nolan Reimold left with a left calf strain, Munenori Kawasaki left with right hamstring tightness. Tomorrow, Reiwasaki will be playing in shallow right field and Kamold will be placed on the 15-day disabled list.

Dan Johnson has already walked three times here in his first game with the Blue Jays. His combined major league and minor league season walk total is now 82.

GO JAYS GO!

Blue Jays win over Rays 8-5, but Nolan Reimold and Munenori Kawasaki are injured

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Blue Jays 8 @ Rays 5

It lasted three hours and forty-one minutes, and the Blue Jays blew a three-run lead, but they gutted it out and came back to beat the Rays 8-5 at Tropicana Field. However, the win came at a cost: both outfielder Nolan Reimold (left calf strain) and infielder Munenori Kawasaki (right hamstring tightness) were pulled from the game.

After the game, Alex Anthopoulos addressed the media and told them that while Kawasaki is likely to be available tomorrow, Reimold will have to go get an MRI first. No word on whether mothers were involved.

The Blue Jays offence seems to be slowly coming back. After getting 14 and 12 hits against the Angels, Toronto got 11 hits and eight runs tonight. Yay!

Actually it was the Rays who got on the scoreboard first on an Evan Longoria sac fly in the bottom of the first against Mark Buehrle. A couple innings later, the Blue Jays returned with three runs. Munenori Kawasaki tied the game on a bases-loaded single, then Melky Cabrera followed up with his own RBI-single before Jose Bautista scored Jose Reyes on a sac fly.

The fourth inning saw the two teams trade runs. Nolan Reimold and Dan Johnson both walked, then Juan Francisco grounded out to advance them both, but Reimold arrived at third base and was obviously in some discomfort. He was replaced by Darin Mastroianni at third, who scored on a Jose Reyes single the next at bat. Buehrle allowed three straight hard-hit balls for three line drive singles, resulting in a run.

Buehrle finished after five innings with 93 pitches (60 for strikes), giving up nine hits and two runs on three strikeouts and a walk. He left with his club leading 5-2, in line for his 11th win if the bullpen holds the lead.

Well, that didn't happen. Chad Jenkins, Brett Cecil, Aaron Loup, and Casey Janssen combined for four innings of one-hit shutout ball. Unfortunately, Dustin McGowan did not pitch as well.

Coming in to replace Cecil to face Evan Longoria, McGowan walked him in a long (nine-pitch) plate apperance. He then walked James Loney on a short (five-pitch) plate appearence. With two on, Sean Rodriguez slammed a hanging 86-mph slider to the left field stands to tie the game.

The blown lead and two injuries sent Blue Jays fans into a horrible mood. I might have quit baseball forever if they had ended up losing the game. So I'm thankful for Steve Tolleson.

In the top of the ninth, Grant Balfour entered the game and promptly walked Dan Johnson on four pitches. Johnson, called up from the Bisons before tonight's game, still has not had an at bat with the Blue Jays because he walked on all four of his plate appearances tonight. Combined with his triple-A stats, Johnson is now up to 83 walks so far in 2014, which is just 100 fewer than J.P. Arencibia has had in his entire professional career (minors and majors). Johnson has walked 2.3 kilometres on bases-on-balls this season already.

Where was I? Oh yes, the ninth. After the Johnson walk, Juan Francisco struck out (which caused several Blue Jays Talk callers to ask Mike Wilner why he didn't bunt). But then Jose Reyes came up and doubled to right on a bad slider, setting up Steve Tolleson to be the hero. On a 3-2 fastball, with the infield in (and three stacked between second and third), Tolleson slammed (OK I lied) blooped a Texas Leaguer to right that managed to stayed fair by about a foot to score Johnson and Reyes. It's about time that one of those bloops went in the Jays' favour.

The Blue Jays would tack on another run with a Jose Bautista single to make it 8-5, which was more than enough for closer Casey Janssen to shut the door for his 14th save of the year.

Jays of the Day! Jose Reyes (+.397 WPA), Steve Tolleson (+.230), Dan Johnson (+.168), Aaron Loup (+.138), and Meky Cabrera (+.106).

Suckage Jays: Dustin McGowan (-.473), Dioner Navarro (-.218), and Juan Francisco (-.174)

Tomorrow, the Blue Jays avoid David Pricewho is home with a "virus", and will face right hander Jake Odorizzi instead. Game starts at 4 pm and we'll have a GameThread going here. Join us, won't you?

Rays vs. Jays, game 1 recap: Sean Rodriguez ties it, Grant Balfour loses

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Again.

The deciding moment was innocent enough. Grant Balfour threw a fastball on the bottom edge of the strike zone but off the plate away. It was the type of well-located, tough pitch that might very well have earned a strikeout. It was the kind of pitch that you could look at and say "this is a good pitcher." Instead, Steve Tolleson flicked it off the end of his bat into short right field, just fair, to drive in two runs in the top of the ninth to break a five-five tie. And you know what, the other run Grant Balfour gave up was on a fine pitch also -- a low fastball to Jose Bautista -- that resulted in a weak fly ball the other way, but landed inches ahead of a sliding Ben Zobrist. That pitch too was one that a good pitcher might have made.

But Grant Balfour is not just what he showed in those two pitches. If he routinely painted the edge of the zone with fastballs, we would be happy. He is also the pitcher who walked Dan Johnson on four pitches. He's the pitcher who hung a slider to Jose Reyes (for a double). He's the pitcher who walked Melky Cabrera on five pitches. He's the pitcher who yanked a fastball into the dirt three feet in front of the plate. When you routinely dig a hole, sometimes they hit your good pitches too, and push you into it. The Rays have a $4 million mop-up man.

Losing this game in the ninth hurt extra, because of the excitement of the seventh inning. With two outs, the Blue Jays brought in Dustin McGowan to face Evan Longoria. Longo walked on nine pitches. James Loney had a much easier time of it, walking on five pitches. That brought up Sean Rodriguez, facing a righty. S-Rod looked at Joe Maddon, expecting to be pinch hit for, but the Jays had Aaron Loup, the side arm lefty specialist, already warm in the bullpen. Maddon decided that Rodriguez had the better chance and let him bat. The first pitch was a fastball over the plate that Sean barely missed. The third pitch was a hanging slider that he did not miss. Sometimes, Rodriguez's extreme raw power comes out, and it's beautiful. This was one of those moments, and it tied the game.

Some other notes:

  • Chris Archer started off well, befuddling the Jays with his fastball/slider combo and striking out the first four (and five of the first six) batters he faced. Starting in the third inning, the Jays saw him well and hit him hard, reinforcing a fact I never quite believe: that you can't really predict a pitcher's performance within a game by in-game results.
  • Desmond Jennings fouled a ball off the inside of his knee, and finished the at bat, but then was substituted before taking the field. X-Rays were negative, and he's day-to-day with a bruised knee.
  • Noland Reimold also left the game after appearing to come up a little bit lame while running the bases.
  • In the bottom of the sixth inning, with Yunel Escobar on first base, Logan Forsythe grounded to short. It was a good double play ball, but Escobar actually beat the flip at second. Munenori Kawasaki completed the turn and got an out at first base. It's an interesting play, because with a more aggressive slide, Escobar could have probably broken up the turn. He might have also broken Kawasaki's ankle though, so really, I have no problem with his decision to slide to the bag, not over it.
  • Dan Johnson was back in The Trop today as the Jays' designated hitter. He walked four times. Still miss you, Dan.
  • The picture for #RaysFlexFriday was clearly Lionel Messi wearing an American flag and a Rays jersey. I dig it.

Game #95 Preview: Blue Jays @ Rays

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Today's game gets underway from Tropicana Field as the Blue Jays and Rays play the second last game before the All-Star Break at 4:10 pm. The Blue Jays will be facing the Rays' third-best today in Jake Odorizzi instead of David Price, who is sick with a virus.

Price is not the only one not right today, as the Blue Jays have announced that Nolan Reimold is off to the 15-day disabled list, joining fellow recent waiver acquisition Cole Gillespie.

Odorizzi, a 24-year-old Illinois native, came over to Tampa with Wil Myers in the James Shields trade and has been pretty good in his first full season in the major leagues. His 26.7 K% is exactly why the Rays acquired him, although a .321 BABIP has caused his ERA of 4.10 to greatly underperform his FIP of 3.29. With a 34.0 GB% this season, I think it's fair to say that Jake Odorizzi is a legitimate fly ball pitcher. Going up against the righty today for the Blue Jays will be Drew Hutchison.

Last season Odorizzi was heavily a fastball and slider pitcher and well....he's not anymore at all. If you want the in-depth explanation on what's changed with Odorizzi then I suggest you go read this piece from D Rays Bay. To sum it up nicely, Alex Cobb helped Odorizzi develop a similar split-change to his own this offseason and it's become Jake's second favourite pitch. The movement on the pitch is now significantly nastier than his old changeup and it's paid off for the righty:

Things_medium_medium

via D Rays Bay

So while his fastball is still thrown nearly 60% of the time, Odorizzi's splitter is his second most-used pitch at 22%. In fact, against left-handed hitters the fastball-splitter combo is almost exclusively what he throws, while he reverts to his old fastball and slider against same-handed hitters. Let's take a look at a GIF of it (click to watch):

Leonysmartinkinning2_gif_zpse8a30103_medium

viaSportsTalkFlorida.com

Hopeful Lineup

  1. Jose Reyes SS
  2. Steve Tolleson 2B
  3. Melky Cabrera LF
  4. Jose Bautista 1B
  5. Dioner Navarro DH
  6. Colby Rasmus CF
  7. Juan Francisco 3B
  8. Erik Kratz C
  9. Anthony Gose RF

Find The Link

Find the link between Jake Odorizzi and the youngest son of King Louis XVI and Marie Antoinette.

Gut Feelings

  1. Germany is winning the World Cup tomorrow.

Editorial note: an incorrect version of the Game Preview, indicating that David Price was the starting pitcher today, was posted earlier. We regret and apologize for the error.

How to watch 2014 MLB Futures Game online

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The who, what, when and where to watch for the 2014 MLB Futures Game.

The 2014 SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game will begin at 5 p.m. Sunday, with the U.S. Team -- managed by two-time World Series champion Twins manager Tom Kelly -- challenging the World Team -- with Twins Hall of Famer Bert Blyleven on the bench -- in a showcase of the MLB's best up-and-coming talent.

23 of the 25 players on the U.S. squad are playing in their first Futures Game, with Texas' Joey Gallo and the Mets' Noah Syndergaard the only names repeated from last year's roster. For the World team, Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, Maikel Franco of the Phillies, A.J. Jimenez of the Blue Jays and Enny Romero of the Rays are all making return trips to the game, with Lindor appearing in his third Futures game.

The game is set for 5 p.m. ET on Sunday, and will be televised on MLB Network. If you want to catch the game online, MLB.com will be streaming it.

Game: MLB Futures Game

Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN

Time: Sunday, July 13, 5 p.m. ET

TV: MLB Network

Online:MLB.com, MLB Gameday App

Radio: SiriusXM

Besides the Home Run Derby, what events should there be in a MLB skills competition?

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In the next few days, I will try to avoid talking about the major league Blue Jays as much as possible. Their recent struggles have made me want to just step away from the team a little, especially during this brief mid-summer break.

The festivities surrounding the All-Star Game certainly help to distract from the games that matter. Tonight, Jose Bautista will be captaining the American League team in the Home Run Derby, which starts at 8 pm Eastern. Frankly, I am not a huge fan of the Derby--I love seeing sluggers hit dingers as much as the next guy, but after an hour or so I find it repetitive--so every year around this time I think of how much fun it would be if the day before the All-Star Game is turned into a skills competition event.

I imagine a lineup like this:

1. Target Bunting

Pretty much the complete opposite of the Home Run Derby. Inspired by the event held during the Midwest League and Korean Baseball Organization's All-Star breaks, each league sends out their three best bunters, who will be aiming to lay down a bunt down the baselines towards a target laid down half way up the line. Each bunter will get 10 strikes. Each "ring" of the target will be worth a certain number of points, and the bunter with the greatest cumulative points wins the competition. Pop-ups caught by the pitcher or catcher results in negative points and an immediate ejection from the competition

Why this will work: To some, bunting is a core fundamental in the game of baseball that major league hitters should be good at. The game is simple to understand and to run. Pitchers will soft-toss the ball to minimize injury risk.

Why this will fail spectacularly:  This event might actually be more boring than the third round of the Home Run Derby. Maybe a band can be playing at second base during the bunting. A player somehow still gets injured despite the soft tosses, breaks a finger and is not right for the rest of the season. Even worse, the competition leads to greater bunt usage in actual games.

2. Power Pitching

This competition takes the fireballers of baseball and see who can pitch the fastest while maintaining command. Three pitchers from each league gets to rear back and throw nine pitches each towards a 3 x 3 grid at home plate, with each square covered with paper (kind of like this). Only the speed of pitches that are thrown through an intact piece of paper count towards the final score; pitches that misses the grid or goes through a square that the pitcher had already hit don't count. The pitcher with the greatest cumulative speed score wins. That means there could be some strategy to throw more slowly towards the end in order to ensure command; to prevent pitches that are just tossed a 90 mph minimum could be set.

Why this will work: I love watching Aroldis Chapman pitch. Triple digit speeds are sexy. Throwing hard is the pitcher's equivalent of hitting home runs so yes, this could be exciting.

Why this will fail spectacularly: A $200-million pitcher blows out his arm when he throws too hard and is out for the rest of the season.

3. Base Race

There are two competitions within this sprint competition: the home-to-first race and the first-to-third race. For the home-to-first race, the batter-runner takes his place in the batter's box and is soft-tossed a ball. After making contact with the ball he darts down to first base (instead of an actual bag, it will be replaced by a chalk square to prevent twisted ankles). The time that will be recorded will be the time between contact and the time his foot hits any part of the chalk square. Naturally, for home-to-first there will be two separate categories: four runners (two runners from each league) will be left-handed hitters and another four will be right-handed hitters. The runner with the shortest time in each category will be crowned the two winners of the home-to-first race.

Then, all eight runners will, one at a time, run from first base to third base (of course they will need to also touch second). Each runner will start from the base (no taking leads) and will have to stop right at third base (no overrun). Slides are permitted but probably aren't helpful.

Why this will work: Speedsters are fun! Even though baserunning is a lot more than pure speed, the mental aspects of baserunning is hard to replicate in an exhibition setting, so this is the next best thing.

Why this will fail spectacularly: Someone gets hurt, probably a hamstring and is out for the rest of the season.

4. Cannon Practice

Six balls will be placed at predetermined places in the outfield. Each league sends out three outfielders (one at a time), and they pick up the ball and give it a heave towards a large bullseye target area around each base (including home plate). Each base must be hit at least once. The two other outfielders from the same league will be out on the field to act as cut-off men, who can help with three out of the six throws. Points from a successful throw that use a cut-off man counts towards both outfielder's final score.

Why this will work: Outfield assists from cannon arms are fun to watch. May just encourage outfielders to hit cut-off men during games.

Why this will fail spectacularly: Actually quite a complicated competition to assign points for. Do all outfielders throw from centre field? Someone gets hurt by stepping on one of the balls placed on the ground and is out for the rest of the season.

5. Home Run Derby

The classic competition will be kept as similar to its current format as much as possible; however there will be one fewer round. The first round will have each of the eight batters (four from each league) face seven outs. The top two from each league then advances to a five-out playoff.  Then finally, the winners of the playoff round faces each other for a seven-out round. Home runs do not carry over from round-to-round. And, to add one more extra bit of flair to the competition, each batter will be allowed to do a bat flip after one of their home runs in each round. A panel of judges will then decide the bat flip with overall the highest artistic merit of the entire Derby and to give that player an extra trophy.

Why this will work: Some may disagree but I think a good bat flip is the cheery on top of the homerun sundae. Because Yoenis Cespedes already perfected the art:

Cespedesflip_medium

via Bill Hanstock

Why this will fail spectacularly: Brian McCann gets invited to sit on the panel. Brian McCann gets hurt by an errant bat.

What other skill competitions can you think of?

Other Matters

Pitch #5

Before the regular season resumes will be the fifth edition of Pitch Talks, on Thursday, July 17 at 7 pm. The event will be hosted by The Sports Brahs' Graham Kay and will feature Hall of Famer Bob Elliott from the Toronto Sun, Drew Fairservice of theScore, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet Magazine, and Joanna Cornish of Hum and Chuck. Tickets are only $15 but if you use the discount code "minorleaguer" you will save five bucks on top of that! That's like a free beer (which you can gift me)!

Hope to see many of you there.

Around The Nest & MLB Futures Game

Last Friday's episode's topic ranged from Lane Thomas, Roberto Osuna, and Max Pentencost from the GCL Blue Jays all the way up to a discussion on Dalton Pompey and Daniel Norris of the Fisher Cats.

Shi Davidi was there and had a good piece where he talked with Pompey and Norris before the MLB Futures Game on Sunday. I saw most of the game and was very impressed with Dalton Pompey. He went 2-for-4 and scored on a Javier Baez home run. In addition to a patient approach at the plate, one of the two singles showed off his quick hands as he was able to turn on a 98-mph fastball. Norris struck out one in his inning of work, and also showed off some hustle on a ground out when he ran over to cover first base. Certainly a nice bounce back from his last start in double-A when he couldn't get out of the first inning.

Transaction Question

Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reported Sunday that the Bobby Korecky had snuck through waivers (I was surprised, actually) and was outrighted to Buffalo. Instead of reporting to Buffalo, Korecky will head to Durham to participate in the 2014 Triple-A All-Star Game this Wednesday.

My question: Korecky is now off the 40-man roster, but if the Blue Jays select his contract to bring him up to the big leagues and later want to option him to the minors before August 1, would they have to place him through optional waivers again? Generally, waivers that are obtained are valid within the current waiver period (which ends at the end of July), but what happens in case of players who get removed off the 40-man? Does Korecky's first optional waiver get invalidated?

AL East Midseason review: Catchers, where the Orioles, surprisingly, may be the best

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The Orioles lost catcher Matt Wieters after a month of the season when he was hitting better than ever. How do Orioles backstops fare against the rest of the catchers in the division? Better than you might think, it turns out.

Going into the season, the Orioles looked to have the best catching situation in the division, with Matt Wieters the lone incumbent as other teams chased more stable catching situations. Despite losing Wieters to season-ending elbow surgery after he played only 26 games, the Orioles sit at the All-Star Break with the best hitting catchers out of all of their division opponents.

The table below is the total offensive output for each team heading into Sunday's games. This is whoever is catching that day, and would not include the production (or lack thereof) for a particular game by a player who is primarily a catcher but is the designated hitter on a given day.

AL EAST CATCHERS - HITTING

TeamAVGOBPSLGOPSAL OPS Rank2BHRRBI
Orioles.252.299.407.7068th191046
Yankees.246.297.379.6759th151046
Red Sox.232.273.357.62912th17839
Blue Jays.242.287.317.60413th11537
Rays.202.273.266.53915th8432

No team in the division has an above-average performance at bat from their catchers. The AL is led by the tandem of Derek Norris and John Jaso in Oakland, who have combined for an .834 OPS. For the O's and the Yankees, it is a situation that is meh at best. For the rest, despite free agent acquisitions in the offseason, it's a completely terrible offensive contribution at this position.

Tampa Bay Rays

Catchers: Ryan Hanigan (434.2 innings caught), Jose Molina (404)

Hanigan is batting  .212/.309/.327 on the season and he's the better hitter of the pair of Rays catchers. They have gotten similar amount of playing time despite Molina sporting a slugging percentage that is below the Mendoza line. Molina is slugging .199. That's absurdly bad.

Molina brings the reputation of a pitch framing wizard, which you'll see in action a few times a game when he catches, literally stealing strikes. He is less than adequate about throwing out runners once they reach, catching only 7 of 34 runners. That's a 21% rate. The league average is 28%.

Hanigan is more in line with league average in caught stealing, throwing out 7 of 26 runners, which is good for a 27% rate. However, this is poor by Hanigan's recent history, as he threw out nearly 50% of runners the past two seasons. That was probably a big part of why the Rays signed him to a modest deal for three years, and he's not living up to that end of the bargain yet.

Toronto Blue Jays

Catchers: Dioner Navarro (473.2 innings caught), Josh Thole (207.2), Erik Kratz (158)

Navarro has gotten the bulk of the playing time after signing a two year, $8 million contract in the offseason with the expectation that he'd be the starting catcher for the Jays. He has a .659 OPS and has thrown out only 9 of 46 baserunners - a rate of only 20%.

Thole is primarly the R.A. Dickey catcher, so his value is solely that he can approximate the ability to catch the knuckleball regularly. He has a .632 OPS and has thrown out only two of 15 base stealers.

Kratz is hitting to the tune of a .585 OPS, but he's thrown out five of 17 base stealers. For the Jays, much like the Rays, the catching position is largely a black hole.

Boston Red Sox

Catchers: A.J. Pierzynski (540 innings caught), David Ross (296), Christian Vazquez (future Hall of Famer, according to the Boston prospect hype machine)

Pierzynski has been so bad that the Red Sox already designated him for assignment even though they signed him to an $8.25 million contract for the season. As has become a Boston custom, the front office stuck the shiv in his back on his way out of town via leaks to the Boston media. He was pretty bad, with a .633 OPS while throwing out only nine of 47 runners, but nobody cares that he sat in the clubhouse after games with his phone out instead of paying attention to teammates.

Ross is basically the platonic ideal of a backup catcher, poor-hitting (.600 OPS) but decent defensively, throwing out seven of 27 base stealers. That's a 26% rate, just about league average. He's also the platonic ideal of a Red Sox whiner with the way he will occasionally pop off about other teams and PED players while ignoring the fact that David Ortiz is on his team.

Vazquez is destined for greatness, like Ryan Lavarnway before him.

New York Yankees

Catchers: Brian McCann (582 innings caught), J.R. Murphy (159.2), Francisco Cervelli (100)

McCann was signed to a five year, $85 million contract to bring his left-handed power bat to the lefty hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. He's been a disappointment in that regard so far, with only a .669 OPS, although he does have double digit home runs. One surprise is that McCann has thrown out 21 of 48 basestealers, a 44% rate. His career best was 30% in a year where he threw out 36 of 120 runners. People are not afraid to run on McCann.

Murphy was pressed into service while Cervelli missed time due to a hamstring injury. He is back in the minors now and doesn't figure to be back up before rosters expand, barring another injury. Murphy hit for a .673 OPS in his big league action and threw out two of ten runners.

Cervelli, when not injured, has batted .697 this year, about what you'd expect from a career backup. In his 100 innings, he's been tested twelve times and thrown out four runners.

Baltimore Orioles

Catchers: Caleb Joseph (302.1 innings caught), Matt Wieters (194.2), Nick Hundley (176.1), Steve Clevenger (170)

One of the unfortunate things about this season for the Orioles is that Wieters was finally living up to the offensive production we hoped for from his prospect days. Before going down with a torn UCL, Wieters had an .839 OPS. It was clear something was wrong with his throwing arm, though, as he only threw out one of twelve runners -  he usually does 35% or better.

Joseph, who was in his seventh minor league season in part because he did not have a good defensive reputation, has been the surprise find in Wieters' absence. While he's only batting .189/.258/.311, he is performing far better than you ever could have hoped defensively, including throwing out 15 of 29 runners. That's over 50%! The league is testing the 28-year-old rookie and it isn't going well for them.

Hundley, acquired from the Padres once it became apparent that Wieters would not be returning, has a .666 OPS in Baltimore and has only thrown out two of 14 baserunners. He displaced the lefty Clevenger, who has a .670 OPS and only threw out three of 20 runners. The Orioles quickly realized their best remaining catcher was, improbably, Joseph, and they've used him the most ever since.

***

From bottom to top, here's how the division's catchers stack up collectively according to Fangraphs WAR:

Rays: -0.3
Jays: 0.2
Red Sox: 0.4
Orioles: 0.9
Yankees: 1.3

The Yankees are 17th in MLB in WAR for their catchers. Everyone else is worse. The Rays have the worst catchers in baseball by this metric. That seems fair. If McCann was throwing out runners as poorly as he usually does, he would be farther down. If he keeps that up, he gives Yankees catchers an edge over the likes of Joseph.

It's dire out there for everybody, but if you'd told me at the beginning of the season that the Orioles would only have Wieters for a month, I would have expected far worse out of their catchers. Joseph has no hope of replacing Wieters' bat, but if he keeps throwing out runners, the O's will keep not missing Wieters far more than I thought possible.

Despite missing their best catcher, the Orioles have close to the best catching situation in the division out of all of their AL East rivals.


Will Melky Cabrera and Colby Rasmus be back next year?

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What do you think?

Jeff Blair has started a column at Sportsnet.ca and, in his first, he has a bit telling  Alex Anthopoulos to 'Do Something'. I'm sure we'd all like to see Alex do something, as long as it doesn't cost us too much in prospects.

For me, the interesting part of the post was:

Still, keep in mind that there is expected to be a 2015 season (at last report) and given the state of the market and everything we're led to believe from the Blue Jays brass, neither Melky Cabrera nor Colby Rasmus will be back.

Now I don't know what he means by 'led to believe'. Has he talked to Alex or someone else in the front office who has said 'we don't expect to sign Melky and Colby'. Maybe he has talked to the players or their agents and was told they are unlikely to be back. Or perhaps, and most likely, he's guessing that the team won't want to pay what the pair would be asking. Maybe it is a cheap Rogers thing.

Anyway, whichever one is true, it is fair speculation.

Rasmus is making $7 million this year and will be a free agent for the first time in the off-season. And he's hitting a big .212/.266/.453 with 12 home runs in 59 games. Baseball Reference has him at a -0.3 WAR, in part because his defense hasn't been good. Maybe it has been the little nagging injuries that has slowed him in the field. He's better than his numbers, we know that, but how much better is an open question. Will he be better than Anthony Gose would be next year is the question the Jays front office has to try to figure out.

Cabrera started the season on fire. On April 30th he was hitting .342/.368/.567. Since then he's been hitting .280/.340/.402 which is still pretty good but not an All-Star. His defense is, how to put it, an acquired taste (every timesomeone tells me something is an acquired taste, it turns out to be awful). He is so much better than last year, so it seems like this year is better than it is. He's making $8 million, the second year of the 2-year deal that he signed going off his suspension, he'll be looking for more next year.

If they both aren't signed, next year, we'd have Gose playing center field and someone else, Kevin Pillar or perhaps a free agent signing in left. I'd like the Jays to to keep one of them. Take your lumps watching Anthony's bat, to get his glove. Maybe platoon him if he's really bad against lefties, but give him a shot.

Let's have a poll.

Poll
The Jays should

  681 votes |Results

Welcome back, Brett Wallace: Blue Jays re-acquire first baseman from Orioles for some (small) amount of dollars

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A trade! Not one of the magnitude most fans were looking for, but a minor league trade just went down, as announced by the Blue Jays, minutes after the Norfolk Tides reporter David Hall tweeted about it. Former First Baseman of the Future Brett Wallace has returned to the Blue Jays from the Orioles in exchange for some--probably miniscule--amount of cash.

Wallace, who will be turning 28 in August, is hitting just .265/.329/.389 with 10 homers and 12 doubles through 90 games this season for the Tides, Baltimore's triple-A affiliate. He has yet to appear in the major leagues this season since signing a minor league contract with the Orioles several days after the Astros released him in spring training.

After Dan Johnson's promotion to the major leagues, the Bisons have been fielding double-A call-up Mike McDade (also a Blue Jay who had left the organization and then come back) at first base. The former prospect is currently more of an organization filler-type than even a "quad-A" player who can serve as short-term major league help.

Wallace was a 42nd round pick by the Blue Jays under J.P. Ricciardi in the 2005 draft but instead chose to attend Arizona State. Incidentally, other players in that round that refused to sign included John Axford (six picks after Wallace) and Tim Lincecum (eight picks after Wallace). Going to college was probably the right choice for him, as three short years later he was selected 13th overall by the St. Louis Cardinals and received a $1.84 million bonus.

As a top prospect, it was noteworthy that he was involved in three trades two years into his professional career, which was a sign of concern by those who were following his development. He was first traded from the Cardinals to the Athletics for Matt Holliday, then from the A's to the Blue Jays for Michael Taylor, then from the Blue Jays to the Astros for Anthony Gose. As of today, Taylor has a career WAR of -1.0 through 26 games, Wallace is at -0.6 through 311 games, and Gose is at 1.1 (positive!) through 153 major league games.  I think we can say that the Cardinals probably won that series of trades.

Bluebird Banter's hugo wrote extensively about Wallace when the Blue Jays acquired him for the first time. Hugo was right to have had concerns about his defense over at third--the Blue Jays almost immediately shifted him to first after the trade. Just to put prospect porn-ing in perspective, read that piece by hugo about how good of a hitter Wallace was. He owns a major league batting slash line of .242/.313/.391 with 29 homers in just over 1000 plate appearances over four partial seasons.

Oh yea, old comments always make me sad:

Sadz_commentz

Several days later, John Sickels released his top 20 Blue Jays prospects list for 2010. Sitting on top was Brett Wallace, followed by Zach Stewart, Travis d'Arnaud, and Chad Jenkins. With four years of hindsight, we see that the eighth-ranked Henderson Alvarez turned out to be the best out of the bunch.

Throughout 2010, while Wallace was batting .301/.359/.509 with 18 home runs in 95 games down in Las Vegas (thank heavens the Jays left there), he continued to be touted as the logical replacement for Lyle Overbay as the Blue Jays' next first baseman, so it was a shock when it was announced that the "major league ready" prospect was being swapped for a 19-year-old outfielder playing single-A ball. Bluebird Banter had two threads for the trade reaction. Again, reading through the comments are the best part (remember that was when we fans were still worshipping Alex Anthopoulos). In our poll, 56% of voters thought that in the long run, the Astros would win the trade:

Poll_medium

I doubt Wallace will see any major league time with the Blue Jays (although at the current rate of injuries, it is possible), but if he does I will have to think of a new way of re-routing the train from GOSE to HALLADAY:

2014_blue_jays_roster_route

Click to enlarge. Image copyright: Minor Leaguer. All rights reserved, do not use without permission.

But I'm sure that would be the least of our worries if we ever do see Wallace in a Toronto uniform.

Orioles promote Christian Walker to Triple-A Norfolk, trade Brett Wallace to Jays for cash to make room

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The Orioles are going to promote Bowie first baseman Christian Walker to Triple-A Norfolk. They have traded the existing Norfolk first baseman, Brett Wallace, to the Blue Jays for cash considerations.

The Orioles made a small minor league trade on Monday that's more notable for what it allows them to do than what they will get in the trade. Triple-A Norfolk first baseman Brett Wallace was traded to Toronto for cash considerations. You don't get much cash back for a Triple-A first baseman.

At Double-A Bowie, the Orioles have first baseman Christian Walker performing very well. They'll be promoting him to Norfolk now that a space has opened up. That's a well-deserved promotion for Walker, who has batted .300/.368/.518 in 94 games for Bowie. The former fourth round pick out of South Carolina in the 2012 draft has hit 20 home runs for the Baysox this season.

All along, the question about him was whether Walker would hit for enough power to play first base at the MLB level. That's why he was a fourth round pick in the first place. At age 23, he's not young in prospect years, but he's not old either, and it's not out of the question that he's made adjustments needed to succeed.

Wallace was little more than the kind of spare part that many teams have been stocking their Triple-A clubs with. Though he had four years of big league experience, that only consisted of 311 games, time in which he batted a combined .242/.313/.391, which is not going to keep you in favor for long as a first baseman. Back before his big league debut, he was a top 50 prospect according to the likes of Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America. Orioles fans know what that's worth.

The O's stashed Wallace at Norfolk as a minor league free agent because that's what you do with that kind of player, who's really there only in case of a series of catastrophic injuries makes his presence necessary. In the Orioles' case, even when Chris Davis went down with his oblique injury, they preferred to bring back Steve Pearce than call up their Triple-A first baseman Wallace. This was a good decision.

In 90 games for Norfolk, Wallace has batted .265/.329/.389, not the kind of performance you are likely to miss. If the Blue Jays get anything valuable out of him, well, good for them, I guess. He wasn't going to have a future in Baltimore, and Walker just might, so clearing out Wallace to make room for Walker looks like a good idea.

After the 2013 season began, it was looking a lot like Davis was going to slug his way out of the price range the Orioles could afford to pay him once he becomes a free agent. With Davis batting .199 at the All-Star Break in 2014, it could be that he just whiffs his way out of favor.

Either way, with Walker looking like he could be the next Orioles first baseman, the time to challenge him and find out what they've got in him is now. That looks to be exactly what the Orioles are doing. Sometimes it might not look like it, but the Orioles always have a plan. If their plan for Walker keeps working out like they hope, we might just see him in an O's uniform some time next year.

Casey Janssen Has Hitters Hacking

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Casey Janssen has always been a crafty one, but in 2014 he's fooling hitters differently than he has in the past.

Casey Janssen is undoubtedly one of the most interesting closers in the league.

Janssen pounds the zone with sub-90 fastballs and keeps hitters just off-balance enough to prevent major damage. His demeanor on the mound, and his visible and exaggerated exhales, seem to indicate the kind of nervousness that could ruin a closer. However, he has thrived in high-leverage situations pitching in the ninth for the Blue Jays.

This season, despite the problems the Jays have had in the bullpen, Janssen has remained stellar. With a 1.23 ERA and 14 saves it is tempting to think that the 32-year-old reliever is just humming along as usual, but that's not exactly the case.

For one his velocity has gotten even worse:

Janssen_velo_medium

Along with his decrease in velocity has come a downturn in strikeouts:

Janssen_k_s_medium

One positive trend, and perhaps Janssen's saving grace, has been the way he's cut down on his walks:

Janssen_bb_s_medium

In fact, among pitchers who've pitched at least 20 innings (an admittedly convenient number given that Janssen has 22 IP to his name) Janssen has walked the lowest percentage of batters faced at 1.2%. In other words, the Jays closer has only walked one of the 84 batters that have come up against him. The sample size in this case is admittedly quite small, but it is not so small that it's not worth asking how Janssen had done so well at avoiding giving up the free pass.

The most intuitive assumption when it comes to pitchers cutting down on their walks is that they are pounding the zone more, and in Casey's case that is happening to an extent. His Zone% is 47.6%, which is higher than last year's total (42.7%), but actually below his career average (48.2%).

The biggest factor in Janssen's refusal to concede any walks has been his ability to generate more swings than ever before especially on pitches outside the strike zone:

Time Period

O-Zone Swing%

Zone Swing %

Total Swing%

2012

32.9%

63.0%

41.5%

2013

28.4%

62.8%

43.1%

2014

36.7%

71.2%

53.1%

Career

27.6%

64.8%

45.5%

Visually, the multitude of swings Janssen has generated so far looks like this:

Now, getting batters to swing isn't always the best thing. Even the most casual fan knows that swings are what leads to things like singles, doubles, and home runs, which can really hurt a pitcher.

The best kind of swing from a pitcher's point of view if a whiff, all other swings are dangerous. Unfortunately for Toronto's closer, his whiff rates have not soared as a result of hitters swinging more. His whiff rate of 9.0% this year, is slightly higher than usual for him (his career average is 8.0%), but on a per swing basis it's actually down.

So if Casey Janssen is generating more swings, but not significantly more whiffs-not to mention less strikeouts- that would seem to indicate he's allowing more contact. On the surface that sounds problematic.

However, not all contact is created equal. Hitters are much more likely to get hits squaring up pitches in the zone, while connecting with pitches that should be balls is far less likely to yield a knock.

The chart below shows Janssen's contact rate allowed, inside and outside the zone:

Time Period

O-Zone Contact%

Zone Contact%

Total Contact%

2012

67.4%

86.4%

78.8%

2013

73.3%

84.7%

80.4%

2014

79.8%

84.6%

82.8%

Career

68.1%

88.4%

82.1%

Somehow Janssen is getting hitters to make more contact with "bad" pitches, while getting them to whiff more when the pitches are in the zone. Unless you are facing Vladimir Guerrero in his prime that is going to work out pretty nicely for a pitcher.

The analysis or reliever's in general and just over 20 innings from a pitcher specifically is a dangerous game. There is no drawing definitive conclusions to be done here.

What we do know is that hitters are swinging for more of Janssen's pitches than ever, and it's not going well for them.

It's not clear exactly why that would be the case. Janssen is attacking hitters with the same pitch mix he always has with worse velocity. To the untrained eye it wouldn't appear he has radically overhauled his delivery to add deception. However, whatever he's doing working as the proof is in the proverbial, albeit small-sample, pudding.

Janssen has always had an unusual way of coming across excellent results, but 2014 might be his most unusual season yet. He's excelling by getting more hitters to make more contact with his pitches while cutting down on velocity and strikeouts. Completely abstaining from walks hasn't hurt either.

In a bullpen that has been anything but consistent, Casey Janssen has been the dependable anchor. In some cases it is easy to confuse dependable with boring.

In Janssen's that would be quite the mistake.

A.L. East mid-season review: Left Field and DH

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The Orioles have a good thing going with their left field and designated hitter rotation. Nelson Cruz and Steve Pearce have provided excellent production while sharing the two positions. How does the rest of the division stack up?

Since the Orioles have been rotating players between left field and designated hitter, we figured that we'd combine the two positions for our mid-season review. I wrote the season preview for left field while Steve Damerell wrote the preview for designated hitters. We both predicted Nelson Cruz to be the second best in the division.

Before the season, Buck Showalter said that Nelson Cruz would play left field against lefties and DH against righties indicating a platoon was in the works. It hasn't exactly worked out that way. Showalter has decided to keep Cruz in the field about half of the time no matter which hand the opposing pitcher throws with. So far this season, he's played 41 games as the left fielder and 45 as the designated hitter.

It's pretty similar across the A.L. East. Three out of the five clubs have employed a significant timeshare in left field this season. The only two that haven't have been the Yankees with Brett Gardner and the Blue Jays with Melky Cabrera. Here's how they've done so far this season.

AVGOBPSLGWAR
Brett Gardner.279.353.4242.7
Steve Pearce.316.383.5672.5
Nelson Cruz.287.353.5672.4
Matt Joyce.270.352.4251.7
Melky Cabrera.299.348.4531.4
Brandon Guyer.266.313.3600.9
Daniel Nava.238.330.3100.6

Judging on an individual basis, Gardner has been the best left fielder in the division so far in 2014. However, when we put the total contributions of the position together, Pearce and Cruz have put up the most WAR by a substantial margin. They've accrued just about 5 WAR together this season. About half of that production has come at the DH position but they've combined to form the best tandem so far. Gardner has put up a typically good season while showing a little bit more power than he has in the past with nine home runs, six of which have come at home so Yankee Stadium is helping him. Cruz has been better than anyone could have reasonably expected at the plate this season but has given back some of his value in the field.

His value would be even greater if the Orioles would just let him man the DH position every day. That said, he's hit so well this season, maybe the Orioles should just leave the current plan in place. Perhaps playing the field just less than every other day allows him to stay more connected to the game between at bats and hit better. He does have a .435 wOBA while playing left field and only a .366 wOBA while DHing, which is still very good. On the other hand, DHing more often may keep him healthy.

Who knew that Steve Pearce had this in him? Even I won't take any credit for this. I did write earlier this year that he should be playing instead of Delmon Young but I had no idea he had THIS in him. Pearce already has a career high in home runs with 11 while putting up a .412 wOBA and a 163 wRC+. He's been producing offense at a rate that's 63% better than league average so far.

Matt Joyce has been running hot and cold so far this season. He started hot in April, cooled off in May, picked it back up in June and has been slumping again in July. Joyce is still a disaster against lefties but he's hit righties about as well as ever. His strong on base percentage has led to a productive season so far.

Surprisingly, Melky Cabrera has bounced all the way back to his pre-2013 form. I didn't expect him to bounce back so strongly after an injury marred season and a steroid suspension. He's producing at just about the same rate as his 2011 season when he had a 118 wRC+ with a 120 number this year. 2012 saw him put up a crazy .379 BABIP which led to inflated numbers he'll likely never see again. Despite that, he's been productive this season at the plate. His defense hasn't been nearly as good.

Brandon Guyer has been the other half of the left field platoon in Tampa Bay. It figures that I predicted the platoon to be David DeJesus and Sean Rodriguez before the season. DeJesus has been hurt so Joyce slid over to pick up the slack with Guyer as his sidekick. Guyer has been just below a league average hitter while playing solid defense so he's accrued almost a win above replacement.

The combination of Daniel Nava and Jonny Gomes bring up the rear in the division. Nava started the season so poorly he had to be sent to the minors to right himself. They've both gotten on base at acceptable rates but not done much else.

My original prediction before the season went Yankees, Orioles, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays. It was hard enough to predict who was going to actually play the position for each club let alone which pair of players was going to be best. So far, I'd say the order has been Orioles, Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, Red Sox. I did ok at the top but the bottom three are a mess.

The designated hitter position in the division has a few of the same characters as left field so let's take a look at them too.

AVGOBPSLGWAR
Nelson Cruz.287.353.5672.4
Matt Joyce.270.352.4251.7
Adam Lind.320.389.4891.0
David Ortiz.255.357.4871.0
David DeJesus.269.367.4400.7
Delmon Young.305.333.4240.3
Carlos Beltran.216.271.401-0.8
Alfonso Soriano.221.244.367-1.2

Nelson Cruz shows up at the top of this chart too. He's spent 45 games at DH so far this season and has been excellent while playing the outfield or not. In our DH preview, we predicted Cruz to spend almost all of his time at DH and be the second best DH in the division. He'll have to settle for being the best DH in the division while spending just over half of his time there.

Matt Joyce comes in next on our list but he's only played 19 games so far at DH for the Rays. He's a solid defender so he plays the outfield more often than not, but only when a righty is on the mound for the opponent. Adam Lind has had a solid season from a slash line perspective but his power has gone missing. After hitting at least 23 homers in four of the last five seasons, he's only got four at the break. Despite that, he's been pretty good this season on the back of a .389 on base percentage.

David Ortiz's numbers look to be substantially down from last season except for the 20 home runs he's already put up. But if you correct for his .255 BABIP so far, his numbers would look right in line with his last few seasons. He's still walking a lot and barely striking out, which is impressive for a power hitter. We haven't seen the decline we've all expected quite yet. Joyce's WAR number is pushed up by the time he's spent in the outfield so Ortiz may well have been the second best DH in the division so far this year.

David DeJesus has played the most games at DH for the Rays this year with 37 but he's now on the DL so he won't be increasing that number any time soon. He's been pretty good when he's played.

Delmon Young has played 21 games at DH for the Orioles this season. Despite some timely hits from Young this season, he should continue to take a back seat to Cruz and Pearce in the Orioles Left Field/DH rotation. He still doesn't have much of a role on this team.

The Yankees DH tandem of Carlos Beltran and Alfonso Soriano has been awful this season, accruing a combination of -2.0 WAR between them. Soriano was so bad he was recently designated for assignment and then waived by the club. Unfortunately, Carlos Beltran hasn't been much better. His elbow injury has restricted him to the DH role and now he's on the DL after hitting a ball off the batting cage that broke his nose AND gave him a concussion (seriously). That three year, $45 million contract the Yankees gave him in the offseason isn't looking so hot right now.

If I had to put the teams in order for 2014, I'd go Orioles, Red Sox, Rays, Blue Jays, Yankees. Before the season, we predicted the order to be Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, Yankees, Rays. Just like left field, Nelson Cruz leads the Orioles to the front of the pack. The most interesting discussion in the comments section of the DH article was about the Rays DH situation. Commenter AndrewTorrez bet Steve a beer that "some guy" for the Rays would outhit Alfonso Soriano. Considering that Soriano put up a .264 wOBA before getting released, I'd say you better get ready to buy a round Steve.

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