The series that chronicles the highs and lows of the Royals roster.

If nothing else, the Royals have refused to fade totally out of the postseason picture. Given, nothing really was done to improve the team at the deadline, the closeness of this part of the race is really only due to a Toronto losing streak, and counting the 2nd Wild Card Games Back is sort of a sucker's game. Still, Kansas City has moved to 1.5 games out of the final "playoff spot," even if they'd have to leapfrog the hilariously overpaid New York Yankees roster and the Blue Jays.

So 57-53, more up than down right now. Meaningful baseball (or whatever your favorite euphemism is) at the beginning of August. Is it because of our wonderful Pitching Staff? Let's check those Ups and Downs for the past couple weeks.

James Shields -

The difference between Shields of recent years and Shields of this year has been well-documented on this blog. To throw my own (considerably smaller) hat into the ring, you can sort of see the loss of 10% of his stuff this year just by looking at the DIPS numbers. Strikeout rate inching downward, home run rate rising slightly, walk rate down from last year. It's as if Shields is pounding the zone a little more often because he knows he's not getting as many hitters to chase.

Shields last three starts, in keeping with his performance after about, say, May, have been a mix of legitimately great outings (7 IP, 7 K vs. the White Sox), ones where a better hitting team would've pounded him (10 baserunners allowed in six innings to the Twins, only one RA), and  voodoo mastery (8 IP, 2 K vs Oakland). He's actually dropped below his strand rate for his career after sailing above it for most of the year, so he was due a bit of luck. Keep 'em off the board for a little while longer, James, and it's hard for us to be unhappy with you.

Jason Vargas -

Only had one start since returning from an appendectomy. Was pounded for seven runs in it. His ability to regain form is one of the keys at the Royals making a run down the stretch.

Jeremy Guthrie -

Recovered to worse-than-average MLB starter in his last couple starts after looking like the disaster artist in the previous stretch. Guthrie sometimes has starts that make you think that he'll retain his value (what's left of it) well next year (six scoreless vs Oak), and then there's the starts like the one versus Cleveland where it's difficult to remember a time where he could get anyone out.

Danny Duffy -

Duffy's Jekyll and Hyde routine continues, to the point where it's no sort of expect. Every-so-often a guy like him will take a step forward in command/control and become something legitimately special. And sometimes, with Duffy, you can see that guy. He's turning 25 soon, though, and his career walk rate is 4.24 per 9. I've really enjoyed watching him in the rotation this year, and sometimes he looks awesome (he shut down Cleveland on two hits and two walks over seven), and then other times he walks six Minnesota Twins and I just want some vodka.

Yordano Ventura -

Ventura burst through that wall we were talking about last time, striking out 14 hitters over 13.1 innings against Cleveland and Minnesota. It's not setting the world on fire, but seeing him miss bats with regularity after such an extended dry spell was pretty fun. It does bear mentioning that, at 120+ innings this season, it will be interesting to see how he's handled down the stretch.

Greg Holland -

It's getting to the point where whenever Holland actually allows a run, I seriously think about giving him a down arrow.

Wade Davis -

I would say the same thing about Wade Davis, but he never allows runs anymore.

Bruce Chen -

One bad spot start and one good mop-up appearance sounds like what we can expect from Chen going forward. I hope the Royals at least tried to flip him at the deadline, though I think I know how a phone conversation that starts out "Bruce Chen is available" ends.

Kelvin Herrera -

Well, he's still here and still pitching well. I'm sorry I advocated trading you, Kelvin, but I don't want to hear any "no one could've predicted this" if you decline next season, mmkay?

Aaron Crow -

"Decline?" said Aaron Crow. "Decline is my middle name!"

Jason Frasor -

3 IP in 5 appearances so far. Nothing really to write home about, but effective in his limited role. The perfect Royals trade acquisition!

Francisely Bueno -

Still wins the award for "Royal I'm most likely to forget" when I list off the members of their bullpen to friends who want to know who's in the Royals bullpen. Yes, I have weird friends.

Scott Downs -

Starting to think the baseball gods are playing a cosmic joke on me by making me write a couple words about the performance of Scott Downs every week.

~

The Royals are back in action in Arizona tonight, looking to catch the Yanks and Blue Jays. Happy Tuesday!

After a 4-2 homestand and a win in a makeup game at Nationals Park, the O's head to Toronto for a brief three-game road trip.

Tuesday, August 5, 7:07 ET: Bud Norris @ Mark Buehrle

Norris has made three starts since the All-Star break, pitching quite well in two games against the Angels, but struggling against the Mariners. His current ERA is pretty nice, but his peripherals suggest some luck involved, as he has a career-low BABiP (.279) and an above-average strand rate.

Buehrle this year looks more like the pitcher Toronto thought they were getting after their big trade with the Marlins in the '12-'13 offseason. His current ERA is impressive, but even someone who has such a track record of defying his peripherals probably can't keep the gap quite so large all year. Buehrle throws three fastballs (four-seamer, sinker, and cutter), plus a curveball and changeup. He pitches lefties and righties pretty similarly, using his fastballs nearly two-thirds of the time and his change a little more than his curve. The main difference is that he goes to his sinker as an out pitch against righties, while he prefers his changeup late in the count against fellow lefties.

Maybe hot:Nick Markakis (1.154 OPS, 50 PA), Delmon Young (1.108 OPS, 50 PA)

Likely not:J.J. Hardy (.357 OPS, 29 PA), Nelson Cruz (.170 OPS, 18 PA)

Wednesday, August 6, 7:07 ET: Wei-Yin Chen @ Drew Hutchison

Chen is coming off of two great starts against Seattle, allowing just one run over 15.1 IP and striking out eleven while walking only two. Oddly enough, he hasn't made a start against Toronto since late 2012. Chen's FIP-ERA difference might suggest he's benefited from some luck, but his HR/FB% is still a little high (12.7%). His xFIP, which adjusts FIP based on a league-average home run rate, is 3.70, in line with his ERA.

Hutchison lost part of 2012 and most of 2013 to Tommy John surgery, not seeing any time in the majors last year. His peripherals this year are decent (strikeout and walk rates right around the league average), but his ERA isn't, despite the usual indicators of luck (BABiP, LOB%, HR/FB%) suggesting nothing out of the ordinary. The righty throws mostly four-seam fastballs a little over half of the time to all hitters, adding the occasional two-seamer. Against righties, he'll also turn to his slider in all counts, while against lefties, he saves it for when he's ahead in the count or has two strikes, mixing in changeups instead in other counts.

Thursday, August 7, 7:07 ET: Miguel Gonzalez @ J.A. Happ

Gonzalez has managed two quality starts in three outings since the All-Star break, giving up three runs over 13.2 on the West Coast but allowing four runs in five innings at Camden Yards on Saturday. All things considered, that's pretty good, since he's struck out only seven and walked just as many over that span. Gonzalez's FIP frightens me, folks. Like Chen, he's perhaps had some tough luck with home runs (13.5% HR/FB, 4.65 xFIP), but a lot of his apparent success this year is in his well-above-average strand rate (81.9% LOB).

After suffering some lower back issues and starting off the season in Toronto's bullpen, Happ's been a fairly typical back-end starter. His numbers aren't great, and he averages less than six innings per start, but he's stuck in the rotation since early May. The Orioles saw him back in June and managed only one run over six innings. Happ throws lots of fastballs, mostly four-seamers, but some sinkers and cutters, too. Fellow lefties see offspeed stuff just 10% of the time, and while righties see changeups more often, Happ still throws over 75% fastballs to them.

Maybe hot:Adam Jones (1.038 OPS, 14 PA)

Likely not: Delmon Young (.400 OPS, 10 PA)

Editor's Note: SB Nation's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $18,000 Fantasy Baseball league for tonight's MLB games. It's $2 to join and first prize is $2,000. Jump in now. Here's the FanDuel link.

The Blue Jays get a rather important series underway tonight at the Rogers Centre as the division-leading Baltimore Orioles come to town. With a four-game lead in the AL East, it's quite the opportunity for the Blue Jays to gain some ground and avoid dropping out of the second wildcard spot with the Yankees close on their heels. The pitching matchup this evening sees lefty Mark Buehrle go to the mound against 29-year-old Bud Norris. The righty has started two games against Toronto this year, putting in two dominating performances. In 13.2 combined innings against them, Norris has allowed a single earned run, while striking out nine Blue Jay hitters. Beyond that, the California native has been the Orioles best starter this season and currently sports a 3.69 ERA.

Thankfully for the Blue Jays, the Orioles had to play a makeup game in Washington last night and would have only got to their hotel in Toronto very early this morning. Normally in a situation like this, the starting pitcher of the next day's game will fly to the city early to get enough rest for his start. That didn't work out so well for Norris though:

Bud Norris' flight to Toronto was canceled, so he'll join the team in Washington and fly with them. #Orioles#OriolesTalk

— Rich Dubroff (@RichDubroffCSN) August 4, 2014

As mentioned in seemingly every preview about Norris, the right-hander throws mainly a fastball and slider and rather unremarkably pitches to contact to great effect. He's certainly been helped by the solid Orioles defence behind him this season, which is a big reason why they're four games clear of their competition in the AL East. The game plan of Norris is pretty predictable, with the righty throwing sliders outside of the zone to same-handed hitters inducing weak contact:

Hopeful Lineup

1. Jose Reyes SS
2. Melky Cabrera (DH this man!)
3. Jose Bautista RF
4. Dioner Navarro C
5. Colby Rasmus CF
6. Brett Lawrie 3B
7. Juan Francisco 1B
8. Ryan Goins 2B
9. Anthony Gose LF

Bullpen Usage

The fourth inning started out badly: Brett Lawrie was taken out of the game with back tightness, and Mark Buehrle had an extended inning that started with back-to-back homers and later followed by three singles, including a turf single that hopped away from new third baseman Danny Valencia.  However, Colby Rasmus responded by hitting a two-run homer in the bottom half to make it 4-2.

Buehrle now gives way to Aaron Sanchez after tossing 96 pitches over the first four.

Brett Lawrie's return lasted just 3 innings, he left before the top of the 4th. No word on the reason why yet, but it has to be an injury of some sort.

Well, not some sort, this sort:

Lawrie removed as a precaution because of "lower back tightness" #BlueJays

— steve buffery (@Beezersun) August 6, 2014

Brett, we really do need you. Recover quick.

UPDATE:

Lawrie looked like he injured himself in his first at bat in the bottom of the second inning. He singled but missed first base as he was rounding it, causing him to break awkwardly before returning to first. However, he told Barry Davis of Sportsnet that his back was already bothering him during batting practice:

Lawrie says this is the first time he's had lower back issues. "It was grabbing at me during bp and got worse once game began" #bluejays

— Barry Davis (@SNBarryDavis) August 6, 2014

After the game, we were told that Lawrie will have an MRI done tomorrow and will be considered day-to-day even though it had loosened up during the game after some treatment:

Brett Lawrie will have an MRI tomorrow, says he has no history of back issues, but it was something "just grabbing" at him. #BlueJays

— Megan Robinson (@RobinsonMegan) August 6, 2014

Blue Jays' manager John Gibbons says Brett Lawrie is now day-to-day with a tight back.

— Sportsnet590 The FAN (@FAN590) August 6, 2014

After getting treatment during the game, his back loosened up but he wants to see how it feels in morning and results of MRI. #bluejays

— Barry Davis (@SNBarryDavis) August 6, 2014

The Blue Jays have two more days before they have to decide on a roster move as Steve Tolleson must return to the roster by Friday.

Orioles 9 @ Blue Jays 3

For the first time in what seems like decades, the second place Blue Jays started a meaningful series at home against the first place Orioles--a sweep of the series would've put Toronto within one game of recapturing the lead position of the American League East. Unfortunately for the Jays, the best they could do in this series is to gain one came on the Orioles after they fell 9-3 in a game that featured poor pitching and insufficient clutch hitting.

Mark Buehrle followed his bounce-back win against the Red Sox last Wednesday with another terrible start to begin a series. Buehrle lasted only four innings, throwing 96 pitches in that span. The Orioles only managed to score four runs on him despite his giving up 10 hits and three walks. The Orioles had already scored a run in the third, but it was really the fourth inning that deflated the crowd of 36,183. Caleb Joseph and Jonathan Schoop hit back-to-back homers to lead off the inning, then three more singles scored another run to give the orange birds a 4-0 lead. Oh, and on top of that, Brett Lawrie--who just returned to the field after six weeks away--was taken out of the game in the fourth because of back tightness.

The feeling of doom and gloom was briefly interrupted by a Colby Rasmus two-run shot to the right field bullpen to answer right back in the bottom of the fourth. I say "briefly" because the Orioles also answered right back when a struggling Chris Davis took reliever Aaron Sanchez deep to make the game 5-2 in the very next half-inning around three strikeouts.

Sanchez had his first struggles since his callup in the sixth inning, when he walked two (his first two free bases in his major league career), leading to a run on a Nelson Cruz single, which snuck by Jose Reyes's limited range at short. Sanchez did induce two groundballs that could've led to double plays (one was fielded on a high bounce by Danny Valencia), but aggressive slides by Nick Markakis and Adam Jones turned them into fielder's choices. I don't generally include PITCHf/x data into game recaps but home plate umpire Jeff Kellogg had a particularly bad call when Sanchez was facing J.J. Hardy in that inning:

via www.brooksbaseball.net

Despite the poor results, we saw some remarkable movement in his fastballs, which sat around 97 mph and touched 99 mph. The 47 pitches he threw was by far the highest count he has recorded since his conversion to a reliever.

Offensively, the Blue Jays had 12 hits and four walks but failed at a few chances to strike back at the Orioles: Toronto had two on and nobody out in the fifth and scored none, they had the bases loaded in the seventh and managed only one run on a Jose Bautista sacrifice fly, and left two walks on the bases in the eighth. Deflating.

Toronto got a clean seventh from Brett Cecil, but Dustin McGowan followed by allowing three runs on two walks and two hits to give Baltimore a commanding 9-3 lead, diminishing any hopes of a comeback or a sweep.

Jays of the Day!Melky Cabrera (+.147 WPA), Jose Reyes (+.133) went 3-for-4 with a walk, and I will also give one to Colby Rasmus (+.071) for his two run shot despite leaving three runners on in the rest of the game.

Suckage Jays: Jose Bautista (-.251) on his t-shirt day, Mark Buehrle (-.189), Dioner Navarro (-.154), Aaron Sanchez (-.095), and I will also give one to Dustin McGowan (-.061), who had a terrible outing when the game was kind of already out of hand.

According to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet, Brett Lawrie will be getting an MRI on his back tomorrow although neither he nor the team think it is "serious". The Blue Jays will be looking to snap their four-game losing streak tomorrow night as they face a pretty good lefty in Wei-Yin Chen.

Late Addition

Oh man, I have to add this quote from Mark Buehrle (hat tip to Andrew Stoeten):

Buehrle on O's: "If somebody thought we were going to sweep these guys, you’re on some good drugs ... They’re in first place for a reason."

— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) August 6, 2014

But hey, remember when the Jays swept the Tigers and the A's?

Bats go flat as game mercifully ends after 15 innings.

My mom always told me that honesty is the best policy, so I won't lie to you guys. Full disclosure: I've always loathed pitchers' duels. In fact, amongst the many reasons I detested the Astros' move to the AL, the one small bit of silver lining that I was able to rescue was the fact that we would be able to play some more Backyard Baseball style games in the Junior Circuit. I imagined dozens of dingers, oodles of doubles, and hurlers being chased after 3 or 4 innings. Suffice it to say, I wasn't exactly thrilled to listen to a pitchers' duel on the radio at an NL park, especially after the sour ending to my first recap last week. But hey, you do what you gotta do.

What went well

• Dallas Keuchel continued his ace-esque ways, giving up just one mistake and finishing with a stellar line of 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB and 4 SO.
• The defensive shifting continued to confound the SABR haters, as by my probably (very) inaccurate audio count, relying wholly on Rob Ford and Steve Sparks, the Astros gobbled up 4 grounders that wouldn't have been eaten if not for the shift. Take that, ya stuffy traditionalists.
• After being thoroughly flummoxed by the previously forgettable Kyle Kendrick for 6 innings, the middle of the order (sorta) woke up in the 7th thanks to a Trogdor walk, a Jason Castro dinker Dunkin' Donuts single, and Jon putting the single in Singleton (bet you never heard that one before) and reminding everyone at Citizens Bank just one more time of the foolishness of Ruben Amaro, Jr., plating Trogdor and tying the contest at 1.

The Blue Jays try to get back on track tonight against the Orioles in the second game of the "Series of Statement Games". Toronto now sits 5.0 games back of the division-leading Orioles, although it still is just August 6th. "Mr. Hit or Miss" Drew Hutchison takes on left-handed starter Wei-Yin Chen tonight, who has been Baltimore's second-best starter this season behind Monday's starter Bud Norris. His ERA currently sits at 3.76, while his xFIP is 3.70 to go along with a career-low BB-rate of 4.1%. The three-year $11.09 million contract he signed in 2011 is sure looking like a stroke of genius for the Orioles, as well as the added bonus of a $4.75 million team option for the 2015 season. Chen's last two starts came against Seattle, where he pitched a total of 15.1 innings allowing only one earned run.

Spectacularly, Chen has only faced the Blue Jays once in his entire career with the Orioles back in September of 2012, which is pretty unlikely considering how often the two teams face off against each other. The Taiwanese pitcher mainly throws a fastball, slider, and splitter with his hard stuff hanging in the low-90's and his fairly hard splitter coming in around 85 mph. Against left-handed hitters Chen sticks to his fastball and slider, while fastball, sinkers, and splitters are the name of the game against righties.

The lefty locates the splitter on the outer half against opposite-handed batters, which used to work to great effect, but has slowly lost its effectiveness as you'll see below:

Hopeful Lineup

I'm just going to go ahead and assume Brett Lawrie is out for the game.

1. Jose Reyes SS
2. Melky Cabrera LF
3. Jose Bautista 1B
4. Dioner Navarro C
5. Nolan Reimold DH
6. Danny Valencia 3B
7. Colby Rasmus CF
8. Steve Tolleson 2B
9. Anthony Gose RF

Bullpen Usage

The Blue Jays were quiet at the trade deadline. But they are due to get a few injured starters back. Here we take a look at how the Jays can best use their resources to continue the playoff push.

One of the surprisingly inactive teams at baseball's non-waiver trade deadline was the Toronto Blue Jays. Through Monday they are 4 games back of Baltimore in the American League East, and currently hold the second wild card spot. It is silly to think that Alex Anthopolous and company were not working behind the scenes to make something happen to improve the team; regardless, the inactivity led to grumbling from star players Jose Bautista and Casey Janssen. Following the deadline the Jays lost 3 of 4 games to a meager Astros team. Results of this sort will likely be attributed to the lack of a big splash at the deadline, but I don't think anger should be directed at the front office's decision to stand pat. If anywhere, anger could be directed at unlucky injuries and some questionable on-field management.

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It is important to remind everyone that Dave Cameron at FanGraphs and Sam Miller at Baseball Prospectus showed that the deadline moves did not affect teams' playoff odds all that much. Fangraphs had the Jays' odds of winning the division increasing 3.4% (largely due to their win on July 31^st), and Baseball Prospectus had the Jays' odds of winning the World Series decreasing 1.4%. So while this year's deadline involved a lot of player movement, was a lot of fun and gave us lots to debate, they didn't really move the playoff odds needle too much. So standing pat is a defendable decision. The Jays need to affect their playoff odds by winning games with their current players, which will require using them in such a way that maximizes their strengths.

A critical thing for Jays fans to consider when evaluating their team's inactivity at the deadline is that they are getting three major league ready and productive players over the next couple of weeks. The even better news is that they will be arriving without the team having to give anything up to get them! I am talking about Brett Lawrie, Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion. Lawrie has already returned to the team, and Lind and Encarnacion should be back in the near future. Barring any setbacks or injuries to other players, the Jays team will be closer to its original construction. So, how best to use these players? This gets us to the on-field management aspect.

Research in The Book demonstrates ways for a team to optimize their batting lineup so as to squeeze extra runs out of its available players. Aligning one's resources appropriately can lead to a real advantage. Lineup optimization is not going to add 10 wins to a team, but it is an easily adjusted aspect of the game that could add ~1 win. It is an example of good management and is worth trying to get it right. To date the Blue Jays have largely eschewed this advantage. This has partially been a result of injuries. A lineup with Dioner Navarro in the 4^th spot, Nolan Reimold in the 5^th spot, Danny Valencia in the 7^th spot (against a right-handed pitcher; more on that later), and then Munenori Kawasaki, Anthony Gose and Ryan Goins slotted in as well, is going to struggle. But even with the full group the Jays have rarely used an optimized lineup. From my perspective when Lawrie, Lind and Encarnacion are available the Jays lineup against a right-handed starter should look like this:

*wOBA values are career numbers for the split.

The major change here is having Bautista hit 2^nd. He is the best hitter on the team and there is good evidence that a team's best hitter should bat 2^nd. Bautista's approach does not need to change to fit with old-school ideas (e.g., moving runners over, sacrificing). He should continue to approach his plate appearances the same way. Moving him up a spot gets him more plate appearances for the rest of the season, and takes advantage of his on-base prowess in front of Carbera, Encarnacion and Lind. The Jays have yet to use Bautista in the 2^nd spot this year. This simple change could help. Setting the lineup this way leaves the Jays with Anthony Gose (bats: L, position: OF), Danny Valencia (R, IF), Nolan Reimold (R, OF), Steve Tolleson (R, IF), and Josh Thole (L, C) on the bench. Gose offers a solid late game defensive and/or speed replacement, while the others offer counter measures against left-handed relief pitching.

Against a left-handed starter there should be changes to take advantage of players' ability to hit left-handed pitching. I would align things like this:

The top of the order remains the same, but now at the bottom of the order we see some of those lefty mashers get their time to shine. Valencia assumes his role in the 3b platoon (with Juan Francisco) and Steve Tolleson slots in as the DH. His wOBA against LHP is an impressive 0.369 but that is in only 175 PAs so some caution needs to be exerted with having him as the regular DH in this configuration. Reimold is another option. On the bench, Gose represents a late game defensive and/or speed replacement, leaving Lind and Francisco as solid pinch-hit options.

Josh Thole should be slotted at the bottom of the order (regardless of the handedness of the opposing starter) on days when R.A. Dickey pitches. It will be best for the Jays if Dickey's starts are not opposite a lefty as Thole's 0.243 wOBA really leaves something to be desired. His .300 wOBA against righties is more attractive.

It should be clear from my suggested lineups that Ryan Goins and Munenori Kawasaki return to AAA Buffalo. There is some excitement on Toronto radio and television about Goins' latest stint in the majors, but he is not the answer for the rest of the season. In this second stint (49 PA), he has yet to take a walk, is striking out 20% of the time, and has been somewhat fortunate when making contact (.350 BABIP). I am not convinced that he has figured it out at the plate. Kawasaki is similar. While he brings a lot of fun to the clubhouse and demonstrates his hustle and heart by diving for balls that are already three feet past him, he just does not provide a skill that makes him a necessary component for the rest of the season. ZiPS and Steamer project both players as replacement level for the rest of the season.

Just as the Blue Jays need to deploy their offense in such a way that takes advantage of platoon splits, they must do so with their pitching. For example, Aaron Loup and Brett Cecil should be limited to use against lefties. John Gibbons brought Loup into the 8^th inning of the August 1^st game against the Astros. The game was tied 1-1. Yes, this is a high leverage situation and Loup is one of the Jays better relievers. But the handedness of the batters that Loup was likely to face went R, R, L, R, R, R. Loup's career wOBA-against for right-handed batters is 0.314, for left-handed batters it is 0.222. While the 0.314 is not terrible, the Jays had better right-handed options (e.g., Dustin McGowan, Casey Janssen). So this is not really an effective use of Loup. He gave up 2 runs and the Jays lost 3-1. This is a slightly cherry-picked example, but these are the strategy mistakes that need to be avoided if the Jays are going to make the playoffs. Ideally things will get a bit easier for John Gibbons if Brandon Morrow gets healthy, Steve Delabar reclaims his 2013 All Star form, and Sergio Santos learns to command his pitches. But that is a great deal of uncertainty and the Jays need to be focused on winning now with the arms they have available.

Nothing that I have stated here about lineup optimization, platoon splits, or bullpen use is new. Some of it may even be obvious to readers. Nevertheless the ideas are important and should be implemented. The Jays not making a big deadline move is defendable. The Jays using the group of players they have decided to move forward with sub-optimally is not. They have 49 games left to make up ground on the Orioles. Small lineup adjustments and consistent, accurate use of players can help the Jays gain the few extra runs (scored or saved) and wins needed for making the playoffs for the first time in 20 years.

. . .

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference.

Chris Teeter is a Featured Writer at Beyond the Box Score. You can follow him on Twitter at @c_mcgeets.

So this is going to be the reoccurring story line, every time the Jays lose a game (from Scott Macarthur at TSN):

General manager Alex Anthopoulos, who's cut his travel with the big league club considerably this season, surprised some players with his decision not to fly to Houston and address the team.

As of Tuesday afternoon, the first time the team had gathered in the home clubhouse in 12 days, nothing had been said to the group by Anthopoulos or anyone higher in the Blue Jays' front office.

I really hate this stuff, my twitter feed was filled with the Jays lost because they were disappointed in the lack of moves before the deadline. It wasn't because Mark Buehrle was terrible, they didn't hit and the Orioles are pretty good.

As much I hate it, if I'm Alex, I'm going down to talk to the players. I might not be a believer in the idea, but I figure if the players have an excuse, they might use it. Why not just eliminate the issue.

Teams look lousy when they lose. They always looks lifeless losing. When we lose I see tweets saying one of two things, either, they are defeated look at their terrible body language or how come they are smiling when they lose. What ever they do is going to be wrong.

I never think communication is wrong, if they players are talking about wanting to hear from management, then go talk to them. GMs always come into their jobs talking about how they are going to install an open line of communication and then when things happen, they stop talking.

It doesn't cost anything to take the elevator down to the clubhouse, spend 20 minutes answering questions from the players and let this die a quick death. Get over it, and let's win and lose games without having this in the back of everyone's head.

I don't know, maybe Gibby has a 'chain of command' thing and doesn't want Alex coming into his territory. I doubt it, but it's possible. But, for a one time thing, get it done. Tell the players that management believes in them, tell them they tried to make some trades but nothing worked out, answer their questions and then tell them to forget about it and go out and play.

Wei-Yin Chen is going for his sixth consecutive victory. Drew Hutchison pitches for the Jays. Nolan Reimold is playing!! Oh, and the O's lineup is back to normal; Davis hits fi

Many people's heads may still be spinning from all of the offense in last night's clash between the two teams. A total of 11 pitchers were used in the 26 hit affair. So, the starters will be asked to go at least seven against lineups that have hit the first and second most home runs in baseball. Should be fun.

Pitchers

RHP Drew Hutchison, Toronto

2014 stats: 22 G, 7-9, 4.62 ERA, 122.2 IP, 125 H, 14 HR, 41 BB, 111 SO, .263 BAA, 1.35 WHIP
Last start (@ Houston): 3.0 IP, 4 ER , 6 H, 0 BB, 2 SO
Career vs. Baltimore: 5 G, 2-0, 1.16 ERA, 31.0 IP, 7 BB, 28 SO

Hutchison started off the season fairly well with an ERA under four for the first two months of the season, but he has struggled lately. His ERA in July was 6.53 and two of his last three starts lasted three innings or less.

The last time he faced the O's was June 13 at Camden Yards. He threw seven scoreless innings of six hit baseball, striking out three.

LHP Wei-Yin Chen, Baltimore

2014 stats: 21 G, 12-3, 3.76 ERA, 124.1 IP, 133 H, 18 HR, 21 BB, 90 SO, .274 BAA, 124 WHIP
Last start (vs. Seattle): 7.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 SO
Career vs. Toronto: 1 G, 0-1, 9.00 ERA, 5.0 IP, 1 BB, 3 SO

Chen has been really good his last two times out. He has racked up 15.1 innings and only allowed 1 earned run. Pretty good stuff. But those starts did come against one of the more offense-deficient teams in the league. Even so, he has won his last five starts in a row. Three of them were against Texas, Washington and Oakland. All three of those clubs are in the top half of the majors in runs scored.

He continues to do a nice job of limiting walks and that makes his high home run rate (12.7% of fly balls turn into home runs) more manageable. Not to mention the Orioles tend to scored a lot of runs when Chen starts. His 5.19 runs of support are fifth in all of baseball. They will need it against a hard hitting Toronto team.

Lineups

Orioles (w/ career numbers vs. Hutchison)

Lots more left-handed bats in tonight's lineup and Davis returns to the fifth spot. Surprising that Caleb Joseph goes to the bench after three straight games with a home run.

On the bench: Jonathan Schoop (1-for-7 with a home run), Steve Pearce (1-for-3), Caleb Joseph (0-for-2), Delmon Young (none).

Blue Jays

It is surprising that Chen has such little experience against a division rival but he has only ever face three Blue Jays currently on the active roster. It  is his first appearance in Toronto. Gose is 1-for-1, Danny Valencia is 2-for-7 with a double and Brett Lawrie is 0-for-2 with a walks and a strikeout

The Orioles had absolutely no answer for the Blue Jays' Drew Hutchison in a 5-1 loss on Wednesday night. Hutchison held them to two baserunners in 8.2 innings, with the O's lone run coming from a Chris Davis home run.

The Orioles are a team capable of marvelous feats of strength and excellence at the plate. When they are hitting, they will leave you shaking your head in wonder. When they aren't hitting, they will also leave you shaking your head in wonder. On Wednesday night in Toronto, it was the futile kind of head-shaking, as they mustered one lone hit against the immortal Drew Hutchison in a 5-1 loss to the Blue Jays.

It was an even more futile thing than it sounds, because not only did they manage only one hit, they had only one walk. Their lone baserunner in the entire game prior to the ninth inning never even stayed on base: Chris Davis crushed an impressive opposite field blast in the second inning for his 19th home run of the year. If he could swing like that every time, he'd be back on the way to 50+ home runs.

The rest of the team spent the night stinking up the joint. There's not much better of a way to put it. After the Davis home run, Hutchison retired the next 22 batters he faced, all the way through until there were two outs in the ninth inning and he walked Nick Markakis. With Hutchison at a season-high 115 pitches thrown, Jays manager John Farrell opted for caution over the complete game, bringing on Casey Janssen for the game's final out.

Hutchison entered the night with a 7.71 ERA in his home starts, a 4.62 ERA on the year in total. He was averaging fewer than six innings per start for the year, giving up three walks per nine innings. He had only turned in seven quality starts out of 22 games started. Unfortunately, three of those starts have come against the Orioles, and in throwing a near-complete game against them Wednesday, he added a fourth. It was a sad and pathetic effort as they sought to win their fourth straight game.

They needed some offense. Orioles starter Wei-Yin Chen did not have a good night on the carpet. The Rogers Centre carpet was part of the reason why, as a series of fast grounders just out of the reach of Orioles fielders led to four hits and two runs in the bottom of the first inning. The O's were down 2-0 just like that, although at least Chen managed to strike out the pesky Munenori Kawasaki with the bases loaded to hold the damage there.

That first inning was bad BABIP luck in a place that's designed for such. The second inning, well, there wasn't much bad luck about Jose Bautista launching a two-run home run halfway up into the second deck in left field. He must have gotten the right signal from the man in white for that pitch. No, not really. Well, maybe. Who knows with that shady cast of characters. Either way, it was Bautista's 22nd home run of the season. He finished off the night a triple short of the cycle.

Chen ended up with a five and dive, giving up four runs on eight hits and two walks in his five innings. He struck out six, which will never win you many awards, but there are nights where it can be good enough for the team to win. Either of the last two games, it would have been good enough, in fact. Chen had the misfortune to start on the night when the Orioles hitters folded up the tents after their outburst the last two games. Chen took the loss to fall to 12-4 on the season, with Hutchison's win raising his record to 8-9.

The Jays hit 5-11 with runners in scoring position for the game. That's a good way to scratch out five runs. The Orioles never had an at-bat with a runner in scoring position all night, and did not have an at-bat with a man on base until the game's final batter.

If they were facing a Cy Young-caliber pitcher, this would make sense. But Hutchison? What is this team's deal? A 0.98 ERA in four starts! He has a 5.30 ERA against the whole rest of baseball. The Orioles might be single-handedly saving Hutchison from banishment to the minor leagues.

Not much to be done except show up and try to do better tomorrow. Maybe they'll hit better, maybe they'll pitch better. Maybe they'll do both. Their lead has shrunk to four games in the AL East after this loss to their closest competitor.

In Thursday's rubber game, the Orioles will send Miguel Gonzalez onto the carpet against Toronto's J.A. Happ. A win will bring them back up to a five game lead. A loss in the game and series would see the division lead shrink back down to three games. Better up by three than down by three, but even better up by five.

Daniel Norris tweeted this:

On the move again. One step closer. I've been promoted to AAA Buffalo. A big gracias to God & all my supporters. #justkeeplivin

— Daniel Norris (@DanielNorris18) August 7, 2014

I'm very glad to see it, Norris didn't have the best ERA in New Hampshire, but he's struck out 12.4/9 innings. A few too many walks, 4.3/9, but I'm glad they are pushing him a bit, challenging him.

Norris was our 2nd round pick in 2nd round of 2011 and he was number 3 on out preseason top prospect list.

The Jays were talking about bringing him up to help out in the bullpen this year. I'm wondering if this move is setting up that one. We'll see it the Jays move him to the Bisons' pen at some point. I hope he makes, at least, a few starts for the Bisons.

Congratulations Daniel, I'm looking forward to your next promotion.

I hate this: the Blue Jays got 3 innings (and 1 single) out of Brett Lawrie and he's back on the DL. Obviously the MRI he had showed a reason for the 'lower back stiffness' that took him out of the game. They are calling it 'left oblique strain' now, which is less than good. That can take a long time to come back from, but the Jays aren't giving a timeline on it.

Lawrie has no end of bad luck. Taking a ball off the hand and breaking a finger, well that's bad luck, it could happen to anyone (though perhaps he could keep his hands a little further back from the strike zone). The oblique trouble is new, I don't remember him having this problem before.

I don't see it being being a case of bringing the guy back to soon from rehab.

Rob Rasmussen gets another call up to fill the empty roster spot. So we are back to the 8-man bullpen, but then that will just be for a day, Steve Tolleson will be back from the Paternity List tomorrow. Rasmussen has a 3.18 ERA.

Also Cole Gillespie was outrighted to Buffalo.

Update:

GM Alex Anthopouos on recovery time for Lawrie: "Most times these injuries are anywhere from 3-6 (weeks) or 4-6. Depends on the person."

— John Lott (@LottOnBaseball) August 7, 2014

Shows what my memory is worth on a Thursday morning, this is Brett's third oblique problem.

Another big game takes place at the Rogers Centre this evening as the Blue Jays and Orioles wrap up their series with a decisive third game. The series finale will either push the Blue Jays to within three games of the division leaders, or Baltimore will stretch the gap to four games. The pitching matchup is pretty boring to be honest, with lefty J.A. Happ going up against Mexican Miguel Gonzalez. Unlike the starter Wei-Yin Chen from yesterday, Gonzalez has faced the Blue Jays a fair bit (nine times) in his three-year career thus far with Baltimore and has a 3.02 ERA against them.

As mentioned in the preview in April, Gonzalez has four solid pitches in his fastball, slider, curveball, and splitter. Against lefties he's become very reliant on a fastball and splitter combination to great effect, with a 35% whiff/swing rate with his split against opposite-handed hitters. Since there's not much more to say about the rather unexciting Gonzalez, let's just take a look at where the righty has given up his home runs this season. Very few home runs have been hit anywhere other than right down the foul lines and upon further inspection almost all of these homers have been pulled (righties hitting to left field and lefties hitting to right field):

Source: FanGraphs

Hopeful Lineup

1. Jose Reyes SS
2. Melky Cabrera LF
3. Jose Bautista DH
4. Dioner Navarro C
5. Colby Rasmus CF
6. Juan Francisco 1B
7. Munenori Kawasaki 3B
8. Ryan Goins 2B
9. Anthony Gose RF

Bullpen Usage

The Orioles have now won five straight series and nine of their last ten.*

The Orioles beat the Blue Jays 2-1 tonight to take another series and go 3-1 on their short road trip. J.A. Happ mostly shut down the offense for eight innings, but a big two-run homer from Caleb Joseph made the difference.

Happ had a 4.25 ERA going into this game, but he pitched well against the Orioles in June, allowing just one run in six innings. He was even better against them tonight with only five hits allowed in eight innings and 12 strikeouts. Seriously, Orioles. He's not that good. It's perplexing how the Orioles tend to shut down against pitcher that other teams handle easily, but since the O's won tonight we'll set that aside.

It's not that the Orioles didn't have chances to score. They had runners on base in each of the first three innings. Nick Markakis doubled to start off the game and Manny Machado was hit by a pitch to put two runners on with no outs, but the O's couldn't do anything with it. Chris Davis doubled with one out in the second and was stranded. And a Markakis leadoff walk and Nelson Cruz two-out single were wasted in the third.

But in the fourth, they finally got the best of Happ. With J.J. Hardy on second base, Joseph hit a no-doubt-about-it home run to left field. It's the fourth home run in as many games for Joseph, something that's only been done by two other Orioles catchers (Ramon Hernandez and Gus Triandos). No O's catcher has homered in five straight games, so I look forward to seeing Caleb make history tomorrow night.

The two runs were all that the Orioles would get, as Happ retired the next fourteen Orioles before coming out of the game after eight innings. Thankfully, two runs were enough. Starting pitcher Miguel Gonzalez didn't have his best night, but he managed to get through six innings. He only gave up four hits and two walks, but he had trouble putting batters away efficiently. Eight of the 24 batters he faced saw at least five pitches, and four of those batters saw between seven and ten pitches each.

Gonzalez got a lucky break in the fourth inning when Colby Rasmus hit a ball that went over the right-field fence for an automatic double with two outs. Danny Valencia was on first base and likely would have scored easily if the ball hadn't jumped the fence. But it did, so he had to stop at third. Gonzalez got Ryan Goins to fly out for the third out, stranding Valencia.

The only other trouble Gonzalez had was with Anthony Gose, who hit his own no-doubt home run to start the fifth inning. That cut the lead to 2-1, but MiGo retired the next five batters to end his night. His final pitching line was 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB 4 K, 1 HR. He threw 104 pitches.

The bullpen needed to pitch three innings without allowing a run for the Orioles to win, and they did just that. Andrew Miller, Darren O'Day, and Zach Britton each pitched a scoreless inning to close out the game for the Birds. Miller and Britton were perfect, and O'Day allowed one baserunner as he walked Jose Bautista. Ball four was a very close pitch that had me saying, "Come on, ump!" from my living room, but when I checked the pitch f/x, it was indeed a touch outside. Regardless, the walk didn't hurt anything as O'Day got the next batter easily.

With the win the Orioles again give themselves a five-game lead in the A.L. East. The Yankees won today so they are also five games behind the Orioles. The O's return home tomorrow to face the St. Louis Cardinals. The game will celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Orioles with throwback uniforms, Hall of Famers, a laser show, and hopefully another O's win.

*I'm counting the entire Nationals series as one, because I don't know how else to do it with the rainouts and such. If you count the one game on Monday against the Nationals as a series, it's six straight, but that just seems wrong.

The Blue Jays' former Cy Young winner, knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, will face the Tigers' Anibal Sanchez in Toronto.

Detroit Tigers (62–50) at Toronto Blue Jays (61–55)

Time/Place: 7:07 p.m., Rogers Centre

SB Nation blog:Bluebird Banter

Media: Fox Sports Detroit, MLB.TV, Tigers Radio Network

Pitching Matchup: RHP Anibal Sanchez (8–5, 3.37 ERA) vs. RHP R.A. Dickey (9–11, 4.03 ERA)

The Tigers are currently in first place, 2½ games ahead of the Kansas City Royals. The Blue Jays are tied with the New York Yankees, in second place, five games behind first place Baltimore, one half game behind the Royals for the final wild card spot in the American League.

R.A. Dickey's Cy Young season came out of nowhere in 2012, while pitching for the New York Mets. Dickey had been around the game, pitching for the Texas Rangers, Seattle Mariners, and Minnesota Twins. He developed and perfected the knuckleball, and was the only starting pitcher in the major leagues to use it as his primary pitch, and became the first knuckleballer to win a Cy Young award that season.

Dickey won 20 games in 2012, with five complete games, three shutouts, and struck out 230 batters while posting an ERA of 2.32 and a WHIP of 1.05. He started the All Star game for the National League and was given the Cy Young award, edging out Clayton Kershaw of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Mets decided to sell high on Dickey, despite a favorable contract for the 2013 season, trading him to the Blue Jays in a seven player deal. The Jays gave him a two year, $25 million contract extension, but he has struggled to keep his ERA under 4.00 since coming to the American League. He continues to be a decent mid-rotation starter, but not nearly the dominant pitcher that he was in his one year heyday.

Anibal Sanchez led the American League in ERA in 2013, but was over shadowed by a pair of Cy Young winning team mates, Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. Despite a rough month of July which saw his ERA climb to 3.37 for the season, he remains one of the best starting pitchers in the American League in 2014.

Sanchez has been victimized by poor defense and a bad bullpen, as indicated by the fact that his fielding independent pitching (FIP) of 2.72 ranks seventh in the league and best on his team. He has, at times, struggled to get past the sixth inning, seeing a sharp spike in hits allowed after six innings, 100 pitches, or the third time through the batting order. Bullpen avoidance has not been his strength this season.

Sanchez still maintains one of the best home run ratios in the game, while his strikeout and walk rates are down from last season. He doesn't allow many runners and keeps the ball in the park. He threw seven scoreless innings in his last start, against the Colorado Rockies, ending a stretch of games where he struggled to keep runs off the board.

Offensively, the Tigers and Jays find themselves near the top of the league in run production, ranking third and fourth in runs per game, respectively. They rank first and second in batting average and are co-leaders in on base percentage. The Jays' attack is led by All Stars Jose Bautista. Edwin Encarnacion, who is on the disabled list currently, is not expected to be back for another few days.

The Tigers have struggled to score runs since the all star break, with Austin Jackson traded, Torii Hunter out with a swollen left hand, and with J.D. Martinez and Nick Castellanos slumping badly at the plate.

Hitter to fear:Melky Cabrera is 10 for 21 in his career vs Sanchez, with a batting line of .476/.476/.476 for an OPS of  .952.

Hitter to fail: Jose Bautista is just 1 for 8 with a pair of strikeouts and a line of .125/.222/.125/.347.

Outlook

Sanchez needs to find a way to get more innings out of his work, and the Jays need to work the count and get into the meaty Tiger bullpen. The Tigers need Miguel Cabrera to carry the offense, with the absence of Austin Jackson and Eugenio Suarez, and J.D. Martinez missing in action.

Prediction

Tigers get to Dickey in a big inning, Sanchez shuts down the Jays and the bullpen scrapes out another save for Nathan.

This week's episode: "Lone Starlyn Suriel"... I think I need to go see Spaceballs.

There's just under a month left of the minor league regular season (time flies!) so there are just a few more Around The Nest episodes to go for the season. If you have yet to ask the Blue Jays' minor league radio broadcasters those itching questions, this is probably a good time to write them in the comments section below.

The link for this week's episode is right here. Tune live in this evening at 5 pm Eastern or download it at a later time to listen in.

Last week, I went to Manchester, New Hampshire to see the FIsher Cats play a four-game weekend series against the Reading Fightin' Phils, and managed to see both Daniel Norris's last start at double-A and Taylor Cole's first start at double-A. I'll let Bob Lipman tell you all about it on the show, but here was my scouting report on Norris after his start:

My favorite scouting report of the season. RT @Minor_Leaguer: @DanielNorris18 was #boss

— Jesse G-S (@jgoldstrass) August 3, 2014

This year, the Blue Jays have had two pitchers who travelled most of the way around (actually, up) the nest: Norris started in Dunedin, then moved up to New Hampshire, and was recently promoted to Buffalo, joining Kendall Graveman, who moved up three levels after starting his 2014 season with the Lugnuts.

My questions for the week are about Daniel Norris. To Bob: Did Norris find out about his promotion after the 10-hour trip to Erie? And do you know how he found out?  To Ben: I don't see him listed as one of Buffalo's starters this weekend (right now, Sean Nolin, P.J. Walters, and Raul Valdes are listed), so are there plans to move him to the bullpen to set him up for a potential September callup? Update: Ben reports that Norris will be making a start on Saturday.

To fill in the time between now and 5 pm, listen to last week's episode here:

Now it's your turn: what are your questions for the Around The Nest crew?

The Royals are a pretty flawed team, but so is everyone else they're contending against.

The Royals now sit alone in the second Wild Card position, but this thing ain't over yet. We have seven weeks of pennant-contending baseball left to play. Let's take a look at our opposition and our chances down the stretch. Here are the current second Wild Card standings:

Kansas City Royals (60-53)

Pythag Win-Loss (58-55)

Fangraphs Wild Card Odds: 15.3%

Baseball Prospectus Wild Card Odds: 16.7%

The Royals are certainly a flawed team with a pythag win-loss record that has them barely above .500. They have scored the sixth fewest runs per game in the league and they are dead last in the league in walks and home runs by a large margin. Their pitching is expected to regress quite a bit, and no other Wild Card contender is projected to get fewer WAR from its pitching staff the rest of the year than the Royals.

On the other hand, the Royals  have the fourth fewest runs allowed per game in the league, and the most total defensive runs in all of baseball. The hitters should improve from their underwhelming performance in the first half, and Fangraphs projects the Royals hitters to have more WAR the rest of the season than any other Wild Card contender except the Yankees. The Royals will also benefit from an easier schedule than their opponents. Another consideration is that the Royals 15-21 record in one-run games is the third worst in the league. Should that regress to the mean, the Royals could find themselves getting luckier breaks in one-run ballgames.

New York Yankees (60-54)

Pythag Win-Loss (54-60)

Fangraphs Wild Card Odds: 12.8%

Baseball Prospectus Wild Card Odds: 14.0%

The Yankees were a .500 team a few weeks ago, but winning six of seven against the Reds and Rangers catapulted them into the thick of the Wild Card race. The Yankees lineup actually scores fewer runs than the Royals per game, but that could improve with the addition of Chase Headley and better health from Mark Teixiera and Carlos Beltran. Masahiro Tanaka's injury however, remains a huge impediment, and barring a trade, the Yankees will limp along with a rotation that includes Chase Whitley and Esmil Rogers. The Yanks bullpen has been outstanding this year, but their fortunes may depend on whether they add another big starting pitcher down the stretch. The Yankees still have ten games remaining against first place Baltimore, seven against fellow contender Toronto and four games against the Royals including a one-game makeup on August 25.

Threat to the Royals: Low. The Yankees are old, with starting pitching issues. I don't expect them to be in it the last few weeks of September unless they make an impact move in August.

Seattle Mariners (60-54)

Pythag Win-Loss (66-48)

Fangraphs Wild Card Odds: 31.3%

Baseball Prospectus Wild Card Odds: 26.2%

Just before the All-Star Break, it looked like the Mariners might start to pull away with the Wild Card spot. They were 51-43, 2.5 games up on everyone else, and playing good baseball. Since then they've dropped 11 of 19 games, scoring one or fewer runs in seven of those games. They've since added outfielders Austin Jackson and Chris Denorfia to help an offense that is currently scoring the second fewest runs per game in the league. The Mariners have the best pythag win-loss record out of any contenders due to a pitching staff that has topped the league in run prevention, anchored by ace Felix Hernandez. But like the Royals, the Mariners have been awful in one-run games, going just 14-21. The Mariners still have home-and-away series left against the Blue Jays, Athletics and Angels, as well as series against the Nationals and Tigers. Fifteen of their last eighteen games will be against teams gunning for a post-season spot.

Threat to the Royals: High. The Mariners are similar to the Royals, with a better pitching staff and a worse offense, and with a General Manager fighting for his job. Look for Seattle to make a move to continue to bolster their offense, making them a threat to make the playoffs for the first time since 2001.

Toronto Blue Jays (61-55)

Pythag Win-Loss (61-55)

Fangraphs Wild Card Odds: 17.3%

Baseball Prospectus Wild Card Odds: 15.9%

The Jays are a markedly different ballclub than the Mariners and Royals. They get on base and mash the ball out of the ballpark, topping the league in on-base percentage, with the second-most home runs. The pitching is a bit inexperienced, but has been just good enough thus far, just below league average in runs allowed. The Jays have had a lot of injury issues, with three starters (Brett Lawrie, Adam Lind, Edwin Encarnacion) currently on the disabled list. If their young arms - Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison, Aaron Sanchez - come through, they could be a very formidable foe. They may also decide to bolster their thin pen with an August waiver trade. The Jays have a series with Detroit this weekend, then a road-trip that takes them to Seattle, Chicago (to play the White Sox), and Milwaukee. They end their season with fourteen straight games against potential post-season teams.

Threat to the Royals: High. Teams that can score runs are scary and when the Jays get their starting lineup back, their offense is a high threat. The young pitchers have performed thus far, and General Manager Alex Anthropoulos has been aggressive in the past to improve his club.

Cleveland Indians (57-58)

Pythag Win-Loss (58-57)

Fangraphs Wild Card Odds: 6.4%

Baseball Prospectus Wild Card Odds: 4.5%

The Indians have kind of hovered around .500 most of the year, but as recently as July 19 they were just two games out of a Wild Card spot. At the trade deadline the team dealt starting pitcher Justin Masterson and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, but the team didn't necessarily get much worse as Masterson was struggling this year and Cabrera was having a down season. Outside of ace Corey Kluber, the Indians have struggled with their starting rotation, although nearly everyone has a much better FIP than their ERA (thanks Ryan Raburn!). The Indians have an above-average offense, but not a great one. Any improvement due to regression by Nick Swisher and Jason Kipnis will likely be counteracted by regression by Lonnie Chisenhall and Michael Brantley. With the team in "sell" mode, don't expect the Indians to make a move to improve the club. The Indians get a nice upcoming stretch where 11 of 14 games are against the Diamondbacks, Twins, White Sox, and Astros which could improve their fortunes, and 13 of their last 16 games are against the Astros, Twins, and Rays.

Threat to the Royals: Low. The Indians are pretty much a .500 team with defensive issues who have mostly beaten up on bad teams like the Rangers, Red Sox, and Rockies (14-3 against those teams). They do have an easy schedule the rest of the way, but with them already four games back, it seems like a tough road to overcome for the Indians.

Sanchez was removed from tonight's game in the fifth inning having suffered what the Tigers are calling a right pectoralis strain.

Anibal Sanchez was pulled from tonight's game with the Toronto Blue Jays after suffering an injury to his right side. The Tigers later announced Sanchez has a right  pectoralis strain, with no word as to how long he may be out. He will be further evaluated on Saturday

Down 4-2 with two out in the fifth inning, Sanchez allowed a single to Munenori Kawasaki.  Sanchez made one pick-off attempt, throwing hard to first base. At that point, Detroit's right-hander began to stretch and arch his back, in what looked to to be an attempt at loosing up. Once he grabbed his lower right side, catcher Alex Avila realized his pitcher was in some sort of distress and called time.

Manager Brad Ausmus and trainer Kevin Rand were immediately called to the mound. Taking no chances, Sanchez was removed from the game and replaced by Blaine Hardy.

Post game, manager Brad Ausmus addressed the Sanchez injury. He will head back to Detroit on Saturday for an MRI and a "more concrete" diagnosis.

Sanchez has spent one lengthy stint on the disabled list this season, missing the first half of May with a lacerated finger.

Sanchez was not having one of his better outings, though he received little help from the Tigers' shaky defense. In 5 2/3 innings against the Blue Jays, Sanchez allowed four runs, three earned, on ten hits, walking one and striking out three over 93 pitches.