Ray takes a look at the recent average draft position (ADP) data from NFBC for outfielders, and advises to not buy into the Billy Hamilton hype, and consider the injury risk with Jacoby Ellsbury.
Today we take a look at the average draft position data for outfielders according to the ADP data from the NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship) courtesy of NESN.com.
Unlike the last few weeks, I am not including the Max and Min Pick data, as I had a real problem converting the table from the NESN site into Word, then into Excel then back into Word. There is probably an easier way to get their data into a clean table, but I have yet to find it.
In addition, I did not include the Fake Teams rankings for each player.
As you can see from the table below, the players names are in two different columns. I usually manually typed them in, but felt it would be too time consuming to type in 75 player names, so please accept my apologies for the looks of the table below.
Quick Thoughts
A few years ago, Blue Jays third baseman Brett Lawrie reeled in the love of fantasy owners across the internet, only to disappoint them in 2012. Well, I think we have another one of those hyped up players on our hands heading into fantasy drafts this season. His name: Billy Hamilton.
Hamilton is being drafted as the 23rd ranked outfielder this season, ahead of Jason Heyward, Carlos Beltran, Jayson Werth, Josh Hamilton, and many others who I would draft before Hamilton. Hamilton's ADP indicates he is being drafted in FIFTH round of fantasy drafts. That's just insane! At that price, people are drafting him assuming he will play 150 games and will steal 60+ bases. He very well could, but that comes with plenty of risk.
Another player I think is being drafted way too early is Yankees outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury. His NFBC ADP is 11.52, which is just too high for an injury-prone outfielder. Ellsbury, when healthy, is very valuable, but not first round worthy. Sorry, I just don't see it. He is being drafted ahead of Bryce Harper, Giacarlo Stanton, Yasiel Puig, Carlos Gomez, Jay Bruce, and several others who I would draft ahead of him.
The same can be said about Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig, as he is being drafted in the second round of most drafts I have participated in or reviewed. He has just over 100 games of major league experience and could be a bust candidate this season. While I hope that is not the case, as I am a Dodgers fan and own him at $2 in an NL only keeper league, it is a possibility.
Puig's teammate Matt Kemp is also a big risk this season. He will start the season on the disabled list, but is still being drafted in the early fourth round of most drafts, which might be too much risk for many to take. I see his ADP falling as the season approaches.
NFBC ADP Rankings - Outfielders
Rank | Player | Team | Pick | |
1 | Mike | Trout | LAA | 1.18 |
2 | Andrew | McCutchen | Pit | 4.43 |
3 | Carlos | Gonzalez | Col | 8.06 |
4 | Adam | Jones | Bal | 9.25 |
5 | Ryan | Braun | Mil | 10.85 |
6 | Jacoby | Ellsbury | NYY | 11.52 |
7 | Bryce | Harper | Was | 12.55 |
8 | Yasiel | Puig | LAD | 22.12 |
9 | Carlos | Gomez | Mil | 23.42 |
10 | Giancarlo | Stanton | Mia | 27.34 |
11 | Jay | Bruce | Cin | 30.57 |
12 | Alex | Rios | Tex | 34.42 |
13 | Justin | Upton | Atl | 39.78 |
14 | Shin-Soo | Choo | Tex | 39.96 |
15 | Jose | Bautista | Tor | 40.69 |
16 | Matt | Kemp | LAD | 47.99 |
17 | Hunter | Pence | SF | 48.98 |
18 | Matt | Holliday | StL | 54.11 |
19 | Starling | Marte | Pit | 54.8 |
20 | Mark | Trumbo | Ari | 63.45 |
21 | Wil | Myers | TB | 66.22 |
22 | Yoenis | Cespedes | Oak | 68.92 |
23 | Billy | Hamilton | Cin | 70.28 |
24 | Jason | Heyward | Atl | 78.17 |
25 | Josh | Hamilton | LAA | 78.43 |
26 | Jayson | Werth | Was | 94.64 |
27 | Alex | Gordon | KC | 95.81 |
28 | Carlos | Beltran | NYY | 96.85 |
29 | Domonic | Brown | Phi | 109.89 |
30 | Evan | Gattis | Atl | 118.29 |
31 | Alfonso | Soriano | NYY | 119.36 |
32 | Michael | Cuddyer | Col | 123.52 |
33 | Shane | Victorino | Bos | 124.44 |
34 | Desmond | Jennings | TB | 126.57 |
35 | Leonys | Martin | Tex | 129.92 |
36 | Curtis | Granderson | NYM | 139.94 |
37 | Coco | Crisp | Oak | 143.83 |
38 | Austin | Jackson | Det | 150.21 |
39 | Nelson | Cruz | Bal | 171.3 |
40 | Brett | Gardner | NYY | 175.27 |
41 | Torii | Hunter | Det | 183.01 |
42 | Alejandro | De Aza | 184.43 | |
43 | Michael | Bourn | Cle | 187.45 |
44 | Christian | Yelich | Mia | 187.73 |
45 | Carl | Crawford | LAD | 193.83 |
46 | Norichika | Aoki | KC | 194.75 |
47 | George | Springer | Hou | 195.84 |
48 | Khris | Davis | Mil | 198.02 |
49 | Will | Venable | SD | 199.53 |
50 | Ben | Revere | Phi | 206.82 |
51 | Chris | Carter | Hou | 210.54 |
52 | B.J. | Upton | Atl | 213.67 |
53 | Avisail | Garcia | CWS | 214.18 |
54 | Dexter | Fowler | Hou | 215.34 |
55 | Adam | Eaton | CWS | 218.21 |
56 | Michael | Brantley | Cle | 220.58 |
57 | Eric | Young | NYM | 226.06 |
58 | Kole | Calhoun | LAA | 231.46 |
59 | Angel | Pagan | SF | 236.36 |
60 | Josh | Reddick | Oak | 244.17 |
61 | Colby | Rasmus | Tor | 246.38 |
62 | Marlon | Byrd | Phi | 252.63 |
63 | Nick | Markakis | Bal | 259.47 |
64 | Rajai | Davis | Det | 261.81 |
65 | Oscar | Taveras | StL | 267.45 |
66 | Oswaldo | Arcia | Min | 271.24 |
67 | Denard | Span | Was | 274.3 |
68 | Melky | Cabrera | Tor | 288.24 |
69 | Peter | Bourjos | StL | 288.99 |
70 | Kelly | Johnson | NYY | 292.91 |
71 | Josh | Willingham | Min | 302.92 |
72 | Dayan | Viciedo | CWS | 307.16 |
73 | Junior | Lake | ChC | 308.28 |
74 | Michael | Morse | SF | 309.4 |
75 | Cameron | Maybin | SD | 311.67 |
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