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What's old is new again: Blue Jays acquire Liam Hendriks from Royals for Santiago Nessy

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A day after losing the seventh game of the World Series, the Kansas City Royals shipped off right-hander pitcher Liam Hendriks to the Blue Jays in return for what is expected to be a catcher. Hendriks was originally acquired from Toronto at the trade deadline along with Erik Kratz for Danny Valencia. The Australian starter was recently designated for assignment from the Royals to make room for Moises Sierra, so the return shouldn't be too large going back the other way. News of the deal originally came from Ken Rosenthal:

As Mike Wilner points out, Hendriks is out of options and will need to win a long-man job in Spring Training or risk being shipped off again at the end of next March:

In 32.2 innings with the Royals and Blue Jays this year, the righty had a 5.23 ERA with a FIP of 3.84. For the Royals, this means they ended up with Erik Kratz and half a season of Liam Hendriks for three years of Danny Valencia which is a little questionable, but they came within one run of the World Series so who are we to judge.

Update

The catcher going the other way is Venezuelan Santiago Nessy. The 21-year-old was once considered a possible catcher of the future, but his rise through the minor leagues has been slow and he spent 2014 split between Single-A Lansing and High-A Dunedin hitting a combined .231/.313/.332 with a single home run. He appeared on the Bluebird Banter Top 40 Prospects list prior to this season slotting in at #22.


Blue Jays pick up Andy Dirks and Jeff Francis

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The Blue Jays claimed outfielder Andy Dirks off waivers from the Tigers and signed Jeff Francis to a minor league contract.

Dirks,28, is a left-handed batter, he's played all 3 outfield spots in 3 seasons with the Tigers. In 297 MLB games, he hit .276/.332/.413  with 24 home runs and 100 RBI. He missed all of 2014 with a back problem.  Fangraphs has him at a 3.4 career WAR. He doesn't have much for batting splits, he has a .751 OPS against RHP, .721 against LHP. He could be a nice pickup. Dirks is his eligible for arbitration for the second time this off-season.

Francis, 33,  is a left-handed pitcher, born in Vancouver BC. He has a 71-80 record with a 4.95 ERA in 10 seasons, 240 games, 217 starts. His best stretch was from 2005 to 2007, when he went 44-32 over 3 seasons with the Rockies, with a 4.63 ERA in 99 starts. Last year Francis pitched in 12 MLB games split between 3 different teams, the Reds, A's and Yankees. He had a 5.85 ERA in 20 innings.

Blue Jays to play Reds in Olympic Stadium on April 3 and 4

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Since a report from Montreal's 98.5 FM's Jeremy Filosa way back in mid-August that the Blue Jays were playing two spring training exhibition games at Olympic Stadium, there have been multiple confirmations by both Toronto (Shi Davidi) and national (Jon Morosi) reporters. Now we have a semi-official confirmation of the event: the two games now appear on both the Blue Jays' and the Reds' April schedules, as noticed by the eagle-eyed Rob Silver:

As of time of writing, event details have not been made available on the evenko website. According to a story from Le Journal de Montréal, Paul Beeston and Alex Anthopoulos will be at the Bell Centre next Tuesday to announce it for the media. (Aside: by then the Blue Jays would have made their decisions on the contract options of Brandon Morrow, Adam Lind, Dustin McGowan, and J.A. Happ, so expect them to be asked about those.)

The great Tony Perez, who played three seasons in Montreal in addition to his 16 in Cincinnati, has confirmed that he will be attending the series.

Like earlier in 2014, two games will be played: a 7:07 pm evening game on Friday, April 3 and a 1:07 matinee on Saturday, April 4. We are just 154 days and 2 hours away from baseball's return to Canada.

Unlike some other teams in the league, the rest of the Blue Jays' spring training schedule has not been officially released. But looking at the team schedules that have been released we can pull out at least a handful of Grapefruit League games:

  • Mar 5: TOR @ BAL (night)
  • Mar 6: BAL @ TOR
  • Mar 7: TOR @ PHI
  • Mar 11: TOR @ BAL
  • Mar 13: BAL @ TOR
  • Mar 14: NYY @ TOR
  • Mar 15: TOR @ ATL
  • Mar 17: TOR @ NYY (night)
  • Mar 21: TOR @ PHI
  • Mar 25: TOR @ BAL
  • Mar 26: PHI @ TOR
  • Mar 27: DET @ TOR
  • Mar 29: BAL @ TOR
  • Mar 30: PHI @ TOR

J.A. Happ will make $6.7 million in 2015 as Blue Jays exercise contract option

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A decision has been made: according to Jon Heyman, Alex Anthopoulos has decided to take J.A. Happ to be his pitcher for 2015, picking up a $6.7 million club option that was placed on Happ's contract when he and the Blue Jays negotiated an extension in spring training 2013.

But Happ likely isn't thinking much about the extension right now. There are more important things on his mind. There is an even bigger "I do" coming later today, one that will be coming from Morgan Cawley, one that will be made before hundreds of family and friends instead of a few executives and his agent. (As an aside: according to Baseball-Reference, Happ's agent is named Jay Fee--his name basically promises that he will get money from the Toronto baseball club.)

You see, today J.A. Happ is getting married in Spring Valley, Illinois, just down the street from Peru, Illinois, where he was born and went to school (I've always claimed that Happ is the first Peruvian to pitch for the Blue Jays). We at Bluebird Banter sends our best wishes to the happy couple despite not receiving invitations to the wedding.

The 32-year-old left hander was acquired by the Blue Jays in mid-2012 in a trade with the Houston Astros for a bunch of players who still dominate the northern part of the Blue Jays Roster Tree Route Map. He was a starter for the Astros but was sent off to the bullpen when he first arrived in Toronto, a decision he wasn't very happy about.

He got some starts later that season but, in an offseason development that probably made him even less happy, the Blue Jays went out to acquire Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, and R.A. Dickey to complement Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero. J.A. Happ was out of a job--through the second-last week of spring training 2013 despite having a good spring--it looked like he was destined to be the ace of the newly affiliated triple-A Buffalo Bisons. He didn't hide his discontent with Jays management as we can see in this Blake Murphy piece.

Then, Ricky Romero happened. Soon after that, Happ found himself with a brand new two-year contract with a third-year club option, the one that was picked up today. Anthopoulos was asked why he pulled the trigger on the extension and he said, "we can afford to spend more now." Who knew that "now" meant literally right then and never again?

Happ was the Jays' fifth starter coming out of the gate in 2013 before being nailed in the head by a Desmond Jennigs line drive on May 7 down at Tropicana Centre. The awkward fall hurt his knee and that kept him from pitching in the big leagues until exactly three months later.

In spring training this season, Happ lost his starting job again, this time to Dustin McGowan. He was placed on the disabled list with "back soreness" that required an epidural. He was activated on April 17 and was again sent to the bullpen, and again he was not happy with that decision. But fortune struck and he was returned to the starting rotation when Brandon Morrow got injured. Happ got a chance to show off his new, faster fastball as well as a lower arm slot, and ended up with a pretty good season as the club's fifth starter, providing a steady six or seven innings every fifth day. Instead of replicating work, I'll let you go over and read Tom's recap on Happ's 2014. To summarize, Happ wasn't spectacular but managed to do exactly what a good fifth starter should do, being a consistent mediocre (other than a particularly good stretch in the summer which included a 12-strikeout performance).

But despite being guaranteed a $6.7 million salary for 2015, Happ will likely still have to battle for a spot on the rotation when he arrives in Dunedin in February. Although offseason moves and injuries are very possible, right now it looks like the first four slots of the 2015 starting rotation will be filled by R.A. Dickey, Mark Buehrle, Drew Hutchison, and Marcus Stroman. Happ probably has been pencilled in for the fifth spot, but will have to contend with a group of Sean NolinDaniel Norris, Kendall GravemanAaron Sanchez, and perhaps even Liam Hendriks as dark horses. And even if Happ wins the roster spot on Opening Day, he will be looking over his shoulder all season.

There probably won't be a lot coming back in return if the Jays decide to trade Happ this offseason; however, if one of the Blue Jays' pitching prospects is ready and Happ reprises his 2014 performance to start next year (and everyone else is healthy and doing well), the Blue Jays can dangle the southpaw in front of some pitching-desperate club for a useful piece.

Ultimately I think picking up the option will turn out well for the Blue Jays. The $6.5 million net savings (minus buyout) could've been allocated to other signings during these days of financial inflexibility, but I think by now most Blue Jays fans would understand the tremendous value of having good pitching depth and above-replacement-value fifth starters. He might not give the 2015 Jays the 1.6 WAR Steamer projects, but an open-market win is now worth north of $6 million so there is pretty good odds that Happ will be worth, or nearly worth, the $6.5 million net. Also, if Anthopoulos had declined the option, how can we deal with the loss of one of my favourite Jays parody Twitter accounts?

Poll
Are you happy with the decision to pick up J.A. Happ's option? (I think we know how haganenodan is going to vote!)

  379 votes |Results

Brewers acquire Adam Lind from Blue Jays

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The first baseman will head to Milwaukee in the first significant deal of the offseason.

The Brewers have acquired first baseman Adam Lind from the Blue Jays, according to a major-league source. According to Andrew Walker of Sportsnet 590, the Jays will acquire right-hander Marco Estrada from Milwaukee in the deal. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca was first to report that the sides were nearing a deal.

Lind, 31, had his option exercised by the Blue Jays on Saturday before the deal, and will make $7.5 million with Milwaukee next season. He fills a first base position that is currently vacant due to the departures of Mark Reynolds and Lyle Overbay, and makes it very unlikely that the team pursues a free agent like Adam LaRoche at the position.

In 96 games for the Jays last season, Lind hit .321/.381/.479 with six home runs and 40 RBI. He is a lifetime .273/.327/.466 hitter with 146 home runs, and has spent his entire career with Toronto since breaking into the majors in 2006.

Estrada, 31, was 7-6 with a 4.36 ERA in 39 games (18 starts) for Milwaukee last season. He is a fringe-starter who could provide rotation depth next season for Toronto or work as a long man out of the bullpen. Estrada is arbitration-eligible for the third time this winter, meaning that he will become a free agent after the season.

Blue Jays Trade Adam Lind to Brewers for Marco Estrada

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The Blue Jays picked up the option on Adam Lind and traded him to the Brewers for Marco Estrada.

Estrada is a 31 year old, right-handed pitcher. He split time between the rotation and the bullpen last year, for the Brewers, pitching in 39 games, starting 18. He was 7-6 with a 4.36 ERA. In 150.2 innings he allowed 137 hits, 44 walks with 127 strikeouts. The troubling numver was the NL leading 29 home runs. A guy that gives up bunches of homers, moving to the AL East? The was better in 2013, starting 21 games, with a 3.87 ERA, allowing 19 home runs in 128 innings. The low walk rate and pretty high strikeout rate are good signs.

The Jays also announced that they have picked up the options on J.A. Happ ($6.7 million) and Josh Thole ($1.7 million) while declining options on Dustin McGowan, Brandon Morrow, Sergio Santos (Santos would still be under team controll but will be non-tendered) and Justin Smoak. Smoak is still under team control and is arbitration eligible. No real surprises there.

Also the Jays tell us that Melky Cabrera has been given a Qualifying Offer of $15.3 million.

I'm slightly disappointed at the return for Lind, I was hoping for a good second baseman, but Estrada could help out our bullpen, with a career 8.5 strikeouts per 9 and a healthy 10% swing and miss rate.

Blue Jays bring back J.A. Happ, decline options on Dustin McGowan, Brandon Morrow, Sergio Santos

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The Jays were busy on Saturday, making multiple option decisions.

The Blue Jays announced their option decisions on Saturday, exercising their club option on left-hander J.A. Happ ($6.7 million) while declining their options on right-handers Dustin McGowan ($4 million), Brandon Morrow ($10 million) and Sergio Santos ($6 million). McGowan, Morrow and Santos will each become free agents immediately.

Happ, 32, was 11-11 with a 4.22 ERA in 158 innings as a starter for the Jays last season. The decision on his option could have gone either way, but the Jays likely figured that he would be worth more than $6.7 million per year on the open market. The eight-year veteran will become a free agent after the 2015 season.

McGowan, who turns 33 in March, will receive a $500K buyout from the Jays as a result of his option being declined. The righty has struggled with injuries over the last few seasons, and appeared in 53 games (8 starts) with the Jays last season while posting a 5-3 record and 4.17 ERA in 82 innings.

Morrow, 30, receives a $1 million buyout from the Jays and will be an interesting starting pitching candidate on the free agent market. The right-hander has struggled mightily in each of the last two years, posting a 5.63 ERA and 5.67 ERA in limited time each season, but could intrigue teams after posting a 2.96 ERA in 21 starts in 2012.

Santos, 31, gets a $750K buyout from the team after they declined his option in a no-brainer decision. The former White Sox closer was designated for assignment multiple times in 2014 while posting an 8.57 ERA for the Jays at the major league level and was unable to regain the form that led to his 1.75 ERA in 25.2 innings during the 2013 season.

Reading Room: MLB free agency season taking shape

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Plus: White Sox showed interest in Adam Lind and the Twins are close to a new manager

With free agency approaching, Major League Baseball teams can exclusively negotiate with their own free agents -- including qualifying offers -- through Monday. As soon as the clock strikes Tuesday, the market opens its doors.

The White Sox don't really have a need for the courtesy period. They declined Felipe Paulino's option, and they're probably saying goodbye to Matt Lindstrom, so Rick Hahn and the front office only has to keep track of what other teams are doing with their candidates.

Here's a list of notable, non-obivous moves that affected the free-agency pool over the last couple days:

Over at MLB Trade Rumors, Tim Dierkes posted his top 50 free agents list with predictions. He has the White Sox signing Victor Martinez (No. 6), Colby Rasmus (No. 20) and Luke Gregerson (No. 32), although it's worth noting he was only right on eight of 50 last year.

And in more lists, Grant Brisbee ranked the top 34 free agents, and Matthew Pouliout at Hardball Talk ranked 150.

Christian Marrero Reading Room

The rumors of the Blue Jays wanting to move Adam Lind were well-founded. Toronto dealt him to Milwaukee for homer-prone righty starter Marco Estrada. That seems like a good deal for the Brewers on paper -- even though Lind is probably best as a DH, he can play first base, and the Brewers desperately needed somebody there.

Since the Sox need lefty bats, they seemed to be a possible landing spot for Lind. Sure enough:

Which is interesting, because Estrada -- a 30-year-old coming off a bad season and entering his last arbitration year -- doesn't seem like all that much himself.

The Minnesota Twins' search to replace Ron Gardenhire is nearing an end, and in the most Minnesota Twins way possible. Not just because they're hiring an internal candidate, but also because of this quote (h/t @mighty_flynn on Twitter):

"He’s very aware of who he is and what he represents," the person said. "He’s not going to do anything that’s not proper and right and just. There’s a dignity about him."

Buster Olney lays out the Rays' case to pursue tampering charges against the Cubs in their hiring of Joe Maddon. It's a strange case, since Maddon said he wouldn't have opted out had the Rays not informed him of his right to do so after former Tampa Bay GM Andrew Friedman left for Los Angeles. But that would mean Maddon's agent is bad at his job, and they're still doing great together. Also, Theo Epstein went out of his way to set up an alibi in his statement about the process.


This weekend only made things more unclear

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Thanks to the Blue Jays deciding to make all their news on busy weekends, I never really got the chance to digest all of this weekend's moves until recently and things still aren't clear in my head. Over the course of the past fews day while I received the constant news alerts on my phone of options picked up and favourite players traded or bought out I really only acknowledged the changes quickly before carrying on with the day. The return of Marco Estrada for Adam Lind had me racking my brain for the answer to the question of if Estrada was one of those good yet relatively unknown Brewers pitchers or not. The answer, as I summed up back when the team faced him in July, is that he isn't one of those pitchers and he actually couldn't be any less of a good fit for a ballpark like the Rogers Centre. Most certainly not as good of a fit as Adam Lind was on this baseball team.

Many people around here assumed that the decisions made with regards to the contract options would begin to make it a little more clear in terms of what direction the team was planning to take this offseason. Unfortunately the transactions completed by the Blue Jays did very little to signal any intentions, especially when  textbook cases of contradiction start to come out like this one:

Assuming these are truths being told, then if Adam Lind's contract option was for slightly less money it still wouldn't have mattered and one of the best hitters in the league against right-handed pitchers would have been dumped. The reconfiguring of the roster thus far has included adding a similar player to Lind in Justin Smoak and adding another reliever who could be a starter (bringing the total on the team to about 14), while doing very little to solve the already existing weaknesses in the team.

To avoid this sounding like rage in the first week of the offseason, obviously the team is nowhere near being done 'reconfiguring' the roster and multiple more important moves will be made in the coming months. But after the moves completed this weekend, the attempt at creating roster flexibility looks to have mainly featured trading away an excellent platoon bat for cost-savings, while acquiring a reliever that can also start just hours after declining an option they held on a pitcher that filled the exact same role this year for about the same amount of money.

Financial flexibility hasn't really been achieved and roster reconfiguration hasn't exactly occurred either so it's not gotten much clearer where the team is headed. Some of the quotes coming from the front office are bordering on making it sound like a quick rebuild, while others signal an intention at clearing as much budget room as possible to make a larger move. Either way, these moves won't be the last ones made this offseason and they won't be the most important either. Three fan favourites are gone but relatively speaking, nothing irreplaceable has been lost and at the very least a small amount of financial room has been made (enough to make a few more waiver claims). The future of the Blue Jays seems to be hanging in the balance this offseason and the first slew of moves hasn't seemed to quell anyone's fears. This should be quite the ride.

Blue Jays have had "internal discussions" about Russell Martin

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The Canadian-born catcher may be a fit for the potentially aggressive Jays.

The Blue Jays have had "internal discussions" about signing free agent catcher Russell Martin, according to Jeff Blair of Sportsnet.ca. Blair stresses that the Jays, who have been aggressive this offseason already in trading Adam Lind to the Brewers and making some waiver claims, could look to strike quickly in the free agent market.

Martin, who turns 32 in February, is expected to draw interest from multiple teams and eventually receive a multi-year megadeal on the free agent market. The Pirates are expected to offer him a $15.3 million qualifying offer in order to ensure draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere.

For the Jays, the Canadian-born Martin could offer an upgrade over Dioner Navarro, who is still under contract for another season and could be shifted to designated hitter. Toronto has created payroll flexibility by trading Lind and declining high-priced options on pitchers Dustin McGowan, Brandon Morrow and Sergio Santos, and could move a piece like J.A. Happ to create even more financial room.

Martin hit .290/.402/.430 with eleven home runs and 67 RBI in his second season in Pittsburgh. He has previous success in the AL East, having made the AL All-Star team with the Yankees in 2011 en route to a .237/.324/.408 line with eighteen home runs and 65 RBI that season.

J.A. Happ drawing trade interest

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The left-hander could be on the move this offseason.

Just a few days after the Blue Jayspicked up their $6.7 million club option on LHP J.A. Happ, opposing teams have contacted the Toronto about a possible trade for the left-hander, according to Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.

Happ's recently exercised option is the only remaining club option in his contract, meaning he will hit the free agent market following the 2015 season. Happ was penciled in to be Toronto's fifth starter in 2015, but the team has the depth to consider other options. One of those options is Marco Estrada, who was recently acquired from Milwaukee in a trade for Adam Lind. In 2014, Estrada posted a 4.36 ERA in 39 games for the Brewers, including 18 starts.

Another option could be topprospect Daniel Norris, who made his MLB debut in 2014. Norris began the season with A+ Dunedin, before rising through the system all the way to a brief, five-game stint with the Jays. For his 2014 season, Norris posted a 2.53 ERA over 26 games at three different minor league levels.

The trade market for Happ could involve many teams. Although he has never been a dominating starter, he is a classic innings-eater at the back end of a rotation. For the 2014 season, Happ posted a 4.22 ERA over 26 starts. Happ has played in eight big league seasons, pitching for three different teams: Philadelphia (2007-2010), Houston (2010-2012), and Toronto (2012-2014).

Introducing the 2014 SB Nation MLB Awards

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The SB Nation Baseball sites are running our own MLB Awards and, as always, we (well mostly I) need your help.

The awards are going to be:

  • the funnest moment of 2014
  • the most regrettable moment of 2014
  • the best defensive play of 2014
  • the most important hit of 2014
  • the best pitching appearance of 2014
  • the MLB team of the year

What is going to happen is every few days, over the next couple of weeks, we will put up a post asking you to vote on the best of these moments for the Blue Jays. A panel of SB types will pick the 5 of the best of the best and there will be a SB Nation wide vote on each category.

What do I need from you now? Suggestions for each of these categories (including gifs if possible). The first poll will be up later today.

What will the Blue Jays do with Marco Estrada?

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The trade of Adam Lind provided more questions than answers, and the biggest is what becomes of the team's newest hurler.

Like many Blue Jays fans, when I first heard the team had trade Adam Lind for Marco Estrada I was incensed.

Lind's ability to be a difference maker against right-handed pitching is well documented, and Estrada is a guy with an 89 mph fastball who has struggled with the home run ball. It didn't seem to make sense that the Jays would get so little for a guy who can be a middle-of-the-order presence for you on most days.

However, upon further review the deal seems more and more reasonable, even if it is miles away from making perfect sense.

The first thing to understand is that Lind's modest trade value. If we begin with the premise that the Jays didn't want to pick up Lind's option in the first place, leverage was already out the window. Additionally, for all of his righty mashing Lind has only put up 3.4 WAR since his bounce-back 2013.

At times he looks like a star, but his limitations in the field and against southpaws really brings his overall value down. The fact he has consistently struggled with back problems is also more than a little scary for prospective buyers.

Jeff Sullivan described Lind as "a roll of the dice" at this point in his career and considering he hit only six home runs last season and his production was driven by a .369 BABIP, it's an understandable assessment. Questions about Lind's power and health going forward are enough to make him a far less desirable commodity than people who look at his .321/.381/.479 line last season might assume.

As a result of all of these factors and more the return on Lind was Estrada, who is a pretty interesting pitcher, despite his serious case of gopheritis. Although last year was a disaster for the Mexican hurler, he owns a career K/9 of 8.45 and BB/9 of only 2.43, numbers not to be sneezed at. In fact, over the last three years the 31-year-old has the 21st best K/BB ratio in baseball.

He wields an impressive changeup that looks like this:

drto9.0.gif

And gets batters to whiff like this:

Estrada.0.gif

Ultimately, Estrada is a guy who can get whiffs and avoid free passes, but he seemingly can't avoid the longball, not an ideal profile for the AL East. So, what do the Blue Jays do with him? As it happens there are a lot of options.

1. Use him as a reliever

After the trade Alex Anthopoulos made it clear to reporters that this is Plan A if the season were to start today.

Right now, having exercised with Happ, we have our five guys based on how things ended last year with R.A., Buehrle, Stroman, Drew and Happ. We have five starters there. If the season were to start today, Marco would be in the bullpen.

For a variety of reasons it's lucky for the Jays that the season doesn't start today. It's not that Estrada would be a bad addition to the bullpen. Last season he posted a 2.89 ERA and 2.81 FIP in 43.2 innings as a reliever. In September he pitched 16.1 scoreless innings in relief holding hitters to a .113/.113/.132 line.

Estrada as a reliever works, but I'm not sure it passes the smell test. He made $3.3 million dollars last season and in arbitration and he can expect a modest raise to somewhere in the neighborhood of $4 million. Considering the way this team is pinching pennies, that numbers seems a bit steep for a middle reliever. This is what Anthopoulos had to say about McGowan's declined option for $4 million dollars:

When we did that contract, the option salary for $4 million, I know there are relievers that make $4 million, but that was based on him as a starter. Right now, that number was just too high for us."

While Estrada is likely a better bullpen piece than McGowan, the phrase "I know there are relievers that make $4 million" doesn't make it sound like that's a price AA is keen on paying for a middle relief arm. That brings us to option two.

2. Use him as a cheaper J.A. Happ

For the first time in quite some time it appears that the Blue Jays have a surplus of MLB calibre starting pitchers, and they might try to deal from that depth. This makes sense in that Happ and Estrada have been similar pitchers over the last three years.

Pitcher

IP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

ERA

FIP

xFIP

WAR

J.A Happ

397.1

8.06

3.46

1.16

4.51

4.18

4.14

4.3

Marco Estrada

417.0

8.37

2.20

1.42

3.97

4.06

3.78

4.5

The concept is logical, but it's also risky because the three-year window display here is very kind to Estrada, who excelled in 2012. Comparing the numbers from last season, using only Estrada's work as a starter, paints an ugly picture.

Pitcher

IP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

ERA

FIP

xFIP

J.A Happ

158.0

7.58

2.91

1.25

4.22

4.27

3.95

Marco Estrada

107.0

7.74

2.94

2.27

4.96

5.73

4.25

You know what you're going to get with Happ, but Estrada has a wider range of outcomes. He's very unlikely to have this kind of trouble with home runs again, but he'll probably have some trouble. As a result, it's hard to know whether he'd be useful as fifth starter. For almost $7 million in salary relief and the modest return they'd get from dealing Happ the Jays might be willing to find out.

3. Trade him

Given that Estrada's only real problem has been giving up home runs he might be appealing as a starter to a team in a big ballpark. It would be very interesting to see what a guy with excellent K/BB numbers and fly ball tendencies would do in a place like San Francisco or Pittsburgh. Given his relatively low price tag he could be a steal for a club in a home run suppressing park as a 4th or 5th starter. He's even flashed 3rd starter potential in the past during his great 2012 season (3.2 WAR).

It's possible that the Blue Jays like where they're at in terms of starters and don't fancy Estrada as a reliever at his price. Perhaps the long term goal was to get Lind's contracts off the books and take on no salary whatsoever. It's crazy to think that Estrada might have more trade value on the open market than Lind, but he's probably a fit with more teams. He's almost certainly a movable asset, even if he's a depressed one coming off his poor showing last year.

4. Non-tender him

This would only be if option number three fails. I think it's unlikely that the team couldn't find a home for the 31-year-old right-hander if they were shopping him, but perhaps it's possible. After all, he was considered a non-tender candidate in Milwaukee. That being said, this is a pretty far-fetched scenario.

In theory, there are more options available to the Blue Jays, but these four are really the most likely. The team could try to ship out Mark Buehrle and go with some combination of Estrada, Happ, and Aaron Sanchez on the back end, but trying to move Buehrle's contract would be quite the ordeal.

If I were a betting man I'd say that Happ gets moved and Estrada begins the season as the fifth starter. He would provide an intriguing, albeit risky, option, at least until Sanchez is deemed ready to start. At that point Estrada could go back to the bullpen and provide some useful middle relief.

With his impressive strengths and one devastating Achilles heel, Marco Estrada is a pretty perplexing pitcher. For now though, the most compelling thing about him is the options he gives the Blue Jays going forward.

Goodbye Sergio Santos, we hardly knew ye

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Perhaps one of the moves that flew under the radar this past weekend was the Blue Jays expected buyout of Sergio Santos for $750,000, instead of picking up his $6 million option. While his poor 2014 season sealed his fate as an obvious buyout candidate, there was once a time not too long ago when Santos was the closer on this team with a whole lot expected of him. Although he could still end up with the Blue Jays next season, in all likelihood he'll be signing with a different team for a much cheaper contract than the $3.75 million he made this past season.

As you'll recall, the righty was originally acquired by Toronto in the offseason before the 2012 campaign in exchange for righty starter Nestor Molina. Most people seemed to have liked the move since Santos was considered to be a future shutdown closer with his nasty fastball and wipeout slider combination. Molina never put it together with Chicago and has become a below average reliever in the White Sox farm system so nothing of much value was lost in the deal. Prior to being traded, Chicago signed Santos to a three-year $8.25 million contract which looked to be a possible steal if he did indeed become the high-leverage bullpen guy that everyone expected him to be.

Unfortunately, the thing that really killed any hope of Santos succeeding in Toronto was a long list of serious arm injuries. His first season with the Blue Jays in 2012 saw him make just six appearances in April before going down to right shoulder inflammation which later led to season-ending surgery. That was a big blow for Santos as he started the year in the closer spot and ended up being replaced by Casey Janssen who would obviously go on to make that role his own.

There was a still lot of optimism (or maybe it was just me) that Santos would come back in 2013 and nail down a back-end of the bullpen role, but it just wasn't in the cards. After just making five appearances in April where he looked quite good, Santos went down to a triceps strain which later led to surgery on his elbow which took him out of action until August. At this point most people were beginning to think that Santos was damaged goods and the Blue Jays might have got tricked into trading for a pitcher who didn't have an arm that worked like most arms are expected to work.

When Santos returned in August he pitched extremely well and held down the eighth inning role perfectly. In 24 appearances he allowed runs in only three of them and racked up 22 strikeouts over 21.1 innings. He was doing a whole lot of this to end out the 2013 campaign:

This got everyone with a fastball and slider reliever fetish (that would include me) mighty excited about what was going to come from Santos in 2014. The baseball gods decided to cut him a break at the end of Spring Training as well, when Casey Janssen went down with a back injury handing the closing job back to Santos. It was 2012 in reverse and Santos looked to have taken advantage of his opportunity in early April when he recorded four saves to start the year before being hit with a loss in an ugly appearance against the Twins. The train started to go off the tracks after that game as he started walking guys and giving up hits left and right. The end of April saw another very ugly appearance by Santos against the Royals in one of the worst games of the whole season for the Blue Jays. A few days later Santos had another three-run blown save and his time as the Blue Jays closer was officially over.

Not long after he lost his closer job, Santos hit the disabled list with more arm problems eventually returning to the team in mid-June with his eye on reclaiming the eighth inning role that he was demoted to before being injured. He pitched quite well before the train left the tracks again at the beginning of July and this time the train was derailed for good. He got DFA'ed and didn't return to the big league squad until late August where two bad appearances led to another DFA and demotion to double-A New Hampshire (he did not report).

The $6 million option seemed like it would possibly be picked up at the beginning of the season, but it became pretty clear midway through the season that Santos wouldn't be coming back to the team in 2015. Over the three years that Santos was a Blue Jay, he appeared in just 51.2 innings making $7.5 million plus the $750k buyout. This story could have had a different ending if the righty had been able to stay healthy during his time in Toronto because he clearly had the stuff to be a major league closer. Unfortunately for people like myself who enjoy nasty sliders, the past week has seen fan favourites in Brandon Morrow, Dustin McGowan, and the aforementioned Santos all leave the team never reaching their full potential. The chances of Santos returning to the Blue Jays are slim, but a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training would be a chance worth taking for Alex Anthopoulos if the opportunity arose. Unfortunately there is probably a handful of teams in the league willing to take a more serious gamble on Santos' health and we'll have to watch from afar to see if Santos can ever stay on the field and put it all together.

Blue Jays Year in Review: July

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July was a good month and it ended on such a great note. If only the season had followed suit.

June was rough and July started off the same way.

The Jays lost eight of 12 games heading into the All-Star Break, before exploding out of it with an 11-3 record to give the fan base the requisite amount of false hope it would need to survive a trying trade deadline.

Record: 15-11

A misleadingly normal record for a month of extremes.

Best Position Player (by fWAR): Melky Cabrera (1.1)

HR

RBI

BB%

K%

AVG

OBP

SLG

wRC+

3

17

9.6%

7.0%

.356

.417

.538

169

Melky Cabrera didn't set the world on fire with an awesome display of power, but he did simply refuse to strikeout. His elite contact rate and a some luck on balls in play (.369 BABIP) made him an offense force. I may be alone here, but I think it might be nice to have Melky back next year.

Best Pitcher (by fWAR): Marcus Stroman (1.1)

IP

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

ERA

FIP

xFIP

31.2

8.81

2.27

0.28

1.71

2.34

2.99

July was when Stroman really settled in as the best pitcher on the Jays. He had some good fortune in terms of balls staying in the park, but pitched absolutely brilliantly all month with hitters managing a meagre .193/.246/.246 line off of him.

The Team Hit Like... Starlin Castro

Player/Team

BB%

K%

AVG

OBP

SLG

wRC+

Starlin Castro

6.2%

17.6%

.292

.339

.438

115

Blue Jays in July

7.6%

17.4%

.281

.340

.430

114

Starlin Castro has taken a fair amount of flak for his defensive acumen and base running, but he's a pretty good pure hitter. When you have an entire lineup putting together a 114 wRC+ that's going to get you where you want to go more often than not.

The Team Pitched Like... Ryan Vogelsong

Player/Team

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

ERA

FIP

xFIP

Ryan Vogelsong

7.36

2.83

0.88

4.00

3.85

3.96

Blue Jays in July

7.69

3.00

0.83

3.90

3.71

4.02

We are talking back-of-the-rotation guy Ryan Vogelsong here, not playoff deity Ryan Vogelsong. The Jays were a bit better than the Giants hurler in July, and a 3.71 FIP is pretty respectable, but it's clear the bats were doing the heavy lifting over the course of the month.

GIF That Best Summarizes the Month

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I might need to change this the name of this section to "things Nick remembers vividly", because I don't think this really summarizes July. However, this was a big moment as Aaron Sanchez got his first career strikeout freezing Daniel Nava with a very pretty hook.

Given that Sanchez is the one of the "Lansing Three" that the Blue Jays kept, it would be really nice from a PR perspective if he was really good. So far, it looks like he might be.

This year Jays fans will probably get to see if he's ready to start in the big leagues at some point. It's not a given with his history of control problems and uninspiring minor league track record, but I can't look at this GIF and not give the man the benefit of the doubt.

So concludes part four of the "Blue Jays Year in Review" series. As promised it has come at very random intervals, and considering how awful August was, there's no hurry to give that month a second look.


Astros Dallas Keuchel wins AL Gold Glove Award

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Dallas Keuchel received mainstream recognition yesterday for his fielding from the mound with his first Rawling's Gold Glove Award.

Dallas Keuchel received mainstream recognition yesterday for his fielding from the mound with his first Rawling's Gold Glove Award. This was the eight Gold Glove in the Astros organization and the first pitcher to receive the award.

There were two other finalists for the American League Gold Glove which included Mark Buehrle and Felix Hernandez. This is also Keuchel's second award for his fielding this season. Just last week he was awarded the Fielding Bible Award for pitchers. The Fielding Bible Award is a more sabermetric friendly award as it is decided among baseball experts that includes the likes of Bill James and Doug Glanville.

Keuchel was one of the only 12 qualifying pitchers to make one error or less this season. He was one of four pitchers to reach mark while pitching at least 200 innings, joining the Indians RHP Corey Kluber, Blue Jays LHP Mark Buehrle, and Mariners RHP Felix Hernandez. Keuchel lead the league in total chances (66) and assists (47), while he ranked fourth among AL pitchers in putouts (18). Keuchel led all Major League pitchers with 10 defensive runs saved (per Baseball Info Solutions), and allowed only one stolen base all last season.

The Gold Glove is decided by the ML managers and coaches within the same league. This is significant recognition for Keuchel as stat heads and coaches agreed that Keuchel stood out defensively.

Tack another mark on the board for the awesome-ness that is Dallas Keuchel.

Arizona Fall League update: RHP Tyrell Jenkins

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The 2010 first round draft pick is primed to climb the organization ladder in 2015.

The Arizona Fall League provides minor leaguers with a stage in which they can enhance their prospect status. Despite a rough outing (3 IP, 5 H, 3 BB) yesterday, St. Louis Cardinals minor league right-handed pitcher Tyrell Jenkins has been doing just that. Though he was not named to the league's All-Star team, his performance suggests otherwise.

GSERAIPHERHRBBKBAA
51.7720.11941814.253

First and foremost, when looking at these numbers, the sample size of five abbreviated starts must be taken into consideration. The ERA is fantastic, especially given the amount of offense in the Fall League (five of the six teams have team ERAs above 4.20). For perspective, his 20.1 IP is fifth most in the league, and his corresponding ERA (1.77) is the lowest of any pitcher with at least 20 IP (Mark Appel: 21.0 IP, 3.43 ERA). The amount of hits (19) and walks (8) he has allowed can be worrisome, but much of this was negatively inflated by his one rough outing (yesterday). Could his strikeout percentage be a little higher? Absolutely, and this is definitely something to keep an eye on as his development progresses.

A few highlight videos via MLB Prospect Portal

Six pitch strikeout of Addison Russell (K pitch: breaking ball)

Prior to 2014, Russell was rated the number seven prospect in all of baseball. He was not much of a problem for Jenkins here.

The strikeout hammer in GIF form (via @mstreeter06)

Feel free to watch this over and over again. Pay close attention to the height of the ball roughly half-way to home plate and then again when it was caught by Cody Stanley. Nasty.

Five pitch strikeout of Dalton Pompey (K pitch: changeup)

Of note, the 21-year-old switch-hitting Pompey saw big league action (43 plate appearances) last season with the Blue Jays, so he should have at least some experience with quality changeups. This doesn't seem to be the case when looking at the last two swings of this at bat. Jenkins's ability to throw his fastballs and changeup from virtually the same vertical release point (as you will see below) provides the deception of this pitch.

Four pitch backwards K ofTony Renda(K pitch: breaking ball)

Despite losing a fastball on the first pitch, Jenkins rebounded by throwing three straight strikes and painting a hard, sharp breaking ball on the outside corner for the backwards K. An inside fastball followed by an outside breaking ball is a perfect example of the set-up pitch concept.

Limited, but still intriguing PITCHF/x data available via BrooksBaseball

When looking at the following information, please remember that Harry Pavlidis and Dan Brooks, the brains behind BrooksBaseball, have yet to apply park corrections to Arizona Fall League PITCHF/x data. Also of note, only two starts (121 pitches) by Jenkins have been tracked by the system, so sample sizes must be taken into consideration. With all that being said, the present PITCHF/x data is very promising.

PitchFrequencyVelocity (MPH)Dragless H. mov. (in.)Dragless V. mov. + gravity (in.)V. release point (ft.)
Fourseam43.80%93.57-9.33-14.415.92
Twoseam16.53%93.56-13.50-16.725.91
Changeup22.31%84.74-10.77-20.825.94
Curveball17.36%82.152.87-41.105.82

There are a handful of things that stand out from this sample size of PITCHF/x data. Jenkins has mixed his pitches extremely well, throwing non-fastballs roughly 40% of the time. Though his fastballs' average velocities are not necessarily overpowering at 93-94 MPH, Keith Law stated in this ESPN Insider article that Jenkins was throwing "93 to 96 MPH with good downhill plane" when the writer was in attendance on October 10th. It is safe to consider 96 MPH overpowering, especially if Jenkins is able to set up his fastballs with the devastating curveball and potentially plus changeup we saw in the videos embedded above.

Jenkins has significant movement (both horizontal and vertical) on each one of his pitches. This already can be seen in the videos provided above and is reinforced by Law's usage of "downward plane" in his brief scouting report. The drop-off in velocity on his changeup from his fastball fits the desired range perfectly. Finally, as Jenkins has stressed and as many scouts have stressed as well, the righty needs to focus on producing a "repeatable delivery."  The vertical release point data shows that he is well on his way to being successful with this. His fastball release points are virtually identical, and his changeup is not all that far off, either.

2015 outlook

Barring any physical setbacks, specifically related to his surgically-repaired right shoulder, Jenkins will likely start 2015 with Double-A Springfield. I don't expect him to be there all that long, and a 2015 arrival to the bullpen of Busch Stadium is a very real possibility. Long-term, however, he will provide much more value as a starting pitcher, especially if he is able to hone in on the command of his offspeed pitches.

Baseball America's Top Ten Blue Jays Prospects

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Baseball America has posted their Blue Jays Top 10 Prospects (we will wait until January to post our top prospects list, mostly because I hate putting up the list and then having guys traded away).

Their top 10 are:

1. Daniel Norris, LHP

2. Aaron Sanchez, RHP

3. Jeff Hoffman, RHP

4. Dalton Pompey, OF

5. Franklen Barreto, SS

6. Max Pentecost, C

7. Roberto Osuna, RHP

8. Richard Urena, SS

9. Miguel Castro, RHP

10. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP

Last year's list was:

1.Aaron Sanchez
2. Marcus Stroman
3 .D.J. Davis
4 .Mitch Nay
5 .Franklin Barreto
6 .Daniel Norris
7 .Roberto Osuna
8. Alberto Tirado
9. Dawel Lugo
10. Sean Nolin

So quite a bit of change over. Stroman 'graduated' off the list. Davis, Nay, Tirado, Lugo and Nolin fell off the list.

Our two first round picks in the 2014 draft (Hoffman and Pentecost) jump on the list, as does our second round pick Sean Reid-Foley. I am kind of surprised that Osuna is in their top 10, after missing most of the year after Tommy John surgery. He did pitch 9.1 innings in the AFL, allowing 17 hits, 10 runs, 4 walks with 10 strikeouts. I wouldn't read much into that, he's still recovering, but I would drop him a few spots because of the missing season.

Dalton Pompey had a better time in the AFL, he hit 283/.358/.417, with 8 steals, 4 doubles and 2 triples.

Other Jays that played in the Arizona Fall League:

Dwight Smith, Jr. hit .383/.452/.500 with 3 steals in 7 games.

Jon Berti hit .178/.315/.244 with a home run and 3 steals in 14 games.

Sean Nolin pitched in 5 games, had a 4.05 ERA, allowing 11 hits, 5 walks, 2 home runs, with 14 strikeouts in 13.1 innings.

Arik Sikula pitched 7.1 innings, in 7 appearances, with a 2.45 ERA, allowing 8 hits, 1 walk with 3 strikeouts.

Baseball American had this to say about the system:

Toronto boasts nearly major league-ready starters in Norris, right-hander Kendall Graveman and left-hander Sean Nolin-though the bulk of the organization's potential impact talent is concentrated at the lower levels. Competing in the extremely difficult AL East, Toronto's hope of ending the playoff drought at 21 seasons will rely very heavily on its recent influx of home-grown pitchers.

Blue Jays will host Reds in Montreal next spring

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Baseball will be back in Montreal once again, with the Blue Jays hosting the Reds for a pair of spring training games.

The Blue Jays played the Mets in a pair of exhibition games last spring. That wouldn't normally be worth noting, but these games took place in Montreal, a city bereft of Major League Baseball since the Expos headed south to become the Nationals for 2005. As those contests drew 96,000 people this past spring, Baseball and the Jays will give it another go next spring, this time against the Reds.

The two teams will meet in Montreal on April 3 and 4 at Olympic Stadium, and there will be a little extra special something thrown in the mix. Hall of Famer and former Reds and Expos first baseman Tony Perez will be on hand to to be honored, while his fellow Cooperstown citizen and former Blue Jays second baseman Roberto Alomar will get the same treatment. Former Jays' manager Cito Gaston will also be in Montreal as part of this ceremony.

The same questions abound this time as last, about whether this is Major League Baseball just giving Montreal something to enjoy at a stadium that's already built and capable of hosting baseball, or if this is just the lead-in to something bigger for the next time a new home is needed for a team in a struggling market. The latter might not be the point, but if Olympic Stadium keeps drawing well for spring training games, it certainly won't hurt their cause.

Thursday Bantering: Howie Kendrick rumors

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Ben Nicholson-Smith tells us that the Blue Jays have interest in Howie Kendrick:

Howie Kendrick is definitely worth monitoring, as the Blue Jays have placed multiple calls on his availability this year. He'd be a major upgrade for the Blue Jays (OPS+ of 116 since 2011) and he's set to earn just $9.5 million in 2015 before hitting free agency. The Angels are willing to listen on Kendrick, who can block trades to four unknown teams. Their calls suggest genuine interest, but it's worth keeping in mind that the Blue Jays call on a lot of players this time of year.

Alex calls on everyone, I'm sure he has multiple calls on everyone. I'd love to have him. He's averaged a 4.0 WAR over the last 4 years. He's averaged a 5.6 UZR/150 over his career so he fits the bill of giving us good defense, not Goins level defense, but then Howie can hit the ball too.

I am getting the feeling that we'll be hearing lots of rumors over the next little while. We always say that, with Alex, if you hear hear the rumor, that it isn't true. But this one makes too much sense to ignore.

Jim Callis says that Dalton Pompey is the "best speedster in Arizona":

But none of them is the best speed-oriented player in the league. That distinction belongs to Mesa Solar Sox centre fielder Dalton Pompey, a Blue Jays prospect. He may not be as quick as Quinn, who is Jonathan Mayo's choice as the best speedster in Arizona, but Pompey has a broader base of tools and skills.

Keith Law posted his "Buyer's Guide" to outfielders (subscription required).

Under best values, he listed Colby Rasmus and Melky Cabrera, as well as Chris Young. For Colby he said:

He's one of the youngest free agents this year, and there's no physical reason he can't be a 4-WAR player again. It's mechanical, it's mental, maybe it's parental, but he still has the ability for a team with the ability to take on the risk that he's as punchless as he was in 2014.

For Melky:

We've seen some evidence that teams are wary of players with histories of PED use and suspensions, even though some of those players have performed well after returning and, in theory, are playing "clean." If that's true in Cabrera's case, it might make him a good target for a team looking for a buy-low guy on a short-term deal, as he shows solid contact rates without great power and probably will be limited to short-duration offers. The Blue Jays' making him a qualifying offer hurts his market, and he might have to return to Toronto for a year or wait for a team that already has given up a pick to decide he's worth giving up a second- or third-rounder too.

I kind of doubt Melky will have to 'return to Toronto'. I think someone will decide he's worth having giving up a draft pick to get, but then, him coming back to us on a one-year deal would be the best case scenario for the Jays.

Law's outfielder worst values are Nelson Cruz, Alex Rios and Yasmani Tomas.

Will Leitch at Sports On Earth ranks the Most Tortured Fans in Baseball and the Blue Jays fans only rank 14th. I don't know....I feel like we should be top 5 at least.

14. Toronto Blue Jays. Last title: 1993. World Series appearances: 2. Titles: 2. Now that the Royals have broken their streak, the Blue Jays have the longest current postseason drought in the four major North American sports. That they are only 14 in these rankings is proof of just how difficult it is to do these rankings every year, with so many tortured teams. Everyone has a claim to the throne.

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