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Munenori Kawasaki will be recalled by Blue Jays prior to Yankees series

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According to the Blue Jays radio broadcasts'  "Third Man in the Booth" Mike Wilner, Toronto will be recalling infielder Munenori Kawasaki to the major leagues before Tuesday night's game against the Yankees.

While Wilner was the first to give the news to the Toronto crowd, apparently this Twitter account had the news early:

Maybe more of us English-speakers should start following @MuneKawasakiWB, as it seems to be somewhat legitimately connected to Munenori Kawasaki, or at least a very good stalker:

Kawasaki spent most of 2014 with the Buffalo Bisons, save for a three-game stint with the Blue Jays in mid-April. The fan favourite has been hitting .276/.320/.388 in triple-A so far, with an impressive 11 doubles (and a triple) in 129 plate appearances. In his last 20 games (arbitrary end-point alert!), he has been hitting .300/.354/.417 with five doubles and five multihit games. Kawasaki re-signed with the Blue Jays on a minor league contract, but was returned to the 40-man roster when Marcus Walden was designated for assignment.

As Wilner mentioned, Adam Lind and Brett Cecil are both candidates to go on the 15-day disabled list. Lind fouled a pitch off his foot on Saturday and was removed from the game. An initial CT scan showed no fracture, so a diagnosis of a bone contusion (bruise) was announced. However, he was seen wearing a walking boot and using crutches on Sunday, and it was reported on the game telecast that he was still feeling pain. Cecil left the game a day earlier, stumbling off the mound with an apparent groin injury, which was later called a left groin strain. The National Post's John Lott spoke with Pete Walker who said that Cecil was feeling "OK--not great, but OK."

Steve Tolleson is currently the de facto backup outfielder so the addition of Kawaski into the lineup would be must helpful with infield flexibility. His left-handed bat means John Gibbons could put Kawasaki at second and returning Brett Lawrie to the hot corner over staying with Juan Francisco, who has been struggling at the plate and with the glove.


Aaron Loup is Losing Control

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Aaron Loup came into the 2014 season as a guy known for throwing strikes, this year it's been a different story.

There's a reason that John Gibbons took a liking to Aaron Loup from the moment the skipper returned to the Blue Jays.

Loup was the very definition of a reliable reliever: he didn't put guys on base, he kept the ball on the ground, and he rarely gave up the big hit.

To say that Loup is a totally different guy this season would be something of an overstatement given that he has still been a solid contributor to the Jays bullpen. With a 3.38 ERA, a 3.37 FIP and a WAR of 0.6 less than halfway through the season, it's not as if the southpaw has morphed into a completely useless scrub in 2014.

That being said, the difference between Loup's 2014 and his previous work is pretty significant.

Time Period

Innings Pitched

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

BABIP

Ground Ball %

ERA

FIP

xFIP

2012-2013

100.0

6.66

1.35

0.45

.292

58.5%

2.52

2.89

3.25

2014

32.2

7.59

5.34

0.00

.229

48.7%

3.38

3.37

4.22

The thing that jumps out here is the massive increase in walks. A BB/9 of 1.35 is absolutely fantastic, the work of control artist, while a BB/9 of 5.34 is the work of a guy like Edinson Volquez.

In fact, Loup has already walked more batters in 2014 (19) than he did in the previous two seasons combined (15). Because he has allowed a minuscule BABIP and no home runs, Loup has survived in 2014, but he hasn't excelled like he did in his first two seasons.

The most obvious explanation for this phenomenon is that Loup just isn't throwing strikes anymore, and to an extent that explanation fits the bill.

Time Period

Raw Strike Percentage

Zone Percentage

2012-2013

64.5%

48.2%

2014

61.0%

44.7%

There is no doubt that Loup is struggling to find the zone compared to previous years, and isn't compensating with significantly more swings on pitches outside the zone, resulting in a lower strike percentage. Looking at it visually it's apparent that the left-hander demonstrated excellent command in his first two years:

While appearing more wild this year...

Beyond overall command issues, Loup has also been pounding the bottom of the zone less, which could account for his dropping ground ball rate.

These pictures are informative, but there is something missing. That something is what's happening in three-ball counts.

Traditionally, the walk-averse Loup has attacked hitters in the zone when the count reaches three balls like so:

This year when it gets to a three-ball count Loup has been unable to attack in the same manner:

The pictures tell the story here, but the table below wraps up the quantification:

Time Period

# of Three Ball Counts

Pitches in the Strike Zone

Zone %

2012-2013

94

62

66.0%

2014

35

12

34.3%

It's difficult to tell how much of this is luck and how much of it is meaningful. Analyzing relievers is always a dangerous game due to small samples, especially when breaking it down to something like three-strike counts.

However, the difference here is so significant that it's worth noting. On a wider scale it's clear that Loup is struggling to find the zone and with three balls that issue has been much, much worse.

I'm not one to explain this phenomenon by attributing it to a mental hurdle to overcome or some kind of lack of "clutchness" on Loup's part when he really needs a strike. More likely, the reliever has struggled to put his pitches where he wants them all season and the frustrating inability to command his arsenal has just reared its ugly head at the most inopportune times.

What this is more than anything is a sign that the southpaw is struggling with not only command but basic control. We know that he's throwing fewer strikes and walking more batters, but what this three-strike count information tells us is that even when Loup is really targeting the zone to avoid walks, he's been missing consistenly. This is a symptom not the disease.

It's unclear exactly what the disease is, it could be mechanical, mental or Loup fighting through some kind of nagging injury. (Note: I am not trying to start some kind of "Loup is injured" speculation, if I was I'd have put it in the headline to attract page views).

What is clear is that if Aaron Loup doesn't get back to throwing strikes he'll be hard pressed to continue enjoying the kind of success he is accustomed to. More importantly, he could lose the prestigious title of "Gibby's Favorite".

That's a fate I wouldn't wish upon my worst enemy.

The Miami Marlins' young guns look dangerous

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Miami is a lot better than expected this season, and it's their young players that are doing the job.

Like any season, 2014 has its share of surprise players and teams. We are only in mid-June so there is some small sample size wackiness, but even the skeptics are beginning to believe in some of this year's breakouts. Even wait-and-see types are starting to concede that there might be something to this Dallas Kuechel fellow, and that the Tampa Bay Rays are probably no longer a good World Series pick. Among the unexpected twists and turns of the year has been the rise of the Miami Marlins.

The Marlins are not a powerhouse team by any means but sitting at 35-34 entering today's action, they are only one game back from the top of the NL East. To be fair the NL East has been a fairly weak division this year, but the Marlins are in the mix and that is a surprise.

When the Marlins traded their veteran core to the Blue Jays prior to the 2013 season in exchange for prospects it seemed like it would be a long time before they would be competitive, or even respectable. Last year Miami went 62-100 and put together an offense that was pitiful and quite literally painful to watch. There were some promising performances from pitchers, particularly Jose Fernandez, but it wasn't as if the team looked on the brink of big things. No one could have reasonably expected 2014 to be their year.

To be fair, it probably won't be.

Down an ace and with an offense that is probably over-performing, it is hard to see the Marlins making a run this season. That being said, the fact that they are in a position to is rather astounding.

The reason for this isn't exactly rocket science and Jeff Sullivan laid it out pretty clearly in his recent post for Fox Sports. The offense has improved drastically, and now that this team can score some runs they can win some games.

What's interesting is their ability to do it with young players. Since Miami made their blockbuster deal with Toronto, it was expected that they'd go young, the fact that they've been able to be both young and good is the story here.

Usually, to some degree, you have to choose whether your team is going to rebuild and be young and inexpensive, or try and win now and be older and more expensive. That is incredibly far from being a hard and fast rule, incredibly far, but the basic premise holds. It's hard to win without at least some proven commodities and when you trade away veterans for prospects it usually means your window of contention is a few years down the road.

For this reason being old and good is fine, being young and not-good is fine, but being old and bad like the Philadelphia Phillies is disastrous. The Marlins have gotten younger, but performed well, bringing them dangerously close to the Holy Grail of being young, inexpensive contenders. That's the dream, especially when you have a particularly miserable owner.

Words like "young" and "good" are awfully imprecise, especially in the context of analytics. So, in order to give a sense of the way Miami's young guns have performed I will define "young" as 25 and under and measure goodness by WAR.

It's an oversimplification to be sure, but we're merely painting a picture here. The table below shows the Marlins WAR from position players and pitchers in 2014. They lead in both categories so the chart also includes the next best total from an MLB team to give some perspective.

Team

"Young" Position Player War

"Young" Pitcher War

Total War from "Young" Players

Miami Marlins

7.2

4.8

12.0

Next Best Team

6.0

4.2

8.2

The Marlins are lapping the field when it comes to getting production from young stars with guys like Marcell OzunaNathan Eovaldi and, of course, Giancarlo Stanton leading the way. Some of this has to do with raw quantity of plate appearances and opportunities for players 25 and under, but a lot of it is those players excelling. For a frame of reference, Miami's division rival the Mets have produced a total of 7.8 WAR as an entire team, so it's not like you get 12.0 WAR just for running guys out there.

As I mentioned earlier, 2014 is very unlikely to be Miami's year. However, given the potential this team is showing their year is coming, and possibly sooner than was widely believed pre-2014. Better yet, there is a chance that sustained success could be on the horizon.

If they hold onto this wave of talent that is. Given Jeffrey Loria's reputation, the threat of a firesale lurks around every corner. That being said, the Marlins are better than expected in the present, and giving the guys who are doing the damage they could be better than expected in the future. For a team that seemed completely irrelevant at this time last season, that's a pretty sunny outlook.

. . .

All statistics courtesy of FanGraphs

Nick Ashbourne is an Editor for Beyond the Box Score. You can follow him on Twitter at @Nick_Ashbourne.


minor lines, 6/16/14

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Monday highlight from the Giants' farm: Johneshwy Fargas reached base five times.

AAA: Fresno had an off-day
(their second of three scheduled off-days in June)

AA: Richmond had an off-day
(their second of two scheduled off-days in June)

A+: San Jose had an off-day
(their second day of their four-day all-star break)

A-: Augusta had an off-day
(the first day of their three-day all-star break)

ssA: Salem-Keizer defeated Vancouver 10-9 (12 innings)
(after trailing 9-1 entering the 7th inning)

Salem-Keizer: CF-LF Johneshwy Fargas: 3 for 5, 2B, 2 BB, SO, E
Salem-Keizer: LF-1B Craig Massoni: 2 for 5, 2B, BB, HBP, 2 SO
Vancouver: SS Franklin Barreto: 4 for 6, 2B, BB (IBB), 2 SB

Salem-Keizer: SP Ethan Miller: 4.1 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 5 ER, 0 BB, 3 K--3 WP

Batting leadoff, Fargas reached base five times.  A year ago he had a .393 OPB in 77 AB in the AZL.  Massoni, who last year had a .401 OBP in 125 AB in the NWL, reached base four times.  The Blue Jays' Barreto had four hits for the second time in four games.  The 18-year-old is hitting 11 for 18 (.611 AVG) to begin the year.

Miller, who made eight relief appearances last summer in the AZL, had an inauspicious first pro start in that he allowed 6 R on 9 H.  On the positive side, he was the only one of seven Volcanoes pitchers not to issue a walk as his six relievers combined for 11 BB.

R: Scottsdale begins its season on Friday

DSL: Gigantes lost to Red Sox 5-0

Dominican: DH Anthony Gomez: 2 for 3, BB, SO, SB
Dominican: SP Deiyerbert Bolivar: 4.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K--1 HR

The 19-year-old Gomez had an other multi-hit game, raising his AVG to .341.  With 3 BB, Bolivar had his shortest of three starts this year (4.0 IP).

Game #72 Preview: Blue Jays @ Yankees

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The Blue Jays roll into the Bronx to take on the Yankees in a nice little mid-week series the next few days. New York is currently second place in the American League sitting at 35-33, which is good enough for 4.5 games back of the division-leading Blue Jays. The Yankees have faced a few pitching injuries to players such as CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, and Michael Pineda so they've done pretty well grinding through with some lesser-known starters. Today sees the leader for AL Rookie of the Year in Masahiro Tanaka go up against fellow first-year starter Marcus Stroman. The Blue Jays faced Tanaka in his first major league start (the Blue Jays home opener) and he's only gotten stronger since then. Sitting at a ridiculous ERA of 2.02, Tanaka has a K-rate of 28.4% and a BB-rate of 3.9% and has already amassed a fWAR of 2.8 WAR. Aside from playing for the evil Yankees, the Japanese import has been an absolute joy to watch.

As we learned going into the home opener, Tanaka mainly throws a fastball, slider, and splitter with cutters, curves, and sinkers all making the occasional appearance as well. He throws the splitter fearlessly against hitters on both sides of the plate and no one has been able to touch it, leading to a whiff/swing rate of 48.67%. His slider is just as nasty against right-handed batters getting nearly the same amount of whiffs as the splitter. It's no surprise then that hitters are struggling so much against Tanaka, when they have to be prepared for his splitter falling off the table or the slider breaking down and away from them:

Brooksbaseball-chart__1__medium

This has to be one of the nastiest pitches in the league:

Tanakafslow.gif.opt__medium

via cdn.fangraphs.com

Hopeful Lineup

It's not 100% clear what the roster move will be before this series gets underway, but it seems the Blue Jays want Juan Francisco on the bench.

  1. Jose Reyes SS
  2. Melky Cabrera LF
  3. Jose Bautista RF
  4. Edwin Encarnacion 1B
  5. Brett Lawrie 3B
  6. Dioner Navarro C
  7. Erik Kratz DH
  8. Steve Tolleson 2B
  9. Anthony Gose CF

Find The Link

Find the link between Masahiro Tanaka and #55 of the Midland Rockhounds.

Game In A Sentence

A battle of rookies sees Stroman make his Yankee Stadium debut against the man with the nasty splitter and slider in Masahiro Tanaka.

Daily Yankees Predictions 6/17/14: Tanaka Time vs Toronto

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The Yankees are back home for some AL East division rivalry action. The Toronto Blue Jays are in the Bronx first to face off against Masahiro Tanaka. New PSA DP questions are here.

From now until the end of the month, the Yankees will face off against their AL East division rivals. First up are the AL East leading Toronto Blue Jays, who are ahead of the Yankees by 4.5 games. Winning this series would be a great opportunity to close the gap a bit. Thankfully, the Yankees will be starting off by sending Masahiro Tanaka to the mound tonight.

6/17/14 Daily Predictions & Fun Questions

1.How many innings does the Yankees starter pitch?
2.How many walks does the Yankees starter give up?
3.Combined number of strikeouts from both starting pitchers
4.Combined number of strikeouts from all relief pitchers
5.How many players does the opposing team leave on base tonight?
6.Name one Yankee who gets the most RBIs tonight
7.Name one Yankee you think will hit a home run tonight.
8.Best overall Yankee of the night?

Skin art: If you ever decided to get a tattoo, what would you get one of? If you already have tattoos, please describe them?

Planeteer Alert: EARTH! FIRE! WIND! WATER! HEART! Which ring of power would you want? (The Power Is YOURS)

Least favorite vegetable?

What popular song drives you nuts?

It's Tanaka Time, or Tanaka Tuesday. Whatever you want to call it, Tanaka is pitching tonight!

Let's Go Yankees

Steve Delabar not on Blue Jays lineup card, optioned to triple-A Buffalo

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Last night's reported recall of Munenori Kawasaki fuelled speculation that either Brett Cecil or Adam Lind would be placed on the 15-day disabled list; however when the Blue Jays beat saw the lineup card they realized that the one going was not the left-handed reliever or the bearded first baseman, but the bearded right-handed reliever Steve Delabar.

Delabar, who turns 31 in a month (as will Adam Lind), was an American League All-Star in 2013 but has has been much less effective this season. His strikeout rate is way down, his walk and home run rates are up, and his FIP is a pretty ugly 5.25 (xFIP is not much better, at 5.19).

At the time of writing, there was no detail of why Delabar is not on the lineup card. The speculation among the beat is that he has been placed on the disabled list. However, I would not be surprised if the Blue Jays had decided to option him to triple-A to work out whatever kinks he needs to before returning to the fold. Delabar still has two options years remaining.

UPDATE

The Blue Jays confirmed that Steve Delabar has been optioned to triple-A Buffalo. It's hard to see a player who was so successful just one season ago sent down like this, but maybe this move is for the best. His poor performance has meant that he has been appearing in fewer and fewer high-leverage situations. Quantitatively, his pLI (average leverage index) is down from 1.33 in 2013 to 1.12 this season and his gmLI (average leverage index when entering a game) is also down from 1.40 to 1.22.

The average speed of his fastball has dropped 1 mph since last year might be a sign of an injury, but Delabar believes that it is more mechanics. In an interview with the National Post's John Lott, Delabar seems to know what is wrong with his delivery (apparently he "[drifts] toward third base as he lifts his left knee to start his delivery" and then loses command and velocity when he tries to compensate). He isn't very useful as a mop-up guy for the Blue Jays so getting him to work on mechanics in the relatively low-stress environment of Buffalo may be better than doing so in the major leagues for a first-place team that hasn't made the playoffs in 20 years.

Last year, the "#RaiseTheBar" hashtag was used in a social media campaign to get Delabar into the All-Star Game. This year, #RaiseTheBar has a whole other meaning. We look forward to his return--and we hope he brings back the filthy stuff he had last year.

MORE UPDATES

The quotes from Alex Anthopoulos and Steve Delabar have started filtering in:

Jays get Tanaka'd

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The Blue Jays lost the opener at Yankee Stadium, running into some tough pitching.

Blue Jays 1 Yankees 3

Watching Jose Reyes hit a home run on the first pitch of the game injected Jays fans with hope. It was a false hope.

Beyond that moment, the only glimmer of life came of a Munenori Kawasaki triple in the ninth. Even then the hit led to a situation where Anthony Gose was the tying run with two outs. So... yeah.

A lot could be said about the Blue Jays bats cooling off, but it's hard to expect to do much off the trio of Masahiro Tanaka, Dellin Betances and David Robertson. New York's ace had his untouchable splitter going, fanning 10 Jays in six innings, and the Yankees bullpen pitched three scoreless innings of relief. When the game was said and done the Jays had only six hits (with two walks) and struck out 15 times. They had all of three hits after the first inning.

Many folks here would likely want to discuss the umpiring, as it was an unmitigated disaster, but it probably wasn't the difference in this game at the end of the day. That being said, Anthony Gose did strike out looking in the ninth on a pitch sequence that included no strikes. So it's not like it was inconsequential, it just seems like pitching was the biggest factor in this one. I will say that it made the game 97% more frustrating to watch. Some of the low strikes called were patently absurd.

From a pitching perspective Marcus Stroman just didn't seem to have it today. He did have some calls go against him, but he also seemed unable to put New York hitters away. The Yankees were able to foul off a tonne of his breaking balls and as a result his pitch count got ratcheted up in a hurry. The 23-year-old had two at-bats where he threw more than 10 pitches, which is one way to have a short outing. Even before he ran into trouble in the fourth his pitch count was in the 70's.

Ultimately he would fail to get out of the fourth allowing two earned runs on four hits with three walks and only two strikeouts. The damage was done on a bit of a cheap two-run home run off the bat of Brett Gardner which clanged off the foul pole in left field.

The Jays bullpen allowed only one run, but once the team was down by two this game felt over, which it was. Suffice it to say that if for some reason you PVR'd this game, there is no need to watch it.

Toronto extends its losing streak at Yankee Stadium to what seems like 16,589 but is probably only 11.

Jay of the Day: I guess Jose Reyes for the home run (.028)

Suckage Jay: Jose Bautista (-.104 and three strikeouts is always tough) and I'll throw Stroman one (-.088) for forcing the bullpen to work so hard.


Yankees 3, Blue Jays, 1: Tanaka too much for the mighty Blue Jays

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Prepare to be surprised: Masahiro Tanaka was really great again. And the offense didn't do very much.

It was "Tanaka Time!" in the Bronx again as your hero and mine, Masahiro Tanaka took on the big slugging first place Blue Jays and Marcus Stroman. It was a chance to bring the division leaders back to the pack a little and the Yankees did not let it slip through their grasp.

Things got off to a less than ideal start with the very first batter of the game. Jose Reyes started the Jays off right by smacking a leadoff home run to put Toronto up 1-0 in the first. Tanaka fought hard to get through the next two innings unscathed as the Blue Jays put runners on and worked up his pitch count, but he was able to make it out without more harm being done. The offense rewarded him for his tenacity in the bottom of the third when Brett Gardner hit a two run dinger into the foul pole netting in right to put the Yankees up 2-1. In the fifth the Yankees tacked on a third run courtesy of a single from Mark Teixeira that scored Derek Jeter from second base.

While it seemed for a while like Tanaka was struggling with command, it didn't help the Blue Jays any as he finished his six innings with only the one run allowed and ten strikeouts. There was no quarter for Toronto as Dellin Betances came on for Tanaka in the seventh and dispatched the Jays with ease over his two innings of perfect work. Betances gave way to David Robertson and he dealt with Toronto's hitters in much the same manner, working around a badly misplayed triple from Munenori Kawasaki by Gardner to close out the game for his 17th save. I think it's reasonable to say a Tanaka-Betances-Robertson formula is about as good as you're going to get not only for the Yankees, but in all of baseball.

It was tough sledding early on, but it still turned out to be another virtuoso performance from Masahiro Tanaka as he earned his eleventh win and inched ever closer to that All-Star Game start. Bonus difficulty points for being as good as he was against a team with the power and patience that the Blue Jays have. They got his pitch count up and smacked a couple of his mistakes, but Tanaka is proving to be both overpowering artiste and tough bulldog when it comes to pitching. If he doesn't wipe you away with ease he'll break you down until you finally succumb. It's an absolute joy to watch. The offense was as it often has been: sparingly effective. But they did just enough to get the win, so I suppose I can hold off on lambasting them for the moment.

Game two of the AL East showdown begins at 7:05 PM tomorrow. Chase Whitley and Mark Buehrle are your probables.

Box Score

Colby Rasmus activated from the disabled list, Anthony Gose optioned to triple-A

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Colby Rasmus is coming back
His hammies 'n hips were out of whack
Going the other way
Back down to triple-A
Is the guy who hit him in the eye sac.

Transactions in limerick may be absurd
But Anthony Gose is now back with the Herd.
Gary Allenson may not be pleased
But Blue Jays fans must feel at ease
'Cause they won't see him struggle as a bird.

With the triple-A Bisons Rasmus hit .136
I guess timing at the plate has no quick fix
On turf his injuries may just linger
Might be a while before his next dinger
But at least he'll hit better than Jayson Nix.

Tonight Colby played all nine in centrefield
We've yet to see the power his bat could yield
But he hasn't played as a Jay
Since they won on the 12th of May
I'm just glad he's close to healed.

Anthony's demotion was not a heartbreaker
Even though he covers ground by the acre
His numbers so far
Have been quite below par
He can't even blame Jordan Baker.

End_of_anthony_gos_medium

Around the Empire: New York Yankees News - 6/18/14

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CBS Sports | Dayn Perry: Masahiro Tanaka has been amazing in his consistency so far this season.

ESPN New York | Ian Begley: Brian Cashman discusses the injuries to CC Sabathia and Michael Pineda.

New York Post | Joel Sherman: The Yankees need to start hitting more home runs, otherwise they're doomed.

It's About the Money | Katie Sharp: It seems that pitchers have adjusted to Yangervis Solarte, but can he adjust back?

The Wall Street Journal | Daniel Barbarisi: Kelly Johnson has shared his first base glove with Brian McCann, Brendan Ryan, and Carlos Beltran.

It's About the Money | William Tasker: An interview with ex-Yankee Rudy May.

Fox Sports | Rob Neyer: A few interesting tidbits from Mariano Rivera's memoir.

An A-Blog For A-Rod | Brad Vietrogoski: The Yankees can show what kind of team they really are when they face off against the Blue Jays.

Game #73: Blue Jays @ Yankees

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After losing a tough game in the Bronx last night, the Blue Jays send staff ace Mark Buehrle to the mound against rookie Chase Whitley. The right-hander Whitley was a 15th round pick in the 2010 draft out of Troy University and was a reliever during almost all of his time in the minor leagues. It wasn't until this season that the Yankees made Whitley a starter and he responded by posting a 2.39 ERA in AAA Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. After CC Sabathia went down with an injury the Yankees called up Whitley and he's continued to surprise at the major league level. While he doesn't have dominating stuff, the Alabama native pounds the strike zone and limits his walks as well as always having a knack for keeping the ball in the ballpark. In fact, Whitley has gone four straight starts with New York without surrendering a single walk, which shows the type of control he has.

Whitley's stuff is pretty basic, sticking to fastballs, sinkers,  sliders, and changeups with the hard stuff sticking in the low 90's and his off-speed pitches hanging around the 85 mph marks. This means that the pitches he throws are going to come in at one of two speeds:

Brooksbaseball-chart__1__medium

The location of his pitches is something that's pretty easy to see graphically with the changeup staying low and arm-side, while the slider fades low glove-side. The fastballs are usually up in the zone, which might cause problems for Colby Rasmus in his return to the Blue Jays lineup tonight.

5950322014040120140617aaaaalocation_medium

via pitchfx.texasleaguers.com

Hopeful Lineup

This bench is getting really bad again.

  1. Jose Reyes SS
  2. Melky Cabrera LF
  3. Edwin Encarnacion 1B
  4. Jose Bautista RF
  5. Brett Lawrie 3B
  6. Dioner Navarro C
  7. Colby Rasmus CF
  8. Juan Francisco DH
  9. Steve Tolleson 2B

Find The Link

Find the link between Chase Whitley and the first non-cornerback defensive player picked in the 2005 NFL Draft.

Game In A Sentence

Chase Whitley and Mark Buehrle are going to pound the strike zone forcing the hitters to be aggressive.

Daily Yankees Predictions 6/18/14: A Battle of Whits

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Tanaka Time was once again glorious. Chase Whitley will look to once again follow up with a gem of his own as the Yankees face the Blue Jays in game two of this three game series. Also, Daily Predictions and Fun Questions coming your way.

Masahiro Tanaka. What more can be said about the man that hasn't already been said? Six innings, five hits, one run, two walks, and ten strikeouts on what would be a day where his command wasn't all there. Simply incredible.

6/17/14 Daily Prediction Answers

1.How many innings does the Yankees starter pitch?6
2.How many walks does the Yankees starter give up?2
3.Combined number of strikeouts from both starting pitchers12
4.Combined number of strikeouts from all relief pitchers8
5.How many players does the opposing team leave on base tonight?8
6.Name one Yankee who gets the most RBIs tonightGardner
7.Name one Yankee you think will hit a home run tonight.Gardner
8.Best overall Yankee of the night?Tanaka/Gardner/Johnson

Aaron Uno is happy to be back east. Better ants, supposedly. Meanwhile, he has some sweet sweet math for you. It looked like everyone was going to tie with the one correct Tanaka answers. But lo and behold, NoMahbles correctly answered the number of walks given up by Tanaka, netting him the victory with 2,000 points. Congrats.

6/18/14 Daily Predictions & Fun Questions

1.How many innings does the Yankees starter pitch?
2.How many walks does the Yankees starter give up?
3.Combined number of strikeouts from both starting pitchers
4.Combined number of strikeouts from all relief pitchers
5.How many players does the opposing team leave on base tonight?
6.Name one Yankee who gets the most RBIs tonight
7.Name one Yankee you think will hit a home run tonight.
8.Best overall Yankee of the night?

Name three of your favorite video game characters of all time

Legends of the Hidden Temple: Which team would you like to be on? Red Jaguars, Blue Barracudas, Green Monkeys, Purple Parrots, Orange Iguanas, or Silver Snakes?

Least favorite drink?

Name some of your favorite movies from the 90's?

Chase Whitley, blessed call up from the minors, pitches tonight for the Yankees. He will have a real test against the Blue Jays vaunted offense, but he has yet to look out matched by any team thus far. I would like that to continue on Whitley Wednesday.

Go Yankees Go Baseball

Kevin Kennedy: Pitchman for Baseball Events in Toronto

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Toronto may be known as a hockey town, but there are many people in the city who are still deeply involved in baseball in some way. Today we profile Kevin Kennedy from Seaton Village.

Sometimes, a brilliant idea may seem obvious in retrospect, leading to the question, "why hasn’t anyone thought of it before?" But what we don’t know is how many people have gotten a similar idea but failed to do anything with it. Many people can recognize problems, some can conceive of novel ideas to solve them, but ultimately only few actually try these solutions, and an even smaller number succeed.

Back in 2011, Kevin Kennedy recognized a problem while playing soccer with Ross Simnor, the owner of Opera Bob’s Public House: there was no good place in Toronto to watch a baseball game. So he thought about creating an event where, during the baseball season, Blue Jays fans can gather at a bar to watch an away game together with the sound on, and in the offseason, the same fans can escape the winter by watching vintage games and baseball films. And all over a glass (ok, glasses) of craft beer. He wanted to bring together the community of Blue Jays fans in Toronto.

Then he went to create the Jays Days Beer Club ("because it rhymed"), and Simnor hosted it at his Dundas-and-Ossington bar.

"In Toronto, you get a bad deal with our ballpark and the atmosphere, so the intention was to create a better atmosphere for game watching," Kennedy tells Bluebird Banter in an interview last month, "it’s very simple and very selfish on my part—I’ve been to Wrigley and other ballparks where the atmosphere was better so I wanted to create that environment [here]."

When Kennedy and some friends and family bought Tallboys Craft Beer House in the fall of 2012, Jays Days moved two kilometres north to the new establishment. There were some very well-attended Jays Days events, especially after Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos pulled off two blockbuster trades with the Marlins and the Mets that winter. The screening of Knuckleball, a baseball documentary featuring newly-acquired Cy Young award winner R.A. Dickey, attracted a standing room-only crowd. It was on a Thursday night in January when it was minus-13 degrees outside. Even Tim Langton, the man who introduces every player over the public address system at the Rogers Centre, was there to see what the new Blue Jay was all about.

"The baseball team I have no control over, so as an event planner, putting on an event where you don’t have control over the entertainment or product is scary."-Kevin Kennedy

Unfortunately, the new Blue Jay—in fact, all the new Blue Jays—ended up being disappointing in one way or another. The 2013 season, in which Toronto was viewed as World Series favourites by many, ended up being one of the most horrible seasons in recent memory. The subpar play on the field led to subpar attendance at Jays Days, particularly towards the end of the season.

Of course, that just led Kevin Kennedy to think of a new idea.

"We don’t have a solid fanbase—I mean, there is a hardcore solid fanbase—but there isn’t that ‘win-or-lose we’re gonna be there’ Toronto Maple Leafs fanbase," Kennedy said, "so Jays Days is very much a vulnerable event based on the success or failure of the team.

"I was always thinking about a way to create a baseball event that wasn’t vulnerable to the success or failure of the baseball team. The baseball team I have no control over, so as an event planner, putting on an event where you don’t have control over the entertainment or product is scary."

That thought was mulled over the 2013 offseason and by the start of the 2014 season, it had been formed into PITCH, a series of talks about baseball loosely based on the very successful "idea spreading" TED Talks (in fact, the official tagline of PITCH is "Think TED Talks with grass stains"). PITCH is focused on baseball and the people who are involved in the sport rather than on the Blue Jays. Of course, being a Toronto event, the Blue Jays are mentioned quite often, but they are not what the events are centred on. Kennedy’s aim was to create a baseball-themed event where he is able to manage the entertainment and content.

Through a combination of his personal network and cold emails, Kennedy was able to assemble a solid lineup of speakers for the first PITCH, including the National Post’s John Lott and Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi. It was loosely structured, the speakers each made a short presentation before opening the floor to the approximately 100 fans in attendance to ask questions and join in the discussion. Unlike the typical questions heard on PITCH #2 guest Mike Wilner’s Blue Jays Talk post-game show, the questions asked at PITCH were mostly intelligent and well thought-out. Kennedy was not surprised by the type of fans who came out that Monday night in April.

"When I thought about who I was going to book and what I was going to charge and when I was going to do it, it sort of works as a natural filter. You have to actively go to a website to buy tickets, it’s on a Monday night, there are no players, so it sort of filters out anybody that is not very interested in whatever the topic of the day is. These guys really care and they really want to be involved in a conversation."

"I don’t mean to filter out the casual fans or the obnoxious fans," Kennedy was careful to add, "the location, the venue, it’s not by accident—it appeals to a certain group of people."

What made these PITCH events really stand out were the conversation and the interaction between the speakers and the audience. The first three were held in a brick-and-wood events room at the Centre for Social Innovation, there was no stage that separated the speakers from the crowd. The most sophisticated equipment was probably the microphones in the speakers’ hands, or maybe a digital video projector. There was no electronic queue for questions, the attendees just raised their hands.

"I like events that are not too produced, don’t have too much of an agenda. I like an underproduced event. Maybe it’s because I don’t have a huge budget for high production, but allows for people to, at once, feel comfortable in the environment and they can look around and say, ‘look, there are 100 people here, we’re all in the same boat, I’m not afraid to ask a question.’"

The reaction from the first event was very positive—Lott and Davidi did a fantastic job talking with the fans about both the 2013 season and the one that had just begun. Their response to the fans' questions were nuanced and informative.

"It was really important to get guys like Shi Davidi and John Lott [for the first PITCH. I lucked out getting them first because they set the tone for the rest of them," Kennedy recalled.

He credits them for building PITCH’s credibility, allowing him to secure Canadian sportscaster Dan Shulman to appear at the second PITCH. Sitting at the front with Mike Wilner, the voice of ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball told stories and spoke with fans for an hour-and-a-half. A team of Blue Jays beat writers, from the seasoned (the Toronto Star's Richard Griffin and the Globe and Mail's Cathal Kelly) to the relatively new (TSN's Scott MacArthur and the Star's Brendan Kennedy), were at PITCH #3 to talk about life on the beat and why they continue to speak with players despite formulaic answers.

"I haven’t been this excited about an event in a long time. This event, and the feedback I’ve gotten, and how honest this event is. It requires very little marketing, it’s been almost just word-of-mouth spread."

When asked about scaling up PITCH, Kennedy was reluctant to go too far beyond 200 attendees in order to keep the feeling of intimacy. After all, going back to the soccer pitch in 2011, his idea was to build a community of people who are enthused about the Blue Jays and baseball.

"The core element of PITCH is that you can get an uncensored view and that accessibility to people, and not only to the people who are speaking—the guy beside you too. It’s that community that draws us together."

"Without Jays Days there would be no PITCH," Kennedy pointed out, "because it exposed me to this community of a little bit more sophisticated fanbase. It’s also more co-ed, and I like that aspect of it instead of being a boys’ club."

At the beginning interview he was asked the question: "Who is Kevin Kennedy?" He thought about it for a bit and answered that he is an entrepreneur who likes to create things from scratch, he is involved in the music industry, he is an event planner, and he helps out at his bar. Looking in the past, he used to work at a bank, he taught in Taiwan, he wrote for The Hockey News. It wasn’t until the end of the chat when he was able to focus an answer to that initial question.

"To go back to your question—Kevin Kennedy is a community builder. I build communities around ideas and initiatives. I have good resources and I’m not afraid to use them. I’m trying to draw people together and to have an impact on this city. Not some kind of huge impact, but I want to leave this city, whenever I do leave, better than I found it. Successful or not, any events around baseball and bringing us altogether will make everybody happier and make an impact on people— a very subtle impact—but I think it’s important."

Having a publicly-accessible series of interactive talks about baseball is a brilliant idea, one that any of us could have thought of, but it took someone like Kevin Kennedy to come by and make it a reality. And now, we’ll see how successful it gets.

The fourth PITCH event will be held this Thursday, June 19 from 7 to 11 pm at 918 Bathurst Street in downtown Toronto. PITCH #4 will feature Grantland’s Jonah Keri, Sportsnet’s Michael Grange, theScore and Drunk Jays Fans’ Andrew Stoeten, and the Toronto Star’s Morgan Campbell. Tickets are $15 and quantities are very limited.

Visit www.pitchtalks.ca for more information and videos of past PITCH events, including segments featuring Dan Shulman and Mike Wilner. On Twitter you can follow PITCH (@PitchTalks) and Kevin Kennedy (@KevinBKennedy).

Yankees 7, Blue Jays 3: Brian McCann breaks out

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The Yankees' new catcher finally showed signs of life with a couple big hits and five RBI as a big seventh inning helped take down the Blue Jays and clinch a series victory.

Well, Brian McCann needed a game like that. The seven-time All-Star has gotten off to a dismal start with the Yankees, batting just .220/.278/.345 through his first 63 games in pinstripes. Tonight though, he bounced back in a big way, driving in five of the Yankees' seven runs in a 7-3 victory over the Blue Jays, their remarkable 15th in a row against Toronto at Yankee Stadium.

The Yankees had a tough task at the start of the game with veteran Mark Buehrle on the mound, off to one of the best starts in his 14-year career. However, the Yankees got on the board right away in the first when Brett Gardner led off with a single to right and Derek Jeter reached on an error by third baseman Brett Lawrie. Two batters and two outs later, it looked like they might let Buehrle off the hook, but Alfonso Soriano laced a single to right, scoring Gardner and giving the Yankees an early 1-0 lead.

The game stayed quiet until the fourth, when Toronto struck back against rookie starter Chase Whitley. Jose Bautista led off with a single to left and one out later, Lawrie was drilled on the left hand (he would later leave the game). Whitley fanned Juan Francisco, but Dioner Navarro and Colby Rasmus followed with back-to-back RBI singles, plating two runs and giving Toronto the 2-1 advantage. That lead did not last; Carlos Beltran began the bottom half of the fourth with a single, and McCann then smoked a Buehrle pitch to the short porch. It was the power stroke the front office envisioned from McCann when they signed him, and it gave the Yankees the lead right back at 3-2. Whitley labored through five innings and 95 pitches, but he stayed effective by only allowing two runs on five hits and a walk.

Seeking some insurance runs in the seventh inning off new pitcher Chad Jenkins, the Yankees loaded the bases on three hard singles. Although they blew an out when Jeter popped up a bunt with none out and Gardner on first (sigh), the Yankees managed to push across a run anyway. Ichiro Suzuki pinch-hit for Soriano with the righty on the mound, and Toronto manager John Gibbons countered by bringing in Brett Cecil. The southpaw couldn't find the strike zone though, and he walked Ichiro to bring home the Yankees' fourth run. While Beltran squandered a chance to bring home a run with an out, McCann ensured that the threat of a big inning did not go to waste. He tattooed Cecil's pitch to right center field, where Rasmus tried to make a great diving catch but missed. That cleared the bases and put McCann on third with a three-run triple and a five-RBI game. It wasn't just a good game for McCann either, as every starter except Yangervis Solarte and Brian Roberts had a hit, and Gardner registered a four-hit game with two runs scored.

Adam Warren had pitched a perfect two innings of relief with three strikeouts prior to the rally, preserving the one-run lead, but since the Yankees now led by five, Joe Girardi tried to get an inning out of Jose Ramirez in the eighth. Back-to-back doubles from Melky Cabrera and Bautista with none out messed up those plans, and with the score now 7-3, Girardi elected to simply go for the kill with Dellin Betances and David Robertson. The Yankees' two-headed bullpen strikeout monster got the job done, striking out three over the last two innings and allowing just a walk.

With the win, the Yankees pulled within two and a half games of the Blue Jays for first place in the AL East, and they'll go for the series sweep tomorrow night. David Phelps will take on Drew Hutchison at 7:05 PM EST.

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Box score
Graph score


Injury News: Brett Cecil Heading To The Disabled List, Brett Lawrie Okay

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After trying to fight through a groin injury in New York tonight, Brett Cecil confirmed that he will be heading to the disabled list. Relieving Chad Jenkins in the seventh inning this evening, Cecil walked in a run and then gave up a bases clearing three-run triple to Brian McCann putting the game safely out of the Blue Jays reach.

Cecil originally hurt his groin five days ago in Baltimore and after some rest, attempted to give it another shot tonight. Confirmation of Cecil's confirmation came from Gregor Chisolm (among others):

If you're already frustrated with how the Blue Jays handle injuries, then don't read this:

Cecil hasn't exactly repeated his All-Star performance of 2013, but his FIP currently sits at a fantastic 2.29 so maybe a turnaround is in the works for the second half of the season. His BABIP in 2014 is .403, which makes you wonder which baseball god he angered this offseason.

If you're keeping score at home, that's both Blue Jays All-Star relievers (Cecil and Delabar) from last season off the active roster in the span of two days. A corresponding move has not yet been announced, but the 10-day waiting period does not apply to Steve Delabar since Cecil has been placed on the DL, making Delabar available immediately for the recall to Toronto.

In other injury news, Brett Lawrie thinks he'll be okay after taking a ball off the hand tonight (the 'stuff' is an energy drink can):

Brett Lawrie hurts hand as Blue Jays lose to Brian McCann and the Yankees 7-3

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Blue Jays 3 @ Yankees 7

The Blue Jays went into game two of this series looking to even up the series but good Yankees pitching shut down the Jays' offence and timely Brian McCann hitting led New York to a 7-3 victory. But possibly more costly than the loss was an injury to Brett Lawrie, leaving the second and third baseman "day-to-day."

Yankees starter Chase Whitley went through the first three innings only allowing two singles. Jose Bautista led off the fourth with a single before Edwin Encarnacion replaced him at first on a fielder's choice. Brett Lawrie then got on base in a more painful way, getting hit on the back of his left hand (the same hand he broke back in 2011) by an 83 mph change up, not being able to turn away fast enough. He looked to be in deep pain, but managed to stay in the game to run the bases. After a Juan Francisco strike out, Dioner Navarro singled on a Whitley changeup to score Encarnacion. Then the just-activated Colby Rasmus followed up with his own RBI-single to score Lawrie, who even slid into home plate to give Toronto a 2-1 lead.

Lawrie did appear on the field for the bottom of the fourth inning, but had no fielding opportunities. Steve Tolleson came in as a defensive replacement in the bottom of the fifth, although he was already on the on-deck circle for Lawrie in the top half of that inning. The good news for the Blue Jays is that Lawrie's X-rays came back negative, so he joins the growing list of "day-to-day" players on the 25-man roster. At least it is better than falling down a well.

Back to the game, Mark Buehrle and Yankee Stadium were not able to hold the one-run lead. After a leadoff single by Carlos Beltran that went just over Jose Reyes's reach, Brian McCann hit a shallow fly ball that landed into the second row of seats beyond the left field wall, some 348 feet from home plate. Of course, right before the home run Buck Martinez was talking about how easy it was to hit a home run out that way.

Buehrle completed six innings with 103 pitches, having given up two earned runs on six hits and two walks. His lone unearned run came in the first, when a dropped ball by Lawrie at third eventually led to an Alfonso Soriano RBI-single.

Toronto was still very much in the game heading into the bottom of the seventh, just down by a run. John Gibbons tapped Chad Jenkins to face the top of the Yankees lineup for some reason. Jenkins did not look good, allowing the Yankees to load the bases with three singles before Brett Cecil came in to walk Ichiro Suzuki to make it 4-1. The Blue Jays have already issued seven bases loaded walks this year, compared to 11 all last year.

But wait, they weren't done! Everyone's favourite fun-loving catcher Brian McCann came back up to the dish and tripled jussssssst past the diving Rasmus to make it 7-2:

Rasmus_medium

The Blue Jays started a rally in the eighth inning. Melky Cabrera started it off with a double to the right field wall, then Bautista knocked him in with a double down the right field foul line for his 1000th career hit. But then Joe Girardi put in Dellin Betances for a second night in a row. Betances iced the rally by first striking out Encarnacion looking with a naaaasssssty curveball then getting Tolleson to pop out into foul territory then striking out Dioner Navarro swinging. It didn't look like Navarro went around, but hey, the umpires have to show some respect for Yankee Stadium.

Closer David Robertson, who was brought in even though the Yankees held a four-run lead, finished the game with a 1-2-3 ninth. I guess the good news for the Jays is that Robertson and Betances are probably unavailable for the game tomorrow. With eight strikeouts tonight, the Blue Jays have now struck out 23 times so far this series (out of the 54 outs they've made).

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Game graph from FanGraphs.

Jays of the Day! No one was near the required numbers, but I guess I'll give Colby Rasmus an honourary mention for his RBI-single and that diving effort in right-centre on his first day back. I'll also give Jose Bautista an honourary mention for getting his 999th and 1000th career hits tonight.

Suckage Jays Edwin Encarnacion :-( (-.122 WPA), Brett Cecil (-.117), Munenori Kawasaki (-.104), Mark Buehrle (-.104), and Jose Reyes (-.093). I'll also give one to Chad Jenkins (-.073) for loading the bases. I feel bad giving Cecil one because he was still hurt, but he should've called for the trainer and the manager if he did feel something out on the mound. He is now off to the 15-day disabled list.

Everyone in the AL East won except for the Jays and the Rays, so Toronto, now just nine games above .500, is just 2.5 games ahead of New York and 3 games ahead of Baltimore. The Jays send Drew Hutchison out on the mound (yay, away game for Hutch!) against David Phelps tomorrow night at 7 pm looking to not extend their winless streak in Yankee Stadium to 16.

Home Runs May Come To Haunt Blue Jays Rotation

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The Blue Jays rotation has been far better in 2014 than 2013, but so far it has mainly come down to keeping the ball in the park.

To say that the pitching the Jays have received from their starters so far has been a pleasant surprise would be an understatement.

Going into this season It was clear that when healthy this team could hit, and the bullpen looked strong (though it hasn't been). As a result the biggest question marks lay with the rotation. Buehrle and Dickey were a year older, Hutchison and Morrow were very difficult to project and J.A. Happ was unfortunately J.A. Happ. For that reason Toronto went after Ervin Santana, although he ultimately landed with the Braves.

The 2014 rotation that looked downright sketchy at the beginning of the year has actually given the Jays some good innings and kept them in games all year long. That's far more than can be said about the group in 2013. However, when comparing the numbers it appears that the improvement may not be as profound as it appears.

Year

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

BABIP

Ground Ball %

HR/FB

ERA

FIP

xFIP

2013

6.99

3.02

1.36

.302

42.6 %

12.9 %

4.81

4.59

4.23

2014

6.82

3.25

0.93

.294

41.8 %

8.7 %

3.68

4.11

4.32

This rotation is striking out fewer batters than last year, walking more, and getting fewer ground balls, yet the results have improved. The reason for that is that they are suppressing home runs far better. This has led to a difference of more than a run in ERA, even though their xFIP is actually worse.

Now, xFIP has its detractors because it doesn't treat keeping balls in the park as a skill, but HR/FB tends to fluctuate a lot and it would appear as if the Jays are getting some luck in that department. The following chart shows the Jays current rotation's 2014 HR/FB compared to previous years.

R.A. Dickey

Mark Buehrle

J.A. Happ

Drew Hutchison

Marcus Stroman

Career HR/FB

11.3%

9.7%

10.0%

11.4%

8.7%

2013 HR/FB

12.7%

10.6%

7.7%

N/A

N/A

2014 HR/FB

10.6%

4.0%

12.7%

9.5%

8.7%

We don't know enough about Hutchison and Stroman to know where their norms sit, but Mark Buehrle seems likely to give up far more home runs down the stretch. R.A. Dickey may concede a few more and J.A. Happ seems like the only one who has perhaps been unlucky when it comes to giving up jacks.

Overall these numbers result in a rotation that is giving up a HR/FB rate of 8.7% against a league average of 10.5% for starting pitchers. That might not seem like a huge difference, but over the course of more than half a season it certainly can be.

Beyond that, the Jays play half of their games at the homer-happy Rogers Centre, and a fair amount more in small parks around the A.L. East. Given that information I would expect the Jays rotation to not come back to the MLB HR/FB average, but possibly exceed it. Fly balls tend to leave the parks this team plays in at a high rate and there probably isn't a reason why the Jays pitching staff would be immune to those park effects.

The way the Blue Jays rotation has been preventing runs from scoring has been one of the most important keys to the team's success. However, that run prevention is built on a shaky foundation of keeping balls in the yard that is unlikely to be sustainable.

This 2014 Jays squad has put itself in an excellent position to make the playoffs for the first time in over 20 years with an elite offense and solid pitching. That being said, the pitching may not as solid as it appears to be. Toronto would be wise to add another pitcher in order to maintain their lead on the putrid AL East.

Jeff Samardzija would be good Or Jason Hammel. Or Jake Arrieta maybe. You know, anyone on the Cubs.

Pick up the phone AA, this ride isn't going to last forever.

Note 1: Marcus Stroman's stats are his stats as starter


Note 2: Stats exclude last night's game

Jeff Samardzija Will Likely Be Traded. Where, And For Whom?

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The Shark is probably a goner after reportedly rejecting a contract extension.

These tweets from Jon Morosi of Fox Sports sum up the current Jeff Samardzija situation:

Unfortunately, I agree with Morosi's take. Theo & Co. are likely going to start being more aggressive in trying to trade Shark (and Jason Hammel, too, I'd think) with just 42 days left before the non-waiver trading deadline.

Personally? I think this is a mistake. Samardzija has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this year. He's clearly ramped up his level of performance and the team apparently agreed, by offering him a five-year deal. It just wasn't for enough money, given Shark's rejection, and I can understand that. The Homer Bailey comparison has been made several times, and I'm going to make it again. Bailey recently signed a six-year, $105 million deal ($17.5 million AAV) and this reported proposal was close to that ($17 million a year). You'd think the Cubs could have offered an option year, or a bit more money per year. Samardzija is having a much better year than Bailey and has a lot fewer miles on his arm.

Perhaps Shark wants Matt Cain money (six years, $127.5 million, $21.25 million AAV). Prior to this year, Samardzija wasn't even close to Cain's equal. This year, he's been far better. The Cain deal is too much, I think, but somewhere in between might be the right price.

The Cubs don't appear ready to meet it, and I wish they would. Because if they don't, they're going to have to spend more money to get equivalent production. And if you say "Max Scherzer," that's going to cost more, and at this moment, anyway, Shark is having a better year than Scherzer, too.

But it now appears inevitable now that Jeff Samardzija will be wearing the uniform of some other team come August 1.

Which team will it be? And who can the Cubs receive in return?

Normally, I'd ask BCBer Kevin Aumiller, who wrote so many detailed trade-related articles over the last year, to do this again. He's let me know he has to step aside from front-page writing due to personal concerns. I wanted to take this opportunity to publicly thank Kevin for his excellent work.

And also, to put out a call for any of you who would like to write articles of the type Kevin did -- about potential trade proposals, trade partners and looking at other teams' farm systems. If you're interested, drop me an email and we'll talk.

Just to briefly mention a few teams that have been linked to Samardzija rumors: The Royals, Blue Jays and Giants have been prominently featured in some online writing on this topic in recent weeks. If I had to pick one of those three, I'd say Shark is headed to the Royals. They're hot right now, they'd like to win and Dayton Moore is a GM that the Cubs might be able to fleece. Or maybe there's a "mystery team" -- there always seems to be, even if no such team acquires a player like this. Vote in the poll (maybe you think he'll stick around after all, that's one of the poll choices) and weigh in on this in the comments.

Poll
Who will Jeff Samardzija be pitching for after July 31, 2014?

  761 votes |Results

Michael Brantley should be a starter at the 2014 MLB All-Star Game

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He won't, but he should.

Michael Brantley is having a breakout season for the Indians, having already established a new career high with 11 home runs, and with a batting line of .323/.391/.519, which represents easily the best figure of his career in all three metrics. He has a wRC+* of 160, which ranks 5th among qualified hitters in the American League. He's also 9 for 9 on stolen bases and is 2.6 base running runs above average at FanGraphs, putting him 8th in the AL.

*wRC+ takes a player's hitting and adjusts for era and park factors, and scales things so that 100 is league average, and every point above or below 100 is 1% better or worse than average.

In short, Brantley has been one of the top players in the league so far.

When the first AL All-Star voting totals were released a couple weeks ago, Brantley was nowhere to be found among the top 15 outfielders. Last week he showed at in 9th place though, and this week he's up to 7th, with nearly one million votes. This can't be credited to Tribe fans getting out the vote at Progressive Field. For one thing, there aren't that many fans at Progressive Field; for another, the Indians were on the road all of last week, so there weren't any fans at Progressive Field. Brantley' climb seems to be the result of fans around baseball finally recognizing what a fine season he's having.

Brantley could rise a bit farther, but there's no chance he's going to reach the top three, because even 3rd place Melky Cabrera is ~500,000 votes ahead of him, and that's too wide a margin to make up. It's a shame Brantley won't overtake him, because starting in the All-Star game is exactly what Brantley deserves at this point.

Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, so one of the three outfield spots should belong to him (and it does, as he's second among all AL players with ~2.5 million votes).

There are four solid candidates for the other two spots:

  • Jose Bautista (TOR) - .312/.432/.540, 170 wRC+, 15 HR, 3 SB
  • Michael Brantley (CLE) - .323/.391/.519, 160 wRC+, 11 HR, 9 SB
  • Alex Gordon (KC) - .288/.368/.458, 131 wRC+, 8 HR, 5 SB

Gordon's hitting pales compared to Bautista and Brantley's, but he's one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball, a factor that shrinks (and some would say, overcomes) the offensive difference between them. Defensive metrics are not as accurate as offensive ones though, and I have a hard time with the idea that Brantley is below replacement level out there. I can accept that his range isn't great, but don't believe his arm should rate as poorly as it does, given that he's second in the league with 8 outfield assists already.

I don't want to throw defense out of the equation, but I tend to downplay the defensive metrics a bit when making these sorts of comparisons. I think Brantley is an average defensive left fielder, and while that's far short of what Gordon does, I don't think Gordon's edge there makes up the difference between the two of them on offense (a difference I am much more confident in, given the nature of measuring offense as compared to defense). For the same reasons, I'd put Bautista a bit ahead of Gordon too.

Gordon wouldn't be a bad choice at all (unlike the guy who's actually going to start, Melky Cabrera, who's vote total is a testament to the voting powers of Blue Jays fans and perhaps also to a growing indifference about PED stuff), and I wouldn't complain if he were the starting left fielder, but my outfield would be Trout, Bautista, and Brantley.

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