Add these names to the short list of free agent pitchers of interest to the Marlins: Francisco Liriano (7-10, 3.38 for Pittsburgh) and Brandon Morrow (42-43, 4.28 in eight seasons for Seattle and Toronto).
Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/sports-buzz/2014/11/pouncey-wants-eventual-shift-back-lots-of-fins-chatter-heat-problem-marlins-hot-stove.html#storylink=cpy
Francisco Liriano
Among all of the free agent starters, Liriano could be attractive to some low budget teams considering he made just $1 million last season. In 2014 with the Pirates, Liriano posted a 3.38 and 3.59 ERA and FIP, respectively, and logged 162.1 innings while making 29 starts. Despite the fact that Pittsburgh's inconsistent offense led to a 7-10 record, Liriano might accept a two or three year deal in an attempt to get a larger contract moving forward.
In the context of Miami's rotation, Liriano would fit well. He is a veteran left-handed option, and would likely even out a predominantly right-handed Marlins pitching staff. If Andrew Heaney makes the rotation out of spring training, Liriano may still be just the second lefty, assuming Brad Hand lands a spot on the roster by serving as the long man out of the bullpen.
While his 9.70 K/9 and 4.49 BB/9 rates in 2014 kept the Pirates competitive in most of his starts, among Liriano's best major league seasons was his 2013 campaign, during which he posted a 3.02 ERA and 2.92 FIP in 161.0 innings.
Liriano has been consistent with regard to the number of innings pitched throughout his career, and might be inexpensive and valuable to the development of Heaney and consistency of Miami's starting rotation.
Brandon Morrow
Toronto declined Morrow's $10 million option for 2015, making him a free agent. He may be a more expensive option when compared to Liriano, however the fact that Morrow spent most of 2014 on the disabled list with a torn tendon sheath should make him more affordable.
In the 33.1 innings Morrow was able to toss last season, he posted a 5.67 ERA and 3.73 FIP. Morrow's last full season came in 2012 with the Blue Jays, during which he posted 2.96 ERA and 3.65 FIP in 124.2 innings (21 starts). Walks have plagued Morrow throughout the course of his career, although his 2.96 BB/9 in 2012 might be the best indication of his potential when completely healthy.
Miami could take a chance on Morrow, but he may not be the club's primary choice. Should Morrow struggle to find the strike zone or stay healthy, the Marlins would be back where they are now, looking for an arm to fill a rotation spot.
Wade Miley Update
Jackson reported the Marlins' interest in Miley last week, and while he noted Arizona may not be tempted to trade him because of a lack of starting pitching depth, the Marlins might be willing to include Nathan Eovaldi in a potential deal.
The Marlins, seeking a veteran starter, also have discussed tradingNathan Eovaldi or a quality pitching prospect to Arizona for left-handerWade Miley (38-35, 3.79 in 3 1/2 seasons).
Read more here: http://miamiherald.typepad.com/sports-buzz/2014/11/pouncey-wants-eventual-shift-back-lots-of-fins-chatter-heat-problem-marlins-hot-stove.html#storylink=cpy
Eovaldi struggled at times in 2014, and while they did consider taking him out of the rotation at one point towards the end of the season, the Marlins appear confident he can become more consistent in 2015. Several teams are reportedly high on Eovaldi, and while trading a starter for another starter may appear illogical, Miley might be more durable moving forward.
Including Eovaldi alone in a deal may not be enough, in which case keeping the former Dodger and looking elsewhere to add an arm would likely be the most beneficial.
I went a slightly different direction than the other guys. My pick is Yasmany Tomas.
My reasoning?
When I first picked him it was before the Russell Martin signing and I thought the the Jays needed to make a huge splash to keep the 'cheap Rogers' crowd at bay for a bit. Of course, 20 seconds after the Russell signing, the 'cheap Rogers people were out in full force again, so I guess that reasoning was likely flawed. But I still like the idea of signing Tomas for other reasons:
He has power. A lot of power. A couple of years ago we we were swimming in power hitters. Now we have Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion but no one else that projects to give us more than 20 home runs. We only have Edwin and Jose signed through the 2016 season. Right now it is anyone's guess if they will be interested in signing extensions. Power isn't the be all and end all, but it is handy to have someone that fits into those middle spots in the order.
He's young, just turned 24, he's just going into his prime years, unlike most free agents who are looking at their prime years in the rear view mirror. It would be nice to spend money on an investment that grows in value, instead of the normal buying into a player whose value is depreciating. Tomas is actually a little bit younger than Anthony Gose and about 10 months younger than Brett Lawrie.
He wouldn't cost us a draft pick. I think that is worth a fair bit.
He plays left field (and apparently has the arm for right field) and we could use someone to do that. His defense might be just average or maybe slightly above average, but, considering the guys we've had in left field, over the past few years, average would look pretty good.
We could let Melky go and collect the draft pick, or sign Melky with the idea that he mostly plays DH.
There are downsides. Tomas would possibly need some time in Buffalo. Maybe half a season. He's not likely to be a high average hitter. Maybe .240 to.260, but with some walks and a lot of power. And you never know what coaching could do.
He won't come cheap and the team might have to ignore the 5-year rule to get him, but if you can't ignore that rule for him then I think you have a problem.
Also, he spells Thomas without the h and that's a almost a deal breaker, but I'll overlook it in this case.
It would be a risk, there is the chance that he wouldn't turn out to be the player that we hope he'll be. But then there is always the chance that any player you sign won't be the guy you are expecting. Ricky Romero looked to be the safest of safe signings. It think the reward is worth the risk. I think that if we are going to get back to the playoffs, we need to take some risks and have them pay off.
There are no rumors that the Jays are in on Yasmany, but then the Jays try to keep things quiet, a very irritating way of doing business if you are a blogger. We haven't paid a long of money for an international free agent in a long time. I think the last time we spent much money on an international free agent was back in 2010 when we gave Adeiny Hechavarria a big $10 million, 4-year deal.
So there you go Alex, you have your marching orders, get 'er done.
The 30-year-old Cabrera would figure to be a more costly option than Markakis. Cabrera seems to be in line for a deal north of $60 million, and he would also cost the Orioles their first round draft pick were they to sign him.
Of course, Cabrera has been quite a solid player in recent years, posting WAR totals of at least 3.0 in three of the past four seasons. He is coming off a two-year, $16 million deal with the Toronto Blue Jays, where he suffered through an injury-riddled 2013 season before returning to form this year. In 621 plate appearances this season, he hit .301/.351/.458 with a 125 wRC+, 54 extra-base hits, and 3.1 WAR. He has hit a combined .309/.351/.458 since the start of the 2011 season.
Last week there were some reports that Tampa Bay had made outfielder Matt Joyce available in trade talks and apparently a deal between the Rays and Rangers had come to the point of exchanging medicals before it broke down. As Jon Morosi points out in his tweet linked above, Joyce is pretty comparable to Jay Bruce except of course for the contract situation. Joyce, who is 30, enters his final year of arbitration in 2015 and will become a free agent after the season while Jay Bruce has at least two more years and $24.5 million left on his deal.
Joyce was an All-Star in 2011 in a year that ended with a fWAR of 3.5, but has cooled down in the past few years becoming a low batting average corner outfielder with power who is good for about 1.8 fWAR every year. For a guy that is likely to make $4.9 million in his final year of arbitration, the Blue Jays could certainly do worse.
Although the lefty hitter hovers around .250 in the batting average department his OBP is often nearly .100 points higher thanks to a career walk-rate of nearly 12%. He has sneaky power that usually is good for about 15 home runs every year, even if sometimes he doesn't make it look too graceful:
Even though the Rays are division rivals with the Blue Jays and Joyce has been a starting outfielder for four seasons, it seems that he has a knack for providing solid value while flying under the radar. I've never really taken note of his consistency and he appears to be a prototypical Rays player in every way.
In terms of defence, Joyce is not a Gold Glove contender, although over the course of his career he's been a much better left fielder (5.2 UZR/150) than right fielder (-1.5 UZR/150) which would suit the Blue Jays situation. When compared to Bruce, it looks like Joyce provides much more consistent defence in the outfield while the Reds player is subject to wild year to year swings with much higher variance.
In looking for a replacement to Melky Cabrera in left field, a player like Matt Joyce seems to fit the bill perfectly as his contract will be rather affordable and the asking price for one year of his services will certainly be much lower than what the Reds will demand for Jay Bruce. Tampa Bay doesn't have a lot of holes at this point, but they could use a back-up catcher and likely would ask for a mid-tier prospect as well.
Joyce has pretty significant splits and has begun to face lefties very little in Tampa, meaning that an outfield platoon may still be necessary with John Mayberry Jr. That begs the question of whether Joyce is a big enough upgrade over Andy Dirks to warrant giving up players for him. The answer really depends on whether the Blue Jays are comfortable with Dirks' inconsistency or would prefer the known quantity of Matt Joyce.
There's always a lot to discuss when two marquee free agents from the same division sign with the same team on the same day.
Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval are now both members of a Red Sox team that’s looking like a pretty good bet to not only climb out of the AL East cellar, but also perhaps reclaim the division title with a few more shrewd moves relating to a currently suspect pitching staff.
Flash back to Aug. 5, when the Red Sox were 49-63, owners of the third-worst record in the league, 15 games out of first place in the AL East and coming off a stretch of two wins in 13 games. At the lowest of low points for Red Sox fans, imagine what it would have done for their morale had they known about what was coming on Monday, Nov. 24.
That date might go down as a turning point in the team’s fortunes, or it might be one that leaves the Red Sox with two massive contracts that prove to be insufferable burdens for the next five years. (Or, more likely, it might produce a result somewhere in between. Yes, there is a middle ground.)
There’s a lot to process here: How much will these two new additions actually help the Red Sox? What does this mean for the Giants and Dodgers, and for the NL West as a whole? Are there long-standing implications from these two deals that will perhaps set some precedents going forward? If you like baseball as much as I do, you’ll enjoy diving into these issues, which I’ve done as best I could through the following words.
Sandoval's decision to leave San Francisco
Sandoval’s six-and-a-half years in San Francisco created a lot of memories that would have been tough for any player to walk away from. Practically speaking, however, the move makes sense for him. Yes, one could argue that no fan base in all of baseball loved a single player more than Giants fans adored Sandoval. And yes, Boston fans might not be so forgiving if Panda starts the season with a .177 batting average in April, as he did with the Giants this season.
But outside of that, Sandoval’s situation in Boston just might be perfect. He’ll play half his games at Fenway Park, the fifth-most hitter friendly park in the majors last season according to ESPN’s ballpark data, a nice transition from the sixth-most pitcher friendly stadium, AT&T Park. That’s not counting the good chunk of the other 81 games that Sandoval will play in the rest of the AL East’s hitter’s parks, namely Yankee Stadium, Rogers Centre and Camden Yards, while also eliminating Petco Park and Dodger Stadium—places where home runs go to die—from the equation.
Also, if Sandoval balloons to his previous weight totals by the end of his contract with the Red Sox, he can just switch over to the DH spot, which will presumably be freed up by then with David Ortiz’s retirement on the horizon and Boston’s crop of young infield prospects set to take over in the field.
The only real risk factor for Sandoval is moving away from a team that has been labeled by some as a dynasty to a team that has lost more than 90 games in two of the last three years. But even with Boston’s current mess of a rotation, the lack of pitching shouldn’t be much of a serious concern. The Red Sox probably never would have signed Sandoval and Ramirez if they didn’t have a plan for shoring up their rotation, and that plan should be an obvious one. The team is stacked with hitting—there are literally too many position players to fit on the field—and by the beginning of the 2015 season, it would be astounding—almost statistically improbable, in my mind—for the Red Sox to be stuck with their same pitching rotation, the back end of which currently features Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa and Brandon Workman. That should change.
Do the deals make sense for the Red Sox?
The real win here for Boston is that Ramirez and Sandoval both agreed to sign medium-length deals, which means that the Red Sox won’t be stuck with two bloated contracts (and perhaps a bloated player if Sandoval struggles with his weight) seven years from now. Though both hitters instantly improve Boston’s roster, they’re not perfect: They each have long-term concerns that make them better suited to play DH down the road, a spot that only one of them can fill when Ortiz retires.
In a way, these two deals are similar to the one Russell Martin signed with the Blue Jays last Tuesday, in the sense that both times, the teams decided to bite the bullet and sign contracts that will almost surely look very ugly in three or four years. It’s anyone’s guess as to how well Sandoval and Ramirez will perform in the field (and even at the plate) near the ends of their contracts, but it might not be pretty.
Even so, Ramirez and Sandoval are good enough to justify two massive contracts (which don’t look so massive given some of the most recent long-term signings). Ramirez, like Sandoval, will benefit from a move away from a deadly ballpark for hitters, and that is reflected in his always-steady wRC+ numbers, which do take ballpark factors into account. Even last season, when Ramirez failed to live up to the expectations of his 2013 production, he still posted a 135 wRC+, which is actually a slight step above his career 133 mark. Whether or not Ramirez hits like it’s 2013 again, however, one part of the former Dodgers shortstop’s game is all but settled: his poor defense.
Ramirez seems destined for a permanent spot as a designated hitter before too long, given his struggles in the field last season. But Sandoval himself noted that the DH option influenced his decision to sign with the Red Sox over the Giants, which potentially creates an awkward situation down the road when Ramirez’s poor defense will likely necessitate his move to DH.
Meanwhile, Sandoval’s decline at the plate has been well documented, but for now, he has to be considered at least in the ballpark of "elite" with his relatively steady regular season production (despite the slight dropoff) and historic hitting in October.
Of course, Sandoval is earning big bucks in large part because he’s the all-time leader in postseason batting average among players with 150 or more plate appearances. It will certainly be interesting to see how sustainable that is (assuming the Red Sox make it to October during Sandoval’s time in Boston), especially given Sandoval has only played regularly in two playoff runs. (He was 3-for-17 in 2010 before exploding in 2012 and 2014.) Though it’s a nice sample size, it’s also no Jeter-esque number of plate appearances.
In the end, the Red Sox are a better team than they were on Sunday (the day before the signings), and their now-surplus of hitters gives them options trade-wise, which we’ll discuss in the following section.
What this means for Boston going forward
The Red Sox now have a lot of great hitters and not a lot of great pitchers, which seemingly indicates that a trade is on the horizon.
If Ramirez does indeed move to left field, Yoenis Cespedes is the odd man out. Though he was decently productive for the Red Sox after coming over at the non-waiver trade deadline, driving in 33 runs with a .423 slugging percentage in 51 games, Cespedes and his sub-.300 on-base percentage dating back to the start of 2013 simply aren’t up to par for a Boston lineup that could be the best in baseball. As Jonah Keri of Grantland pointed out, Boston’s projected lineup excludes Cespedes, Allen Craig, Shane Victorino, Jackie Bradley Jr., Daniel Nava, Brock Holt, Will Middlebrooks and Garin Cecchini, which gives the Red Sox plenty of options on the trade market. Starting pitchers David Price, Jordan Zimmerman and Jeff Samardzija all have just one year remaining on their contracts, and all three of them have been linked to trades in some capacity. The Sox’ wealth of prospects makes it realistic to a certain degree that they could acquire one of those three (or even the Phillies’ Cole Hamels), or they could pursue less elite pitching. Three top free agent starters—James Shields, Max Scherzer and Jon Lester—all remain on the market as well.
CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman wrote in his story announcing the deals that Boston is "believed prepared to offer [Lester] close to $130 million over six years," which would be a big step forward in shoring up a very questionable rotation. The point is, however, that the Red Sox have a huge array of options when it comes to acquiring starting pitching. It’s now up to them to put together the right deals—and it all starts with Cespedes.
Where does San Francisco go from here?
Though the Giants payroll is already locked up quite a bit with their collection of long-term contracts devoted to players like Buster Posey, Matt Cain and Hunter Pence, letting Sandoval walk does free up some space to address other needs. Namely, they’ll need to look for a left fielder to replace Michael Morse, or perhaps a starting pitcher to solidify a rotation that’s already strong but also at times felt like it was held together by Scotch tape last year. (And, of course, third base is suddenly a major need for San Francisco.)
Unsurprisingly, Grant Brisbee put it best when he noted that the Giants really can’t afford to be picky at this point, writing, "the Giants are in Walgreens a half-hour before their anniversary dinner." It’s true, and Brian Sabean knows it. Though the free agent class of hitters is particularly slim, especially with Ramirez and Sandoval gone, options still remain—but the Giants will have to act quickly. They’ve been linked to Yasmany Tomas, the home run-hitting outfielder out of Cuba who could fill the void left in the lineup by Sandoval’s departure. Chase Headley, the longtime Padre who tallied 396 plate appearances against the Giants across parts of eight years in San Diego, also serves as an option. But Headley has a history of struggling in pitcher-friendly ballparks while playing in the NL West. (He hit .243/.331/.372 at Petco Park over 1797 plate appearances and was hardly better at AT&T Park with a .720 OPS.)
The dominant bat that carried San Francisco through the playoffs is gone. Though Posey and Pence provide solid production in the heart of the Giants order, the lineup still is a bit lacking when it comes to that power-hitting, run-producing slugger that almost every successful lineup features. Though the Giants have found a way to make it work as recently as this past season (Posey led the team with 22 homers and 89 RBI), signing Tomas would certainly make up for the Panda-sized loss, even if it wouldn't be the most typical Brian Sabean move.
Andrew Friedman and his new sidekick, GM Farhan Zaidi, don’t need to go out and drop millions of dollars on a long-term contract for a Hanley replacement. Instead, they’re a good bet to turn to their current talent, like Erisbel Arruebarrena, the 24-year-old utility infielder from Cuba who had a .333 average and .852 OPS in 95 plate appearances at Triple-A last year, as they slowly ease superstar prospect Corey Seager into the six hole.
Except it might not have to be a "slow ease." Seager tore up High-A and Double-A last year, hitting .345 with a .915 OPS at the latter level. MLB.com ranks him as its 13th-best overall prospect, and scouts project him to be an above-average fielder. Though his plate discipline (40 walks, 115 strikeouts in 2014) isn’t advanced, the tools are there for Seager to aptly replace Ramirez, even if it doesn’t happen immediately.
Not a bad set of giveaways for 2015. A step in the right direction, Blue Jays!
According to a Blue Jays press release, the Blue Jays will offer patrons to the Rogers Centre a giveaway during 18 of their 81 home games in 2015, similar to 2014 numbers. It will feature one more bobblehead day than last season for a total of four, featuring three current players (Jose Bautista, Marcus Stroman, Russell Martin) and a three-headed version honouring 1980's-era outfielders George Bell, Lloyd Moseby, and Jesse Barfield on a ' "Turn Back the Dial to 1985" day in August. For that event I'll go to the park dressed as a fetus in a sac of amniotic fluid. I wonder if the new MLB security procedure will let me enter.
Expect long lines for these games. Another popular giveaways will be the two replica jerseys (one white and one red). The release did not specify the number that will be given away, but we are probably looking at 20,000. Why not give them out to every fan who passes through the gates? Simple: giving out a limited number forces fans to show up to the park and start consuming food and drinks and shopping for souvenirs hours before the game begins. I was told by a Blue Jays employee that the club makes more than enough money from the added concession sales during giveaway days to offset the material costs of the giveaway.
The Giveaways
April 13 (Home Opener): Rally Towel (on entrance) and Magnet Schedule (on exit) - 45,000
April 14-16: Magnet Schedule (on exit) - 10,000 (each game)
August 16: George Bell-Lloyd Moseby-Jesse Barfield bobblehead - 20,000
August 30: Blue Jays replica red jersey
September 18: Social media t-shirt - 15,000
September 27: Blue Jays hoodie
After giving out five hats (cowboy, visor, bucket, batting practice, toque) in the lacklustre 2014 lineup, it is refreshing to see that the marketing folks have limited themselves to just two hats this season, one of which is the white-panel Blue Jays cap everyone is waiting for, although I thought trucker caps also have a white front panel. (I wonder if that hints that the Blue Jays will be introducing it as an alternative on-field cap at some point.)
Most Inappropriate Giveaway Award: The Blue Jays will be inexplicably holding a "Snow Day in July" event and giving away mittens that are going to be lost before the following winter. I can understand doing the Snow Day event after global warming has eliminated winter in Canada, but come on, why would anyone want to be reminded of the grey and cold gloom that dominates our country for five months a year?
Most Appropriate Giveaway Award: The marketing genius who decided on giving out the Blue Jays welcome mat during the Civic Holiday long weekend should be applauded as the Blue Jays will likely slide into its usual position of being the American League East's doormat by that part of the season.
Overall Pre-Season Giveaway Rating: I like what they are doing here: 8/10. I would've liked to see some more creativity in the giveaways but this is a solid promo lineup for Toronto.
Lawrie will turn 25 for the 2015 season. The second and third baseman is entering arbitration for the first time and is projected to earn $1.8 million at arbitration according to the model from MLB Trade Rumors. He will reach free agency after 2017.
Lawrie's value is hampered by his injury history, which limited him to 70 games in 2014. Despite the limited action, he put up a 1.7 fWAR season in 2014, though a bit short of the 2.4 fWAR season he put up in 2012 over 125 games. Steamer projections project him to put up a 3.7 fWAR season over 130 games in 2015.
Defensively, Lawrie has spent far more time in the Major Leagues at third base, but had more time at second base in the minors. Lawrie was on pace for a Gold Glove-caliber season at third base with a 14.9 UZR/150. His 2013 was an average -0.1 UZR/150, but 2012 was an above average 5.6.
Sean Nolin
Left-handed pitcher Sean Nolin will turn 25 for the 2015 season. Nolin has at least one option year remaining, and is under team control until at least 2020. Nolin was rated as MLB's #97 overall prospect by Baseballprospectus.com after 2013 and the Jays #10 prospect by Baseball America after 2013. In an abbreviated Triple-A campaign due to a groin strain, Nolin completed his first significant time at Triple-A with a 3.50 ERA over 17 starts and 87⅓ innings.
Kendall Graveman
Right-handed pitcher Kendall Graveman will turn 24 for the 2015 season. Graveman is under team control until at least 2020. Graveman advanced extraordinarily quickly through the Toronto Blue Jays system, starting 2014 in Class Low-A Lansing and moving up to Triple-A before getting called up to the Major Leagues by Toronto in September. With the Blue Jays, he pitched 4⅔ innings in relief, conceding just two earned runs, striking out four, and walking none.
Franklin Barreto
Franklin Barreto was an international free agent signing and will turn 19 for the 2015 season. The shortstop was the #5 prospect in the Blue Jays system after 2013 according to Baseball America. He is expected to play in his first full-season ball, and does not need to be protected from the Rule 5 draft until the December 2017 draft. Baseball America national writer Ben Badler has this to say about Barreto in wake of the trade:
Franklin Barreto is a natural hitter. Quick hands, compact stroke, knack for the barrel. Good speed, but not a shortstop. 2B/CF most likely.
Billy Beane must be on tilt after dealing his best prospect Addison Russell for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel last season, as he just traded third baseman Josh Donaldson to the Blue Jays. Read on for more details.
After initial reports had the A's dealing starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija, the A's have made a blockbuster deal this evening. The A's appear to be in some sort of rebuild as they have just traded their best hitter, third baseman Josh Donaldson to the Blue Jays for Brett Lawrie and a few prospects. Here is Foxsports' Ken Rosenthal:
Deal is 4-for-1. Donaldson from #Athletics to #BlueJays for Lawrie, Graveman, Barreto, Nolin.
I don't get this deal at all. The A's get infielder Brett Lawrie who can't stay healthy and has been a major disappointment, pitching prospect Kendall Graveman, shortstop prospect Franklin Barreto and pitching prospect Sean Nolin. Sure the A's get some players in return for Donadlson, but one has to think they could have gotten a better prospect in return for their All Star third baseman.
Donaldson was the sixth best player in baseball according to FanGraph's fWAR, and has been one of the best hitting third baseman over the last two seasons. He is arbitration eligible this offseason, so maybe that was one of the main drivers for this deal, but even so, there aren't many better players in the game over the last two seasons. Make one scratch their head, for sure.
In return the A's receive third baseman Brett Lawrie, yes, the same Brett Lawrie who has played a grand total of 345 games over the last four seasons. He can't stay healthy and has been a big disappointment at the plate when he is healthy.
Minor League Ball's John Sickels ranked Sean Nolin as his #5 Blue Jays prospect last offseason, and here is what he had to say about Nolin in his post -season review of his Blue Jays rankings:
5) Sean Nolin, LHP, Grade B: Age 24, 3.50 ERA with 74/35 K/BB in 87 innings for Buffalo, 74 hits. Doesn't have Norris' ceiling but could still be a workable fourth starter or relief option.
Sickels ranked Barreto as his #6 ranked Blue Jays prospect in his Top 20 preseason rankings, and here is what he had to say about Barreto in his post-season rankings review:
6) Franklin Barreto, SS, Grade B-: Age 18, hit .311/.384/.481 with six homers, 26 walks, 64 strikeouts, 29 steals in 289 at-bats for Vancouver in the Northwest League. Large step forward for this toolsy player, up into B+ range.
Barreto seems to have some promise, but he is very far away.
Like I said, I don't understand this deal, and it appears the A's are in full rebuild as Lawrie is not a player you build a team around. He will just be cheaper than Donaldson over the next few seasons.
I think Beane has a few more deals in the works and starting pitcher Jeff Samardzija could be the next Athletic player on the move.
Billy Beane shakes things up again by sending his star third baseman to the Blue Jays for Brett Lawrie and a trio of prospects.
It's the offseason, which means it's time for Billy Beane to make a bunch of trades that confuse the heck out of everybody in the baseball community and this is one of those deals for sure. Ken Rosenthal reports that the Athletics have dealt star third baseman Josh Donaldson to the Blue Jays for their third baseman Brett Lawrie and three prospects: right handed pitcher Kendall Graveman, shortstop Franklin Barreto, and left handed pitcher Sean Nolin.
The big piece of the deal is clearly the 28-year-old Donaldson, who hit a combined .277/.363/.477 for Oakland and crushed 24 and 29 home runs respectively in 2013 and 2014. Along with that offensive prowess, Donaldson is well known for his glove at third and was well above average defensively by both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved. Overall, both Fangraphs and Baseball Reference wins above replacement have graded him out to be somewhere between a 6 to 8 win player in each of the last two seasons and he's also received MVP votes, finishing in 4th place in 2013 and 8th place in 2014. He also made his first All-Star game appearance in 2014.
Meanwhile, heading back to Oakland is the four part package led by third baseman Brett Lawrie. Just 24 years old, Lawrie has shown ability offensively and defensively but has never been able to put together a full season as Toronto's starting third baseman due to a number of injuries. A career .265/.323/.426 hitter with burgeoning power, Lawrie has a shot to improve provided he can stay on the field. Pitchers Graveman and Nolin both have very limited big league experience but each has had success at Triple-A, meaning they'll add to Oakland's stable of quality starting pitching depth in 2015. The shortstop Barreto is a little further away at age 18 but appears ticketed for full season ball after beating up on the short season Northwest League in 2014. He's a toolsy, high-ceiling shortstop prospect who, down the road, could potentially make up for the loss of Addison Russell in Oakland. Nolin and Barreto ranked #5 and #6 respectively on John Sickels' Blue Jays top 20 prospect list last offseason.
The strangest part of the deal may be that the A's are actually giving up a year of service time by dealing Donaldson for Lawrie. Despite being four years younger, Lawrie has more service time than Donaldson and can become a free agent a year earlier. Both players are first year arbitration eligible this winter but as a Super Two, Donaldson is likely to make a lot more money thanks to his superior performance.
If you're reading this then you most certainly know about the trade that became official a short time ago between the Toronto Blue Jays and Oakland Athletics. Heading to the A's are Brett Lawrie, Franklin Barreto, Kendall Graveman, and Sean Nolin, while the Blue Jays receive All-Star third baseman Josh Donaldson in return. The trade is yet another sign that Alex Anthopoulos and company are very serious about going all in for the next few seasons and have had enough of building up solid farm systems to come up short time and time again. By trading away essentially three top 12 prospects as well as the former Canadian third baseman of the future, Anthopoulos has risked his job and a large part of the franchise's fate on this trade and the Russell Martin signing earlier this month.
For all of the people that were slowly losing faith in the ability of the front office to make moves like this, it is certainly a massive reminder that Alex Anthopoulos is always capable of pulling off a crazy deal at any time. As he said after the signing of Martin, the majority of the moves made during the rest of the offseason would be trades as he's always much preferred building teams through swaps with other teams instead of expensive free agent signings.
It sounds like the initial opinion among Blue Jays fans is that Anthopoulos is back to his old "ninja" ways and he pulled a fast one on the most well-known general manager in baseball. Once you step back and assess the deal you realize that it is more of a win-win than a straight steal as many are making it out to be. Donaldson is a Super Two player and will very quickly become much more expensive than Lawrie in arbitration thanks to his massive production the past few seasons. Rogers has clearly given the team enough financial backing to handle this pay raise due for Donaldson, while the A's always have to be mindful of where they spend their limited funds (even more limited after signing Billy Butler).
Billy Beane also takes on the upside of three extremely talented prospects in Barreto, Graveman, and Nolin. Barreto could develop into a solid offensive shortstop or he could move elsewhere and still hit enough to provide solid value. Graveman and Nolin are already nearly bumping their heads on their respective ceilings and could provide extremely attractive value to Oakland in the near-future.
The trade will likely come out looking very good for Toronto in the next season or two as Donaldson is projected to outpace Lawrie quite handily. The eventual performances of the three prospects will end up determining how history will remember the deal, but even if all three become major league regulars the Blue Jays still traded for Donaldson with the intention of going for the World Series now. With many of their stars in their prime, the team clearly wasn't prepared to wait for players like Barreto to develop not knowing who would still be around when he was ready.
I often find myself straddling the middle on big trades like this because I hate seeing players in the Blue Jays system get shipped to other teams. Although I'm not about to yell from the rooftops that Alex Anthopoulos just stole Josh Donaldson from Billy Beane, I'm extremely pleased that the Blue Jays general manager made a strong move to put the team in a position to win in 2015 and beyond. It cost a lot of talent, as big moves usually do, but the end result is a major league team that looks stronger than it did when we woke up this morning. If that doesn't get you counting down the days until Spring Training then I don't know what will.
An unlucky 2014, combined with a move to a hitter's park, makes Josh Donaldson a super target for 2015
Josh Donaldson has been traded from the Oakland A's to the Toronto Blue Jays. With this trade, Donaldson moves from one of the most pitching friendly ballparks in the American League to one of the most hitter friendly ballparks. This, combined with bad luck in 2014, makes him a fantastic target in 2015.
Park Factors
I’m going to use ESPN’s park factor list to compare Rogers Centre to the Oakland Coliseum, but keep in mind that this park factor formula is not perfect.
Park Factor compares the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road. A rate higher than 1.000 favors the hitter. Below 1.000 favors the pitcher. Teams with home games in multiple stadiums list aggregate Park Factors.
Due to MLB divisional scheduling, some teams play a higher amount of road games in extreme ballparks than others. Teams are scheduled to play 19 divisional games against each division opponent per season, and half of those games are on the road. So, for example, the Colorado Rockies play about 27 road games per year in Petco Park, AT&T Park and Dodgers Stadium, three of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. This can skew the home/road park factor statistics using the above formula. Another example is the Texas Rangers, who travel to Seattle, LAA and Oakland, three more pitcher favorable parks.
The A's have a split in their divisional road park types; they play in two pitcher parks, Safeco and Angel Stadium, and two hitters parks, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington and Minute Maid Park, so in theory this park factor list shouldn't be too off for them. In addition to the divisional road games, the type of pitching a team faces and the handedness of the batter can also affect the park ratings, too. This park factor formula should generally be taken with a grain of salt. Regardless, this is a quick and easy way of comparing home run park factors, and still holds value.
In 2014, Rogers Centre ranked 3rdin home run park factors at 1.310 while the Oakland Coliseum ranked 21st at 0.903. In 2013, Rogers Centre was 3rd at 1.289 while the Oakland Coliseum was 25th at 0.818. Donaldson’s chances of hitting more home runs improves significantly by moving from the spacious Oakland Coliseum and into Rogers Centre.
Donaldson’s new divisional road schedule will also help him. The Blue Jays will play 29 road games in Yankee Stadium, Camden Yards, and Fenway Park, all fantastic hitters parks. This replaces 19 divisional road games in Safeco and Angel Stadium, two pitcher’s parks.
Donaldson's home/road splits in 2014 also support the idea that putting him in the American League East will boost his statistics. Donaldson hit .276/.361/.513 (.874 OPS) with a 146 wRC+ in 2014 away from the Oakland Coliseum, a line almost identical to his 2013 season line.
Donaldson was unlucky in 2014
Josh Donaldson made excellent contact in 2014 and wasn’t fully rewarded for it. Donaldson had the 12th best hard hit rate in baseball at 21.4% in 2014. Hard contact is great for a hitter because the harder a ball is hit, the more likely strong offensive production occurs:
Batting average by batted ball type:
Hard: around .700
Medium: around .400
Soft: around .140-.150
% of _ that are hard hit:
Home runs: about 100%
Triples: over 80%
Doubles: over 70%
Singles: about 30%
Outs: about 7%
Despite such an excellent hard hit rate, Donaldson’s batting average dropped nearly 50 points from last season, his wRC+ dropped from 147 to 129 and his OPS dropped from .883 to .798. Why did Donaldson’s statistics drop so much despite such a strong amount of quality contact?
I think an explanation lies here: 131 of Donaldson’s batted balls were hard hit, and Donaldson only hit .646 on these, about .54 points below the average of .700. Had Donaldson had average luck on hard hit balls, his batting average, OPS and wRC+ would have been much closer to his 2013 statistics. Donaldson’s process at the plate was good, he just had bad luck and wasn’t being rewarded for his good process.
If we project Donaldson to have average luck on hard hit balls in 2015, and combine that with the better park factors he’ll be facing in the AL East, Donaldson looks primed for a sensational 2015 fantasy season. Expect 30+ home runs, 100 RBI, and 100 runs scored.
The Toronto Blue Jays have decided to join in on the AL East offseason fun. Last night, they traded away Brett Lawrie and three prospects for Josh Donaldson of the Athletics. That lineup looks a lot more dangerous now. Pitchers and catchers report in 82 days.
Last night, the Toronto Blue Days and the Oakland Athletics completed a huge trade. The Blue Jays got all star third baseman Josh Donaldson in exchange for third baseman Brett Lawrie, rookie shortstop Franklin Barreto, and rookie pitchers Sean Nolin and Kendall Graveman. Wow. It's still too early to judge whom this trade benefits more, but the majority of fans from the Blue Jays & Athletics respective fanbases are saying the Blue Jays got the better end of the deal. Even current A's outfielder Josh Reddick is confused by this trade.
“It doesn’t make sense to me,” outfielder Josh Reddick tells @susanslusser "We traded our best player the past two years.” #Athletics
He's not wrong. Perhaps we'll soon see the method to Billy Beane's madness. Needless to say, good luck with that Blue Jays lineup now, Yankees pitching.
Comments of the Day
It was a light day yesterday. Not many comments. It was expected.
GIF of the Day
No GIFs either. Unbelievable.
Honorable Mod Mention
No HMM awards to give out. All the mods were out shopping for the Pinstripe Alley Writer's Secret Santa Spectacular.
So yeah, between the Blue Jays, the Red Sox, and the Orioles, the Yankees pitching staff certainly has their work cut out for them this year. Perhaps they might want to bolster their starting rotation soon.
The A's parted with a legitimate (albeit unheralded) franchise player in his prime with four years of team control remaining; in return, they got themselves a package of very interesting young talent. If you wisely were not glued to your Twitter on a Friday night, then you might have missed the exact details of the transaction, so here it is:
The @BlueJays have acquired JOSH DONALDSON from the Oakland Athletics for BRETT LAWRIE, SEAN NOLIN, KENDALL GRAVEMAN and FRANKLIN BARRETO.
There is a lot to take in here, so let's go piece-by-piece.
What are the Blue Jays getting?
Josh Donaldson (four years of control at arbitration prices)- By fWAR, Donaldson has been the third-most valuable position player in baseball over the last two years, behind only Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen. Players like that rarely become available on the trade market, especially if they are relatively cheap (MLBTR projects Donaldson to cost $4.5 million this season) and far from free agency. While the 28-year-old is on track to become more expensive through arbitration, he remains likely to have a great deal of surplus value. In fact, Dave Cameron ranked him as baseball's 17th-most valuable trade chip in July.
Donaldson's late-career breakout creates a bit more uncertainty about his production going forward than there is for many players of a similar age, but the Blue Jays' offense is built on late-breakout guys, and two 6+ WAR seasons in a row should put any doubts about Donaldson's true talent to rest.
The Jays will control their new third baseman through his early decline years, but he projects to be an All-Star-caliber performer for at least the next two seasons. Steamer projects a 125 wRC+ in 2015, paired with elite defense for a WAR total of 5.5.
Long story short, Donaldson is a stud.
What are the Athletics getting?
Brett Lawrie (three years of control at arbitration prices): Lawrie is a very difficult player to figure out. He flashed incredible offensive potential in his rookie season, putting together a .293/.373/.580 line and looked to be a player the Blue Jays could build around. Over the next three seasons he has been simultaneously productive and disappointing.
Since 2012 Lawrie's .261/.316/.406 line is acceptable, but far from special. Sometimes he has looked like a great hitter; other times, he has looked like a lost ground ball machine. He has been maddeningly inconsistent, which results in very ordinary production that seems underwhelming, considering his strength, athleticism, and moments of brilliance. At 24, he's young enough that his hitting could improve, but he's old enough that it's unfair to count on it too heavily. The good news for Oakland is that even if he is average at the plate, he is a good player because he's an asset in the field.
However, to be an asset in the field, he needs to stay on it: Lawrie has only played in 302 games over the last three seasons. While some of his injuries have been freak occurrences, sometimes brought on by his max-max-max effort playing style, he has had multiple oblique issues. Moving away from turf could help, but once again that's no guarantee.
Overall, Lawrie is an interesting kind of gamble. His defensive prowess gives him a high floor, and he does have some offensive upside. He could be a poor man's Donaldson, but quite a lot cheaper. Alternatively, he could be a constantly injured disappointment. More likely than not, he'll be an above-average starter that doesn't hit quite as much as you want and misses more time than you'd like.
His frenetic playing style will make him a fan favorite when he and/or the team is playing well, and a huge annoyance when things are going sideways. Taking on Brett Lawrie is embracing a fun but bumpy ride.
Franklin Barreto (six years of team control): Barreto is probably the make-or-break piece in this deal for Oakland. This season the 18-year-old destroyed the Short-Season A Northwest league, hitting .311/.384/.481 against competition that was more than three years older than him on average. It is somewhat uncertain where Barreto winds up on the diamond, but the most likely scenarios appear to be second base or center field.
Barreto's hit tool and speed are his trademarks, and he has the the production to match that scouting report. It is very difficult to make realistic big-league projections for teenagers, but the Venezualan prospect has potential to be an everyday player. If he does, Oakland probably gets good value from this deal. Working with a relatively limited payroll, the Athletics need to search for high-quality young players at every opportunity, and I doubt they make this deal if they didn't think very highly of Barreto.
Sean Nolin (six years of team control): Nolin is more "cheap young left-handed arm" than "big-time prospect", but that's just fine. He's gotten by on good command and uninspiring stuff and has had quite a lot of success at the minor league level. The southpaw turns 25 in December, and it's time to see what he can do at in the major leagues.
Nolin is a classic low-upside, low-downside type of guy, The Blue Jays saw him as a depth piece, and that's likely what he'll be in Oakland. With Oakland's pitcher-friendly park and respectable outfield defense, he may even blossom into a back-end starter. Considering he's not arbitration eligible until 2018, there's plenty of value in that.
Kendall Graveman (six years of team control): In a lot of ways, Graveman is the wildcard here. Coming into the 2014 season he was an afterthought, but he suddenly discovered a cutter and began dominating the minor leagues. He still remains a longshot to be a starter in the majors due to lack of an out pitch (he didn't have a K/9 that exceeded six above Low-A last season), but he's an intriguing breakout to buy in on by the Athletics as a toss-in piece.
If his cutter is for real, maybe he's a guy the A's can use down the road. If not, it was worth a try.
So, why did this happen?
Clearly, the Blue Jays are all in on competing for a playoff spot as soon as possible. This makes sense, considering that their core is aging and lineup mainstays Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are only under team control through 2016. The Jays have a lot of good young pitchers, but there was no way to be sure that they'd develop in time for the team to capitalize on the remaining prime years of their powerful Dominican duo.
Even though the team didn't really need a third baseman, or another right-handed power bat, they saw an opportunity to acquire a great player who would improve the team. The Jays have made two impact acquisitions this offseason, and neither of them have been at positions of dire need.
As far as the Athletics are concerned, the team decided to cash in its most valuable trade chip for some quality young players. Donaldson is only getting older, more expensive, and in all likelihood worse; if they were going to trade him, there was no time like the present. Increased financial flexibility is always valuable to Oakland, as is young, controllable talent, and the team got both in spades with this deal.
The Blue Jays win this trade if....
Josh Donaldson from 2015-2018 is anything like the one from 2013-2014. Ending the largest playoff drought in the sport would also make this a win, but it's hard to pin that on a single trade.
The Blue Jays lose this trade if...
Donaldson goes into a steep decline, and/or Brett Lawrie becomes the star that the team was so hopeful he could be. If Barreto goes on to become an All-Star second baseman and the Jays continue to play absolutely epic scrubs at the position for years to come, that would also hurt for Jays fans.
The Athletics win this trade if...
Brett Lawrie stays healthy and begins to wield a consistently solid bat, and Barreto turns into something worthwhile. Even if Barreto flames out, if Lawrie steps up and either of the arms surprise this deal could still be OK for them.
The Athletics lose this trade if...
Lawrie cannot stay on the field, Barreto producing nothing, and neither arm exceeds expectations.
Ultimately, it's far too simplistic to describe this trade in binary win-loss terms. Both teams could easily get value out of this deal. It'll take years to sort this one out, but for the time being, it's pretty damn interesting. You don't see a player of Donaldson's quality moved in this way very often, and it's also fairly surprising to see the Blue Jays ship off a "local kid"* who is arguably worth more to them than any other team.
*While Brett Lawrie is often characterized as a Blue Jays local kid because he's Canadian, he actually grew up 3,330 km (or 2069 miles) away from Toronto. Apparently, Canada is a big country.
On a day that is legendary for its absolutely insane deals, Alex Anthopoulos and Billy Beane may have pulled off the craziest one of all.
At this point, you probably already know the obvious details on the newly acquired Josh Donaldson: came out of nowhere in 2012, huge upgrade, great defender, very good hitter, etc. The purpose of this piece is to go deeper, and look at Donaldson in depth to get an idea of strength and weaknesses, as well as perhaps areas where he could improve with the Jays. But first, a brief look at the big picture:
Overall
BB%
K%
BABIP
ISO
wRC+
LD%
GB%
FB%
Pop/FB
HR/FB
Donaldson
9.9%
18.5%
0.299
0.201
127
17.8%
43.9%
38.3%
10.3%
13.8%
MLB Average
8.0%
19.5%
0.300
0.146
100
21.0%
44.5%
34.5%
9.8%
10.5%
All data above and throughout is from Fangraphs, and MLB average refers to 2012-14 average for all non-pitchers. I have singled out the four components - K%, BB%, BABIP, and isolated power - that are largely responsible for driving difference in production. By focussing on these, we can get a better idea of the type of hitter Donaldson is and how he produced to the level he does. The batted ball data to the right in turn is useful in explaining differences in BABIP and ISO.
Donaldson basically succeeds by doing everything by doing everything well, and a few things very well. Career to date, he's walked a little more than average (+1.9%) while striking out a little less (-1%). He's had an average BABIP despite a batted ball profile skewed towards fly balls (low BABIP) and away from line drives (high BABIP), suggesting he hits the ball hard. His power numbers are excellent, driven by the higher fly ball rate and an ability to convert them into home runs (+3.3%).
Josh Donaldson has Significant Platoon Splits
BB%
K%
BABIP
ISO
wRC+
LD%
GB%
FB%
Pop/FB
HR/FB
v. LHP
10.7%
19.3%
0.283
0.292
165
17.8%
38.8%
43.4%
6.9%
18.9%
v. RHP
9.6%
23.7%
0.306
0.149
112
17.8%
46.1%
36.0%
12.1%
11.1%
For his career, Donaldson has been a good hitter against righties while absolutely mashed lefties. Against southpaws, Donaldson has a strong fly ball orientation, which works great as he drives them out of the park a whopping 19% of the time while only popping them up 7% of the time. Naturally, this results in huge power numbers. The BABIP looks a little low, but that's because all those bombs are excluded from the calculation (fortunately, not so on the scoreboard). Unsurprisingly, he walks at an above average clip while striking out an average amount.
Against righties, there's no part of his game that is exceedingly weak, but there's nothing that really stands out either. He both walks and strikes out a little above average, with a decent BABIP and slightly below average power. His batted ball profile is more in line with league average, as are his home run and popup rates.
Josh Donaldson has been Much Better Away from Oakland
BB%
K%
BABIP
ISO
wRC+
LD%
GB%
FB%
Pop/FB
HR/FB
Home
9.5%
17.2%
0.284
0.184
120
17.7%
42.2%
40.1%
12.4%
11.5%
Away
10.4%
19.7%
0.313
0.196
134
18.0%
45.5%
36.6%
8.1%
16.2%
This is where things get really exciting for Jays fans: the last column on the right. On the road, Donaldson has sent fly balls out of the park 16% of the time, well above average. Oakland is a tough park in which to hit home runs, and Donaldson did so just 11.5% of the time. Rogers Centre is a great place to hit home runs, and his home run totals will surge if he just matches his career rate on the road, nevermind exceeds it in a favourable environment. In fact, it goes further than that, since other AL West parks (Seattle, Anaheim) tend to suppress power, while other AL East parks are good for power (Boston, New York, Baltimore). Consider the following:
Donaldson Team GP in
2014
2015
TOR, BAL, BOS & NYY
12
110
OAK, LAA, SEA & TB
103
18
Josh Donaldson has Succeeded on all Batted Ball Types
OBP
BABIP
ISO
wRC+
Pop/FB
HR/FB
Ground Balls
0.257
0.257
0.025
48
Fly Balls
0.252
0.141
0.498
175
10.3%
12.9%
Line Drives
0.712
0.707
0.227
380
1.9%
MLB Average
OBP
BABIP
ISO
wRC+
Pop/FB
HR/FB
Ground Balls
0.237
0.237
0.020
32
0.0%
Fly Balls
0.214
0.124
0.405
120
9.8%
10.2%
Line Drives
0.685
0.683
0.199
351
0.6%
Unlike Jose Bautista (for example), who basically punches his ticket entirely on fly balls, Donaldson has been above league average across the board. On each batted ball type, he's posted an above average BABIP by 15-25 points, which suggests superior contact skills. For ground balls, the higher BABIP drives a modest increase in production, but it adds up since it accounts for about 40% of all balls in play and 25% of overall plate appearances. Likewise, he ends up slightly ahead on line drives, with the higher BABIP masking and offsetting slightly below average power. By his bread and butter is in fly balls, where he gets well above average power while getting more balls to drop in.
Josh Donaldson is an Incredibly Balanced Hitter
OBP
BABIP
ISO
wRC+
LD%
GB%
FB%
Pop/FB
HR/FB
Pull
0.335
0.280
0.309
175
13.7%
62.5%
23.8%
12.4%
31.9%
Middle
0.323
0.297
0.189
133
19.3%
39.8%
40.9%
3.3%
8.9%
Opposite
0.359
0.332
0.202
159
22.5%
18.2%
59.3%
16.6%
6.7%
MLB Average
OBP
BABIP
ISO
wRC+
LD%
GB%
FB%
Pop/FB
HR/FB
Pull
0.337
0.294
0.268
160
19.6%
60.2%
20.1%
9.4%
30.7%
Middle
0.330
0.315
0.135
118
21.1%
42.0%
36.9%
4.2%
6.0%
Opposite
0.297
0.286
0.130
96
23.2%
22.8%
54.0%
15.3%
2.8%
Donaldson is tremendous at using the entire field, recording above production to all fields. His BABIP when going pull or middle are below average, but when factoring home runs back in (OBP) are much closer to average. His superior power makes him an above average hitter in both those fields. What is particularly interesting that his home run rate when pulling the ball is pretty pedestrian, just 1.2% above average whereas to other fields is well above average, especially on a relative basis. This might suggest some additional power to be unlocked!
But where Donaldson really distinguishes himself is in hitting to the opposite field, recording both a high BABIP and very strong power and resulting in a 159 wRC+ compared to just 96 for the league. A big factor is that doubles the league rate in driving fly balls out to the opposite, though it also appears that more of them fall in as well.
This Has No* Predictive Value, but Josh Donalson has Been a Very Clutch Hitter
Leverage
BB%
K%
BABIP
ISO
wRC+
LD%
GB%
FB%
Pop/FB
HR/FB
Low
9.4%
18.3%
0.282
0.176
115
17.3%
43.6%
39.1%
8.5%
11.7%
Medium
10.1%
18.0%
0.310
0.214
141
18.6%
43.0%
38.5%
11.6%
15.7%
High
12.0%
21.7%
0.353
0.177
139
17.6%
49.1%
33.3%
16.7%
19.4%
As the importance of the situation has risen, Donaldson has risen to the occasion. He walks more, his BABIP increases significantly, and he has hit more fly balls out for home runs. In low leverage situations, he's been merely a good-to-very good hitter. When the pressure rises, he's been outstanding.
Leverage
BB%
K%
BABIP
ISO
wRC+
LD%
GB%
FB%
Pop/FB
HR/FB
Bases Empty
7.7%
19.4%
0.264
0.172
101
17.1%
42.9%
40.0%
11.0%
11.8%
Men on Base
12.8%
17.4%
0.346
0.215
161
18.8%
45.1%
36.1%
9.2%
16.8%
Men In Scoring
16.0%
16.0%
0.344
0.161
151
17.0%
49.5%
33.6%
9.3%
13.4%
The same is true situationally. With no one, he's been a pedestrian hitter, almost perfectly league average in all components except a low BABIP and higher power. With runners on, he's absolutely mashed, with great plate discipline, a huge BABIP and good power numbers driven by above average HR/FB rates. Granted, players hit better with runners on anyway, but not nearly to the extent Donaldson has.
(*Technically not no predictive value, but close enough to not bother splitting hairs and possibly giving birth to a narrative that will require crushing later)
After dealing his best hitter Josh Donaldson last night, reports indicate that A's GM Billy Beane is not done dealing.
I wrote about the Josh Donaldson to the Blue Jays deal last night, and it appears that A's GM Billy Beane still has a few more trades to contemplate. Late last night, A's beat writer John Hickey from the Bay Area News Grouo tweeted the following:
This did not surprise me actually, especially since another A's beat writer, Susan Slusser, from the San Francisco Chronicle, had tweeted that Samardzija was being discussed in trade talks earlier in the evening. She could end up being right if/when the A's deal Samardzija.
Samardzija was the main player coming back to the A's in the huge midseason trade that brought Jason Hammel and the Shark to the A's for top shortstop prospect Addison Russell, outfield prospect Billy McKinney, pitcher Dan Straily and a player to be named later (not sure if this deal has been finalized).
The fantasy implications of this proposed trade are significant for the hitters involved. As of right now, there is no deal, and the only players that we are aware of are Samardzija, Upton and Gattis. I assume if both Upton and Gattis are involved, the Braves would be receiving something more than Samardzija, maybe a low level prospect.
The player who would be impacted the most would be Upton, as he would be moving from Atlanta, which had a park factor for home runs, according to ESPN, of 1.12, while O.co Coliseum in Oakland had a home run park factor of 0.903. So his home run total could drop if he is dealt to Oakland. Add in the fact that he will play 19 games in Seattle and Anaheim and he could have difficulty reaching 25 home runs in 2015.
Gattis' fantasy value would take a similar hit, but he does own catcher eligibility, so it's entirely possible his value is not impacted as much as Upton's.
Samardzija's value would stay about the same, as he would be leaving the American League to the National League where there is no designated hitter. But looking at his performance after the trade, he went 5-6 with a 3.14 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP and a 8.25 strikeout to walk ratio in 16 starts. For comparison purposes, he made 17 starts with the Cubs last season, going 2-7 with a 2.83 ERA, 1.204 WHIP and a 3.32 strikeout to walk rate.
As I tweeted last night, I selfishly hope that Samardzija is dealt to a National League team, there are many teams interested in him, as I own him at $2 in the UBA NL-only keeper league. Should he get dealt to the NL, I would own the following starters (2015 salaries in parentheses):
Not a bad starting rotation for an NL-only league. I am currently trying to deal one of my starters and have offers out to a few owners for a hitter or prospect.
Now that people have gotten over the initial excitement of acquiring one of the best players in all of baseball, it's time to take a look at how it affects the team going forward. Unlike the trades with the Mets and Marlins a few years ago where the payroll and roster were thrown into complete chaos, this trade has a pretty minimal impact in those terms.
The first effect is that the trade opened up two roster spots on the 40-man (the only relevant roster during the offseason) as Brett Lawrie, Kendall Graveman, and Sean Nolin were all on the Blue Jays roster. Graveman wasn't added to the 40-man until late this year when he came up to make his debut, while Nolin was added to the roster back in 2013 for his single horror start. Obviously Lawrie and Donaldson have both been on their respective 40-man rosters for a while now, which results in a net gain of two spots for the Blue Jays in the deal.
This is somewhat important as Alex Anthopoulos now has the ability to make some acquisitions during the Rule 5 draft in December or add players who are DFA'ed by other teams during this time of roster crunching due to free agent acquisitions. While the team had some fringe players they could have moved off the roster if they wanted to add players like Sean Rodriguez, the net cost of making one of these moves is now much lower with empty 40-man spots.
In terms of payroll the deal will have a larger effect down the road, but for the short-term the impact is quite small. Josh Donaldson has 2.158 years of service time making him eligible for arbitration this season as a super two player. Over at MLBTR they predict that the third baseman will receive $4.5 million in his first go-around in the arbitration process. Brett Lawrie on the other hand also has his first experience with the process this offseason, but is not a super two player and is predicted to make $1.8 million. Depending on how much time you think Nolin and Graveman would have spent in the major leagues next season, the 2015 payroll increased by about $2-$2.5 million with this trade.
Looking forward, with Donaldson likely providing massive value in his arbitration years his cost will rise quite high by his third and fourth time through the process. Lawrie will also be in line for a pay raise in the next two years, but will then become a free agent in 2018 making his total cost through arbitration cheaper than Donaldson. The obvious flip side of this argument is that Donaldson only becomes a free agent in 2019 giving the Blue Jays an extra year of control compared to Lawrie.
When all is said and done, this trade was more about the players involved than any sort of payroll or roster considerations. The Blue Jays gained two extra 40-man spots which could end up being useful for Alex Anthopoulos when trying to make some depth moves in the coming months. The team also took on slightly more money, but in the end no matter how expensive Josh Donaldson is in two or three years it won't be considered an overpay if he's putting up more than 5 WAR every season.
What kind of package could the Indians have offered to match what Toronto gave up to get Josh Donaldson?
Friday night the A's traded All-Star third baseman Josh Donaldson to the Blue Jays for Brett Lawrie and three prospects. Oakland's return certainly has potential, but it doesn't feel like the kind of overwhelming return a team would get for an MVP candidate who's under team control for another four years at a below-market cost. Third base is one of the positions many feel the Indians should be trying to improve. Should they have been in on Donaldson? What sort of offer could they have put together to meet/exceed what Toronto gave up?
To be clear, Donaldson wouldn't have been just some marginal upgrade at the hot corner; over the last two years he has been the best third baseman in baseball, with only one or two peers offensively and only one or two peers defensively. His 138 wRC+ over those two years places him in the top 20 in all of baseball. All that and he only turns 29 next week.
As I already mentioned, he's still under team control for four years, and while he's entering his Super 2 year of arbitration, he'll still be a bargain, likely to make something like $5-6M in 2015, with raises of $4-5M to follow if he continues to play well, for a total of something like $45-50M for the next four years. He's been worth 7 to 7.5 WAR a season, and is projected to be worth 5.6 in 2015 by Steamer, which (with a typical -0.5 a year decline) works out to 19-20 WAR over the next four years, which would be worth upwards of $100M on the open market.
This is absolutely someone the Indians could have used, and with his two most expensive season coming after Swisher and Bourn's contracts are off the books, they'd be able to afford him (though the 2016 payroll would probably be maxed out).
What kind of package could the Tribe have put together to match/top Toronto?
Brett Lawrie is more valuable than Lonnie Chisenhall. Both of them were 1st round picks in 2008, but Lawrie is a year younger. They are both headed into arbitration for the first time, and both of them have appeared in exactly 345 games, and they both have a career wRC+ of 104, but Lawrie is a better defender.
The Indians would have included Chisenhall, but the other players/prospects they offered would have had to be better than what Toronto gave up. So, who else did Toronto give up?
Sean Nolin is a left-handed pitcher who'll turn 25 in December. He's put up good numbers in the minor leagues, and is viewed as MLB ready at this point. He was ranked as the #97 prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus, but other outlets haven't been as high on him. He's a valuable piece, but not as valuable as Danny Salazar, and probably not as valuable as Trevor Bauer. Nolin under team control for two years beyond Bauer, but Bauer's pedigree is higher, and Bauer has already shown some signs of putting it together in the Majors. (Nolin also missed almost half of 2014 with a groin injury) I think Salazar and Chisenhall carry a little more value than Lawrie and Nolan, while Bauer and Chisenhall would still be a little bit behind.
Kendall Graveman is a right-handed pitcher who'll turn 24 in December. Graveman began 2014 in Single-A, but was quickly promoted to High-A, then Double-A, then Triple-A, and then Toronto (for a quick cup of coffee during which he pitched 4.2 innings). He was very successful, despite low strikeout figures, in large part because he allowed only 2 home runs in 172 innings across all levels. Notably, neither Graveman or Nolin was on Baseball America's top ten Blue Jays prospect list, released earlier this month. Cody Anderson seems like about as valuable a prospect as Graveman (though Anderson had a much worse 2014). Dylan Baker would also be comparable.
Franklin Barreto is the one piece of the trade that's largely about future potential, and not present value. Only 18 years old, Barreto posted an .865 OPS in 2014 while playing in Low-A. He's a shortstop, but scouts seem to expect him to move to second base or the outfield eventually. In terms of a high-upside match, Francisco Mejia might be the best fit in the Tribe system (though he's a catcher, so there's a big positional difference). In terms of a middle infielder, Erik Gonzalez is a bit closer to helping, but probably has a lower ceiling. Jose Ramirez would be a great fit for Oakland, who could put him at second base for 2015, though his value is higher than Barreto. If you think Francisco Lindor is ready though, and don't see Jason Kipnis getting moved off second base, Ramirez's greatest value to the team is as a trading chip.
-
Package A: Lonnie Chisenhall, Danny Salazar, Cody Anderson, Erik Gonzalez
Package B: Lonnie Chisenhall, Trevor Bauer, Cody Anderson, Jose Ramirez
Either of those two groups of players would seem to have more value than what Oakland just accepted. So, would you have been willing to ship either of those groups to land Josh Donaldson???
Inspired by Bluebird Banter's Minor Leaguer, I've finished the current edition of our new 40-man transit map as of 4:00 p.m. this Saturday with the trade of Sean Nolin, Kendall Graveman, and Brett Lawrie (and minor league shortstop Franklin Barreto, who isn't on the 40-man roster).
And they're like, "The Yankees have scored. Damn right, the Yankees have scored. But oh wait, the Yankees can't score!" Pitchers and catchers report in 81 days.
The rumors were flying yesterday in the Yankees Universe. It was reported that the Yankees had made Max Scherzer, as in Max "One of the two best pitchers available on the market" Scherzer, a six to seven year offer to join their rotation. Although they were just rumors, it definitely caused a buzz around here.
Comments of the Day
First we were dealing with the aftermath of the Blue Jays main trade. One Greg Kirkland reminded people that the Yankees needed offense before the Blue Jays &Red Sox made their moves.
Andrew also weighed in with his thoughts on Billy Beane's move.
Now onto the Max Scherzer stuff. As thoughts were bouncing around, so was the humor.
Not everyone got the joke though. No worries, we were all new once upon a time. Except for LTL I think.
Harlan and I don't see any reason to worry about the Yankees potentially relying on the Triage Triad to bounce back next year...
I'm here for you, Waffles!
Shockingly, talks of the Yankees signing Yoan Moncada led to puns.
Still nothing confirmed, except that the thought of Scherzer in our rotation is pretty enticing.
Again, we got jokes!
Finally, Q-TDSK brings up a great point about why the Yankees should not always try and match Boston move for move.
GIF of the Day
Poop indeed, Ron Swanson!
Honorable Mod Mention
Wise words from Harlan on the subject of trade proposals. Remember, both teams have needs and quantity does not equal quality.
Fun Questions
If the Yankees signed Scherzer, what do you think the rotation would look like at the beginning of the year?
If the Yankees are planning on signing Scherzer, here's hoping they do it sooner rather than later. The waiting game sucks. Meanwhile, the game of football is being played today. Feel free to use this as your open thread. Will LTL spoil my fantasy playoff dreams? Will Andrew go for broke?
Milkshake. I parodied the song Milkshake. I think that's a new low.
General manager Dave Stewart said the Diamondbacks' were high on Cuban power bat Yasmany Tomas during this month's general managers meetings, and now we know how high.
Yasmany Tomas' six-year, $68.5 million deal will become the largest contract given to a free agent in D-backs history. The previous high contract given to a free agent by the D-backs was the four-year, $52.4 million deal that brought left-hander Randy Johnson to Arizona prior to the 1999 season.
For the past two years, nearly every Diamondbacks transaction has been met with raised eyebrows throughout the baseball industry. Their latest move drew the same reaction — only in a good way.
