Winter, in the northern hemisphere, may have just started, but we are already closer to the Blue Jays' first pitch of 2014 than their last one of 2013. Finally, we are now more than half-way through the 4,395-hour long offseason!
At 4:29 pm (all times Eastern) on September 29, 2013, Ryan Goins lined out against the Rays' Fernando Rodney to end the Blue Jays' comeback attempt as well as their forgettable 2013 season. The Blue Jays will be facing the Rays again to start the 2014 season, this time at Tropicana Field, on March 31 (Jose Reyes starting it off with a homer off of David Price perhaps?). The time of the game has not been announced as of the time of writing, but if we assume a 7:15 pm first pitch, the midpoint between the two pitches would've been early this morning: 5:52 am on December 30, 2013.
It would be a day longer before we pass the midpoint between Major League Baseball pitches in Toronto. The Blue Jays' Home Opener will be at 7:07 pm on April 4 against the Yankees, so we will pass the half-way point on January 1, 2014 at 5:48 am.
The Blue Jays' first spring training game is scheduled for 1:05 pm on February 26. That's only 1395 hours away!
One of the greatest defensive centerfielders in Angels history, Devon White got an undeserved reputation as a malingerer and was traded way too early (and for way too little) and happily went on to bigger and better things beyond a franchise mired in perpetual transition. Born in Jamaica, Devo was drafted out of Park West high school in Manhattan in the 6th round of the 1981 draft.
Decades are arbitrary barriers. If the decade of 1987 to 97 is considered, Devon White was the Centerfielder of the Decade. In 1987 the defensive measurement Total Fielding Runs Above Average had him saving 27 runs with his defense. Some players play a decade or more with fine stats in the outfield, are never seen as a liability and never save that many. His 2.7 Defensive Wins Above Replacement in 1987 is the sixth best by an Angels player in a single season ever and his 6.8 dWAR as a Halo is the eighth best mark in club history. His Power-Speed Number of 27.4 in 1987 is the fourth best ever by an Angel, behind Mike Trout's 2012 and '13 and Bobby Bonds 1977 season. His 123 Stolen Bases rank seventh in club history.
Devo played four complete seasons after two years of coming up for a quick taste of major league life in 1985 and '86. He was traded to Toronto after the 1990 seasons and thrived there - winning two world series rings along with a third with the Florida Marlins in 1997. Meanwhile the Angels got Luis Sojo and Junior Felix for him from the Blue Jays. Not the club' smartest move, proudest moment or anything to ever brag about.
I am horrible at keeping new year's resolutions, but I figure that posting the baseball-related ones here, on record, would help keep me on track (I conveniently skipped out on making them last year). One of the resolutions I made (and kept) for 2013 was to save money for the inevitable Blue Jays playoff tickets I would need to buy. Well, since I still have a full piggy bank, I'll put "attend a postseason game" on my resolution list:
Improve my writing and decrease the mailed-in post : real post ratio.
Attend a Major League Baseball postseason game... whether or not the Blue Jays happen to be playing in October.
Visit Manchester, New Hampshire to watch the Fisher Cats play.
Visit Boston and watch a game in Fenway Park.
Be less frustrated at dumb plays and Blue Jays losses.
Be less frustrated at Blue Jays analysts and talk-show hosts.
Frank Thomas' strongest case for the Hall of Fame lies within.
Last year's Blue Jays commercials represented a bit of a change from previous seasons' commercials, in that there was a definite focus on the fans. Check out this one and see for yourself:
That's all well and good, but there's something to be said for featuring the players who you are going out to see play ball when you purchase a ticket.
Let's look back at some comedic commercials from the mid- to late-2000s which had a larger player focus.
This is my personal favourite, although I can't seem to embed it, so here is the link. Hilariously enough there was a bit of controversy surrounding the ad and it was forced to be edited to include a disclaimer against trying this at home. Pillow fighting. Don't do it at home.
Finally, here are three slightly older commercials (I believe?), none of which have dialogue and are pretty darn funny in their own way.
Pink Uniforms
Maple Syrup
Frozen
This has been a mailed-in post, which is what I do best. I hope you enjoyed. Have a safe and happy New Year everyone!
Hope you all are having a good start to 2014 today and are happy with the way you're previous year unfolded. One group of people who aren't too pleased about 2013 are the Blue Jays and I'm sure Alex Anthopoulos is glad to see the back of his most trying year at the helm. There was a lot of story lines that emerged in 2013 and (Spoiler Alert) they were all of the depressing nature. Below is a quick rundown of the year's events and the bold ones will be in the poll to decide what you folks think was the biggest story of the past 12 months.
April: The team got off to a rough start to the year and things were looking pretty dim. Jose Reyes got seriously injured and Munenori Kawasaki was called up to replace him. Former Blue Jays draft pick Jake Eliopoulos passed away as well.
June: The draft took place and the Blue Jays drafted (and failed to sign) Phil Bickford.Brandon Morrow hit the DL with soreness.The lone bright spot of the year occurred with an 11-game win streak in the middle of June.
Happy new year, Bluebird Banterers! Hopefully the winter holidays have been treating you well. I know that Tom Dakers has been enjoying his time in the Dominican Republic. There hasn't been a lot of news to write about, but here are three anyway.
Breaking (Not Really) News: John Gibbons has not been fired
This morning, Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith reminded us of the "rolling contract' manager John Gibbons received when he returned to the Blue Jays in October 2013. Since the Blue Jays didn't fire him by December 31, his 2014 option was automatically picked up and he automatically gets an option for 2015. Really nothing new here--the same thing will happen on January 2015 if he doesn't get canned this year--but it's good to remember that he will never become a "lame duck" manager and he'll enjoy at least one full year's salary if he gets fired. For a reason that I do not fully understand (it isn't really explored in the linked piece), Jays Journal tweeted out that that the "funky option" is hurting the Blue Jays:
I am a John Gibbons fan so I am naturally biased here, but I think that the "rolling contract" he received should be a model for manager and general manger contracts (I wrote that back when Gibbons was first hired). Alex Anthopoulos announced in August that he had no plans to fire Gibbons, so I am surprised at the surprise some Blue Jays fans have displayed over this "news". Anyway, back to why it was a good deal. Since there will never be a "contract year", neither the manager or the club would have to deal with the distraction of a contract negotiations. The club would be comfortable knowing its financial risks, as the manager is always guaranteed between one and two full seasons (the latter in the unlikely situation where a manager is fired between January 1 and Opening Day), and there will be no need to lock someone up for multiple years to keep him from walking.
Roy Halladay Appreciation Day
Take out your calendars and block off all appointments on Saturday, January 11 because Bluebird Banter and the Jays Days Beer Club will be holding a Roy Halladay Appreciation Day in Toronto. More details to come....
Links
No, it's not the Monday Morning Media Mashup (which is on indefinite hiatus) but here are three Jays-related links:
At 17-20 Million, Is Ubaldo Jimenez Outside of Blue Jays Price Range? - Jays Journal Kyle Franzoni noted a Cleveland Plain Dealer report that Ubaldo Jimenez is asking for $17 to $20 million per year over four years. So is that out of the Blue Jays' price range? It damn better be--he really isn't worth that much and I would very much be surprised if a team goes past $15 million for the 29-year-old righty. But of course, anyone familiar with negotiations would know that the ask is generally higher than what one would settle with. Jimenez was my "pick" and back in November where I wrote that $13.5 or $14 million would be an acceptable annual price for a four-year deal; I still think he's not worth more than that.
Blue Jays mum on Masahiro Tanaka - Toronto Star Alex Anthopoulos spoke with Brendan Kennedy and very vaguely hinted that he has made inquiries on Masahiro Tanaka (who is a Cleveland Indian, according to his SB Nation player profile), which is good, because it would be stupid if he hadn't. The deadline for Tanaka to sign is 5 pm on January 24, and with the market holding off on Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Matt Garza until the Tanaka situation clarifies, we may be seeing a quiet first-half of January. Anthopoulos had previously stated that he believes that the prices for starting pitchers will be going down in January, and he right now he thinks that, if he acquires a starting pitcher, there is an even chance that the pitcher would come via free agency.
More Talk Of Football At BMO Field - Drunk Jays Fans Andrew Stoeten writes about the (still remote) possibility that the Toronto Argonauts could be moving out of the Rogers Centre to BMO Field. But it would take a lot of work to fit the monstrously-sized CFL field into tiny BMO--maybe they could build moving stands at one end or something.
One of the things that was lost when Bluebird Banter and SB Nation switched to this spiffy site design over a year ago was the blogroll section right on our front page, where we recognized the other folks who blog about the Blue Jays. As a Blue Jays fan, I am very thankful that we have a bounty of great Jays blogs out there that continue to produce content no matter how bad a season gets to be or quiet it gets in the offseason. Here they are in no particular order (actually I wrote them in order of how much I liked them then randomized the list here):
Breaking Blue - A new member of the Jays blog family, sabermetrically-inclined.
Gamereax - Personal blog of Chris Toman (and his brother Dan), go there for the fun GIFs, stay for the excellent analysis pieces.
Tao of Stieb - It has been quiet lately, but when the Tao blogs, he generally does it right.
Blue Jays from Away - A blog that was started in Germany by an expatriate Jays fan, it is now focused on the Blue Jays' minor leagues.
Blue Jays Aggregator - I visit this feeder site daily to see what all the other blogs on this list are writing about.
Mop-Up Duty - One of the blogs that have been around forever and still going strong
Blue Jays Plus - Gideon Turk may still be in high school but is clearly a smart cookie; his blog delivers quality content on a regular basis. It has been fun seeing the site improve since its debut.
Blue Jay Hunter - New papa Ian Hunter continues to post regularly on his excellent blog (another one that has been around forever).
Batter's Box - Possibly the oldest Blue Jays blog still in existence (founded in 2001), Batter's Box has a great community of readers and commenters.
Drunk Jays Fans - Started by Andrew Stoeten in late 2006, DJF is now part of theScore's rapidly-growing family. Stoeten continues to give excellent analyses and opinions while using language that would not be accepted here on Bluebird Banter.
The Mockingbird - Jon Hale doesn't post very often but when he does it is generally some impressive analysis and well thought-out opinions.
Jays Prospects - A website started by MLB Fan Cave dweller April Whitzman, with a tonne of prospect interviews. Unfortunately it was attacked some time ago and it's being blocked by my firewall.
Hum and Chuck - Another great well-written fan blog.
North of the Border - Gregor Chisholm, writer at BlueJays.com, often includes some great little gems and full interview transcripts here.
If I did not include your blog on this list it does not (necessarily) mean I hate you. Do feel free to add a link in the comments and I will definitely give your work a look-see.
EDIT: See, I knew I forgot something.
Jays Journal - A Jays blog with daily content over on the Fansided network, right now they're working up their top prospects list. Much apologies to the JJ folks! Thanks, REMO, for the reminder.
Toronto's creative deal with Gibbons vested on Jan. 1.
While you might have been kissing your significant other or raising a glass of champagne on New Year's, Blue Jays manager John Gibbons' contract option for the 2015 season vested the very second the clock struck midnight.
A unique clause in the Toronto skipper's contract stipulates that, as long he isn't fired, his contract is extended for another season at the beginning of every year, as Sportsnet's Ben Nicholson-Smith reports. It sounds a little strange, but to put it plainly, Gibbons has the job ... until he doesn't.
He got off to a somewhat disappointing start in his first season calling the shots for the Jays. The team finished 74-88 under his guidance after Toronto was forced to replace 2012 manager John Farrell — who vacated the position in order to manage the division rival Red Sox.
For Gibbons and the Blue Jays' organization, operating on what functions as a perpetual two-year deal — that can, of course, be terminated at any time — takes some of the anxiety and guesswork out of the equation.
Other than Gibbons' innovative paperwork, Toronto has been relatively quiet so far this winter. However, that could change if the roaring silence coming from the Blue Jays front office is any indication that general manager Alex Anthopoulos is planning a surprise attack on the open market like he did last offseason when he acquired Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson from the Miami Marlins— but there's no conspicuous indication that is the case.
Next season, Gibbons' will attempt to lead the Jays to an improvement on their last-place finish in the AL East, and all he has to worry about when it comes to his contract is not getting fired.
Now that we are in the year 2014, a very important question is upon us: who were the best pair of Blue Jays to wear #20 and #14 in a particular season? You probably won't be able to guess this one.
* Rob Ducey also wore #40 in 1988 ** Woody Williams also wore $30 and #54 in 1997 *** Rod Barajas also wore #23 in 2008
A limitation to this analysis is that three of the players on the list had switched uniform numbers in mid-season, and unfortunately there is no splits based on what number they were wearing. So here we simplify by pretending they wore either #20 or #14 the whole season. For players who played for multiple teams in a particular season, the fWAR numbers listed are for their contribution as Blue Jays only.
Who would've guessed that the best pair of #20 & #14 teammates would've been the 2000 tandem of Brad Fullmer and Dave Martinez? In 2000, DH Brad Fullmer slugged 32 homers with a .295/.340/.558 line with a wRC+ of 118 in 133 games. Dave Martinez, if you recall, was an August acquisition and still put up 0.8 WAR for the Jays. The right fielder hit .311/.393/.411 (wRC+ of 109) in 47 games with Toronto. Actually the Blue Jays were the fourth team Martinez suited up for in 2000, after the Rays, Cubs, and Rangers.
The worst pair--well, foursome--came in 2012 when Moises Sierra, Eric Thames, Jesse Chavez, and Bobby Korecky all had negative fWAR, leading to a pretty horrible sum.
If you'll recall, Vernon Wells was traded to the Angels during the 2011 Winter Tour which may mean something is amiss in Blue Jays land. There's already been a fair share of rumours that the Blue Jays could decide to run with Anthony Gose in their centre field spot cashing in on Rasmus' fairly high value right now. Or it could mean he didn't want a picture like this showing up again. Or it could mean there's a scheduling conflict with Colby Rasmus.
Since there's nothing else going on, let's get our speculating hats on!
With a new year upon us, we take a look at some of the Tribe players who are breakout candidates for 2014, beginning with 23 year-old flamethrower Danny Salazar.
It's fair to say Danny Salazar had a pretty impressive rookie season. The 23 year-old Dominican right-hander rose through the ranks at a rapid pace to become one of the Tribe's most exciting pitchers. He impressed us all with his devastating fastball, striking out batters at a higher rate than any starting pitcher in franchise history (min. 50 IP). In his 56 innings in an Indians uniform (including the Wild Card Game), Salazar showed enough of his talent on the big stage to get Tribe fans all kinds of excited about his future.
Salazar began 2013 as Baseball Prospectus's 6th ranked prospect in the Indians organisation, and ranked 11th on Minor League Ball's list. He opened the season at AA Akron before quickly rising to AAA Columbus. Danny enjoyed a successful stint with the Clippers, well enough to earn his Major League debut at home against the Toronto Blue Jays on July 11th. Over 6 strong innings, Salazar out-dueled R.A. Dickey (the reigning NL Cy Young winner) for his first MLB victory, surrendering just 2 hits, 1 run, and 1 walk, with 7 strikeouts. A fine afternoon's work by all standards.
It was a superb start to his career, enough to earn a recall to the big league club in early August, and he played an important role in the Tribe's push for the postseason. Salazar made nine more starts during August and September, seamlessly slotting into the rotation. Despite being placed on a strict innings-limit that often saw him forced out of games earlier than most fans would have liked, Salazar brought a degree of energy in each of his starts that really helped propel the Indians.
So successful was Salazar that when the Tribe made the postseason, it was young Danny who inherited the responsibility of taking the mound against the Tampa Bay Rays in Cleveland's first playoff game since 2007. It felt strange to place a season's worth of hopes and hard work in the relatively unproven hands of a rookie pitcher who'd only been with the club a couple months. If the pressure and responsibility weighed heavily upon Salazar, you couldn't tell from his electrifying start to the game. He cruised through the first 2 innings, striking out Wil Myers, James Loney, and Evan Longoria as the home crowd roared their approval. Salazar's level of calm and poise in that atmosphere was extraordinary.
Unfortunately the good times didn't last as Salazar came undone in the 3rd and 4th innings. However, for a young pitcher in his first Major League season, making his first playoff start in a high-stakes elimination game, it was a valiant effort to say the least. Those first couple of innings captured people's attention, effectively putting Salazar on the map as a player to watch in the future.
Which is exactly where we find Danny today. Predictions this time last year saw him as a relief pitcher. Now Salazar is featured to be a prominent member of the Indians rotation and a future ace if we're really lucky. He has the tools to do it. That high 90s fastball is damn near un-hittable and Salazar's slider is developing nicely as well. If he can bring his changeup to a similar level, Salazar has the makings of an elite pitcher who could potentially dominate in Cleveland for years to come. An enticing proposition, no?
2014 is set to be an exciting year for Salazar. After whetting our appetites over the course of 10 big league starts and an intense playoff game, the anticipation ahead of the new season is at fever pitch as far as Salazar is concerned. Terry Francona, Mickey Callaway, and the rest of the organisation clearly have an enormous amount of faith and belief in the young pitcher's abilities. Now Salazar has an entire season to showcase his remarkable talents and realize his enormous potential.
Today the Blue Jays announced that Bullpen Coach Pat Hentgen has been 're-assigned', likely to a roving minor league instructor, to let him be with his family during his fathers 'health problems'. I wish Pat the best and hope all goes well for his father.
His role goes to former MLB pitcher Bob Stanley. He was a reliever and often closer for the Red Sox from 1977-1989, putting up a 115-97 record, with a 3.64 ERA and 132 saves. He also made 85 career starts. You mostly likely remember him from the 1986 World Series, playing a role in the Sox' big loss in Game 6, the Bill Buckner game. Stanley was on the mound when the ball rolled threw Buckner's legs.
Stanley was pitching coach for the Jays' Triple-A team for 2 seasons and has been in the Jays' organization for 3 years.
The Blue Jays, quiet for much of the off-season, still figure to acquire one and possibly two starting pitchers once the logjam caused by Tanaka starts to resolve.
The Jays are a leading candidate to sign either Santana or Jimenez; they have two protected first-round picks, Nos. 9 and 11, and would sacrifice only a second-rounder and the accompanying pool money for one of those free-agent right-handers.
I'd really like us to sign one of those guys, I think we can find a 5th starter out of the pile of guys we have in house, though picking up both would be interesting. I really want a real MLB second baseman as well.
I'm not sure Santana would be the best choice, it is tougher to pitch in the AL East than anywhere else, but he'd be more fun to watch than Thad Weber.
He also figures we could make an in-season trade if we need:
The Phillies' Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels both could be available before July 31, and the same goes for the Reds' Homer Bailey, Indians' Justin Masterson, Pirates' Francisco Liriano and Royals' James Shields if their respective clubs somehow fall out of contention.
He also suggested that Samardzija's price might come down during the season.
It's not all that much of a rumor, but it has been so quiet, I'll take anything. Thanks Ken.
Who posted the most comments on Bluebird Banter in 2013?
I'm back in the land of the ice and snow. Yesterday was a long day, the resort sent us to the airport long long before our flight, and, as you might imagine, there isn't all that much to do at the Punta Cana airport. Since it is a long flight from there to Calgary, we had time for two movies. The first was that stupid Sandra Bullock-Melissa McCarthy, cop movie (I guess it tells you how much I enjoyed it, I couldn't tell you the title), which wasn't improved by replacing every single swear and almost swear word with something that didn't make sense. I thought it was the worse movie I'd ever seen.
The second movie was Trouble with the Curve and had they shown that first, I'd have thought the other movie deserved an Oscar. If you wanted to teach a course in how to make a bad movie, you this would be the perfect example. The bad 'computer geek' guy had to say something evil in each and every scene he was in. His last scene, someone suggests Amy Adams should have a job with the team, he says 'but she's a girl'. It wasn't enough he was wrong and generally a lousy person, he had to be sexist too. Isn't it enough that he never watches baseball?
Never once did a scout use a stopwatch or a radar gun, but Clint Eastwood and Adams could tell a good pitch by the 'sound' it made.
And then they all get down on their #1 draft pick because he doesn't hit half a dozen pitches from someone he's never seen before (those swings did sort of remind me of JP swinging at pitches off the plate). Oh well, I gotta stop....there was so much wrong with that movie I could complain all day.
We land in Calgary at 2:00 AM, which would be 5:00 in the morning, Dominican time. Then it takes almost 2 hours for our bags to come, since there are few luggage guys working at that time in the morning, being that we are about the last flight of the day and it's about cold as it can get. It was about 4:30 when we got home. But it was a great holiday, though likely taxed my liver to the breaking point. The workers at our resort were very friendly. I gave one a Blue Jays cap, since he was so nice to us and was a fan.
Anyway, the reason for the post....SB sent out stats on our top 10 commenters, FanPost writers and FanShots.
Most Comments e&n4e 13758 MjwW 12276 Tom Dakers 9878 shortofbrillant 9805 ABsteve 7527 Belisarius 6222 Alan F. 5294 Minor Leaguer 4936 Bowling_Guy25 4894 GatorJay 4696
Great job all, but it is nice to see an Expos fan at the top of the list. A couple of words for Mr. Minor Leaguer, you don't want to come just 64 short of 5000, Things like that will cost you in the eyes of the Hall of Fame voters.
If you want to get on this list for next year...well, you can see want you need to do. Most of the ones on the list are GameThread regulars, that really bumps up your comment count.
Most FanPosts King Kelly 13 MjwW 12 e&n4e 8 Kraemer_17 8 MapleMan 7 Raffa 7 chasfh 6 Marcos Montenegro 5 JaysSaskatchewan 4 Frag 4
Good job King Kelly and MjwW.
I love the fanposts. We can always use more. I'm going to try to be better at moving them onto the front page, but maybe we'll do a month contest to see who does the most fanposts each month, to try to encourage you all to share your opinions more often.
Most FanShots Tom Dakers 26 yleviticus 7 Mr. Reynolds 5 radivel 4 hansdampf 3 Raffa 3 Goldenhawk99 2 Frag 2 crawford_todd 2 JaysSaskatchewan 2
The FanShots are a problem, buried in the bottom corner of the front page. I think we'll try to more then to the front page so they can be noticed more.
The markets for both Santana and Jimenez have been slow developing this offseason. The two players are both seeking big deals, but come with some risk that they will not perform to the level a team would want for the money. Furthermore, both men turned down a qualifying offer from their 2013 teams, meaning any other club that signs them this offseason would have to surrender a high draft pick.
The Blue Jays' starting staff for 2014 currently consists of R.A. Dickey, Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle, and J.A. Happ, with the fifth starter still undecided. The team lost Josh Johnson to free agency. With a still-potent offense and a good front to the rotation, adding one more top-notch starter could elevate the Blue Jays to contender status.
Toronto is coming off a disappointing last-place finish in the always-tough AL East, winding up with a 74-88 record. The team had hoped to compete after a couple of big trades that brought Dickey, Buehrle, Johnson and shortstop Jose Reyes to Canada. Injuries and ineffectiveness to the starting staff derailed any playoff notions, however.
Santana comes with a bit less risk than Jimenez, but is also asking for more money. He has maintained an ERA below 4.00 in three of the last four seasons, with a 3.87 ERA overall in that time frame. His 2013 campaign was arguably the best season of his career, as he posted a 3.24 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP for the Royals. At last report, Santana is looking for a $112 million deal over five years.
Jimenez, meanwhile, may come with more upside than Santana and a potentially lower price tag. He has certainly had a higher peak than Santana, posting a 2.88 ERA and striking out 214 batters in 2010 with the Rockies. However, after a trade to Cleveland in mid-2011, Jimenez fell apart. Through 2012, he made 42 starts for the Indians and had a 5.32 ERA. However, he had a resurgence in 2013. After a slow start, Jimenez had a sterling 2.61 ERA over his final 28 starts, striking out over a batter per inning and holding opponents to a .664 OPS.
In addition to the Blue Jays, the Mariners and Diamondbacks both are looking at Santana and Jimenez, with Matt Garza also possibly in play. The interest of these two teams is contingent on them not landing Japanese ace Masahiro Tanaka, however.
You know, we've talked about his shortcomings enough around here, so as a birthday present, today I won't. Promise. Not one single derogatory comment.
JP is still in his prime, there is still a ton of talent there, maybe the Rangers will be able to bring it out. If you are a baseball player and you only pick one really outstanding skill, power would be the one to pick.
JP had 64 home runs for the Jays, putting him at 30th on the franchise leader board. 3 more than Darren Fletcher, second to Ernie Whitt among Blue Jays catchers. His 193 RBI has him at 45th in team history. I won't mention where he is in strikeouts. He did throw out 73 base stealers, 26% of those that tried to steal against him.
Happy birthday JP, I hope things go well for you with the Rangers. You are still in your prime, not too late to become the All-Star catcher we thought we were getting when you hit those 2 home runs in your first MLB game.
This could be the hugest deal of them all. Remember folks, Prince Fielder and Robinson Cano need to be dealt with severely, not with lots of hope but with lots of hitting the inside corner where their fat wrists cannot do damage.
In other news about the players, the Angels signed Justin Thomas to a Minor League deal. He's expected to start in AAA, he is 27 and played in Japan and Oakland's Triple-A team last year. Also they re-signed pitcher Jarrett Grube.
Off the field, Kole Calhoun had Chinese food for dinner the other night. So what? He got the worst fortune (besides saying "You have been traded to the Marlins") imaginable: CLICK THIS LINK to see it. What is the worst fortune cookie fortune you ever got?
This one is sad: Building a whole team with players who never won a world series, a Cy Young, an MVP nor made the Hall of Fame - what is the best team you can come up with? CLICK THIS LINK - there are a few Angels there.
Mike Trout was on the field... pregame for the Philadelphia Eagles playoff game (they lost at home to the Saints, imagine that, an Angel rooting against the Saints). Anyway, his lawyer, I mean his BROTHER, Tyler Trout, instagrammed a cool pic of them and their dates CLICK THIS LINK.
The Monkey With A Halo blog has started their Top 30 Angels Prospects Countdown with Brian Moran, who the Angels got on a rule 5 deal from the Mariners via the Blue Jays. CLICK THIS LINK to read all about the guy.
Oh and Angels pitcher Matt Shoemaker tweeted that he loves Michigan with this photo:
Jim is thawing out of a deep freeze out in the midwest as well and should be back with his regular links tomorrow!
The Blue Jays have been linked to Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana, which pitcher would be a better choice for the club?
This offseason, for a number of reasons, feels like an anxious one. The 2013 Blue Jays were monumentally disappointing, but too much was invested in the team to blow it all up and start again. Furthermore, there is reason to believe that this team will rebound in a significant way in 2014. However, there is also reason to believe that real upgrades need to be made for this team to be challenge for a playoff spot.
So far said upgrades have been slow in the coming. Toronto replaced the hopeless J.P. Arencibia with Dioner Navarro, who is likely more competent but far from a star. There has been little to know movement on finding a starting second baseman, something which this team desperately needs. Even though catcher and second base were complete and utter black holes coming out of the 2013 season, the most publicized area of need has been the starting rotation. The Blue Jays have been involved in many trade rumours surrounding starting pitching in the offseason, but prices are steep and nothing has come to fruition. In recent days rumours are have been swirling that the Jays might try their luck in the free agent market with either Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez.
Either of these pitchers would be an upgrade in the Blue Jays rotation, but which one would be a better buy? Although it's hard to know the answer without knowing the price tag attached, it appears that Ervin Santana is likely to be more costly. MLB Trade Rumors ranked Ervin Santana as their number six free agent and Jimenez as their number 11. They projected Santana for a five-year $75 million dollar deal and Jimenez for a four-year $52 million dollar deal, which is a fairly significant gap. Additionally, there was chatter earlier in the offseason that Santana was looking for a nine-figure deal, which I would guess he is unlikely to get. Stranger things have happened though, and the starting pitching market remains murky to say the least. For the sake of this comparison the only important thing to remember is that those who are in the know see Santana getting a bigger contract than Jimenez, the gap between them is unclear.
In order to compare the two pitchers the first thing to do is take a look at the basics. Here's how the two look in terms of some of the more rudimentary information:
Name
Ervin Santana
Ubaldo Jimenez
Age
31
29 (turns 30 later this month)
Height
6-2
6-5
Weight
185
210
Fastball Velocity (2013)
92.4
91.7
Career Starts
265
211
Career Innings Pitched
1686.2
1275.2
Career WAR
19.6
23.6
Career RA9 WAR
22.1
21.3
Draft Pick Compensation
Yes
Yes
These numbers aren't all that dissimilar. In order to get a better look I decided to compare the two during three time periods: the last five years, the last three years, and last year, in order to try and determine which pitcher would be a better choice for the Blue Jays.
The Last Five Years
Pitcher
GS
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
GB%
ERA
FIP
WAR
RA9-WAR
Santana
151
980
6.87
2.79
1.30
41.4%
4.03
4.49
7.5
12.3
Jimenez
161
987.1
8.47
3.92
0.74
46.3%
3.88
3.68
18.7
16.6
This is not much of a comparison as Jimenez bests Ervin Santana handily in virtually every single category. That would seem to end the debate right there, but this particular comparison is in an unfair one because it includes a lot of work by Jimenez that is no longer reflective of his abilities going forward. In 2009 and 2010 Jimenez was a dominant fireballer with the Rockies and he no longer has the velocity to be that pitcher anymore. In fact, he has lost 4.4 mph off his fastball on average since his career year in 2010. The last three years are more reflective of what these two pitchers are capable of.
The Last Three Years
Pitcher
GS
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
GB%
ERA
FIP
WAR
RA9-WAR
Santana
95
617.2
6.88
2.66
1.33
44.3
3.85
4.45
4.6
8.5
Jimenez
95
547.2
8.50
4.16
0.95
43.1
4.45
4.04
6.6
3.1
This comparison gets interesting because your preference here depends on your means for valuing pitchers. Santana clearly prevented runs better, but he was seriously outperforming his peripherals. On the other hand Jimenez had a bloated ERA but the underlying numbers suggest he was the superior pitcher.
Although bigger samples are almost always better than small ones, more recent information is better than old information, all things being equal. For that reason let's take a look at the 2013 seasons that both pitchers enjoyed.
The 2013 Season
Pitcher
GS
IP
K/9
BB/9
HR/9
GB%
ERA
FIP
WAR
RA9-WAR
Santana
32
211
6.87
2.16
1.11
46.2%
3.24
3.90
3.0
4.5
Jimenez
32
182.2
9.56
3.94
0.79
43.9%
3.30
3.43
3.2
3.2
Both pitchers were excellent in their contract years. Jimenez adjusted to his diminishing velocity by throwing far more sliders and splitters than before, while Santana increased his ground ball rate perhaps due to the addition of a two-seam fastball. If his agent is to believed there might even be another new pitch on the way.
Looking at these numbers in the three charts above the choice between these guys isn't clear cut. Ervin Santana has demonstrated more control than his counterpart which is part of the reason he is able to log so many more innings in the same number of starts. Jimenez's ability to miss bats continues to astound even as his velocity has fallen precipitously. According to fielding independent metrics he has consistently been the better pitcher but his velocity loss and his inability to find the strike zone at times are legitimate causes for concern.
The choice between Jimenez and Santana largely comes down personal preference. The Blue Jays may not be the team making that choice, but there are war rooms where this comparison will be discussed. If you are looking for reliability Santana is the choice. If you are willing to roll the dice on a guy who will give you fewer innings but probably a better pitcher then Jimenez is your guy. The reason Santana's price tag will likely be higher is because people are willing to pay for a known quantity and durability is at a premium in this league. The 2013 Blue Jays perfectly demonstrated the kind of ugliness that rears its head when a team's rotation can't stay healthy.
That said, I think that Ubaldo Jimenez would be a better choice for the Blue Jays than Ervin Santana. Jimenez is a year younger and the Blue Jays might be able to get him on a shorter term than Santana. A great deal of Santana's efficacy has come from his ability to prevent runs better than his peripherals suggest he should, and that's a tough thing to bank on going forward. It's also noteworthy that Ervin Santana has always struggled when it comes to allowing home runs. This is especially troubling because he has yet to pitch in a park nearly as hitter-friendly as the Rogers Centre. After seeing R.A. Dickey's case of acute gopheritis last season, I don't think that's something fans want to witness again.
Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana are both good pitchers who would be upgrades in virtually any rotation. Most teams would be glad to have one or the other, especially the pitching starved Jays. Given the question marks the Blue Jays have in their rotation more of a "sure thing" like Ervin Santana might be appealing to the team but it's also possible they would see Jimenez as a better fit. If you were a gambling man, or woman, it would probably be unwise to stake much of a fortune on either Jimenez or Santana taking the mound for the Jays in 2014, but given the amount of rumours regarding the pair it's at least worth contemplating which pitcher would look better in blue.
There was a good post this morning by Nick Ashbourne outlining the differences between Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana, both rumoured to be attracting interest by the Blue Jays. I'm going to take a more cynical take on the situation and assume Alex Anthopoulos gets shut out on the pitching front for the rest of the offseason and he takes his current options into Spring Training. While R.A. Dickey, Brandon Morrow, and Mark Buehrle are pretty stuck in at the front of the pack, the competition for the caboose of the starting rotation is fierce. Esmil Rogers and J.A. Happ didn't do anything last year to play their way out of a job, but three formerly injured young pitchers in Kyle Drabek, Dustin McGowan and Drew Hutchison are going to want a shot at the spots as well. Furthermore, minor leaguers Marcus Stroman and Sean Nolin are knocking at the door and may grab a spot with the team. Let's not forget about lesser-hyped pitchers in Todd Redmond and Ricky Romero as well.
It seems that 2013 rotation members Happ and Rogers have the inside track for the last two jobs and will go into Spring Training with a leg up on their competition. Happ pitched to a 4.56 ERA and 4.31 FIP and is projected to stay in a similar range this upcoming season. Rogers ended a surprising 2013 with a 4.77 ERA and a 4.73 FIP with projections for 2014 actually suggesting an improvement likely in part due to his high 15.8% HR/FB rate this past season. I don't think many Blue Jays fans would be angry if these starters returned to the rotation in 2014, assuming Anthopoulos fails to make another signing of course.
There isn't too much to say about Drabek, McGowan or Hutchison that hasn't been said already, with all three players fully healed from their respective surgeries and ready to make an impact. If Drabek can find the strike zone he has as good a chance as any of the Blue Jays at grabbing a spot in the rotation and while Hutchison seems to have been forgotten by many fans, he is only 23-years-old and may be a surprise this March. It would be a great story if McGowan returned to the rotation, but it's tough to predict how his arm will hold up under all of the innings.
Prospects Marcus Stroman and Sean Nolin are dark horse picks to grab a spot or two in the rear end of the rotation this spring, with Stroman quickly becoming one of the top prospects in the whole division. The Blue Jays are doing everything they can to ensure the former Blue Devil ends up in the rotation eventually and many scouts think he is ready to make the jump up to the big leagues this year. Sean Nolin is much closer to his ceiling already and besides his atrocious major league debut, the lefty had a fairly good 2013.
Less 'sexy' options include Todd Redmond and Ricky Romero, who both have shown their capable of pitching in a big league rotation. Redmond made 14 starts with Toronto this past year and had a 4.40 FIP, seemingly coming out of nowhere to be a fine back end option. Although he's not a well-talked about option, there's a possibility he could grab a fifth spot when all is said and done. Laslty, Ricky Romero may rise from the dead and return to the Blue Jays starting rotation, which everyone is hoping for, but no one is expecting.
Personally, if Alex Anthopoulos adds no more pitchers to the squad I won't be as worried as other fans. There's tremendous depth at the back end of the rotation and it would be exciting to see all these pitchers vie for a spot in Spring Training. My prediction would be that J.A. Happ and Marcus Stroman break camp with the team and Esmil Rogers finds himself back in the bullpen. The Buffalo Bisons starting five won't look too shabby in their own right and should provide a number of replacements if anything goes wrong with the big squad. I'm sure there is a ton of opinions about this topic so let us know who you think will take the final two spots of the starting rotation this season and also how upset you will you be if Alex Anthopoulos makes no further starting rotation additions.
