So there is another little fantasy signing that we can stop dreaming about, A.J. Burnett signed a one-year, $16 million contract, with the Phillies.

If the Jays are going to upgrade the starting rotation, and that's a big if, we are pretty much down to Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana...unless they want to take a flier on Suk-Min Yoon. With pitchers heading to Dunedin this week, if they are going to add, now is the time.

Maybe they will be looking at a pair of Cubans

Odrisamer Despaigne and Aledmys Diaz are having a showcase for major league teams. Despaigne is a right-handed pitch, 27, I don't think I'd want him jumping straight into the rotations

Diaz might be more interesting to the Jays:

Diaz, 23, has primarily been a shortstop in Cuba, but has generally received mixed reviews for his defense and may need to change positions. Scouts have raved about his potential to grow into a big bat, however. During the 2011-12 season -- his last before defecting -- Diaz hit .315/.404/.500 with 12 home runs.

We could use someone to play second base that has "potential to grow into a big bat".

With all the prospects rankings basically released by now, it seems like a good time to put together a team of the highest upside players in the Blue Jays organization. A little bit of positional adjustments need to be made, but for the most part each position is taken by the player with the highest upside in the minor league system. Today we'll start with the four infielders, which contain no players close to the major leagues, but multiple players with high ceilings.

First Base- L.B. Dantzler

You could pick any of Dantzler, Rowdy Tellez, and Matt Dean for this position, but Dantzler is the player that showed his upside at the highest level of the minor leagues of the three. The 22-year-old was drafted during the most recent draft in the 14th round out of the University of South Carolina. He was quickly sent to Vancouver where he hit .302/.385/.504 with nine home runs in 59 games. He'll turn 23 in May so there's a good chance he ends 2014 in Dunedin, although if he keeps up his torrid pace, New Hampshire isn't completely out of the question.  You can see the pop in his bat in the video below:

Second Base- Franklin Barreto

The Venezuelan 17-year-old has only played shortstop since signing with the Blue Jays, but he's only 5'9" and doesn't have the greatest footwork, so he really could end up anywhere on the diamond. He split time between the GCL and Bluefield in 2013 hitting well in the former, but not that great in the latter. There's a ton of time for Barreto to improve both offensively and defensively, but scouts already like what they see. Keith Law ranked Barreto 8th in his top 10 and said:

If Franklin Barreto stays at shortstop, which most scouts seem to think he will, he has a chance to be an impact guy with the bat.

Here's how Barreto looks at the plate:

Shortstop- Dawel Lugo

The 19-year-old Dominican is the other high-ceiling shortstop prospect with Barreto and stands a little taller at 6'0'. The right-handed hitter split time between Bluefield and Vancouver in 2013 putting up a line of .284/.301/.437 with seven home runs. It seems opinions are split on whether Lugo can stay at shortstop or not, but he's shown to be a great hitter, which is a good sign going forward. Here's a bit of his defence:

Third Base- Mitch Nay

The 20-year-old right-handed hitter spent all of 2013 in Bluefield, plus a playoff appearance for Vancouver playing third base and hitting .300/.364/.426 with six home runs in Bluefield and was the 'sexy' position player prospect for the Blue Jays in the rankings this offseason. There's a chance Nay is moved to first base eventually, like what the team did with Matt Dean, but it seems he'll get another season to show what he's got at the hot corner. If Nay can keep hitting, there's no reason not to expect him to move quickly through the low minors. Here's Nay taking some hacks last spring:

Is there any positions where you folks would have a different player? Let us know!

Good news, Sportsnet will carry all the Blue Jaysspring games on radio and on audio at sportsnet.ca (no word on who replaces Jack Morris as Jerry Howarth's partner in the booth) (I see on sportsnet.ca's broadcaster page they only list Howarth and Mike Wilner as radio announcers, but they still show Dirk Hayhurst) and they will have 11 games on TV. The full schedule is here:

February

Wednesday, Feb. 26, Toronto @ Philadelphia, 1 p.m. ET (Sportsnet.ca)

Thursday, Feb. 27, Philadelphia @ Toronto, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT (Sportsnet ONE and Sportsnet.ca)

Friday, Feb. 28, Pittsburgh @ Toronto, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT (Sportsnet East, Ontario, West, Pacific and Sportsnet.ca)

March

Saturday, March 1, Toronto @ Baltimore, 12:30 p.m. ET (Sportsnet 590 The FAN)

Sunday, March 2, N.Y. Yankees @ Toronto, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT (Sportsnet East, Ontario, West and Pacific, Sportsnet 590 The FAN and Sportsnet 960 The FAN)

Monday, March 3, Toronto @ Minnesota, 1 p.m. ET (Sportsnet.ca)

Tuesday, March 4, Toronto @ Philadelphia, 6:30 p.m. ET (Sportsnet.ca)

Wednesday, March 5, Pittsburgh @ Toronto, 1 p.m. ET (Sportsnet.ca)

Thursday, March 6, Toronto @ Pittsburgh, 1 p.m. ET (Sportsnet.ca)

Friday, March 7, Tampa Bay @ Toronto, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT (Sportsnet East, Ontario, West, Pacific and Sportsnet.ca)

Saturday, March 8, Minnesota @ Toronto, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT (Sportsnet East, Ontario, West, Pacific and Sportsnet 590 The FAN)

Sunday, March 9, Toronto @ Houston, 12:30 p.m. ET/10:30 a.m. MT (Sportsnet 590 The FAN and Sportsnet 960 The FAN)

Tuesday, March 11, Toronto @ Detroit, 1 p.m. ET (Sportsnet 590 The FAN)

Wednesday, March 12, Tampa Bay @ Toronto, 1 p.m. ET (Sportsnet 590 The FAN)

Thursday, March 13, Houston @ Toronto, 1 p.m. ET (Sportsnet 590 The FAN)

Friday, March 14, Boston @ Toronto, 1 p.m. ET (Sportsnet 590 The FAN)

Saturday, March 15, Toronto @ Tampa Bay, 12:30 p.m. ET (Sportsnet 590 The FAN)

Sunday, March 16, Baltimore @ Toronto, 12:30 p.m. ET/10:30 a.m. MT (Sportsnet.ca and Sportsnet 960 The FAN)

Tuesday, March 18, Toronto @ Detroit, 1 p.m. ET (Sportsnet.ca)

Wednesday, March 19, Philadelphia @ Toronto, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT (Sportsnet ONE and Sportsnet.ca)

Thursday, March 20, Toronto @ Philadelphia, 1 p.m. ET (Sportsnet.ca)

Friday, March 21, Toronto @ Tampa Bay, 1 p.m. ET (Sportsnet.ca)

Saturday, March 22, Detroit @ Toronto, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT (Sportsnet Ontario, West, Pacific and Sportsnet 590 The FAN)

Sunday, March 23, Toronto @ N.Y. Yankees, 12:30 p.m. ET/10:30 a.m. MT (Sportsnet 590 The FAN and Sportsnet 960 The FAN)

Monday, March 24, Philadelphia @ Toronto, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT (Sportsnet East, Ontario, West, Pacific and Sportsnet.ca)

Tuesday, March 25, Toronto @ Pittsburgh, 1 p.m. ET (Sportsnet.ca)

Wednesday, March 26, N.Y. Yankees @ Toronto, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT (Sportsnet East, Ontario, West, Pacific and Sportsnet.ca)

Thursday, March 27, Toronto @ Philadelphia, 1 p.m. ET (Sportsnet.ca)

Friday, March 28, N.Y. Mets @ Toronto (in Montreal), 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT (Sportsnet 360, Pacific and Sportsnet.ca)

Saturday, March 29, N.Y. Mets @ Toronto (in Montreal), 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT (Sportsnet East, Ontario, West, Pacific Sportsnet 590 The FAN)

For those of you that get MLB.tv all those games will be available on that and, if we are lucky, some of the games will be broadcast by the other team's TV crew, giving us more chances to watch the Jays.

It is about time that Sportsnet covered all the spring games. Now we have to push them to have them all on TV. Maybe next year.

And, in case you were wondering, we'll have Game Threads up for all spring games.

I guess this counts as Blue Jays news at this point, doesn't it? Canadian superstar Brett Lawrie will be on the cover of MLB 14: The Show when it hits stores north of the border this year. After teammate Jose Bautista graced the Canadian cover last year, the next logical player to get the cover spot would have to be a Canadian third baseman playing for Canada's team. It's also the first version that will be available on the new Playstation 4 although (BIG BUMMER ALERT) the next-gen edition is delayed until May. That's a really rough announcement for fans that were anticipating the usual March or early April release date that people are accustomed to for the franchise (can you tell I'm one of these angry fans?)

Anyway, it looks to be worth waiting for based on the limited previews of the game that have slipped out. Here's the confirmation from Lawrie as well as the cover you might be seeing in stores on April 1st (or May if you have a PS4...):

I’m proud to be on the Canadian @MLBTheShow cover this year! Help @PlayStationCA choose the cover here:http://t.co/9r1EGHuIne

— Brett Lawrie (@blawrie13) February 13, 2014

pic.twitter.com/24miysKPQS

— Brett Lawrie (@blawrie13) February 13, 2014

Today also brought the first real trailer for the game, which has a massively improved lighting system and pretty unbelievable graphics:

Let us know if you're buying the game and what was your BBB-safe word of choice when you heard that the next-gen version only comes out in May.

The 2014 Valentine's Day edition of Daily Links features stories on Felix Doubront's 2014 season, a look at the starting rotation, and LOVE (because you can't have Valentine's Day without love, well.... some of us, at least).

If Cupid could match one perfect couple this year for the Red Sox, it'll be Felix Doubront and a healthy, productive season. (Gordon Edes; ESPNBoston.com)

Jake Peavy may not have been loved in the AL Central or NL West, but in the AL East, he earns some extra love (and value). (Jason Mastrodonato; MassLive.com)

The Red Sox have plenty of starters, but some might get divorced from their current relationship with the club. (Sean McAdam; CSNNE.com)

You learn do's and don'ts from watching and hearing about other relationship, especially during Valentine's Day. Here's how Boston can learn from the Dodgers' relationships with their extra starters. (Brian MacPherson; Providence Journal)

"Jeter's Retirement + Fenway Park = Perfection" should be inscribed on a tree somewhere in Boston. (Bob Klapisch; Providence Journal)

When you first move in with your significant other, adjustments are certainly needed. Former Red Sox greatDaisuke Matsuzaka experienced when he first came over to the state. He wants to share that experience with Masahiro Tanaka. (Tim Rohan; NY Times)

Don't have a Valentine this year? Well, why not spend your holiday with these two baseball podcasts. The best part is you don't have to get them a gift!

• Over the Monster's own Matt Kory previewed Boston's 2014 season on a Blue Jays podcast. (Gideon Turk; Blue Jays Plus)
• Keith Law joined Chris Hatfield, Matt Huegel and Ian Cundall for the 52nd iteration of the ever-lovable SoxProspects Podcast to talk about future Red Sox heartthrob Garin Cecchini. (Chris Hatfield; SoxProspects.com)

Congrats, Marc!

Read more Red Sox:

Follow @overthemonsterFollow @SBNationMLB

• Alex Rodriguez really, really wanted to be a Red Sox
• With Jacoby Ellsbury gone, who should lead off for the Red Sox?
• Jonny Gomes has an enormous Red Sox World series tattoo
• Red Sox introduce new road uniforms for 2014
• Dan Butler: The forgotten catcher

If Jose Reyes is going to strikeout, not something he's in the habit of doing, he's going to go down swinging.

When watching a baseball game, especially a Blue Jays game, on television you are likely to bombarded by a dizzying assortment of cliches and platitudes that offer very little insight whatsoever. I would think that these sayings are used primarily to help commentators prevent dead air in a slow moment, but the scarier possibility exists that those who spew them believe them to be both accurate and wise. In the case of the Blue Jays a lot of this empty banter relates to the topic of what we've come to call "veteran presents" around these parts. Not only will Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler ramble about veterans for hours on end, they will annoyingly focus almost all of their praise on whichever team the Blue Jays are playing that day. On days where Toronto is playing the Yankees or Red Sox it is almost too much to bear.

However, the theory goes that behind every cliche is a kernel of truth. When it's comes to baseball, kernels of truth can be both valuable and entertaining. As a result, I thought today I would look at a case where a cliche can come true. During a baseball game it is not uncommon to hear a color commentator declare that with two strikes a hitter "will not be cheated". For whatever reason I instantly associate this phrase with Matt Stairs, though I'm not sure there is a compelling reason why that would be the case other than the fact that Stairs was known to take very healthy cuts in any count. The idea behind the phrase is that when a batter has two strikes on them they absolutely do not want to strike out looking and will defend the plate by swinging. In essence the hitter will not be cheated out of the opportunity to defend the plate with his bat.

There is some intuitive value to this statement. Looking strikeouts are less common than swinging strikeouts and they are very frustrating for fans, and likely players as well. With two strikes hitters do not want to head to the bench having watched a pitch sail by. The 2012 World Series is a great recent example of the power of the strikeout looking. When the Tigers lost to the Giants on account of Miguel Cabrera letting a Sergio Romo fastball go unimpeded into the glove of Buster Posey it was one of the most deflating conclusions imaginable. The problem is that when the cliche is put in such definitive terms it implies that there is no way that a batter will strikeout looking, no matter what. Of course, we know batters striking out looking happens all the time, last season 23.7% of strikeouts league-wide came looking.

Given that I am a generous soul I tried to justify the existence of this cliche by finding a batter that truly would not be cheated with two strikes.To my surprise the man that fit the bill was Jose Reyes. The following Brooks Baseball zone profile shows Reyes's swing rate with two strikes last season:

When it came to pitches in the strike zone with two strikes Reyes swung for 112 pitches and only took one. That's pretty incredible. This data surprised me as I figured that as a hitter like J.P. Arencibia would be the one to let it rip in every two strike count. Conversely, I thought it likely that a hitter like Reyes with a little bit of patience would end up taking a strikeout looking from time to time. Looking at the percentage of strikes against Reyes that came looking in all situations this data looked even stranger:

Reyes took a higher percentage of strikes than average last season, but when it came to two strikes that pattern completely reversed. Not only that, but Reyes had 6 strikeouts looking last year and according to the Brooks Baseball strike zone only one of them was justified.

Of course there is something of a small sample size issue here. If we look at the same chart as the one above but with Reyes's career stats (2003-2013) then things look a little bit more reasonable:

Even though these numbers are a little bit more normal we still see the unusual pattern of a guy who takes more strikes than average but strikes out looking significantly less. Looking at his zone profile back to 2007 (as far as Brooks Baseball goes) you still see a guy that does not watch strikes go by when he is a strike away from the K:

Although most batters swing for the vast majority of pitches in the zone with two strikes on them, Jose Reyes is doing it virtually without fail.

When Jose Reyes came to the Blue Jays he had the potential to be a folk hero around these parts. His presence as a true lead off man, his triples, his stolen bases, and even his occasional highlight reel defensive plays were supposed to electrify this fan base. Partly due to his injuries and partly due to the way the season as a whole went that didn't end up happening. It may yet happen give how long Reyes is under contract, but it hasn't happened yet.

If Reyes does have a fantastic season with the team next year onlookers will be throwing out every cliche in the book to describe it. Without fail they will call him "electric", "a sparkplug" and "a catalyst" again and again and again. However, the cliche they might be liable to forget may well be the most accurate moniker of all: the man who won't be cheated.

On to the next group of prospects. We are getting into the guys that are real prospects.

30.Miguel Castro: Miguel was an international free agent signing in 2012, out of the Dominican Republic. He just turned 19 in December, but he already has a Webster award for being the top player for the Jays Dominican Summer League team in 2013. Miguel played in 3 levels, playing in 11 games, 10 starts for the DSL Jays, 3 games, 2 starts for the Gulf Coast League Jays and 1 relief appearance for Bluefield. In all, he put up a 1.54 ERA in 70 innings, allowing 52 hits, 12 walks and 71 strikeouts. It's easy to like a pitcher that strikeouts out 1 out of every 3 batters he faces. Better yet when he only walks about 5% of the batters he faced.

He's a big guy, listed at 6'5" and 190 lb. He has a low 90's fastball (which should improve as he matures), slider and, like everyone in the Jays' system a changeup. At 18, he was a little bit older than most DSL players, so it would be nice to see him at Bluefield next year and get an idea on how he fairs against better competition.

29. Rowdy Tellez: Rowdy (I guess if your parents name you Rowdy, they aren't expecting you be a politician, though, maybe in Toronto) (actually they named him Ryan, they just called him Rowdy) was our 30th round pick in the 2013 draft. He was 'committed' to play for USC, so teams stayed away from him, but a $850,000 signing bonus convinced him that higher education could be put off for a while. Baseball American called him the best left-handed power bat in the draft and now they say he's the best power hitter in the Jays' system.

He played 34 games for the Gulf Coast League Jays, hitting .234/.319/.372. Not the most exciting slash line but then his first look at pro ball. He's a big guy, 6'4" and 220 lb, at 18.

28. Richard Urena: Richard is another international signing, from 2012, out of the Dominican. He got his first look at pro ball this year, playing most of the season in the DSL, with 7 games at the GCL at the end of the season. In total, 300/.383/.404, with 1 home run and 9 stolen bases in 71 games. He's got enough range and a good enough arm to stay at short as he moves up. It's early yet, he doesn't turn 18 until the end of the month, but he's off to a good start.  He was number 31 on last year's list.

27. Clinton Hollon: Clinton was our #2 pick from last year's draft (getting a $467,280 signing bonus) and, since we didn't sign our #1 pick Phil Bickford, he's the highest pick that's with the team. He had some tendinitis problems the year before the draft, which dropped him into the second round. Clinton isn't a big guy, 6'1" and 195 but he can throw hard. This is what the Crawfish Boxes had to say about him:

His fastball sits in the low 90s and has reached 95-97 at times but doesn't have a lot of movement. His best off-speed pitch is his power curve as some places and his coach describes it, but some call it his slider. Given the low 80's velocity of the pitch, it's more of a slider pitch. He also throws a softer curve that's in the mid-70's and a change-up in the low 80's that has some cutting action on it.

He got into 6 games (3 starts) in his first look at pro ball, pitching 17.1 innings, giving up 8 hits, 6 walks with 15 strikeouts, splitting time between the GCL and Bluefield.  Clinton turned 19 on Christmas Eve. And, if this @ClintonHollon is really his twitter, he's going to be a daddy.

26. Matt Dean: Matt had a very good season, in his second look, at Bluefield, hitting .338/.390/.519, with 6 home runs, 14 doubles, 8 stolen bases and 35 RBI in 63 games, mostly at first base. I was hoping Dean would stay at third, but with Mitch Nay on the same team, one of them has to move off the position.  The 57 strikeouts don't look good but he's got a few years to learn to cut down on the 24.5% strikeout rate. He led the Appalachian League in batting average and OPS, which won him the 'Webster Award for top player at Bluefield.

Matt was our 13th round pick in the 2010 draft, he would have been picked higher but he was 'committed' to the University of Texas, but a $750,000 signing bonus uncommited him. He was 17th on our 2011 prospect list, dropped to 34th last year, after a poor first season in Bluefield, hitting just .222/.282/.353.

Dean is a pretty big guy,  6'3" 190 lb. He turned 21 just before Christmas. It would be nice to see him move up a couple of levels this year.

I'm late to it, yesterday was a busy day, but very sorry to hear about the passing of Jim Fregosi.

One of the several mistakes of the Gord Ash era was replacing Fregosi with Buck Martinez, as manager of the Jays, after the 2000 season. Fergosi had led the Jays to seasons of 84 and 83 wins, in 1999 and 2000, then Martinez took over and team had 2 losing seasons before Buck was fired and Carlos Tosca hired.

I thought that Jim did a good job with the Jays. He, unfortunately, was the one Blue Jays manager that had a lousy season from Roy Halladay (10.64 ERA in 2000). Chris Carpenter wasn't great in 2000 either (6.26 ERA). But he had a ton of offense to work with, we had 8 batters get to double figures in home runs,  that year, and 4 over 30 home runs (Carlo Delgado, Tony Batista, Brad Fullmer and Jose Cruz).

Fregosi was always a good interview, seemed to enjoy baseball and enjoy being in Toronto.

Of course, Blue Jays fans already knew him as the manager of the Phillies, when we beat them for the World Series title in 1993. We owe him a big thank you for using Mitch Williams in game 6 of the series, after Williams already had a big blown save in game 4 of the series.

Fregosi also had a good, long career as a player, playing 18 seasons, with the Angels, Rangers, Mets and Pirates. He hit .265/.338/.398 with 151 home runs in 1902 games, mostly as a shortstop.

It is sad to hear of the passing a a good guy. Our condolences to his family.

Other weekend news:

• Former Jays Emilio Bonifacio and Mark Teahen have each signed minor league contracts, Bonifacio with the Cubs and Teahen with the Giants. Emilio would make $2.5 million plus a possible $425,000 in incentives, if he makes the Cubs roster out of spring training.
• Once again, Jon Heyman tells us the Jays are after Ervin Santana, but he also says that the Mariners Orioles, Indians, Rockies, Royals and 'many others' have talked to Santana.
• For his part, Jim Bowman believes the Jays will sign Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez this spring:

Toronto is in need of a starting pitcher who can provide quality innings, and Jimenez and Santana fit that bill. There is draft-pick compensation tied to both, but the Jays are in a good spot because both of their first-round picks are protected. That means that they would only have to give up a second-rounder to sign one of these guys and still be sure to get two quality prospects at the top of the draft.

Once one of these guys signs with Toronto, the other will be stuck without a suitor and might have to wait for an injury before more offers come in.

• But John Lott reports that the rumor the Jays offered Santana $27 million over a 3-year contract were false.  I can't imagine the Jays would low ball him that much. All Santana's agent would say is that he and Alex "have nice talks".

After seeing nine players play their first major league game in 2012, the 2013 Blue Jays were not expected to have too many debuts because of the dearth of major league-ready prospects in the upper levels of the minors and all their high-profile acquisitions in the offseason. At the beginning of spring training, there were only two players on the 40-man roster who have not played in the majors: Ryan Goins and A.J. Jimenez. So we thought there was a "very strong possibility" that the 2013 squad would see a later first debut than any other team in franchise history.

We turned out to be right. Sean Nolin made his major league debut on May 24, 2013 in the 48th game of the season, beating out Lloyd Moseby, who also made his debut on May 24, but that was only the 37th game of the 1980 season.

Two other rookies made their major league debut with the Blue Jays last year: Kevin Pillar on August 14 and Ryan Goins on August 23.

Here is an updated list from last year, showing which player made the first major league debut of each of the 37 Blue Jays seasons (source: Baseball-Reference.com).

In four instances, multiple Blue Jays players made their major league debut in the same game:

(1) Garth Iorg made his debut by coming up to bat in the bottom of the first inning. Willie Upshaw also made his debut in this game, as defensive replacement for John Mayberry before the bottom of the third.
(2) Bobby Brown made his debut in left field in the bottom of the first inning. Ted Wilborn made his debut a few minutes later as defensive replacement for Rick Bosetti before the the top of the second.
(3) Pete Munro made his debut in relief of Dan Plesac in the bottom of the seventh inning. Tom Davey also made his debut, the next inning when he relieved Munro.
(4) Eric Hinske made his debut by coming up to bat in the top of the first inning. Scott Cassidy made his debut in the bottom of the fourth, relieving Scott Eyre.

Right now there are four players on the 40-man roster who have yet to make their debut: Deck McGuire, A.J. Jimenez, Rob Rasmussen, Kenny Wilson. Non-roster invitees with no MLB experience include: Jared Goedert, Ricardo Nanita, Kevin Nolan, Aaron Sanchez, John Stilson, Marcus Stroman, and Marcus Walden.

Just like last year, we can turn this into a prediction game to guess the first Blue Jays major league debut. In 2013, my guess was that Ricardo Nanita would finally make his big league debut, in the bottom of the first on June 24. I am bad at predictions. The winner last year was someone named "AApologist", who correctly guessed Sean Nolin, missing his actual debut date by just two days.

Game Instructions

In the comments, guess:

1. Who you think will be the first player to make a major league debut with the Blue Jays in 2014,
2. The date of the debut, and
3. The inning of the debut.

Another week and Spring Training is almost here meaning that someone will be in the best shape of their lives. A whole pile of links today including how not to take a picture.

JAYS LINKS

The Blue Jay Hunter: The Dome Effect: Does an Open or Closed Roof Impact Home Run Totals at the Rogers Centre?
In the past few years, the Rogers Centre has developed a reputation around the Major League as a hitters' ballpark. A bit of a bandbox; a home run haven, if you will. It certainly hasn't always been that way, but recently it seems like home run numbers have mysteriously and steadily increased within the confines of the Rogers Centre.

Today, I understand why we all needed Jim Fregosi: Griffin | Toronto Star
The former Blue Jays manager was one of a kind, a reminder of what baseball should ideally be all about, what it means to be a baseball friend. He died Friday at age 71.

Toronto Blue Jays prospects Aaron Sanchez and Marcus Stroman: The long and short of what scouts say | National Post
Sanchez and Stroman stand head and shoulders above the rest of the Jays prospects. There is, however, some disagreement about where they rank

Toronto Blue Jays still seek pitching, but all parties remain patient as spring training opens | National Post
Misinformation about contract talks has always been endemic

Blair: Time for Gibbons to take control - The Globe and Mail
After a massively disappointing 2013 campaign, the team needs to get off to a strong start if it wants to keep new and returning fans

The Blue Jay Hunter: Preaching the Importance of Defense
One thing the Blue Jays have not been known for recent memory is their defense. In fact, you have to think back to the Scott Rolen/Marco Scutaro/John McDonald days to find a Toronto Blue Jays squad that had a reputation of being defensively solid.

Blue Jays Notebook: Still ‘trying to improve’ - Sportsnet.ca
The Blue Jays say they're still looking for upgrades, but this team looks quite similar to last year's 88-loss club. This notebook also has notes on the Jays' spring home, five-year policy and ticket sales.

Tao of Stieb: Jays facing questions this spring - Sportsnet.ca
Tao of Stieb explains that the Blue Jays face lots of questions as spring training opens -- starting with the performances of Melky Cabrera, Brett Lawrie and Drew Hutchison.

Former Toronto Blue Jays starter Josh Johnson hoping to rebound this season with Padres | National Post
The 6-foot-7 Johnson said he struggled with his "extension" in Toronto

MLB LINKS

The Sense In Waiting to Trade Jeff Samardzija | FanGraphs Baseball
The Chicago Cubs have had two sets of negotiations involving Jeff Samardzija. The two sides have talked about a long-term extension — so far nothing’s been agreed to — and the sides seem pretty far apart

Maybe We Should All Learn the Split-Finger | FanGraphs Baseball
Swinging strikes are the best. The batter tried to make contact and failed in a head-to-head matchup of will and strength and coordination.

CC Sabathia Is Skinny Now And It's Weird
This screengrab of a gaunt-looking CC Sabathia at last night's Knicks game is making the rounds, and it's damn near disturbing. Is he...OK? We are happy to report that Sabathia is healthy, maybe healthier than he's been in decades.

Derek Jeter: Rated Very High By Ass
Not inaccurate.

Here's Video Of Tracy McGrady Pitching Off A Mound
We've been hearing a lot about former NBA star Tracy McGrady's desire to become a professional baseball pitcher, and now there's finally video of him throwing off a mound. He doesn't look too bad!

MLB Under Attack On All Sides For Failing To Pay Mimimum Wage | FanGraphs Baseball
Major League Baseball may still enjoy immunity from federal antitrust laws, but that immunity doesn’t mean the league or its teams can ignore federal and state laws that require employees be paid a minimum wage.

So What Does a Mike Trout Extension Look Like Now? | FanGraphs Baseball
Speculating about how much money it would take to sign Mike Trout to a long term deal has become something of a sport unto itself.

NON BASEBALL LINKS

A woman attempting to take a picture at a hockey game in ...
A woman attempting to take a picture at a hockey game in Sochi today.

Bar Games, Ranked
Wait a minute, you can only watch the real, live Olympics on a weirdo foreign computer TV at 3:00 in the morning?

After some good discussion about the infield portion of the organizational all-upside team, we move to the outfield where there are tools galore for the Blue Jays. The top outfielders in the Toronto system are mainly center fielders, so their defensive positions in this piece aren't very important. If all goes well in the next few years, the team should have a plethora of options in the outfield and it should continue to be a real strength for Toronto going forward.

Right Field- Dalton Pompey

A Canadian switch hitting outfielder with a ton of speed is a pretty exciting asset to have for the Blue Jays and if the Mississauga native comes close to reaching his ceiling, then it will be a fun time to be a Toronto fan. Pompey spent all of 2013 in Lansing having a streaky year, ending with a line of .261/.358/.394 with 38 stolen bases and 106 strikeouts (20.7%). He played center field for most of the year and has a ton of range in the outfield, which actually led to him winning the Minor League Gold Glove. In the video below, you can see his swing from the right side of the plate as well as his wheels, which Jays Journal says can get him to first base in 3.7 seconds:

Center Field- D.J. Davis

The 2012 draftee still hasn't fully put it together yet, but the upside is still there and his blazing speed will always help cover up his other blemishes. The left-handed hitter spent all of last season in Bluefield hitting .240/.323./.418 with six home runs and a 29.5% K-rate. Similarly to Pompey, Davis has speed for days, but strikes out too much and has a long way to go before he's a polished outfielder. Both players will stick in center field for the foreseeable future with Davis a level below Pompey, avoiding any sort of logjam at the position.

Left Field- Anthony Gose

Can a player with 108 games in the big leagues be put on an all-upside team? Yes, apparently he can. The left-handed hitter still hasn't come close to reaching his ceiling, with mid-20%'s strikeout rates at every level of pro ball and questions beginning to arise about his attitude starting to be a sign of worry for the Blue Jays. Gose split time between the Blue Jays and Buffalo in 2013, not looking that impressive at the plate, but still showing his speed on the basepaths and in the field. If Gose gets a chance to play left field in 2014, he better take it, as time is slowly running out for the 23-year-old California native. Depending on what the Blue Jays want to do with Colby Rasmus in the next year or so, Gose could find himself permanently moved to left field, unless the youngster wants to try and throw a ball at Rasmus' face again.

There's my outfield portion of the organizational all-upside team, which contains three very similar players. Each speedy center fielder is at a different stage of their career, but they all have some pretty serious similarities in their games. If one of these guys puts it together and develops into a polished major league player, I think we would consider it a win. Let us know who would play the outfield positions on your all-upside team below.

Around this time last year, Cashew Mirman released the trailer to "Blue Jays Adventure", an eight-bit video game based on the 2013 season. I loved it at the time, even certifying it as the Greatest Thing Ever. But when I started playing it, things didn't turn out the way they did in the trailer. I tried my best but the Reyes and Lawrie characters died way too early in the game and didn't respawn until much later, and there were so many unrealistic and ridiculous things happening. I mean, Happ getting hit in the face with a ball then hurting his knee? Rasmus dying by friendly fire?  Johnson becoming a completely unplayable character? And man-oh-man the bug making Cabrera immobile was annoying. Oh, and the end boss "Farrell" actually ends up winning the entire game.

Cashew Mirman has just announced the release of a 2014 Expansion Pack to the game. Unfortunately it seems that the developers failed to add any significant pieces to the game despite the poor results from 2013. When I try to play with an improved lineup the game just keeps crashing. There is still some time for them to make upgrades but it is getting awfully close to release date for a game to still have so many gaping holes.

What started out as a search for a free agent starting pitcher that had multiple targets at the beginning of the offseason has dwindled to just one choice, as it sounds like Ubaldo Jimenez is going to Baltimore. With the aforementioned Jimenez and Ervin Santana as the two remaining starters on the open market, Blue Jays fans were hoping they would be able to sign at least one of them in the days decreasing until Spring Training. With the news breaking tonight that the right-handed Jimenez is being signed, the team's options now consist of Ervin Santana or Ervin Santana.

The tweet that broke the news and the confirmation that came slightly after:

Source: #Orioles have made substantial progress on Jimenez and are working to finalize deal. Believed 4 years and around $48 mil.

— Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) February 17, 2014

Can confirm that the Orioles are working toward a deal with Jimenez. @masnRoch has it at 4yrs/48 mil. More to come.

— Brittany Ghiroli (@Britt_Ghiroli) February 17, 2014

Source: #Orioles in agreement with Jimenez. Deal is pending physical.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) February 17, 2014

First of all, the terms of that contract are pretty swell and are going to make Blue Jays fans even more angry at Alex Anthopoulos for not locking Jimenez up before their division rivals got to him. The good news is that Ervin Santana's price will probably now be in that range, and the team has a ton of leverage to try and decrease the price even further.

Then there's this:

O's went to 4th year in their talks w/Jimenez out of concern BOS and/or TOR would go for three-year deal. But TOR/BOS didn't make offers.

— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) February 18, 2014

So let's start off by saying I think 4 years is too long for Ubaldo Jimenez.

$12.5 million a year, I think that's a fair amount, but 4 years is too long.

The trouble is that we need another starter, and since we left it until the start of spring training, and Ubaldo was the last decent choice out there, paying the extra year should have been the price of doing business. Yes, it might be too much, but we are paying too much for Mark Buehrle, R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes and, likely, Melky Cabrera too. We gave up a lot of good players to get Reyes, Buehrle and Dickey. If we don't want to make the players we gave up a total loss, we've got to add someone else to the rotation.

We aren't going to win with Dickey, Buehrle and how ever much of the season Brandon Morrow can pitch, plus whatever is behind doors number 4 and 5 and a league average offense (well, never say never, stranger things have happened, but it is unlikely).

I was talking to a friend and he said he's never been so depressed at the start of spring training.

I can understand.

I don't get what the Jays are doing. Last year, it was 'win now', this year it's let's hope the last place team figures out how to win. I can deal with win now. I can deal with rebuilding. I can't deal with straddling the fence. Alex, made a choice, are we trying to win or not.

We entered the off-season with 3 major needs: a starting pitcher, a second baseman and a catcher (we won't mention that it would have been nice to pick up a right-handed bat and a fourth outfielder). We've sort of, kind of fixed the catcher spot. Second base, well, we are hoping that the Maicer Izturis we saw last year was a mirage or that, against all evidence, Ryan Goins can hit sort of like a major leaguer.

We do have 6 weeks until the season starts and Alex could, maybe, come up with a starting pitcher, but it seems like the only possibilities are Ervin Santana (no I really don't want him) or a trade that will cost us a good part of what's left of our minor league prospects.

Maybe he'll sign Stephen Drew. That's my hope, at the moment. I'm also going to hope that (if they don't pick up a starter) they forget about the arbitration clock and give Marcus Stroman the 5th spot in the rotation and that J.A. Happsurprises me and is ok, or that Drew Hutchison pitches so much better than him, this spring, and they give him Happ's spot.

If they don't add anyone....I'll be sad. I mean, I'll still watch the games, I'll still live and die with every game. For better or worse, I'm a fan.

But I've had enough worse, it's time for some better.

For a second straight season, knuckleballer R.A. Dickey will take the hill on opening day for the Toronto Blue Jays, acording to the Blue Jays' official Twitter account.  The game will start at 4:10 pm Eastern on Monday, March 31 at Tropicana Field against the Rays (so sneak out of work early). Toronto last opened up their season in Tropicana Field in 2005, when Roy Halladay led the club to a 5-2 victory over the then-Devil Rays.

The rest of the rotation is still to be determined, according to Shi Davidi, who also notes that the home opener will actually be the fifth game of the season. Because of that occasion, John Gibbons is hinting that the pitcher who starts the fifth game of 2014 may not necessarily be the club's fifth-best starter.

Gibbons mentioned that Dickey had always done well at Tropicana--in three starts last season, Dickey held the Rays to a .176/.256/.284 line and gave up just one homer through 22 innings. I remember his tossing a complete-game two-hitter against the Rays last year. The Blue Jays have been horrible lately in the Florida dome so they will need Dickey to give all he can on Opening Day. One bit of unfortunate news is that Dickey will likely not be made available to face the Mets in the two-game exhibition series in Montreal, meaning fans won't see a Dickey-Travis d'Arnaud matchup this year.

Dickey will join Dave Lemanczyk (2), Jim Clancy (2), Dave Stieb (4), Jimmy Key (3), Jack Morris (2), Pat Hentgen (2), Roy Halladay (7), Ricky Romero (2) as Blue Jays pitchers who have made multiple opening day starts.

In Other News

The Blue Jays have signed outfielder Brett Carroll to a minor league deal with no invitation to major league camp. The 32-year-old will provide outfield depth for the Buffalo Bisons.

Dustin McGowan was seen taking grounders at second base yesterday. By the way, Ryan Goins had a 66 OPS+ in 2013 while McGowan had a 52 OPS+ in his last full season. Start your speculations now, folks:

Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Not news but a significant day in Blue Jays history. In 1999, the Blue Jays traded away a disgruntled Roger Clemens to the New York Yankees for David Wells, Homer Bush, and Graeme Lloyd, which was a pretty good haul taken by Gord Ash considering Clemens wanted to leave. The other option Ash had was to trade Clemens to the Rangers for hot prospect Ruben Mateo, so he made the right choice there. The trade still has implications on the roster today as there Lloyd's departure led to the Blue Jays drafting their future second baseman Dustin McGowan.

Edwin Encarnacion has already broken out to become an elite offensive force over the last two seasons. Is it possible he has a little bit more breaking out to do?

In the wake of the Ubaldo Jimenez signing it's fair to say that the outlook of Blue Jays fans at the moment is pretty bleak. Tom covered it here, Stoeten also addressed it over at DJF and the reasoning, by and large, is sound. This is a team built to win now and there are very serious and legitimate questions as to whether it can. The quiet offseason has been very frustrating for fans that who see holes at second base and in the rotation and players available in free agency who could potentially fill those holes.

Even with all the negativity hovering over the franchise there are some reasons for optimism, small though they might seem at this moment. For one, this lineup has the potential to score quite a few runs. If contributions from stars like Jose Reyes, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista can be supplemented by solid production from Adam Lind and Colby Rasmus again you are talking about quite the lineup, health permitting. Any improvements from Brett Lawrie and Melky Cabrera could turn a good lineup into a great one, and while second base is still a hole Dioner Navarro is virtually certain to provide an upgrade to 2013's production from the catcher position. I would not describe myself as an eternal optimist or homer type by any means, but I see how this squad could score a lot and improve on last year's league-average type showing offensively.

Today I wanted to look into one source of such an improvement that many would consider unlikely, a second breakout from Edwin Encarnacion. I'd like to begin by acknowledging that there are quite a few logical reasons to suspect that this team's best hitter will not take a further step forward in 2014. Firstly, Encarnacion is at an age, 31, where decline is far more likely than improvement. Secondly, he has performed at such a high level over the past two years (a .276/.377/.546 slash line and 8.2 WAR) that regression to the mean of some description is a reasonable expectation. Lastly, Encarnacion also already had his huge breakout in 2012, hitting .280/.384/.557 after coming into the season with a career slash line of .260/.336/.453 and not many guys get two.

Perhaps most importantly, Encarnacion's 2013 looked virtually identical to his 2012, setting what would appear to be a fairly reliable baseline for his production going forward. After all after seeing the following two lines one would expect more of the same in the future:

In fact, his 2012 seems a little better than 2013 and on the surface this looks like it could be a gentle aging curve. However, appearances can be deceiving. Although one must concede that Encarnacion's power was slightly better two years ago, there is an argument to be made that he improved in every other area in 2013. Largely what has happened here is that there is quite the disparity between the amount of luck Encarnacion received in 2012 compared to last season.

One of the ways that this luck was particularly noticeable was when it came to getting on base. For the most part OBP is cut and dry. If you don't get out you probably did something to deserve it and as a result players with a high OBP tend to be excellent at baseball. However, there are three scenarios for Encarnacion where getting on base is not particularly indicative of his skill.

The first is the HBP. Some players become particularly adept at being hit by pitches, but Edwin would not appear to be one of them. Since joining the Jays Encarnacion has been hit by 23 pitches, a pretty unremarkable number. Therefore when Edwin gets hit, it's more or less a chance occurrence.

The second way for a guy to get on base without showing a great deal of skill is the intentional walk. While it can be a sign of respect, it's largely situational and a hitter does nothing to earn it, except already being good.

The third way for Edwin to get on base largely via luck is the infield hit. Since Encarnacion has pretty normal speed the amount of infield hits he gets are largely luck related. You can credit him for his hustle, but the difference between his infield hits year-to-year is likely no more than random fluctuation.

If we put these three luck-driven OBP-increasing events together into a chart we can see the baseball gods smiled on Encarnacion far more frequently in 2012:

The difference between these numbers more than accounts for Encarnacion's higher OBP in 2012. In 2013 he had more unintentional walks and non-infield hits.

Further differences between Edwin's last two seasons become clearer when examining his batted ball profile:

A player who hits as many fly balls as Edwin Encarnacion is never going to post an amazing BABIP and as a result both of the numbers here are reasonable for him despite the fact they are below-average. What's puzzling is that Encarnacion increased his line drives and ground balls at the expense of fly balls and pop ups and still saw his BABIP goes down last season. Although a lower HR/FB means more fly balls in play, the difference there is very slight compared to the uptick in liners and reduction in pop ups. As touched upon above, the infield hits appear to be a big factor here.

Ultimately, it looks like Encarnacion was the victim of good old fashioned poor luck with balls in play last season. Even if he may never post a BABIP above .300 again (something he has done only twice in his career and not since 2007), he can be expected to get more love on balls in play in 2014. What Encarnacion's lack of BABIP luck in 2013 concealed the improvements he made in his approach at the plate.

Edwin's ability to hit for power without striking out has been well documented, but he has also become very adept at taking the walk. What has resulted is a fairly incredible BB/K ratio that got better and better as the year went on. Comparing first and second halves of a season can be a dicey proposition due to the fact the second half is shorter and both samples are on the small side, but for Edwin the difference was drastic enough to be worth noting:

Having a BB/K above one is impressive enough, especially for a power hitter, but what Encarnacion did in the second half of 2013 was virtually super human. If he put up a 2.12 BB/K over an entire season it would be the second best mark in the last ten years, ranking behind only the downright silly 5.66 BB/K belonging to Barry Bonds in 2004.

It's unfair to expect Encarnacion to carry all the gains he made in the second half into 2014 as second half statistics have often proven to be an unreliable indicator of future success. That being said, the difference here has to do with approach and strikeouts and walks are hard to fake. Additionally, the gulf here is so significant it is difficult to ignore. While Encarnacion is very unlikely to have a BB/K above two next season, it's not unreasonable to think he might be trending upward in this regard. After all, he has improved in this area in three consecutive seasons. The last piece of food for thought here is that prior to Edwin's breakout in 2012 he was showing signs in the second half of 2011. Here's what his splits by half looked like that year:

This is a fairly extreme example, and it doesn't prove anything in the scheme of things, but it does show us that Encarnacion's last breakout was foreshadowed by the second half of the previous year. When working with samples like half seasons it is absolutely impossible to say anything definitive, but the signs are encouraging.

Edwin Encarnacion is not exactly on anyone's list of breakout candidates for 2014, but that doesn't mean he can't take his game to another level in the upcoming year. While Father Time is working against Edwin, his underlying numbers suggest that he continues to improve his game at the plate. The 2013 season appeared to be a virtual carbon copy of 2012 for Encarnacion, but he actually made progress by continuing to cut strikeouts and get more walks. Additionally, on the batted ball side of things, Edwin put up an IFFB% below 10% for the first time in his career and recorded his highest line drive rate since his rookie season, where he only had 267 plate appearances. Despite these gains, a very poor BABIP obscured the step up Encarnacion made from 2012, where his overall numbers appeared to be superficially better.

Predicting improvement from players, especially outside the boundaries of a standard aging curve, is a very difficult business. It is very challenging to determine what aspect of a player's performance signifies progress and what are simply good results with no predictive value. However, when a player doubles his BB/K in the second half of a season it is probably worth taking notice. While small sample size risks apply to everything, walks and strikeouts stabilize quickly and are far less luck-driven than most statistics in baseball.

Edwin Encarnacion is coming off two pretty incredible years as a hitter. Given his surprising breakout and All-Star level production it would be difficult to ask for much more. That being said, there is reason to believe that the Blue Jays first basemen can deliver an even better season in 2014. Banking on a 31-year-old bringing his game to another level is not the kind of bet a wise gambler would take, but it is the sort of break the Blue Jays might need to compete this season.

Our next five in our Top 40 Prospect list roll out. If you've missed one, the 26-30 is here, 31-35 here and 36-40 here.

25. Adonys Cardona: Number #14 on last year's list, a second year in a row of an ERA north of 6 will drop you a bunch of spots.  Adonys pitched in Bluefield last year, with a 6.75 ERA in 8 games, 5 starts, 25.1 innings, 35 hits, 13 walks and 27 strikeouts. The Jays paid him $2.8 million to join the organization out of Venezuela, back in 2010. Since then he's recorded a lot of strikeouts but also a lot of walks, way too many walks. He still throws hard, mid-90's, still has a good curve and still has tons of potential. He turned 20 in January, so there is still time for him to learn how to hit the strike zone, but it would be nice to see some sign of it. Keith Law still had him as the Jays' 5th best prospect, so there is that.

24. Matt Boyd: Matt was our 6th round pick in 2013, out of Oregon State. He's a big lefty, 215, but doesn't throw all that hard. low 90's at best, but has 4 pitches, fastball, curve, slider and change. Boyd got into a few games at Lansing and Dunedin, putting up a 2.62 ERA, in 8 games, 5 starts, 24 innings, 14 hits, 3 walks and 23 strikeouts. He turned 23 earlier this month, he should be able to move through the system quick and could be a middle of the rotation, innings eater kind of guy. John Sickels has him as our 19th best prospect.

23. Ryan Goins: It seems kind of funny to have a guy that is a lock to make the team, this year, barring a last minute move, sitting as low as 23rd on the list. It really isn't fair. Last year he was 23rd on the list too, having just been added him to the 40-man roster that off-season.  Anyway, Ryan spent most of the season in Buffalo, where he hit .257/.311/.369, with 6 home runs in 111 games. It doesn't really seem like the numbers of a guy that would get called up to the majors, but the Jays had used everyone else who owned a second baseman's glove (except for Jim Negrych, and if you are Jim, If you couldn't get your shot last year, I guess now you know you'll never get your shot at the majors), so it was Ryan's turn.

Ryan got called up in the middle of August and hit .252/.264/.345 with 2 home runs, 2 walks and 28 strikeouts. His first 8 games went much better, .400/.419/.467, but it went downhill quickly after that. He is going to have to learn to take the odd walk.

Of course the reason he reason he was called up wasn't his bat, he was his glove. After watching Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis, finding someone that could actually make a play was worth putting up with his bat. Fangraphs credits him with a 33.1 UZR/150. Course some of that was a small sample size problem, the best UZR of any 2B that played a reasonable number of games was Darwin Barney, for the Cubs, at 15.5 UZR/150. He isn't twice as good as anyone else.

Anyway, odds are that he's going to get the lion's share of the playing time at second this year, we might as well enjoy the defense and go for a beer when he comes up to bat. Or beg Alex to sign Stephan Drew.

22. Santiago Nessy : Santiago dropped from the 13th spot on our list from last year. He had a tough first look at full season ball, hitting .241/.293/.375, with 5 home runs, 13 walks and 59 strikeouts. He also had more trouble throwing out base stealers, nailing 25% of them, after throwing out 35% in 2012. He's a big guy, 6'2" and 230 and there are worries that his knees won't be able to handle the stress of being a catcher as he ages but there are some big guys that have made it as a catcher in the majors. With that size there should be some power in there, hopefully it will show itself soon

Santiago was an international free agent signing, back in 2009. He turned 21 in December, so he's going to have to show some improvement in his eye at the plate soon

21. Dalton Pompey: Pompey was number 19 on last year's list, he loses a couple of spots without his biggest supporter, Woodman663, helping with the list. He had a pretty good 2013 season, hitting .261/.358/.394 with 9 triples, 6 home runs, 63 walks, 106 strikeouts, 38 steals in 115 games at Lansing, but you still have to like a guy that walks 12.3% of the time. He is going to have to cut down the strikeout rate. He just turned 21 in December, so there is time for that.. Late round draft picks have to have good stats to stay  on the prospect lists.  Dalton  was a 16th round pick in 2010,

MiLB.com picked Pompey as a Blue Jays Organizational All-Star and he won a Minor League Gold Glove. He was also a Midwest League All-Star (and was the game's MVP). And he is Canadian, which is an award all of its own.

More from Bluebird Banter

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• Does Edwin Encarnacion Have Another Gear?
• R.A. Dickey tapped as Blue Jays' opening day starter and other notes
• Depression and the Blue Jays fan
• Uh Oh: Ubaldo to Orioles?
• Organizational All-Upside Team: Outfield

Despite speculation that the Blue Jays would add to their rotation this offseason, they haven't yet, and now they are unlikely to sign the best remaining free agent pitcher in Ervin Santana.

The Toronto Blue Jays are unlikely to sign free agent starter Ervin Santana this offseason, according to ESPN.com's Jayson Stark.

Even as the list of free agent pitchers shrinks, the Jays are still unwilling to pony up the extra years and cash it would take to sign someone like Santana. After the team's pitching staff struggled mightily in 2013 (finishing with the sixth-worst ERA in the AL at 4.26), Toronto has yet to upgrade its rotation this winter. One AL executive told Stark that Santana would have to "fall in their lap" for the Jays to ultimately sign the right-hander.

Many observers expected the Jays to add to their pitching staff following a dreadful 2013 campaign that saw the club's lack of rotation depth exposed when starters like Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow succumbed to injury.

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Instead of adding a veteran arm, the Jays are planning on having one of their young, up-and-coming pitchers fill the last remaining hole in their rotation. The team has R.A. Dickey, Morrow, Mark Buehrle, and J.A. Happ penciled into the first four spots of the rotation, with youngsters Drew Hutchison and Kyle Drabek ready to vie for the fifth role. Both Hutchison and Drabek are finally healthy after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2012.

"We'd love to add a starter to maintain that depth," Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos told Stark. "But we're comfortable with what we have."

Along with Hutchison and Drabek, the Jays also have top prospect Marcus Stroman on the way, with the 22-year-old likely to make his big league debut in 2014 after reaching Double-A last season. Toronto also has Esmil Rogers and Todd Redmond, two starters who filled in at times last year, still under contract.

But even if they expect better depth in the season ahead, it is fair to wonder how the Jays expect to compete in the AL East without upgrading their current rotation. Dickey posted a 4.21 ERA after moving from the NL to the AL East in 2013, while Mark Buehrle also struggled after moving to the AL, finishing with a 4.15 ERA. Morrow has thrown more than 150 innings in a single season just once back in 2011.

If the Jays don't sign Santana, the 31-year-old still has a number of suitors. The Mariners, Indians, Royals, and even Yankees have been linked with the right-hander in the past week, although nothing appears imminent.

What we do know, at this point, is that the Blue Jays probably won't be inking Santana to a deal this offseason.

Over at Grantland, Jonah Keri has written a Offseason Stock Report, ranking all 30 Major League teams (with a lot of words).

The Jays? Number 22, lowest ranked team in the AL East, the Orioles are 18th. Here is the money quote:

....as constructed, the Jays still look like a last-place team, maybe fourth-place at best. And given both Santana's tendency to serve up long balls and the strength of the division's top teams, dishing out $50 million to cap a suspiciously quiet offseason might not make much of a difference.

I really wanted to argue this, but, well, I can see the possibility of everything going right and them maybe being on the edge of contending, but, more likely, we'll be battling for fourth.

I mean, our offense is coming back basically as the same group as last year, sub in Navarro for Arencibia (an improvement) and Goins for Bonifacio,  Sierra  and Gose or Pillar for Davis and DeRosa.  Last year we were about league average offensively, and that's with a pretty offensive friendly ballpark. Now we can hope for better health, but all the players are a year older and older rarely means healthier.

Our starting rotation was the worst in the division last year, the big change is Josh Johnson is gone and no one has been added (sigh). Our rotational looks to be:

R.A. Dickey: He was a bit of a disappointment last year, maybe caused by neck and back soreness, but then how many pitchers (even knuckleball pitchers) improve at age 39.

Mark Buehrle: He was pretty good, if you ignore the first month and a half of the season. He'll be 35 now, I think we know what we have, someone that will give us a lot of league average innings.

Brandon Morrow: I like Morrow a lot, but he's pitched more than 150 innings only once in his career and he's 29 now. I think he could have a very good season, or he could get injured again. It might not be fair, but I think any chance of coming close to contending rests on Morrow.

J.A. Happ: The Jays have made it clear that, barring injury, Happ is our 4th starter. I've never been a fan, so my opinion might be biased, but in the guy's best season, he posted a 1.7 WAR. He's 31.

Number 5 will be Esmil Rogers or Todd Redmond, neither has any options left. I think I'll cheer for Redmond, the strikeouts were fun,

Marcus Stroman, Drew Hutchison and Kyle Drabek wait in the minors for the inevitable injuries. Maybe Dustin McGowan have a good spring.

Anyway, what do you think, are the Jays a last place team?

Normally I ignore the 'player X came to camp in great shape stuff' but, in this case, I'm going to take any good news I can get:

Gibbons expects Melky Cabrera to be back to normal after surgery last yr to remove tour on spine. Reports say MC in good shape.

— John Lott (@LottOnBaseball) February 20, 2014

More on Melky. Says he hasn't lost a lot of weight but turned what he had into muscle. Says he's in best shape of his life. #BlueJays

— Barry Davis (@SNBarryDavis) February 20, 2014

I really want to believe this, left field was a black hole for us last year (and the year before). Last year our left fielders hit .259/.309/.358, with 10 home runs.  A healthy Melky would be a big improvement.

I have no idea what to expect from Melky. Offensively, he's the one I have no clue about. Zips has him hitting .290/.329/.433 with 12 home runs. After last year, I'd take that and be happy.

Melky is going to be the one I watch the most this spring. It is a big year for him, he's a free agent after the season and, if it goes like last year, I doubt he'll be able to find another major league contract.

What do you expect from Melky this year?