Goodbye .500! Dino goes 2-0 in 2014!

Final score in Toronto, Game 2: Angels 5, Blue Jays 3

WP: Tyler Skaggs / LP: J.A. Happ / S:Joe Smith

Fittingly, Mike Trout did not hit the ball on a day when every other batter in the lineup produced a hit or two. Trout did walk, though, and his .275 is rather annoying. Offensive 'Thank You' cards can be sent to C.J. Cron and Chris Iannetta. Iannetta's homer came in the second inning and Cron's in the third. The latter individual has been a very valuable asset since joining the lineup.

Blue Jays pitcher J.A. Happ never escaped the third inning and manager John Gibbons sent Todd Redman in for the takeover. From there on out, the Jays only allowed one more additional run. By the end, the Halos had five runs and it was all over.

Joe Smith, who had a blown save last night, redeemed himself with a save in the ninth inning. Ernesto Frieri had the day off and thus we had an easy-going Saturday afternoon.

Enjoy the day, folks.

Good news, the Blue Jays have activated Casey Janssen from the DL. Casey has miss all of the 2014 season, until now, with a 'left abdominal back strain'. He pitched 3 shutout innings for New Hampshire in his rehab assignment. Very glad to have Casey back, he had a 2.56 ERA and 35 saves last year.

In a surprise move, at least to me, to make room for Casey they DFAed Chris Getz. Getz was hitting just.160/.222/.200 in his 10 games with the Jays but without him second base falls to Steve Tolleson. Tolleson is hitting .429/.500/1.000 in 6 games, but him in the lineup, we really don't have a utility infielder on the bench. 

I guess this means we are going to see more of Brett Lawrie at second base.....I'm not a fan of that. 

So, if Lawrie and Navarro are available to play, our bench would be 2 backup catchers (Erik Krakz and Josh Thole and one DH/3B/1B in Juan Francisco giving us almost no flexibility on the bench. But we have tons of pitchers. Why not DFA J.A. Happ?

I'm glad to have Janssen back but I don't understand dumping Getz. 

Weaver goes 6.1 strong innings. Bullpen with a solid outing. Conger with 5 RBI

Angels skipper Mike Scioscia was allowed across the Canadian border and rejoined the club today as the Angels lock up the series with their third straight win over the Blue Jays 9-3 on Mother's Day.

Efren Navarro and Hank Conger started the scoring with RBI doubles in the fourth inning but it was Conger who nearly stole the show finishing with 5 RBI on the day including a three run blast in the sixth. Angels 3B Ian Stewart departed after being hit in the hand with the pitch as he swung. No word yet on whether he will be placed on the DL

Angels ace Jered Weaver gave up an early run in the home half of the frame but was cruising along until trouble in the 7th. After retiring Edwin Encarnacion on a slow curve ball, Weaver would surrender a double, single and a walk to load the bases. Butcher came out and made the call to pull Weaver and insert Michael Kohn into the game with one out. Kohn got a crucial pop out to third and a called strike three to end the frame, strand the bases loaded (maintaining his 100% strand rate this season).

Fernando Salas pitched the 8th but surrendered a two run double and got only one out. Former starter Hector Santiago got the next two batters to pop out and ground out to end the Blue Jay eighth. Mike Morin would pitch a 1-2-3 clean inning in the ninth, with his mom in attendance, to light that baby up!

Happy Mother's Day everyone!

Update (2:44 PM): Word is that x-ray results on Stewart's hand are negative.

Watching this game was a fundamentally terrible experience.

Angels 9 Blue Jays 3

Yikes.

The Blue Jays rode into this series on a wave of optimism, momentum, and hot bats. It looks like they will leave it ice cold at the plate with a used-up bullpen and bad taste in the mouth.

Today's meltdown began with a rough start from Drew Hutchison.

The 23-year-old lasted only 4.1 innings with three runs allowed on three hits. Even though he had his swing-and-miss stuff going with five strikeouts, the four walks he issued killed Hutchison, ratcheting up his pitch count and putting men on base at inopportune times.

Things came apart for Hutchison in the top of the fourth when he surrendered a two-out walk to Howie Kendrick after a 10 pitch at-bat. A stolen base, a throwing error by Dioner Navarro, and two consecutive doubles later, the Angels were up 2-1. By the end of the inning Hutchison had thrown 85 pitches.

In the fifth, he committed the cardinal sin of walking the ninth batter, only to see him come around on a Mike Trout double off Marcus Stroman after Hutch had exited the game, bringing the score at that time to 3-1.

The dagger came in the 6^th inning when Hank Conger put one over the right field wall with two men on base against Stroman to put the Angels up 6-1.

Los Angeles would tack on another run off Stroman to bring the score to 7-1 and cement an abysmal day for the rookie.

Stroman stuggled mightily in his 1.2 innings of work allowing hard hit ball after hard hit ball on the way to surrendering four runs on six hits. The young right-hander appeared to be having serious difficulty keeping the ball down.

The Angels would get two more add-on runs off Brett Cecil, and when it was all said and done the bullpen allowed six runs on nine hits with four walks in 4.2 innings.

Offensively, the less said the better.

By my scientific estimation i'd say the Blue Jays popped the ball up about 27 times, but it's possible they snuck a few extra outs in somehow. At the end of the day they produced just three runs on six hits.

Although the team had rallies in the 7th and 8th the game was over by then, so the only truly exciting moment on offence came in the first.

The Jays drew blood first by scoring a run created pretty much exclusively by the legs of Jose Reyes. Reyes led off the inning with a single, promptly stole a base and then scored from second on a Jose Bautista ground ball. Reyes had taken off for third on the play and then threw caution to wind sprinting for the plate and sliding in safely.

Other than that, as I said, yikes.

To add insult to injury the Jays were also dreadful defensively on the day.They had two errors and also a dropped catch from Colby Rasmus that likely should have been an error as well.

Also in the "bad news" column Jose Bautista was unable to get on base for the first time this season ending his impressive streak of consecutive games on base at 37 games.

Jays of the Day: No one has a big WPA number, but I'll give this one to Adam Lind given that he had a 2-for-3 game with a double and a walk and also Jose Reyes given his first inning heroics.

Suckage Jays: Literally every other player.

Note: I'm aware that Tom normally gives credit here to those who contributed most to the gamethread, but I don't know how to do that, except to count manually, which I really don't see myself doing. Anyone who stuck around the gamethread today is a downright hero in my book, so you are all winners.

Sergio Santos is going on the DL with a forearm issue of some sort. No word on who will take his roster spot.  I'm guessing Kevin Pillar but, knowing the Jays, it will be another pitcher or a  fourth catcher.

I'm hoping it is nothing serious with Sergio.

Adding to this...

The Jays claimed Kenny Wilson off waivers from the Twins. You'll remember the Twins took Wilson off waivers from the Jays back on April 24th. We can take bets on when the Jays lose him off waivers again. Wilson wasn't having a great time with the Twin's Double-A team, hitting just .195/.327/.268 in 11 games. 

Literally.

Welcome to the first of two parts of a sure to be recurring series of posts on the StrikeTracker and the oodles of data that I can pull from my ever-ballooning spreadsheet! Not all of the data will be useful, but it should at least all be interesting. This week we'll be looking at the Jays pitchers, and next time we'll look at the opposing pitchers / Jays hitters.

First, a refresher on the Slightly Less Unscientific StrikeTracker, or SLUST. If you want the full explanation, click here for my original post on the matter. If you are rightly terrified of all that text or are easily bored by reading methodology, then just know that I use magic and plagiarism to determine the approximate likelihood that a pitch in any given location will be called a strike, and then sum difference between expected called strikes and actual called strikes and break it down by team by game.

While the game by game breakdown is interesting (and depressing! so very depressing!) in its own right, we can harness the powers of Excel to tell us so much more and to try to identify some of the factors contributing to the Jays' most unfortunate called strike differential. What follows is a lot of charts and numbers, but simply bear in mind that the methodology is the same as the regular StrikeTracker, the results are just broken down by factors other than game date. I've managed to finagle the following breakdowns out of the BrooksBaseball pitchf/x outputs: by pitcher, pitch type, pitcher and pitch type, inning, handedness, and count.

A note about the charts that follow: Expected is the number of strikes expected by the StrikeTracker for a given breakdown, Gain/Loss is, unsurprisingly, the number of strikes gained (positive) or lost (negative), and # is the number of pitches to date that meet the criterion in question. The data below is accurate as of 6:00pm on Friday May 9, 2014.

By Pitcher

As we've been able to tell just from watching, R.A. Dickey and Brandon Morrow have been getting killed by the umpires, to the tune of more than 13 and 10 lost strikes respectively, with Morrow actually coming out worse on a per pitch basis. Somewhat less expected is that Dustin McGowan and J.A. Happ have been similarly punished. While Happ's net strikes per pitch is by far the worst on the team, he has only made four appearances so far (and his one start accounts for 50% of his batters faced), so it is probable that his results are skewed by a particularly unhelpful umpire or two. At the other end of the scale, only Neil Wagner, Marcus Stroman (SSS) and Chad Jenkins (super SSS) have had positive strike zone luck, and even then, only marginally so.

By Pitch Type

A note on MLBAM pitch classifications: The algorithm does not know the difference between 2-seamers and sinkers, and between curveballs and knucklecurves, so those are combined in the chart. Also, it thinks that one of every ~45 Dickey knuckleballs is an eephus. Other than Dickey's knuckleball, which I'll deal with later on, nothing really stands out here as being particularly noteworthy relative to our prior knowledge that the Jays pitchers have lost ~51 strikes to date. The slider has been the most unlucky pitch for non-Dickey Jays hurlers so far, which jibes with the collective knowledge that umpires have a harder time calling bendy stuff than they do fastballs. This is further illustrated by the chart below which lumps the pitch types together by speed and break.

Fastballs have resulted in .00257 more strikes per pitch than have off-speed pitches, which, themselves, have resulted in .01182(!) more strikes per pitch than have knuckleballs. While these numbers don't seem particularly large - and they're not - they do add up over the course of a 150 pitch game.

By Pitcher And Pitch Type

Now the good (read: sad) stuff. Below is every pitcher-pitch type combination that has resulted in a difference of -1.5 strikes or worse this season.

Umpires do not like R.A. Dickey. That, or they're really bad at following knuckleballs. Either way, that sounds like a pretty good argument for the use of our benevolent metal friends. Dickey has lost 15.3 strikes on 684 knuckleballs this season, which has cost him roughly 2.2 runs. If the umpires continue to squeeze him at that pace, he'll end up losing an entire win worth of strikes by the end of his usual 200+ innings!

Another interesting note here is that of all combinations with a sample of at least 25, six of the seven worst per-pitch differentials have come on fastballs. This is quite odd as fastballs tend to be easiest to call correctly, and, indeed, the Jays as a team have a better per-pitch differential on fastballs than they do on off-speed pitches despite the individual laggards being mostly fastballs. The pitchers and pitches in question are listed below for your viewing displeasure.

On the other end of the scale, we have only 6 combinations that have accumulated more than 1.5 additional strikes this season. Mark Buehrle, control master, leads the way with 2.9 strikes gained on his two-seamer, and the Dickey "fast"ball comes in behind that at +2.4. On a per-pitch basis, Aaron Loup laps the field with a +.049 on his change-up.

By Inning

Not a whole lot to say here. I plan to integrate the run value information with MjwW's post on the inning-by-inning RS/RA numbers once I work out the same breakdowns for opposing pitches. The 2nd and 4th innings have been the two unluckiest in both absolute and per-pitch terms so far, however neither inning was particularly poor for the Jays' pitchers per MjwW's post.

By Pitcher, Batter, And Matchup Handedness

As you can see, Blue Jays pitchers have been equally unlucky whether righty or witch who must be burned at the stake, with per-pitch numbers that are identical to the 5th decimal place. Looking at batter handedness, however, we see that opposing lefty hitters have been nearly twice as lucky as their righty counterparts. Below that are the breakdowns by pitcher-batter matchup, which don't seem to tell us a whole lot of anything but are mildly interesting nonetheless.

By Count

As you can see, it appears as though the Jays have been getting absolutely slaughtered on 0-1 counts, to the tune of 22 lost strikes and -.034 strikes per pitch, while having more ordinary levels of bad luck on most other counts. However, work by Matthew Carruth shows us that the size of the 50-50 zone changes with the count, shrinking by as much as 29% on an 0-2 count and growing by as much 11% on a 3-0 count. Accounting for these changes** by multiplying the number of expected strikes above by the size of the zone relative to the overall strike zone, we get the chart below:

Now, it becomes clear that the biggest issue for the Jays pitchers is not stingy umpires bringing the count to 1-1, but rather having first pitch strikes stolen away and being forced into 1-0 counts, in which the umpires have still been stingy with the Jays. With this method, Jays pitchers have had equal luck on 0-0 and 0-1 counts, with a per-pitch net of -.0178. Also noteworthy is that even after accounting for the smaller zone with a full count, the Jays have lost four should-be strikeouts to free passes. Every other count except for 1-0 and the 3-x (smallish samples) counts had per-pitch differentials below .001

**While this method incorrectly assumes that the strike zone shrinks and grows uniformly in all directions, it should still give us a reasonably close approximation of the effects of the changing size of the zone.

So What?

It's important to remember that the StrikeTracker only considers pitches called for balls or strikes, and excludes swings and misses. It is possible, if not likely, that, beyond the umpire impact on the count and pitchcounts, the smaller zone the Jays pitchers have been getting forces them to throw pitches slightly closer to the middle of the zone, compounding the negative effects of the lost strikes by also increasing the chance that opposing hitters will make solid contact. This effect would not be seen in the StrikeTracker, so if someone brave would like to try to figure out the impact, I'm happy to send them my file.

As I said at the top of the article, without doing a good deal more work I'm not terribly sure what use this data has from a decision making standpoint, but it definitely is interesting to look at and be sad about. If any of you in commentland have ideas to that effect, or have any ideas for other breakdowns I can include in future installments, shout 'em out.

A couple of left-handers square off in the series finale between the Blue Jays and Angels today as Toronto tries to salvage something (anything) from this four-game set. Mark Buehrle looks to continue his hot start against the reliable C.J. Wilson. The Californian has a 3.21 ERA this season with pretty fair peripherals so it's safe to say that Wilson is on track for another sub 4.00 ERA season (which would be his fifth in a row).

Wilson throws a ton of different pitches including a fastball, sinker, cutter, changeup, slider, and curveball. His curve is his most used off-speed pitch, although his slider is more successful with a whiffs/swing of 50% this season. With all these pitches, Wilson can basically hit any part of the plate with any type of movement, which makes things a wee bit unpredictable:

My internet is being silly so this might need to be cut short unfortunately.

Hopeful Lineup

1. Jose Reyes SS
2. Melky Cabrera LF
3. Jose Bautista RF
4. Edwin Encarnacion 1B
5. Dioner Navarro C
6. Juan Francisco DH
7. Brett Lawrie 3B
8. Colby Rasmus CF
9. Steve Tolleson 2B

Find The Link

Game In A Sentence

Former Marlins starter Josh Johnson was not able to face the Fish over the weekend in the Padres-Marlins series, and that had him thinking about the 2012 team and keeping them together. How would the team have done in 2013 and beyond?

The Miami Marlins of the 2012 season, for whatever reason, were an ill-fated squad that never achieved what it was designed to do. Marlins ownership rightfully saw it as a competitive shell, but it never came about the way it was supposed to. Injuries and disappointing play racked that team, and Miami decided to go in another direction after the disappointing campaign.

At least one former Marlin wishes that was not the case. Over the weekend, as the Fish visited the San Diego Padres, injured Padres starter Josh Johnson reflected back on that team and wished that it was given another chance beyond its lone season.

Johnson at the time wasn’t an outspoken critic of the trade like Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle. Friday, he expressed disappointment the group was not given more time to gel.

"There was no reason for me to be angry," he said. "I only wish that I had one more year to put it together. We got off to almost a whirlwind relationship with the [Showtime] show and everything was crazy. I think one more year together would have been good."

Johnson thought that one more year with the team would have been a stabilizing force for that core. It is worth wondering, in part because Jeffrey Loria and the front office gave up on the experiment so soon. Only three weeks after acquiring supposed help in the form of Carlos Lee, the Fish traded Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante away.

But what if they kept some of the 2012 core around for another attempt in 2013? Let's break down the 2012 roster and see who would have realistically stayed, who would have still been gone, and how that might affect 2013 and 2014.

John Buck: After the Fish got a second straight poor year from Buck, it was very likely that the team was planning on moving on from him. It is perfectly possible Miami would have found a taker for him, especially if they provided some reimbursement for the remaining $6 million left in the deal. This alternate Marlins team probably would have sought out a temporary replacement or acquired one via trade.

Logan Morrison: Miami would have still turned to Morrison, coming off a season shortened by knee surgery, at first base. It makes sense that the Marlins would give Morrison a final chance at his original position.

Omar Infante: The fate of Omar Infante in this world is linked to that of Anibal Sanchez, and it is worth discussing both together. The alternate version of the Fish probably should still make the trade that sent Sanchez and Infante to the Detroit Tigers.

Hanley Ramirez: Ramirez was one of the two stars of the franchise prior to the 2012 season, alongside Johnson. In this scenario, Loria and company remain loyal to Ramirez and retain him instead of trading him to Los Angeles for promising starter Nathan Eovaldi. The question then becomes whether Ramirez finds the hot streak that he found in 2013 with the Dodgers.

Jose Reyes: Reyes spent an entire healthy season in Miami before being traded to the Toronto Blue Jays. In this world, Miami never pulls off the Jays trade, so Reyes remains a long-term commitment for Miami. Perhaps Reyes even purchases the house Loria asked him to consider days before the trade was consummated.

Justin Ruggiano: The Marlins would have kept Ruggiano around after the hot 2012 season, just to see if he was a piece the team could use. Chances are that he occupies left field after having played other positions in 2012.

Emilio Bonifacio: Bonifacio suffered an injury-plagued 2012 campaign and failed to follow up on his surprisingly successful 2011 season. He would probably return as the team's primary center fielder.

Giancarlo Stanton: Still here, for now.

Josh Johnson: Johnson triggered this discussion, so he should still be here as the theoretical ace of the staff.

Mark Buehrle: Buehrle was the Marlins' most successful starter by the end of the 2012 season, so it figures he would see another season on the squad in this scenario.

Anibal Sanchez: Sanchez remains the only piece who would have likely left the ballclub regardless of ownership intention. Sanchez was a free agent at the end of the season, and the Marlins would have had to spend a large sum to re-sign him to a long-term deal. With the 2012 season going sour, Miami likely would have opted to find a trade regardless of competitive intention in 2013, and the deal with the Tigers for Jacob Turner, Rob Brantly, and Brian Flynn would still have been an attractive offer.

Ricky Nolasco: Nolasco stuck around in 2013, so he would do so in this scenario as well.

Heath Bell: Don't worry. he's gone in this scenario too. Miami wanted him gone immediately after 2012.

So how would this hybrid team have done? Assuming replacement-level performance and/or similar 2013 performance from call-ups as needed , here is how the starting group from 2013 would have done.

Other outfielders: 2.6 WAR

Total: 25.4 Wins Above Replacement

How good would a 25.4 WAR team be? Considering a replacement level of between 42 and 48 wins, you could expect a 25.4-WAR team to be worth about 70 wins. Miami would have saved about eight wins by not committing some of their trades and having everything that happened in 2013 on various different squads happen exactly as planned.

Of course, expecting everything to happen exactly the same way is probably foolish. Hanley Ramirez was not as happy in Miami, and it was probably affecting his performance a little bit. Johnson always pitched better in Miami, but his arm indeed appeared to be breaking down beginning the year before. Maybe Reyes does not break his ankle in Miami, but perhaps something else happens. Maybe Stanton does not have as bad a year as he does by himself in Miami.

All told, I imagine that this "projection" is better than the likely result would have been, and that this Miami team would have lost a game or two more than expected. Either way, it tends to show that the Marlins were perhaps right to forego spending more money by keeping this squad around, because it barely beat out the 2012 team in performance. Even in the best case scenario, this Marlins squad looks more like a .500 team, and that is if a number of players remain healthy throughout the season.

The club would then face some interesting questions in 2014. Reyes, Buehrle, and Stanton would remain long-term core members, along with Fernandez and Yelich at that point. But the rotation cupboard would be bare, with none of the prospects that were acquired in the Toronto trade coming in to bolster Miami's pitching depth. Would a rotation of Fernandez, Buehrle, and Andrew Heaney, along with a struggling Jacob Turner, be good enough? How would Miami approach Ramirez's final contract season? Would the club still sign Jarrod Saltalamacchia?

As always, this "what if?" is an interesting scenario and thought experiment, but it does appear that the Marlins' brass opted for the right baseball move to trade away the fatter contracts and rebuild depth. Miami is set up decently going forward beyond 2014, but would this theoretical 2012 continuation have been better? I would venture to say no, but what do you Fish Stripers think?

We've been waiting to hear the move the team would make to fill the roster spot left from Sergio Santos hitting the DL. Ben Nicholson-Smith is reporting that Jonathan Diaz and Chad Jenkins are on their way back from Buffalo, which means there is one more move coming. I imagine the Blue Jays will be sending Erik Kratz back to the minors (but then again, I never thought that Diaz would be coming back today. 

I really don't understand the whys of today's moves:

Jenkins comes up to get us back to 8 in the bullpen, because, of course, it is important that we have a guy or two that don't pitch for a couple of weeks at a time. I really don't get the love of the 8-man bullpen, but I might as well get used to it. We should have a contest to guess the number of innings Chad pitches before being sent back to Buffalo. I say 2. 

And why Diaz? We just sent him out because he couldn't hit. In 41 PA, as a Jay, he hit .176/.282/.206, numbers that make me hope he won't see any playing time. It isn't like he was tearing it up in Buffalo. In his 8 games there he has hit .000/.077/.000.  It isn't like he's a platoon candidate for Tolleson. 

If we wanted a middle infielder, Ryan Goins has had more than zero hits for Buffalo. He's doing pretty good, .298/.346/.362. I'd have picked Kevin Pillar, personally. 

So we are still without a real fourth outfielder (and Jose Bautista is still the backup in center field), but at least 2/3's of our bench aren't slow running catchers anymore. So that's a step up. If we have Lawrie playing 2B and Juan Francisco playing 3B (even though MLB pitchers have figured out how to pitch him), our bench would be Tolleson (4th outfielder, utility infielder, right-handed pinch hitter), Diaz (utility infielder, pinch runner) and Josh Thole.

A couple big names among closers have returned. Their teams and fantasy owners alike should rejoice.

Last season, my regular Monday piece was called the Injury Report. I would run through the bugaboos and stuff, and give my best bets on their long-term outlooks. I would also make dumb jokes and stuff, but that's kind of what I do.

Now, I'm not doing that piece anymore - in part because this:

and this:

are things that exist (those would be the Yahoo! and ESPN player news icons, FYI) - but if I were, this week would be a doozy of returns-from-injury. In the last little bit, Chris Davis, Billy Hamilton, Chase Headley, Doug Fister, and others have returned from various injuries. Also, and this is how I relate it to, you know, closers, two big(ish?) names also made it back this week.

The first, Aroldis Chapman, made his season debut Sunday after missing the first month. He pitched the ninth in the Reds' 4-1 win over the Rockies, striking out three and walking one. His control wasn't perfect - only 14 of 21 pitches for strikes - but dude hit 100-plus MPH on fifteen of those pitches. For the entire season, according to ESPN Stats & Info, Carlos Martinez was leading the way with 12 pitches of 100-plus. Basically, Chapman was Chapman.

Of course, Chapman was replacing Jonathan Broxton, who had been pretty lights out (five saves in six chances and a 1.00 ERA so far). I mean, it's Jonathan Broxton, so it wasn't going to last all season or anything, but he was getting the job done. That's why the other returning closer might, for his team, be a much bigger deal - Casey Janssen.

The Blue Jays activated Janssen before Sunday's game against the Angels. He didn't play in that one - they lost 9-3 - but considering the performances of the Toronto bullpen thus far this season, his return had to be eagerly anticipated. Blue Jays relievers have put up a 4.77 ERA thus far. The three pitchers who have gotten saves - Sergio Santos, Brett Cecil, and Aaron Loup - have put up a 5.52 ERA. Janssen, meanwhile, is coming off of a 2013 in which he put up a 2.74 ERA and 0.987 WHIP, and was 34 of 36 in save opportunities.

Chapman is the better pitcher, sure, but the Blue Jays are probably just as happy to have Janssen back as the Reds are to have their fireballer.

Anyway, this is the week's closer rankings. Remember, there are two lists here: The right-now rankings, which are liable to shift a good deal from week to week, and the rest-of-season rankings, which, heck, could move a lot too, but are less influenced by guys who might have lost their job for a short period.

Right-Now Rankings

Rest-Of-Season Rankings

More from Fake Teams

Follow @faketeamsFollow @SBNationMLB

• Post Draft: Rookie Running Back Rankings
• Two-Start Pitchers: Week 7 (May 12-18)
• The Sweetener: The Art of the Bail Trade
• EPL Fantasy Preview: Match Week 38
• Streamer Report: Sunday's Streaming Pitcher Options

The Blue Jays still haven't been swept this season!

Angels 3 Blue Jays 7

I picked the right game of this series to watch. Glad I missed the first three.

This one was fun from the start:

• Jose Bautista hit a 3-run homer in the first. 
• Brett Lawrie crushed a 2-run shot in the 6th. I don't remember seeing Brett hit a ball that far before. 
• And we got 2 more runs in the 8. Juan Francisco singled with the bases loaded. 

Mark Buehrle had another successful start. He allowed a lot of base runners. He gave up 6 hits and 5 walks in 6 inning, but the Angels only got 2 runs off him. The defense did help him out by turning a couple of double plays. 

Buehrle also got some help from Steve Delabar, who came in with 2 on and none out and struck out Mike Trout and then got Albert Pujols to hit into a double play. Delabar did give up a home run in the 8th to C.J. Cron but that was the only hit off in 2 innings. 

Casey Janssen pitched a drama free 9th for his first appearance of the season. 

Our offense made a reappearance. We had 9 hits and 4 walks. Bautista was 3 for 4, with the home runs and 2 bullets hit right at, and through, infielders. Everyone else in the lineup had 1 hit except Dioner Navarro (0 for 3, with a walk and 2 k), Colby Rasmus (0 for 3, 1 k) and Jonathan Diaz (0 for 4, 2 k).

Colby left the game in the 7th inning, with hamstring tightness, causing all sorts of moves. Bautista went to CF, Steve Tolleson went to RF, Lawrie went to 2B and Francisco came into the game to play 3B. I imagine a roster move is in our near future, but they might wait until morning to see how Colby feels after a night's sleep. 

Jays of the Day are Delabar (.176 WPA), Bautista (.233), and Lawrie (.142). I'll give an honorable mention to Buehrle. 

No Suckage Jays. 

Our, very pleasent, GameThread had 876. We had a tie at the top of the leaderboard, but I'm giving the win to e&n4e because he didn't annoy me with Jayson Nix comments all game. So there, I stuck my tongue out in your general direction. 

Are you getting a Brohio bobblehead? Plus Clippers catcher Roberto Perez battles Bell's Palsy.

Indians v Blue Jays

Cleveland Indians at Toronto Blue Jays - May 13, 2014 | MLB.com Preview - Gameday preview

BOB ELLIOTT'S TOP 5 Jays-Indians memories | Blue Jays | Sports | Toronto Sun

Tribe News

Hal Bodley: Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona making right moves with bullpen | MLB.com: News - "I didn't know there was a corner to turn," Francona replied. "We just had a bad road trip a while back and have been digging ourselves out of it. We're not hitting on all cylinders yet, but playing better with more confidence."

For Cleveland Indians hurler Danny Salazar, it's never too early to grow up | cleveland.com - Profile of Danny Salazar.

Clippers: Bell’s palsy catches Perez off guard | The Columbus Dispatch - Roberto Perez struggles against more than calling a good game.

Bob Feller Museum in Iowa facing Rapid decline - Chronicle-Telegram - Update on Feller Museum.

Around the Horn

Orioles to recall right-handed reliever Preston Guilmet from Triple-A Norfolk - baltimoresun.com - The Orioles will recall right-handed reliever Preston Guilmet from Triple-A Norfolk on Monday to provide the club with some bullpen depth, according to an industry source.

Let’s Explain Eric Hosmer’s WAR | FanGraphs Baseball - Don't tell Hammy, but Hosmer is a bad baserunner.

Of course you want to get a "Brohio" bobblehead | HardballTalk - "BRO-H!" "I-O!"

Jose Fernandez expected to require season-ending elbow surgery | HardballTalk - Jose Fernandez has a right elbow sprain and is expected to undergo season-ending surgery.

Baseball draft scouting is getting better. | SportsonEarth.com : Chris Cwik Article - The draft in any sport will never lead to a perfect rate of success, if only because men who are generally between 18 and 22 have a high amount of volatility. But in baseball, and particularly due to the work of Baseball America, prospect hunting is improving.

Update: I thought it would be Chad Jenkins going down, but we have to keep the 8-man bullpen, so it is Jonathan Diaz that doesn't have to unpack. I hope he gets 2 days worth of per diems, even if he was only there for 24 hours. 

Shi Davidi tells us that the Blue Jays are about to call up Kevin Pillar from Buffalo, to give us someone that can play center field while Colby Rasmus melds his tight hamstring. I am happy that we won't be starting Jose Bautista in CF. 

Pillar, as you likely know, has a 26 game on base streak going in Buffalo. He is hitting .305/.344/.461 for the Bisons. In May he is hitting .392/.418/.627. You'll remember that he hit just .206/.250/.333 in 36 games for Toronto last year. I'm glad he is getting another shot with the team, though it is too bad that Colby has to get injured for it to happen. Maybe we could keep a fourth outfielder around to spell the other outfielders occasionally. Maybe if they didn't have to play every day we wouldn't see so many hamstring issues?

No word on who is going down to make room for Pillar (I hope Chad Jenkins hasn't unpacked).  Gibby hinted that Colby might need a stint on the DL but I don't think that's what they will be doing, at least not right away. 

Colby was hitting .222/.266/.489 in 37 games but turned it on in May, hitting .286/.318/.714. 

The Jays almost made it a full 24 hours without a roster move. 

Justin Masterson was perfect the first time through the Toronto order, but decidedly imperfect after that.

Game 39: Blue Jays 5, Indians 4

Box Score

On Sunday the Indians gave up three late runs but hung on to win by one, but tonight the cleat was on the other foot, as they scored three in the seventh to get within one run but couldn't push the tying run across.

The pitching matchup tonight was a replay of last year's Opening Day, with Justin Masterson opposing R.A. Dickey. After a disappointing 2013 campaign, the 2012 NL Cy Young winner has started this season with a lot less attention than the previous one, but of late he's started to pitch better. And through six innings, it looked like he might easily finish the game. The Indians struck first with a run in the third (after the first two batters of the inning were retired), but after that Dickey dominated the Indians, allowing just one hit from the fourth to the sixth.

Masterson was dominant in the first three innings, retiring the first nine batters he faced. And he did it with ease, finishing the first three innings having thrown fewer than 30 pitches. But then, the second time through the lineup, the Jays started to hit him, especially the left-handed hitters. Switch-hitter Jose Reyes led off the fourth with a triple, and tied the game when he scored a sacrifice fly. The next inning left-handed hitter Juan Francisco gave Toronto the lead with a bomb to the upper deck beyond the right field wall. And in the sixth, the left-handed hitter Adam Lind doubled into the left field gap, driving home two more. And Juan Francisco followed that up with a run-scoring double of his own. Masterson couldn't finish the sixth, leaving the game with the Indians down 5-1. Josh Outman would prevent the Jays from adding to their 5-1 lead, and that almost became a key play in the game.

But the Indians weren't out of it yet, thanks to some shoddy defense. After Asdrubal Cabrera singled to begin the top of the seventh, David Murphy hit what looked to be an easy double play ball to the second baseman, but the ball glanced off Brett Lawrie's glove and into shallow right field. After Yan Gomes walked, Dickey hit Lonnie Chisenhall on the leg on the very next pitch to cut the lead to 5-2. That was it for Dickey, and in came Aaron Loup with the bases loaded and still nobody out. Loup got Mike Aviles to hit a shallow fly ball that couldn't score the runner from third, and it appeared that the Indians had blown their big opportunity. But Michael Bourn got a huge single off the southpaw Loup, and Nick Swisher drove home another run on a sacrifice fly. Then Michael Brantley, who sitting on an 11-game hitting streak stepped to the plate with runner in scoring position. Brantley hit a line drive back up the middle, but the ball was right at Jose Reyes, to caught the ball to end the seventh.

The Indians threatened in the eighth as well, thanks to a Carlos Santana single and a passed ball by Toronto catcher Josh Thole (who of course was flawless while catching Dickey's knuckleballs). Brett Cecil struck out both Asdrubal Cabrera and David Murphy, but Yan Gomes lined a single into left field. Santana tried to score from second, but left fielder Melky Cabrera made a perfect throw to the plate and Santana was tagged out, preserving a 5-4 Toronto lead.

The Indians kept it a one-run game thanks to Scrabble and CC Lee, but the Indians could manage only a Michael Bourn single in the ninth off closer Casey Janssen.

Win-Expectancy Chart

Source: FanGraphs

Roll Call

Game Thread

Total Comments: 280

Number of Commenters: 23

This year's first-year player draft takes place June 5th through 7th, and the Toronto Blue Jays have both the 9th and 11th picks in the first round. Will the Blue Jays snap up a future star, or even two?

If you were even remotely interested in the MLB draft back in 2011, you've probably heard of the name Tyler Beede, the guy who got drafted in the first round by the Blue Jays, but wouldn't take their money and went on to pitch for Vanderbilt. Some other names a Jays fan might recognize, like Aaron Nola (pictured), Luke Weaver and Andrew Suarez, also find their way onto top 100 draft prospect lists. They're all players that the Blue Jays tried to sign in later rounds of the 2011 draft but went on to college to pitch quite successfully for their respective universities. However, only Beede and Nola seem to have a chance to be drafted as high as 9th or 11th overall, and be "reunited" with the Blue Jays.

The reason that the Blue Jays have two high picks this year is of course because they failed to sign last year's first-round pick Phil Bickford. Also, because the last two seasons have been bitter disappointments and MLB's draft system consoles fans of underachieving teams with the hope that things might get better in a few years. Now it's up to the Blue Jays and their team of scouts to make sure the chance of a brighter future is increased. And given that the experts are saying that this year's draft is quite deep, it should be possible for the Jays to make some good selections.

What we know about the Blue Jays drafting strategies

There have been four drafts since Alex Anthopoulos took over, and the change in draft philosophy has been radical. No longer do the Blue Jays favor college players heavily, as they did under J.P. Ricciardi (Jenkins, Arencibia). Instead, it seems that AA and his staff have focused almost entirely on high school pitchers, with the occasional college pitcher or high school hitter thrown in. The Jays have avoided drafting college position players almost entirely, although it has to be said the good college hitters seem to be a very rare commodity in the last few years.

What the Blue Jays seem to love most of all are high risk, high reward players. Whether the (extra) risk is there because these players have just recently popped up on the radar of scouts, or because they have recently underperformed despite a good track record of success, or even because they are injured, the Blue Jays will gamble on them if they see high upside. The chances of the Blue Jays taking a player with questionable defensive abilities are very low. The chance that they draft a Boras client seems almost zero. However, the chance that the Jays pick up some players that nobody expected them to pick is pretty high. Luckily, the Jays pick so high up in the draft that there is still a (somewhat) manageable number of players to consider.

What we know about the draft class

Basically every expert thinks this draft class is deep on pitching, especially from the college side. The "big three" of this draft are all pitchers, and their names are Carlos Rodon (LHP, NC State University), Brady Aiken (LHP, California HS) and Tyler Kolek (RHP, Texas HS). While they are all impressive, they don't seem to be s highly rated as last year's top three of Appel, Gray and Bryant. The depth of this class is perceived to exceed that of last year's though, and while that won't help the Astros, Marlins or White Sox much, it'll be good news for the other teams, especially one that picks twice in the first round like the Jays.

While it's possible that Rodon, Kolek and/or Aiken drop a little bit down, it seems highly unlikely that any of them will be available at the number 9 pick for the Jays to pounce on. However, there's a lot of other talent that can be considered for the fourth spot and beyond, and any of those players could drop down as far as number nine. So while that's exciting, it could well be agonizing for the Blue Jays scouting staff to have so many different options to consider. Then again, isn't that their job? Anyway, my point was that spots 4-X are very much an uncertain area. Two guys that might not get there are Nick Gordon, a high school shortstop and son of Tom, brother of Dee (wait, when did this turn into a story written by Tolkien?), and definitely a guy that fits the Blue Jays' draft philosophy. The other, high school catcher-but-probably-an-outfielder-in-the-future Alex Jackson is apparently a Boras client, which would seemingly rule him out as a Blue Jays selection anyway.

Besides Jackson and Gordon, the main players whose names get floated around for the first 15 picks are college players, and as we've established earlier, those don't get picked by the Jays all that often. The one highly rated high school pitcher frequently mentioned in the Jays' area of the draft goes by the name of Grant Holmes (RHP), but he isn't the prototypical Blue Jays high school draftee with lots of projectability. Touki Toussaint (also RHP) fits that profile more, but his delivery scares me, as do the reports of him being more of a thrower than a pitcher, which is not something I associate with recent Blue Jays draft picks at all. Are there any prep bats besides Jackson and Gordon worth mentioning? Well I suppose I should mention Michael Gettys, a center fielder who is very much a tools guy with big questions about his ability to hit. We know the Jays like those kind of guys (drafted D.J. Davis, traded for Anthony Gose) but will they value Gettys as high as 11th or even 9th overall?

On to the college side of things, where three hitters should be highlighted who play all of the three most premium defensive positions: catcher, shortstop and center field. Let's start with the center fielder, Bradley Zimmer, who is the brother of Kyle, a pitching prospect for the Royals. Bradley is praised for his tools, but there are two big question marks: one is if he is truly a center fielder (most seem to think yes), and the other is his ability to hit, as his ability to make contact has been underwhelming both this year and especially last year in the Cape Cod league, and he doesn't draw that many walks or hit for a lot of power (yet?). Keith Law really likes the guy though, I heard he ranked Zimmer 5th. Max Pentecost is the opposite of Zimmer in the sense that he crushed the Cape Cod league. Much like Zimmer though, he hits his way on base rather than draw walks to get there, and the power isn't the greatest but could improve (or so at least one scout once said). Last but not least there's Trea Turner, who was highly ranked coming into the season as a speedy shortstop who could hit, but he was disappointing early on this year. Lately, he's been on a bit of a hot streak though, and his numbers now look very much like Zimmer's and Pentecost's, except with more walks but less hits on balls in play, as well as the least questions asked about staying at his defensive position. Keith Law is apparently not very high on Turner at all, ranking him 22nd.

The quality of the college pitching is a big reason for the plethora of options the Blue Jays have at #9 and #11. Aaron Nola is the "safe" pick, a control artist who is the closest to major league ready, a description that will have Blue Jays fans screaming "not another Deck McGuire". But then, there's also the story of Mike Leake, and Jim Callis apparently thinks Nola has more upside than Leake. There's also Tyler Beede, of course, our old friend who would not take the money. Beede is almost the opposite of Nola in that he shows great stuff but his command has been lacking. It's improving, but still lacking. Then there's a trio of southpaws named Brandon Finnegan, Kyle Freeland and Sean Newcomb who all seem to be in a similar range, which is below that of Beede and Nola generally. Finnegan has faced the best opposition of the three, getting great results. He did recently miss time with shoulder inflammation, and his delivery is quite scary. Freeland has faced lesser competition, but also with great results. Freeland was also very dominant in the Cape Cod league against better opposition, but he works at a somewhat lower velocity than Finnegan and Newcomb. Speaking of Newcomb, the guy is loved by scouts, but his results are unimpressive in comparison, and the level of competition he has faced is very low. This is mainly because of issues with command, so if the Blue Jays think they can improve Newcomb's command, they could very well bet on the upside of a college pitcher rather than a high school pitcher this time around.

Last but not least there's Jeff Hoffman, a right-handed pitcher from East Carolina University. Hoffman's a pitcher with great stuff and projectability, and he was supposed to go in the first four picks before going down with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. Hoffman's track record was not great, as he only recently started getting great results, but with his strong three pitch mix with a fastball in the mid-90s, coming from a 6-foot-4 frame that likely hasn't been filled out yet, picking up the injured Hoffman will be very hard for the Blue Jays to resist. Cast your mind back to 2011, when the Jays drafted John Stilson, who was supposed to be a first round pick but dropped due to injury, or to 2012 when Matt Smoral experienced the exact same thing. Last year the obligatory "injury casaulty pick" was Patrick Murphy (3rd round), who was still recovering from Tommy John surgery at that time. Everything we know about Jeff Hoffman and the Blue Jays points to the East Carolina pitcher being a favorite for getting selected by the Jays with either the 9th or 11th overall pick. But this is the MLB draft, and the Blue Jays, so what do I know? Indeed, I know nothing.

With Jose Fernandez on the disabled list, the Miami Marlins have promoted prospect Anthony DeSclafani, who will make his major league debut Wednesday night in Los Angeles.

After Jose Fernandez was placed on the disabled list Monday and will miss the rest of the season after having Tommy John surgery, the Miami Marlins on Tuesday night announced that pitching prospect Anthony DeSclafani will make his major league debut on Wednesday night in the final game against the Dodgers. Juan Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel was among the first to report the news.

DeSclafani to start Wednesday for #Marlins. MLB debut

— Juan C. Rodriguez (@JCRMarlinsbeat) May 14, 2014

Andrew Heaney, one of Miami's several minor league pitching prospects, last pitched on Sunday and wasn't expected to be promoted because of his youth. The Marlins could have gone with options that were already on the roster, but both Brad Hand and Kevin Slowey have struggled upon being inserted into the starting rotation.

Desclafani, who pitched for Manager MIke Redmond in Single A while Redmond was a manager in the Toronto system, has gone 3-4 with a 4.19 ERA in eight starts at Double-A Jacksonville. In 43 innings pitched, he has posted a 3.17 FIP and has walked ten.

Miami acquired Desclafani in the twelve player trade with the Blue Jays. The Marlins are still looking for a quality start on the current roadtrip, and are confident Desclafani can thrive in his debut against a solid offensive team in Los Angeles.

"I know in Toronto, he was definitely a guy they didn’t want to lose," Redmond said. "He was kind of that guy they thought was under the radar, but obviously he wasn’t. I thought it was a great addition to that trade, picking him up."

Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/05/14/4115570/miami-marlins-pitcher-anthony.html#storylink=cpy

Sitting at 20-20, the Blue Jays try to break .500 tonight as they face off (again) against Corey Kluber. Dustin McGowan gets another start for the Blue Jays as they try to figure out what their best group of starting pitchers is. Toronto faced Kluber in Cleveland last month and roughed him up a bit, scoring four earned runs in 6.2 innings, which was enough to win the game. Since then he's lowered his ERA from 5.40 to 3.48 on the back of some monster games against Kansas City, Chicago White Sox, and the Tampa Bay Rays. The games against Kansas City and Chicago featured strikeout totals of 11 and 13, so Corey has put it together a little bit since we last saw him.

Nothing crazy his changed in his pitch selection, although the use of his cutter has increased steadily as the season has gone on (as well as his sinker becoming a four-seamer for one game):
He's still a sinker, cutter, slider pitcher and the Blue Jays should expect nothing straight from the right-hander tonight who has quietly become the Indians' best starting pitcher so far this season.

Just watch this:

Hopeful Lineup

This lineup is pretty great.

1. Jose Reyes SS
2. Melky Cabrera LF
3. Jose Bautista RF
4. Adam Lind DH
5. Edwin Encarnacion 1B
6. Juan Francisco 3B
7. Dioner Navarro C
8. Brett Lawrie 2B
9. Kevin Pillar CF

Find The Link

Game In A Sentence

The NEXUS Card, which greatly reduces time and pain at the border and at airports, has easily been the best $50 purchase I have made lately. With the card, which is valid for five years, I am able to enter an expedited line in Canadian and United States airports, skip immigration lines in the two countries, and use dedicated lanes (and bridges) between the two countries.

I truly hope Erik Kratz and Chad Jenkins have signed up for it.

On Wednesday afternoon, the Blue Jays announced four transactions that affects their active roster. Catcher Erik Kratz was recalled to replace Dioner Navarro, who was placed on the bereavement / family emergency list, and reliever Neil Wagner was recalled to replace Chad Jenkins, who is quickly becoming 2014's Mike McCoy.

C ERIK KRATZ and RHP NEIL WAGNER have been recalled from @BuffaloBisons. RHP CHAD JENKINS has been optioned to AAA

— Blue Jays-Official (@BlueJays) May 14, 2014

The @BlueJays have placed C DIONER NAVARRO on the bereavement/family medical emergency list effective today.

— Blue Jays-Official (@BlueJays) May 14, 2014

Navarro will be required to remain inactive for a minimum of three days, but must be re-activated after a week. We wish all the best to him and his family. Kratz was just optioned a couple days ago, but the 10-day rule does not apply in this instance.

Wagner, being a Reliever With Options, was sent down to Buffalo on April 26, despite putting up fine numbers with the Blue Jays. During his latest minor league stint, he made just three appearances with the Bisons around a trip onto the minor league seven-day disabled list in early May.

Jenkins, also a Reliever With Options, has already been involved in seven transactions this season:

• 2014-03-16: Toronto Blue Jays optioned RHP Chad Jenkins to Buffalo Bisons.
• 2014-04-26: Toronto Blue Jays recalled RHP Chad Jenkins from Buffalo Bisons.
• 2014-05-02: Toronto Blue Jays optioned RHP Chad Jenkins to Buffalo Bisons.
• 2014-05-03: Toronto Blue Jays recalled RHP Chad Jenkins from Buffalo Bisons.
• 2014-05-08: Toronto Blue Jays optioned RHP Chad Jenkins to Buffalo Bisons.
• 2014-05-12: Toronto Blue Jays recalled RHP Chad Jenkins from Buffalo Bisons.
• 2014-05-14: Toronto Blue Jays optioned RHP Chad Jenkins to Buffalo Bisons.

Miami Marlins boosters and baseball fans in general have to be upset about the loss of ace right-hander Jose Fernandez to Tommy John surgery. But while fans and fantasy owners can whine and complain, the Marlins front office has to figure out an actual solution. Stepping into Fernandez's shoes tonight is rookie right-hander Anthony DeSclafani.

DeSclafani hasn't received a lot of attention outside of Marlins circles, but he's actually a very interesting prospect. He was originally drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in the sixth round in 2011, from the University of Florida. He was an erratic reliever in college, posting an ERA over 7.00 in 2010 for example, but in pro ball he became a successful starter, posting a 3.37 ERA, going 11-3, with a 92/25 K/BB in 123 innings in the Midwest League in '12. He was traded to the Marlins in the huge Jose Reyes/Mark Buehrle/Josh Johnson deal.

He posted a 1.67 ERA with a 53/9 K/BB in 54 innings for High-A Jupiter last year, followed by a 3.36 ERA with a 62/14 K/BB in 75 innings after moving up to Double-A Jacksonville. He had a 4.19 ERA with a 38/10 K/BB in 43 innings for Jacksonville this year.

Listed at 6-2, 195, and born on April 18, 1990, DeSclafani was a fastball-oriented reliever in college but the Jays refined his secondary pitches and made him a starter; the Marlins continued with that policy. He’s made good strides with his slider and changeup, giving him three solid pitches, and his command is also an asset. Although he gets his heater up to 95-96 MPH, he’s not generally overpowering in terms of strikeouts and is more of a ground ball type.

He's being promoted to the majors from Double-A with no intervening Triple-A exposure, so it will be interesting to see how he adjusts. DeSclafani doesn't have the upside of Andrew Heaney, Miami's top prospect, but he could be a solid inning-eater.